With the rankings for position players complete, I’ll turn my attention to the mound, starting with my rankings for starting pitchers.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/IP is the basis. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Pitching is always tricky to evaluate. It seems like there are always breakout pitchers who made a tweak to their arsenal or are suddenly throwing 95 after an offseason trip to Driveline. There are always the established options who can be reliable, but pitchers break down more often than any other position. That means investing a large portion of your salary cap into your pitching staff will always carry some amount of risk.

To be fair, there’s great reward if you choose to pay up for the best pitchers on the market. There’s about 25-30 guys who are projected to cross the 5 P/IP threshold and a handful who might even get up to 6 P/IP. The risk is so much greater in these higher tiers; the best pitcher on the planet has thrown just 156.1 innings over the last two years. They were extremely high quality innings, but it’s an open question whether those few innings were worth the high market price deGrom commanded.

Luckily, if you choose to pass on the best pitchers on the market, there’s a large middle tier that you can build a perfectly productive pitching staff with. There’s probably 40-50 guys in this group that have good projections but won’t break the bank to roster. Some of them even have the upside to push into the higher tiers if things go right in 2023. This is where I like to build the bulk of my staff.

Once you’re past those top 70-80 pitchers, you’re getting into the lower tiers where all sorts of warts and question marks abound. Here, you’re simply searching for potential breakouts and bounce backs. There are a bunch of pitchers in these lower tiers who will give you bulk innings without good ratios. These guys will provide consistent points but their ceilings are usually capped pretty low; they’re good options if you need to mitigate some of the risk you might have taken on with some of your higher priced pitchers.

The other nice thing about playing in these lower tiers is that you can churn through pitchers pretty quickly if they’re not working out. Chasing after the newest breakout or surprising rookie is much easier if you don’t have to jettison a higher priced player to open up a roster spot. There are always guys on the waiver wire who will be useful for your team during the season, the trick is to quickly determine which ones to pursue because they’re actually productive and which ones to pass on because they’re getting lucky or on a hot streak.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Cristian Javier – Javier finally received the opportunity to pitch out of the rotation on a full-time basis and he produced a breakout season for the Astros. He struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced in the regular season and was nearly unhittable in the postseason. He excels at generating whiffs with an elite fastball that he regularly locates at the top of the zone. But unlike some pitchers who suffer from a home run problem when they try to elevate their fastballs, Javier manages to avoid barrels too. Just a third of the balls put in play against him were hard hit and just 7.2% of them were barreled up last year. That’s a pretty incredible pair of skills and now he doesn’t have to worry about his role moving forward.

Garrett Whitlock – Like Javier, Whitlock’s usage in 2023 should be much clearer; all signs indicate he’ll spend the entire season in the rotation after getting bounced to the bullpen after suffering a hip injury. I wrote about Whitlock’s potential as a starter last spring but here’s the tl;dr version of it: he possesses three pitches that generate elite results and developed a changeup as a third pitch last year to help him work through lineups multiple times. There is some injury risk here — his hip still isn’t right and he might miss Opening Day as a result — but if he’s healthy and spends the entire season as a starter, he should produce fantastic results for your squad.

Patrick Sandoval – Sandoval’s fastball has been the one thing holding him back from truly ascending to join the game’s elite pitchers. He possesses one of the best changeups in baseball and pairs that with a devastating slider. On July 2, he started throwing his sinker more often and reduced his usage of his four-seamer. His strikeout rate ticked up, his walk rate fell, and his ERA and FIP both improved. You can read more about this shift in pitch mix in my deep dive from last summer.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Gerrit Cole – For Cole, everything comes down to his alarming home run rates. He’s still running fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratios and possesses one of the most dominant pitch arsenals in the game. Unfortunately, he’s been increasingly prone to allowing a few too many dingers since joining the Yankees. His HR/FB% over the last three years is 15.8%, the third highest in baseball among qualified starters. It’s a big reason why his xFIP is nearly 40 points lower than his actual FIP during that period and why it was 70 points lower in 2022. Home runs are pitcher killers in Ottoneu and I’m pretty weary of Cole for that reason alone.

Sandy Alcantara – Alcantara turned in a phenomenal season last year to rightfully earn the NL Cy Young award. Unfortunately, a lot of his value in Ottoneu last year came from his league leading 228.2 innings pitched. That kind of workload is nearly unheard of in the modern era and it really helped him outpace his peers in raw points. But when you look at his peripherals, specifically his strikeout rate, he’s clearly a step behind the best pitchers in the league. You can pay for his bulk innings in the hope that he pushes past 200 IP again, but that seems like a risky bet considering how often pitchers breakdown. On a pure rate basis, Alcantara sits behind the pitchers in the highest tier.

Robbie Ray – Ray’s issues mirror Cole’s; he was one of the two pitchers who ran a higher HR/FB% than Cole over the last three seasons. To make matters worse, he dealt with a drop in fastball velocity last year which affected his entire repertoire. The good news was that he maintained the gains in control that allowed him to win the Cy Young in 2021, but his overall performance took a dip after joining the Mariners. Like Cole, it really all comes down to his home run rate and the significant damage it will do to his ability to produce consistently in the format.

We’ll wrap up my position player rankings with a look at the outfield.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

NOTE: I’ve included Util-only players in my OF rankings. In general, they’ll be listed at the bottom of whatever tier they’re placed in because of the lack of positional flexibility. In addition, Shohei Ohtani is listed in a tier as if he were only a batter — obviously he provides a ton of value as a pitcher as well and he would be my top ranked player in Ottoneu if I listed his combined value.

In Ottoneu, you’re afforded five starting spots for your outfielders. That creates a situation where the position is simultaneously deep and shallow. The top of the position is filled with superstars but you’ll be able to find solid production all the way down into the middle tiers. There does seem to be a pretty significant drop off once you get 40 deep which means you’ll likely be filling out the last couple of spots in your outfield with flawed players.

Having deep rosters and daily lineups are definitely benefits as you try and find five viable outfielders to start. I’ve found that platoons work especially well at this position. Players like Jesse Winker, Joc Pederson, and Josh Naylor all have much higher value in Ottoneu because you can really squeeze out as much value out of them when they’re facing the platoon advantage. Personally, I like to try and fill at least three of my OF spots with full-time, consistent contributors, and then grab a handful of players I can platoon.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Michael Harris II – I understand the trepidation surrounding Harris. He only played in 43 games above High-A before making the leap up to the big leagues, he really struggled against left-handed pitching, and his surface level plate discipline metrics looked pretty poor in his rookie season. Despite those nits to pick, Harris was a genuine revelation last year. His power surpassed anything he was able to do in the minor leagues and his underlying batted ball peripherals support his newfound power profile. A mid-season swing change after being called up helped him unlock that tool. And the approach at the plate? It too improved as the season went on and he became more settled in at the game’s highest level; he cut his chase rate from around 50% in late-June to just over 35% by the end of the season and improved his in-zone contact rate correspondingly. Those adjustments on the fly as a 21-year-old really speak to his talent, coachability, and drive to succeed.

Teoscar Hernández – It feels like a lot of the concerns surrounding Hernández involve his move to Seattle where he’ll play his home games in the pitcher’s paradise that is T-Mobile Park. Just comparing the park factors, his new home isn’t nearly as bad as its reputation for right-handed batters; Rogers Centre has a factor of 106 for right-handed home runs to 102 for T-Mobile Park. The real issue for batters in Seattle is finding hits that don’t fly over the fences. Hernández certainly has the power to overcome whatever ballpark he calls home anyway. His exit velocities and hard hit and barrel rates all sit in the top 5% of baseball and have for the last three seasons. Perhaps you’re looking at his 129 wRC+, a three-year low since his breakout in 2020. Hernández strained an oblique early in the season and missed about a month on the IL, but he didn’t really get right until a few weeks after being activated. From June 1 onwards, he posted a 146 wRC+ with 23 of his 25 home runs. That beat his career-best mark he posted in 2020 and indicates he was just as productive last year once he got healthy.

Hunter Renfroe – At this point in his career, Renfroe’s power should be unquestioned. He’s blasted 153 home runs over the last six seasons and possesses a career isolated power of .247. The reason I’m so high on him is because he’s seemingly figured out the swing-and-miss issues that plagued him earlier in his career. Over the last two seasons, he’s cut his strikeout rate from 28% during his first five seasons to just under 23%. The biggest difference has been a significant improvement to his overall contact rate. He’s also gotten a little more swing happy with that change in approach, which has helped him put more balls in play with his better bat-to-ball skills. With his power, that’s definitely a good thing and it’s a big reason why his wRC+ jumped up to a career-high 124 last year.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Randy Arozarena – Arozarena is almost certainly a better 4×4 or 5×5 player than he is an Ottoneu contributor. His power and speed combo is perfectly suited for those formats that reward stolen bases. In the FanGraphs points format, his speed isn’t nearly as valuable a tool and his power actually isn’t all that impressive. For one, more than half of his batted balls were put on the ground last year. Second, when he does elevate, his hard hit and barrel rates are merely average; he outperformed his expected slugging by 63 points in 2022. Third, he’s notoriously streaky, with significant periods of abysmal production throughout a season. If I’m paying more than $20 for an outfielder, I want a little more consistency and a higher ceiling than Arozarena can provide.

Steven Kwan – The argument against Kwan is somewhat similar to Arozarena; he’s a better 4×4 or 5×5 player than he is a points league accumulator. Granted, Kwan (5.28 P/G) just outproduced Arozarena (5.22 P/G) in his rookie season, but leagues that value runs, average, and stolen bases are where Kwan shines. In Ottoneu, Kwan’s contact-heavy approach leaves too much to chance on all those balls he puts in play. That was the story over his first two months in the big leagues where he put up a .259 BABIP and a 105 wRC+. Without any power to speak of, he’s just too reliant on getting hits to fall to produce points consistently when his batted balls are falling into gloves instead.

Oscar Gonzalez – Gonzalez came out of nowhere to post a 122 wRC+ in 91 games last year and was a postseason hero for the Guardians. The power was just a continuation of a breakout season in 2021 where he blasted 31 home runs across two minor league levels. But the plate discipline leaves so much to be desired. His 48.4% chase rate ranked third-highest among all batters with at least 300 plate appearances. It’s a testament to his bat-to-ball ability in two-strike counts that his strikeout rate sat below 20%. But such an aggressive approach means that he’s walking a knife’s edge, and if all those swings start coming up empty, he could find himself cratering.

We’ll finish up the infield rankings with a look at third base.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

The contours of third base are pretty similar to second base: a group of really strong contributors at the top of the position with a pretty significant drop off after the first eight names. If you’re looking for a player to provide consistent production throughout the year, targeting one of those top names has to be a priority. There are a few other guys who are also eligible at one of the middle infield positions who aren’t listed above who would fit into the top tiers at this position (Gunnar Henderson, Max Muncy, etc.), but you’re probably better off using them at 2B or SS unless you have multiple options at that respective position.

Behind the top guys at the position, there is a small group of mid-tier third baseman made up of older veterans and younger prospects. Once you get past the top 14 or so players, you’ll get your standard mix of young prospects, older veterans, and part-time players. Because the cliff comes so quickly, if you miss out on one of the top options, you’ll want to try and get a handful of lower tier guys to ensure you have contingency plans in case of emergency.

One Guy I Like More than Chad
Matt Chapman – Chapman bounced back a bit in his first season in Toronto after a dismal season in 2021. His overall line was still well below his two outstanding seasons in 2018–19, but there are signs he’s working his way back towards that elite production again. Most importantly, his plate discipline improved significantly in 2022. He cut his overall swing rate by three points back to where it was earlier in his career, and enjoyed corresponding improvements to his chase rate, swinging strike rate, and contact rate. None of these changes to his approach affected his excellent contact quality; in fact, he improved his hard hit rate by nine points. All these metrics moving in the right direction are definitely a positive sign and the changes to the fences at Rogers Centre should help even more.

Two Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Jose Miranda – Miranda had a lot of positive things go his way during his big league debut last year. From June onwards, he posted a 130 wRC+ with some decent power. The issue I see is with his aggressive approach at the plate. He has good bat-to-ball skills, but he swings far too often at bad pitches he can’t do any damage on. His chase rate was over 33% but his contact rate on those pitches out of the zone wasn’t nearly at the level of someone like Luis Arraez or Steven Kwan. This aggression has led to a pretty low walk rate throughout his professional career and a major league strikeout rate much higher than what he ran in the minor leagues. There is some risk that big league pitchers will exploit this weakness if he doesn’t make a corresponding adjustment to his approach.

Alec Bohm – In many ways, Bohm’s issues are similar to Miranda’s. He has a good contact rate but too much of his contact is simply too weak to do much damage. He did increase his launch angle last year which helped him improve his results on contact and his actual slugging percentage lagged well behind his expected slugging by nearly 40 points. But he also sacrificed some contact quality to achieve that elevated contact, seeing his hard hit rate fall by nearly seven points. Getting the ball up in the air more often is a good sign, but it won’t do him much good if too many of those fly balls wind up in gloves because they aren’t hit hard enough.

After running through the second base rankings, we turn our attention to the other up-the-middle position: shortstop.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

The talent level at shortstop feels deeper than it has in a long time. The top of the rankings are filled with established superstars and you’d do well to pick any one of those seven. Some of that depth is due to the group of young prospects who are on the verge of really establishing themselves in the big leagues. Betting on a big breakout from Gunnar Henderson, Wander Franco, Oneil Cruz, or Ezequiel Tovar presents some risk, but the rewards could be astronomical.

Once you get past the top 20 or so options, there’s a steep cliff down to the lower tiers. Like second base, these lower tiers are filled with youngsters with potential upside and flexible options eligible at multiple positions. The depth at shortstop likely means you’re filling your middle infield position with a second shortstop, unless you really want to pay for another top second baseman. However you choose to fill these three positions, you’ll want plenty of bench depth to ensure you’re hitting your games played cap for all three spots.

Two Guys I Like More than Chad
Xander Bogaerts – I have Bogaerts a tier higher than Chad and I think it all comes down to consistency. Over the last five seasons, he’s posted a 134 wRC+ with no individual season that’s diverged more than a handful of points from that five-year average. Combine that with an exemplary health history, and he’s as sure a bet to post a solid offensive season again in his new home in San Diego. He did post the lowest power output in this five-year stretch last year; his fly ball rate fell by more than five points and his barrel and hard hit rates both dropped a bit too. Despite blasting just 15 home runs, his wOBA fell by just five points from what he had posted over the last two seasons.

Dansby Swanson – There are plenty of reasons to doubt Swanson’s ability to repeat his career-year. On the surface, it looks like his success at the plate is tied to his BABIP with all the ups-and-downs that come with batted ball luck. To a certain extent, that’s true; he strikes out a bit too much making him more reliant on good outcomes when he puts the ball in play. He was able to improve his contact quality last year, posting a career-high hard hit rate while maintaining his elite barrel rate. That gives me a bit more hope that he can maintain his high BABIP while continuing to hit for power.

For the most part, Chad and I agreed on the general contours of the position so I could only find two guys who I liked enough to merit a blurb.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Oneil Cruz – I’m fully aware that I could regret putting Cruz here by the end of the season if everything works out for him. The tools are there and they’re loud. The problem for him is generating enough contact to do enough damage to buoy his high ceiling. And when he is putting the ball in play, it’s on the ground far too often for someone with his kind of power. He’s a few adjustments away from really breaking through which means there’s a ton of risk in paying up to make him your primary shortstop.

Vaughn Grissom – The Braves are set to give Grissom a long look at shortstop this year, hoping he’s the future at that position. He impressed in his initial callup to the majors last year, posting a 121 wRC+ in just over 150 plate appearances. The problem is that a lot of his success was BABIP driven with some serious red flags in his contact quality metrics. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate were both well below league average and nearly half of his batted balls were put on the ground. That’s not a great combination and indicates he could struggle to find as many hits in his first full season in the big leagues. His plate discipline looks to be in good shape — critically important for a player who skipped Triple-A altogether — so there’s a solid foundation to build from, just don’t expect a repeat of his rookie success.

Jeremy Peña – Peña had an up-and-down rookie season that ended on one hell of a high note, earning MVP honors in the ALCS and the World Series. The problem for him is his plate discipline; he has an extremely aggressive approach at the plate. When he’s making contact regularly, he’s able to put together hot streaks like he had in the playoffs, but if he’s not seeing the ball as well, he’s racking up too many strikeouts to really be all that effective. It’s a profile reminiscent of peak Javier Báez. But where Báez had enough power to offset all those strikeouts, Peña hasn’t consistently shown that level of power yet.

We continue our tour of the infield with my second base rankings. I’m hoping to wrap up these rankings pretty quickly with the two up-the-middle positions this week and finish the rest next week.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Traditionally, shortstop has been the lowest non-catcher position in the scarcity hierarchy but second base is really pushing it this year. Mookie Betts stands alone on top of the rankings but he’s bound to lose his eligibility after this season. There are some solid options after him but once you get to 10 or 11 players deep, there’s a group of players with big questions surrounding their production and then a significant drop off. Trevor Story’s injury certainly didn’t help either. Because Ottoneu requires you to start a middle infielder in addition to the two standard positions, the scarcity at second base makes planning your strategy for these three positions pretty tricky.

There are a number of bottom-tier options that do have some potential upside if you’re open to taking on a bit of risk. If you’re stuck with a mid-tier player, one of these youngsters could be a nice partner to give you a bit more ceiling at the position if that sleeper does break out. The other nice thing about the mid- and lower-tier options is that so many of them are eligible at multiple positions. Hitting your games played caps is incredibly important in Ottoneu and these flexible players give you plenty of options when you’re filling out your daily lineups.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Brandon Lowe – I think the big difference here is a belief that Lowe’s struggles last year were all injury related. A back injury hampered him all season long and he ended up missing large portions of the year because of it. His ailment obviously sapped a lot of his power last season — his isolated power dropped over 100 points to a career-low of .162 — but he did show some improvement in other areas of his approach. His strikeout rate was a career-best 22.9% and most of that was due to a significant improvement in two-strike counts. His overall swinging strike rate and contact rates were within the realm of his career norms, but when the at-bat was on the line, he was able to reduce his whiff rate leading to a lower strikeout rate. Assuming his back is fully healed this year and his two-strike approach sticks, he’s poised to be one of the most potent bats at a very shallow position.

Ryan McMahon – It’s always tricky rostering Rockies players since their home/road splits often require a platoon mate to pair with them when they’re playing outside of Coors Field. McMahon isn’t necessarily an exception to that suggestion — his away split is a decidedly not-nice 69 point difference in wOBA — but he made some key improvements under-the-hood that could indicate a higher ceiling for him. He reduced his overall swing rate by more than three points and increased his zone contact rate up to 83%. Those two changes led to some higher contact quality and a career-low swinging strike rate. It didn’t necessarily show up in his results — his strikeout rate was still a bit elevated and his power output actually fell from his previous three-year norms — but the adjustments indicate a better approach at the plate.

Brandon Drury – When a journeyman enjoys a mid-career breakout, it’s always important to ask if it’s sustainable. You can read more about my thoughts on Drury’s career-year last season in my deep dive from December but it essentially boils down to this: he made significant improvements to his batted ball quality while also honing his approach at the plate to make contact a lot more often. And with eligibility at three positions, he’s a flexible piece of depth for any Ottoneu team.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Jazz Chisholm Jr. – It breaks my heart to put Chisholm down here because he’s an extremely fun player to watch. His combination of power and speed make him one of the most dynamic young players in baseball. Unfortunately, only one of those tools will be useful in Ottoneu making him a much more valuable player in 4×4 or 5×5 formats. Then, there’s the added complication of a position move, as the Marlins have decided to try him out in centerfield this year. Maybe he takes to the transition without a hitch, but it also presents some uncertainty that, combined with his back injury last year, makes me hesitate to rank him any higher. I really hope I have to eat my words at the end of the year.

Luis Arraez – I like Arraez and Chad and I have him in the same tier, but I think I’m a little lower on him. Arraez’s old school, contact-heavy approach is pretty unique in this day and age and his move to Miami’s pitcher’s paradise shouldn’t hurt him as much since he wasn’t hitting for power anyway. But with an offensive foundation so heavily reliant on good outcomes on all his batted balls, he’s more susceptible to bad luck than most. His career BABIP is .336 and none of his individual seasons look like extreme outliers, but any dip in that metric will have significant effects on his results.

Isaac Paredes – Paredes finally got a chance at near-full-time at-bats in Tampa Bay last season and produced a pretty good 116 wRC+ in just under 400 plate appearances. His excellent plate discipline provides him with a solid foundation but I’m not sure he’ll be able to replicate his power output without some significant changes to his batted ball profile. He blasted 20 home runs last year and his isolated power was .230, the highest it’s been at any level in his professional career. Despite all those extra-base hits, his barrel and hard hit rates were just 6.4% and 37.6%, respectively. Both marks are below league average wouldn’t normally indicate such a high ISO. He was able to hit so many homers because he optimizes his batted balls for pulled contact in the air. Still, without improving his batted ball quality, there’s some risk that he won’t produce as much power this year.

After going through the catching position last week, I’m turning my attention to ranking the rest of the infield this week, beginning with first basemen. Do you need a big thumper to power your offense? Do you like strategic draft decisions at a deep position with plenty of mid-tier talent? Look no further.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

First base is always a deep position and this year is no different. If you miss out on one of the top guys, I count up to 20 or so secondary options that could provide solid production for your team. That’s not to say you should ignore those guys in the top tier and just wait to grab a mid-tier option. If you have the opportunity to pick one of Freddy Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Paul Goldschmidt, you won’t regret it. They’ll carry a large portion of your offense on their own — if you pay for that kind of production.

There’s a group of young first basemen who have either just established themselves or are on the verge of debuting, led by Vinnie Pasquantino. If you miss out on the Italian Breakfast, Nathaniel Lowe, Triston Casas, Jose Miranda, and hopefully Spencer Torkelson all bring a bit of youth to a position that has traditionally skewed pretty veteran heavy.

There are a bunch of bounce back candidates that can be found for really cheap to pair with a mid-tier option if you want to go that way. Brandon Belt’s projections are off the charts, but the health of his knees will always dictate how much he’s able to produce. Jared Walsh, Trey Mancini, and Dominic Smith also fit this bill. If any of those guys are healthy and producing, they could return some excellent value for just a buck or two, and because the position is so deep, they can be jettisoned pretty easily if they’re not hitting well early in the season.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Vinnie Pasquantino – I’m expecting pretty big things from Pasquantino in his sophomore campaign. In his first taste of the major leagues, he showed phenomenal plate discipline with a walk rate a few decimal points above his strikeout rate; he didn’t chase and made contact at an elite rate. With that kind of foundation, he’s already a step ahead of most young prospects. And when he puts the ball in play, he does it very hard and in the air. All of the skills he showed are exactly what you’d want to see from a young hitter and already make him one of the better hitters in the league at just 25-years-old.

Yandy Díaz – Díaz possesses all the same skills that make Pasquantino an elite presence at the plate — low chase, high contact, and high hard hit rates. The only thing that’s lacking is an ability to elevate the ball regularly. That didn’t hold him back from posting a career-high 146 wRC+ last year. The projection systems believe in this new ceiling he showed last year and even project a bit of power growth for him this year. I’m not sure if that’ll happen without a significant change in his batted ball profile, but he’s already proved he can be productive without a higher fly ball rate. Buy the elite skills, and if he does make the launch angle adjustment, reap even greater rewards.

Joey Meneses – Anyone who bought into Frank Schwindel’s “breakout” in 2021 can tell you to stay away from Meneses. Late career breakouts like these are just so hard to predict and rarely last long. There are a few reasons why I believe Meneses’s leap will stick this year. His hard hit rate was significantly higher than Schwindel’s, giving him a higher power ceiling. His plate approach isn’t great; the combination of low strikeout and low walk rates make him pretty dependent on batted ball outcomes. Even if his BABIP regresses back toward league average, his ability to impact the ball gives him a solid foundation to be an above average hitter.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Christian Walker – Walker posted a career-year in 2022, setting career-highs in all sorts of offensive categories. I’m not necessarily down on him because of that — though he’s likely to regress back towards his career norms. The biggest adjustment he made was to swing a lot less aggressively, reducing his overall swing rate to just under 45%. His batted ball peripherals all looked fairly similar to his breakout season in 2019. Without any significant changes to his underlying ability to hit for power, the likelihood that he repeats his career-year in 2023 comes down to whether or not his new plate approach is sticky.

Andrew Vaughn – Last season, Vaughn increased his hard hit rate four points, up from 46.4% to 48.4%, putting him in the top ten percent of the league. Even though he was able to impact the ball with authority more often, his barrel rate fell by three points and his isolated power fell by two points. Therein lies the problem. Despite hitting the ball extremely hard, it’s too often put on the ground instead of in the air. To make matters worse, his plate discipline slipped a bit as well, with his walk rate falling to 5.6%. Despite these issues, his wRC+ was still decent at 113. If you’re drafting him and expecting a breakout, there are a lot of things that will need to change first to get there.

Matt Mervis – Mervis had a ton of helium after posting a fantastic 156 wRC+ across three different minor league levels last year. He slashed .309/.379/.605 and blasted 36 home runs as he moved from High-A all the way up to Triple-A in the span of a single season. It’s certainly possible he’ll make his major league debut this year but I’m pumping the brakes on picking him as a breakout candidate. Last year was just his second professional season after going undrafted in the abbreviated, five-round 2020 draft. In 2021, he posted just an 85 wRC+ while spending most of his time in Single-A. The Cubs were obviously not ready to hand the reins over to him this year either; they signed both Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini to play first. Neither of those two veterans will block Mervis if he continues smashing the ball in the minor leagues, but he has to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke first.

I’m taking a break from my rebuilding series this week to start my Ottoneu rankings for 2023. It’s a little late — the cut deadline has already come and gone — but I’ll try and get them done quickly so they’re available before draft season starts in earnest. Between these and Chad’s rankings (found below), hopefully you’ll have everything you need to prepare for your drafts this year.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

Playing a catcher is a necessary evil in fantasy baseball, and in Ottoneu, you have the opportunity to play two at a time (though be careful with your position games played cap). The top players at the position will give you legitimate production but things drop off quickly from the top two tiers. If you can’t (or don’t want to) grab one of the top seven or eight players at the position, you’re probably better off picking two of the mid- or low-tier options and hoping to find some kind of production out of that combination. If you really wanted to, you could grab a couple of catchers for $1 at the auction and then just churn through the position in season until you find something that works.

There’s a pretty large group of young backstops who are either just getting established in the big leagues or are on the verge of being called up. The leap from the minors to the majors is always hard for youngsters, but it’s particularly difficult for catchers. I don’t recommend relying on one of these prospects unless you pair them with an established veteran to mitigate some of the risk.

One note about Daulton Varsho: based on playing time alone, he should probably be included in the top tier since he’ll be playing nearly everyday, but I would be shocked if he held onto his catcher eligibility next year. You could draft him as your primary catcher alongside some of the top options at the position, but next year, you’re going to have to choose whether or not to keep him as an outfielder only. Weigh his salary accordingly.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Will Smith – Technically, we both ranked Smith in the top tier so we don’t actually diverge all that much on his position, but I considered ranking Smith in a tier of his own above any other player at the position. His combination of elite plate discipline and good power for the position is unrivaled as a catcher. Both his projected points per game and points per plate appearance stand apart from any other backstop.

Danny Jansen – This ranking comes down to how much you think he’s going to play behind Alejandro Kirk; his projected production is fantastic. Those two were paired up as the starting catcher and designated hitter last year once Jansen returned from his early season injury. The Blue Jays brought in Brandon Belt this offseason and he might take away a portion of the playing time at designated hitter against right-handed pitching, but do you really think his knees (or lack thereof) are going to hold up for a whole season? I’m expecting Jansen to get plenty of playing time as the primary backup to Kirk and at DH, just like last year.

Mitch Garver – This one also comes down to playing time. In his first season in Texas, Garver spent nearly half the season on the Injured List and he was just okay when he was on the field. Still, he put up a 136 wRC+ over his previous three seasons before last year and that includes a 43 wRC+ in 2020. The Rangers don’t really have a great option at designated hitter and Garver could slot in there which is what he did for most of last year.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Francisco Álvarez, Bo Naylor, Shea Langeliers, etc. – This goes back to that note I had above about young catchers. They’re full of risk and I wouldn’t count on them to carry your production at the position. If you want to grab one as a future investment, that’s fine, but if you’re competing for a top spot in your league, I’d be more inclined to find some more consistent production from a different mid-tier option. Álvarez in particular seems like a significant risk. The talent with the bat is evident, but the Mets clearly don’t trust him behind the plate yet. New York signed Omar Narváez and extended Tomás Nido to pair at the position, pushing Álvarez back to the minors as he continues to develop his defensive skills. It’s possible he’ll get an opportunity at designated hitter, which certainly changes some of the calculus, but that’s no guarantee yet.

So, you’ve made the difficult decision to start rebuilding in your dynasty fantasy baseball league. Maybe you’re coming off a competitive window but salary inflation and arbitration have conspired to prevent you from running the same roster back again this year or you had a really unlucky season and need to tear everything down. Whatever the case may be, you’re here now and need to start somewhere. Last week, I walked through that decision-making process and how to start evaluating your roster, now you need to start making things happen.

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The process. Taking a step back. Tanking. However you put it, nearly every team in Major League Baseball has been faced with the decision to rebuild at some point in the recent past. Sometimes it’s a quick retool lasting a year or two or maybe it’s a full tear-down with a multi-year cycle before sniffing the playoffs again. Dynasty fantasy baseball — and Ottoneu in particular — is no different, where the decision to build for the future is one of the core experiences of the format.

When Ottoneu was established, it was designed to try and emulate the job of an MLB general manager as closely as possible within the confines of a fantasy baseball setting. That meant deep rosters, access to the full minor leagues, and the ability to truly build for the future. I’ve played fantasy baseball for over 20 years and have been playing Ottoneu since 2011 when it was first established. It’s my favorite format I’ve played in all those years, and luckily, I’ve managed to avoid a major rebuild in any of my leagues until now.

My very first Ottoneu team was in League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams and I’ve held onto this team ever since. I’ve finished as high as second in this league and never lower than sixth until 2021. The prospect of rebuilding was never really all that appealing to me. I preferred to draft and wheel and deal my way into contention every year even if that “always compete” strategy never resulted in any championships. I thought it was more fun to try and push for that top-three finish than to “waste” a year (or years) rebuilding. Unfortunately, without a strong foundation to stay competitive every year, the tank has finally caught up with me.

I thought it would be helpful and instructive to walk through this rebuild to impart any lessons I learn to you, dear reader. My hope is that a guide to rebuilding in Ottoneu should be different enough thanks to the quirks and nuances of the unique format while still having some value for those of you who don’t play Ottoneu. Perhaps it’ll make your decision to start rebuilding a little easier or help you along the way if you’re already knee-deep in your own step-back cycle.

Making the Decision

I finished the 2021 season in seventh place and foolishly tried to run it back again last year. There were tons of holes on my roster but I thought I had enough pieces to be competitive with a good draft. It didn’t work. I quickly fell into last place once the season started as injuries and poor talent evaluation both dragged my team to the bottom. By May, the writing was on the wall — this team stunk and I’d need to do a lot of work to turn it around.

And that’s one of the first lessons I should have learned: you need to be brutally honest with your position. From 2017–‘19, I finished in sixth place for three straight seasons. That should have been a huge warning sign that my strategy of trying to compete every season wasn’t working. Those teams had some nice pieces like MVP-era Christian Yelich, Coors-era DJ LeMahieu, Whit Merrifield, and J.T. Realmuto. What they didn’t have was any sort of keepable pitching what-so-ever. That should have been evident in the final points-per-game (P/G) and -per-innings-pitched (P/IP) each season but I (arrogantly) thought I could overcome that hindrance.

To be fair, I did a pretty good job of building a competitive offense (thanks to the juiced baseball!) but I just couldn’t figure out an answer for my pitching staff. It regularly sat in the bottom half of the league by points-per-innings-pitched and was the downfall of those offensive powerhouses in 2018 and ‘19. A more honest evaluation and reflection after each of those years could have resulted in a decision to start rebuilding a lot sooner.

Evaluate Your Roster and Develop a Plan

These next two steps really go hand-in-hand. Once you’ve decided to start rebuilding, laying out a rough roadmap towards contention is your next step. A rebuild without an exit strategy hews too close to how the Marlins approach each season in the big leagues. It’s too easy to push the goalposts back each year if you’re not making progress so having a concrete plan in place helps you break out of that cycle.

You can’t really build that timeline until you’ve evaluated your roster and figured out who is coming along for the ride and who is dead weight. Rebuilding teams aren’t just deciding to keep players for next year, they have to take into account their timeline back to contention. Because of salary inflation and arbitration, the players you keep today will be that much more expensive down the road. If you’re looking at a quick one- or two-year retool, keeping a player with $1–$5 of surplus value makes a little more sense than if you’re looking to rebuild for multiple years. Those borderline keepers should turn into easy cuts if their salary in a few years prices them out of your roster.

Players with tons of surplus value — $10 or more — make sense as long-term keepers because they’re the players that will be contributing on your next competitive roster down the road. These are your centerpieces to your team — usually young major leaguers who have already established themselves but who have a cheap salary right now.

For my team in League 32, those centerpieces are probably these four guys:

Even though Wander Franco doesn’t necessarily have a projected surplus value in 2023, the potential in his bat is off the charts. Even if he ends up not hitting for as much power as expected, if he’s healthy and continues his upward trajectory, he should be worth the large hit to my salary cap. The other three players all have plenty of surplus value and would likely fit on nearly every roster around the league at their price, even if their projections aren’t that gaudy.

Making those keep or cut decisions with a two- or three-year outlook can be pretty tricky. It’s hard enough projecting for next season, let alone a few years into the future. Luckily, ZiPS projects three years into the future so you can at least get an idea of how your roster might look in 2024 or 2025. Those long-term projections aren’t perfect, but they’re a good baseline to start from when determining which players to keep and which to cut.

On the other hand, if you’re just starting your rebuild, you’ll need valuable pieces to trade off during the season to continue replenishing your roster. This isn’t as important as determining who the long-term core of your team is, but they’ll be a critical part of moving your rebuild forward. Think of them as the MLB veteran signed to a one- or two-year deal to be used as trade bait during the summer. For my roster, that’s someone like my $25 Max Muncy or $21 Teoscar Hernández. Those two are projected to be solid contributors, and if they have a strong season in 2023, they’d both make fantastic trade pieces during the summer for a team looking to upgrade for the stretch run. They’re cheap enough to be keepers in 2023 and good enough to be a significant upgrade for a team during the summer.

Determining which players are long-term keepers and which players are sellable keepers might seem like they’re at odds. It depends on where you’re at in your rebuilding process. Since my team is still towards the beginning, I’ve still got sellable pieces on my roster that I can keep this year with the intention to move them for more valuable pieces later on.

Now we need to talk about prospects. For a rebuilding team, you’d expect that prospects are the bread and butter of the process. While that might be true to some extent, I’m here to argue that prospects are a trap. Yesterday, Lucas Kelly did a great job breaking down much of my argument in his piece on keeping minor leaguers. With prospects, you’re hoping that their development path and introduction to the majors is as smooth as Juan Soto’s while trying to keep them on your roster with a low enough salary if/when they hit snags along the way.

For example, Marco Luciano has an average salary of $5 in Ottoneu right now (and I happen to currently roster him in League 32). His ETA on his prospect profile says 2024, but he hasn’t played above High-A yet. Even if he does hit that ETA, it’s unlikely he’ll make an immediate impact until a year or two later. At that point his salary will be at least $7 and maybe higher if he gets any major league playing time. Will he be worth that salary then? Maybe, but it’s a risk you have to weigh and Luciano’s timeline might not line up with your own cycle. Lucas made the same argument with Jack Leiter in his article yesterday. With prospects that are multiple years away, are they even going to be contributing in the major leagues when you’re aiming to break out of your rebuilding cycle? I’m choosing to keep Luciano at $3 because the salary is low enough I can take the risk to see if he pans out and he might even make an enticing trade piece this summer if his minor league season is more successful than last year.

With that said, there are some prospects who do make sense to try and build around. With the new CBA incentivizing teams to promote their top prospects earlier in the season, it’s easier than ever to figure out which prospects are going to be given a full-season opportunity in the big leagues. These MLB-ready prospects are usually deep into their development process and can usually be trusted to return some modest value now while hopefully bringing back even more value later on. My team in League 32 has four guys like that: George Kirby ($10), Ezequiel Tovar ($3), Grayson Rodriguez ($3), and Shane Baz ($3). I’m betting that these guys will develop enough to become centerpieces on my roster in a few years and they’re close enough to the majors that I can make a call on whether or not they’ve developed sufficiently fairly quickly in my rebuilding process.

That’s it for now. My next installment in this series will examine my opening moves of this rebuild from last summer and dive into a potential draft strategy.