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Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 22–28

Welcome back to the SP Drip— *record scratch* Wait, that headline doesn’t say “Drip.” After gathering feedback from across the Ottoneu universe, I’ve heard loud and clear that streaming recommendations — even in their adjusted form I presented in this biweekly column — just weren’t providing enough value for owners. Instead, they’re looking for sit/start recommendations further up the SP chain. Personally, I found that the same handful of pitchers ended up being recommended over and over again in the Drip — it turns out that the deep rosters of the format mean there are very few viable starters who are owned in less than half the leagues across Ottoneu. I’m still not sure what Tuesday’s article will look like moving forward, but on Fridays, you’ll get the full picture of the week ahead. Introducing the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner!

What I’ve done below is organize every starter on all 30 teams based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid and sorted them into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. As this is the first run of this new format, please let me know if there’s any feedback or questions.

May 22–28
Team Series 1 Series 2 Start Maybe Risky Sit
BAL @NYY (57) TEX (89) Grayson Rodriguez Kyle Bradish (x2), Tyler Wells, Kyle Gibson Dean Kremer
BOS @LAA (59) @ARI (68) Chris Sale James Paxton Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Corey Kluber
NYY BAL (68) SDP (148) Gerrit Cole (x2), Luis Severino Nestor Cortes Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito
TBR TOR (94) LAD (144) Shane McClanahan Zach Eflin Taj Bradley (x2), Tyler Glasnow Josh Fleming (x2)
TOR @TBR (64) @MIN (100) Kevin Gausman Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt (@MIN), José Berríos (@MIN) Chris Bassitt (@TBR), José Berríos (@TBR) Yusei Kikuchi
CHW @CLE (158) @DET (183) Dylan Cease (x2), Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn Mike Clevinger (x2), Michael Kopech
CLE CHW (100) STL (55) Logan Allen Cal Quantrill, Tanner Bibee, Shane Bieber Peyton Battenfield (vCHW) Peyton Battenfield (vSTL)
DET @KCR (123) CHW (135) Eduardo Rodriguez (x2) Michael Lorenzen (x2) Matthew Boyd Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz
KCR DET (187) WSN (110) Brady Singer (x2) Zack Greinke Daniel Lynch Jordan Lyles, Brad Keller
MIN SFG (96) TOR (82) Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan Bailey Ober (vSFG), Louie Varland, Pablo López Bailey Ober (vTOR)
HOU @MIL (96) @OAK (155) Cristian Javier (x2), Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez J.P. France Brandon Bielak
LAA BOS (50) MIA (114) Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Shohei Ohtani Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson
OAK @SEA (128) HOU (155) JP Sears Drew Rucinski 루친스키 (x2), Luis Medina (x2), Ken Waldichuk, Kyle Muller
SEA OAK (71) PIT (116) Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby Marco Gonzales (x2)
TEX @PIT (164) @BAL (130) Dane Dunning (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Martín Pérez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney
ATL LAD (128) PHI (110) Spencer Strider (x2) Charlie Morton Bryce Elder Dylan Dodd (x2), Jared Shuster
MIA @COL (52) @LAA (59) Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo Edward Cabrera (x2), Eury Pérez (x2), Braxton Garrett
NYM @CHC (94) @COL (52) Kodai Senga (@CHC) Tylor Megill, Carlos Carrasco, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Kodai Senga (@COL)
PHI ARI (36) @ATL (71) Matt Strahm (x2), Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker (x2), Ranger Suárez
WSN SDP (141) @KCR (123) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin
CHC NYM (132) CIN (100) Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele Drew Smyly (x2) Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks
CIN STL (27) @CHC (94) Hunter Greene Graham Ashcraft (@CHC) Graham Ashcraft (vSTL) Brandon Williamson (x2), Ben Lively 라이블리, Luke Weaver
MIL HOU (110) SFG (71) Corbin Burnes (x2), Freddy Peralta Colin Rea (x2), Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer
PIT TEX (89) @SEA (128) Mitch Keller Roansy Contreras Johan Oviedo, Luis L. Ortiz (@SEA) Luis L. Ortiz (vTEX), Rich Hill
STL @CIN (52) @CLE (158) Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery (@CLE) Jordan Montgomery (@CIN) Matthew Liberatore, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz
ARI @PHI (89) BOS (96) Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tommy Henry (x2), Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt
COL MIA (107) NYM (96) Chase Anderson (x2), Austin Gomber (x2), Karl Kauffmann, Kyle Freeland, Connor Seabold
LAD @ATL (71) @TBR (64) Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw Gavin Stone (x2), Noah Syndergaard
SDP @WSN (96) @NYY (57) Yu Darvish (@WSN), Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove Yu Darvish (@NYY) Michael Wacha, Ryan Weathers
SFG @MIN (100) @MIL (96) Alex Cobb (x2), Anthony DeSclafani, Logan Webb Alex Wood Ross Stripling (x2)

A few general schedule notes first:

  • The Red Sox have a couple of tough matchups on the West Coast in Los Angeles and Arizona. Angel Stadium is a home run heaven and the Angels are always dangerous with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani swinging big sticks, and the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently.
  • The Marlins also get to visit Angel Stadium but they have a date in Coors Field first. That means there are a bunch of solid Miami starters who have really poor recommendations this week and it’s a rough stretch for the rookie Eury Pérez.
  • The White Sox will face the two worst offenses in baseball next week which means guys like Mike Clevinger and Michael Kopech are viable starters.
  • The Rangers also have a pair of favorable matchups next week in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Dane Dunning has been brilliant since joining the rotation and he gets a pair of starts in some cavernous ballparks.

Despite their fantastic record recently, the Dodgers offense has been particularly bad on the road this year and hasn’t been hitting all that well over the last two weeks either. That makes the matchup against the Rays next weekend particularly enticing for Tampa Bay starters. Tyler Glasnow is scheduled to come off the Injured List during that series and I want to rank him higher with the nice matchup to cushion his activation, but it’s so hard to predict what we’ll see from him after his spring injury.

The Mets travel to Coors Field next weekend and Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are lined up to start two of those games. Neither one has been an automatic start this year anyway — both have dealt with injuries and Scherzer has been inconsistent when he’s been healthy. It’s tough to sit the pitchers you’ve invested a ton of your salary cap into, but I wouldn’t trust either of them in the thin air in Denver.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Eduardo Rodriguez (@KCR, vCHW)
  • Gerrit Cole (vBAL, vSDP)
  • Dylan Cease (@CLE, @DET)
  • Spencer Strider (vLAD, vPHI)
  • Cristian Javier (@MIL, @OAK)
  • Alex Cobb (@MIN, @MIL)
  • Corbin Burnes (vHOU, vSFG)
  • Luis Castillo (vOAK, vPIT)
  • Dane Dunning (@PIT, @BAL)
  • MacKenzie Gore (vSDP, @KCR)
  • Brady Singer (vDET, vWSN)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 19–21

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 19–21
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
ATL .349 98 SEA .304
PIT .318 95 ARI .335
CIN .310 116 NYY .318
TBR .368 94 MIL .311
WSN .307 104 DET .287
PHI .324 106 CHC .334
TOR .326 105 BAL .326
NYM .313 97 CLE .284
TEX .339 101 COL .314
HOU .300 102 OAK .304
CHW .300 108 KCR .300
STL .336 94 LAD .335
LAA .331 107 MIN .314
SDP .307 98 BOS .340
SFG .324 90 MIA .301

Teams with favorable schedules over the weekend include the Braves, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Rays, Rangers, and Red Sox.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Reds, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Carlos Carrasco 36.54% CLE .284 7.40 0.0% 1.98
James Paxton 30.77% SDP .307 2.90 40.0% 1.80
Jake Irvin 4.17% DET .287 5.24 9.4% 0.00
Patrick Corbin 1.28% DET .287 4.61 10.7% 1.42

There’s a couple of recommendations in that Nationals-Tigers series. I’ll talk about Irvin below, but Patrick Corbin deserves some more attention after holding the Mets to just two runs in six innings yesterday. The strikeouts weren’t there — just one in the outing — but he’s now strung together four good starts in a row.

James Paxton came off the IL over the weekend and looked pretty good in his first start in more than two years. He struck out nine, walked one, and allowed just four hits in five innings. His velocity looked good and his stuff looked as good as it did back when he was a frontline starter for the Mariners. He’s lined up to start against the Padres which feels like a pretty risky matchup, but San Diego’s offense is mired in a season-long slump and you have to hope that Paxton is up to the challenge of shutting down their star studded lineup.

Carlos Carrasco is scheduled to come off the IL on Saturday and gets a nice easy matchup against his former team to ease him back to the big leagues. He wasn’t pitching very well before hitting the shelf with his elbow injury and I’d usually recommend waiting a bit after a pitcher is activated off the IL to let him settle back into their routine. The matchup is just too good to pass up and he’ll be extra motivated since this is the first time he’ll be facing the Guardians since coming over to the Mets a few years ago.

Hot Starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Jake Irvin 15.1 3.43 9.4% 0.00 5.24
Zack Greinke 15.2 4.06 15.3% 1.15 4.73

Since being called up at the beginning of the month, Jake Irvin has made a couple of good starts against the Cubs and Giants but was blown up for six runs in his last start against the Mets. The good news is that he struck out six and walked just one in that outing. He wasn’t a highly regarded prospect in the Nationals organization with the profile of a back-end starter. He’s got a nice matchup against the Tigers on Friday and that’s a good opportunity to see if he can bounce back from his last start and continue building on the success he saw in San Francisco.

Zack Greinke is still hanging around pitching for the Royals in his old age. His crafty approach to pitching worked well for him in his return to Kansas City last year and he’s back at it again this season. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed six runs in 15.2 innings with a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s lined up to face the White Sox this weekend and then the Tigers next week.

Recap: May 12–14

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Ryne Nelson 4.2 -3.3 -0.70
Matthew Boyd 1.1 -13.1 -9.85
Marco Gonzales 6 20.1 3.35
J.P. France 6.2 32.2 4.83
Adrian Houser 4 -2.5 -0.63
Total 22.2 33.4 1.47
Season Total 414.1 1234.1 2.98

Another rough round of recommendations as Ryne Nelson, Matthew Boyd, and Adrian Houser just didn’t have it last weekend. J.P. France looked pretty good against the White Sox, lasting into the seventh inning with just a single run allowed on three hits and one walk.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 15–18

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 15–18
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
BOS 0.344 100 SEA 0.299
BAL 0.329 95 LAA 0.329
DET 0.291 93 PIT 0.326
MIA 0.297 93 WSN 0.304
TOR 0.327 105 NYY 0.309
NYM 0.315 97 TBR 0.368
STL 0.326 94 MIL 0.310
TEX 0.339 101 ATL 0.349
HOU 0.298 102 CHC 0.339
CHW 0.301 108 CLE 0.276
COL 0.313 111 CIN 0.307
OAK 0.306 91 ARI 0.332
SDP 0.314 98 KCR 0.304
SFG 0.327 90 PHI 0.326
LAD 0.337 107 MIN 0.302

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Braves, Mariners, Mets, Rangers, Reds, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Ryne Nelson 44.87% OAK 0.306 4.73 7.6% 1.25
Nick Pivetta 31.09% SEA 0.299 5.79 13.3% 2.08
Michael Lorenzen 5.13% PIT 0.326 4.20 10.3% 0.96
Rich Hill 3.53% DET 0.291 5.03 12.7% 1.74

There are a pair of starters in that short two-game Pirates-Tigers series that make for nice targets. Rich Hill has put together a solid stretch of starts, particularly against some weaker opponents. Michael Lorenzen is a bit more of a risk against a Pittsburgh offense that’s been pretty potent to start the season. However, the Pirates have scuffled a bit over the last two weeks (.305 wOBA) and Comerica Park provides a friendly venue.

Nick Pivetta could also be a risky start, though the Mariners offense has been really struggling recently. He can’t stop allowing home runs, allowing at least one in every start save one (against the Rays of all teams). With a HR/9 over two, he’s been killing his Ottoneu value despite a passable strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Hot Starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Dane Dunning 14.1 2.68 12.7% 0.00 6.03
Dean Kremer 17 2.84 9.6% 0.00 4.66

Dane Dunning has been filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom and has put together two solid starts against the Angels — five scoreless with just two hits allowed — and the Mariners — six innings of two-run ball. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but if he’s hitting his spots with his command, he can be effective. So far, that seems to be what’s driving his success. His next start will be against the Braves which will be a pretty significant challenge. Monitor that start and see how he looks afterward.

Dean Kremer has turned in a pair of impressive starts against some very difficult opposition, holding the Braves to just a single run last week and keeping the Rays off the board in his start this week. Those are the two best offenses in the league and his ability to handle them feels like a pretty significant step forward for him.

Recap: May 8–11

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Vince Velasquez N/A
Jhony Brito 4.1 -8.5 -1.97
Dane Dunning 6 35.8 5.97
Michael Lorenzen 7 44.8 6.40
Rich Hill 3.2 18.7 5.11
Peyton Battenfield 6 34.2 5.70
Total 27 125.0 4.63
Season Total 391.2 1200.7 3.07

Now that’s more like it. Even with the stinker of a start from Jhony Brito, Dunning, Lorenzen, Hill, and Battenfield carried a huge amount of points this week. The only nit to pick from that quartet of wins was the lack of bulk from Hill despite the great points per IP.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 12–14

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 12–14
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
DET .292 93 SEA .301
MIA .296 93 CIN .308
WSN .301 104 NYM .315
BAL .331 95 PIT .328
NYY .305 102 TBR .371
TOR .332 105 ATL .349
CLE .280 101 LAA .334
BOS .345 100 STL .324
MIN .304 96 CHC .331
CHW .304 108 HOU .299
MIL .314 103 KCR .302
COL .312 111 PHI .328
ARI .336 94 SFG .327
OAK .304 91 TEX .343
LAD .334 107 SDP .316

Teams with favorable schedules include the Angels, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Guardians, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Rockies, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Ryne Nelson 46.80% SFG .327 4.77 7.6% 1.25
Matthew Boyd 30.77% SEA .301 4.72 12.7% 1.47
Marco Gonzales 11.22% DET .292 4.20 9.2% 0.88
J.P. France 4.49% CHW .304 2.55 20.0% 0.00
Adrian Houser 3.53% KCR .302 1.85 19.0% 0.00

Not a lot of recommendations for this weekend. There are a pair of starters in the Mariners-Tigers series who you could go after since both of those offenses have been sputtering and they’re playing in the cavernous Comerica Park. All three of the Tigers starters scheduled to start in the series fall below the 50% ownership threshold, but Matthew Boyd is clearly the best of the bunch. On Seattle’s side, Marco Gonzales has been solid if unspectacular this year. His last start was a gutty six inning outing against the Astros where he allowed three runs on six hits while striking out three.

Both J.P. France and Adrian Houser have made just a single start this year, though both draw a pretty nice matchup for their second start. France is a little bit more of a risky play since he’s pitching in the home run friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, but he looked solid against the Mariners in his major league debut over the weekend. Houser was activated off the IL on Sunday and made his first start against the Giants, throwing 4.2 innings with just two runs allowed and five strikeouts.

Despite allowing 13 runs across his last three starts, Ryne Nelson’s FIP during that stretch has been just 3.57 with a 4.23 xFIP. Six of those runs came in a start in Coors Field which is where the only home run he’s allowed over the last few weeks was hit. He’s lined up to start against the Giants at home over the weekend. San Francisco’s offense has been hitting pretty well, but Nelson’s home park is pretty home run friendly.

Hot starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Kyle Freeland 18 4.13 12.3% 1.00 4.53
Patrick Corbin 18.1 4.44 14.9% 1.47 4.01

I just highlighted a different Rockies starter in my last column and I’m going back to that well again. Kyle Freeland has been pretty decent over his last three starts including a seven inning outing yesterday against the Pirates. He was fantastic against the Brewers at home last week, throwing five shutout innings with five strikeouts and just three hits. The same warnings apply here as they did for Ryan Feltner: avoid starts at home while playing the matchups on the road.

Say it ain’t so! It looks like Patrick Corbin might be showing some signs of life after three miserable seasons. He pitched a solid seven innings against the Cubs last week, allowing just two runs on three hits while striking out six. He’s scheduled to start against the Giants in San Francisco today. We’ll see if he can continue building off that start against Chicago.

Recap: May 5–7

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Brad Keller 4.1 -31.1 -7.19
Kyle Muller 5.1 -0.6 -0.12
Ken Waldichuk 5 -9.2 -1.84
Joey Lucchesi 4 5.9 1.48
Michael Lorenzen N/A
Josh Fleming 5 -21.8 -4.36
Yonny Chirinos 5.1 19.7 3.69
Total 29 -37.2 -1.28
Season Total 364.2 1075.7 2.95

Ouch. Nothing good came from those recommendations last weekend. In the Brad Keller-Kyle Muller matchup on Friday, the A’s and Royals wound up scoring 20 runs combined. The only start that came close to being a win was Yonny Chirinos’s start against the Yankees, though he walked four and didn’t strike out a single batter in that outing.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 8–11

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 8–11
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.299 99 TEX 0.346
CLE 0.286 101 DET 0.285
PIT 0.335 95 COL 0.312
BAL 0.337 95 TBR 0.375
NYY 0.298 102 OAK 0.297
CHC 0.340 98 STL 0.324
KCR 0.292 93 CHW 0.296
MIL 0.315 103 LAD 0.344
LAA 0.334 107 HOU 0.302
ARI 0.326 94 MIA 0.303
SFG 0.329 90 WSN 0.297
CIN 0.304 116 NYM 0.316
PHI 0.329 106 TOR 0.324
ATL 0.353 98 BOS 0.351
MIN 0.312 96 SDP 0.318

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the Diamondbacks, Giants, Guardians, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Red Sox, and Reds.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Vince Velasquez 37.18% COL 0.312 3.79 14.6% 0.84
Jhony Brito 33.97% OAK 0.297 4.46 6.1% 0.79
Dane Dunning 16.03% SEA 0.299 3.31 7.6% 0.00
Michael Lorenzen 4.81% CLE 0.286 4.83 9.9% 1.29
Rich Hill 2.56% COL 0.312 5.34 12.9% 1.95
Peyton Battenfield 1.28% DET 0.285 5.89 3.9% 1.56

I covered both Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill in my last column on Tuesday as two guys who have been particularly good recently. The former made a start against the Rays yesterday and left after three innings with elbow discomfort. He said he was optimistic about the injury after the game but his status is clearly up in the air. If he’s healthy, he’s scheduled to take the mound against the Rockies at home on Tuesday. Monitor his status closely.

In that A’s-Yankees series there could be a couple of starters you could call on to take advantage of some weak offenses. Jhony Brito is scheduled to start Wednesday and he looked a lot better in his last start against the potent Rangers lineup; he threw five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against just one walk. There are a bunch of A’s starters who you probably shouldn’t trust, even against the weakened Yankees lineup. Plus there’s the complication of Aaron Judge potentially being activated from the Injured List early in the week. If you had to pick an Oakland starter, I’d go with JP Sears; he’s coming off six innings of shutout work against the Mariners.

The Guardians-Tigers series features two of the worst offenses in the league going head-to-head. Michael Lorenzen and Peyton Battenfield draw starts in the series and both are worth considering simply due to the lack of offensive quality they’ll be facing. The former is a pretty known quantity at this point in his career, but the Cleveland rookie features some promise even if the early results haven’t been pretty. Battenfield features a cutter that possesses a 38.2% whiff rate, a weapon that makes him a far more interesting flier than a veteran innings eater.

Hot Starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Ryan Feltner 17 2.30 16.4% 0.00 6.32
Wade Miley 17 3.83 5.9% 0.53 4.37

I’d understand if you had completely missed out on the stretch of starts Ryan Feltner has put together recently. Over his last three turns in the rotation, he’s allowed just three runs while striking out 15 in 17 innings. Just one of those starts came at home in Coors Field and that’s really the sticking point with any Rockies starter. It’s a huge gamble to start them at home so you’re only really rostering them for half their appearances. At his peak, Germán Márquez was worth rostering; Feltner is definitely not at that point yet, but his stretch of solid starts makes him worth monitoring.

After tossing a seven-inning gem back on April 16 against the Padres, Wade Miley has followed it up with three solid starts including surviving Coors Field yesterday. The strikeouts aren’t there but he’s managing hard contact against him and isn’t walking anyone. He’s lined up to start against the Dodgers at home in his next turn through the rotation. If he can pass that test, he could be worth looking into to give your Ottoneu team some bulk innings.

Recap: May 1–4

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Domingo Germán 8.1 65.5 7.86
Kyle Gibson 6.2 11.0 1.66
Tyler Wells 6 -4.3 -0.72
Drew Smyly 7 27.9 3.99
JP Sears 6 42.0 7.00
Total 34 142.1 4.18
Season Total 335.2 1112.9 3.32

A pretty good week with two clear wins, another solid start, and just one clear loss. Domingo Germán looked dominant against the Guardians and his ownership rate has skyrocketed over the 50% threshold we’re working with. Tyler Wells actually looked pretty decent against the Royals, but he was undone by allowing three home runs, the only hits he allowed in his start.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 5–7

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 5–7
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.297 99 HOU 0.309
CHC 0.348 98 MIA 0.305
PIT 0.344 95 TOR 0.327
CIN 0.309 116 CHW 0.298
TBR 0.377 94 NYY 0.297
PHI 0.335 106 BOS 0.340
NYM 0.323 97 COL 0.304
CLE 0.289 101 MIN 0.317
ATL 0.342 98 BAL 0.333
KCR 0.276 93 OAK 0.305
STL 0.329 94 DET 0.279
LAA 0.330 107 TEX 0.342
ARI 0.322 94 WSN 0.299
SDP 0.319 98 LAD 0.336
SFG 0.330 90 MIL 0.315

Teams with favorable schedules this weekend include the A’s, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Rays, Royals, and Twins.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Brad Keller 43.59% OAK 0.305 4.80 0.0% 0.30
Kyle Muller 38.46% KCR 0.276 5.48 3.6% 1.26
Ken Waldichuk 32.69% KCR 0.276 7.42 9.0% 2.90
Joey Lucchesi 8.33% COL 0.304 3.46 17.0% 0.73
Michael Lorenzen 4.49% STL 0.329 5.31 15.4% 1.93
Josh Fleming 3.21% NYY 0.297 2.97 8.9% 0.00
Yonny Chirinos 2.24% NYY 0.297 2.88 12.0% 0.00

There are three recommendations in that Royals-A’s series in Oakland this weekend. Brad Keller still hasn’t found his groove with his new breaking balls that he introduced this year, but the matchup and venue are just too good to pass up. Both Kyle Muller and Ken Waldichuk have been frequent inclusions in this column but neither has really pitched up to their potential yet. The Royals’ punchless offense is as good an opportunity to get their seasons back on track.

After sitting out most of 2021 and all of last year due to Tommy John surgery, Joey Lucchesi has been thrust back into the Mets rotation with all their injuries they’ve been dealing with. He’s made two starts so far and has looked pretty good; he shut out the Giants in seven innings in his first start and allowed three runs in 5.1 against the Nationals in his second. He’s lined up to start at home against the Rockies.

With Aaron Judge on the IL and the rest of the Yankees lineup really struggling to produce anything right now, it’s the perfect time to take advantage of this struggling team. This weekend, the Rays host New York and there are two starters who could make for nice drip candidates. Josh Fleming has worked as a long reliever for the most part this year. Make sure he’s actually listed as the starter and isn’t lined up to be the bulk pitcher after an opener. The same goes for Yonny Chirinos. He’s finally healthy after a long road to recovery after Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow.

Hot starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Vince Velasquez 19 2.71 22.4% 0.47 6.48
Rich Hill 17.1 2.81 18.9% 0.00 5.02
Yusei Kikuchi 17.2 3.28 24.20% 1.02 5.83

Now that we’re a little deeper into the season, I can point out some under-owned pitchers who have been throwing well recently who might not be making it into the recommended section above due to their matchups. I’m looking at data from the last 14 days to find these pitchers who are performing well.

The two Pirates starters have been phenomenal recently, part of the entire team’s fantastic month of April. Rich Hill continues to do his thing at 43 years old and has had a very nice run of three starts including a gem in Coors Field where he held the Rockies to just a single run in six innings back on April 17. I recommended Vince Velasquez for his start against the Nationals last weekend and he delivered a commanding performance. He’s now posted back-to-back shutouts in his last two outings. He looks like he’s in the middle of one of those hot streaks that remind us why he was so highly thought of as a prospect and why he’s continued to bounce around the league despite never really living up to his potential.

Yusei Kikuchi’s most impressive start came back on April 15 when he held the red hot Rays to just a single run in six innings. It seems like he’s gotten his control problems figured out while still racking up the strikeouts. His stuff is good enough that he could finally be breaking out five years after coming over to the US from Japan.

Recap: April 28–30

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Kyle Muller 5 11.7 2.34
Nick Pivetta 5 12.7 2.54
Dean Kremer 5 14.4 2.88
Vince Velasquez 6 38.4 6.40
Caleb Kilian 3.1 -5.3 -1.60
Total 24.1 71.9 2.95
Season Total 301.2 970.8 3.22

Velasquez’s start was the big win over the weekend but that was negated by the disaster of a start from Caleb Kilian in Miami. The rest of the slate was fine, not too bad but no clear wins either.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 1–4

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 1–4
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
WSN 0.300 104 CHC 0.348
NYY 0.311 102 CLE 0.293
BOS 0.332 100 TOR 0.333
HOU 0.316 102 SFG 0.324
SDP 0.297 98 CIN 0.300
LAD 0.329 107 PHI 0.337
OAK 0.300 91 SEA 0.299
DET 0.272 93 NYM 0.322
TBR 0.374 94 PIT 0.338
MIA 0.301 93 ATL 0.343
CHW 0.292 108 MIN 0.312
KCR 0.270 93 BAL 0.331
STL 0.340 94 LAA 0.335
TEX 0.338 101 ARI 0.316
COL 0.300 111 MIL 0.323

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the A’s, Braves, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Padres, Reds, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies, Red Sox, Rockies, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Domingo Germán 41.35% CLE 0.293 5.45 22.4% 2.42
Kyle Gibson 40.71% KCR 0.270 4.33 11.3% 1.05
Tyler Wells 38.46% KCR 0.270 3.85 19.0% 1.24
Drew Smyly 33.01% WSN 0.300 3.19 19.1% 0.64
JP Sears 12.82% SEA 0.299 5.64 21.8% 2.49

The Orioles visit the expansive ballpark in Kansas City and get to face the punchless Royals offense next week. There are two starters who I’m recommending: Tyler Wells and Kyle Gibson (again). The former has pitched particularly well this year and pitched a seven inning shutout against the Tigers a week ago. In his last start against the Red Sox, he struck out seven — a season-high — and allowed just two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings. Gibson has been a common recommendation in this column and he has continued to provide serviceable production when the matchup is right.

Outside of a seven run blowup in his first start of the season, Drew Smyly has pitched phenomenally this year. He took a perfect game into the eighth inning against the Dodgers a week ago and then held the Padres to two runs on four hits in five innings his last time out. A matchup with the Nationals should be a piece of cake after suppressing those two offenses.

The last two recommendations are pretty risky considering the number of home runs each of them has allowed. Still, both Domingo Germán and JP Sears sit within the top-20 in the majors in strikeout-minus-walk rate. Despite their issues with the long ball, they’re striking batters out and aren’t allowing too many free passes; that’s certainly a sign of better things to come for both of them. Of the two, I’d be more inclined to start Sears since his home ballpark is a haven for fly ball pitchers like him.

Recap: April 24–27

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Brad Keller 4 5.2 1.30
Jhony Brito 2.2 4.9 1.85
Kyle Gibson 6.1 42.4 6.69
José Suarez 5 -41.3 -8.26
Zach Plesac 5 15.0 3.00
Griffin Canning 5 22.3 4.46
Colin Rea 5 1.7 0.34
Total 33 50.2 1.52
Season Total 277.1 898.9 3.24

Woof. That start from José Suarez against the A’s was absolutely brutal. It completely wiped away any positive vibes from Gibson’s gem or Canning’s solid start. Brad Keller continues to struggle with his command, which means he’s bleeding points despite allowing just a single home run this year.

We’re a month into the season and the average points per inning pitched for the recommendations in this column sits at 3.24. That’s not great, but it’s not a disaster either. The 50% ownership threshold really puts a strain on the kinds of pitchers I’m able to include since Ottoneu has such deep rosters. Have these targets been helpful for you, dear reader, or do I need to be a little more discerning with my recommendations week in and week out?


The Anatomy of a Ottoneu Dynasty Rebuild: Part 4, Ahead of Schedule

We’re about a month into the season now which means you’re probably getting a good feel for the direction your fantasy teams are headed this year. Maybe your roster has been wracked with injuries or you’ve hit the jackpot on the sleepers you picked up this offseason. This year, I’ve been writing up my experience of rebuilding my Ottoneu team in League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams; I’ve covered making the initial decision to rebuild, some general draft strategy for rebuilding clubs, and the dilemma I faced with the draft this year. Now is a pretty good time to check in on how things are progressing for The Wanderers.

The Draft

Before we dive in on what’s going on with the team now that the regular season is underway, I want to take a quick moment to recap what happened in the draft. If you remember, I had a significant amount of cash to spend on relatively few roster spots. I was targeting a starting second baseman and a high-end outfielder while spreading the rest of my cap space out between some depth options.

Folks, let me tell you, I seriously underestimated the amount of inflation present in the league. My top target, Mookie Betts, went for $70 and I drove the price up that high in a bidding war with the eventual winner. I just couldn’t bring myself to bid that one extra dollar after he hit that $70 threshold. There were a number of points in the draft where I had to bow out of the bidding on a target because the eventual price was just getting too high. I felt some particular pressure trying to find an outfielder; I had shifted my eyes towards some of the mid-tier options after some salary cap opened up by missing out on Betts. I let Masataka Yoshida ($35), Christian Yelich ($27), Jesse Winker ($28), Nick Castellanos ($26), and Cedric Mullins ($22) all go to other players after their salaries got too high and eventually settled for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. at $16. I did end up getting a couple of my high priority targets — Bryce Harper ($43), Spencer Steer ($8), Spencer Torkelson ($9), and Reid Detmers ($11) — but I felt like I was on the back foot during the entire draft, continually making contingency plans as players came off the board with values way over what I was comfortable with.

Here are the 10 players I had selected by the end of the draft:

2023 Draft Results
Player Salary Pts/G/IP
Bryce Harper $43 N/A
Brandon Lowe $27 5.79
Spencer Steer $8 5.24
Clarke Schmidt $11 1.81
Spencer Torkelson $9 3.21
Reid Detmers $11 3.41
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $16 4.05
Hayden Wesneski $6 1.43
Kyle Manzardo $3 N/A
Eric Haase $1 2.54

Brandon Lowe turned out to be a pretty good backup pick after missing out on Betts, though most of the other available second basemen in the draft have performed rather well to start this season too. Steer has looked great and Gurriel has been okay. The pitching depth I picked up hasn’t been all that impressive, but all three of them are young and still have the potential to breakout that made them such enticing options. It wasn’t the most successful draft I’ve ever had, but it wasn’t terrible, particularly considering how wayward my plans went.

Breakouts!

On April 26, my team is currently sitting in sixth place, less than 500 points behind first place and right in the middle of a group of seven teams separated by less than 100 points.

League 32 Standings
Team Points P/G P/IP
Spuds and Zucchini 🥔 3098.7 5.50 5.69
Down by the Schoolyard 2966.9 5.18 6.18
Beck Panthers 2960.1 5.18 5.39
Old Skool Ballers 2686.7 5.18 4.77
Ignacio Beardfacio 2672.9 5.06 5.22
The Wanderers 🚶‍♂️ 2631.7 5.31 4.91
Gausman Turner Overdrive 🎸 2629.5 4.67 5.97
Sharky’s Goonies ☠️ 2617.1 4.93 5.00
Sunflower Seed Finger ☝️ 2613.7 5.51 4.28
No Vacancy 2599.3 4.64 5.43
Everyone On The Right Base 2507.2 4.94 4.69
StringerBias™️ 2114.8 4.52 3.29
As of April 26

I have the third best offense in the league thanks to breakouts from Wander Franco (7.56 Pts/G), Jarred Kelenic (8.56), and Steer (5.24) and solid bounce back seasons from Max Muncy (8.73) and Lowe (5.79). My pitching hasn’t been as great, sitting eighth in the league by points per inning pitched. I’m not as worried about that, but it’s probably the area of the team that could use the most help at this point. All things considered, I’m extremely happy with where my team sits in the standings. Thanks to those handful of breakouts, it’s going a lot better than expected.

The big thing that could potentially have a huge impact on the direction of my team is Bryce Harper’s impending return. The latest reports have him possibly being activated as soon as early May. That might be optimistic, but he’s clearly ahead of schedule and should be contributing much earlier in the season than expected. Getting four months of production from him this year instead of the expected one or two means my team has a significant source of points that will be added to the roster — something very few other teams can claim. There’s no guarantee that he’ll produce up to his usual superstar standards, but if he does, my already great offense will only get better.

Churn Baby, Churn

One of the most important early season tasks for a rebuilding team is to churn through the waiver wire searching for potential undrafted breakouts. Every team does this as they deal with injuries and underperformance, but it’s particularly important for a team like mine since I need to infuse my roster with talent however I can. I’ve added ten players off the waiver wire, kept seven of them and have already completed an early season trade.

The Wanderers Transaction Log
Player Transaction Type Date Salary
Brock Burke add 3/28/2023 $3
Jonathan Hernández add 3/28/2023 $1
Nolan Jones cut 3/28/2023 $5
Jack Leiter cut 3/28/2023 $4
Dylan Dodd add 4/1/2023 $3
Marco Luciano cut 4/1/2023 $3
Jimmy Herget add 4/2/2023 $1
Jimmy Herget cut 4/2/2023 $1
Luis García (WSN) add 4/9/2023 $3
Kolten Wong cut 4/9/2023 $6
Kris Bubic add 4/12/2023 $6
Oscar Gonzalez cut 4/12/2023 $3
Chas McCormick add 4/15/2023 $3
Jonah Heim add 4/15/2023 $1
Eric Haase cut 4/15/2023 $1
Tony Gonsolin add 4/16/2023 $9
Kris Bubic cut 4/16/2023 $6
Ian Hamilton add 4/21/2023 $1
Dylan Dodd cut 4/21/2023 $3
Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade in 4/25/2023 $9
Kyle Manzardo trade out 4/25/2023 $3

Immediately following the draft, I started a couple of auctions for a pair of relievers I thought had some upside to chase. Brock Burke hasn’t been great (5.93 Pts/IP) but Jonathan Hernández (7.71) has been solid in high leverage work for the Rangers. Dylan Dodd looked like a promising pickup after he received an early season callup for the Braves but I ended up cutting him a few weeks later after Atlanta sent him back down to the minors. I like the improvements Luis Garíca has made to his approach at the plate and I believe in his potential to breakout this season so that was a pretty easy waiver claim after another team dropped him. I grabbed Kris Bubic after his two promising starts but his breakout was short lived after undergoing Tommy John surgery a week after adding him. Jonah Heim replaced Eric Haase as my backup catcher which has definitely worked out for the better. Tony Gonsolin was another waiver claim after another team dropped him and hopefully he can provide some upside for my pitching staff.

As for my cuts, Jack Leiter and Marco Luciano were both too expensive as prospects to keep around, especially considering the challenges they’ve faced in their development. I might regret cutting Nolan Jones if the Rockies ever give him a chance to play in the majors since he’s absolutely destroying Triple-A, but that chance might not ever materialize. When they did call him up, he sat on the bench for three games and then was sent back down without a single plate appearance. Kolten Wong’s and Oscar Gonzalez’s frigid cold starts to the season made them both easy cuts. After all that churn, I’ve got a single dollar in available cap space which puts me at a pretty significant disadvantage for the rest of the season. I’ll need to work on finding ways to clear some cap space so I can continue working the waiver wire as new breakouts popup.

The one trade I completed was a complete surprise. I woke up one morning with the offer in my inbox, sleepily considered it for a few moments, and then slammed the accept button. Kyle Manzardo is a good prospect and he’s gotten off to a strong start in Triple-A this year, but his path to the majors is currently blocked. I picked him up in the draft for exactly this reason; he had some helium as a prospect and I knew I could probably gain a pretty solid piece for him in the middle of the season. I just didn’t expect it to come so soon. Jazz Chisholm hasn’t gotten off to a strong start this year — his 37.8% strikeout rate is particularly concerning — but the talent is certainly there and his salary makes him an easy keeper if he finds a way to repeat his breakout from last year. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take with the added benefit of him possibly impacting my team this year.

With Harper’s return looming, Chisholm and Gonsolin raising the potential ceiling of my roster, and all the breakouts hitting at once, this team is in a much better position than should be expected at this point in the rebuilding cycle. I’m not sure the roster is good enough to challenge for a top-3 spot in the standings yet, but the foundation I’ve built is definitely solid enough to luck my way into contention if things continue going well. I’ll have to fight against the urge to make a series of “win now” moves this summer if I’m still stuck inside the large pack of teams in the middle of the standings. That might give me an edge over those other mid-tier teams, but it would be a big risk and a potential setback for the work I’ve been doing to prepare my team for the future.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 28–30

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 28–30
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
TOR 0.326 105 SEA 0.303
MIN 0.306 96 KCR 0.272
DET 0.268 93 BAL 0.331
MIA 0.299 93 CHC 0.350
WSN 0.294 104 PIT 0.334
BOS 0.333 100 CLE 0.292
NYM 0.326 97 ATL 0.345
CHW 0.299 108 TBR 0.385
TEX 0.343 101 NYY 0.308
HOU 0.319 102 PHI 0.344
MIL 0.324 103 LAA 0.326
COL 0.301 111 ARI 0.318
OAK 0.302 91 CIN 0.298
LAD 0.341 107 STL 0.338
SDP 0.301 98 SFG 0.321
Giants-Padres play in Mexico City

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

It’s a pretty rough slate of matchups this weekend. It doesn’t help that the Giants and Padres are playing in Mexico City which is at a higher altitude than Denver. The ball should be flying in that short two-game series.

Teams with easier schedules include the A’s, Cubs, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, Reds, and Royals.

Teams with tougher schedules include the aforementioned Giants and Padres and also the Angels, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Rockies, White Sox. and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Kyle Muller 49.68% CIN 0.298 5.31 3.4% 1.14
Nick Pivetta 31.73% CLE 0.292 5.16 15.9% 1.83
Dean Kremer 9.30% DET 0.268 6.57 11.3% 2.55
Vince Velasquez 0.96% WSN 0.294 4.12 13.3% 1.03
Caleb Kilian? 0.32% MIA 0.299 4.17 11.1%
Kilian’s stats from FanGraphs Depth Charts projections

Despite all those poor matchups, there are a handful of starter’s I’m comfortable recommending. All three of the A’s starters scheduled to take the mound during their home series against the Reds fall below our 50% owned threshold. I’m recommending Kyle Muller again, but if you want to roll the dice with Ken Waldichuk or possibly even Drew Rucinski 루친스키, you could drip them into your lineups.

Nick Pivetta bounced back after a rough start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Last weekend, he held the Brewers to three runs in 5.2 innings, striking out seven and walking just one. He draws the Guardians at home this weekend and that should be a pretty easy matchup for him since Cleveland’s offense hasn’t really started clicking yet.

Dean Kremer followed up his gem of a start against the Nationals with a decent start against the Red Sox yesterday. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings, striking out five. He did allow a pair of home runs which has been a huge issue for him. The Tigers simply aren’t hitting for power right now and the Orioles will be playing in cavernous Comerica Park. This is a matchup that should go the way his one against the Nationals did.

After two rough starts to open the season, Vince Velasquez has actually been pitching pretty well for the red-hot Pirates. He shut out the Cardinals and Reds and escaped Coors Field with just three runs allowed. Across his last three starts, he’s earned 6.7 points per inning pitched. He’s scheduled to start against the Nationals on Saturday.

The final recommendation is a little up in the air. The Cubs will need to call up a starter to take Jameson Taillon’s spot in the rotation this weekend but it’s a little unclear who it’ll be. Caleb Kilian or Adrian Sampson 샘슨 make the most sense with the former being listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid. Whoever it ends up being, they’ll have a nice matchup against the Marlins in Miami.

Recap: April 21–23

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Tyler Wells 7 51.0 7.29
Kyle Gibson 6.1 42.4 6.69
Zach Plesac 5 15.0 3.00
Hunter Gaddis N/A
Bailey Falter N/A
Total 18.1 108.4 5.91
Season Total 244.1 848.7 3.47

Two clear wins from the two Orioles starters make this a pretty good week. Hunter Gaddis ended up relegated to long relief and then to the minors and Bailey Falter’s start was pushed back to today.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 24–27

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 24–27
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
PHI 0.340 106 SEA 0.302
CLE 0.296 101 COL 0.311
BAL 0.343 95 BOS 0.330
TBR 0.389 94 HOU 0.318
CIN 0.311 116 TEX 0.328
TOR 0.324 105 CHW 0.311
ATL 0.348 98 MIA 0.304
MIN 0.300 96 NYY 0.322
MIL 0.329 103 DET 0.277
LAA 0.316 107 OAK 0.292
ARI 0.318 94 KCR 0.264
SFG 0.328 90 STL 0.349
PIT 0.340 95 LAD 0.347
NYM 0.330 97 WSN 0.294
CHC 0.347 98 SDP 0.308

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with easier schedules include the Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mets, Royals, and Yankees.

Teams with tougher schedules include the A’s, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, Tigers, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Brad Keller 49.36% ARI 0.318 4.37 5.7% 0.43
Jhony Brito 40.06% MIN 0.300 4.12 6.3% 0.60
Kyle Gibson 33.01% DET 0.277 4.76 7.4% 1.14
José Suarez 29.49% OAK 0.292 6.15 0.0% 1.54
Zach Plesac 13.46% COL 0.311 4.55 10.0% 1.38
Griffin Canning 8.33% OAK 0.292 4.19 12.2% 0.87
Colin Rea 0.32% DET 0.277 4.16 11.9% 0.84

Brad Keller sits just below our 50% ownership cutoff and he’s been a common recommendation in these columns this year. He’s continued to struggle with his command early this season but he’s also only given up a single home run and just 14 hits in 21 innings. He gets a nice matchup against the Diamondbacks in their dinger suppressing ballpark next week.

Another common recommendation, Kyle Gibson lines up to face the Tigers two starts in a row, once this weekend and again on Thursday. His last start against the White Sox didn’t go super well — four runs on seven hits and two walks with just a single strikeout in 5.1 innings — but the other three starts he’s made this season have been solid. His two-step against Detroit is just too good to pass up.

Colin Rea is also lined up to face the Tigers next week. He’s been a serviceable starter for the Brewers after Brandon Woodruff went down with his shoulder injury. He had a pretty good season in Japan last year and has looked decent in his return to the States. He held the Padres to a single run across 5.2 innings in his first start but was knocked around by the Mariners in his second.

José Suarez and Griffin Canning are scheduled to face the A’s at home next week. That’s a pretty juicy matchup, but beware the high home run park factor of Angel Stadium. Suarez hasn’t been good this year, with a walk rate that matches his strikeout rate. A date against Oakland seems like a good candidate for a get-right start. Canning is a bit more interesting. Injuries derailed a very promising start to his career over the last few years. He’s healthy and has made a couple of solid starts so far this year.

Jhony Brito bounced back from his ugly start against the Twins by holding the Angels to just a single run across 4.1 innings on Wednesday. He’s scheduled to face Minnesota again next week and will be looking to improve on his seven-run disaster the last time he faced them.

Recap: April 17–20

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Ken Waldichuk 5 25.0 5.00
Michael Wacha 4 6.6 1.65
Brad Keller 4 10.8 2.70
Dean Kremer 6.2 47.9 7.19
Matt Strahm 5.1 35.4 6.63
Hunter Gaddis 5 15.2 3.04
Peyton Battenfield 6 25.3 4.22
Total 36 166.2 4.62
Season Total 226 740.4 3.28

A really good week with four clear wins and no obvious losses. Keller’s start against the Rangers was dragged down by the five walks he allowed and Michael Wacha just hasn’t been able to replicate the magic he showed in his second start of the season against the Braves.