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Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Ottoneu Bold Predictions

by
March 6, 2026
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

It’s bold prediction week here at RotoGraphs. Last year, I got 3.5 of my bold predictions correct which was a really strong showing. Maybe I need to go bolder — or maybe I just got lucky.

Here are five pitcher predictions and five hitter predictions; hopefully they’ll be of some use to you as the season starts up. Alongside the predictions, I’ve also included some draft data from the current offseason to get a better sense of how these players are being valued by the Ottoneu community right now.

1. George Kirby is a top-15 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $21.1
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $27.5

Upon first glance, this might not seem like such a bold prediction based on George Kirby’s reputation. I think the market perceives him as an ace thanks to his phenomenal strikeout-to-walk ratio and clear top tier value in 5×5 leagues. But consider his record in Ottoneu points leagues: he’s never broken 5.0 P/IP in a single season and he topped out as the 22nd ranked SP by P/IP in 2023. His current Depth Charts projections have him at 4.9 P/IP, an exact match for what he accomplished during his first three seasons in the league and 22nd among all SP.

To break into the top-15, Kirby is going to have to figure out how to either boost his strikeout rate or cut back on his home run rate. Probably a mix of both. Last year, Kirby dealt with a spring shoulder injury that cost him two months of the season. Once he returned, his arm angle was eight degrees lower and his trademark pinpoint command was a little compromised. One hidden benefit of the lower arm angle was a flatter fastball and some additional arm-side movement for his secondaries. Both his slider and curveball had career-high whiff rates last year and if he can maintain and improve on those changed mechanics, maybe his strikeout rate can steadily tick upwards again in 2026.

As for his home run rate, Kirby actually ran the best xFIP of his career last year. His home run rate was about 2.5 points above his career norm and the culprit was likely poorer command of his two fastballs. His four-seamer has always been a little home run prone since he likes to elevate it up in the zone so often, but he allowed six homers off his sinker last year after allowing six total across his first three seasons in the big leagues.

2. Ryne Nelson is a top-25 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.2
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $3.8

When you open up the Baseball Savant pitch arsenal leaderboard, Tarik Skubal’s changeup leads the way with a +25 run value. That checks out as it’s an absolutely devastating pitch. The next most valuable pitch in baseball is Ryne Nelson’s four-seam fastball and I can’t say I expected to see that. The whiff rate on the pitch is a little below league average for a four-seamer so Nelson is racking up all that run value by limiting the amount of damage done on contact off the pitch. There are some caveats to think about here. Run value is a counting stat and Nelson threw his heater a lot — about 61.9% of the time. By RV/100, it was the 54th best pitch at 1.5 RV/100, which is still very good but not an extreme outlier.

The problem for Nelson is that he doesn’t have a great secondary pitch to pair with his hard fastball. He made some improvements to his slider and curveball last year but one of those breaking balls needs to take another step forward to raise his overall profile. To break into the top 25, he’d essentially need to break 5.0 P/IP — he landed at 4.8 in 2025. I think he’ll continue to suppress damaging contact with his heater and find a way to earn a few more whiffs with his secondary pitches this year.

3. Janson Junk is a top-30 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.3
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.1

Ok, this one might not be so bold because Janson Junk was already a top-30 SP last year, sneaking in at 26th with 4.8 P/IP over 110 innings. But 22.2 of those innings came as a reliever; Junk posted a 4.4 P/IP over 87.1 innings as a starter which would have ranked somewhere around 50th. From there, maybe this prediction seems a little more bold.

What I like about Junk is that he managed to harness his command to an elite level in 2025; among all pitchers with at least 100 IP, his 2.9% walk rate was the lowest in baseball by a pretty wide margin. The downside is, like Nelson above, he doesn’t really have a secondary pitch to rack up tons of swings and misses. That’s why his strikeout rate was just 17.2% despite an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio that approached six.

The Roster Resource depth charts have Junk penciled in as a long reliever in the Marlins bullpen, but there’s enough injury question marks in Miami’s rotation that I think Junk will eventually get a shot at starting again. The command improvements he made last year provide enough of a solid foundation that he can build off of. For a $1 flier at the end of your auction, that’s not a bad bet to make.

4. Joey Cantillo scores the most total points among Guardians starting pitchers
Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.3
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $4.4

The Guardians starting rotation is filled with a ton of promising young pitchers; Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen로건 are all already well established in the big leagues, but Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo, and Parker Messick are all vying to make a bigger impact in the majors in 2026. Of that group of six youngsters, I think Cantillo has the best shot at actually breaking out in a big way this year.

It all starts with his changeup. That pitch returned a whiff rate of nearly 50% in 2025 thanks to a huge velocity differential from his heater. His breaking balls are decent — his curve got better results last year but he’s testing out a new grip on his slider this spring that could help that pitch take a step forward. The knock against him is his command, which is below average at best. He was able to cut his walk rate slightly once he was inserted into the Guardians rotation in July last year. With just a little improvement to his command and maybe a better breaking ball, Cantillo has an opportunity to take a big step forward this year.

The other half of this prediction requires Williams, Bibee, and the rest of the Guardians starters to stumble a bit — or at least fall short of Cantillo’s breakout. I think there are enough questions about each of them that I’m willing to bet that Cantillo rises to the top of the pile.

5. Chad Patrick scores the second most total points among Brewers starting pitchers
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.4
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.2

I hedged this prediction just a little because there should be a lot of moving parts to the Brewers rotation this year, but I think Chad Patrick will stick in the big leagues through the whole year. Because here’s the thing, this prediction was already proven correct during the first half of last year; Patrick scored 420 points before the All-Star break, second most on the Brewers behind Freddy Peralta. Then he was pushed out of the rotation and back to Triple-A for a significant portion of the second half of the season once the Brewers pitching staff got healthy.

For his part, Patrick has a really strong repertoire. By Stuff+, he has three above average pitches and his cutter is one of the best in baseball. He had a fantastic 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio last year and a 3.53 FIP that exactly matched his top line results by ERA.

As for the rest of Milwaukee’s rotation, I’m not sure Brandon Woodruff can make it through an entire season, Jacob Misiorowski still has to overcome his command issues, and the rest of the rotation is young and unproven. Some of those youngsters have brighter prospect pedigrees than Patrick ever had, but they still need to establish themselves in the big leagues and Patrick has already done that.

6. Mookie Betts scores the most total points among all SS
Ottoneu Average Salary: $35.7
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $32.9

This is as much a bet on Mookie Betts as it is a bet against Bobby Witt Jr. — although Witt wasn’t even the top scoring SS in 2025, Geraldo Perdomo was. It’s no secret that Betts’s entire season last year was derailed by the mysterious illness he caught right before the team’s spring trip to Japan. There was about a month and a half during the late summer where Betts was producing like he had at his peak which gives me some hope that he’ll be able to bounce back in a big way this year now that he’s had a full offseason to get healthy. I have some lingering concerns; namely, his contact quality dropped off pretty significantly, though that could be explained away by the loss of strength that stemmed from his spring illness.

To reach the top of the pile at shortstop, Betts will probably need to score at least 1,000 points or more. He’s done that four times in his career, and if you give him credit for the 16 games he played at short in 2023, he actually led the position in scoring that season. I have nothing against Witt but he struggled to match his otherworldly production from 2024 last year and I think that’s more in line with his true talent than his outrageous line from that breakout season.

7. Alec Bohm is a top-5 3B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.3
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $5.7

Alec Bohm was one of the guys I was on the fence about keeping this offseason. I quote, “An abysmal first month of the season is bringing down Alec Bohm’s overall numbers from 2025. From May 1 through the end of the season, he posted a .308/.356/.453 slash line, good for a 124 wRC+ and 5.4 P/G.” That P/G over those five months would have landed him ninth among all 3B last year.

I also noted that Bohm’s hot finish to the season wasn’t driven by any improvement to his underlying contact quality, but simply a career-high contact rate. More balls in play led to more positive results, even if he continued to pound the ball into the ground at too high a rate. Instead of embracing the uncertainty in his profile, I’ve decided to bet on the improvements he made to his contact rate. That’s a pretty significant change to his profile, and if he’s able to figure out how to elevate his contact just a little more often, a huge breakout could be in the cards.

8. Bryson Stott is a top-5 2B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.4
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $6.8

The argument for Bryson Stott goes a lot like the argument for Bohm above. During the second half of the season, Stott posted a 135 wRC+ and 5.1 P/G in Ottoneu. Across a full season, that would have landed him around seventh among all 2B. That late season improvement stemmed from a pretty dramatic swing change. He was able to improve the quality of his contact while still maintaining his excellent plate discipline.

Assuming the new swing mechanics carry over to this year, Stott looks well positioned for a breakout in 2026. Plus, Michael Baumann also identified Stott as a potential breakout when looking for players with similar characteristics to Geraldo Perdomo and Maikel Garcia prior to their own breakouts.

9. Spencer Horwitz is a top-12 1B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.1
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.8

I really liked Spencer Horwitz as a sleeper last year because he had 2B eligibility and looked like he was going to have a shot at full-time at-bats after an offseason trade to Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, wrist surgery derailed the start of his season and it took a while for his bat to get going once he made it back to the majors. During the second half of the season, he posted a 154 wRC+ and put up 5.8 P/G in Ottoneu. That would have ranked 10th among qualified 1B across the full season.

His contact quality doesn’t stand out that much but he does have an excellent approach at the plate. That gives him a solid floor and I think a fully healthy wrist will help him take a big step forward this year. The potential risk to this prediction is that he’s absolutely atrocious against left-handed pitching — his career platoon split is nearly 100 points of wOBA. If he’s relegated to the strong side of a platoon and makes a bunch of pinch hit appearances in games that he doesn’t start, his P/G will likely take a pretty big hit. Practically, you can just stash him on your fantasy team’s bench whenever the Pirates are facing a lefty, but for this prediction to come true, he needs to improve his production against same-handed pitching and figure out a way to stay out of a platoon situation.

10. Two of Konnor Griffin, Kevin McGonigle, or JJ Wetherholt will not be starting caliber players at shortstop in 2025

Just like my bold prediction about Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell last year (which I got half right), I’m throwing some cold water on the hype surrounding these three top prospects. I did hedge a little bit because I didn’t want to be too much of a downer, but it’s really hard to make the jump from the minor leagues to the majors. It certainly seems like the Pirates, Tigers, and Cardinals are going to give these three a shot to break into the big leagues this year, probably right out of spring training, but their success should not be simply assumed to be a guarantee. Griffin is only 19! McGonigle only has 206 plate appearances above High-A! Wetherholt only has a little over 600 total plate appearances as a professional! The odds are that all three of these guys will end up being very good ballplayers eventually, but it might be a lot to ask of them to be among the best at their position right off the bat in 2026.


Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Starting Pitchers

by
February 24, 2026
Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push shifts to the mound with a look at starting pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/24/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $3-$5 and above. Updated tier placement for 23 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 28 players based on 2026 draft results.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Ottoneu Points SP Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Projected Pts Pts/IP Notes
$45-$54 1 Tarik Skubal 1190.9 6.17 Arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now. Dominant fastball and three swing-and-miss secondary pitches.
$45-$54 2 Paul Skenes 1106.5 6.05 Arguably better than Skubal and definitely younger. Strikeout rate took a tiny step backwards in 2025 and his fastball isn’t as dominant.
$36-$44 3 Garrett Crochet 1089.9 5.74 Proved health concerns were a thing of the past in 2025. Best slider in baseball but can be a little home run prone.
$28-$35 4 Chris Sale 877.6 5.81 Projected to be #3 pitcher by P/IP but there are injury and workload concerns.
$28-$35 5 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 862.7 5.53 Fantastic underlying skills, despite small bump in walk rate. Overall value hampered by volume concerns.
$28-$35 6 Cristopher Sánchez 1020.8 5.32 Followed up breakout 2024 with an ever better season in ’25. Pretty ideal profile for Ottoneu: high strikeouts, low walks, high groundball rate.
$28-$35 7 Logan Gilbert 880.9 5.24 Big spike in strikeout rate came with a bunch more home runs. His splitter is an incredible pitch, but the slider and fastball can get hit hard at times.
$28-$35 8 Logan Webb 1066.6 5.22 A metronome who got even better in 2025. Improved his strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate low and groundball rate high.
$21-$27 9 Cole Ragans 827.8 5.50 Might have been the hardest pitcher to rank. Major shoulder injury last year throws his health into question. Big improvements in his underlying skills — career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio — but BABIP ballooned over .350.
$21-$27 10 Shohei Ohtani 538.8 5.43 If Ohtani was only a pitcher, this is where he’d rank based on his P/IP ceiling. Of course, the question is how many innings he’ll actually pitch in 2026.
$21-$27 11 Tyler Glasnow 641.9 5.27 Another Dodgers starter with workload concerns, but more importantly, his walk rate spiked and strikeout rate fell in 2025. His slider took a significant step backwards.
$21-$27 12 Chase Burns 574.7 5.16 Massive ceiling we got a glimpse of in 2025. Is the repertoire deep enough to be successful as a frontline starter?
$21-$27 13 Kyle Bradish 663.3 5.15 Returned from Tommy John surgery to make 6 promising starts in 2025. All his skills looked intact.
$21-$27 14 Jacob deGrom 855.3 5.14 Finally healthy for an entire season but skills deteriorated a bit. Still very good, but not elite anymore.
$21-$27 15 Max Fried 940.5 5.14 Had an excellent debut season in New York. Almost as metronomic as Webb.
$21-$27 16 Hunter Brown 915.1 5.14 Followed up breakout 2024 with an ever better season in ’25. Strikeout rate increase wasn’t supported by enough additional whiffs.
$21-$27 17 Bryan Woo 903.7 5.11 Two fantastic fastballs and a developing repertoire of secondary weapons. Consistently good every week.
$21-$27 18 Nathan Eovaldi 772.4 5.02 Health is a big question but he put together his best season of his career in 2025 before getting sidelined.
$21-$27 19 Dylan Cease 893.0 5.00 Can be extremely inconsistent from start to start, but the strikeouts give him a solid foundation.
$21-$27 20 Framber Valdez 929.3 4.99 Elite groundball rate means fewer home runs — good in Ottoneu — but his strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped a bit in 2025.
$21-$27 21 George Kirby 820.8 4.96 Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Signature command slipped a little bit but he might have found a breaking ball that works for him.
$21-$27 22 Jesús Luzardo 840.7 4.94 Healthy in 2025 and put up a season very similar to his breakout in 2023.
$15-$20 23 Zack Wheeler 854.4 5.58 Thoracic outlet surgery throws his entire future up in the air — and he was already entering his age-36 season. Monitor his health reports in the spring.
$15-$20 24 Blake Snell 684.7 5.40 Strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since 2017 but was still excellent in limited innings. Like every Dodgers starter, the question is volume.
$15-$20 25 Hunter Greene 810.1 5.30 A groin injury derailed what was looking like a breakout season. Figured out how to locate his slider and his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved significantly.
$15-$20 26 Joe Ryan 795.3 4.87 Really struggled with a home run problem during the final two months of 2025 (12 HRs in 10 starts, 5.01 FIP). Fastball and secondaries all looked good, so it could have been just bad luck.
$15-$20 27 Sonny Gray 849.4 4.87 Veteran who has been able to stay effective as he ages. Fastball dipped below 92 mph in 2025 and new home park in Boston won’t do him any favors.
$15-$20 28 Freddy Peralta 823.1 4.85 Solid skills across the board but high fly ball rate leads to a few too many home runs.
$15-$20 29 Jacob Misiorowski 605.8 4.85 The raw stuff is undeniable but the lack of command is holding him back. Strikeout rate is high enough to offset the free passes but there are volume concerns too.
$15-$20 30 Eury Pérez 612.2 4.80 Up-and-down ceiling after returning from Tommy John surgery. Huge Stuff+ darling with a massive ceiling.
$15-$20 31 Drew Rasmussen 723.9 4.80 Despite workload limits, still pitched 150 innings in 2025 with solid underlying skills. Wore down towards the end of the season.
$15-$20 32 Nolan McLean 640.3 4.78 Brilliant debut at the end of the season in 2025. Managed to improve command in the big leagues to go along with high strikeout and groundball rates.
$15-$20 33 Nick Pivetta 817.9 4.75 Enjoyed a career-best season in 2025 thanks to a big drop in home runs allowed. Fly ball heavy batted ball profile is always dangerous.
$15-$20 34 Michael King 699.0 4.70 Shoulder injury derailed his season in 2025 but stikeout-to-walk ratio wasn’t too affected. Health still a question.
$15-$20 35 Ranger Suárez 744.0 4.66 Command improved in 2025 to go along with decent strikeout rate and good groundball rate.
$15-$20 36 Kevin Gausman 853.0 4.66 Bounced back a bit in 2025 with improved strikeout-to-walk ratio. BABIP allowed dropped to .262 which is likely to regress upwards.
$10-$14 37 Spencer Schwellenbach 701.6 5.03 Should be healthy to start 2026 after elbow fracture. Showed fantastic skills across two half seasons in ’24 and ’25.
$10-$14 38 Emmet Sheehan 612.3 5.03 Like every other Dodgers starter, he has workload concerns. Took a huge step forward in 2025 with a pair of fantastic secondary pitches.
$10-$14 39 Brandon Woodruff 622.0 4.86 Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Strikeout-to-walk ratio was fantastic despite a dip in overall Stuff+.
$10-$14 40 Kris Bubic 624.4 4.86 Breakout season interrupted by a shoulder injury in July. If he’s healthy, his underlying skills look solid.
$10-$14 41 Trey Yesavage 648.5 4.74 Incredible debut in September and through the playoffs. Super weird release point didn’t help his fastball but his splitted was a monster. Will the Blue Jays manage his workload in ’26?
$10-$14 42 Gerrit Cole 621.2 4.73 Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Track record speaks for itself but still questions about his skills returning after injury.
$10-$14 43 Spencer Strider 686.2 4.63 Didn’t regain his fastball after Tommy John surgery and his whole arsenal suffered. If the velocity is back, he could be a steal. If not, he might not even rise to this level of value.
$10-$14 44 Edward Cabrera 602.3 4.60 Finally figured out his command issues, dropped his walk rate by 4 points. Health is still a big question.
$10-$14 45 Nick Lodolo 659.8 4.57 Just had the best season of his career in 2025. Improved command and solid strikeout rate but needs to stay healthy.
$10-$14 46 MacKenzie Gore 734.3 4.57 Huge strikeout ceiling thanks to elite secondary pitches but wore down during the second half of 2025 (2.96 FIP in 1H, 5.49 in 2H).
$10-$14 47 Jack Flaherty 726.2 4.56 Strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped a bit in 2025 after resurgent season in ’24. Great breaking balls but can be a bit erratic.
$6-$9 48 Corbin Burnes 683.5 4.90 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Was struggling with his command in 2025 before the injury.
$6-$9 49 Justin Steele 541.2 4.80 Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. He was great for three years with his weird fastball but needs to prove he’s healthy.
$6-$9 50 Shane McClanahan 626.6 4.72 Hasn’t pitched since August 2023 thanks to Tommy John surgery and a triceps injury. I have no idea what to expect from him if he’s healthy (which isn’t a guarantee).
$6-$9 51 Connelly Early 373.3 4.65 Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. Currently buried on the Red Sox depth chart but should force his way into an opportunity sooner rather than later.
$6-$9 52 Braxton Ashcraft 561.0 4.65 Top prospect who finally got a shot to start in August. His fastball is merely okay but his secondaries look great. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
$6-$9 53 Grayson Rodriguez 552.5 4.64 Missed the entire 2025 season with multiple arm issues. Had shown some promising skills a few years ago but health throws it all into question. New home in Angels Stadium won’t help either.
$6-$9 54 José Soriano 730.5 4.59 Four swing-and-miss secondary pitches but can’t generate strikeouts because his pitch mix is too sinker heavy. Elite groundball rate provides a solid floor.
$6-$9 55 Carlos Rodón 767.9 4.58 Coming off offseason elbow surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Decent skills across the board when healthy.
$6-$9 56 Cam Schlittler 522.8 4.52 Excellent debut in 2025. Solid three pitch mix but lack of command hurts his ceiling a bit.
$6-$9 57 Jared Jones 457.8 4.49 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
$6-$9 58 Joey Cantillo 543.9 4.49 Looked great once he earned a chance to start in July. Command is a little shaky but has a legit weapon in his changeup.
$6-$9 59 Matthew Boyd 722.4 4.48 Finally healthy for the first time since 2019. Strikeout-to-walk ratio was excellent despite a lower strikeout rate.
$6-$9 60 Bubba Chandler 629.8 4.45 Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. His fastball looks elite, he’s got excellent command, but his secondaries need to develop a bit more. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
$6-$9 61 Cade Horton 562.6 4.43 Excellent debut in 2025 but a lot of his success seemed to be BABIP driven. Solid command, deep repertoire, great secondaries give him a decent floor and potential for high ceiling.
$6-$9 62 David Peterson 696.9 4.43 Decent skills across the board. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but command isn’t good enough to raise his ceiling too high.
$6-$9 63 Luis Castillo 786.8 4.42 Velocity dropped in 2025 and strikeout rate dropped 3 points for the second season in a row. Decent skills otherwise, but probably won’t reach his ceiling again.
$6-$9 64 Kodai Senga 552.5 4.41 Hamstring injury derailed his season and couldn’t get his mechanics right after returning. We’ve seen the ceiling, but I’m not sure he’ll bounce back.
$6-$9 65 Gavin Williams 696.5 4.40 Second half success was largely BABIP driven. Command is still lacking but his deep repertoire gives him something to build on.
$6-$9 66 Ryan Pepiot 702.1 4.40 Went through some big ups and downs in 2025 and was hurt by Steinbrenner Field. Decent skills across the board and should be better back in Tropicana Field.
$6-$9 67 Tanner Bibee 770.7 4.38 Despite strong Stuff+ grades, he never seemed to be able to put it all together in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 5 points and he allowed a bunch more home runs.
$6-$9 68 Trevor Rogers 636.8 4.37 Had an absolutely incredible run to finish 2025. Health will always be a question but showed off the same skills from his 2021 breakout.
$6-$9 69 Robbie Ray 734.2 4.33 Finally healthy after Tommy John surgery in 2023. Didn’t have the same strikeout ceiling we’ve been used to and his command was a little shaky.
$6-$9 70 Clay Holmes 640.2 4.32 The transition to the rotation worked out but he wore down as the season went on. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but strikeout-to-walk ratio is merely okay.
$6-$9 71 Zac Gallen 787.2 4.25 Suffered through the worst season of his career in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 4 points, but still could bounce back if he can figure out the whiff rate issues.
$6-$9 72 Sandy Alcantara 749.3 4.22 Got stronger as the season wore on. Strikeout rate ticked up and walk rate ticked down. We know what his ceiling looks like.
$6-$9 73 Tatsuya Imai 595.1 4.12 Coming over from NBP after a dominant season in 2025. Phenomenal slider earns plenty of whiffs, but command might be an issue.
$3-$5 74 Reynaldo López 608.3 4.81 Looked great in his return to the starting rotation in 2024 but shoulder injuries are no joke. How effective will he be and what will his workload look like?
$3-$5 75 Jonah Tong 417.2 4.71 Top prospect who had a bit of a rough debut in September. Currently buried on the Mets depth chart and needs a third pitch to raise his ceiling.
$3-$5 76 Reid Detmers 553.8 4.53 Returning to the starting rotation after a successful stint in the bullpen in 2025. Fastball-slider combo is dominant, but needs a third or fourth pitch to be successful.
$3-$5 77 Payton Tolle 345.0 4.52
$3-$5 78 Sean Manaea 584.4 4.49 Cut his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider. A career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio was great to see but he also suffered from a massive home run spike.
$3-$5 79 Joe Musgrove 594.1 4.48 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery but should be healthy for spring training. Solid skills across the board when healthy.
$3-$5 80 Braxton Garrett 541.4 4.43 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery but should be healthy for spring training. Enjoyed big breakout in 2023 before the injury but needs to prove he’s healthy after missing so much time.
$3-$5 81 Logan Henderson 540.1 4.39 Big strikeout potential, but questions about workload and the need for a third pitch. Penciled in as the Brewers fifth starter but faces a ton of competition from other top prospects.
$3-$5 82 Shane Bieber 526.3 4.36 Returned from Tommy John surgery to make 7 promising starts in 2025. All his skills looked intact but suffered from a home run problem.
$3-$5 83 Ian Seymour 441.9 4.33 Looked great once he earned a chance to start in August. Has an excellent changeup but might get squeezed out of the rotation to start the season.
$3-$5 84 Merrill Kelly 켈리 736.9 4.31 Sturdy veteran who shouldn’t hurt in any one category but doesn’t standout in any either.
$3-$5 85 Robert Gasser 393.8 4.30 Fighting for a spot in Milwaukee’s starting rotation. Health should be monitored after returning from Tommy John surgery late in 2025.
$3-$5 86 Cody Ponce 폰세 635.3 4.30 Returning to the US after winning the KBO MVP in 2025. Added velocity and a new changeup in Asia.
$3-$5 87 Michael Soroka 499.9 4.30 Had a nice run as a starter with the Nationals before getting traded to Chicago. Should have a spot in Arizona’s rotation, but there’s some risk he could be shifted to the bullpen.
$3-$5 88 Brandon Sproat 405.6 4.29 Fighting for a spot in Milwaukee’s starting rotation. Has a higher ceiling than Henderson or Gasser but maybe needs more development time to reach it.
$3-$5 89 Grant Holmes 396.6 4.28 He couldn’t replicate his surprise success from 2024 in ’25, but you might chalk that up to an elbow issue that cost him half the season. Needs to get the walks back under control.
$3-$5 90 Mike Burrows 529.7 4.28 Improved as the year went on in 2025 (5.09 FIP in 1H, 3.19 in 2H) and now in Houston with their player development group.
$3-$5 91 Tyler Mahle 515.0 4.27 Was finally healthy for half a season, and looked pretty good, but then got injured again in mid-June. San Francisco is a nice landing spot but health will always be a question.
$3-$5 92 Landen Roupp 477.9 4.26 Had a solid first full season in the rotation in 2025 somewhat derailed by a knee injury. Curveball is a legit weapon but needs a third or fourth pitch to thrive.
$3-$5 93 Shane Smith 667.3 4.26 A rare rule 5 success story in Chicago’s rotation. Decent peripherals all around though the ceiling might not be very high.
$3-$5 94 Ryne Nelson 658.4 4.24 His four-seam fastball is one of the best in baseball at mitigating hard contact. Needs to work on his secondary pitches to really take a step forward.
$3-$5 95 Chad Patrick 564.3 4.20 Great debut in 2025 before getting squeeze out of Milwaukee’s rotation. Deep arsenal with one of the best cutters in baseball as a foundation.
$3-$5 96 Shane Baz 649.5 4.19 Finally healthy for a full season in 2025 but results were up and down. Focused his arsenal on his legit curveball. Landing in Baltimore should help too.
$3-$5 97 Mitch Keller 738.5 4.19 Decent skills across the board and durable. Hasn’t been able to replicate the 25% K% from 2023 which limits his ceiling.
$3-$5 98 Bryce Miller 577.6 4.19 We know what his ceiling looks like from his breakout season in 2024, but an elbow injury derailed his season in ’25. Might have the highest ceiling of anyone in this tier.
$3-$5 99 Aaron Nola 689.5 4.18 Veteran slowly succumbing to Father Time. He’s been incredibly durable, which is valuable, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll ever get back to the ace he was a few years ago.
$3-$5 100 Luis Gil 446.2 4.18 A lat strain cost him more than half the season in 2025. Somehow manages to walk the tight rope of a double digit walk rate by limiting hard contact.
$3-$5 101 Parker Messick 479.8 4.17
$3-$5 102 Jack Leiter 606.4 4.16
$3-$5 103 Michael Wacha 683.0 4.13 Decent skills across the board and durable. Strikeout rate dropped to a career low in 2025. Pitch mix leaned away from his signature changeup for some reason.
$3-$5 104 Ryan Weathers 421.0 4.12
$3-$5 105 Yusei Kikuchi 707.4 4.10 Couldn’t replicate his mini-breakout from 2024 in Los Angeles. Strikeout rate dropped 5.5 points and the walk rate shot up again.
$3-$5 106 Will Warren 585.3 4.09 Ran out of steam during towards the end of 2025. Secondary pitches looked great during his excellent start to the season, hopefully has more endurance in ’26.
$3-$5 107 Noah Cameron 584.0 4.07 Great debut in 2025. Solid command and deep arsenal give him a high floor, but the strikeout rate is a little too low to give him a high ceiling.
$3-$5 108 Casey Mize 590.1 4.05 Followed up a healthy 2024 with a better season across the board in ’25. Fastball/splitter combo works well but needs a better third or fourth pitch to take a step forward.
$3-$5 109 Shota Imanaga 613.4 4.04 Big step backwards in his second season in Chicago. Strikeout rate dropped nearly 5 points and he allowed way too many home runs.
$3-$5 110 Andrew Abbott 650.0 4.04 Enjoyed a big breakout season in 2025. Suppresses hard contact with his fastball and changeup and slider get just enough whiffs.
$3-$5 111 Roki Sasaki 428.4 4.03 Suffered through a disaster of a season in his first year in Los Angeles. Big questions about his durability, lack of a third pitch, and command, but the underlying talent is still present.
$1-$2 112 Ben Brown 377.8 4.48
$1-$2 113 Kyle Leahy 458.2 4.41
$1-$2 114 Joe Boyle 399.6 4.40
$1-$2 115 DJ Herz 308.8 4.38 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
$1-$2 116 Kai-Wei Teng 238.1 4.28
$1-$2 117 Ricky Tiedemann 177.0 4.25
$1-$2 118 Hurston Waldrep 537.8 4.23
$1-$2 119 Thomas White 344.2 4.22
$1-$2 120 Foster Griffin 566.8 4.20
$1-$2 121 Brady Singer 718.4 4.18
$1-$2 122 Steven Matz 436.5 4.18
$1-$2 123 Janson Junk 446.7 4.17 Took a big step forward in 2025 by cutting his walk rate to just 2.9%. His strikeout rate isn’t great and he gives up a little too much hard contact, but the elite command gives him a nice floor.
$1-$2 124 Jacob Lopez 495.2 4.17
$1-$2 125 Johan Oviedo 446.6 4.14
$1-$2 126 Ryan Weiss 와이스 463.7 4.14
$1-$2 127 Taj Bradley 568.3 4.12
$1-$2 128 Kyle Harrison 354.4 4.11
$1-$2 129 Brayan Bello 665.3 4.11
$1-$2 130 Chris Bassitt 685.1 4.10
$1-$2 131 Troy Melton 449.3 4.10
$1-$2 132 Robby Snelling 501.9 4.10
$1-$2 133 Jacob Latz 380.4 4.10
$1-$2 134 Quinn Priester 622.0 4.08
$1-$2 135 Zebby Matthews 443.5 4.08
$1-$2 136 Cade Cavalli 513.7 4.05
$1-$2 137 Brandon Pfaadt 692.4 4.03
$1-$2 138 Nick Martinez 605.6 4.01
$1-$2 139 Michael McGreevy 528.3 3.98
$1-$2 140 Dustin May 544.6 3.96
$1-$2 141 Seth Lugo 638.1 3.95
$1-$2 142 Kumar Rocker 383.4 3.92
$1-$2 143 Bailey Ober 587.4 3.90
$1-$2 144 Matthew Liberatore 550.3 3.90
$1-$2 145 Spencer Arrighetti 388.2 3.89
$1-$2 146 Max Meyer 431.3 3.81
$1-$2 147 Rhett Lowder 337.5 3.75
$1-$2 148 Mick Abel 368.0 3.74
$1-$2 149 Zach Eflin 497.2 3.69
$1-$2 150 Andrew Painter 452.4 3.61
$0-$1 151 Seth Hernandez #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 152 Kade Anderson #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 153 Liam Doyle #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 154 Jamie Arnold #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 155 Gage Jump #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 156 Jarlin Susana #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 157 Tyler Bremner #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 158 Pablo López 751.5 4.77 Elbow injury in 2025 turned out to be minor, returned to make 3 starts in September. (Update: the elbow injury was actually more serious.)
$0-$1 159 Reese Olson 551.0 4.70 Will be returning from a shoulder injury but should be healthy for spring training. (Update: he was not healthy for spring training.)
$0-$1 160 Tylor Megill 394.8 4.64
$0-$1 161 Clarke Schmidt 385.0 4.57
$0-$1 162 AJ Smith-Shawver 235.5 4.29
$0-$1 163 David Festa 275.3 4.24
$0-$1 164 Stephen Kolek 423.7 4.19
$0-$1 165 Christian Scott 205.9 4.17
$0-$1 166 Tanner Houck 515.3 4.15
$0-$1 167 Keaton Winn 202.0 4.14
$0-$1 168 Patrick Sandoval 370.9 4.13
$0-$1 169 Cody Bradford 262.9 4.13
$0-$1 170 Didier Fuentes 308.4 4.13
$0-$1 171 Kutter Crawford 520.5 4.09
$0-$1 172 Tobias Myers 381.8 4.06
$0-$1 173 Eric Lauer 라우어 359.6 4.01
$0-$1 174 Trevor McDonald 380.3 3.94
$0-$1 175 AJ Blubaugh 297.1 3.93
$0-$1 176 Dean Kremer 608.9 3.91
$0-$1 177 Adrian Houser 504.2 3.91
$0-$1 178 Simeon Woods Richardson 485.5 3.90
$0-$1 179 Hayden Birdsong 295.9 3.90
$0-$1 180 Luis Severino 654.0 3.90
$0-$1 181 Quinn Mathews 290.7 3.88
$0-$1 182 Javier Assad 376.9 3.88
$0-$1 183 Ryan Bergert 311.3 3.87
$0-$1 184 Blade Tidwell 298.5 3.87
$0-$1 185 Sawyer Gipson-Long 215.1 3.82
$0-$1 186 Luis Morales 408.0 3.81
$0-$1 187 Colin Rea 520.1 3.79
$0-$1 188 Jameson Taillon 568.6 3.78
$0-$1 189 Cade Povich 369.9 3.78
$0-$1 190 Brad Lord 527.1 3.76
$0-$1 191 Aaron Civale 489.9 3.76
$0-$1 192 Hunter Dobbins 315.1 3.75
$0-$1 193 Tyler Wells 342.6 3.75
$0-$1 194 Max Scherzer 419.6 3.75
$0-$1 195 Andre Pallante 541.6 3.74
$0-$1 196 Noah Schultz 251.7 3.72
$0-$1 197 Yilber Díaz 211.5 3.72
$0-$1 198 José Berríos 588.4 3.71
$0-$1 199 Lucas Giolito 568.5 3.65
$0-$1 200 Cristian Javier 457.9 3.63
$0-$1 201 Slade Cecconi 485.7 3.61
$0-$1 202 Jeffrey Springs 585.6 3.61
$0-$1 203 Eduardo Rodriguez 500.7 3.59
$0-$1 240 Richard Fitts 328.5 3.56
$0-$1 204 Chase Dollander 363.2 3.09
$0-$1 205 Jackson Jobe 190.5 3.05
$0 206 Hagen Smith #N/A #N/A
$0 207 Brandon Walter 262.8 4.38
$0 208 DL Hall 215.5 4.29
$0 209 Ronel Blanco 473.0 4.28
$0 210 Alex Cobb 367.8 4.11
$0 211 Yu Darvish 352.2 4.07
$0 212 Cooper Criswell 309.0 4.02
$0 213 J.T. Ginn 361.0 3.99
$0 214 John Means 111.8 3.94
$0 215 Gavin Stone 386.3 3.94
$0 216 Jon Gray 390.1 3.92
$0 217 Justin Verlander 547.1 3.91
$0 218 Hayden Wesneski 224.7 3.87
$0 219 Jordan Wicks 232.3 3.87
$0 220 Jhony Brito 215.1 3.86
$0 221 Ryan Yarbrough 278.7 3.78
$0 222 Charlie Morton 491.0 3.74
$0 223 Ty Madden 210.2 3.71
$0 224 Matt Waldron 385.0 3.68
$0 225 Joey Wentz 301.3 3.68
$0 226 Joe Ross 211.3 3.68
$0 227 Bryce Elder 478.7 3.68
$0 228 Yoendrys Gómez 299.2 3.67
$0 229 Jordan Montgomery 408.8 3.65
$0 230 Paul Blackburn 254.8 3.63
$0 231 Luis Medina 355.2 3.63
$0 232 Davis Martin 506.8 3.62
$0 233 Nestor Cortes 442.7 3.59
$0 234 Spencer Turnbull 233.7 3.58
$0 235 Kyle Wright 305.7 3.58
$0 236 Griffin Canning 469.3 3.58
$0 237 Kyle Hart 하트 270.1 3.57
$0 238 Zack Littell 606.2 3.56
$0 239 Lance McCullers Jr. 357.8 3.56
$0 241 Chayce McDermott 213.4 3.56
$0 242 Anthony Kay 471.2 3.55
$0 243 Jose Quintana 501.0 3.54
$0 244 Ben Lively 라이블리 365.3 3.52
$0 245 Ryan Gusto 318.2 3.52
$0 246 Mason Barnett 299.0 3.51
$0 247 Mitch Spence 369.3 3.51
$0 248 Logan Evans 296.9 3.50
$0 249 Sean Burke 483.4 3.46
$0 250 Logan Allen로건 464.8 3.46
$0 251 Osvaldo Bido 252.4 3.46
$0 252 J.P. France 242.8 3.46
$0 253 Carson Seymour 237.3 3.46
$0 254 Erick Fedde 페디 509.0 3.45
$0 255 Alek Manoah 333.1 3.44
$0 256 Mitch Farris 273.0 3.44
$0 257 Bailey Falter 387.5 3.42
$0 258 Martín Pérez 395.4 3.41
$0 259 Emerson Hancock 294.9 3.40
$0 260 Carson Whisenhunt 249.1 3.40
$0 261 Mitchell Parker 476.9 3.39
$0 262 Ryan Feltner 399.3 3.39
$0 263 Keider Montero 333.4 3.39
$0 264 Patrick Corbin 513.0 3.38
$0 265 Michael Lorenzen 473.1 3.38
$0 266 Marcus Stroman 408.2 3.35
$0 267 JP Sears 491.7 3.35
$0 268 Bobby Miller 253.9 3.35
$0 269 Bowden Francis 236.4 3.34
$0 270 Landon Knack 256.3 3.29
$0 271 Randy Vasquez 428.2 3.26
$0 272 Jason Alexander 259.5 3.24
$0 273 Josiah Gray 395.7 3.24
$0 274 Colton Gordon 283.0 3.21
$0 275 Chris Paddack 412.3 3.20
$0 276 José Urquidy 337.4 3.20
$0 277 Miles Mikolas 488.3 3.19
$0 278 Jonathan Cannon 367.2 3.18
$0 279 Brandon Young 190.3 3.17
$0 280 Drew Thorpe 219.5 3.16
$0 281 Frankie Montas 334.5 3.15
$0 282 Mason Black 229.0 3.14
$0 283 Caden Dana 287.0 3.14
$0 284 Jake Irvin 521.4 3.11
$0 285 Kyle Freeland 501.2 3.09
$0 286 Tyler Anderson 444.8 3.04
$0 287 Cal Quantrill 346.3 3.02
$0 288 McCade Brown 212.8 2.91
$0 289 Walker Buehler 340.9 2.86
$0 290 Tomoyuki Sugano 417.9 2.86
$0 291 Taijuan Walker 329.3 2.74
$0 292 Germán Márquez 336.4 2.60
$0 293 Gunnar Hoglund 140.8 2.59
$0 294 Austin Gomber 274.1 2.58
$0 295 Tanner Gordon 281.8 2.51
$0 296 Antonio Senzatela 208.3 2.01

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Outfield

by
February 20, 2026
Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

After starting with the second largest position group last week, the Ottoneu rankings push continues with the largest position group this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/20/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 21 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 16 players based on 2026 draft results.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 75-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points OF Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Aaron Judge OF 1325.5 2.03 The best hitter in baseball and showing no signs of slowing down.
$55-$65 2 Juan Soto OF 1160.9 1.70 Despite the slow start in his first season in New York, still finished the season as the third most valuable player in Ottoneu.
$45-$54 3 Yordan Alvarez OF 857.2 1.68 Unquestionably productive when healthy, but has never played in more than 150 games in a single season and has averaged just 118 games per season over the last five years.
$45-$54 4 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF 915.8 1.64 Skills all looked intact after he returned from his second major knee injury in late May. Lack of SB shouldn’t be an issue in FGpts.
$36-$44 5 Kyle Tucker OF 868.7 1.51 Should be healthy in 2026 after a finger injury derailed his 2H in ’25. Only question is where he’ll sign — he’ll produce wherever he lands.
$36-$44 6 Kyle Schwarber OF 1011.6 1.48 Even though he re-signed with the Phillies, it’s hard to imagine him repeating his career year from 2025.
$36-$44 7 Corbin Carroll OF 935.2 1.45 Contact quality dramatically improved last year. Could he take another step forward?
$28-$35 8 Brent Rooker OF 911.8 1.42 Plate discipline continued to improve in 2025, and contact quality was still excellent, but wOBA still fell by nearly 50 points. I’m looking for a bounce back in ’26.
$28-$35 9 Fernando Tatis Jr. OF 886.1 1.41 Probably won’t return to the .400 wOBAs he posted early in his career, still very productive with .350 wOBAs.
$28-$35 10 James Wood OF 817.6 1.35 Despite second half slump (150 wRC+ in 1H, 93 in 2H), ceiling is extremely high.
$28-$35 11 Julio Rodríguez OF 885.6 1.33 Still hits too many groundballs, but improved his strikeout rate in 2025. Batted ball quality is still there, just needs to elevate more.
$28-$35 12 Roman Anthony OF 684.3 1.32 Extremely impressive big league debut cut short by injury. Could have highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$21-$27 13 Byron Buxton OF 714.2 1.45 Produces like a top 10 OF by Pts/PA but the question is always how many games will he play. 2025 was the first time he had more than 500 PAs since 2017.
$21-$27 14 George Springer OF 791.0 1.34 How much do you trust his rebound? Significant skill changes drove improvements, but he’s entering his age-36 season.
$21-$27 15 Riley Greene OF 813.7 1.33 Broke out wiht 36 HR in 2025, but strikeout rate climbed over 30%. Still starts against LHP, but very unproductive.
$21-$27 16 Seiya Suzuki OF 805.1 1.32 Contact quality still excellent despite second half slump. Plus he stayed healthy all season long.
$21-$27 17 Mike Trout OF 641.5 1.31 How the mighty have fallen. Power output significantly dropped but managed to play more than 130 games for the first time since 2019.
$21-$27 18 Wyatt Langford OF 748.3 1.28 Prospect hype placed too high expectations on him. Slower to develop but still very good player and getting better.
$21-$27 19 Jackson Chourio OF 763.2 1.27 One of the youngest players in baseball with two good seasons to start his career. Still waiting for a big step forward.
$15-$20 20 Kyle Stowers OF 632.1 1.32 Breakout season in 2025 cut short by injury. All the underlying metrics look solid, needs to prove it in ’26.
$15-$20 21 Jarren Duran OF 829.5 1.29 Issues against LHP keep his ceiling lower than you’d think. Hard to pay more than $20 for what is essentially a part-time player.
$15-$20 22 Tyler Soderstrom 1B/OF 686.2 1.27 Big breakout wasn’t a Sacramento mirage (-9 point wOBA home/road split). Adding OF eligibility definitely helps his value.
$15-$20 23 Christian Yelich OF 716.5 1.26 Good all around player. Completely healthy season after serious back injury cut 2024 short.
$15-$20 24 Cody Bellinger OF 765.6 1.26 Could be ranked a tier lower depending on where he signs. Big beneficiary of Yankee Stadium’s short porch (76 point wOBA home/away split)
$15-$20 25 Jackson Merrill OF 701.1 1.26 Five point increase in strikeout rate led to 20 point drop in wOBA. Contact quality remained solid.
$15-$20 26 Teoscar Hernández OF 727.3 1.25 Barrell rate down. Walk rate down. Feels like 2024 was the outlier between two disappointing seasons.
$10-$14 27 Matt Wallner OF 539.8 1.29 No platoon issues last year despite reputation. BABIP dropped 161 points last year, should be better in ’26.
$10-$14 28 Kerry Carpenter OF 569.7 1.29 Crushes RHP. Nearly unplayable against LHP. Probably won’t repeat the highs of 2024.
$10-$14 29 Wilyer Abreu OF 552.9 1.24 Big gains in contact rate while improving barrel rate. Top line results didn’t follow underlying metrics, but could take step forward in ’26.
$10-$14 30 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF 712.7 1.24 131 wRC+ in 1H, 72 in 2H. Which is the real Pete? Underlying skills stayed stable throughout the year — maybe 2H slump was just bad luck?
$10-$14 31 Taylor Ward OF 760.1 1.22 Traded away from home run friendly Angels Stadium to unfriendly Camden Yards. Solid hitter but a little worried about new outlook.
$10-$14 32 Jo Adell OF 641.5 1.21 Big breakout fueled by big contact quality gains. Plate approach still poor which limits his ceiling.
$10-$14 33 Oneil Cruz OF 657.3 1.21 Still having trouble turing raw skills into a complete package. Strikeout issues a huge red flag. Ceiling is still high if he can figure out plate approach.
$10-$14 34 Ian Happ OF 783.9 1.21 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$10-$14 35 Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF 606.5 1.21 Eliminated platoon splits in 2025, though he struggled in San Diego after trade.
$10-$14 36 Alec Burleson 1B/OF 665.0 1.20 Small improvements in plate discipline and contact quality led to big improvements in results.
$10-$14 37 Trent Grisham OF 624.5 1.20 Resurrected his career in New York, set career high in HR in 2025. Real change in plate approach from patient to selectively aggressive.
$10-$14 38 Andy Pages OF 671.7 1.19 Crushed the ball at home but couldn’t produce away from Dodger Stadium.
$10-$14 39 Randy Arozarena OF 780.6 1.18 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Contact quality improved in ’25.
$10-$14 40 Brandon Nimmo OF 749.4 1.18 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Will plate discipline rebound?
$10-$14 41 Bryan Reynolds OF 733.5 1.14 Strikeouts up even though chase rate fell. Contact quality stayed steady. Could bounce back if he can get the K’s back in line.
$6-$9 42 Mickey Moniak OF 540.5 1.25 Made real strides forward in Colorado. Strikeouts down, contact quality up, home park is a nice bonus.
$6-$9 43 Ramón Laureano OF 566.9 1.23 Resurrected his career in Baltimore, continued pounding the ball in San Diego. Biggest difference was 4 point improvement in contact rate.
$6-$9 44 Brandon Marsh OF 541.4 1.21 Much more aggressive at the plate in 2025 led to improved contact rate, lower walk rate.
$6-$9 45 Lawrence Butler OF 644.9 1.16 2024 showed us his ceiling if everything goes right. 2025 showed us his floor if his plate discipline continues to slide.
$6-$9 46 Daylen Lile OF 552.5 1.16 Huge finish to the season looks like it was BABIP fueled (.380 BABIP in 2H). Excellent contact skills, little power, no walks — reminds me of Steven Kwan.
$6-$9 47 Heliot Ramos OF 705.6 1.14 Barrel rate way down but contact rate way up. Feels like he tried to trade power for contact but the result was a big step backwards.
$6-$9 48 Michael Harris II OF 644.2 1.14 2H surge salvaged his season (47 wRC+ in 1H, 130 in 2H). Projections still really like him, but I’m weary after ’24 and 1H ’25.
$6-$9 49 Jac Caglianone 1B/OF 500.0 1.14 Rough debut in 2025 but the massive power is enticing. Should get a chance to prove he can stick in the big leagues with a full-time role in ’26.
$6-$9 50 Spencer Steer 1B/OF 663.6 1.13 Slowly worked his way back from shoulder injury (113 wRC+ in Aug/Sept). Still feels like 2023 was his high water mark.
$6-$9 51 Steven Kwan OF 710.1 1.11 Even if his BABIP rebounds, it seems like his 2024 power spike was a one-year blip.
$6-$9 52 Luis Robert Jr. OF 533.4 1.11 Improved his plate discipline significantly in 2025. Power still hasn’t returned and healthy will always be a question.
$6-$9 53 TJ Friedl OF 644.4 1.11 Solid plate approach gives him a nice floor. Tries to make the most of his pulled contact with weak contact quality.
$6-$9 54 Daulton Varsho OF 530.5 1.11 Big power spike after returning from shoulder injury. Too many strikeouts put a cap on his ceiling.
$3-$5 55 Giancarlo Stanton OF 499.0 1.28 Can still crush the ball when healthy. Enjoyed his best offensive season in 2025 since ’17, but only played in 77 games.
$3-$5 56 Tyler O’Neill OF 449.5 1.26 Is he healthy? Can he still hit for power in Camden Yards? Contact quality fell in ’25 but plate discipline bounced back.
$3-$5 57 Masataka Yoshida OF 394.1 1.17 Does he have a regular spot in Boston’s lineup? Injuries derailed his 2025 season but underlying metrics looked normal-ish.
$3-$5 58 Dylan Beavers OF 473.0 1.16 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Baltimore. Extremely patient with decent power.
$3-$5 59 Jorge Soler OF 536.1 1.16 Bat speed and power output fell significantly in 2025. Doesn’t have the plate approach to rebound if power is gone.
$3-$5 60 Colton Cowser OF 541.3 1.15 Strikeout rate jumped through the roof in 2025. Untenable at 35%, could make it work at 30%, but the margin is razor thin.
$3-$5 61 Isaac Collins OF 469.9 1.14 Excellent contact skills, little power, can take walks. I actually like his move to KC with it’s huge BABIP boosting park effects.
$3-$5 62 Jasson Domínguez OF 417.8 1.14 Might have path to full-time at-bats without Bellinger in the picture. Projections see a step forward for him in 2026, and he’s still only 23 years old.
$3-$5 63 Austin Hays OF 494.2 1.14 Nearly a 4 point jump in barrel rate in 2025 was really nice to see, but too many strikeouts caps his ceiling.
$3-$5 64 Jesús Sánchez OF 531.3 1.13 Contact quality took a steep dive after being traded to Houston. If it rebounds, could have a much higher ceiling than this ranking assumes.
$3-$5 65 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 551.4 1.12 ACL injury means he’ll miss first few months of 2026 season.
$3-$5 66 Evan Carter OF 392.5 1.11 Injuries have stunted his development and lowered his ceiling. Made real plate discipline changes last year but still isn’t hitting the ball with authority.
$3-$5 67 Mike Yastrzemski OF 527.7 1.11 Dropped his strikeout rate below 20% in 2025 and still has pretty good contact quality metrics.
$3-$5 68 Trevor Larnach OF 520.5 1.11 Barrel rate dipped in 2025 but maintained plate discipline improvements from ’24. Might be just a platoon player.
$3-$5 69 Jakob Marsee OF 578.6 1.11 Exciting debut might have been BABIP fueled. Even if he doesn’t return to those heights, the skills are decent enough to return some value.
$3-$5 70 JJ Bleday OF 496.3 1.11 Big step backwards in 2025. Cincinnati should be a nice place to hit but he’s probably a platoon player in that lineup.
$3-$5 71 Josh Lowe OF 484.9 1.10 Got his strikeout rate under control in 2025 but contact quality cratered. Can he put it all together in ’26? Might be just a platoon player anyway.
$3-$5 72 Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 OF 603.6 1.10 Up-and-down season wound up being just average by the end. Projections see room for growth but I’m not sure from where.
$3-$5 73 Lars Nootbaar OF 573.1 1.10 Contact quality remained excellent but wasn’t pulling the ball as much in 2025. Solid floor thanks to good plate approach.
$3-$5 74 Jordan Beck OF 569.1 1.09 Had a solid first full season in the big leagues in 2025. Decent power but BABIP was a bit high and relied on Coors Field for a lot of his success (71 point wOBA home/away split).
$3-$5 75 Brenton Doyle OF 569.1 1.06 Really struggled in 2025 but underlying skills looked intact. Be prepared to sit him on the road.
$3-$5 76 Dylan Crews OF 475.0 1.04 Still waiting for him to acclimate to the big leagues. Ceiling might not be as high as his prospect reports thought.
$1-$2 77 Jahmai Jones OF 311.7 1.30 Contact quality and plate approach improved significantly in 2025 but still only a lefty masher on the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 78 Rob Refsnyder OF 293.3 1.19 Contact quality improved significantly in 2025 but still only a lefty masher on the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 79 Troy Johnston 1B/OF 385.2 1.16 Decent debut in Miami in 2025 and now gets to call Coors Field home.
$1-$2 80 Luke Raley 1B/OF 360.2 1.13 Injuries took a toll on him in 2025 and might be squeezed out of a roster spot in Seattle. Only a platoon hitter if he gets an opportunity somewhere.
$1-$2 81 Jake McCarthy OF 421.7 1.13 Speedster showed a little more pop in 2025 but his BABIP dropped by nearly 100 points. Now gets to call Coors Field home.
$1-$2 82 Dominic Canzone OF 406.5 1.13 Had the quietest 141 wRC+ season in 2025. Fantastic contact quality, decent plate approach, might not be able to hit lefties.
$1-$2 83 Garrett Mitchell OF 324.8 1.12 Injuries have prevented him from establishing himself in the big leagues. Still has plenty of tools but contact issues could be a problem.
$1-$2 84 Colby Thomas OF 388.8 1.11 Huge power, huge strikeouts. If he can figure out his contact rate, watch out.
$1-$2 85 CJ Kayfus 1B/OF 418.9 1.10 Decent power but contact issues could prevent him from hitting his ceiling.
$1-$2 86 Chase DeLauter OF 493.4 1.10 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Cleveland. Decent tools across the board without a standout skill.
$1-$2 87 Owen Caissie OF 470.4 1.09 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Miami. Power should play if he can get his strikeout rate under control.
$1-$2 88 Justin Crawford OF 472.0 1.09 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Philadelphia. Speedster like his dad and needs high BABIP to maintain production.
$1-$2 89 Sal Frelick OF 573.4 1.09 Improved his contact quality from poor to below average in 2025. Also improved contact rate and pull rate.
$1-$2 90 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF 287.2 1.08 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but could have an enticing power/patience profile if he’s healthy.
$1-$2 91 Heriberto Hernández OF 383.9 1.08 Decent debut in Miami in 2025. Got his strikeout rate sorted out in the big leagues but might only be the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 92 Harrison Bader OF 501.5 1.08 Contact quality improved in 2025 but strikeout rate shot up too. Won’t have as nice a home ballpark in San Francisco.
$1-$2 93 Adolis García OF 606.8 1.08 Contact quality still looks good and his contact rate improved by 4 points in 2025. Power has slowly dried up anyway.
$1-$2 94 Nathan Lukes OF 382.9 1.08 Solid contact hitter with a bit of power. Might be squeezed out of a platoon role in a crowded Toronto outfield.
$1-$2 95 Carson Benge OF 452.3 1.07 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in New York. Solid skills across the board, but doesn’t have an elite carrying tool
$1-$2 96 Nick Castellanos OF 575.2 1.07 Cast out of Philadelphia and landed in San Diego. He’s probably a part time player at this point, but still has some pop left in his bat.
$1-$2 97 Victor Robles OF 310.4 1.07 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025. He might have been pushed too quickly but had some spurts of success early in the year.
$1-$2 98 Andrew Benintendi OF 517.8 1.05 Started pulling the ball in the air a bunch and barrel rate improved by nearly 5 points in 2025.
$1-$2 99 Zac Veen OF 335.0 1.05
$1-$2 100 Cedric Mullins OF 489.5 1.05 Contact quality and plate discipline have been slowly eroding over the last few years. Breakout year in 2021 was a long time ago.
$1-$2 101 Gavin Sheets 1B/OF 519.2 1.03 Improved contact quality with full-time at-bats in San Diego but is probably on the strong side of a platoon now.
$1-$2 102 Parker Meadows OF 415.7 1.03 After promising season in 2024, injuries cost him most of ’25. Probably on the strong side of a platoon.
$1-$2 103 Walker Jenkins OF 291.1 0.99 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but good approach and contact rate give him a high floor.
$1-$2 104 Cam Smith OF 444.9 0.99 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025 but still only 23 years old. Needs to bring down strikeout rate but contact quality was pretty good.
$0-$1 105 Max Clark OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 106 Josue De Paula OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 107 Zyhir Hope OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 108 Lazaro Montes OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 109 Mike Sirota OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 110 Eduardo Quintero OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 111 Anthony Santander OF 635.0 1.18 Shoulder injury cost him nearly all of 2025. (Update: and now most of ’26 too.)
$0-$1 112 Justyn-Henry Malloy 1B/OF 344.7 1.11
$0-$1 113 Jake Bauers 1B/OF 319.6 1.10
$0-$1 114 Alex Call OF 320.7 1.10
$0-$1 115 Randal Grichuk OF 328.3 1.09
$0-$1 116 Will Benson OF 343.5 1.08
$0-$1 117 Jack Suwinski OF 346.7 1.08
$0-$1 118 Starling Marte OF 342.9 1.07
$0-$1 119 Lane Thomas OF 468.5 1.07
$0-$1 120 Mike Tauchman OF 391.9 1.06
$0-$1 121 James Outman OF 357.1 1.06
$0-$1 122 Jake Fraley OF 355.7 1.05
$0-$1 123 Matt Vierling OF 422.1 1.05
$0-$1 124 Carlos Cortes OF 270.4 1.05
$0-$1 125 Wenceel Pérez OF 454.4 1.04
$0-$1 126 Jerar Encarnacion OF 228.0 1.04
$0-$1 127 Zach Cole OF 382.5 1.04
$0-$1 128 Michael Conforto OF 436.5 1.02
$0-$1 129 Jake Mangum OF 399.7 1.02
$0-$1 130 Alan Roden OF 285.9 1.02
$0-$1 131 Austin Martin OF 285.6 1.01
$0-$1 132 Jake Meyers OF 431.5 1.01
$0-$1 133 George Valera OF 357.1 1.01
$0-$1 134 Denzel Clarke OF 320.4 1.01
$0-$1 135 Luis Matos OF 277.8 1.00
$0-$1 136 Chandler Simpson OF 447.7 1.00
$0-$1 137 Tommy Pham OF 412.2 0.99
$0-$1 138 Christopher Morel OF 414.7 0.99
$0-$1 139 Ryan Waldschmidt OF 423.9 0.97
$0-$1 140 Jordan Walker OF 432.7 0.96
$0-$1 141 Jhostynxon Garcia OF 381.8 0.94
$0 142 Jurickson Profar OF 672.3 1.21 Carried skills over from 2024 breakout after returning from his PED suspension.
$0 143 Max Kepler OF 423.5 1.06
$0 144 Andrew McCutchen OF 483.5 1.03
$0 145 Zach Dezenzo OF 179.2 1.03
$0 146 Joey Loperfido OF 332.8 1.03
$0 147 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF 336.9 1.02
$0 148 Tyler Black 1B/OF 381.6 1.01
$0 149 Mark Canha OF 321.6 1.00
$0 150 Sam Haggerty OF 229.9 1.00
$0 151 Griffin Conine OF 328.0 1.00
$0 152 Eli White OF 244.3 0.99
$0 153 Chas McCormick OF 245.6 0.99
$0 154 Eric Wagaman 1B/OF 415.3 0.98
$0 155 Heston Kjerstad OF 254.9 0.98
$0 156 Nolan Jones OF 344.6 0.97
$0 157 Jarred Kelenic OF 341.8 0.96
$0 158 MJ Melendez OF 392.8 0.96
$0 159 Will Brennan OF 352.5 0.96
$0 160 Connor Joe OF 338.2 0.95
$0 161 John Rave OF 292.3 0.95
$0 162 Hunter Renfroe OF 350.5 0.94
$0 163 Jonny DeLuca OF 270.6 0.94
$0 164 Drew Gilbert OF 299.5 0.94
$0 165 Jhonkensy Noel 1B/OF 296.9 0.94
$0 166 Dane Myers OF 271.6 0.93
$0 167 Kevin Alcántara OF 375.8 0.93
$0 168 Tirso Ornelas OF 324.5 0.93
$0 169 Alex Verdugo OF 390.3 0.93
$0 170 Alejandro Osuna OF 259.8 0.93
$0 171 Alek Thomas OF 377.9 0.92
$0 172 Blake Perkins OF 267.7 0.92
$0 173 Kameron Misner OF 285.7 0.92
$0 174 Tyrone Taylor OF 279.4 0.90
$0 175 Jose Siri OF 342.9 0.90
$0 176 Kyle Isbel OF 368.7 0.90
$0 177 Bryce Johnson OF 194.1 0.89
$0 178 Drew Waters OF 302.5 0.89
$0 179 Marco Luciano OF 364.2 0.88
$0 180 Myles Straw OF 277.0 0.87
$0 181 Victor Scott II OF 398.7 0.87
$0 182 Johan Rojas OF 250.1 0.86
$0 183 Dylan Carlson OF 230.4 0.85
$0 184 Jacob Young OF 340.1 0.84
$0 185 Robert Hassell III OF 279.1 0.83

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Middle Infield

by
February 19, 2026
Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

 

Chad started off the Ottoneu rankings push with his 4×4 middle infield rankings yesterday and I’m following up with my rankings for Ottoneu points leagues. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/19/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 11 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 16 players based on 2026 draft results.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 50-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points MI Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$45-$54 1 Bobby Witt Jr. SS 1040.4 1.55 Clearly the best MI in baseball with just six hitters projected to outproduce him.
$36-$44 2 Ketel Marte 2B 857.8 1.47 The best 2B in baseball, trade rumors shouldn’t affect production.
$36-$44 3 Corey Seager SS 732.4 1.45 Productive when on the field but injury concerns will always be a factor.
$36-$44 4 Gunnar Henderson SS 941.6 1.43 Took a step back in 2025 but the ceiling is still very high.
$28-$35 5 Francisco Lindor SS 920.6 1.35 Consistent production means he’s a little overlooked in favor of flashier MI, but he’s been very good for four years straight.
$28-$35 6 Elly De La Cruz SS 885.2 1.34 Quad injury clearly held him back in 2025, but the ceiling is sky high. Considered ranking him a tier higher, but needs to prove it first.
$28-$35 7 Mookie Betts SS 800.3 1.31 Lost positional flexibility and spring illness negatively affected his entire 2025. Should bounce back in 2026, but how high?
$21-$27 8 Trea Turner SS 798.6 1.30 The power is probably on the downswing, but contact ability is still excellent. Steals are a bonus in FGpts.
$21-$27 9 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B/3B 721.2 1.29 Huge power explosion in first full season in New York raises his ceiling significantly.
$21-$27 10 Geraldo Perdomo SS 784.6 1.29 Big breakout in 2025 and all the underlying metrics look sustainable. Still worried about some power regression.
$21-$27 11 Zach Neto SS 747.8 1.27 The ceiling is a 30/30 season. Batted ball metrics all point to significant breakout potential.
$21-$27 12 Bo Bichette SS 746.4 1.27 Posted his best offensive season in 2025 after a down year in ’24. Any potential landing spot shouldn’t affect his production too much.
$15-$20 13 Jose Altuve 2B/OF 745.4 1.21 Approaching the age cliff at 36 years old. Still possesses solid skills, but how long will they last?
$15-$20 14 Jeremy Peña SS 714.8 1.19 Came back down to earth after rib injury (143 wRC+ in 1H, 120 in 2H), but 2025 represented a big step forward for him.
$10-$14 15 Jacob Wilson SS 623.8 1.22 Idealized version of Luis Arraez with a touch more power. Still pretty BABIP dependent which leads to low lows.
$10-$14 16 Brandon Lowe 2B 615.9 1.21 Move to Pittsburgh shouldn’t hurt too much. 2025 was his first (mostly) healthy season since 2021.
$10-$14 17 Luke Keaschall 2B 512.7 1.20 Looked like a big leaguer in his cup of coffee in 2025. Batted ball peripherals are a bit concerning, but the contact skill is real.
$10-$14 18 Jorge Polanco 2B/3B 586.7 1.20 Swing change allowed him to thrive despite battling nagging injuries. Probably won’t be MI eligible next year.
$10-$14 19 CJ Abrams SS 730.9 1.19 Has developed into a good player, though the promise of a power breakout is probably fleeting unless he makes some serious contact quality gains.
$10-$14 20 Willy Adames SS 774.9 1.17 The power is real but playing in SF hurt his overall offensive production.
$10-$14 21 Brendan Donovan 2B/SS/OF 645.7 1.17 Solid player across the board with no weaknesses. Multi-positional eligibility helps his value.
$10-$14 22 Carlos Correa SS/3B 608.6 1.15 Has a history of quality production but health will determine if he can reach his previous highs.
$10-$14 23 Gleyber Torres 2B 734.2 1.15 Played through injury during the second half but still put up a solid season in Detroit.
$10-$14 24 Maikel Garcia 2B/SS/3B/OF 719.3 1.14 Huge breakout in 2025 doesn’t look like a mirage. Positional flexibility a big bonus.
$10-$14 25 Brice Turang 2B 706.7 1.14 Another big breakout from 2025 that looks like it’s going to stick. Might have the highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$6-$9 26 Jordan Westburg 2B/3B 593.6 1.23 Solid player across the board with no weaknesses, but no standout skills either. Needs to stay healthy.
$6-$9 27 Kevin McGonigle SS 360.2 1.19 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026.
$6-$9 28 Colt Keith 1B/2B/3B 559.7 1.13 Quietly put together a great season in his second year in the big leagues. Projections really like him in 2026.
$6-$9 29 Trevor Story SS 643.4 1.13 First healthy year since 2021 led to significant improvements in contact quality. Poor plate discipline holds him back.
$6-$9 30 Konnor Griffin SS 550.0 1.12 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026.
$6-$9 31 Ezequiel Tovar SS 649.4 1.12 Extremely streaky hitter who had a big step backwards in 2025. Uncertain future, but Coors effect should be a benefit.
$6-$9 32 Nico Hoerner 2B 704.6 1.11 All hit, no power profile works when he’s making contact 90% of the time.
$6-$9 33 Xander Bogaerts SS 600.9 1.11 Probably won’t reach his previous highs, but still a useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$3-$5 34 Luis García Jr. 2B 576.8 1.13 Still only 26, he’s improved signifcantly over the last few years. Added a bit of power in 2024, needs to put it all together to really take step forward.
$3-$5 35 Brett Baty 2B/3B 461.9 1.12 Excellent 2H (135 wRC+) gives him something to build off of. Excellent contact quality but needs to elevate more often. Could have a path to playing time at DH in a crowded infield in New York.
$3-$5 36 Jeff McNeil 2B/OF 557.5 1.10 New ballpark in Sacramento should help, but health uncertain after offseason thoracic outlet surgery.
$3-$5 37 Bryson Stott 2B/SS 623.8 1.10 Swing change helped him improve contact quality in 2H. Breakout candidate if the swing change sticks.
$3-$5 38 Luis Arraez 1B/2B 696.9 1.10 Contact rate king, but too much weak contact to make the most of all those balls in play.
$3-$5 39 Colson Montgomery SS/3B 533.1 1.09 A lot of home runs make up for a really poor approach at the plate.
$3-$5 40 Dansby Swanson SS 663.9 1.08 Still has some pop but poor plate approach caps his ceiling as an average MI.
$3-$5 41 Zach McKinstry SS/3B/OF 472.7 1.08 Came back down to earth after All-Star break (132 wRC+ in 1H, 81 in 2H). He really leaned into his pull side to outperform xwOBA. Positional flexibility is an asset.
$3-$5 42 JJ Wetherholt 2B/SS 448.4 1.08 Probably closer to the big leagues than the other two top prospects in this tier but lower ceiling than Griffin and McGonigle.
$3-$5 43 Xavier Edwards 2B/SS 594.3 1.07 BABIP fell by 68 points and walk rate dropped by 3 points in 2025. High-contact approach will always be dependent on batted ball luck.
$3-$5 44 Caleb Durbin 2B/3B 553.9 1.07 High-contact, pull-oriented approach should play well in Boston.
$3-$5 45 Ozzie Albies 2B 636.6 1.07 He’s fallen pretty far from his peak but still only 29 years old. The power has completely evaporated and it doesn’t look like it’s coming back.
$3-$5 46 Ceddanne Rafaela 2B/OF 602.8 1.07 Managed to cut strikeout rate by 6.5 points in 2025, but underlying plate discipline metrics aren’t pretty. Chases and whiffs too much to support a K% below 20%.
$3-$5 47 Jackson Holliday 2B/SS 613.2 1.06 Slower development than expected from a former top prospect. Ceiling is still high and only 22 years old.
$3-$5 48 Willi Castro 2B/3B/OF 547.3 1.06 Absolutely tanked after joining Chicago last summer but he was a useful utility guy in Minnesota for three years. New home in Colorado should help.
$3-$5 49 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS 594.0 1.05 Put together his best season in 2025 since breakout in 2021.
$3-$5 50 Marcus Semien 2B 657.1 1.04 Another veteran who has fallen far from his peak. Solid 2H gives some hope he’s still got something in the tank.
$1-$2 51 Romy Gonzalez 1B/2B 396.9 1.21 Significant improvement in contact quality in 2025, but still might only be the short side of a 2B platoon.
$1-$2 52 Kody Clemens 1B/2B/OF 332.3 1.07 Earned consistent playing time after joining Minnesota in late April and contact quality significantly improved. Doesn’t have a path to full-time at-bats right now, but should be first man off the bench.
$1-$2 53 Tyler Freeman 2B/OF 397.8 1.06 Claimed full-time at-bats by June but limped through the end of the season (66 wRC+ in 2H)
$1-$2 54 Marcelo Mayer 2B/SS/3B 424.9 1.06 Has had trouble staying healthy (wrist surgery derailed his rookie season) and might not start against LHP. Has the pedigree and skill set to be successful, but needs to put it all together first.
$1-$2 55 Jonathan India 2B/3B/OF 587.9 1.05 Suffered through his worst season of his career in 2025. Too much elevated contact without enough quality to do real damage.
$1-$2 56 Josh Smith 1B/SS/3B/OF 541.8 1.05 Plate discipline improved in 2025 but contact quality slid backwards. Decent bat with flexible positiion eligibilty.
$1-$2 57 Matt McLain 2B 568.5 1.04 His breakout in 2023 seems like eons ago. Was the shoulder injury still affecting him or did we see the real McLain in ’25?
$1-$2 58 Jett Williams 2B/SS/OF 481.3 1.04 Trade to Milwaukee opens up a path to a major league debut in 2026. Power/speed combo is enticing, but questions about his hit tool remain.
$1-$2 59 J.P. Crawford SS 600.3 1.02 Excellent plate discipline gives him a solid floor but power dried up in 2025.
$1-$2 60 Masyn Winn SS 600.0 1.02 Played through knee injury in 2025 which could explain the dip in power output. Elite defense will keep him on the field, helping him accumulate points.
$1-$2 61 Kristian Campbell 1B/2B/OF 374.7 1.02 Disaster of a rookie campaign and now it doesn’t look like he has a path to a full-time role in the majors. Needs to bounce back in Triple-A first and force his way into the lineup.
$1-$2 62 Jordan Lawlar 2B/SS/3B 279.8 1.01 Arizona continues to find excuses to bury Lawlar on the depth chart. Now he’s learning center field this spring but still might be sharing time anyway.
$1-$2 63 Otto Lopez 2B/SS 548.4 1.01
$1-$2 64 Jose Caballero 2B/SS/3B/OF 376.0 1.01
$1-$2 65 Ernie Clement 1B/2B/SS/3B 536.2 1.00
$1-$2 66 Max Muncy (ATH) 2B/SS/3B 329.5 0.96
$1-$2 67 Leo De Vries SS 427.4 0.93 Top prospect who might be a year or two away from making his debut. Very high ceiling, but still very young.
$1-$2 68 Cole Young 2B/SS 358.4 0.92
$1-$2 69 Colt Emerson SS 381.5 0.88 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Solid skills across the board, but doesn’t have the elite carrying tool like other top prospects ranked above.
$1-$2 70 Jesús Made SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 71 Sebastian Walcott SS 376.2 0.81
$0-$1 72 Luis Peña 2B/SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 73 Ethan Holliday Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 74 George Lombard Jr. SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 75 Eli Willits Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 76 Travis Bazzana 2B 306.8 0.95
$0-$1 77 Franklin Arias SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 78 Aidan Miller SS 450.3 0.98
$0-$1 79 Bryce Rainer SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 80 Aiva Arquette SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 81 Angel Genao SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 82 JoJo Parker Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 83 Arjun Nimmala SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 84 Kaelen Culpepper SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 85 Edmundo Sosa 2B/SS/3B 276.9 1.11
$0-$1 86 Alex Freeland 2B/SS/3B 475.6 1.09
$0-$1 87 Davis Schneider 2B/OF 376.6 1.08
$0-$1 88 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 2B/SS 419.5 1.07
$0-$1 89 Tyler Fitzgerald 2B 336.0 1.05
$0-$1 90 Gavin Lux 2B/3B/OF 487.8 1.05 Patient enough to have a solid floor but not enough power to have a high ceiling. Decent bat with flexible positiion eligibilty.
$0-$1 91 Brooks Baldwin 2B/SS/3B/OF 374.2 1.05
$0-$1 92 Adael Amador 2B 393.2 1.04
$0-$1 93 David Hamilton 2B/SS 270.3 1.03
$0-$1 94 Nolan Gorman 2B/3B 456.2 1.02
$0-$1 95 Weston Wilson 2B/OF 255.1 1.02
$0-$1 96 Jeremiah Jackson SS/3B/OF 341.9 1.02
$0-$1 97 Edouard Julien 1B/2B 336.6 1.01
$0-$1 98 Lenyn Sosa 1B/2B 453.0 1.00
$0-$1 99 Casey Schmitt 1B/2B/3B 357.4 1.00
$0-$1 100 Nick Gonzales 2B/SS 412.1 0.99
$0-$1 101 Vaughn Grissom 2B/SS 328.3 0.99
$0-$1 102 Ronny Mauricio 2B/3B 288.6 0.99
$0-$1 103 Tommy Edman 2B/3B/OF 417.3 0.99
$0-$1 104 Carson Williams SS 404.4 0.98
$0-$1 105 Andrés Giménez 2B/SS 517.4 0.98
$0-$1 106 Chase Meidroth 2B/SS 505.6 0.98
$0-$1 107 Anthony Volpe SS 557.7 0.97
$0-$1 108 Christian Moore 2B 385.6 0.97
$0-$1 109 Jared Triolo 1B/2B/SS/3B 439.4 0.97
$0-$1 110 Sung-Mun Song 송성문 2B/3B 450.8 0.95
$0 111 Jace Jung 2B/3B 399.2 1.04
$0 112 Dylan Moore 1B/2B/3B/OF 319.5 1.03
$0 113 Ramón Urías 2B/3B 336.5 1.02
$0 114 Miguel Rojas 2B/SS/3B 297.2 1.01
$0 115 José Fermín 2B 207.5 1.01
$0 116 Zack Gelof 2B 386.2 1.00
$0 117 Amed Rosario 2B/3B 313.1 0.98
$0 118 Blaze Alexander 2B/3B 350.7 0.97
$0 119 Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 2B/SS/OF 224.9 0.97
$0 120 José Tena 2B/3B 299.4 0.97
$0 121 Brendan Rodgers 2B 329.2 0.96
$0 122 Andy Ibáñez 2B/3B 243.7 0.96
$0 123 Brooks Lee 2B/SS/3B 472.1 0.95
$0 124 Joey Ortiz SS 480.1 0.94
$0 125 Leo Jiménez 2B 230.9 0.94
$0 126 Thairo Estrada 2B 323.8 0.94
$0 127 Michael Massey 2B/OF 319.2 0.93
$0 128 Luis Rengifo 2B/3B/OF 415.9 0.93
$0 129 Luis Urías 2B/3B 265.6 0.93
$0 130 Leo Rivas 2B/SS 226.1 0.93
$0 131 Jon Berti 2B/3B 211.5 0.93
$0 132 Paul DeJong 2B/SS/3B 306.2 0.92
$0 133 Thomas Saggese 2B/SS/3B 353.3 0.92
$0 134 Christian Koss 2B/3B 208.8 0.92
$0 135 Nick Yorke 2B/OF 324.9 0.91
$0 136 Jorge Mateo 2B/SS/OF 188.6 0.91
$0 137 Nick Loftin 2B/3B/OF 233.1 0.91
$0 138 Darell Hernaiz 2B/SS/3B 314.5 0.91
$0 139 Mauricio Dubón 2B/SS/3B/OF 345.1 0.90
$0 140 Gabriel Arias 2B/SS 370.0 0.90
$0 141 Ezequiel Duran 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF 270.8 0.90
$0 142 Brayan Rocchio 2B/SS 412.2 0.90
$0 143 Curtis Mead 1B/2B/3B 258.6 0.90
$0 144 Kyle Farmer 1B/2B/SS/3B 239.3 0.89
$0 145 Daniel Schneemann 2B/SS/3B/OF 306.1 0.89
$0 146 Chris Taylor 2B/OF 216.6 0.88
$0 147 Max Schuemann 2B/SS/3B/OF 279.7 0.88
$0 148 Michael Helman SS/OF 215.6 0.87
$0 149 Jose Iglesias 2B/SS/3B 254.5 0.87
$0 150 Luisangel Acuña 2B 344.0 0.87
$0 151 Nasim Nuñez 2B/SS 267.9 0.86
$0 152 Tim Tawa 1B/2B/OF 260.2 0.86
$0 153 Enrique Hernández 1B/2B/3B/OF/RP 281.9 0.86
$0 154 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B/SS/3B 355.8 0.86
$0 155 Adam Frazier 2B/OF 330.1 0.86
$0 156 Javier Báez 2B/SS/3B/OF 329.0 0.86
$0 157 Angel Martínez 2B/OF 347.5 0.86
$0 158 Taylor Walls SS 255.4 0.82
$0 159 Ildemaro Vargas 1B/2B/3B 197.1 0.82
$0 160 Orlando Arcia 1B/2B/SS/3B 324.8 0.81
$0 161 Josh Rojas 2B/3B 274.4 0.81
$0 162 Trey Sweeney SS 266.9 0.81
$0 163 Santiago Espinal 2B/3B/OF 238.3 0.78
$0 164 Oswald Peraza 1B/2B/SS/3B 200.6 0.71

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Third Base

by
February 18, 2026
Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push continues this week with a look at the hot corner. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/18/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for five players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for three players based on 2026 draft results.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 15-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points 3B Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$36-$44 1 José Ramírez 3B 954.8 1.46 133 wRC+ in 2025 was a “down” year for him. Contact quality slipped a bit too.
$28-$35 2 Junior Caminero 3B 848.1 1.42 Blasted 45 home runs in his first full year in the big leagues. Move back to Tropicana Field won’t help but has enough power that it won’t matter much.
$21-$27 3 Max Muncy (LAD) 3B 528.6 1.31 Muncy’s wRC+ after he started wearing glasses on April 30: 166. Contact quality improved and strikeout rate dropped by 5 points.
$21-$27 4 Austin Riley 3B 713.2 1.28 Four straight years of declining production is a big concern. Contact quality looks fantastic but plate discipline deteriorated in 2025.
$21-$27 5 Manny Machado 3B 803.1 1.26 A useful accumulator with good skills across the board. Always plays — two seasons in his entire career w/ less than 150 games played.
$15-$20 6 Munetaka Murakami 3B 710.7 1.29 The power is definitely real but there’s huge risk in his contact rate. The projections look decent, but the adjustment period could hurt.
$15-$20 7 Matt Chapman 3B 719.7 1.21 Pretty reliable contributor across the board. No weaknesses, but no standout skills either.
$15-$20 8 Alex Bregman 3B 726.6 1.20 New home in Wrigley Field shouldn’t hurt his pull-heavy approach too much and he had his best contact quality of his career in 2025.
$10-$14 9 Kazuma Okamoto 1B/3B 636.2 1.22 Much more stable profile than Murakami without the high ceiling. Will probably end up getting 3B eligibility.
$10-$14 10 Isaac Paredes 3B 612.8 1.22 Hamstring injury derailed a very good first year in Houston. Some concerns about playing time in a crowded lineup.
$10-$14 11 Eugenio Suárez 3B 750.7 1.20 Couldn’t keep his offensive resurgence going after re-joining Seattle. Ceiling might come down to where he signs.
$10-$14 12 Sal Stewart 1B/3B 570.8 1.19 Solid debut late last year with impressive contact quality. Needs to earn a spot in a crowded lineup.
$6-$9 13 Alec Bohm 1B/3B 645.6 1.16 Career-high contact rate in 2025, but still pounds the ball into the ground too often.
$6-$9 14 Addison Barger 3B/OF 531.6 1.15 1H breakout (125 wRC+) slowed way down in 2H (87) and then starred in the postseason (188). Great contact quality, needs to hone plate approach.
$3-$5 15 Mark Vientos 3B 526.3 1.16 Couldn’t repeat his breakout from 2024, rebounded a bit in 2H ’25. Contact quality looks good and strikeout rate dropped 5 points.
$3-$5 16 Yoán Moncada 3B 393.3 1.13 Big contact quality improvements in 2025 came at the cost of a slightly lower contact rate. The big question is if he can stay healthy.
$3-$5 17 Royce Lewis 3B 490.2 1.12 Is he healthy? If he is, is he the guy who posted a 152 wRC+ in 2023 or an 85 wRC+ in ’25?
$3-$5 18 Noelvi Marte 3B/OF 475.3 1.09 Looked pretty good after returning from PED suspension in July. Plate approach leaves a lot to be desired.
$3-$5 19 Miguel Vargas 1B/3B 558.6 1.07 Earned a shot at full-time at-bats and delivered a solid season with a good plate approach and decent contact quality.
$1-$2 20 Miguel Andujar 3B/OF 399.6 1.13 What a weird career arc. Huge 2H in 2025 was likely BABIP fueled (.413 BABIP w/ Cincinnati) but that comes with his aggressive, contact-oriented approach.
$1-$2 21 Matt Shaw 3B 438.1 1.08 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025 and now it doesn’t look like he has a spot in the starting lineup with Bregman in town.
$1-$2 22 Otto Kemp 1B/3B/OF 365.8 1.08 Really solid contact quality, really poor plate approach. Also on the short side of a platoon in Philadelphia.
$1-$2 23 Connor Norby 3B 439.4 1.03 Injuries took a toll on him in 2025, but had a really intriguing debut back in ’24. Contact rate needs to improve to maintain any sort of success.
$1-$2 24 Nolan Arenado 3B 538.6 1.01 Offense cratered in 2025. Too much elevated contact without enough quality to do real damage. Maybe we’ll see a dead cat bounce now that he’s been traded to Arizona.
$1-$2 25 Josh Jung 3B 485.0 1.01 Injuries have derailed what had been a promising start to his career. Contact quality improved in 2025 and the contact rate jumped nearly 6 points, but still too aggressive with his approach.
$1-$2 26 Ryan McMahon 3B 560.0 1.01 Contact quality has been excellent but it’s really hard to survive with a strikeout rate over 30%. Probably on the strong side of a platoon in New York.
$0-$1 27 Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B 272.4 1.03
$0-$1 28 Nate Eaton 3B/OF 297.6 1.02
$0 29 Justin Turner 1B/3B 405.4 1.06
$0 30 Kyle Karros 3B 315.5 0.98
$0 31 Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B 351.6 0.95
$0 32 Will Wagner 1B/3B 221.0 0.94
$0 33 Jose Miranda 3B 346.7 0.94
$0 34 Abraham Toro 1B/3B 325.5 0.92
$0 35 Oswaldo Cabrera 3B 220.4 0.89
$0 36 Brady House 3B 393.8 0.88
$0 37 Gio Urshela 3B 258.1 0.88
$0 38 Deyvison De Los Santos 1B/3B 336.0 0.87
$0 39 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B 443.1 0.85
$0 40 Nacho Alvarez Jr. 3B 258.4 0.84
$0 41 Ben Williamson 3B 314.0 0.83

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: First Base

by
February 17, 2026
Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push continues with a look at the final position player group: first basemen. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/17/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for seven players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 11 players based on 2026 draft results.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 30-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. I’m also including Util-only players in this list since there’s no good home for them elsewhere. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points 1B Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Shohei Ohtani Util/SP 1306.1 1.89 This ranking only reflects what he does as a hitter. Tack on the $25-$30 in value he provides as a pitcher and a $100 salary for Ohtani isn’t out of the question.
$45-$54 2 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B 1019.7 1.53 Power output has waxed and waned throughout his career, but the contact quality has always stayed elite. Even in a down power season, he was the 5th most valuable 1B in 2025.
$36-$44 3 Nick Kurtz 1B 850.6 1.57 Absolutely smashed the ball during his ROY award-winning campaign. Projects as the top 1B, though there’s still some risk the league will adjust to him.
$28-$35 4 Bryce Harper 1B 875.6 1.46 Some plate discipline yellow flags — high chase rate, low zone rate — but still has excellent contact quality.
$28-$35 5 Freddie Freeman 1B 918.6 1.45 Might be showing some signs of aging; strikeout rate jumped 5 points thanks to big spike in chase and whiff rates.
$28-$35 6 Pete Alonso 1B 950.1 1.41 Posted his best contact quality numbers of his career in 2025 and move to Camden Yards shouldn’t hurt too much.
$28-$35 7 Rafael Devers 1B 917.6 1.38 Struggled a bit once he joined San Francisco — strikeout rate jumped 7 points — but his contact quality remains elite.
$28-$35 8 Matt Olson 1B 940.1 1.37 Nice bounce back in 2025 after a down season in ’24. Plays every single day.
$15-$20 9 Michael Busch 1B 758.1 1.34 Followed up breakout 2024 with an even better season in ’25. Contact quality improved dramatically, though platoon split still remains wide.
$15-$20 10 Yandy Díaz 1B 824.0 1.33 Really took advantage of Steinbrenner Field in 2025 (.389 wOBA at home); return to Tropicana Field could hurt a bit. Fantastic plate approach gives him a high floor.
$15-$20 11 Josh Naylor 1B 762.2 1.29 Doesn’t have the contact quality heights of others in this tier, but solid approach at the plate gives him a high floor.
$15-$20 12 Jonathan Aranda 1B 589.4 1.27 Big breakout in 2025, though the .409 BABIP will certainly come down.
$15-$20 13 Willson Contreras 1B 645.1 1.26 Dip in walk rate a little concerning but the contact quality remained excellent. The move to Fenway Park definitely helps.
$15-$20 14 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 767.1 1.26 Similar to Naylor with a touch more power — improved barrel rate by 3.7 points in 2025.
$6-$9 15 Marcell Ozuna Util 765.6 1.34 Contact quality dipped significantly in 2025, offset a little by 5 point increase in walk rate.
$6-$9 16 Spencer Torkelson 1B 727.5 1.20 Finally broke out by cutting groundball rate to second lowest in the majors. Improved plate discipline too.
$6-$9 17 Kyle Manzardo 1B 591.5 1.19 Up-and-down year in 2025 but took small steps forward. Increased walk rate and slightly improved contact quality. Platoon split “only” 50 points of wOBA.
$3-$5 18 Joc Pederson Util 459.6 1.21 Went through big swings in production in 2025 and injuries limited his playing time. DH-only plus big platoon split limits his value.
$3-$5 19 Spencer Horwitz 1B 543.2 1.21 Lost MI eligibility but still productive enough to be valuable at 1B. Good plate approach but poor batted ball quality holds him back.
$3-$5 20 Jake Burger 1B 572.8 1.14 Struggled in his first season in Texas, was demoted in May, and injured his wrist in September. Contact quality didn’t waver.
$3-$5 21 Christian Walker 1B 675.1 1.14 Plate discipline took a big step backward in his first year in Houston but contact quality remained solid.
$3-$5 22 Nolan Schanuel 1B 642.4 1.13 Great plate discipline gives him a high floor. Finally started elevating the ball in 2025 but contact quality still poor.
$3-$5 23 Bryce Eldridge 1B 453.8 1.02 Massive power ceiling could be held back by hit tool questions. Should have an opportunity as a full-time DH in 2026.
$1-$2 24 Triston Casas 1B 335.0 1.24 Coming off a major knee surgery and was really bad in 2025 before the injury. He’ll have to battle for at-bats with Contreras manning 1B.
$1-$2 25 Pavin Smith 1B 383.3 1.12 Strikeout rate blew past 30% in 2025 but walk rate and contact quality still good. Big platoon split limits value.
$1-$2 26 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 609.4 1.12 Started off strong but fell apart by June. Power evaporated and it feels like we’ve seen the last of him as a productive hitter.
$1-$2 27 Josh Bell 1B 604.5 1.12 Big contact quality gains in 2025 but wOBA fell well short of his xwOBA.
$1-$2 28 Coby Mayo 1B 422.6 1.11 Difficult path to playing time on a crowded Baltimore roster and plenty of questions about his hit tool.
$1-$2 29 Andrew Vaughn 1B 578.8 1.08 Turned his career around after trade to Milwaukee. Chase rate and whiff rate greatly improved during the second half of the season. Needs to prove it.
$0-$1 30 Rhys Hoskins 1B 472.1 1.11
$0-$1 31 Nathaniel Lowe 1B 597.8 1.09
$0-$1 32 Ryan Mountcastle 1B 418.2 1.08
$0-$1 33 Tyler Locklear 1B 382.5 1.07
$0-$1 34 David Fry Util 277.8 1.05
$0-$1 35 Charlie Condon 1B 310.2 0.99
$0-$1 36 Adrian Del Castillo Util 275.8 0.98
$0 37 Xavier Isaac Util #N/A #N/A
$0 38 Jesse Winker Util 406.4 1.13
$0 39 Andrés Chaparro 1B 322.2 1.06
$0 40 Michael Toglia 1B 414.0 1.01
$0 41 Carlos Santana 1B 460.3 0.99
$0 42 Wilmer Flores 1B 362.9 0.99
$0 43 Ty France 1B 467.4 0.99
$0 44 Richie Palacios Util 265.1 0.95
$0 45 Anthony Rendon Util 166.7 0.81

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Relief Pitchers

by
February 16, 2026
Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push finally wraps up with a look at relief pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/16/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Updated tier placement for one player (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 19 players based on 2026 draft results. Added Paul Sewald, Brooks Raley, Drew Pomeranz, Mason Montgomery, and Cole Henry.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Here are my general thoughts about relief pitchers in Ottoneu points and 4×4 leagues: underlying skills matter a lot more than a pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order. Chasing saves isn’t as important as it might be in 5×5 leagues where saves make up 20% of the pitching categories. Teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations which means if you target relievers with strong skills, saves and holds (and the bonus points associated with them in Ottoneu points leagues) will follow.

Relievers are also the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.

Ottoneu Points RP Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Projected Role Projected Pts Pts/IP
$21-$27 1 Mason Miller CL 614.8 9.66
$15-$20 2 Aroldis Chapman CL 547.5 9.22
$15-$20 3 Edwin Díaz CL 590.2 9.14
$15-$20 4 Cade Smith CL 643.9 9.04
$15-$20 5 Andrés Muñoz CL 563.3 8.96
$15-$20 6 Jhoan Duran CL 612.2 8.84
$10-$14 7 Devin Williams CL 536.5 8.66
$10-$14 8 Abner Uribe CL? 618.1 8.56
$10-$14 9 David Bednar CL 537.7 8.48
$6-$9 10 Josh Hader INJ 507.6 8.50
$6-$9 11 Ryan Walker CL 498.0 7.95
$6-$9 12 Daniel Palencia CL 481.4 7.91
$6-$9 13 Pete Fairbanks CL 468.0 7.83
$6-$9 14 Raisel Iglesias CL 501.6 7.77
$6-$9 15 Seranthony Domínguez CL 471.5 7.66
$6-$9 16 Emilio Pagán CL 493.8 7.58
$6-$9 17 Bryan Abreu CL 524.7 7.55
$6-$9 18 Ryan Helsley CL 449.4 7.47
$6-$9 19 Jeff Hoffman CL 477.3 7.41
$6-$9 20 Griffin Jax CL? 489.8 7.37
$6-$9 21 Garrett Whitlock SU8 516.4 7.28
$6-$9 22 Adrian Morejon SU8 504.0 7.25
$6-$9 23 Trevor Megill CL? 409.4 7.19
$3-$5 24 Riley O’Brien CL? 447.5 7.83
$3-$5 25 Dennis Santana CL 526.7 7.76
$3-$5 26 Robert Garcia CL 475.3 7.56
$3-$5 27 Clayton Beeter CL? 441.1 7.52
$3-$5 28 Gabe Speier MID 433.2 7.44
$3-$5 29 Carlos Estévez CL 458.1 7.19
$3-$5 30 Grant Taylor SU7 459.6 7.10
$3-$5 31 Matt Brash SU8 404.6 7.06
$3-$5 32 Garrett Cleavinger CL? 441.2 7.04
$3-$5 33 Jeremiah Estrada SU7 493.7 7.01
$3-$5 34 Phil Maton SU8 433.2 6.99
$3-$5 35 Robert Suarez SU8 454.7 6.92
$3-$5 36 Will Vest SU8 465.6 6.90
$3-$5 37 JoJo Romero CL? 401.2 6.50
$3-$5 38 Kenley Jansen CL 353.0 6.15
$1-$2 39 Kevin Ginkel CL? 375.4 7.31
$1-$2 40 Justin Topa MID 425.2 7.16
$1-$2 41 Fernando Cruz SU7 385.7 7.04
$1-$2 42 Taylor Rogers CL 385.8 7.03
$1-$2 43 Hogan Harris CL? 507.1 6.94
$1-$2 44 Hunter Harvey SU7 349.5 6.90
$1-$2 45 Victor Vodnik CL 403.9 6.89
$1-$2 46 Shawn Armstrong SU7 467.4 6.84
$1-$2 47 Jason Adam SU7 384.5 6.81
$1-$2 48 Brendon Little MID 416.1 6.79
$1-$2 49 Paul Sewald CL? 331.2 6.79
$1-$2 50 Alex Vesia SU7 409.2 6.76
$1-$2 51 Matt Svanson CL? 439.8 6.75
$1-$2 52 Camilo Doval SU8 435.6 6.75
$1-$2 53 Jose A. Ferrer SU7 487.7 6.74
$1-$2 54 Aaron Ashby MID 469.2 6.74
$1-$2 55 Brooks Raley 레일리 SU7 337.8 6.73
$1-$2 56 Matt Strahm SU7 423.3 6.70
$1-$2 57 José Alvarado SU8 352.8 6.64
$1-$2 58 Eduard Bazardo MID 471.1 6.59
$1-$2 59 Gregory Soto SU8 390.8 6.58
$1-$2 60 Louis Varland SU7 534.4 6.55
$1-$2 61 Jared Koenig SU7 438.5 6.54
$1-$2 62 Orion Kerkering MID 404.2 6.53
$1-$2 63 Erik Sabrowski MID 327.3 6.46
$1-$2 64 Brad Keller SU7 460.1 6.40
$1-$2 65 Lucas Erceg SU8 385.3 6.38
$1-$2 66 Chris Martin SU8 304.9 6.36
$1-$2 67 Kyle Finnegan SU7 377.0 6.33
$1-$2 68 Tanner Scott SU8 380.0 6.25
$1-$2 69 Luke Weaver SU8 414.9 6.22
$1-$2 70 Hunter Gaddis SU8 430.9 6.14
$0-$1 71 Randy Rodríguez INJ 375.1 7.44
$0-$1 72 Félix Bautista INJ 227.5 7.40
$0-$1 73 Robert Stephenson INJ 398.9 7.39
$0-$1 74 Ronny Henriquez INJ 519.5 7.05
$0-$1 75 Justin Martinez INJ 316.2 7.05
$0-$1 76 Evan Phillips INJ 266.8 6.66
$0-$1 77 Ben Joyce INJ 258.9 6.64
$0-$1 78 A.J. Minter INJ 360.0 6.61
$0-$1 79 Aaron Bummer MID 369.0 6.61
$0-$1 80 Edwin Uceta INJ 475.1 6.58
$0-$1 81 Yimi García INJ 321.9 6.52
$0-$1 82 Drew Pomeranz CL? 347.2 6.50
$0-$1 83 Andrew Kittredge INJ 384.9 6.46
$0-$1 84 Graham Ashcraft SU7 422.0 6.46
$0-$1 85 Joe Jimenez INJ 279.8 6.40
$0-$1 86 Anthony Bender MID 351.0 6.40
$0-$1 87 Caleb Ferguson INJ 383.2 6.37
$0-$1 88 Tyler Kinley MID 414.3 6.33
$0-$1 89 Brant Hurter MID 432.0 6.31
$0-$1 90 Cole Sands SU7 438.9 6.31
$0-$1 91 Bryan King SU8 412.6 6.26
$0-$1 92 Tyler Rogers SU8 454.2 6.18
$0-$1 93 Tony Santillan SU8 431.8 6.17
$0-$1 94 Kirby Yates CL? 295.9 6.00
$0-$1 95 Mason Montgomery MID 384.4 6.09
$0-$1 96 Justin Sterner CL? 381.7 5.98
$0 97 Justin Slaten SU7 312.7 6.13
$0 98 Huascar Brazobán MID 361.1 6.05
$0 99 Nick Mears MID 343.5 6.03
$0 100 José Buttó SU7 392.3 6.01
$0 101 Jordan Leasure SU8 376.8 5.98
$0 102 Mark Leiter Jr. CL? 336.4 5.96
$0 103 Juan Mejia SU7 381.9 5.95
$0 104 Kade Strowd SU7 311.2 5.94
$0 105 Ryan Thompson SU8 315.6 5.93
$0 106 Calvin Faucher SU8 359.7 5.92
$0 107 Brenan Hanifee MID 361.6 5.91
$0 108 Isaac Mattson SU7 345.5 5.91
$0 109 Jimmy Herget SU8 464.4 5.84
$0 110 Yennier Cano SU7 327.4 5.84
$0 111 Tyler Holton MID 439.6 5.81
$0 112 Cole Winn SU7 354.3 5.79
$0 113 Brock Burke MID 354.3 5.74
$0 114 Joel Peguero INJ 312.7 5.66
$0 115 Keegan Akin SU8 364.3 5.64
$0 116 Michael Kopech INJ 357.7 5.61
$0 117 Porter Hodge INJ 277.4 5.57
$0 118 Jordan Romano CL? 283.1 5.49
$0 119 Tommy Kahnle ?? 330.5 5.48
$0 120 Cole Henry CL? 301.5 5.24

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Catcher

by
February 13, 2026
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

With the two largest position groups out of the way, the Ottoneu rankings push takes a breather with the smallest position group to finish this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/13/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for eight players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
  • 3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for four players based on 2026 draft results.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 20-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points C Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$28-$35 1 Cal Raleigh C 919.6 1.43 Probably won’t hit 60 home runs again but is clearly the best catcher in baseball. Huge power supported by real plate discipline gains in 2025.
$15-$20 2 Will Smith C 636.4 1.32 2025 was his best offensive season since ’20 but it might have been BABIP driven. He did have career-high walk rate and contact quality looked a lot like it did back in ’20.
$15-$20 3 Ben Rice C/1B 644.7 1.31 Huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as 1B in New York, but will probably loose C eligibility in 2027.
$15-$20 4 Hunter Goodman C 678.6 1.31 This tier is full of breakout catchers! I like his foundation a little less than the other players in this tier — poor plate approach gives him a low floor.
$15-$20 5 Shea Langeliers C 678.0 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Cut strikeout rate by 7.5 points and absolutely mashed in 2H (176 wRC+).
$15-$20 6 Iván Herrera C 612.7 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as DH in St. Louis and could retain C eligibility for 2027.
$15-$20 7 William Contreras C 802.3 1.27 Played through a fractured finger in 2025 and his power output dropped. Should bounce back if healthy.
$10-$14 8 Drake Baldwin C 602.6 1.27 Very impressive debut in 2025 that earned him ROY honors. Good plate approach and solid contact quality give him a high floor.
$6-$9 9 Gabriel Moreno C 446.1 1.19 Has dealt with a number of injuries over the last few years, but has been productive when healthy.
$6-$9 10 Samuel Basallo C/1B 462.0 1.18 Struggled a bit in his brief call up in 2025 but is still just 21. Position is a question mark but should force his way into the lineup.
$6-$9 11 Alejandro Kirk C 543.4 1.18 High contact approach might be a little BABIP dependent, but improved contact quality significantly in 2025.
$6-$9 12 Francisco Alvarez C 451.3 1.18 Dramatically improved contact quality after returning from midseason demotion but hand injuries derailed his progress.
$6-$9 13 Salvador Perez C/1B 695.4 1.14 The home runs are nice, but that’s about it. He gets regular at-bats whether its at C, 1B, or DH.
$6-$9 14 Adley Rutschman C 613.7 1.13 He’s been below replacement level for a season and a half now but the promise of a huge bounce back is still present.
$6-$9 15 Yainer Diaz C 611.7 1.13 Two straight years of declining production. Aggressive approach means he’s BABIP dependent and power has slid backwards.
$6-$9 16 Carter Jensen C 472.0 1.10 Really impressive late season debut in 2025. Playing time in question, but should take over full-time catching duties soon.
$6-$9 17 Agustín Ramírez C 593.6 1.09 Another young catcher whose debut season in 2025 was a little rocky. Projections think he’ll take a step forward.
$3-$5 18 Ryan Jeffers C 525.3 1.14 Power disappeared in 2025 but plate discipline improved.
$3-$5 19 Tyler Stephenson C 475.1 1.11 Big improvement in contact quality but strikeout rate jumped over 30%.
$1-$2 20 Kyle Teel C 456.6 1.09 Solid debut season in 2025. Will likely fall back to earth a bit when his BABIP regresses, but solid skills to build on.
$1-$2 21 Austin Wells C 465.2 1.08 Should be a good source of power but plate discipline took a big step backwards in 2025.
$1-$2 22 J.T. Realmuto C 522.0 1.08 He’s back in Philadelphia but 2025 was his worst season since his rookie year in 2015. How much longer can he catch 100+ games?
$1-$2 23 Dillon Dingler C 443.8 1.08 Pretty significant breakout in his first full season in the big leagues. Good contact quality but might be a little too dependent on BABIP.
$1-$2 24 Dalton Rushing C 271.2 1.08 Playing time blocked behind Will Smith, but could force his way into at-bats in the outfield mix or as backup catcher.
$1-$2 25 Moisés Ballesteros C 451.7 1.07 Top prospect should get plenty of time as DH in 2026. Promising late season debut, but contact quality is a little lacking.
$1-$2 26 Victor Caratini C/1B 362.0 1.06 Should see plenty of playing time as DH and backup catcher. Decent underlying skills and improved strikeout rate by 2.5 points in 2025.
$0-$1 27 Josue Briceño C N/A N/A
$0-$1 28 Sean Murphy C 373.5 1.09
$0-$1 29 Gary Sánchez C 274.8 1.08
$0-$1 30 Carson Kelly C 387.1 1.07
$0-$1 31 Danny Jansen C 336.4 1.03
$0-$1 32 Joey Bart C 323.4 1.03
$0-$1 33 Luis Campusano C 351.6 1.02
$0-$1 34 Carlos Narváez C 417.8 1.01
$0-$1 35 Kyle Higashioka C 273.6 0.99
$0-$1 36 Edgar Quero C 415.2 0.98
$0-$1 37 Logan O’Hoppe C 434.4 0.98
$0-$1 38 Harry Ford C 363.1 0.97
$0-$1 39 Bo Naylor C 398.6 0.97
$0 40 Ethan Salas C N/A N/A
$0 41 Connor Wong C 324.4 0.99
$0 42 Liam Hicks C/1B 329.3 0.99
$0 43 Miguel Amaya C 254.1 0.96
$0 44 Endy Rodriguez C/1B 247.8 0.95
$0 45 Travis d’Arnaud C 238.1 0.93
$0 46 James McCann C 186.3 0.93
$0 47 Mitch Garver C 282.4 0.92
$0 48 Hunter Feduccia C 250.8 0.90
$0 49 Freddy Fermin C 335.3 0.89
$0 50 Jake Rogers C 217.4 0.88
$0 51 Keibert Ruiz C 328.5 0.86
$0 52 Elias Díaz C 263.2 0.86
$0 53 Pedro Pagés C 290.0 0.86
$0 54 Rafael Marchán C 118.7 0.85
$0 55 Reese McGuire C 153.5 0.85
$0 56 Jose Trevino C 214.6 0.82
$0 57 Patrick Bailey C 362.5 0.82
$0 58 Henry Davis C 225.5 0.81
$0 59 Jonah Heim C 326.7 0.81
$0 60 Jacob Stallings C 161.9 0.80
$0 61 Nick Fortes C 222.2 0.78
$0 62 Korey Lee C 231.0 0.75
$0 63 Ben Rortvedt C 158.8 0.70
$0 64 Christian Vázquez C 171.6 0.69

Ottoneu 2026 Keeper Deadline in Review

by
February 3, 2026
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Last Saturday night was the Ottoneu keeper deadline. If you’re like me, you might have spent too much time the last few months weighing which players deserve a spot on your 2026 roster. A handful of last minute offseason trades ahead of the deadline got things in order and then came the chopping block. For better or worse, everything is locked in until draft day arrives for your league.

Before looking ahead towards your draft this spring, let’s take a look at what happened at the keeper deadline. There isn’t much immediately actionable information here since rosters are locked until your league’s draft, but I found it interesting to dig into the players who were cut the most and how average salaries have changed over the course of the offseason.

Most Cut Players — All Ottoneu Leagues
Player Post-Arb Roster% Post Cut Roster% Roster% Delta Post-Arb Avg Salary Post-Cut Avg Salary Avg Salary Delta
Ronny Henriquez 91.7% 12.7% -79.1% $4.82 $3.98 -$0.84
Mookie Betts 89.0% 18.1% -70.9% $56.86 $48.40 -$8.46
Lars Nootbaar 87.2% 16.6% -70.6% $10.92 $10.11 -$0.81
Triston Casas 86.9% 17.5% -69.4% $9.05 $8.38 -$0.67
Shota Imanaga 91.1% 22.9% -68.2% $22.77 $21.58 -$1.19
Austin Hays 90.8% 22.9% -67.9% $4.50 $4.00 -$0.50
Tanner Scott 84.4% 16.6% -67.8% $8.46 $7.80 -$0.66
Ha-seong Kim 78.3% 11.7% -66.5% $5.12 $4.49 -$0.63
Marcell Ozuna 78.3% 12.0% -66.2% $11.61 $10.30 -$1.31
Christian Walker 89.0% 22.9% -66.1% $12.31 $10.22 -$2.09

There aren’t a lot of surprises on the list of most cut players. It’s mostly populated with guys who were either injured in 2025 or who struggled mightily last season. When looking ahead towards this season, the uncertainty surrounding all of these players made them all easy cuts at the deadline.

A spring illness caused Mookie Betts to lose nearly 20 pounds in two weeks and forced him to miss the Dodgers’ two-game series in Japan to start the season. His conditioning never really caught up once the season got underway and he struggled for nearly the entire season. He did finish on a high note, posting a 128 wRC+ in August and September, but the early season damage was already done. As one of the most expensive players in the Ottoneu universe, a lost season from Betts was bound to have repercussions, and he wound up being the second most cut player at the deadline. Still, if we chalk up his struggles in 2025 to his spring illness, then a bounce back season in ‘26 is more than likely. The projections see a wide range of potential outcomes — ZiPS is projecting him at a 131 wRC+ while OOPSY is all the way down at 118 — but his history of production is good enough that you should expect to pay top dollar for him in the draft. His average salary after the cut deadline is nearly $50, though I’d expect that to fall a bit once he’s drafted in all those leagues where he’s available.

I really want to believe in Lars Nootbaar’s skillset. He’s got an excellent approach at the plate and his contact quality is fantastic. He lowered his groundball rate by nearly 15 points in 2025, but despite a hard hit rate of 50%, he didn’t see a big improvement in results on contact. A lot of that added air contact was hit at too high launch angles or hit to the opposite field. In other words, despite embracing “elevate and celebrate,” all that elevated contact wasn’t optimized for damage. To make matters worse, he played through a rib injury for some of the season and then had surgery to correct issues in both of his heels this offseason. I want to believe in Nootbaar, but between the injury issues and the difficulty translating his contact quality into real results, I’m not sold on a bounce back from him.

After a very successful first year in the US, Shota Imanaga took a pretty significant step back in his second season in Chicago. The twin culprits were a strikeout rate that dropped by nearly five points and a groundball rate that fell eight points. With all that extra elevated contact allowed, he saw a corresponding jump in home runs allowed that shot his FIP up by more than a run. Homers are a death knell for any pitcher in Ottoneu and so it’s no surprise to see Imanaga on the chopping block. I think it’s probably reasonable to expect a bit of a bounce back — his SIERA and xFIP were both well below his actual FIP in 2025 — but getting back to his outstanding ‘24 season is probably out of the question. As a fly ball heavy pitcher, his success will wax and wane based on his home run rate which gives him a pretty volatile profile.

Largest Drop in Average Salary — All Ottoneu Leagues
Player Roster% Delta Post-Arb Avg Salary Post Cut Avg Salary Avg Salary Delta
Mookie Betts -70.9% $56.86 $48.40 -$8.46
Ozzie Albies -61.9% $21.07 $15.08 -$5.99
Aaron Nola -58.5% $19.72 $14.83 -$4.89
Zack Wheeler -49.2% $31.61 $27.25 -$4.36
Jose Altuve -61.6% $28.89 $24.76 -$4.13
Mike Trout -58.3% $30.92 $26.81 -$4.11
Freddie Freeman -55.0% $42.93 $38.85 -$4.08
Austin Riley -45.7% $33.53 $29.93 -$3.60
Marcus Semien -35.8% $16.03 $12.44 -$3.59
Zac Gallen -58.6% $19.81 $16.25 -$3.56

The table above lists players who saw their average salaries drop the most after the cut deadline. As you’d expect, there are a bunch of aging stars and once-great players who suffered a sudden dip in performance in 2025.

Man, what happened to Ozzie Albies? You could chalk up his power outage in 2024 to a broken wrist suffered in July of that season. But then he didn’t bounce back in ‘25; his ISO dropped to a career-low .124 and he blasted only 16 home runs. Even though we only have limited bat speed data, Albies’s average bat speed dropped a full tick from 2023 to ‘24 and it didn’t bounce back last year when he was supposedly healthy. His contact quality has never really been all that great but he made the most of it every season until last year. He’s still only 29 years old, but unless he rediscovers an extra gear with his bat speed, I’m afraid his best days are already in the past.

Oh look, another Braves hitter who really struggled last year. At least with Austin Riley, you can point to a hand injury in 2024 and three separate core injuries in ‘25 to explain his struggles. Then again, his production at the plate had already started to decline slightly in 2023, and really reached fever pitch when his plate discipline started slipping in ‘24. It deteriorated further in 2025 when he got more aggressive at the plate while running a slightly higher whiff rate. The good news is that his contact quality was still elite which means the only thing he needs to work on is his approach. Of all the guys on the two lists in this article, Riley is the one I’m most confident in predicting a bounce back this year.

Finally, here’s a long list of players cut in more than 50% of all Ottoneu leagues.

Players Cut in More than 50% of Ottoneu Leagues
Player Post-Arb Roster% Post-Cut Roster% Roster% Delta
Ronny Henriquez 91.7% 12.7% -79.1%
Mookie Betts 89.0% 18.1% -70.9%
Lars Nootbaar 87.2% 16.6% -70.6%
Triston Casas 86.9% 17.5% -69.4%
Shota Imanaga 91.1% 22.9% -68.2%
Austin Hays 90.8% 22.9% -67.9%
Tanner Scott 84.4% 16.6% -67.8%
Ha-seong Kim 78.3% 11.7% -66.5%
Marcell Ozuna 78.3% 12.0% -66.2%
Christian Walker 89.0% 22.9% -66.1%
Coby Mayo 92.4% 28.0% -64.3%
Jesús Sánchez 84.1% 19.9% -64.2%
Luis Arraez 86.5% 22.6% -64.0%
Trevor Larnach 82.6% 19.0% -63.6%
Lucas Giolito 89.9% 26.8% -63.1%
Nick Castellanos 71.3% 9.3% -61.9%
Ozzie Albies 88.4% 26.5% -61.9%
Jose Altuve 92.4% 30.7% -61.6%
Kodai Senga 80.1% 20.8% -59.3%
Cedric Mullins 73.7% 14.5% -59.2%
Bryan Reynolds 90.5% 31.9% -58.6%
Zac Gallen 90.2% 31.6% -58.6%
Aaron Nola 81.3% 22.9% -58.5%
Anthony Volpe 79.5% 21.1% -58.4%
Mike Trout 90.5% 32.2% -58.3%
Justin Verlander 64.8% 6.6% -58.2%
Gavin Lux 74.6% 17.2% -57.4%
Josh Lowe 84.7% 27.7% -57.0%
Luke Weaver 84.4% 28.0% -56.4%
Brandon Pfaadt 75.8% 19.6% -56.3%
Mark Vientos 91.7% 35.5% -56.2%
Tyler O’Neill 72.2% 16.3% -55.9%
José Berríos 68.5% 12.7% -55.9%
Wenceel Pérez 71.9% 16.3% -55.6%
Yusei Kikuchi 70.6% 15.4% -55.3%
Adley Rutschman 87.2% 31.9% -55.2%
Luis Castillo 85.9% 30.7% -55.2%
Isaac Collins 83.8% 28.6% -55.2%
J.T. Realmuto 77.4% 22.3% -55.1%
Freddie Freeman 93.9% 38.9% -55.0%
Grayson Rodriguez 96.9% 42.2% -54.8%
Jeremiah Jackson 67.0% 12.7% -54.3%
Tommy Edman 67.0% 13.0% -54.0%
Shawn Armstrong 65.4% 11.7% -53.7%
Taj Bradley 71.9% 18.4% -53.5%
Teoscar Hernández 93.3% 40.1% -53.2%
Spencer Steer 91.1% 38.0% -53.2%
Max Scherzer 59.0% 6.3% -52.7%
Bryce Harper 96.3% 44.0% -52.4%
Christian Moore 76.8% 24.7% -52.1%
Josh Jung 71.6% 19.9% -51.7%
Bailey Ober 67.0% 15.4% -51.6%
Clayton Kershaw 53.5% 2.1% -51.4%
Tyler Freeman 67.9% 16.6% -51.3%
Nick Gonzales 61.8% 10.5% -51.2%
Michael Kopech 59.0% 7.8% -51.2%
Yu Darvish 55.0% 3.9% -51.1%
Royce Lewis 93.9% 43.1% -50.8%
Dalton Rushing 84.4% 33.7% -50.7%
Chris Bassitt 70.6% 20.2% -50.5%
Matt Strahm 89.3% 38.9% -50.4%
Sean Manaea 77.4% 27.1% -50.3%

Ottoneu: Jake’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions at SP

by
January 8, 2026
Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu keeper deadline is quickly approaching. There’s less than a month left to make your roster decisions before the January 31 cut deadline. I’m going through a handful of difficult keep or cut decisions at every position group to give you a transparent look at my decision making process and hopefully help you with theses specific cases for these specific players. I’ve already covered hitters in three separate articles — corner infielders, middle infielders, and outfielders — now I’m wrapping everything by covering three starting pitchers.

–

Kodai Senga, SP
Salary: $16, $17
Average Salary: $18
2025 P/G: 4.33
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.16

I’m not sure the Mets know what to do with Kodai Senga so I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t know what to do with him on your fantasy squad. Injuries cost him nearly all of 2024 and a hamstring injury in June derailed his season a year later. Before that injury, he had put up a 1.47 ERA and a 3.24 FIP in 13 starts. During the rehab from his injury, his mechanics were thrown out of whack, and after he returned to the majors, he produced a 5.90 ERA and 5.76 FIP across nine starts. Ultimately, he was demoted to Triple-A in September to work on those mechanical inconsistencies.

Even if Senga is completely healthy in 2026, there were enough yellow flags in his first-half performance that a rebound back to the level of his excellent 2023 debut isn’t necessarily guaranteed. During those first 13 starts of the season, his strikeout-minus-walk rate was 13.3%, just a hair below league average and well short of the 18.0% K-BB% he posted during his first season in the US. Most of that was driven by a significant drop in strikeout rate.

You could point to his signature pitch, the ghost fork, as the reason why he wasn’t seeing as many swings and misses in 2025. And while that pitch was a little less effective last year, it was his cutter that saw the most dramatic drop in effectiveness. In 2023, his cutter was the fourth most valuable pitch in baseball by Run Value with a 2.9 RV/100, far outpacing his forkball (1.0 RV/100). In 2025, his cutter was exactly neutral with a 0.0 RV/100. Unlike his diving forkball, Senga’s cutter was a contact suppression machine during its peak, but batters made much higher quality contact against that pitch last year. That combination — a forkball that wasn’t getting as many swings and misses and a cutter that wasn’t generating as much weak contact — has me worried that Senga’s ceiling is far lower than we might think.

The projections are picking up on those concerns and see Senga taking a pretty significant step back in 2026. Health concerns aside, there are enough flags in his pitch arsenal that present enough risk to steer clear. And when you add his mechanical issues and injury history back into the picture, it’s a pretty easy call to avoid paying too high a price for Senga in 2026.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting Senga in both of my leagues where I’m rostering him and I doubt I’ll be looking to redraft him in the spring.

–

Gavin Williams, SP
Salary: $11, $9, $8
Average Salary: $9
2025 P/G: 4.22
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.03

Through his first 11 starts of the year, Gavin Williams put up a rough 4.27 ERA and 4.65 FIP. It wasn’t terrible, but it was a concerning start to the season after an up-and-down year in 2024. From the beginning of June through the end of the season, his ERA fell by nearly two full runs down to 2.50 but his FIP only dropped to 4.27. His strikeout-to-walk ratio improved slightly during those final four months of the season but the biggest reason his ERA improved was thanks to a .221 BABIP and a 87.5% strand rate. Most of his underlying peripherals pointed to the same pitcher on the mound, but a ton of good batted ball luck helped him flip his season.

For Ottoneu players, an improved ERA shouldn’t necessarily help Williams’s fantasy production and a FIP above four is usually a bad sign. But here’s where understanding the ins and outs of your given format becomes extremely important.

Gavin Williams, Ottoneu Points Performance
Time Period FIP BABIP FGpts/IP SABRpts/IP
Prior to June 4.65 0.323 3.43 3.47
June Onward 4.27 0.221 4.57 3.86

In Ottoneu leagues using the FanGraphs points system — which critically takes hits allowed into account — Williams dramatically improved his production during the later half of the season. In leagues using the SABR points system — using only the inputs for FIP — Williams’s season was frustrating from start to finish.

As for Williams’s pitch arsenal, he was able to develop a very effective sweeper last year that returned a 44.0% whiff rate. That’s an excellent pitch to add to his repertoire, though his lack of command holds him back from really raising his ceiling. That’s sort of the big issue with his profile. He has a good, hard fastball, two excellent breaking balls, but he needed some incredible batted ball luck to turn into an effective pitcher for fantasy. His command was still an issue throughout the season, leading to some pretty inconsistent outings. Still, his Location+ improved from 91 during the first two months to 96 through the end of the year. That’s something to build off of, but until he’s able to make some significant improvements in that area, I fear his excellent stuff will be held back from reaching its maximum potential.

Keep or cut?

Thankfully, all three leagues where I’m rostering Williams use FanGraphs points, so I was able to partially enjoy his second half improvements in 2025. I’m probably keeping him at $8 and $9 but I think I’ll be cutting him at $11. His inconsistencies and command issues make him a risk to roster at a double-digit salary.

–

Yusei Kikuchi, SP
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $8
2025 P/G: 3.78
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.09

Coming off what seemed to be a mini-breakout during his short 10 start stint with the Astros during the second half of 2024, Yusei Kikuchi latched on with the Angels last year. Even though he was leaving the pitching development powerhouse in Houston, I expected the changes he implemented while he was there to stick in Los Angeles. Unfortunately, they didn’t. Some mechanical issues led to a drop in velocity and a lower arm slot affected the shapes of all his pitches. He spent most of the season working out the kinks in his delivery, slowly raising his arm slot and regaining some of his velocity.

I think the thing that worries me the most is the effectiveness of Kikuchi’s fastball. He’s one of the hardest throwing left-handers in baseball, but he’s entering his age-35 season in 2026. His velocity dropped early last year, and even though he regained it in the middle of the season, it dropped again in August and September and his results tanked along with it.

Last year, he generated the lowest whiff rate on his fastball since his debut season in 2019. Both his slider and changeup were a little less effective at getting swings and misses too. It all added up to a 5.5 point drop in strikeout rate and a much higher walk rate that was more in line with what he was posting during his time in Seattle.

Kikuchi has never been a model of consistency during his career. He’ll have dominant stretches from time to time, but his command issues have often held him back from reaching his ceiling. It looked like he had turned a corner in Toronto and Houston in 2023 and ‘24, but he came crashing back down last year thanks to his mechanical troubles. Steamer projects a small bounce back but he’s getting to the point in his career where the velocity of his fastball is sitting on a knife’s edge; dip just a little and the whole repertoire comes crashing down.

Keep or cut?

$5 is probably the highest I’d want to roster Kikuchi for heading into next season. There’s always the possibility he’ll figure out his mechanics over the offseason and post another strong season like he did in 2024, but there are too many flags to risk anything higher than that. I’ll probably keep him at $5, but he’s a quick cut if his fastball isn’t looking good in the spring.


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