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Ottoneu Drip: Last-Minute Pitchers to Add: September 23, 2025

Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. The final week of the season is upon us. Hitting your innings pitched cap in Ottoneu leagues is one of the most important ways you can maximize your roster to its fullest extent. And because it’s a soft cap, you can stack as many starters as you can on the day you’ll hit the cap, and you’ll receive all the points from those pitchers.

If you’re planning ahead, you might want to think about adding one or two of the following under-rostered pitchers for their start during the final weekend of the season if you can line everything up correctly. Here are 12 starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who have a good matchup this weekend.

Last-Minute Starters, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Pts/IP Roster% Weekend Opponent
Joey Wentz ATL 9 1.48 22.0% 5.60 10.1% PIT
Kyle Harrison BOS 9 2.59 13.5% 5.93 54.7% DET
Jameson Taillon CHC 17.1 2.80 7.5% 5.77 38.8% STL
Colin Rea CHC 12.1 0.55 34.0% 7.68 26.0% STL
Slade Cecconi CLE 20.2 3.05 14.1% 6.76 48.0% TEX
Kyle Freeland COL 17.1 2.34 12.8% 4.87 5.5% @SFG
AJ Blubaugh HOU 10.1 1.40 27.8% 8.41 8.9% @LAA
Chad Patrick MIL 10.2 2.77 23.3% 5.57 48.9% CIN
Walker Buehler PHI 8.2 3.15 8.1% 5.18 22.6% MIN
Mike Burrows PIT 12.1 1.20 26.0% 6.80 30.6% @ATL
Kai-Wei Teng SFG 7 4.86 25.8% 4.67 6.1% COL
Trevor McDonald SFG 8 2.90 5.9% 4.73 0.0% COL

Atlanta might have one of the easiest matchups this weekend as they host the punchless Pirates. Joey Wentz has been serviceable while eating up innings on Atlanta’s injury depleted pitching staff. He isn’t pitching deep into games but over his last two starts, he’s run a 4.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio with 12 Ks in nine innings.

Now that Payton Tolle has been shifted to the bullpen for the remainder of the season, Kyle Harrison has taken his place in the starting rotation. He looked excellent in his first start with Boston on Saturday, pitching six innings of one-run ball against the Rays while striking out five. His scheduled start this weekend comes against a struggling and desperate Tigers ballclub.

The Cardinals have posted a .289 wOBA over the last 14 days, 22nd in baseball. They’re pretty punchless with both Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn sidelined for the rest of the season. Colin Rea and Jameson Taillon have had their ups and downs this year but the matchup looks good enough to think about streaming them for their final starts of the season.

Like the rest of the Guardians pitching staff, Slade Cecconi has been excellent over the last few weeks. He’s allowed just two runs in 20.2 innings across his previous three starts with a 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cleveland will be fighting for a chance to sneak into the playoffs this weekend and the Rangers offense hasn’t been very good in September.

The Giants-Rockies series in San Francisco this weekend looks like it’s ripe for plenty of pitching points. Neither team has been very good offensively and the ballpark is a haven for pitchers. For Colorado, Kyle Freeland is probably the one starter worth looking at unless you want to risk starting Germán Márquez. For San Francisco, the options are two rookies in Kai-Wei Teng and Trevor McDonald. Neither has an impressive track record, but the matchup might be too juicy to pass up.

AJ Blubaugh has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the Astros down the stretch but he’ll likely get an opportunity to start against the Angels this weekend. He hasn’t allowed a run since a four inning bulk relief appearance back on August 23, a stretch of 17 scoreless innings. During this scoreless streak, he’s posted a very impressive 7.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has allowed just five hits.

Chad Patrick was a critical piece of the Brewers starting rotation earlier this year while they dealt with numerous injuries on their pitching staff. Once the team got healthy, Patrick was relegated to the minor leagues, but the injury bug has struck again and he’s now back with the team providing solid innings out of the rotation and the bullpen. Since being recalled in mid-August, he’s provided a 3.72 FIP in 21 innings while posting a very good 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Walker Buehler’s season has been a disaster but he’s at least looked serviceable with the Phillies since joining the club in September. You’ve really got to trust that Philadelphia identified and fixed whatever issues were plaguing him in Boston. At least the matchup against the Twins doesn’t look too bad.

Mike Burrows has been a frequent recommendation in this column this year. After some struggles in July and early August, he’s been absolutely fantastic down the stretch. Across his last six outings — two four starts and two bulk relief outings — he’s posted a 1.60 FIP and allowed five runs in 21.1 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio during this stretch has been an absolutely fantastic 6.0. He’s been piggybacked with another one of Pittsburgh’s young pitchers in each of his last three starts so he’s not getting very deep into games, but the high quality of his innings means he’s racking up the points in September.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 22–28

Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Welcome to the final Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner of the season. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 22–28
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI LAD (71) @SDP (98) Brandon Pfaadt (x2), Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Eduardo Rodriguez Nabil Crismatt
ATH HOU (51) KCR (66) J.T. Ginn, Luis Severino, Luis Morales Mason Barnett (x2), Jeffrey Springs
ATL WSN (112) PIT (157) Chris Sale (x2), Hurston Waldrep, Spencer Strider Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz
BAL TBR (143) @NYY (63) Tyler Wells, Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish Dean Kremer, Cade Povich Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS @TOR (83) DET (108) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito (x2), Connelly Early Brayan Bello, Kyle Harrison
CHC NYM (100) STL (161) Cade Horton (x2), Matthew Boyd Shota Imanaga Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon
CHW @NYY (63) @WSN (145) Shane Smith (@WSN) Smith (@NYY), Sean Burke Martín Pérez, Davis Martin, Yoendrys Gómez
CIN PIT (126) @MIL (68) Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo Brady Singer (vPIT), Andrew Abbott Singer (@MIL) Zack Littell
CLE DET (131) TEX (116) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Parker Messick Joey Cantillo Logan Allen로건, Slade Cecconi
COL @SEA (100) @SFG (167) Kyle Freeland McCade Brown (x2), Tanner Gordon, Bradley Blalock, Germán Márquez
DET @CLE (131) @BOS (69) Jack Flaherty (@CLE), Tarik Skubal Flaherty (@BOS) Charlie Morton, Casey Mize Keider Montero
HOU @ATH (20) @LAA (107) Hunter Brown Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier (@LAA) Javier (@ATH), Jason Alexander AJ Blubaugh
KCR @LAA (107) @ATH (20) Cole Ragans (@LAA) Stephen Kolek, Michael Wacha, Ragans (@ATH) Michael Lorenzen, Noah Cameron
LAA KCR (76) HOU (61) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Mitch Farris, Kyle Hendricks
LAD @ARI (65) @SEA (100) Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan
MIA @PHI (29) NYM (80) Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez Ryan Weathers (x2), Janson Junk Adam Mazur
MIL @SDP (98) CIN (117) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Robert Gasser
MIN @TEX (121) @PHI (29) Pablo López Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM @CHC (87) @MIA (97) Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean David Peterson (x2), Jonah Tong, Clay Holmes
NYY CHW (125) BAL (134) Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlittler Luis Gil (x2), Will Warren
PHI MIA (70) MIN (79) Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Walker Buehler, Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola
PIT @CIN (81) @ATL (95) Paul Skenes Braxton Ashcraft, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows Johan Oviedo
SDP MIL (59) ARI (70) Nick Pivetta (x2), Dylan Cease, Michael King Yu Darvish Randy Vásquez
SEA COL (178) LAD (83) Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert Bryce Miller (x2)
SFG STL (169) COL (182) Logan Webb, Robbie Ray Justin Verlander (x2) Kai-Wei Teng Carson Whisenhunt (?)
STL @SFG (167) @CHC (87) Sonny Gray Michael McGreevy (x2) Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR @BAL (128) @TOR (83) Ian Seymour (x2), Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz, Adrian Houser
TEX MIN (80) @CLE (131) Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2), Jacob deGrom, Jack Leiter Tyler Mahle Patrick Corbin
TOR BOS (92) TBR (130) Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber Max Scherzer, Trey Yesavage José Berríos, Chris Bassitt
WSN @ATL (95) CHW (139) MacKenzie Gore Brad Lord, Cade Cavalli Jake Irvin (x2), Andrew Alvarez, Mitchell Parker

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 15–21

Credit: James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 15–21
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SFG (72) PHI (89) Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson Eduardo Rodriguez, Nabil Crismatt
ATH @BOS (60) @PIT (158) Luis Severino, Luis Morales J.T. Ginn, Jeffrey Springs (@PIT) Springs (@BOS), Mason Barnett
ATL @WSN (138) @DET (79) Chris Sale, Hurston Waldrep Spencer Strider (x2) Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz Dane Dunning (?)
BAL @CHW (108) NYY (104) Kyle Bradish (x2), Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS ATH (45) @TBR (55) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Connelly Early (x2), Brayan Bello, Payton Tolle
CHC @PIT (158) @CIN (63) Cade Horton (x2), Matthew Boyd Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon (x2), Colin Rea
CHW BAL (120) SDP (101) Sean Burke (x2), Shane Smith, Martín Pérez Davis Martin, Yoendrys Gómez
CIN @STL (166) CHC (37) Andrew Abbott (@STL), Hunter Greene Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Abbott (vCHC) Zack Littell (x2)
CLE @DET (79) @MIN (99) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen로건, Parker Messick, John Means (?), Slade Cecconi
COL MIA (72) LAA (108) Kyle Freeland (x2), McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela, Germán Márquez
DET CLE (163) ATL (163) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Casey Mize (x2), Charlie Morton Sawyer Gipson-Long
HOU TEX (140) SEA (51) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier Jason Alexander (vTEX) Alexander (vSEA), AJ Blubaugh
KCR SEA (44) TOR (61) Michael Wacha (x2) Stephen Kolek, Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert, Noah Cameron
LAA @MIL (75) @COL (77) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Kyle Hendricks (x2), Mitch Farris, Caden Dana
LAD PHI (73) SFG (56) Shohei Ohtani (x2), Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @COL (77) @TEX (151) Sandy Alcantara Eury Pérez (x2), Ryan Weathers, Janson Junk Adam Mazur
MIL LAA (130) @STL (166) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester
MIN NYY (87) CLE (145) Pablo López, Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober
NYM SDP (133) WSN (119) Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Nolan McLean Sean Manaea, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat
NYY @MIN (99) @BAL (118) Carlos Rodón (x2), Max Fried Cam Schlittler (x2), Will Warren Luis Gil
PHI @LAD (85) @ARI (115) Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola Walker Buehler
PIT CHC (74) ATH (62) Paul Skenes (x2) Mitch Keller Johan Oviedo, Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows
SDP @NYM (71) @CHW (108) Nick Pivetta Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease Yu Darvish Randy Vásquez
SEA @KCR (162) @HOU (126) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo, George Kirby Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo
SFG @ARI (115) @LAD (85) Logan Webb Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray Carson Whisenhunt (x2), Carson Seymour (x2)
STL CIN (142) MIL (75) Sonny Gray Michael McGreevy Matthew Liberatore (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR TOR (33) BOS (50) Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot (x2) Ian Seymour (x2), Shane Baz, Adrian Houser
TEX @HOU (126) MIA (96) Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tyler Mahle (?) Patrick Corbin
TOR @TBR (55) @KCR (162) Kevin Gausman (x2), Shane Bieber José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer
WSN ATL (147) @NYM (71) MacKenzie Gore, Brad Lord Cade Cavalli Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin, Andrew Alvarez

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 8–14

Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 8–14
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SFG (110) @MIN (97) Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson Nabil Crismatt (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH BOS (40) CIN (82) Luis Severino, Luis Morales (vCIN) Morales (vBOS), J.T. Ginn Jeffrey Springs, Mason Barnett
ATL CHC (68) HOU (77) Chris Sale Hurston Waldrep, Spencer Strider Joey Wentz (x2) Bryce Elder
BAL PIT (123) @TOR (46) Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, Dean Kremer Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS @ATH (61) NYY (30) Garrett Crochet (x2) Payton Tolle Dustin May, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello
CHC @ATL (109) TBR (114) Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd Shota Imanaga (x2) Jameson Taillon (?), Colin Rea
CHW TBR (83) @CLE (169) Martín Pérez Yoendrys Gómez (x2), Shane Smith Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin
CIN @SDP (117) @ATH (61) Nick Lodolo (@SDP), Andrew Abbott Hunter Greene, Lodolo (@ATH) Brady Singer Zack Littell
CLE KCR (122) CHW (122) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Parker Messick Slade Cecconi (x2), Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen로건
COL @LAD (72) @SDP (117) Chase Dollander (x2), Germán Márquez (x2), Kyle Freeland, McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon
DET @NYY (41) @MIA (136) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty, Charlie Morton Casey Mize Sawyer Gipson-Long (x2)
HOU @TOR (46) @ATL (109) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Jason Alexander (x2), Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia
KCR @CLE (169) @PHI (50) Michael Wacha Ryan Bergert (@CLE), Noah Cameron (@CLE), Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen, Bergert (@PHI), Cameron (@PHI)
LAA MIN (92) @SEA (144) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Caden Dana (x2), Kyle Hendricks (x2), Mitch Farris
LAD COL (146) @SFG (110) Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan
MIA WSN (112) DET (95) Sandy Alcantara Janson Junk (?), Eury Pérez (x2), Ryan Weathers (?) Adam Mazur
MIL @TEX (92) STL (136) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Jose Quintana (x2), Quinn Priester
MIN @LAA (120) ARI (97) Joe Ryan, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Zebby Matthews, Bailey Ober
NYM @PHI (50) TEX (93) Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Jonah Tong, Sean Manaea (vTEX) Manaea (@PHI), Brandon Sproat
NYY DET (88) @BOS (53) Max Fried Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlittler Will Warren (x2), Luis Gil
PHI NYM (37) KCR (104) Cristopher Sánchez Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola (x2), Taijuan Walker Walker Buehler (?)
PIT @BAL (93) @WSN (144) Braxton Ashcraft (x2), Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Johan Oviedo, Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP CIN (121) COL (159) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Yu Darvish (vCOL) Darvish (vCIN), Nestor Cortes (x2)
SEA STL (164) LAA (151) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo
SFG ARI (121) LAD (123) Logan Webb (x2) Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander Carson Whisenhunt Carson Seymour
STL @SEA (144) @MIL (72) Michael McGreevy, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante
TBR @CHW (107) @CHC (117) Ryan Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen Ian Seymour Adrian Houser (x2), Shane Baz
TEX MIL (47) @NYM (61) Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jacob Latz (x2), Patrick Corbin
TOR HOU (80) BAL (112) Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt
WSN @MIA (136) PIT (110) Cade Cavalli (x2) Brad Lord Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin, Andrew Alvarez

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 1–7

Credit: Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 1–7
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TEX (93) BOS (114) Ryne Nelson (x2), Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt Eduardo Rodriguez Nabil Crismatt
ATH @STL (146) @LAA (125) Luis Morales (x2) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, J.T. Ginn Osvaldo Bido
ATL @CHC (151) SEA (75) Spencer Strider, Chris Sale Joey Wentz, Hurston Waldrep Cal Quantrill, Bryce Elder
BAL @SDP (123) LAD (109) Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells (?), Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS CLE (154) @ARI (91) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello (x2), Payton Tolle, Lucas Giolito Dustin May
CHC ATL (102) WSN (137) Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd Colin Rea (vWSN) Rea (vATL), Javier Assad
CHW @MIN (109) @DET (84) Aaron Civale (x2), Shane Smith, Martín Pérez Davis Martin (x2), Yoendrys Gómez
CIN TOR (26) NYM (21) Hunter Greene (x2), Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott Brady Singer Zack Littell
CLE @BOS (86) @TBR (77) Parker Messick (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건 Slade Cecconi (x2)
COL SFG (68) SDP (84) Chase Dollander, Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez, McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon
DET NYM (72) CHW (131) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton (x2) Casey Mize, Chris Paddack
HOU NYY (41) @TEX (96) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Luis Garcia (?), Jason Alexander, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR LAA (123) MIN (123) Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen (x2), Noah Cameron Ryan Bergert, Seth Lugo
LAA @KCR (97) ATH (48) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Caden Dana (?)
LAD @PIT (116) @BAL (123) Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @WSN (148) PHI (91) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara Ryan Gusto (x2), Adam Mazur
MIL PHI (88) @PIT (116) Jacob Misiorowski (x2), Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester
MIN CHW (113) @KCR (97) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Pablo López (?) Bailey Ober (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel
NYM @DET (84) @CIN (103) Nolan McLean, David Peterson Sean Manaea (x2), Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (?), Kodai Senga
NYY @HOU (151) TOR (47) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil
PHI @MIL (90) @MIA (147) Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker (x2), Aaron Nola
PIT LAD (92) MIL (67) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Mike Burrows (x2), Braxton Ashcraft Johan Oviedo
SDP BAL (151) @COL (79) Dylan Cease (vBAL) Yu Darvish, Nestor Cortes, Nick Pivetta, Cease (@COL) Michael King (?)
SEA @TBR (77) @ATL (82) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller
SFG @COL (79) @STL (146) Logan Webb, Justin Verlander Robbie Ray, Keaton Winn (?) Carson Whisenhunt (x2)
STL ATH (90) SFG (118) Sonny Gray (x2) Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante
TBR SEA (47) CLE (140) Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (vCLE) Baz (vSEA), Adrian Houser, Ian Seymour
TEX @ARI (91) HOU (112) Jacob deGrom Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin (x2)
TOR @CIN (103) @NYY (37) Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Eric Lauer 라우어, Max Scherzer
WSN MIA (123) @CHC (151) MacKenzie Gore (x2), Brad Lord Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: August 29, 2025

Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. If you’re in an Ottoneu head-to-head league, the playoffs begin on Monday. Here are five starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who might be a benefit to your first-round playoff matchup.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 30 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Justin Verlander SFG 32.1 2.38 20.0% 112 5.28 50.46%
Luis Morales ATH 22.2 3.08 13.6% 106 6.07 43.12%
Ian Seymour TBR 18.2 3.39 27.4% 94 5.53 30.28%
Joey Wentz ATL 33.1 3.18 8.8% 93 5.16 19.57%
Martín Pérez CHW 15.2 1.91 21.1% 86 7.45 11.32%

This isn’t the same Justin Verlander who could carry a fantasy pitching staff for much of his career, but don’t be so quick to write off the seemingly ageless veteran. Since the All-Star break, he has a 3.05 FIP thanks to a miniscule home run rate and a pretty good strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA during this same period is more than a run higher than his peripherals would indicate, but because Ottoneu uses FIP-based scoring, it’s actually okay that he’s allowing a few more runs than expected, as long as he’s also preventing home runs too. Next week, he avoids the Giants’ series in Colorado and has a nice matchup against the punchless Cardinals in the pitcher-friendly ballpark in St. Louis.

Luis Morales has very quickly established himself in the big leagues after making his debut on August 1. He entered the season as the A’s top pitching prospect, though he’s pretty raw at this stage of his development. He only signed as an international amateur out of Cuba in January 2023 and had an absolutely meteoric rise through the Athletics’ farm system. He’s looked pretty dominant in the majors already; in his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs total while striking out 18 in 18 innings. He’s got the skills and stuff to be a frontline pitcher for the A’s as he continues to develop. Next week is a nice two-start week against two pretty weak teams (@STL and @LAA) away from the launching pad in Sacramento.

Ian Seymour only recently made the jump to the starting rotation after making 12 appearances out of the Rays bullpen. Lucas Kelly featured him in his Hot Right Now column yesterday, writing:

Much of [Seymour’s] success can be attributed to his changeup. Its 16.0% swinging strike rate has been above average when compared to pitchers who have thrown at least 150 of them this season. With a small sample, Seymour’s fastball is performing better than you might expect, holding an 11.9% swinging strike rate. The pitch has a below-average Stuff+, Location+, and averages 92 MPH.

Some pretty violent mechanics led to some scouting reservations and put a cap on his potential ceiling as a prospect. His one start was excellent — a shutout affair with eight strikeouts in five innings — granted, it came against the Guardians who are the worst hitting team in baseball. Still, he’s lined up to face Cleveland again in his start next week.

After struggling to establish himself in Detroit to start his career, Joey Wentz has finally found some success in Atlanta, his third organization this year. While the results have been nice (3.43 ERA with the Braves), his peripherals paint a different picture. His FIP in Atlanta is a sparkling 3.03 but that’s almost entirely propped up by a miniscule 4.3% HR/FB rate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty mediocre and he’s dealt with some command issues in his recent past. You might be able to get away with a good start or two if his home run luck holds, but the foundation doesn’t look very solid.

Martín Pérez also got a passing mention in Kelly’s column yesterday, but I wanted to highlight him here too because he’s actually been surprisingly good for the White Sox this year. He’s running the highest strikeout rate of his career at 22.9% and the biggest difference is an emphasis on his cutter as his primary pitch rather than his sinker. His changeup has continued to be an elite weapon, but that pitch mix change has earned him a lot more whiffs than before. The big red flag is that his contact management peripherals all scream for some regression. He’s allowed a 12.9% barrel rate but just one home run this year and his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all more than a full run higher than his FIP. His start against the Yankees on Sunday might help you determine if you’d want to stream him next week for his start against the Tigers in Detroit.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 25–31

Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 25–31
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @MIL (72) @LAD (46) Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Brandon Pfaadt (x2) Nabil Crismatt
ATH DET (68) TEX (79) Jacob Lopez J.T. Ginn (x2), Jack Perkins, Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs
ATL @MIA (120) @PHI (37) Hurston Waldrep Spencer Strider (x2), Joey Wentz Chris Sale (?) Cal Quantrill, Bryce Elder
BAL BOS (106) @SFG (182) Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish (@SFG) Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Bradish (vBOS), Cade Povich
BOS @BAL (119) PIT (136) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito (x2), Dustin May Brayan Bello Walker Buehler (x2)
CHC @SFG (182) @COL (51) Matthew Boyd (@SFG), Shota Imanaga Boyd (@COL) Colin Rea, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon
CHW KCR (64) NYY (21) Aaron Civale Shane Smith (x2), Martín Pérez (x2), Davis Martin, Yoendrys Gómez
CIN @LAD (46) STL (101) Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene (vSTL) Greene (@LAD), Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer Nick Martinez
CLE TBR (156) SEA (94) Tanner Bibee (x2), Parker Messick, Gavin Williams Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL @HOU (146) CHC (74) Tanner Gordon (x2), Chase Dollander, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber
DET @ATH (37) @KCR (95) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty Charlie Morton, Casey Mize, Chris Paddack
HOU COL (128) LAA (88) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti Luis Garcia (?)
KCR @CHW (126) DET (97) Michael Wacha Noah Cameron (x2), Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert, Seth Lugo
LAA @TEX (127) @HOU (146) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Kyle Hendricks (x2), Tyler Anderson, Victor Mederos
LAD CIN (93) ARI (52) Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw
MIA ATL (78) @NYM (72) Edward Cabrera (x2), Sandy Alcantara (x2), Eury Pérez Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk
MIL ARI (50) @TOR (72) Brandon Woodruff Jacob Misiorowski (x2), Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester (x2), Jose Quintana
MIN @TOR (72) SDP (104) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson José Ureña
NYM PHI (101) MIA (113) David Peterson Kodai Senga (x2), Sean Manaea (x2), Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes
NYY WSN (91) @CHW (126) Max Fried Cam Schlittler (x2), Luis Gil (x2), Will Warren, Carlos Rodón
PHI @NYM (72) ATL (75) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo (x2), Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola
PIT @STL (133) @BOS (71) Mitch Keller (@STL), Paul Skenes Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Keller (@BOS) Johan Oviedo (x2)
SDP @SEA (146) @MIN (124) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta JP Sears, Yu Darvish Nestor Cortes
SEA SDP (124) @CLE (161) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller (@CLE) Miller (vSDP), Luis Castillo
SFG CHC (128) BAL (171) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander (vBAL) Verlander (vCHC), Carson Whisenhunt
STL PIT (168) @CIN (72) Michael McGreevy (vPIT), Sonny Gray McGreevy (@CIN) Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR @CLE (161) @WSN (133) Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (x2), Joe Boyle, Adrian Houser
TEX LAA (78) @ATH (37) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Patrick Corbin
TOR MIN (146) MIL (46) Max Scherzer (vMIN), Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Scherzer (vMIL)
WSN @NYY (38) TBR (148) Brad Lord (vTBR) Lord (@NYY), MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 18–24

Credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 18–24
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI CLE (156) CIN (131) Zac Gallen (x2) Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson Casey Kelly 켈리 (?)
ATH @MIN (124) @SEA (149) Jacob Lopez (x2), Jeffrey Springs J.T. Ginn, Jack Perkins Luis Morales
ATL CHW (140) NYM (80) Spencer Strider (x2) Hurston Waldrep, Joey Wentz Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde 페디
BAL @BOS (58) HOU (91) Trevor Rogers (x2) Tomoyuki Sugano, Kyle Bradish (?), Cade Povich, Dean Kremer
BOS BAL (152) @NYY (81) Garrett Crochet Dustin May (vBAL) Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, May (@NYY)
CHC MIL (54) @LAA (91) Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga Cade Horton (x2), Jameson Taillon (?) Colin Rea, Javier Assad
CHW @ATL (96) MIN (128) Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke, Davis Martin Yoendrys Gómez (x2)
CIN @LAA (91) @ARI (52) Hunter Greene Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo (?) Zack Littell
CLE @ARI (52) @TEX (159) Gavin Williams (@TEX) Williams (@ARI), Tanner Bibee, Slade Cecconi Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen로건
COL LAD (44) @PIT (126) Kyle Freeland Austin Gomber (x2), Bradley Blalock (x2), Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela
DET HOU (92) KCR (118) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Casey Mize Charlie Morton, Chris Paddack
HOU @DET (102) @BAL (137) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Cristian Javier Spencer Arrighetti (x2), Lance McCullers Jr. (?)
KCR TEX (144) @DET (102) Michael Wacha (x2), Noah Cameron Seth Lugo (x2) Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert
LAA CIN (100) CHC (82) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Victor Mederos (x2), Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Anderson
LAD @COL (39) @SDP (94) Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (@SDP) Yamamoto (@COL) Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw Emmet Sheehan
MIA STL (143) TOR (44) Eury Pérez (vSTL) Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Pérez (vTOR) Cal Quantrill, Janson Junk
MIL @CHC (147) SFG (117) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff (x2), Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana DL Hall
MIN ATH (61) @CHW (128) Joe Ryan (x2) Zebby Matthews Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson José Ureña
NYM @WSN (140) @ATL (96) David Peterson (@WSN), Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea Clay Holmes, Peterson (@ATL) Nolan McLean
NYY @TBR (95) BOS (72) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (x2), Luis Gil, Will Warren Cam Schlittler
PHI SEA (75) WSN (100) Ranger Suárez (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola
PIT TOR (50) COL (119) Paul Skenes (x2) Mike Burrows Mitch Keller Braxton Ashcraft, Andrew Heaney
SDP SFG (133) LAD (82) Nick Pivetta (x2), Dylan Cease Nestor Cortes (vSFG), Yu Darvish Cortes (vLAD) Randy Vásquez
SEA @PHI (70) ATH (82) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby Bryce Miller (?)
SFG @SDP (94) @MIL (73) Logan Webb Landen Roupp Robbie Ray (x2), Justin Verlander Kai-Wei Teng (x2)
STL @MIA (99) @TBR (95) Sonny Gray Michael McGreevy Matthew Liberatore (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR NYY (62) STL (125) Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Adrian Houser, Ryan Pepiot Joe Boyle
TEX @KCR (114) CLE (141) Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2) Patrick Corbin
TOR @PIT (126) @MIA (99) Kevin Gausman Max Scherzer Chris Bassitt, Shane Bieber (?), Eric Lauer 라우어, José Berríos
WSN NYM (84) @PHI (70) Brad Lord, MacKenzie Gore Cade Cavalli Jake Irvin (x2), Mitchell Parker

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 11–17

Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 11–17
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TEX (132) @COL (49) Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson (@TEX) Anthony DeSclafani (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Nelson (@COL)
ATH TBR (122) LAA (82) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Jacob Lopez, J.T. Ginn, Luis Severino Jack Perkins
ATL @NYM (140) @CLE (130) Spencer Strider (x2) Joey Wentz Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde 페디
BAL SEA (104) @HOU (111) Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich Brandon Young
BOS @HOU (111) MIA (58) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello
CHC @TOR (41) PIT (146) Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga Cade Horton (vPIT) Horton (@TOR), Jameson Taillon (?) Colin Rea
CHW DET (69) @KCR (122) Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke, Davis Martin Mike Vasil (F)
CIN PHI (50) MIL (12) Andrew Abbott (x2), Chase Burns Brady Singer, Hunter Greene (?) Zack Littell
CLE MIA (83) ATL (112) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo Logan Allen로건 (x2), Slade Cecconi
COL @STL (146) ARI (76) Kyle Freeland (@STL) Anthony Molina (x2), Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon
DET @CHW (94) @MIN (99) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton, Casey Mize Chris Paddack (x2)
HOU BOS (75) BAL (106) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier (?), Spencer Arrighetti Colton Gordon
KCR WSN (135) CHW (102) Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2), Michael Lorenzen
LAA LAD (66) @ATH (23) José Soriano (x2), Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson, Kyle Henderson, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @LAA (113) SDP (90) Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @CLE (130) @BOS (47) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera Janson Junk (@CLE), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Junk (@BOS)
MIL PIT (122) @CIN (95) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana
MIN @NYY (85) DET (86) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews (x2) Bailey Ober, José Ureña, Simeon Woods Richardson (?) Pierson Ohl
NYM ATL (115) SEA (102) Clay Holmes (vATL), David Peterson, Sean Manaea Kodai Senga, Holmes (vSEA) Frankie Montas
NYY MIN (101) @STL (146) Max Fried Will Warren (x2), Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil Cam Schlittler
PHI @CIN (95) @WSN (153) Ranger Suárez (x2), Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola (?)
PIT @MIL (84) @CHC (122) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows Andrew Heaney (x2)
SDP @SFG (162) @LAD (59) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish (@SFG), Michael King, Dylan Cease Nestor Cortes, Darvish (@LAD)
SEA @BAL (66) @NYM (140) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo Logan Evans
SFG SDP (122) TBR (180) Logan Webb (x2) Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander Carson Whisenhunt Kai-Wei Teng
STL COL (142) NYY (108) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas (x2), Andre Pallante
TBR @ATH (23) @SFG (162) Ryan Pepiot (@SFG) Pepiot (@ATH), Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle, Adrian Houser
TEX ARI (98) @TOR (41) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR CHC (84) TEX (126) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer 라우어 José Berríos (x2), Max Scherzer
WSN @KCR (122) PHI (86) Cade Cavalli (@KCR), Brad Lord, MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 4–10

Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 4–10
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SDP (106) COL (125) Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2), Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez Anthony DeSclafani (?)
ATH @WSN (133) @BAL (64) J.T. Ginn Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, Luis Severino Osvaldo Bido
ATL MIL (69) MIA (93) Spencer Strider Joey Wentz (x2) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep (?)
BAL @PHI (44) ATH (72) Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Brandon Young (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich (?)
BOS KCR (86) @SDP (92) Garrett Crochet (x2) Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler
CHC CIN (113) @STL (133) Matthew Boyd Michael Soroka (x2), Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton Colin Rea
CHW @SEA (174) CLE (82) Davis Martin (x2), Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke Jonathan Cannon
CIN @CHC (89) @PIT (137) Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns, Nick Lodolo (@PIT) Lodolo (@CHC), Brady Singer Zack Littell (@PIT) Littell (@CHC)
CLE @NYM (133) @CHW (80) Slade Cecconi (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Joey Cantillo
COL TOR (37) @ARI (114) Tanner Gordon (x2), Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock
DET MIN (112) LAA (101) Casey Mize (vMIN), Tarik Skubal Chris Paddack, Jack Flaherty, Mize (vLAA) Charlie Morton
HOU @MIA (127) @NYY (75) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Spencer Arrighetti (?) Jason Alexander (x2), Colton Gordon
KCR @BOS (60) @MIN (79) Seth Lugo Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2) Ryan Bergert (?)
LAA TBR (109) @DET (121) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD STL (126) TOR (59) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell Clayton Kershaw
MIA HOU (88) @ATL (88) Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara (x2), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill (x2), Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk
MIL @ATL (88) NYM (113) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester (x2) Jose Quintana
MIN @DET (121) KCR (100) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM CLE (111) @MIL (105) Sean Manaea (x2), David Peterson Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga Frankie Montas
NYY @TEX (131) HOU (82) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil
PHI BAL (89) @TEX (131) Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo (@TEX) Luzardo (vBAL) Taijuan Walker
PIT SFG (111) CIN (98) Paul Skenes Mike Burrows (x2), Mitch Keller Carmen Mlodzinski (x2), Andrew Heaney
SDP @ARI (114) BOS (96) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease JP Sears (x2) Randy Vásquez
SEA CHW (113) TBR (150) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @PIT (137) WSN (150) Logan Webb Justin Verlander (x2), Robbie Ray Carson Whisenhunt Spencer Bivens (?)
STL @LAD (59) CHC (70) Sonny Gray (x2) Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante
TBR @LAA (81) @SEA (174) Adrian Houser (x2), Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle
TEX NYY (69) PHI (71) Jacob deGrom Nathan Eovaldi, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @COL (52) @LAD (59) Kevin Gausman Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt Eric Lauer 라우어 (x2), José Berríos
WSN ATH (59) @SFG (145) MacKenzie Gore (@SFG) Gore (vATH), Brad Lord Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Cade Cavalli (?)