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Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 26–June 1

Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 26–June 1
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI PIT (160) WSN (121) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson (x2)
ATH @HOU (66) @TOR (72) Luis Severino JP Sears (x2), Jeffrey Springs, Gunnar Hoglund Jacob Lopez
ATL @PHI (41) BOS (79) Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider (vBOS) Strider (@PHI) AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes
BAL STL (95) CHW (163) Zach Eflin Tomoyuki Sugano (vCHW) Sugano (vSTL), Cade Povich, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer
BOS @MIL (142) @ATL (81) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito, Hunter Dobbins, Walker Buehler Brayan Bello
CHC COL (158) CIN (100) Matthew Boyd Cade Horton, Colin Rea Jameson Taillon (x2), Ben Brown
CHW @NYM (102) @BAL (114) Shane Smith Adrian Houser (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin Sean Burke
CIN @KCR (132) @CHC (83) Hunter Greene Nick Martinez (x2), Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo
CLE LAD (52) LAA (82) Gavin Williams (x2) Tanner Bibee, Luis L. Ortiz, Logan Allen로건 Slade Cecconi
COL @CHC (83) @NYM (102) Kyle Freeland Carson Palmquist (x2), Germán Márquez, Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela
DET SFG (132) @KCR (132) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize Keider Montero (x2)
HOU ATH (93) TBR (135) Hunter Brown (x2), Frambe Valdez Lance McCullers Jr., Ryan Gusto Colton Gordon
KCR CIN (80) DET (59) Kris Bubic Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen (x2), Noah Cameron Daniel Lynch IV
LAA NYY (12) @CLE (153) José Soriano Yusei Kikuchi Jack Kochanowicz (x2), Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CLE (153) NYY (26) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (x2), Dustin May Clayton Kershaw Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack
MIA @SDP (100) SFG (111) Ryan Weathers (x2) Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill
MIL BOS (70) @PHI (41) Freddy Peralta Chad Patrick, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana (?), Logan Henderson Quinn Priester
MIN @TBR (108) @SEA (154) Joe Ryan (x2), Pablo López, Bailey Ober Chris Paddack Zebby Matthews
NYM CHW (160) COL (156) Clay Holmes (x2), David Peterson, Kodai Senga Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning
NYY @LAA (72) @LAD (28) Carlos Rodón, Max Fried Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren Ryan Yarbrough (x2)
PHI ATL (79) MIL (116) Ranger Suárez (x2), Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola
PIT @ARI (49) @SDP (100) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney (@SDP) Heaney (@ARI), Bailey Falter Mike Burrows
SDP MIA (108) PIT (160) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Randy Vásquez, Yu Darvish (?), Stephen Kolek
SEA WSN (133) MIN (112) George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Bryce Miller (?) Logan Evans, Emerson Hancock
SFG @DET (80) @MIA (96) Logan Webb, Robbie Ray Landen Roupp Hayden Birdsong (x2), Kyle Harrison
STL @BAL (114) @TEX (127) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디 (x2) Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR MIN (79) @HOU (66) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell (x2), Taj Bradley (x2)
TEX TOR (81) STL (72) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @TEX (127) ATH (93) Kevin Gausman (x2) Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어 (?), José Berríos
WSN @SEA (154) @ARI (49) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (@SEA) Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Parker (@ARI)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 19–25

Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 19–25
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @LAD (33) @STL (89) Zac Gallen Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brandon Pfaadt (@STL) Pfaadt (@LAD) Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH LAA (127) PHI (66) JP Sears, Luis Severino Gunnar Hoglund, Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido (x2), J.T. Ginn (?)
ATL @WSN (116) SDP (86) Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach Spencer Strider (?), AJ Smith-Shawver Grant Holmes
BAL @MIL (164) @BOS (72) Zach Eflin Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Cade Povich Kyle Gibson
BOS NYM (40) BAL (130) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler (vBAL) Hunter Dobbins (x2), Buehler (vNYM), Brayan Bello
CHC @MIA (134) @CIN (117) Ben Brown (x2), Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton
CHW SEA (72) TEX (99) Shane Smith Davis Martin (x2) Bryse Wilson, Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon
CIN @PIT (169) CHC (46) Nick Lodolo (@PIT), Nick Martinez, Brady Singer Andrew Abbott, Lodolo (vCHC) Hunter Greene (?)
CLE @MIN (113) @DET (71) Gavin Williams (x2) Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz Kolby Allard
COL PHI (56) NYY (10) Kyle Freeland (x2), Antonio Senzatela (x2), Carson Palmquist (?), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander
DET @STL (89) CLE (114) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize (?) Keider Montero
HOU @TBR (140) SEA (96) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto Colton Gordon (x2)
KCR @SFG (130) @MIN (113) Kris Bubic (x2), Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen
LAA @ATH (71) MIA (104) José Soriano (vMIA) Soriano (@ATH), Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jack Kochanowicz
LAD ARI (52) @NYM (79) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin Landon Knack (x2)
MIA CHC (78) @LAA (118) Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill (x2)
MIL BAL (135) @PIT (169) Freddy Peralta Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick Quinn Priester (x2), Aaron Civale (?), Tobias Myers
MIN CLE (96) KCR (116) Bailey Ober (x2), Joe Ryan, Pablo López Chris Paddack Zebby Matthews
NYM @BOS (72) LAD (74) Kodai Senga (x2), Clay Holmes Tylor Megill, David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY TEX (105) @COL (100) Will Warren (vTEX), Carlos Rodón, Max Fried Clarke Schmidt, Warren (@COL) Ryan Yarbrough
PHI @COL (100) @ATH (71) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez Aaron Nola (x2)
PIT CIN (118) MIL (145) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller (vMIL) Keller (vCIN), Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP @TOR (84) @ATL (123) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta, Michael King Stephen Kolek Randy Vásquez
SEA @CHW (150) @HOU (77) Bryan Woo (x2), Luis Castillo (@CHW) George Kirby (?), Castillo (@HOU) Emerson Hancock Logan Evans
SFG KCR (143) @WSN (116) Logan Webb Robbie Ray (x2), Jordan Hicks Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander
STL DET (74) ARI (82) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR HOU (94) TOR (82) Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot (x2), Taj Bradley, Shane Baz Zack Littell
TEX @NYY (32) @CHW (150) Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter Jacob deGrom Patrick Corbin (@CHW) Corbin (@NYY)
TOR SDP (91) @TBR (140) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt (@TBR) Bassitt (vSDP), José Berríos Bowden Francis José Ureña
WSN ATL (157) SFG (111) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka Trevor Williams

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: May 13, 2025

Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Right now, there’s an absolute dearth of starting pitching available on the waiver wire. I’ve scraped the bottom of the barrel for these nine under-rostered pitchers — four starters and five relievers.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 30 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Colin Rea CHC 31 3.44 13.5% 95 4.51 40.4%
Tyler Anderson LAA 35.1 3.82 13.3% 96 4.99 20.8%
Chad Patrick MIL 31.1 3.05 12.4% 103 4.83 11.6%
Chris Paddack MIN 32.1 4.04 14.7% 95 4.77 7.6%

I covered Colin Rea the last time I ran this column and I still think he’s one of the more interesting starting pitchers out there. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball all make him a pretty interesting pick up.

Tyler Anderson isn’t flashy or fancy but he’s a veteran starter with one elite pitch, his changeup. When that pitch is working for him, he can have stretches like this where he’s able to limit hard contact and generate just enough swings and misses. He probably won’t reach the ceiling of his breakout season with the Dodgers back in 2022, but he’s a solid enough starter that can be counted on in the right matchups.

Chad Patrick has filled in capably for the Brewers as they work through all their early season injuries. He’s survived by inducing a ton of weak contact in the air, which has served him well so far, but it’s also the same reasony why his xFIP is 4.42, more than a run higher than his ERA. Still, over his last three starts, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a very good 4.67 and he’s improved as he’s adjusted to pitching in the big leagues for the first time.

Chris Paddack started off the season with two absolute stinkers, allowing 13 runs in 7.1 innings with more walks than strikeouts. In his six starts since then, he’s allowed just 10 runs in 32.1 innings with a 2.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His last start against the Giants was his best of the year; he pitched into the eighth inning, allowing just three hits while striking out six. He’s always been a bit home run prone and he’s been pretty lucky in that regard during this stretch. Still, it seems like he has his signature fastball-changeup combo working for him right now.

Under-rostered Relievers, Last 30 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Brendon Little TOR 11.2 2.09 22.0% 1.40 116 7.69 36.7%
Mason Fluharty TOR 13.1 2.29 20.5% 0.95 117 8.65 0.9%
Danny Coulombe MIN 11.1 0.47 38.5% 1.34 104 9.96 28.4%
Nick Mears MIL 13 1.89 20.5% 2.13 98 9.17 21.4%
Ryan Borucki PIT 10.2 1.90 20.0% 0.93 115 8.83 8.6%

The Blue Jays have quietly put together one of the best relief corps in baseball and that’s largely thanks to breakout seasons from guys like Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty. Among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings this season, Little leads all of baseball in swinging strike rate. His sinker has been devastating thanks to some mechanical deception and a ton of drop on the pitch. Fluharty might be even more interesting. As a lefty, he’s yet to allow a hit to a right-handed batter this year. Like Little, he’s got some mechanical deception aiding him and a hard cutter that has given right-handed batters fits when it’s located on the inside half of the plate. Little is a little higher on Toronto’s bullpen pecking order, but Fluharty should be seeing some high leverage work soon too.

Danny Coulombe hasn’t allowed a run in almost a full calendar year. Of course, a lot of his 2024 season was spent on the IL, but he’s now run his scoreless streak to 27 games and 26.1 innings. It took a while for the Twins to start giving him high leverage work but he’s finally working the seventh and eighth innings regularly.

The Brewers bullpen has been a bit of a work-in-progress this year after they moved on from their closer Devin Williams in the offseason. Trevor Megill has a tight hold on the ninth inning, but Nick Mears has worked his way into the high leverage mix in the seventh and eighth innings.

Ryan Borucki isn’t seeing that much high leverage work yet, but the guys in front of him in the Pirates bullpen aren’t all that impressive. The biggest difference for him this year are a new splitter and sweeper that are both returning above average whiff rates. Those two pitches have pushed his Stuff+ from merely average up to 109 on the season.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 12–18

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 12–18
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SFG (134) COL (163) Brandon Pfaadt, Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH @LAD (27) @SFG (134) Luis Severino JP Sears, Jeffrey Springs (@SFG) Gunnar Hoglund Springs (@LAD), Osvaldo Bido
ATL WSN (107) @BOS (46) Spencer Schwellenbach (x2), Chris Sale AJ Smith-Shawver Grant Holmes (x2), Bryce Elder
BAL MIN (115) WSN (123) Zach Eflin Cade Povich (x2), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano Kyle Gibson
BOS @DET (64) ATL (93) Garrett Crochet Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Walker Buehler (?), Lucas Giolito
CHC MIA (132) CHW (140) Colin Rea (x2), Matthew Boyd Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton
CHW @CIN (92) @CHC (106) Shane Smith Jonathan Cannon (x2), Davis Martin, Bryse Wilson, Sean Burke
CIN CHW (92) CLE (49) Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott Chase Petty (?)
CLE MIL (122) @CIN (92) Ben Lively 라이블리 (vMIL), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Luis L. Ortiz, Lively (@CIN)
COL @TEX (129) @ARI (81) Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner Chase Dollander (x2), Antonio Senzatela, Germán Márquez
DET BOS (79) @TOR (117) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize Jackson Jobe (x2)
HOU KCR (91) @TEX (129) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Hayden Wesneski (x2), Ryan Gusto, Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco
KCR @HOU (102) STL (86) Michael Wacha (x2), Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen
LAA @SDP (110) @LAD (27) Yusei Kikuchi (@SDP), José Soriano Kikuchi (@LAD) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson
LAD ATH (59) LAA (123) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Tony Gonsolin (x2), Dustin May, Ben Casparius (F) Roki Sasaki
MIA @CHC (106) TBR (144) Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Valente Bellozo, Ryan Weathers (?)
MIL @CLE (137) MIN (90) Freddy Peralta Jose Quintana Chad Patrick (x2), Quinn Priester, Tobias Myers
MIN @BAL (128) @MIL (137) Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Chris Paddack
NYM PIT (168) @NYY (32) David Peterson (vPIT), Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Tylor Megill, Peterson (@NYY) Griffin Canning
NYY @SEA (95) NYM (32) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt Ryan Yarbrough
PHI STL (81) PIT (146) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler
PIT @NYM (78) @PHI (43) Paul Skenes (x2) Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP LAA (138) SEA (50) Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta Randy Vásquez Stephen Kolek
SEA NYY (68) @SDP (110) Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller Luis Castillo Emerson Hancock (x2) Logan Evans
SFG ARI (110) ATH (91) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Landen Roupp Justin Verlander (x2)
STL @PHI (43) @KCR (96) Matthew Liberatore (x2), Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR @TOR (117) @MIA (124) Shane Baz (x2), Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX COL (148) HOU (97) Tyler Mahle (x2), Jack Leiter (vCOL), Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Leiter (vHOU) Patrick Corbin
TOR TBR (151) DET (53) Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (vTBR) Bowden Francis, Berríos (vDET) José Ureña
WSN @ATL (90) @BAL (128) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Michael Soroka (x2), Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 5–11

Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 5–11
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI NYM (71) LAD (71) Corbin Burnes (x2), Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Merrill Kelly 켈리, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH SEA (14) NYY (28) Luis Severino (x2) Jeffrey Springs, Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears Gunnar Hoglund (?)
ATL CIN (46) @PIT (123) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach AJ Smith-Shawver (@PIT) Smith-Shawver (vCIN), Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @MIN (88) @LAA (137) Cade Povich (x2), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Kyle Gibson, Brandon Young (?)
BOS TEX (116) @KCR (143) Garrett Crochet Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito (@KCR) Giolito (vTEX), Tanner Houck
CHC SFG (144) @NYM (88) Matthew Boyd (x2), Colin Rea, Shota Imanaga Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon
CHW @KCR (143) MIA (90) Shane Smith (x2) Davis Martin Sean Burke (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Bryse Wilson
CIN @ATL (57) @HOU (116) Hunter Greene Brady Singer (x2), Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Andrew Abbott (x2)
CLE @WSN (99) PHI (112) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Ben Lively 라이블리, Logan Allen로건
COL DET (61) SDP (96) Chase Dollander (x2), Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner, Germán Márquez
DET @COL (108) TEX (150) Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Tarik Skubal, Jackson Jobe (vTEX) Jobe (@COL), Casey Mize
HOU @MIL (115) CIN (50) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco (x2), Hayden Wesneski Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR CHW (131) BOS (51) Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo (vCHW), Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Lugo (vBOS) Michael Lorenzen
LAA TOR (141) BAL (120) Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Soriano Tyler Anderson (x2) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @MIA (103) @ARI (90) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May Ben Casparius (?), Roki Sasaki Landon Knack (?)
MIA LAD (58) @CHW (137) Max Meyer Sandy Alcantara (@CHW) Alcantara (vLAD), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Valente Bellozo (?)
MIL @HOU (116) @TBR (117) Freddy Peralta Jose Quintana Brandon Woodruff (?), Quinn Priester Tobias Myers (x2)
MIN BAL (146) SFG (127) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack
NYM @ARI (90) CHC (67) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes David Peterson (@ARI), Tylor Megill Griffin Canning, Peterson (vCHC)
NYY SDP (115) @ATH (75) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (vSDP) Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren, Rodón (@ATH) Carlos Carrasco
PHI @TBR (117) @CLE (159) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola Ranger Suárez
PIT @STL (109) ATL (92) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski (x2)
SDP @NYY (33) @COL (108) Michael King (@NYY), Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta, King (@COL) Stephen Kolek (?), Randy Vásquez
SEA @ATH (75) TOR (188) Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller (vTOR) Miller (@ATH) Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans
SFG @CHC (95) @MIN (88) Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Jordan Hicks Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray
STL PIT (127) @WSN (99) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Steven Matz, Erick Fedde 페디, Andre Pallante
TBR PHI (86) MIL (72) Drew Rasmussen (x2), Shane Baz Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @BOS (46) @DET (98) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @LAA (137) @SEA (99) Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Bowden Francis Eric Lauer 라우어 (?)
WSN CLE (109) STL (118) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, Trevor Williams Michael Soroka (?)

A few general schedule notes:

  • Now that we’ve reached May, I’m starting to use in-season data to calculate opponent strength.
  • The Athletics have a beast of a schedule next week; not only are they playing two of the hottest offenses in baseball, they’re playing in their tiny bandbox in Sacramento. Those games should be extremely high scoring affairs. The Padres also have to face the Yankees next week, in New York to boot, but San Diego then gets to travel to Colorado. The Diamondbacks just barely avoid the double red tags, but I’d still avoid their starters against the Mets and Dodgers.
  • No team has a double green week, but the Twins get close with series against the struggling Orioles and the Giants at home.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: April 29, 2025

Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Hopefully, these six under-rostered pitchers — three starters and three relievers — can help.

Under-rostered Starters
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Ryan Gusto HOU 22.2 2.70 21.1% 106 5.36 29.4%
Jose Quintana MIL 23.2 3.35 7.5% 82 5.00 19.6%
Colin Rea CHC 18.2 1.50 21.1% 98 6.84 13.2%

Chad covered Ryan Gusto in his Hot Right Now column yesterday. I mostly agree with his assessment:

“So yes, he has looked good so far. But with only 22.2 IP so far this year, I am more inclined to bet on his track record than his early performance with Houston. Double his walks, double his HR, and how are you feeling? There’s nothing wrong with riding the hot streak. That could both net you some short-term gains and give you time to see if that control and HR suppression are legit. But there are other SP out there I am more interested in right now.”

One thing I’d like to add is that Stuff+ really likes Gusto. All three of his fastballs are above league average by that metric and so is his slider. Stuff+ isn’t as enamored with his changeup but that pitch is returning a 37.5% whiff rate which is above average for the pitch type. Sure, the minor league track record isn’t there, but it’s possible Gusto has taken a pretty significant step forward in his development.

I do need to advise some caution because of the contact quality issues Chad mentioned and also because the Astros will likely activate Lance McCullers Jr. from the IL within a few weeks and possibly Spencer Arrighetti a few more weeks after that. It’s very likely Gusto will be relegated to the bullpen once Houston’s starting rotation gets a little more healthy. So, yes, ride the hot hand while you can, but don’t expect Gusto to be a long-term solution for your pitching staff.

I recommended Jose Quintana in my last Ottoneu Drip and I’m honestly shocked he hasn’t been rostered more. All he’s done since that write up is make three fantastic starts, allowing just three runs total. His strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t great and it seems like he’s relying on a lot of guile to get by, but the results speak for themselves.

The injury to Justin Steele forced the Cubs to add Colin Rea to their starting rotation a few weeks ago. Rea muddled through the last two years as an innings eating member of the Brewers rotation, but he has made three solid starts for the Cubs against some really impressive opponents. Against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies, he’s allowed just two runs in 13.1 innings while striking out 17. That’s enough for me to take notice.

The biggest difference is a four-seam that he’s throwing more than half the time at the expense of his sinker. His repertoire is still deep — six pitches strong — but he’s really emphasized the heater. He’s throwing it about a tick harder than last year with a little more rise and a little more cut and it’s returning a 25% whiff rate and a .334 xwOBA, both above average marks for a four-seamer. He’s also dropped his arm angle by about five degrees which has had a positive effect on the horizontal movement of all of his pitches. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball makes him a pretty interesting pick up, though I might wait to see how he does in a few more starts before rushing out to add him.

Under-rostered Relievers
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Will Vest DET 12 2.80 23.3% 0.83 103 8.64 53.2%
Reed Garrett NYM 11.2 2.02 17.4% 1.74 112 9.83 51.1%
Shelby Miller ARI 11.2 1.94 23.3% 1.93 97 9.29 14.4%

Chad also covered Will Vest in his article yesterday and I don’t really have much more to add. If you’re speculating on saves in Detroit’s bullpen, Vest is as good an investment as any other high leverage option in that ‘pen.

Reed Garrett had a mini-little breakout last summer before burning out in August. He’s still making high-leverage appearances for the Mets this year and he’s been pretty good. The strikeout rate isn’t as lofty as it was last year, but his walk rate is down and he’s only allowed a single unearned run.

Shelby Miller was finally healthy last year but his stint in Detroit’s bullpen of death could have gone better. He latched on with the Diamondbacks this year and is throwing a little harder and added a sweeper to his repertoire. He, too, has only allowed a single unearned run in 11 appearances for the Snakes and he’s already beginning to work some high leverage opportunities for them.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 28–May 4

Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 28–May 4
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @NYM (72) @PHI (81) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Merrill Kelly 켈리
ATH @TEX (98) @MIA (106) J.T. Ginn (x2), Luis Severino, Osvaldo Bido JP Sears (x2), Jeffrey Springs
ATL @COL (121) LAD (78) Spencer Schwellenbach Chris Sale, Grant Holmes AJ Smith-Shawver (x2), Bryce Elder
BAL NYY (81) KCR (147) Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Cade Povich, Kyle Gibson (?), Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer
BOS @TOR (122) MIN (95) Garrett Crochet (x2) Walker Buehler Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito (?), Brayan Bello
CHC @PIT (130) @MIL (115) Shota Imanaga (x2), Matthew Boyd Colin Rea Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon
CHW MIL (105) HOU (62) Shane Smith Bryse Wilson (x2), Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin
CIN STL (94) WSN (112) Brady Singer (x2), Hunter Greene Nick Martinez (x2), Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo
CLE MIN (121) @TOR (122) Tanner Bibee (x2), Gavin Williams Ben Lively 라이블리 Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Logan Allen로건
COL ATL (16) @SFG (145) Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner Tanner Gordon (?), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander, Antonio Senzatela
DET @HOU (86) @LAA (107) Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson (x2), Tarik Skubal Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe
HOU DET (156) @CHW (146) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto, Hayden Wesneski Lance McCullers Jr. (?)
KCR @TBR (96) @BAL (97) Cole Ragans (?), Kris Bubic Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen
LAA @SEA (120) DET (128) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Jack Kochanowicz (x2), Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD MIA (104) @ATL (46) Dustin May, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Tony Gonsolin (?), Roki Sasaki
MIA @LAD (72) ATH (83) Max Meyer Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera (x2), Cal Quantrill, Connor Gillispie
MIL @CHW (146) CHC (56) Freddy Peralta (@CHW) Tobias Myers, Peralta (vCHC) Chad Patrick, Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana
MIN @CLE (128) @BOS (63) Bailey Ober (@CLE), Pablo López, Joe Ryan Ober (@BOS) Chris Paddack (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM ARI (86) @STL (147) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill Griffin Canning (x2), David Peterson (x2)
NYY @BAL (97) TBR (84) Max Fried Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt Will Warren (x2), Carlos Carrasco
PHI WSN (136) ARI (60) Cristopher Sánchez (?), Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez (?)
PIT CHC (66) SDP (107) Paul Skenes Andrew Heaney (x2), Mitch Keller Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP SFG (124) @PIT (130) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Kyle Hart 하트, Randy Vásquez
SEA LAA (154) @TEX (98) Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller Emerson Hancock
SFG @SDP (113) COL (179) Logan Webb (x2), Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks
STL @CIN (30) NYM (76) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Steven Matz (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디
TBR KCR (128) @NYY (50) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Taj Bradley (vKCR), Ryan Pepiot Bradley (@NYY) Zack Littell
TEX ATH (80) SEA (89) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter (?) Kumar Rocker (x2)
TOR BOS (81) CLE (120) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis (x2), José Berríos Paxton Schultz (?)
WSN @PHI (81) @CIN (30) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • They’re not marked in red above, but I’d be weary of starting anyone from the Braves or Diamondbacks next week. Atlanta travels to Colorado which makes Chris Sale’s scheduled start a big risk and then the team returns home to host the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Arizona heads out on an East Coast road trip through New York and Philadelphia and neither Corbin Burnes or Zac Gallen have been all that impressive to start this season.
  • The Astros look to be the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week, at home against the Tigers and on the road against the White Sox. Ronel Blanco could be lined up for a double-start week but that could be in flux if Houston decides to activate Lance McCullers Jr. next weekend.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 21–27

Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 21–27
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TBR (85) ATL (44) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (vTBR), Eduardo Rodriguez Merrill Kelly 켈리, Pfaadt (vATL)
ATH TEX (93) CHW (154) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido (x2) JP Sears, J.T. Ginn
ATL STL (95) @ARI (59) Spencer Schwellenbach (x2), Spencer Strider, Chris Sale Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @WSN (128) @DET (142) Cade Povich, Charlie Morton Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Brandon Young (?)
BOS SEA (96) @CLE (127) Walker Buehler (vCHW), Garrett Crochet Buehler (@CLE) Brayan Bello (?), Tanner Houck Sean Newcomb
CHC LAD (71) PHI (107) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon Colin Rea
CHW @MIN (115) @ATH (87) Shane Smith Martín Pérez Jonathan Cannon (x2), Davis Martin (x2), Sean Burke
CIN @MIA (115) @COL (104) Brady Singer Nick Martinez (@MIA) Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo, Martinez (@COL)
CLE NYY (63) BOS (82) Gavin Williams (x2), Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz, Ben Lively 라이블리, Logan Allen로건
COL @KCR (114) CIN (82) Ryan Feltner (x2), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela
DET SDP (102) BAL (116) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Reese Olson, Casey Mize Jackson Jobe Keider Montero
HOU TOR (103) @KCR (114) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto, Lance McCullers Jr. (?), Hayden Wesneski
KCR COL (129) HOU (93) Kris Bubic (x2), Cole Ragans Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha
LAA PIT (121) @MIN (115) José Soriano (x2) Yusei Kikuchi Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CHC (92) PIT (136) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May, Roki Sasaki
MIA CIN (107) @SEA (130) Max Meyer (x2), Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Connor Gillispie
MIL @SFG (122) @STL (115) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester (x2), Jose Quintana (x2) Tobias Myers (?) Chad Patrick
MIN CHW (158) LAA (67) Bailey Ober, David Festa Joe Ryan, Pablo López (?) Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM PHI (105) @WSN (128) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (x2), David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY @CLE (127) TOR (87) Max Fried Clarke Schmidt (x2), Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Carlos Carrasco
PHI @NYM (84) @CHC (92) Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola (x2) Ranger Suárez (?)
PIT @LAA (42) @LAD (48) Paul Skenes Andrew Heaney, Mitch Keller Bailey Falter (x2) Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP @DET (142) TBR (84) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Randy Vásquez (x2), Kyle Hart 하트
SEA @BOS (58) MIA (141) Bryce Miller (x2), Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Emerson Hancock
SFG MIL (130) TEX (119) Logan Webb Robbie Ray (x2), Landen Roupp Jordan Hicks (x2), Justin Verlander
STL @ATL (36) MIL (124) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Erick Fedde 페디, Steven Matz, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR @ARI (59) @SDP (90) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell (x2)
TEX @ATH (87) @SFG (122) Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter (?) Kumar Rocker Patrick Corbin
TOR @HOU (100) @NYY (40) Chris Bassitt Kevin Gausman (x2) Bowden Francis, José Berríos Easton Lucas
WSN BAL (103) NYM (73) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin Michael Soroka (?)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Dodgers and Cubs gain an extra day off next week to offset their early start in Japan in March. That means they’ll only play five games, though the Dodgers will need to call up a spot starter anyway after Bobby Miller was optioned after his own spot start on Thursday. Roster Resource has Matt Sauer listed as the starter on Wednesday but it’s possible Los Angeles will activate Tony Gonsolin for that start instead.
  • After spending most of the month rehabbing, we’ll probably see the season debuts of Ranger Suárez, Brayan Bello, Tobias Myers, and Lance McCullers Jr. (!) next week and Jack Leiter and Pablo López are on track to be activated from their short stints on the IL too.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: April 16, 2025

Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The wave of early season injuries has hit hard and your fantasy baseball team is more than likely feeling the effects. One of my Ottoneu teams has eight pitchers currently on the IL and I dropped two other injured pitchers in my desperate search for reinforcements. Hopefully, these eight under-rostered pitchers — four starters and four relievers — can help you in your own search for pitching help.

Under-rostered Starters
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Tyler Mahle TEX 13.2 2.81 9.4% 90 6.64 48.9%
Andrew Heaney PIT 18 2.75 20.0% 100 5.98 35.5%
Matthew Liberatore STL 18.1 1.94 23.9% 105 6.10 22.3%
Jose Quintana MIL 7 2.46 9.1% 83 6.49 9.5%

Tyler Mahle is finally healthy after working back from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and a shoulder injury last year. At his peak, he was a strikeout generating machine, producing a 27.1% strikeout rate across three seasons from 2020–22. He hasn’t reached that same level of effectiveness yet, but his first four starts this year have been promising. So far, he’s allowed just two earned runs and eight hits across 19.2 innings, and it seems like the command issues that limited him to just 1.2 innings in his first start are behind him. The velocity on his four-seamer hasn’t returned all the way — and it might not — but he’s getting more induced vertical movement on the pitch than ever before. Opposing batters aren’t swinging and missing against his secondary pitches yet, but the whiff rate on his heater 36.2% of the time! He’s gotten a bit lucky in the batted ball department so I’m sure some regression is coming, but as long as he’s healthy, he looks like he can be a useful starter in all fantasy formats.

Andrew Heaney has been a frequent recommendation in this column over the last few years. He’s the type of pitcher who has hot streaks where he looks incredibly impressive for a time but he isn’t consistent enough to deserve a high roster rate. He’s started off this year on a heater, allowing six runs across 18 innings in his first three starts with a phenomenal 20.0% K-BB%. He’s adjusted his repertoire to feature three different variations of his sweeping breaking ball — Statcast classifies them as a curveball, slider, and slow curve but they’re all generally the same shape with different velocities. He’s also added a sinker to his mix which gives him another weapon to keep batters off his four-seamer. These adjustments to his arsenal have my attention and I’m interested to see if they can help him reduce the amount of hard contact he allows off his heater.

After struggling in the starting rotation for a season and half, Matthew Liberatore found some success pitching out of the bullpen late last year. The Cardinals moved him back to the rotation to start this year and his first three starts of the season have been fantastic from a peripherals standpoint even if the actual run prevention hasn’t been up to snuff. He’s struck out 18 and walked just one in 18.1 innings and he’s managed to work around the platoon issues that have been a problem for him throughout his career. You can chalk that up to a greater emphasis on his changeup and cutter and better command of his entire repertoire.

After signing late in the spring, the Brewers called up Jose Quintana to make his season debut last week and he held the potent Diamondbacks offense scoreless over seven innings. At 36 years old, his best years are probably behind him, but he’s been a useful innings eater for a few years now. One thing to note: he threw his sinker more than half the time in his first start and more than half the balls in play off him were on the ground. Something to keep an eye on if you’re looking to add him.

Under-rostered Relievers
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Randy Rodríguez SFG 8.1 -0.09 41.9% 1.73 117 9.67 47.7%
Bryan King HOU 7.1 0.71 39.3% 0.97 98 10.75 26.3%
Phil Maton STL 8.1 0.99 33.3% 1.21 101 10.31 16.5%
Gabe Speier SEA 6.2 0.63 36.4% 1.32 123 10.43 4.9%

Many teams are still sorting through the pecking order in their bullpens as they figure out which guys they can trust with high leverage opportunities. The four relievers listed above aren’t necessarily pitching in the ninth or eighth inning, but their peripherals are so good that they could find themselves in those spots sooner rather than later.

Randy Rodríguez has struck out more than 40% of the batters he’s faced so far this season and the Giants are starting to give him more and more high leverage work as a result. Tyler Rogers has been their long-time setup man but Rodríguez’s high-octane stuff fits the role a lot better.

After the Astros traded away Ryan Pressley this offseason, a spot towards the back of their bullpen opened up. Bryan King has quickly filled that opening by also striking out more than 40% of the batters he’s faced. As a left-hander, he’ll likely get high-leverage work when facing pockets of left-handed batters in the late innings, giving him some specific usage patterns.

The Cardinals didn’t really have many good setup options in front of their All-Star closer Ryan Helsley. In steps Phil Maton. He quickly grabbed the eighth inning role in St. Louis and doesn’t really have many competitors for the role.

Injuries wrecked Gabe Speier’s season last year but he’s healthy and firing bullets at the back of the Mariners’ ‘pen. Like King, Speier should see some specific usage patterns as a left-handed reliever and the impending return of Matt Brash could see him pushed down the pecking order in a few weeks.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 14–20

Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 14–20
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @MIA (135) @CHC (87) Brandon Pfaadt, Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 (@MIA), Eduardo Rodriguez Kelly (@CHC)
ATH @CHW (138) @MIL (96) Jeffrey Springs (x2) Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears, Luis Severino Mitch Spence
ATL @TOR (96) MIN (127) Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale Grant Holmes (x2), Spencer Strider (?) AJ Smith-Shawver
BAL CLE (139) CIN (139) Cade Povich, Charlie Morton Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS @TBR (100) CHW (144) Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck (vCHW) Houck (@TBR), Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts Sean Newcomb
CHC @SDP (92) ARI (71) Shota Imanaga Matthew Boyd Jameson Taillon (x2), Ben Brown Colin Rea
CHW ATH (82) @BOS (53) Shane Smith Sean Burke (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Martín Pérez
CIN SEA (104) @BAL (101) Brady Singer, Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo (x2), Nick Martinez Andrew Abbott (?)
CLE @BAL (101) @PIT (156) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz
COL @LAD (46) WSN (86) Ryan Feltner, Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander Antonio Senzatela (x2), Kyle Freeland
DET @MIL (96) KCR (136) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson, Casey Mize Jackson Jobe
HOU @STL (112) SDP (90) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco Hayden Wesneski Ryan Gusto
KCR @NYY (36) @DET (125) Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo (@DET) Lugo (@NYY), Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha (@DET) Wacha (@NYY), Michael Lorenzen
LAA @TEX (97) SFG (104) José Soriano Yusei Kikuchi (x2) Jack Kochanowicz, Kyle Hendricks Tyler Anderson
LAD COL (128) @TEX (97) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May (x2) Landon Knack, Roki Sasaki
MIA ARI (49) @PHI (40) Max Meyer (x2), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Edward Cabrera (?), Connor Gillispie
MIL DET (96) ATH (92) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana (?) Tyler Alexander (x2), Chad Patrick
MIN NYM (92) @ATL (84) Joe Ryan (x2) Bailey Ober David Festa, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM @MIN (130) STL (108) Clay Holmes (x2), Tylor Megill (x2), Kodai Senga David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY KCR (104) @TBR (100) Max Fried (x2) Carlos Rodón Clarke Schmidt (?), Marcus Stroman, Will Warren
PHI SFG (119) MIA (130) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker (x2)
PIT WSN (118) CLE (122) Paul Skenes (x2) Mitch Keller (x2), Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter, Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP CHC (76) @HOU (130) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta, Michael King Randy Vásquez, Kyle Hart 하트
SEA @CIN (88) @TOR (96) Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert Casey Lawrence (?)
SFG @PHI (40) @LAA (75) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Landen Roupp (@LAA) Roupp (@PHI), Justin Verlander (x2)
STL HOU (146) @NYM (105) Sonny Gray (x2) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Steven Matz (?), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR BOS (66) NYY (48) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Zack Littell (x2), Taj Bradley
TEX LAA (91) LAD (45) Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter (?), Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Kumar Rocker Patrick Corbin (x2)
TOR ATL (89) SEA (142) Kevin Gausman (x2) Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, José Berríos Easton Lucas
WSN @PIT (156) @COL (104) Jake Irvin (@PIT), Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams, MacKenzie Gore Brad Lord (x2), Irvin (@COL)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Orioles are the only team with two easier matchups next week, but unfortunately, their rotation is a bit up in the air with the injury to Zack Eflin. I don’t really trust any of their other starters, even against weaker opponents at home.
  • The two Florida teams pull some pretty tough opponents next week. The Marlins host the Diamondbacks and then head to Philadelphia while the Rays host the Red Sox and Yankees. It’s still too early to put much stock in the early park factors for George M. Steinbrenner Field, but Statcast lists its current park factor as 92, though I wonder if that’s more to do with the weather than the actual park dimensions.