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Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Starting Pitchers

by
February 24, 2026
Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) pitches the ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at Truist Park.
Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push shifts to the mound with a look at starting pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/24/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $3-$5 and above. Updated tier placement for 23 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Ottoneu Points SP Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Projected Pts Pts/IP Notes
$45-$54 1 Tarik Skubal 1190.9 6.17 Arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now. Dominant fastball and three swing-and-miss secondary pitches.
$45-$54 2 Paul Skenes 1106.5 6.05 Arguably better than Skubal and definitely younger. Strikeout rate took a tiny step backwards in 2025 and his fastball isn’t as dominant.
$36-$44 3 Garrett Crochet 1089.9 5.74 Proved health concerns were a thing of the past in 2025. Best slider in baseball but can be a little home run prone.
$28-$35 4 Chris Sale 877.6 5.81 Projected to be #3 pitcher by P/IP but there are injury and workload concerns.
$28-$35 5 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 862.7 5.53 Fantastic underlying skills, despite small bump in walk rate. Overall value hampered by volume concerns.
$28-$35 6 Shohei Ohtani 538.8 5.43 If Ohtani was only a pitcher, this is where he’d rank based on his P/IP ceiling. Of course, the question is how many innings he’ll actually pitch in 2026.
$28-$35 7 Cristopher Sánchez 1020.8 5.32 Followed up breakout 2024 with an ever better season in ’25. Pretty ideal profile for Ottoneu: high strikeouts, low walks, high groundball rate.
$28-$35 8 Hunter Greene 810.1 5.30 A groin injury derailed what was looking like a breakout season. Figured out how to locate his slider and his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved significantly.
$28-$35 9 Tyler Glasnow 641.9 5.27 Another Dodgers starter with workload concerns, but more importantly, his walk rate spiked and strikeout rate fell in 2025. His slider took a significant step backwards.
$28-$35 10 Logan Gilbert 880.9 5.24 Big spike in strikeout rate came with a bunch more home runs. His splitter is an incredible pitch, but the slider and fastball can get hit hard at times.
$28-$35 11 Logan Webb 1066.6 5.22 A metronome who got even better in 2025. Improved his strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate low and groundball rate high.
$21-$27 12 Cole Ragans 827.8 5.50 Might have been the hardest pitcher to rank. Major shoulder injury last year throws his health into question. Big improvements in his underlying skills — career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio — but BABIP ballooned over .350.
$21-$27 13 Blake Snell 684.7 5.40 Strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since 2017 but was still excellent in limited innings. Like every Dodgers starter, the question is volume.
$21-$27 14 Chase Burns 574.7 5.16 Massive ceiling we got a glimpse of in 2025. Is the repertoire deep enough to be successful as a frontline starter?
$21-$27 15 Kyle Bradish 663.3 5.15 Returned from Tommy John surgery to make 6 promising starts in 2025. All his skills looked intact.
$21-$27 16 Jacob deGrom 855.3 5.14 Finally healthy for an entire season but skills deteriorated a bit. Still very good, but not elite anymore.
$21-$27 17 Max Fried 940.5 5.14 Had an excellent debut season in New York. Almost as metronomic as Webb.
$21-$27 18 Hunter Brown 915.1 5.14 Followed up breakout 2024 with an ever better season in ’25. Strikeout rate increase wasn’t supported by enough additional whiffs.
$21-$27 19 Bryan Woo 903.7 5.11 Two fantastic fastballs and a developing repertoire of secondary weapons. Consistently good every week.
$21-$27 20 Nathan Eovaldi 772.4 5.02 Health is a big question but he put together his best season of his career in 2025 before getting sidelined.
$21-$27 21 Dylan Cease 893.0 5.00 Can be extremely inconsistent from start to start, but the strikeouts give him a solid foundation.
$21-$27 22 Framber Valdez 929.3 4.99 Elite groundball rate means fewer home runs — good in Ottoneu — but his strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped a bit in 2025.
$21-$27 23 George Kirby 820.8 4.96 Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Signature command slipped a little bit but he might have found a breaking ball that works for him.
$21-$27 24 Jesús Luzardo 840.7 4.94 Healthy in 2025 and put up a season very similar to his breakout in 2023.
$15-$20 25 Zack Wheeler 854.4 5.58 Thoracic outlet surgery throws his entire future up in the air — and he was already entering his age-36 season. Monitor his health reports in the spring.
$15-$20 26 Spencer Schwellenbach 701.6 5.03 Should be healthy to start 2026 after elbow fracture. Showed fantastic skills across two half seasons in ’24 and ’25.
$15-$20 27 Joe Ryan 795.3 4.87 Really struggled with a home run problem during the final two months of 2025 (12 HRs in 10 starts, 5.01 FIP). Fastball and secondaries all looked good, so it could have been just bad luck.
$15-$20 28 Sonny Gray 849.4 4.87 Veteran who has been able to stay effective as he ages. Fastball dipped below 92 mph in 2025 and new home park in Boston won’t do him any favors.
$15-$20 29 Brandon Woodruff 622.0 4.86 Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Strikeout-to-walk ratio was fantastic despite a dip in overall Stuff+.
$15-$20 30 Kris Bubic 624.4 4.86 Breakout season interrupted by a shoulder injury in July. If he’s healthy, his underlying skills look solid.
$15-$20 31 Freddy Peralta 823.1 4.85 Solid skills across the board but high fly ball rate leads to a few too many home runs.
$15-$20 32 Jacob Misiorowski 605.8 4.85 The raw stuff is undeniable but the lack of command is holding him back. Strikeout rate is high enough to offset the free passes but there are volume concerns too.
$15-$20 33 Eury Pérez 612.2 4.80 Up-and-down ceiling after returning from Tommy John surgery. Huge Stuff+ darling with a massive ceiling.
$15-$20 34 Drew Rasmussen 723.9 4.80 Despite workload limits, still pitched 150 innings in 2025 with solid underlying skills. Wore down towards the end of the season.
$15-$20 35 Nolan McLean 640.3 4.78 Brilliant debut at the end of the season in 2025. Managed to improve command in the big leagues to go along with high strikeout and groundball rates.
$15-$20 36 Nick Pivetta 817.9 4.75 Enjoyed a career-best season in 2025 thanks to a big drop in home runs allowed. Fly ball heavy batted ball profile is always dangerous.
$15-$20 37 Gerrit Cole 621.2 4.73 Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Track record speaks for itself but still questions about his skills returning after injury.
$15-$20 38 Michael King 699.0 4.70 Shoulder injury derailed his season in 2025 but stikeout-to-walk ratio wasn’t too affected. Health still a question.
$15-$20 39 Ranger Suárez 744.0 4.66 Command improved in 2025 to go along with decent strikeout rate and good groundball rate.
$15-$20 40 Kevin Gausman 853.0 4.66 Bounced back a bit in 2025 with improved strikeout-to-walk ratio. BABIP allowed dropped to .262 which is likely to regress upwards.
$10-$14 41 Emmet Sheehan 612.3 5.03 Like every other Dodgers starter, he has workload concerns. Took a huge step forward in 2025 with a pair of fantastic secondary pitches.
$10-$14 42 Justin Steele 541.2 4.80 Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. He was great for three years with his weird fastball but needs to prove he’s healthy.
$10-$14 43 Trey Yesavage 648.5 4.74 Incredible debut in September and through the playoffs. Super weird release point didn’t help his fastball but his splitter was a monster. Will the Blue Jays manage his workload in ’26?
$10-$14 44 Spencer Strider 686.2 4.63 Didn’t regain his fastball after Tommy John surgery and his whole arsenal suffered. If the velocity is back, he could be a steal. If not, he might not even rise to this level of value.
$10-$14 45 Edward Cabrera 602.3 4.60 Finally figured out his command issues, dropped his walk rate by 4 points. Health is still a big question.
$10-$14 46 Nick Lodolo 659.8 4.57 Just had the best season of his career in 2025. Improved command and solid strikeout rate but needs to stay healthy.
$10-$14 47 MacKenzie Gore 734.3 4.57 Huge strikeout ceiling thanks to elite secondary pitches but wore down during the second half of 2025 (2.96 FIP in 1H, 5.49 in 2H).
$10-$14 48 Jack Flaherty 726.2 4.56 Strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped a bit in 2025 after resurgent season in ’24. Great breaking balls but can be a bit erratic.
$6-$9 49 Corbin Burnes 683.5 4.90 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Was struggling with his command in 2025 before the injury.
$6-$9 50 Shane McClanahan 626.6 4.72 Hasn’t pitched since August 2023 thanks to Tommy John surgery and a triceps injury. I have no idea what to expect from him if he’s healthy (which isn’t a guarantee).
$6-$9 51 Jonah Tong 417.2 4.71 Top prospect who had a bit of a rough debut in September. Currently buried on the Mets depth chart and needs a third pitch to raise his ceiling.
$6-$9 52 Connelly Early 373.3 4.65 Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. Currently buried on the Red Sox depth chart but should force his way into an opportunity sooner rather than later.
$6-$9 53 Braxton Ashcraft 561.0 4.65 Top prospect who finally got a shot to start in August. His fastball is merely okay but his secondaries look great. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
$6-$9 54 Grayson Rodriguez 552.5 4.64 Missed the entire 2025 season with multiple arm issues. Had shown some promising skills a few years ago but health throws it all into question. New home in Angels Stadium won’t help either.
$6-$9 55 José Soriano 730.5 4.59 Four swing-and-miss secondary pitches but can’t generate strikeouts because his pitch mix is too sinker heavy. Elite groundball rate provides a solid floor.
$6-$9 56 Carlos Rodón 767.9 4.58 Coming off offseason elbow surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Decent skills across the board when healthy.
$6-$9 57 Cam Schlittler 522.8 4.52 Excellent debut in 2025. Solid three pitch mix but lack of command hurts his ceiling a bit.
$6-$9 58 Jared Jones 457.8 4.49 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
$6-$9 59 Joey Cantillo 543.9 4.49 Looked great once he earned a chance to start in July. Command is a little shaky but has a legit weapon in his changeup.
$6-$9 60 Sean Manaea 584.4 4.49 Cut his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider. A career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio was great to see but he also suffered from a massive home run spike.
$6-$9 61 Matthew Boyd 722.4 4.48 Finally healthy for the first time since 2019. Strikeout-to-walk ratio was excellent despite a lower strikeout rate.
$6-$9 62 Joe Musgrove 594.1 4.48 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery but should be healthy for spring training. Solid skills across the board when healthy.
$6-$9 63 Bubba Chandler 629.8 4.45 Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. His fastball looks elite, he’s got excellent command, but his secondaries need to develop a bit more. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
$6-$9 64 Cade Horton 562.6 4.43 Excellent debut in 2025 but a lot of his success seemed to be BABIP driven. Solid command, deep repertoire, great secondaries give him a decent floor and potential for high ceiling.
$6-$9 65 David Peterson 696.9 4.43 Decent skills across the board. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but command isn’t good enough to raise his ceiling too high.
$6-$9 66 Luis Castillo 786.8 4.42 Velocity dropped in 2025 and strikeout rate dropped 3 points for the second season in a row. Decent skills otherwise, but probably won’t reach his ceiling again.
$6-$9 67 Kodai Senga 552.5 4.41 Hamstring injury derailed his season and couldn’t get his mechanics right after returning. We’ve seen the ceiling, but I’m not sure he’ll bounce back.
$6-$9 68 Gavin Williams 696.5 4.40 Second half success was largely BABIP driven. Command is still lacking but his deep repertoire gives him something to build on.
$6-$9 69 Ryan Pepiot 702.1 4.40 Went through some big ups and downs in 2025 and was hurt by Steinbrenner Field. Decent skills across the board and should be better back in Tropicana Field.
$6-$9 70 DJ Herz 308.8 4.38 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
$6-$9 71 Tanner Bibee 770.7 4.38 Despite strong Stuff+ grades, he never seemed to be able to put it all together in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 5 points and he allowed a bunch more home runs.
$6-$9 72 Trevor Rogers 636.8 4.37 Had an absolutely incredible run to finish 2025. Health will always be a question but showed off the same skills from his 2021 breakout.
$6-$9 73 Ian Seymour 441.9 4.33 Looked great once he earned a chance to start in August. Has an excellent changeup but might get squeezed out of the rotation to start the season.
$6-$9 74 Robbie Ray 734.2 4.33 Finally healthy after Tommy John surgery in 2023. Didn’t have the same strikeout ceiling we’ve been used to and his command was a little shaky.
$6-$9 75 Clay Holmes 640.2 4.32 The transition to the rotation worked out but he wore down as the season went on. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but strikeout-to-walk ratio is merely okay.
$6-$9 76 Zac Gallen 787.2 4.25 Suffered through the worst season of his career in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 4 points, but still could bounce back if he can figure out the whiff rate issues.
$6-$9 77 Sandy Alcantara 749.3 4.22 Got stronger as the season wore on. Strikeout rate ticked up and walk rate ticked down. We know what his ceiling looks like.
$3-$5 78 Reynaldo López 608.3 4.81 Looked great in his return to the starting rotation in 2024 but shoulder injuries are no joke. How effective will he be and what will his workload look like?
$3-$5 79 Reid Detmers 553.8 4.53 Returning to the starting rotation after a successful stint in the bullpen in 2025. Fastball-slider combo is dominant, but needs a third or fourth pitch to be successful.
$3-$5 80 Braxton Garrett 541.4 4.43 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery but should be healthy for spring training. Enjoyed big breakout in 2023 before the injury but needs to prove he’s healthy after missing so much time.
$3-$5 81 Logan Henderson 540.1 4.39 Big strikeout potential, but questions about workload and the need for a third pitch. Penciled in as the Brewers fifth starter but faces a ton of competition from other top prospects.
$3-$5 82 Shane Bieber 526.3 4.36 Returned from Tommy John surgery to make 7 promising starts in 2025. All his skills looked intact but suffered from a home run problem.
$3-$5 83 Merrill Kelly 켈리 736.9 4.31 Sturdy veteran who shouldn’t hurt in any one category but doesn’t standout in any either.
$3-$5 84 Robert Gasser 393.8 4.30 Fighting for a spot in Milwaukee’s starting rotation. Health should be monitored after returning from Tommy John surgery late in 2025.
$3-$5 85 Cody Ponce 폰세 635.3 4.30 Returning to the US after winning the KBO MVP in 2025. Added velocity and a new changeup in Asia.
$3-$5 86 Michael Soroka 499.9 4.30 Had a nice run as a starter with the Nationals before getting traded to Chicago. Should have a spot in Arizona’s rotation, but there’s some risk he could be shifted to the bullpen.
$3-$5 87 Brandon Sproat 405.6 4.29 Fighting for a spot in Milwaukee’s starting rotation. Has a higher ceiling than Henderson or Gasser but maybe needs more development time to reach it.
$3-$5 88 Grant Holmes 396.6 4.28 He couldn’t replicate his surprise success from 2024 in ’25, but you might chalk that up to an elbow issue that cost him half the season. Needs to get the walks back under control.
$3-$5 89 Mike Burrows 529.7 4.28 Improved as the year went on in 2025 (5.09 FIP in 1H, 3.19 in 2H) and now in Houston with their player development group.
$3-$5 90 Tyler Mahle 515.0 4.27 Was finally healthy for half a season, and looked pretty good, but then got injured again in mid-June. San Francisco is a nice landing spot but health will always be a question.
$3-$5 91 Landen Roupp 477.9 4.26 Had a solid first full season in the rotation in 2025 somewhat derailed by a knee injury. Curveball is a legit weapon but needs a third or fourth pitch to thrive.
$3-$5 92 Shane Smith 667.3 4.26 A rare rule 5 success story in Chicago’s rotation. Decent peripherals all around though the ceiling might not be very high.
$3-$5 93 Ryne Nelson 658.4 4.24 His four-seam fastball is one of the best in baseball at mitigating hard contact. Needs to work on his secondary pitches to really take a step forward.
$3-$5 94 Chad Patrick 564.3 4.20 Great debut in 2025 before getting squeeze out of Milwaukee’s rotation. Deep arsenal with one of the best cutters in baseball as a foundation.
$3-$5 95 Shane Baz 649.5 4.19 Finally healthy for a full season in 2025 but results were up and down. Focused his arsenal on his legit curveball. Landing in Baltimore should help too.
$3-$5 96 Mitch Keller 738.5 4.19 Decent skills across the board and durable. Hasn’t been able to replicate the 25% K% from 2023 which limits his ceiling.
$3-$5 97 Bryce Miller 577.6 4.19 We know what his ceiling looks like from his breakout season in 2024, but an elbow injury derailed his season in ’25. Might have the highest ceiling of anyone in this tier.
$3-$5 98 Aaron Nola 689.5 4.18 Veteran slowly succumbing to Father Time. He’s been incredibly durable, which is valuable, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll ever get back to the ace he was a few years ago.
$3-$5 99 Luis Gil 446.2 4.18 A lat strain cost him more than half the season in 2025. Somehow manages to walk the tight rope of a double digit walk rate by limiting hard contact.
$3-$5 100 Janson Junk 446.7 4.17 Took a big step forward in 2025 by cutting his walk rate to just 2.9%. His strikeout rate isn’t great and he gives up a little too much hard contact, but the elite command gives him a nice floor.
$3-$5 101 Michael Wacha 683.0 4.13 Decent skills across the board and durable. Strikeout rate dropped to a career low in 2025. Pitch mix leaned away from his signature changeup for some reason.
$3-$5 102 Tatsuya Imai 595.1 4.12 Coming over from NBP after a dominant season in 2025. Phenomenal slider earns plenty of whiffs, but command might be an issue.
$3-$5 103 Yusei Kikuchi 707.4 4.10 Couldn’t replicate his mini-breakout from 2024 in Los Angeles. Strikeout rate dropped 5.5 points and the walk rate shot up again.
$3-$5 104 Will Warren 585.3 4.09 Ran out of steam during towards the end of 2025. Secondary pitches looked great during his excellent start to the season, hopefully has more endurance in ’26.
$3-$5 105 Noah Cameron 584.0 4.07 Great debut in 2025. Solid command and deep arsenal give him a high floor, but the strikeout rate is a little too low to give him a high ceiling.
$3-$5 106 Casey Mize 590.1 4.05 Followed up a healthy 2024 with a better season across the board in ’25. Fastball/splitter combo works well but needs a better third or fourth pitch to take a step forward.
$3-$5 107 Shota Imanaga 613.4 4.04 Big step backwards in his second season in Chicago. Strikeout rate dropped nearly 5 points and he allowed way too many home runs.
$3-$5 108 Andrew Abbott 650.0 4.04 Enjoyed a big breakout season in 2025. Suppresses hard contact with his fastball and changeup and slider get just enough whiffs.
$3-$5 109 Roki Sasaki 428.4 4.03 Suffered through a disaster of a season in his first year in Los Angeles. Big questions about his durability, lack of a third pitch, and command, but the underlying talent is still present.
$1-$2 110 Payton Tolle 345.0 4.52
$1-$2 111 Sean Newcomb 429.9 4.48
$1-$2 112 Kyle Leahy 458.2 4.41
$1-$2 113 Joe Boyle 399.6 4.40
$1-$2 114 Kai-Wei Teng 238.1 4.28
$1-$2 115 Ricky Tiedemann 177.0 4.25
$1-$2 116 David Festa 275.3 4.24
$1-$2 117 Hurston Waldrep 537.8 4.23
$1-$2 118 Thomas White 344.2 4.22
$1-$2 119 Foster Griffin 566.8 4.20
$1-$2 120 Stephen Kolek 423.7 4.19
$1-$2 121 Brady Singer 718.4 4.18
$1-$2 122 Steven Matz 436.5 4.18
$1-$2 123 Parker Messick 479.8 4.17
$1-$2 124 Jacob Lopez 495.2 4.17
$1-$2 125 Jack Leiter 606.4 4.16
$1-$2 126 Johan Oviedo 446.6 4.14
$1-$2 127 Ryan Weiss 와이스 463.7 4.14
$1-$2 128 Taj Bradley 568.3 4.12
$1-$2 129 Ryan Weathers 421.0 4.12
$1-$2 130 Brayan Bello 665.3 4.11
$1-$2 131 Chris Bassitt 685.1 4.10
$1-$2 132 Troy Melton 449.3 4.10
$1-$2 133 Robby Snelling 501.9 4.10
$1-$2 134 Jacob Latz 380.4 4.10
$1-$2 135 Kutter Crawford 520.5 4.09
$1-$2 136 Quinn Priester 622.0 4.08
$1-$2 137 Zebby Matthews 443.5 4.08
$1-$2 138 Cade Cavalli 513.7 4.05
$1-$2 139 Brandon Pfaadt 692.4 4.03
$1-$2 140 Nick Martinez 605.6 4.01
$1-$2 141 Michael McGreevy 528.3 3.98
$1-$2 142 Dustin May 544.6 3.96
$1-$2 143 Seth Lugo 638.1 3.95
$1-$2 144 Kumar Rocker 383.4 3.92
$1-$2 145 Bailey Ober 587.4 3.90
$1-$2 146 Matthew Liberatore 550.3 3.90
$1-$2 147 Spencer Arrighetti 388.2 3.89
$1-$2 148 Zach Eflin 497.2 3.69
$1-$2 149 Lucas Giolito 568.5 3.65
$1-$2 150 Andrew Painter 452.4 3.61
$0-$1 151 Seth Hernandez #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 152 Kade Anderson #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 153 Liam Doyle #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 154 Jamie Arnold #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 155 Gage Jump #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 156 Jarlin Susana #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 157 Tyler Bremner #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 158 Pablo López 751.5 4.77 Elbow injury in 2025 turned out to be minor, returned to make 3 starts in September. (Update: the elbow injury was actually more serious.)
$0-$1 159 Reese Olson 551.0 4.70 Will be returning from a shoulder injury but should be healthy for spring training. (Update: he was not healthy for spring training.)
$0-$1 160 Tylor Megill 394.8 4.64
$0-$1 161 Jakob Junis 312.5 4.58
$0-$1 162 Clarke Schmidt 385.0 4.57
$0-$1 163 Ben Brown 377.8 4.48
$0-$1 164 AJ Smith-Shawver 235.5 4.29
$0-$1 165 Christian Scott 205.9 4.17
$0-$1 166 Tanner Houck 515.3 4.15
$0-$1 167 Keaton Winn 202.0 4.14
$0-$1 168 Patrick Sandoval 370.9 4.13
$0-$1 169 Cody Bradford 262.9 4.13
$0-$1 170 Didier Fuentes 308.4 4.13
$0-$1 171 Kyle Harrison 354.4 4.11
$0-$1 172 Tobias Myers 381.8 4.06
$0-$1 173 Chris Murphy 207.5 4.05
$0-$1 174 Eric Lauer 라우어 359.6 4.01
$0-$1 175 Trevor McDonald 380.3 3.94
$0-$1 176 AJ Blubaugh 297.1 3.93
$0-$1 177 Dean Kremer 608.9 3.91
$0-$1 178 Adrian Houser 504.2 3.91
$0-$1 179 Simeon Woods Richardson 485.5 3.90
$0-$1 180 Hayden Birdsong 295.9 3.90
$0-$1 181 Luis Severino 654.0 3.90
$0-$1 182 Quinn Mathews 290.7 3.88
$0-$1 183 Javier Assad 376.9 3.88
$0-$1 184 Ryan Bergert 311.3 3.87
$0-$1 185 Blade Tidwell 298.5 3.87
$0-$1 186 Sawyer Gipson-Long 215.1 3.82
$0-$1 187 Max Meyer 431.3 3.81
$0-$1 188 Luis Morales 408.0 3.81
$0-$1 189 Colin Rea 520.1 3.79
$0-$1 190 Jameson Taillon 568.6 3.78
$0-$1 191 Cade Povich 369.9 3.78
$0-$1 192 Brad Lord 527.1 3.76
$0-$1 193 Aaron Civale 489.9 3.76
$0-$1 194 Hunter Dobbins 315.1 3.75
$0-$1 195 Rhett Lowder 337.5 3.75
$0-$1 196 Tyler Wells 342.6 3.75
$0-$1 197 Max Scherzer 419.6 3.75
$0-$1 198 Andre Pallante 541.6 3.74
$0-$1 199 Mick Abel 368.0 3.74
$0-$1 200 Noah Schultz 251.7 3.72
$0-$1 201 Yilber Díaz 211.5 3.72
$0-$1 202 José Berríos 588.4 3.71
$0-$1 203 Cristian Javier 457.9 3.63
$0-$1 204 Slade Cecconi 485.7 3.61
$0-$1 205 Jeffrey Springs 585.6 3.61
$0-$1 206 Eduardo Rodriguez 500.7 3.59
$0-$1 207 Chase Dollander 363.2 3.09
$0-$1 208 Jackson Jobe 190.5 3.05
$0 209 Hagen Smith #N/A #N/A
$0 210 Brandon Walter 262.8 4.38
$0 211 DL Hall 215.5 4.29
$0 212 Ronel Blanco 473.0 4.28
$0 213 Alex Cobb 367.8 4.11
$0 214 Yu Darvish 352.2 4.07
$0 215 Cooper Criswell 309.0 4.02
$0 216 J.T. Ginn 361.0 3.99
$0 217 John Means 111.8 3.94
$0 218 Gavin Stone 386.3 3.94
$0 219 Jon Gray 390.1 3.92
$0 220 Justin Verlander 547.1 3.91
$0 221 Hayden Wesneski 224.7 3.87
$0 222 Jordan Wicks 232.3 3.87
$0 223 Jhony Brito 215.1 3.86
$0 224 Ryan Yarbrough 278.7 3.78
$0 225 Charlie Morton 491.0 3.74
$0 226 Ty Madden 210.2 3.71
$0 227 Matt Waldron 385.0 3.68
$0 228 Joey Wentz 301.3 3.68
$0 229 Joe Ross 211.3 3.68
$0 230 Bryce Elder 478.7 3.68
$0 231 Yoendrys Gómez 299.2 3.67
$0 232 Jordan Montgomery 408.8 3.65
$0 233 Paul Blackburn 254.8 3.63
$0 234 Luis Medina 355.2 3.63
$0 235 Davis Martin 506.8 3.62
$0 236 Nestor Cortes 442.7 3.59
$0 237 Spencer Turnbull 233.7 3.58
$0 238 Kyle Wright 305.7 3.58
$0 239 Griffin Canning 469.3 3.58
$0 240 Kyle Hart 하트 270.1 3.57
$0 241 Zack Littell 606.2 3.56
$0 242 Lance McCullers Jr. 357.8 3.56
$0 243 Richard Fitts 328.5 3.56
$0 244 Chayce McDermott 213.4 3.56
$0 245 Anthony Kay 471.2 3.55
$0 246 Jose Quintana 501.0 3.54
$0 247 Ben Lively 라이블리 365.3 3.52
$0 248 Ryan Gusto 318.2 3.52
$0 249 Mason Barnett 299.0 3.51
$0 250 Mitch Spence 369.3 3.51
$0 251 Logan Evans 296.9 3.50
$0 252 Sean Burke 483.4 3.46
$0 253 Logan Allen로건 464.8 3.46
$0 254 Osvaldo Bido 252.4 3.46
$0 255 J.P. France 242.8 3.46
$0 256 Carson Seymour 237.3 3.46
$0 257 Erick Fedde 페디 509.0 3.45
$0 258 Alek Manoah 333.1 3.44
$0 259 Mitch Farris 273.0 3.44
$0 260 Bailey Falter 387.5 3.42
$0 261 Martín Pérez 395.4 3.41
$0 262 Emerson Hancock 294.9 3.40
$0 263 Carson Whisenhunt 249.1 3.40
$0 264 Mitchell Parker 476.9 3.39
$0 265 Ryan Feltner 399.3 3.39
$0 266 Keider Montero 333.4 3.39
$0 267 Patrick Corbin 513.0 3.38
$0 268 Michael Lorenzen 473.1 3.38
$0 269 Marcus Stroman 408.2 3.35
$0 270 JP Sears 491.7 3.35
$0 271 Bobby Miller 253.9 3.35
$0 272 Bowden Francis 236.4 3.34
$0 273 Landon Knack 256.3 3.29
$0 274 Randy Vasquez 428.2 3.26
$0 275 Jason Alexander 259.5 3.24
$0 276 Josiah Gray 395.7 3.24
$0 277 Colton Gordon 283.0 3.21
$0 278 Chris Paddack 412.3 3.20
$0 279 José Urquidy 337.4 3.20
$0 280 Miles Mikolas 488.3 3.19
$0 281 Jonathan Cannon 367.2 3.18
$0 282 Brandon Young 190.3 3.17
$0 283 Drew Thorpe 219.5 3.16
$0 284 Frankie Montas 334.5 3.15
$0 285 Mason Black 229.0 3.14
$0 286 Caden Dana 287.0 3.14
$0 287 Jake Irvin 521.4 3.11
$0 288 Kyle Freeland 501.2 3.09
$0 289 Tyler Anderson 444.8 3.04
$0 290 Cal Quantrill 346.3 3.02
$0 291 McCade Brown 212.8 2.91
$0 292 Walker Buehler 340.9 2.86
$0 293 Tomoyuki Sugano 417.9 2.86
$0 294 Taijuan Walker 329.3 2.74
$0 295 Germán Márquez 336.4 2.60
$0 296 Gunnar Hoglund 140.8 2.59
$0 297 Austin Gomber 274.1 2.58
$0 298 Tanner Gordon 281.8 2.51
$0 299 Antonio Senzatela 208.3 2.01

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Outfield

by
February 20, 2026
Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

After starting with the second largest position group last week, the Ottoneu rankings push continues with the largest position group this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/20/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 21 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 75-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points OF Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Aaron Judge OF 1325.5 2.03 The best hitter in baseball and showing no signs of slowing down.
$55-$65 2 Juan Soto OF 1160.9 1.70 Despite the slow start in his first season in New York, still finished the season as the third most valuable player in Ottoneu.
$45-$54 3 Yordan Alvarez OF 857.2 1.68 Unquestionably productive when healthy, but has never played in more than 150 games in a single season and has averaged just 118 games per season over the last five years.
$45-$54 4 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF 915.8 1.64 Skills all looked intact after he returned from his second major knee injury in late May. Lack of SB shouldn’t be an issue in FGpts.
$36-$44 5 Kyle Tucker OF 868.7 1.51 Should be healthy in 2026 after a finger injury derailed his 2H in ’25. Only question is where he’ll sign — he’ll produce wherever he lands.
$36-$44 6 Kyle Schwarber OF 1011.6 1.48 Even though he re-signed with the Phillies, it’s hard to imagine him repeating his career year from 2025.
$36-$44 7 Corbin Carroll OF 935.2 1.45 Contact quality dramatically improved last year. Could he take another step forward?
$28-$35 8 Brent Rooker OF 911.8 1.42 Plate discipline continued to improve in 2025, and contact quality was still excellent, but wOBA still fell by nearly 50 points. I’m looking for a bounce back in ’26.
$28-$35 9 Fernando Tatis Jr. OF 886.1 1.41 Probably won’t return to the .400 wOBAs he posted early in his career, still very productive with .350 wOBAs.
$28-$35 10 James Wood OF 817.6 1.35 Despite second half slump (150 wRC+ in 1H, 93 in 2H), ceiling is extremely high.
$28-$35 11 Julio Rodríguez OF 885.6 1.33 Still hits too many groundballs, but improved his strikeout rate in 2025. Batted ball quality is still there, just needs to elevate more.
$21-$27 12 Byron Buxton OF 714.2 1.45 Produces like a top 10 OF by Pts/PA but the question is always how many games will he play. 2025 was the first time he had more than 500 PAs since 2017.
$21-$27 13 George Springer OF 791.0 1.34 How much do you trust his rebound? Significant skill changes drove improvements, but he’s entering his age-36 season.
$21-$27 14 Riley Greene OF 813.7 1.33 Broke out wiht 36 HR in 2025, but strikeout rate climbed over 30%. Still starts against LHP, but very unproductive.
$21-$27 15 Seiya Suzuki OF 805.1 1.32 Contact quality still excellent despite second half slump. Plus he stayed healthy all season long.
$21-$27 16 Roman Anthony OF 684.3 1.32 Extremely impressive big league debut cut short by injury. Could have highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$21-$27 17 Mike Trout OF 641.5 1.31 How the mighty have fallen. Power output significantly dropped but managed to play more than 130 games for the first time since 2019.
$21-$27 18 Wyatt Langford OF 748.3 1.28 Prospect hype placed too high expectations on him. Slower to develop but still very good player and getting better.
$21-$27 19 Jackson Chourio OF 763.2 1.27 One of the youngest players in baseball with two good seasons to start his career. Still waiting for a big step forward.
$15-$20 20 Kyle Stowers OF 632.1 1.32 Breakout season in 2025 cut short by injury. All the underlying metrics look solid, needs to prove it in ’26.
$15-$20 21 Jarren Duran OF 829.5 1.29 Issues against LHP keep his ceiling lower than you’d think. Hard to pay more than $20 for what is essentially a part-time player.
$15-$20 22 Tyler Soderstrom 1B/OF 686.2 1.27 Big breakout wasn’t a Sacramento mirage (-9 point wOBA home/road split). Adding OF eligibility definitely helps his value.
$15-$20 23 Christian Yelich OF 716.5 1.26 Good all around player. Completely healthy season after serious back injury cut 2024 short.
$15-$20 24 Cody Bellinger OF 765.6 1.26 Could be ranked a tier lower depending on where he signs. Big beneficiary of Yankee Stadium’s short porch (76 point wOBA home/away split)
$15-$20 25 Jackson Merrill OF 701.1 1.26 Five point increase in strikeout rate led to 20 point drop in wOBA. Contact quality remained solid.
$15-$20 26 Teoscar Hernández OF 727.3 1.25 Barrell rate down. Walk rate down. Feels like 2024 was the outlier between two disappointing seasons.
$10-$14 27 Matt Wallner OF 539.8 1.29 No platoon issues last year despite reputation. BABIP dropped 161 points last year, should be better in ’26.
$10-$14 28 Kerry Carpenter OF 569.7 1.29 Crushes RHP. Nearly unplayable against LHP. Probably won’t repeat the highs of 2024.
$10-$14 29 Wilyer Abreu OF 552.9 1.24 Big gains in contact rate while improving barrel rate. Top line results didn’t follow underlying metrics, but could take step forward in ’26.
$10-$14 30 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF 712.7 1.24 131 wRC+ in 1H, 72 in 2H. Which is the real Pete? Underlying skills stayed stable throughout the year — maybe 2H slump was just bad luck?
$10-$14 31 Taylor Ward OF 760.1 1.22 Traded away from home run friendly Angels Stadium to unfriendly Camden Yards. Solid hitter but a little worried about new outlook.
$10-$14 32 Jo Adell OF 641.5 1.21 Big breakout fueled by big contact quality gains. Plate approach still poor which limits his ceiling.
$10-$14 33 Oneil Cruz OF 657.3 1.21 Still having trouble turing raw skills into a complete package. Strikeout issues a huge red flag. Ceiling is still high if he can figure out plate approach.
$10-$14 34 Jurickson Profar OF 672.3 1.21 Carried skills over from 2024 breakout after returning from his PED suspension.
$10-$14 35 Ian Happ OF 783.9 1.21 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$10-$14 36 Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF 606.5 1.21 Eliminated platoon splits in 2025, though he struggled in San Diego after trade.
$10-$14 37 Brandon Marsh OF 541.4 1.21 Much more aggressive at the plate in 2025 led to improved contact rate, lower walk rate.
$10-$14 38 Alec Burleson 1B/OF 665.0 1.20 Small improvements in plate discipline and contact quality led to big improvements in results.
$10-$14 39 Trent Grisham OF 624.5 1.20 Resurrected his career in New York, set career high in HR in 2025. Real change in plate approach from patient to selectively aggressive.
$10-$14 40 Andy Pages OF 671.7 1.19 Crushed the ball at home but couldn’t produce away from Dodger Stadium.
$10-$14 41 Randy Arozarena OF 780.6 1.18 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Contact quality improved in ’25.
$10-$14 42 Brandon Nimmo OF 749.4 1.18 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Will plate discipline rebound?
$6-$9 43 Giancarlo Stanton OF 499.0 1.28 Can still crush the ball when healthy. Enjoyed his best offensive season in 2025 since ’17, but only played in 77 games.
$6-$9 44 Tyler O’Neill OF 449.5 1.26 Is he healthy? Can he still hit for power in Camden Yards? Contact quality fell in ’25 but plate discipline bounced back.
$6-$9 45 Ramón Laureano OF 566.9 1.23 Resurrected his career in Baltimore, continued pounding the ball in San Diego. Biggest difference was 4 point improvement in contact rate.
$6-$9 47 Lawrence Butler OF 644.9 1.16 2024 showed us his ceiling if everything goes right. 2025 showed us his floor if his plate discipline continues to slide.
$6-$9 48 Daylen Lile OF 552.5 1.16 Huge finish to the season looks like it was BABIP fueled (.380 BABIP in 2H). Excellent contact skills, little power, no walks — reminds me of Steven Kwan.
$6-$9 49 Jorge Soler OF 536.1 1.16 Bat speed and power output fell significantly in 2025. Doesn’t have the plate approach to rebound if power is gone.
$6-$9 50 Bryan Reynolds OF 733.5 1.14 Strikeouts up even though chase rate fell. Contact quality stayed steady. Could bounce back if he can get the K’s back in line.
$6-$9 51 Heliot Ramos OF 705.6 1.14 Barrel rate way down but contact rate way up. Feels like he tried to trade power for contact but the result was a big step backwards.
$6-$9 52 Michael Harris II OF 644.2 1.14 2H surge salvaged his season (47 wRC+ in 1H, 130 in 2H). Projections still really like him, but I’m weary after ’24 and 1H ’25.
$6-$9 53 Jasson Domínguez OF 417.8 1.14 Might have path to full-time at-bats without Bellinger in the picture. Projections see a step forward for him in 2026, and he’s still only 23 years old.
$6-$9 54 Spencer Steer 1B/OF 663.6 1.13 Slowly worked his way back from shoulder injury (113 wRC+ in Aug/Sept). Still feels like 2023 was his high water mark.
$6-$9 55 Jesús Sánchez OF 531.3 1.13 Contact quality took a steep dive after being traded to Houston. If it rebounds, could have a much higher ceiling than this ranking assumes.
$6-$9 56 Luis Robert Jr. OF 533.4 1.11 Improved his plate discipline significantly in 2025. Power still hasn’t returned and healthy will always be a question.
$6-$9 57 Daulton Varsho OF 530.5 1.11 Big power spike after returning from shoulder injury. Too many strikeouts put a cap on his ceiling.
$3-$5 58 Mickey Moniak OF 540.5 1.25 Made real strides forward in Colorado. Strikeouts down, contact quality up, home park is a nice bonus.
$3-$5 59 Masataka Yoshida OF 394.1 1.17 Does he have a regular spot in Boston’s lineup? Injuries derailed his 2025 season but underlying metrics looked normal-ish.
$3-$5 60 Colton Cowser OF 541.3 1.15 Strikeout rate jumped through the roof in 2025. Untenable at 35%, could make it work at 30%, but the margin is razor thin.
$3-$5 61 Isaac Collins OF 469.9 1.14 Excellent contact skills, little power, can take walks. I actually like his move to KC with it’s huge BABIP boosting park effects.
$3-$5 62 Austin Hays OF 494.2 1.14 Nearly a 4 point jump in barrel rate in 2025 was really nice to see, but too many strikeouts caps his ceiling.
$3-$5 63 Jac Caglianone 1B/OF 500.0 1.14 Rough debut in 2025 but the massive power is enticing. Should get a chance to prove he can stick in the big leagues with a full-time role in ’26.
$3-$5 64 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 551.4 1.12 ACL injury means he’ll miss first few months of 2026 season.
$3-$5 65 Evan Carter OF 392.5 1.11 Injuries have stunted his development and lowered his ceiling. Made real plate discipline changes last year but still isn’t hitting the ball with authority.
$3-$5 66 Mike Yastrzemski OF 527.7 1.11 Dropped his strikeout rate below 20% in 2025 and still has pretty good contact quality metrics.
$3-$5 67 Steven Kwan OF 710.1 1.11 Even if his BABIP rebounds, it seems like his 2024 power spike was a one-year blip.
$3-$5 68 TJ Friedl OF 644.4 1.11 Solid plate approach gives him a nice floor. Tries to make the most of his pulled contact with weak contact quality.
$3-$5 69 Trevor Larnach OF 520.5 1.11 Barrel rate dipped in 2025 but maintained plate discipline improvements from ’24. Might be just a platoon player.
$3-$5 70 Jakob Marsee OF 578.6 1.11 Exciting debut might have been BABIP fueled. Even if he doesn’t return to those heights, the skills are decent enough to return some value.
$3-$5 71 JJ Bleday OF 496.3 1.11 Big step backwards in 2025. Cincinnati should be a nice place to hit but he’s probably a platoon player in that lineup.
$3-$5 72 Josh Lowe OF 484.9 1.10 Got his strikeout rate under control in 2025 but contact quality cratered. Can he put it all together in ’26? Might be just a platoon player anyway.
$3-$5 73 Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 OF 603.6 1.10 Up-and-down season wound up being just average by the end. Projections see room for growth but I’m not sure from where.
$3-$5 74 Lars Nootbaar OF 573.1 1.10 Contact quality remained excellent but wasn’t pulling the ball as much in 2025. Solid floor thanks to good plate approach.
$3-$5 75 Jordan Beck OF 569.1 1.09 Had a solid first full season in the big leagues in 2025. Decent power but BABIP was a bit high and relied on Coors Field for a lot of his success (71 point wOBA home/away split).
$3-$5 76 Brenton Doyle OF 569.1 1.06 Really struggled in 2025 but underlying skills looked intact. Be prepared to sit him on the road.
$3-$5 77 Dylan Crews OF 475.0 1.04 Still waiting for him to acclimate to the big leagues. Ceiling might not be as high as his prospect reports thought.
$1-$2 78 Jahmai Jones OF 311.7 1.30 Contact quality and plate approach improved significantly in 2025 but still only a lefty masher on the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 79 Rob Refsnyder OF 293.3 1.19 Contact quality improved significantly in 2025 but still only a lefty masher on the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 80 Dylan Beavers OF 473.0 1.16 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Baltimore. Extremely patient with decent power.
$1-$2 81 Troy Johnston 1B/OF 385.2 1.16 Decent debut in Miami in 2025 and now gets to call Coors Field home.
$1-$2 82 Luke Raley 1B/OF 360.2 1.13 Injuries took a toll on him in 2025 and might be squeezed out of a roster spot in Seattle. Only a platoon hitter if he gets an opportunity somewhere.
$1-$2 83 Jake McCarthy OF 421.7 1.13 Speedster showed a little more pop in 2025 but his BABIP dropped by nearly 100 points. Now gets to call Coors Field home.
$1-$2 84 Dominic Canzone OF 406.5 1.13 Had the quietest 141 wRC+ season in 2025. Fantastic contact quality, decent plate approach, might not be able to hit lefties.
$1-$2 85 Garrett Mitchell OF 324.8 1.12 Injuries have prevented him from establishing himself in the big leagues. Still has plenty of tools but contact issues could be a problem.
$1-$2 86 Colby Thomas OF 388.8 1.11 Huge power, huge strikeouts. If he can figure out his contact rate, watch out.
$1-$2 87 CJ Kayfus 1B/OF 418.9 1.10 Decent power but contact issues could prevent him from hitting his ceiling.
$1-$2 88 Chase DeLauter OF 493.4 1.10 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Cleveland. Decent tools across the board without a standout skill.
$1-$2 89 Owen Caissie OF 470.4 1.09 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Miami. Power should play if he can get his strikeout rate under control.
$1-$2 90 Justin Crawford OF 472.0 1.09 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in Philadelphia. Speedster like his dad and needs high BABIP to maintain production.
$1-$2 91 Sal Frelick OF 573.4 1.09 Improved his contact quality from poor to below average in 2025. Also improved contact rate and pull rate.
$1-$2 92 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF 287.2 1.08 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but could have an enticing power/patience profile if he’s healthy.
$1-$2 93 Heriberto Hernández OF 383.9 1.08 Decent debut in Miami in 2025. Got his strikeout rate sorted out in the big leagues but might only be the short side of a platoon.
$1-$2 94 Harrison Bader OF 501.5 1.08 Contact quality improved in 2025 but strikeout rate shot up too. Won’t have as nice a home ballpark in San Francisco.
$1-$2 95 Adolis García OF 606.8 1.08 Contact quality still looks good and his contact rate improved by 4 points in 2025. Power has slowly dried up anyway.
$1-$2 96 Nathan Lukes OF 382.9 1.08 Solid contact hitter with a bit of power. Might be squeezed out of a platoon role in a crowded Toronto outfield.
$1-$2 97 Carson Benge OF 452.3 1.07 Top prospect who should have a path to everyday at-bats in New York. Solid skills across the board, but doesn’t have an elite carrying tool
$1-$2 98 Nick Castellanos OF 575.2 1.07 Cast out of Philadelphia and landed in San Diego. He’s probably a part time player at this point, but still has some pop left in his bat.
$1-$2 99 Victor Robles OF 310.4 1.07 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025. He might have been pushed too quickly but had some spurts of success early in the year.
$1-$2 100 Andrew Benintendi OF 517.8 1.05 Started pulling the ball in the air a bunch and barrel rate improved by nearly 5 points in 2025.
$1-$2 101 Cedric Mullins OF 489.5 1.05 Contact quality and plate discipline have been slowly eroding over the last few years. Breakout year in 2021 was a long time ago.
$1-$2 102 Gavin Sheets 1B/OF 519.2 1.03 Improved contact quality with full-time at-bats in San Diego but is probably on the strong side of a platoon now.
$1-$2 103 Parker Meadows OF 415.7 1.03 After promising season in 2024, injuries cost him most of ’25. Probably on the strong side of a platoon.
$1-$2 104 Walker Jenkins OF 291.1 0.99 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but good approach and contact rate give him a high floor.
$1-$2 105 Cam Smith OF 444.9 0.99 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025 and now it doesn’t look like he has a spot in the starting lineup with Bregman in town.
$0-$1 106 Max Clark OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 107 Josue De Paula OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 108 Zyhir Hope OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 109 Lazaro Montes OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 110 Mike Sirota OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 111 Eduardo Quintero OF #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 112 Anthony Santander OF 635.0 1.18 Shoulder injury cost him nearly all of 2025. (Update: and now most of ’26 too.)
$0-$1 113 Justyn-Henry Malloy 1B/OF 344.7 1.11
$0-$1 114 Jake Bauers 1B/OF 319.6 1.10
$0-$1 115 Alex Call OF 320.7 1.10
$0-$1 116 Randal Grichuk OF 328.3 1.09
$0-$1 117 Will Benson OF 343.5 1.08
$0-$1 118 Jack Suwinski OF 346.7 1.08
$0-$1 119 Starling Marte OF 342.9 1.07
$0-$1 120 Lane Thomas OF 468.5 1.07
$0-$1 121 Mike Tauchman OF 391.9 1.06
$0-$1 122 James Outman OF 357.1 1.06
$0-$1 123 Jake Fraley OF 355.7 1.05
$0-$1 124 Matt Vierling OF 422.1 1.05
$0-$1 125 Carlos Cortes OF 270.4 1.05
$0-$1 126 Zac Veen OF 335.0 1.05
$0-$1 127 Wenceel Pérez OF 454.4 1.04
$0-$1 128 Jerar Encarnacion OF 228.0 1.04
$0-$1 129 Zach Cole OF 382.5 1.04
$0-$1 130 Michael Conforto OF 436.5 1.02
$0-$1 131 Jake Mangum OF 399.7 1.02
$0-$1 132 Alan Roden OF 285.9 1.02
$0-$1 133 Austin Martin OF 285.6 1.01
$0-$1 134 Jake Meyers OF 431.5 1.01
$0-$1 135 George Valera OF 357.1 1.01
$0-$1 136 Luis Matos OF 277.8 1.00
$0-$1 137 Chandler Simpson OF 447.7 1.00
$0-$1 138 Tommy Pham OF 412.2 0.99
$0-$1 139 Christopher Morel OF 414.7 0.99
$0-$1 140 Ryan Waldschmidt OF 423.9 0.97
$0-$1 141 Jordan Walker OF 432.7 0.96
$0-$1 142 Jhostynxon Garcia OF 381.8 0.94
$0 143 Max Kepler OF 423.5 1.06
$0 143 Andrew McCutchen OF 483.5 1.03
$0 144 Zach Dezenzo OF 179.2 1.03
$0 145 Joey Loperfido OF 332.8 1.03
$0 146 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF 336.9 1.02
$0 147 Denzel Clarke OF 320.4 1.01
$0 148 Tyler Black 1B/OF 381.6 1.01
$0 149 Mark Canha OF 321.6 1.00
$0 150 Sam Haggerty OF 229.9 1.00
$0 151 Griffin Conine OF 328.0 1.00
$0 152 Eli White OF 244.3 0.99
$0 153 Chas McCormick OF 245.6 0.99
$0 154 Eric Wagaman 1B/OF 415.3 0.98
$0 155 Heston Kjerstad OF 254.9 0.98
$0 156 Nolan Jones OF 344.6 0.97
$0 157 Jarred Kelenic OF 341.8 0.96
$0 158 MJ Melendez OF 392.8 0.96
$0 159 Will Brennan OF 352.5 0.96
$0 160 Connor Joe OF 338.2 0.95
$0 161 John Rave OF 292.3 0.95
$0 162 Hunter Renfroe OF 350.5 0.94
$0 163 Jonny DeLuca OF 270.6 0.94
$0 164 Drew Gilbert OF 299.5 0.94
$0 165 Jhonkensy Noel 1B/OF 296.9 0.94
$0 166 Dane Myers OF 271.6 0.93
$0 167 Kevin Alcántara OF 375.8 0.93
$0 168 Tirso Ornelas OF 324.5 0.93
$0 169 Alex Verdugo OF 390.3 0.93
$0 170 Alejandro Osuna OF 259.8 0.93
$0 171 Alek Thomas OF 377.9 0.92
$0 172 Blake Perkins OF 267.7 0.92
$0 173 Kameron Misner OF 285.7 0.92
$0 174 Tyrone Taylor OF 279.4 0.90
$0 175 Jose Siri OF 342.9 0.90
$0 176 Kyle Isbel OF 368.7 0.90
$0 177 Bryce Johnson OF 194.1 0.89
$0 178 Drew Waters OF 302.5 0.89
$0 179 Marco Luciano OF 364.2 0.88
$0 180 Myles Straw OF 277.0 0.87
$0 181 Victor Scott II OF 398.7 0.87
$0 182 Johan Rojas OF 250.1 0.86
$0 183 Dylan Carlson OF 230.4 0.85
$0 184 Jacob Young OF 340.1 0.84
$0 185 Robert Hassell III OF 279.1 0.83

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Middle Infield

by
February 19, 2026
Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

 

Chad started off the Ottoneu rankings push with his 4×4 middle infield rankings yesterday and I’m following up with my rankings for Ottoneu points leagues. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/19/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 11 players (green = moved up, red = moved down). Added Sung-Mun Song.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 50-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points MI Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$45-$54 1 Bobby Witt Jr. SS 1040.4 1.55 Clearly the best MI in baseball with just six hitters projected to outproduce him.
$36-$44 2 Ketel Marte 2B 857.8 1.47 The best 2B in baseball, trade rumors shouldn’t affect production.
$36-$44 3 Corey Seager SS 732.4 1.45 Productive when on the field but injury concerns will always be a factor.
$36-$44 4 Gunnar Henderson SS 941.6 1.43 Took a step back in 2025 but the ceiling is still very high.
$28-$35 5 Francisco Lindor SS 920.6 1.35 Consistent production means he’s a little overlooked in favor of flashier MI, but he’s been very good for four years straight.
$28-$35 6 Elly De La Cruz SS 885.2 1.34 Quad injury clearly held him back in 2025, but the ceiling is sky high. Considered ranking him a tier higher, but needs to prove it first.
$28-$35 7 Mookie Betts SS 800.3 1.31 Lost positional flexibility and spring illness negatively affected his entire 2025. Should bounce back in 2026, but how high?
$21-$27 8 Trea Turner SS 798.6 1.30 The power is probably on the downswing, but contact ability is still excellent. Steals are a bonus in FGpts.
$21-$27 9 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B/3B 721.2 1.29 Huge power explosion in first full season in New York raises his ceiling significantly.
$21-$27 10 Geraldo Perdomo SS 784.6 1.29 Big breakout in 2025 and all the underlying metrics look sustainable. Still worried about some power regression.
$21-$27 11 Zach Neto SS 747.8 1.27 The ceiling is a 30/30 season. Batted ball metrics all point to significant breakout potential.
$21-$27 12 Bo Bichette SS 746.4 1.27 Posted his best offensive season in 2025 after a down year in ’24. Any potential landing spot shouldn’t affect his production too much.
$15-$20 13 Jordan Westburg 2B/3B 593.6 1.23 Solid player across the board with no weaknesses, but no standout skills either. Needs to stay healthy.
$15-$20 14 Jose Altuve 2B/OF 745.4 1.21 Approaching the age cliff at 36 years old. Still possesses solid skills, but how long will they last?
$15-$20 15 Jeremy Peña SS 714.8 1.19 Came back down to earth after rib injury (143 wRC+ in 1H, 120 in 2H), but 2025 represented a big step forward for him.
$10-$14 16 Jacob Wilson SS 623.8 1.22 Idealized version of Luis Arraez with a touch more power. Still pretty BABIP dependent which leads to low lows.
$10-$14 17 Brandon Lowe 2B 615.9 1.21 Move to Pittsburgh shouldn’t hurt too much. 2025 was his first (mostly) healthy season since 2021.
$10-$14 18 Luke Keaschall 2B 512.7 1.20 Looked like a big leaguer in his cup of coffee in 2025. Batted ball peripherals are a bit concerning, but the contact skill is real.
$10-$14 19 Jorge Polanco 2B/3B 586.7 1.20 Swing change allowed him to thrive despite battling nagging injuries. Probably won’t be MI eligible next year.
$10-$14 20 CJ Abrams SS 730.9 1.19 Has developed into a good player, though the promise of a power breakout is probably fleeting unless he makes some serious contact quality gains.
$10-$14 21 Willy Adames SS 774.9 1.17 The power is real but playing in SF hurt his overall offensive production.
$10-$14 22 Brendan Donovan 2B/SS/OF 645.7 1.17 Solid player across the board with no weaknesses. Multi-positional eligibility helps his value.
$10-$14 23 Carlos Correa SS/3B 608.6 1.15 Has a history of quality production but health will determine if he can reach his previous highs.
$10-$14 24 Gleyber Torres 2B 734.2 1.15 Played through injury during the second half but still put up a solid season in Detroit.
$10-$14 25 Maikel Garcia 2B/SS/3B/OF 719.3 1.14 Huge breakout in 2025 doesn’t look like a mirage. Positional flexibility a big bonus.
$10-$14 26 Brice Turang 2B 706.7 1.14 Another big breakout from 2025 that looks like it’s going to stick. Might have the highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$6-$9 27 Colt Keith 1B/2B/3B 559.7 1.13 Quietly put together a great season in his second year in the big leagues. Projections really like him in 2026.
$6-$9 28 Trevor Story SS 643.4 1.13 First healthy year since 2021 led to significant improvements in contact quality. Poor plate discipline holds him back.
$6-$9 29 Luis García Jr. 2B 576.8 1.13 Still only 26, he’s improved signifcantly over the last few years. Added a bit of power in 2024, needs to put it all together to really take step forward.
$6-$9 30 Ezequiel Tovar SS 649.4 1.12 Extremely streaky hitter who had a big step backwards in 2025. Uncertain future, but Coors effect should be a benefit.
$6-$9 31 Nico Hoerner 2B 704.6 1.11 All hit, no power profile works when he’s making contact 90% of the time.
$6-$9 32 Xander Bogaerts SS 600.9 1.11 Probably won’t reach his previous highs, but still a useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$3-$5 33 Romy Gonzalez 1B/2B 396.9 1.21 Significant improvement in contact quality in 2025, but still might only be the short side of a 2B platoon.
$3-$5 34 Kevin McGonigle SS 360.2 1.19 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026.
$3-$5 35 Konnor Griffin SS 550.0 1.12 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026.
$3-$5 36 Brett Baty 2B/3B 461.9 1.12 Excellent 2H (135 wRC+) gives him something to build off of. Excellent contact quality but needs to elevate more often. Could have a path to playing time at DH in a crowded infield in New York.
$3-$5 37 Jeff McNeil 2B/OF 557.5 1.10 New ballpark in Sacramento should help, but health uncertain after offseason thoracic outlet surgery.
$3-$5 38 Bryson Stott 2B/SS 623.8 1.10 Swing change helped him improve contact quality in 2H. Breakout candidate if the swing change sticks.
$3-$5 39 Luis Arraez 1B/2B 696.9 1.10 Contact rate king, but too much weak contact to make the most of all those balls in play.
$3-$5 40 Colson Montgomery SS/3B 533.1 1.09 A lot of home runs make up for a really poor approach at the plate.
$3-$5 41 Dansby Swanson SS 663.9 1.08 Still has some pop but poor plate approach caps his ceiling as an average MI.
$3-$5 42 Zach McKinstry SS/3B/OF 472.7 1.08 Came back down to earth after All-Star break (132 wRC+ in 1H, 81 in 2H). He really leaned into his pull side to outperform xwOBA. Positional flexibility is an asset.
$3-$5 43 JJ Wetherholt 2B/SS 448.4 1.08 Probably closer to the big leagues than the other two top prospects in this tier but lower ceiling than Griffin and McGonigle.
$3-$5 44 Xavier Edwards 2B/SS 594.3 1.07 BABIP fell by 68 points and walk rate dropped by 3 points in 2025. High-contact approach will always be dependent on batted ball luck.
$3-$5 45 Ozzie Albies 2B 636.6 1.07 He’s fallen pretty far from his peak but still only 29 years old. The power has completely evaporated and it doesn’t look like it’s coming back.
$3-$5 46 Jackson Holliday 2B/SS 613.2 1.06 Slower development than expected from a former top prospect. Ceiling is still high and only 22 years old.
$3-$5 47 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS 594.0 1.05 Put together his best season in 2025 since breakout in 2021.
$3-$5 48 Marcus Semien 2B 657.1 1.04 Another veteran who has fallen far from his peak. Solid 2H gives some hope he’s still got something in the tank.
$1-$2 49 Kody Clemens 1B/2B/OF 332.3 1.07 Earned consistent playing time after joining Minnesota in late April and contact quality significantly improved. Doesn’t have a path to full-time at-bats right now, but should be first man off the bench.
$1-$2 50 Ceddanne Rafaela 2B/OF 602.8 1.07 Managed to cut strikeout rate by 6.5 points in 2025, but underlying plate discipline metrics aren’t pretty. Chases and whiffs too much to support a K% below 20%.
$1-$2 51 Caleb Durbin 2B/3B 553.9 1.07 High-contact, pull-oriented approach should play well in Boston.
$1-$2 52 Tyler Freeman 2B/OF 397.8 1.06 Claimed full-time at-bats by June but limped through the end of the season (66 wRC+ in 2H)
$1-$2 53 Marcelo Mayer 2B/SS/3B 424.9 1.06 Has had trouble staying healthy (wrist surgery derailed his rookie season) and might not start against LHP. Has the pedigree and skill set to be successful, but needs to put it all together first.
$1-$2 54 Willi Castro 2B/3B/OF 547.3 1.06 Absolutely tanked after joining Chicago last summer but he was a useful utility guy in Minnesota for three years. New home in Colorado should help.
$1-$2 55 Jonathan India 2B/3B/OF 587.9 1.05 Suffered through his worst season of his career in 2025. Too much elevated contact without enough quality to do real damage.
$1-$2 56 Gavin Lux 2B/3B/OF 487.8 1.05 Patient enough to have a solid floor but not enough power to have a high ceiling. Decent bat with flexible positiion eligibilty.
$1-$2 57 Josh Smith 1B/SS/3B/OF 541.8 1.05 Plate discipline improved in 2025 but contact quality slid backwards. Decent bat with flexible positiion eligibilty.
$1-$2 58 Matt McLain 2B 568.5 1.04 His breakout in 2023 seems like eons ago. Was the shoulder injury still affecting him or did we see the real McLain in ’25?
$1-$2 59 Jett Williams 2B/SS/OF 481.3 1.04 Trade to Milwaukee opens up a path to a major league debut in 2026. Power/speed combo is enticing, but questions about his hit tool remain.
$1-$2 60 J.P. Crawford SS 600.3 1.02 Excellent plate discipline gives him a solid floor but power dried up in 2025.
$1-$2 61 Masyn Winn SS 600.0 1.02 Played through knee injury in 2025 which could explain the dip in power output. Elite defense will keep him on the field, helping him accumulate points.
$1-$2 62 Kristian Campbell 1B/2B/OF 374.7 1.02 Disaster of a rookie campaign and now it doesn’t look like he has a path to a full-time role in the majors. Needs to bounce back in Triple-A first and force his way into the lineup.
$1-$2 63 Jordan Lawlar 2B/SS/3B 279.8 1.01 Arizona continues to find excuses to bury Lawlar on the depth chart. Now he’s learning center field this spring but still might be sharing time anyway.
$1-$2 64 Leo De Vries SS 427.4 0.93 Top prospect who might be a year or two away from making his debut. Very high ceiling, but still very young.
$1-$2 65 Colt Emerson SS 381.5 0.88 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Solid skills across the board, but doesn’t have the elite carrying tool like other top prospects ranked above.
$0-$1 66 Jesús Made SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 67 Sebastian Walcott SS 376.2 0.81
$0-$1 68 Luis Peña 2B/SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 69 Ethan Holliday Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 70 George Lombard Jr. SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 71 Eli Willits Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 72 Travis Bazzana 2B 306.8 0.95
$0-$1 73 Franklin Arias SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 74 Aidan Miller SS 450.3 0.98
$0-$1 75 Bryce Rainer SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 76 Aiva Arquette SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 77 Angel Genao SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 78 JoJo Parker Util #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 79 Arjun Nimmala SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 80 Kaelen Culpepper SS #N/A #N/A
$0-$1 81 Edmundo Sosa 2B/SS/3B 276.9 1.11
$0-$1 82 Alex Freeland 2B/SS/3B 475.6 1.09
$0-$1 83 Davis Schneider 2B/OF 376.6 1.08
$0-$1 84 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 2B/SS 419.5 1.07
$0-$1 85 Tyler Fitzgerald 2B 336.0 1.05
$0-$1 86 Brooks Baldwin 2B/SS/3B/OF 374.2 1.05
$0-$1 87 Adael Amador 2B 393.2 1.04
$0-$1 88 David Hamilton 2B/SS 270.3 1.03
$0-$1 89 Nolan Gorman 2B/3B 456.2 1.02
$0-$1 90 Weston Wilson 2B/OF 255.1 1.02
$0-$1 91 Jeremiah Jackson SS/3B/OF 341.9 1.02
$0-$1 92 Otto Lopez 2B/SS 548.4 1.01
$0-$1 93 Jose Caballero 2B/SS/3B/OF 376.0 1.01
$0-$1 94 Edouard Julien 1B/2B 336.6 1.01
$0-$1 95 Lenyn Sosa 1B/2B 453.0 1.00
$0-$1 96 Casey Schmitt 1B/2B/3B 357.4 1.00
$0-$1 97 Ernie Clement 1B/2B/SS/3B 536.2 1.00
$0-$1 98 Nick Gonzales 2B/SS 412.1 0.99
$0-$1 99 Vaughn Grissom 2B/SS 328.3 0.99
$0-$1 100 Ronny Mauricio 2B/3B 288.6 0.99
$0-$1 101 Tommy Edman 2B/3B/OF 417.3 0.99
$0-$1 102 Carson Williams SS 404.4 0.98
$0-$1 103 Andrés Giménez 2B/SS 517.4 0.98
$0-$1 104 Chase Meidroth 2B/SS 505.6 0.98
$0-$1 105 Anthony Volpe SS 557.7 0.97
$0-$1 106 Christian Moore 2B 385.6 0.97
$0-$1 107 Jared Triolo 1B/2B/SS/3B 439.4 0.97
$0-$1 108 Sung-Mun Song 송성문 2B/3B 450.8 0.95
$0-$1 109 Leo Jiménez 2B 230.9 0.94
$0-$1 110 Cole Young 2B/SS 358.4 0.92
$0 111 Jace Jung 2B/3B 399.2 1.04
$0 112 Dylan Moore 1B/2B/3B/OF 319.5 1.03
$0 113 Ramón Urías 2B/3B 336.5 1.02
$0 114 Miguel Rojas 2B/SS/3B 297.2 1.01
$0 115 José Fermín 2B 207.5 1.01
$0 116 Zack Gelof 2B 386.2 1.00
$0 117 Amed Rosario 2B/3B 313.1 0.98
$0 118 Blaze Alexander 2B/3B 350.7 0.97
$0 119 Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 2B/SS/OF 224.9 0.97
$0 120 José Tena 2B/3B 299.4 0.97
$0 121 Brendan Rodgers 2B 329.2 0.96
$0 122 Andy Ibáñez 2B/3B 243.7 0.96
$0 123 Max Muncy (ATH) 2B/SS/3B 329.5 0.96
$0 124 Brooks Lee 2B/SS/3B 472.1 0.95
$0 125 Joey Ortiz SS 480.1 0.94
$0 126 Thairo Estrada 2B 323.8 0.94
$0 127 Michael Massey 2B/OF 319.2 0.93
$0 128 Luis Rengifo 2B/3B/OF 415.9 0.93
$0 129 Luis Urías 2B/3B 265.6 0.93
$0 130 Leo Rivas 2B/SS 226.1 0.93
$0 131 Jon Berti 2B/3B 211.5 0.93
$0 132 Paul DeJong 2B/SS/3B 306.2 0.92
$0 133 Thomas Saggese 2B/SS/3B 353.3 0.92
$0 134 Christian Koss 2B/3B 208.8 0.92
$0 135 Nick Yorke 2B/OF 324.9 0.91
$0 136 Jorge Mateo 2B/SS/OF 188.6 0.91
$0 137 Nick Loftin 2B/3B/OF 233.1 0.91
$0 138 Darell Hernaiz 2B/SS/3B 314.5 0.91
$0 139 Mauricio Dubón 2B/SS/3B/OF 345.1 0.90
$0 140 Gabriel Arias 2B/SS 370.0 0.90
$0 141 Ezequiel Duran 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF 270.8 0.90
$0 142 Brayan Rocchio 2B/SS 412.2 0.90
$0 143 Curtis Mead 1B/2B/3B 258.6 0.90
$0 144 Kyle Farmer 1B/2B/SS/3B 239.3 0.89
$0 145 Daniel Schneemann 2B/SS/3B/OF 306.1 0.89
$0 146 Chris Taylor 2B/OF 216.6 0.88
$0 147 Max Schuemann 2B/SS/3B/OF 279.7 0.88
$0 148 Michael Helman SS/OF 215.6 0.87
$0 149 Jose Iglesias 2B/SS/3B 254.5 0.87
$0 150 Luisangel Acuña 2B 344.0 0.87
$0 151 Nasim Nuñez 2B/SS 267.9 0.86
$0 152 Tim Tawa 1B/2B/OF 260.2 0.86
$0 153 Enrique Hernández 1B/2B/3B/OF/RP 281.9 0.86
$0 154 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B/SS/3B 355.8 0.86
$0 155 Adam Frazier 2B/OF 330.1 0.86
$0 156 Javier Báez 2B/SS/3B/OF 329.0 0.86
$0 157 Angel Martínez 2B/OF 347.5 0.86
$0 158 Taylor Walls SS 255.4 0.82
$0 159 Ildemaro Vargas 1B/2B/3B 197.1 0.82
$0 160 Orlando Arcia 1B/2B/SS/3B 324.8 0.81
$0 161 Josh Rojas 2B/3B 274.4 0.81
$0 162 Trey Sweeney SS 266.9 0.81
$0 163 Santiago Espinal 2B/3B/OF 238.3 0.78
$0 164 Oswald Peraza 1B/2B/SS/3B 200.6 0.71

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Third Base

by
February 18, 2026
Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push continues this week with a look at the hot corner. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/18/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for five players (green = moved up, red = moved down). Added Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 15-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points 3B Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$36-$44 1 José Ramírez 3B 954.8 1.46 133 wRC+ in 2025 was a “down” year for him. Contact quality slipped a bit too.
$28-$35 2 Junior Caminero 3B 848.1 1.42 Blasted 45 home runs in his first full year in the big leagues. Move back to Tropicana Field won’t help but has enough power that it won’t matter much.
$21-$27 3 Max Muncy (LAD) 3B 528.6 1.31 Muncy’s wRC+ after he started wearing glasses on April 30: 166. Contact quality improved and strikeout rate dropped by 5 points.
$21-$27 4 Austin Riley 3B 713.2 1.28 Four straight years of declining production is a big concern. Contact quality looks fantastic but plate discipline deteriorated in 2025.
$21-$27 5 Manny Machado 3B 803.1 1.26 A useful accumulator with good skills across the board. Always plays — two seasons in his entire career w/ less than 150 games played.
$15-$20 6 Munetaka Murakami 3B 710.7 1.29 The power is definitely real but there’s huge risk in his contact rate. The projections look decent, but the adjustment period could hurt.
$15-$20 7 Isaac Paredes 3B 612.8 1.22 Hamstring injury derailed a very good first year in Houston. Some concerns about playing time in a crowded lineup.
$15-$20 8 Matt Chapman 3B 719.7 1.21 Pretty reliable contributor across the board. No weaknesses, but no standout skills either.
$15-$20 9 Alex Bregman 3B 726.6 1.20 New home in Wrigley Field shouldn’t hurt his pull-heavy approach too much and he had his best contact quality of his career in 2025.
$10-$14 10 Kazuma Okamoto 1B/3B 636.2 1.22 Much more stable profile than Murakami without the high ceiling. Will probably end up getting 3B eligibility.
$10-$14 11 Eugenio Suárez 3B 750.7 1.20 Couldn’t keep his offensive resurgence going after re-joining Seattle. Ceiling might come down to where he signs.
$6-$9 12 Sal Stewart 1B/3B 570.8 1.19 Solid debut late last year with impressive contact quality. Needs to earn a spot in a crowded lineup.
$6-$9 13 Alec Bohm 1B/3B 645.6 1.16 Career-high contact rate in 2025, but still pounds the ball into the ground too often.
$6-$9 14 Mark Vientos 3B 526.3 1.16 Couldn’t repeat his breakout from 2024, rebounded a bit in 2H ’25. Contact quality looks good and strikeout rate dropped 5 points.
$6-$9 15 Addison Barger 3B/OF 531.6 1.15 1H breakout (125 wRC+) slowed way down in 2H (87) and then starred in the postseason (188). Great contact quality, needs to hone plate approach.
$3-$5 16 Yoán Moncada 3B 393.3 1.13 Big contact quality improvements in 2025 came at the cost of a slightly lower contact rate. The big question is if he can stay healthy.
$3-$5 17 Royce Lewis 3B 490.2 1.12 Is he healthy? If he is, is he the guy who posted a 152 wRC+ in 2023 or an 85 wRC+ in ’25?
$3-$5 18 Noelvi Marte 3B/OF 475.3 1.09 Looked pretty good after returning from PED suspension in July. Plate approach leaves a lot to be desired.
$3-$5 19 Miguel Vargas 1B/3B 558.6 1.07 Earned a shot at full-time at-bats and delivered a solid season with a good plate approach and decent contact quality.
$1-$2 20 Miguel Andujar 3B/OF 399.6 1.13 What a weird career arc. Huge 2H in 2025 was likely BABIP fueled (.413 BABIP w/ Cincinnati) but that comes with his aggressive, contact-oriented approach.
$1-$2 21 Matt Shaw 3B 438.1 1.08 Up-and-down rookie season in 2025 and now it doesn’t look like he has a spot in the starting lineup with Bregman in town.
$1-$2 22 Otto Kemp 1B/3B/OF 365.8 1.08 Really solid contact quality, really poor plate approach. Also on the short side of a platoon in Philadelphia.
$1-$2 23 Connor Norby 3B 439.4 1.03 Injuries took a toll on him in 2025, but had a really intriguing debut back in ’24. Contact rate needs to improve to maintain any sort of success.
$1-$2 24 Nolan Arenado 3B 538.6 1.01 Offense cratered in 2025. Too much elevated contact without enough quality to do real damage. Maybe we’ll see a dead cat bounce now that he’s been traded to Arizona.
$1-$2 25 Josh Jung 3B 485.0 1.01 Injuries have derailed what had been a promising start to his career. Contact quality improved in 2025 and the contact rate jumped nearly 6 points, but still too aggressive with his approach.
$1-$2 26 Ryan McMahon 3B 560.0 1.01 Contact quality has been excellent but it’s really hard to survive with a strikeout rate over 30%. Probably on the strong side of a platoon in New York.
$0-$1 27 Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B 272.4 1.03
$0-$1 28 Nate Eaton 3B/OF 297.6 1.02
$0 29 Justin Turner 1B/3B 405.4 1.06
$0 30 Kyle Karros 3B 315.5 0.98
$0 31 Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B 351.6 0.95
$0 32 Will Wagner 1B/3B 221.0 0.94
$0 33 Jose Miranda 3B 346.7 0.94
$0 34 Abraham Toro 1B/3B 325.5 0.92
$0 35 Oswaldo Cabrera 3B 220.4 0.89
$0 36 Brady House 3B 393.8 0.88
$0 37 Gio Urshela 3B 258.1 0.88
$0 38 Deyvison De Los Santos 1B/3B 336.0 0.87
$0 39 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B 443.1 0.85
$0 40 Nacho Alvarez Jr. 3B 258.4 0.84
$0 41 Ben Williamson 3B 314.0 0.83

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: First Base

by
February 17, 2026
Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push continues with a look at the final position player group: first basemen. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/17/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for seven players (green = moved up, red = moved down). Removed Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, and Sung Mun Song (moved to 3B or MI list).

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 30-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. I’m also including Util-only players in this list since there’s no good home for them elsewhere. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points 1B Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Shohei Ohtani Util/SP 1306.1 1.89 This ranking only reflects what he does as a hitter. Tack on the $25-$30 in value he provides as a pitcher and a $100 salary for Ohtani isn’t out of the question.
$36-$44 2 Nick Kurtz 1B 850.6 1.57 Absolutely smashed the ball during his ROY award-winning campaign. Projects as the top 1B, though there’s still some risk the league will adjust to him.
$36-$44 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B 1019.7 1.53 Power output has waxed and waned throughout his career, but the contact quality has always stayed elite. Even in a down power season, he was the 5th most valuable 1B in 2025.
$36-$44 4 Bryce Harper 1B 875.6 1.46 Some plate discipline yellow flags — high chase rate, low zone rate — but still has excellent contact quality.
$36-$44 5 Freddie Freeman 1B 918.6 1.45 Might be showing some signs of aging; strikeout rate jumped 5 points thanks to big spike in chase and whiff rates.
$28-$35 6 Pete Alonso 1B 950.1 1.41 Posted his best contact quality numbers of his career in 2025 and move to Camden Yards shouldn’t hurt too much.
$28-$35 7 Rafael Devers 1B 917.6 1.38 Struggled a bit once he joined San Francisco — strikeout rate jumped 7 points — but his contact quality remains elite.
$28-$35 8 Matt Olson 1B 940.1 1.37 Nice bounce back in 2025 after a down season in ’24. Plays every single day.
$21-$27 9 Michael Busch 1B 758.1 1.34 Followed up breakout 2024 with an even better season in ’25. Contact quality improved dramatically, though platoon split still remains wide.
$15-$20 10 Yandy Díaz 1B 824.0 1.33 Really took advantage of Steinbrenner Field in 2025 (.389 wOBA at home); return to Tropicana Field could hurt a bit. Fantastic plate approach gives him a high floor.
$15-$20 11 Josh Naylor 1B 762.2 1.29 Doesn’t have the contact quality heights of others in this tier, but solid approach at the plate gives him a high floor.
$15-$20 12 Jonathan Aranda 1B 589.4 1.27 Big breakout in 2025, though the .409 BABIP will certainly come down.
$15-$20 13 Willson Contreras 1B 645.1 1.26 Dip in walk rate a little concerning but the contact quality remained excellent. The move to Fenway Park definitely helps.
$15-$20 14 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 767.1 1.26 Similar to Naylor with a touch more power — improved barrel rate by 3.7 points in 2025.
$10-$14 15 Marcell Ozuna Util 765.6 1.34 Contact quality dipped significantly in 2025, offset a little by 5 point increase in walk rate.
$6-$9 16 Triston Casas 1B 335.0 1.24 Coming off a major knee surgery and was really bad in 2025 before the injury. He’ll have to battle for at-bats with Contreras manning 1B.
$6-$9 17 Spencer Horwitz 1B 543.2 1.21 Lost MI eligibility but still productive enough to be valuable at 1B. Good plate approach but poor batted ball quality holds him back.
$6-$9 18 Spencer Torkelson 1B 727.5 1.20 Finally broke out by cutting groundball rate to second lowest in the majors. Improved plate discipline too.
$6-$9 19 Kyle Manzardo 1B 591.5 1.19 Up-and-down year in 2025 but took small steps forward. Increased walk rate and slightly improved contact quality. Platoon split “only” 50 points of wOBA.
$3-$5 20 Joc Pederson Util 459.6 1.21 Went through big swings in production in 2025 and injuries limited his playing time. DH-only plus big platoon split limits his value.
$3-$5 21 Jake Burger 1B 572.8 1.14 Struggled in his first season in Texas, was demoted in May, and injured his wrist in September. Contact quality didn’t waver.
$3-$5 22 Christian Walker 1B 675.1 1.14 Plate discipline took a big step backward in his first year in Houston but contact quality remained solid.
$3-$5 23 Nolan Schanuel 1B 642.4 1.13 Great plate discipline gives him a high floor. Finally started elevating the ball in 2025 but contact quality still poor.
$3-$5 24 Pavin Smith 1B 383.3 1.12 Strikeout rate blew past 30% in 2025 but walk rate and contact quality still good. Big platoon split limits value.
$3-$5 25 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 609.4 1.12 Started off strong but fell apart by June. Power evaporated and it feels like we’ve seen the last of him as a productive hitter.
$3-$5 26 Josh Bell 1B 604.5 1.12 Big contact quality gains in 2025 but wOBA fell well short of his xwOBA.
$1-$2 27 Coby Mayo 1B 422.6 1.11 Difficult path to playing time on a crowded Baltimore roster and plenty of questions about his hit tool.
$1-$2 28 Andrew Vaughn 1B 578.8 1.08 Turned his career around after trade to Milwaukee. Chase rate and whiff rate greatly improved during the second half of the season. Needs to prove it.
$1-$2 29 Bryce Eldridge 1B 453.8 1.02 Massive power ceiling could be held back by hit tool questions. Should have an opportunity as a full-time DH in 2026.
$0-$1 30 Rhys Hoskins 1B 472.1 1.11
$0-$1 31 Nathaniel Lowe 1B 597.8 1.09
$0-$1 32 Ryan Mountcastle 1B 418.2 1.08
$0-$1 33 Tyler Locklear 1B 382.5 1.07
$0-$1 34 David Fry Util 277.8 1.05
$0-$1 35 Charlie Condon 1B 310.2 0.99
$0-$1 36 Adrian Del Castillo Util 275.8 0.98
$0 37 Xavier Isaac Util #N/A #N/A
$0 38 Jesse Winker Util 406.4 1.13
$0 39 Andrés Chaparro 1B 322.2 1.06
$0 40 Michael Toglia 1B 414.0 1.01
$0 41 Carlos Santana 1B 460.3 0.99
$0 42 Wilmer Flores 1B 362.9 0.99
$0 43 Ty France 1B 467.4 0.99
$0 44 Richie Palacios Util 265.1 0.95
$0 45 Anthony Rendon Util 166.7 0.81

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Relief Pitchers

by
February 16, 2026
Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push finally wraps up with a look at relief pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/16/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Removed Andrew Saalfrank (shoulder surgery), added Kade Strowd, updated tier placement for Kevin Ginkel.

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Here are my general thoughts about relief pitchers in Ottoneu points and 4×4 leagues: underlying skills matter a lot more than a pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order. Chasing saves isn’t as important as it might be in 5×5 leagues where saves make up 20% of the pitching categories. Teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations which means if you target relievers with strong skills, saves and holds (and the bonus points associated with them in Ottoneu points leagues) will follow.

Relievers are also the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.

Ottoneu Points RP Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Projected Role Projected Pts Pts/IP
$21-$27 1 Mason Miller CL 614.8 9.66
$15-$20 2 Aroldis Chapman CL 547.5 9.22
$15-$20 3 Edwin Díaz CL 590.2 9.14
$15-$20 4 Cade Smith CL 643.9 9.04
$15-$20 5 Andrés Muñoz CL 563.3 8.96
$15-$20 6 Jhoan Duran CL 612.2 8.84
$10-$14 7 Devin Williams CL 536.5 8.66
$10-$14 8 Abner Uribe CL 618.1 8.56
$10-$14 9 Josh Hader CL 507.6 8.50
$10-$14 10 David Bednar CL 537.7 8.48
$6-$9 11 Ryan Walker CL 498.0 7.95
$6-$9 12 Daniel Palencia CL 481.4 7.91
$6-$9 13 Riley O’Brien CL? 447.5 7.83
$6-$9 14 Pete Fairbanks CL 468.0 7.83
$6-$9 15 Raisel Iglesias CL 501.6 7.77
$6-$9 16 Dennis Santana CL 526.7 7.76
$6-$9 17 Seranthony Domínguez CL 471.5 7.66
$6-$9 18 Emilio Pagán CL 493.8 7.58
$6-$9 19 Robert Garcia CL 475.3 7.56
$6-$9 20 Bryan Abreu SU8 524.7 7.55
$6-$9 21 Ryan Helsley CL 449.4 7.47
$6-$9 22 Gabe Speier MID 433.2 7.44
$6-$9 23 Jeff Hoffman CL 477.3 7.41
$6-$9 24 Griffin Jax CL? 489.8 7.37
$6-$9 25 Garrett Whitlock SU8 516.4 7.28
$6-$9 26 Adrian Morejon SU8 504.0 7.25
$3-$5 27 Clayton Beeter CL? 441.1 7.52
$3-$5 28 Trevor Megill SU8 409.4 7.19
$3-$5 29 Carlos Estévez CL 458.1 7.19
$3-$5 30 Grant Taylor SU8 459.6 7.10
$3-$5 31 Matt Brash SU8 404.6 7.06
$3-$5 32 Fernando Cruz SU7 385.7 7.04
$3-$5 33 Garrett Cleavinger CL? 441.2 7.04
$3-$5 34 Jeremiah Estrada SU7 493.7 7.01
$3-$5 35 Phil Maton SU8 433.2 6.99
$3-$5 36 Robert Suarez SU8 454.7 6.92
$3-$5 37 Will Vest SU8 465.6 6.90
$1-$2 38 Robert Stephenson CL? 398.9 7.39
$1-$2 39 Kevin Ginkel CL? 375.4 7.31
$1-$2 40 Justin Topa CL? 425.2 7.16
$1-$2 41 Hogan Harris CL? 507.1 6.94
$1-$2 42 Hunter Harvey SU7 349.5 6.90
$1-$2 43 Victor Vodnik CL 403.9 6.89
$1-$2 44 Shawn Armstrong SU7 467.4 6.84
$1-$2 45 Brendon Little MID 416.1 6.79
$1-$2 46 Alex Vesia SU7 409.2 6.76
$1-$2 47 Matt Svanson SU7 439.8 6.75
$1-$2 48 Camilo Doval SU8 435.6 6.75
$1-$2 49 Jose A. Ferrer SU7 487.7 6.74
$1-$2 50 Aaron Ashby MID 469.2 6.74
$1-$2 51 Matt Strahm SU7 423.3 6.70
$1-$2 52 José Alvarado SU8 352.8 6.64
$1-$2 53 A.J. Minter SU7 360.0 6.61
$1-$2 54 Eduard Bazardo MID 471.1 6.59
$1-$2 55 Edwin Uceta CL? 475.1 6.58
$1-$2 56 Gregory Soto SU8 390.8 6.58
$1-$2 57 Louis Varland MID 534.4 6.55
$1-$2 58 Jared Koenig SU7 438.5 6.54
$1-$2 59 Orion Kerkering MID 404.2 6.53
$1-$2 60 Yimi García SU8 321.9 6.52
$1-$2 61 JoJo Romero CL? 401.2 6.50
$1-$2 62 Andrew Kittredge SU8 384.9 6.46
$1-$2 63 Erik Sabrowski MID 327.3 6.46
$1-$2 64 Brad Keller SU7 460.1 6.40
$1-$2 65 Chris Martin SU8 304.9 6.36
$1-$2 66 Kyle Finnegan SU7 377.0 6.33
$1-$2 67 Tanner Scott SU8 380.0 6.25
$1-$2 68 Luke Weaver SU8 414.9 6.22
$1-$2 69 Kenley Jansen CL? 353.0 6.15
$1-$2 70 Hunter Gaddis SU8 430.9 6.14
$0-$1 71 Randy Rodríguez INJ 375.1 7.44
$0-$1 72 Félix Bautista INJ 227.5 7.40
$0-$1 73 Ronny Henriquez INJ 519.5 7.05
$0-$1 74 Justin Martinez INJ 316.2 7.05
$0-$1 75 Taylor Rogers CL? 385.8 7.03
$0-$1 76 Jason Adam INJ 384.5 6.81
$0-$1 77 Evan Phillips INJ 266.8 6.66
$0-$1 78 Ben Joyce INJ 258.9 6.64
$0-$1 79 Aaron Bummer MID 369.0 6.61
$0-$1 80 Graham Ashcraft SU7 422.0 6.46
$0-$1 81 Joe Jimenez INJ 279.8 6.40
$0-$1 82 Anthony Bender MID 351.0 6.40
$0-$1 83 Lucas Erceg SU8 385.3 6.38
$0-$1 84 Caleb Ferguson MID 383.2 6.37
$0-$1 85 Tyler Kinley MID 414.3 6.33
$0-$1 86 Brant Hurter MID 432.0 6.31
$0-$1 87 Cole Sands CL? 438.9 6.31
$0-$1 88 Bryan King SU7 412.6 6.26
$0-$1 89 Tyler Rogers SU7 454.2 6.18
$0 91 Tony Santillan SU8 431.8 6.17
$0 92 Justin Slaten SU7 312.7 6.13
$0 93 Huascar Brazobán MID 361.1 6.05
$0 94 Nick Mears MID 343.5 6.03
$0 95 José Buttó MID 392.3 6.01
$0 96 Kirby Yates CL? 295.9 6.00
$0 97 Jordan Leasure SU7 376.8 5.98
$0 98 Justin Sterner CL? 381.7 5.98
$0 99 Mark Leiter Jr. CL? 336.4 5.96
$0 100 Juan Mejia SU7 381.9 5.95
$0 101 Kade Strowd SU7 311.2 5.94
$0 102 Ryan Thompson SU8 315.6 5.93
$0 103 Calvin Faucher SU8 359.7 5.92
$0 104 Brenan Hanifee MID 361.6 5.91
$0 105 Isaac Mattson SU7 345.5 5.91
$0 106 Jimmy Herget SU8 464.4 5.84
$0 107 Yennier Cano ?? 327.4 5.84
$0 108 Tyler Holton MID 439.6 5.81
$0 109 Cole Winn SU7 354.3 5.79
$0 110 Brock Burke MID 354.3 5.74
$0 111 Joel Peguero SU8 312.7 5.66
$0 112 Keegan Akin SU7 364.3 5.64
$0 113 Michael Kopech INJ 357.7 5.61
$0 114 Porter Hodge ?? 277.4 5.57
$0 115 Jordan Romano MID 283.1 5.49
$0 116 Tommy Kahnle ?? 330.5 5.48

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Catcher

by
February 13, 2026
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

With the two largest position groups out of the way, the Ottoneu rankings push takes a breather with the smallest position group to finish this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Changelog

  • 2/13/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for eight players (green = moved up, red = moved down). Removed

 

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 20-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points C Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$28-$35 1 Cal Raleigh C 919.6 1.43 Probably won’t hit 60 home runs again but is clearly the best catcher in baseball. Huge power supported by real plate discipline gains in 2025.
$15-$20 2 Will Smith C 636.4 1.32 2025 was his best offensive season since ’20 but it might have been BABIP driven. He did have career-high walk rate and contact quality looked a lot like it did back in ’20.
$15-$20 3 Ben Rice C/1B 644.7 1.31 Huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as 1B in New York, but will probably loose C eligibility in 2027.
$15-$20 4 Hunter Goodman C 678.6 1.31 This tier is full of breakout catchers! I like his foundation a little less than the other players in this tier — poor plate approach gives him a low floor.
$15-$20 5 Shea Langeliers C 678.0 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Cut strikeout rate by 7.5 points and absolutely mashed in 2H (176 wRC+).
$15-$20 6 Iván Herrera C 612.7 1.31 Another huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as DH in St. Louis and could retain C eligibility for 2027.
$15-$20 7 William Contreras C 802.3 1.27 Played through a fractured finger in 2025 and his power output dropped. Should bounce back if healthy.
$10-$14 8 Drake Baldwin C 602.6 1.27 Very impressive debut in 2025 that earned him ROY honors. Good plate approach and solid contact quality give him a high floor.
$6-$9 9 Gabriel Moreno C 446.1 1.19 Has dealt with a number of injuries over the last few years, but has been productive when healthy.
$6-$9 10 Samuel Basallo C/1B 462.0 1.18 Struggled a bit in his brief call up in 2025 but is still just 21. Position is a question mark but should force his way into the lineup.
$6-$9 11 Alejandro Kirk C 543.4 1.18 High contact approach might be a little BABIP dependent, but improved contact quality significantly in 2025.
$6-$9 12 Francisco Alvarez C 451.3 1.18 Dramatically improved contact quality after returning from midseason demotion but hand injuries derailed his progress.
$6-$9 13 Salvador Perez C/1B 695.4 1.14 The home runs are nice, but that’s about it. He gets regular at-bats whether its at C, 1B, or DH.
$6-$9 14 Adley Rutschman C 613.7 1.13 He’s been below replacement level for a season and a half now but the promise of a huge bounce back is still present.
$3-$5 15 Ryan Jeffers C 525.3 1.14 Power disappeared in 2025 but plate discipline improved.
$3-$5 16 Yainer Diaz C 611.7 1.13 Two straight years of declining production. Aggressive approach means he’s BABIP dependent and power has slid backwards.
$3-$5 17 Tyler Stephenson C 475.1 1.11 Big improvement in contact quality but strikeout rate jumped over 30%.
$3-$5 18 Carter Jensen C 472.0 1.10 Really impressive late season debut in 2025. Playing time in question, but should take over full-time catching duties soon.
$3-$5 19 Agustín Ramírez C 593.6 1.09 Another young catcher whose debut season in 2025 was a little rocky. Projections think he’ll take a step forward.
$3-$5 20 Kyle Teel C 456.6 1.09 Solid debut season in 2025. Will likely fall back to earth a bit when his BABIP regresses, but solid skills to build on.
$1-$2 21 Austin Wells C 465.2 1.08 Should be a good source of power but plate discipline took a big step backwards in 2025.
$1-$2 22 J.T. Realmuto C 522.0 1.08 He’s back in Philadelphia but 2025 was his worst season since his rookie year in 2015. How much longer can he catch 100+ games?
$1-$2 23 Dillon Dingler C 443.8 1.08 Pretty significant breakout in his first full season in the big leagues. Good contact quality but might be a little too dependent on BABIP.
$1-$2 24 Dalton Rushing C 271.2 1.08 Playing time blocked behind Will Smith, but could force his way into at-bats in the outfield mix or as backup catcher.
$1-$2 25 Moisés Ballesteros C 451.7 1.07 Top prospect should get plenty of time as DH in 2026. Promising late season debut, but contact quality is a little lacking.
$1-$2 26 Victor Caratini C/1B 362.0 1.06 Should see plenty of playing time as DH and backup catcher. Decent underlying skills and improved strikeout rate by 2.5 points in 2025.
$0-$1 27 Josue Briceño C N/A N/A
$0-$1 28 Sean Murphy C 373.5 1.09
$0-$1 29 Gary Sánchez C 274.8 1.08
$0-$1 30 Carson Kelly C 387.1 1.07
$0-$1 31 Danny Jansen C 336.4 1.03
$0-$1 32 Joey Bart C 323.4 1.03
$0-$1 33 Luis Campusano C 351.6 1.02
$0-$1 34 Carlos Narváez C 417.8 1.01
$0-$1 35 Kyle Higashioka C 273.6 0.99
$0-$1 36 Edgar Quero C 415.2 0.98
$0-$1 37 Logan O’Hoppe C 434.4 0.98
$0-$1 38 Harry Ford C 363.1 0.97
$0-$1 39 Bo Naylor C 398.6 0.97
$0 40 Ethan Salas C N/A N/A
$0 41 Connor Wong C 324.4 0.99
$0 42 Liam Hicks C/1B 329.3 0.99
$0 43 Miguel Amaya C 254.1 0.96
$0 44 Endy Rodriguez C/1B 247.8 0.95
$0 45 Travis d’Arnaud C 238.1 0.93
$0 46 James McCann C 186.3 0.93
$0 47 Mitch Garver C 282.4 0.92
$0 48 Hunter Feduccia C 250.8 0.90
$0 49 Freddy Fermin C 335.3 0.89
$0 50 Jake Rogers C 217.4 0.88
$0 51 Keibert Ruiz C 328.5 0.86
$0 52 Elias Díaz C 263.2 0.86
$0 53 Pedro Pagés C 290.0 0.86
$0 54 Rafael Marchán C 118.7 0.85
$0 55 Reese McGuire C 153.5 0.85
$0 56 Jose Trevino C 214.6 0.82
$0 57 Patrick Bailey C 362.5 0.82
$0 58 Henry Davis C 225.5 0.81
$0 59 Jonah Heim C 326.7 0.81
$0 60 Jacob Stallings C 161.9 0.80
$0 61 Nick Fortes C 222.2 0.78
$0 62 Korey Lee C 231.0 0.75
$0 63 Ben Rortvedt C 158.8 0.70
$0 64 Christian Vázquez C 171.6 0.69

Ottoneu 2026 Keeper Deadline in Review

by
February 3, 2026
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Last Saturday night was the Ottoneu keeper deadline. If you’re like me, you might have spent too much time the last few months weighing which players deserve a spot on your 2026 roster. A handful of last minute offseason trades ahead of the deadline got things in order and then came the chopping block. For better or worse, everything is locked in until draft day arrives for your league.

Before looking ahead towards your draft this spring, let’s take a look at what happened at the keeper deadline. There isn’t much immediately actionable information here since rosters are locked until your league’s draft, but I found it interesting to dig into the players who were cut the most and how average salaries have changed over the course of the offseason.

Most Cut Players — All Ottoneu Leagues
Player Post-Arb Roster% Post Cut Roster% Roster% Delta Post-Arb Avg Salary Post-Cut Avg Salary Avg Salary Delta
Ronny Henriquez 91.7% 12.7% -79.1% $4.82 $3.98 -$0.84
Mookie Betts 89.0% 18.1% -70.9% $56.86 $48.40 -$8.46
Lars Nootbaar 87.2% 16.6% -70.6% $10.92 $10.11 -$0.81
Triston Casas 86.9% 17.5% -69.4% $9.05 $8.38 -$0.67
Shota Imanaga 91.1% 22.9% -68.2% $22.77 $21.58 -$1.19
Austin Hays 90.8% 22.9% -67.9% $4.50 $4.00 -$0.50
Tanner Scott 84.4% 16.6% -67.8% $8.46 $7.80 -$0.66
Ha-seong Kim 78.3% 11.7% -66.5% $5.12 $4.49 -$0.63
Marcell Ozuna 78.3% 12.0% -66.2% $11.61 $10.30 -$1.31
Christian Walker 89.0% 22.9% -66.1% $12.31 $10.22 -$2.09

There aren’t a lot of surprises on the list of most cut players. It’s mostly populated with guys who were either injured in 2025 or who struggled mightily last season. When looking ahead towards this season, the uncertainty surrounding all of these players made them all easy cuts at the deadline.

A spring illness caused Mookie Betts to lose nearly 20 pounds in two weeks and forced him to miss the Dodgers’ two-game series in Japan to start the season. His conditioning never really caught up once the season got underway and he struggled for nearly the entire season. He did finish on a high note, posting a 128 wRC+ in August and September, but the early season damage was already done. As one of the most expensive players in the Ottoneu universe, a lost season from Betts was bound to have repercussions, and he wound up being the second most cut player at the deadline. Still, if we chalk up his struggles in 2025 to his spring illness, then a bounce back season in ‘26 is more than likely. The projections see a wide range of potential outcomes — ZiPS is projecting him at a 131 wRC+ while OOPSY is all the way down at 118 — but his history of production is good enough that you should expect to pay top dollar for him in the draft. His average salary after the cut deadline is nearly $50, though I’d expect that to fall a bit once he’s drafted in all those leagues where he’s available.

I really want to believe in Lars Nootbaar’s skillset. He’s got an excellent approach at the plate and his contact quality is fantastic. He lowered his groundball rate by nearly 15 points in 2025, but despite a hard hit rate of 50%, he didn’t see a big improvement in results on contact. A lot of that added air contact was hit at too high launch angles or hit to the opposite field. In other words, despite embracing “elevate and celebrate,” all that elevated contact wasn’t optimized for damage. To make matters worse, he played through a rib injury for some of the season and then had surgery to correct issues in both of his heels this offseason. I want to believe in Nootbaar, but between the injury issues and the difficulty translating his contact quality into real results, I’m not sold on a bounce back from him.

After a very successful first year in the US, Shota Imanaga took a pretty significant step back in his second season in Chicago. The twin culprits were a strikeout rate that dropped by nearly five points and a groundball rate that fell eight points. With all that extra elevated contact allowed, he saw a corresponding jump in home runs allowed that shot his FIP up by more than a run. Homers are a death knell for any pitcher in Ottoneu and so it’s no surprise to see Imanaga on the chopping block. I think it’s probably reasonable to expect a bit of a bounce back — his SIERA and xFIP were both well below his actual FIP in 2025 — but getting back to his outstanding ‘24 season is probably out of the question. As a fly ball heavy pitcher, his success will wax and wane based on his home run rate which gives him a pretty volatile profile.

Largest Drop in Average Salary — All Ottoneu Leagues
Player Roster% Delta Post-Arb Avg Salary Post Cut Avg Salary Avg Salary Delta
Mookie Betts -70.9% $56.86 $48.40 -$8.46
Ozzie Albies -61.9% $21.07 $15.08 -$5.99
Aaron Nola -58.5% $19.72 $14.83 -$4.89
Zack Wheeler -49.2% $31.61 $27.25 -$4.36
Jose Altuve -61.6% $28.89 $24.76 -$4.13
Mike Trout -58.3% $30.92 $26.81 -$4.11
Freddie Freeman -55.0% $42.93 $38.85 -$4.08
Austin Riley -45.7% $33.53 $29.93 -$3.60
Marcus Semien -35.8% $16.03 $12.44 -$3.59
Zac Gallen -58.6% $19.81 $16.25 -$3.56

The table above lists players who saw their average salaries drop the most after the cut deadline. As you’d expect, there are a bunch of aging stars and once-great players who suffered a sudden dip in performance in 2025.

Man, what happened to Ozzie Albies? You could chalk up his power outage in 2024 to a broken wrist suffered in July of that season. But then he didn’t bounce back in ‘25; his ISO dropped to a career-low .124 and he blasted only 16 home runs. Even though we only have limited bat speed data, Albies’s average bat speed dropped a full tick from 2023 to ‘24 and it didn’t bounce back last year when he was supposedly healthy. His contact quality has never really been all that great but he made the most of it every season until last year. He’s still only 29 years old, but unless he rediscovers an extra gear with his bat speed, I’m afraid his best days are already in the past.

Oh look, another Braves hitter who really struggled last year. At least with Austin Riley, you can point to a hand injury in 2024 and three separate core injuries in ‘25 to explain his struggles. Then again, his production at the plate had already started to decline slightly in 2023, and really reached fever pitch when his plate discipline started slipping in ‘24. It deteriorated further in 2025 when he got more aggressive at the plate while running a slightly higher whiff rate. The good news is that his contact quality was still elite which means the only thing he needs to work on is his approach. Of all the guys on the two lists in this article, Riley is the one I’m most confident in predicting a bounce back this year.

Finally, here’s a long list of players cut in more than 50% of all Ottoneu leagues.

Players Cut in More than 50% of Ottoneu Leagues
Player Post-Arb Roster% Post-Cut Roster% Roster% Delta
Ronny Henriquez 91.7% 12.7% -79.1%
Mookie Betts 89.0% 18.1% -70.9%
Lars Nootbaar 87.2% 16.6% -70.6%
Triston Casas 86.9% 17.5% -69.4%
Shota Imanaga 91.1% 22.9% -68.2%
Austin Hays 90.8% 22.9% -67.9%
Tanner Scott 84.4% 16.6% -67.8%
Ha-seong Kim 78.3% 11.7% -66.5%
Marcell Ozuna 78.3% 12.0% -66.2%
Christian Walker 89.0% 22.9% -66.1%
Coby Mayo 92.4% 28.0% -64.3%
Jesús Sánchez 84.1% 19.9% -64.2%
Luis Arraez 86.5% 22.6% -64.0%
Trevor Larnach 82.6% 19.0% -63.6%
Lucas Giolito 89.9% 26.8% -63.1%
Nick Castellanos 71.3% 9.3% -61.9%
Ozzie Albies 88.4% 26.5% -61.9%
Jose Altuve 92.4% 30.7% -61.6%
Kodai Senga 80.1% 20.8% -59.3%
Cedric Mullins 73.7% 14.5% -59.2%
Bryan Reynolds 90.5% 31.9% -58.6%
Zac Gallen 90.2% 31.6% -58.6%
Aaron Nola 81.3% 22.9% -58.5%
Anthony Volpe 79.5% 21.1% -58.4%
Mike Trout 90.5% 32.2% -58.3%
Justin Verlander 64.8% 6.6% -58.2%
Gavin Lux 74.6% 17.2% -57.4%
Josh Lowe 84.7% 27.7% -57.0%
Luke Weaver 84.4% 28.0% -56.4%
Brandon Pfaadt 75.8% 19.6% -56.3%
Mark Vientos 91.7% 35.5% -56.2%
Tyler O’Neill 72.2% 16.3% -55.9%
José Berríos 68.5% 12.7% -55.9%
Wenceel Pérez 71.9% 16.3% -55.6%
Yusei Kikuchi 70.6% 15.4% -55.3%
Adley Rutschman 87.2% 31.9% -55.2%
Luis Castillo 85.9% 30.7% -55.2%
Isaac Collins 83.8% 28.6% -55.2%
J.T. Realmuto 77.4% 22.3% -55.1%
Freddie Freeman 93.9% 38.9% -55.0%
Grayson Rodriguez 96.9% 42.2% -54.8%
Jeremiah Jackson 67.0% 12.7% -54.3%
Tommy Edman 67.0% 13.0% -54.0%
Shawn Armstrong 65.4% 11.7% -53.7%
Taj Bradley 71.9% 18.4% -53.5%
Teoscar Hernández 93.3% 40.1% -53.2%
Spencer Steer 91.1% 38.0% -53.2%
Max Scherzer 59.0% 6.3% -52.7%
Bryce Harper 96.3% 44.0% -52.4%
Christian Moore 76.8% 24.7% -52.1%
Josh Jung 71.6% 19.9% -51.7%
Bailey Ober 67.0% 15.4% -51.6%
Clayton Kershaw 53.5% 2.1% -51.4%
Tyler Freeman 67.9% 16.6% -51.3%
Nick Gonzales 61.8% 10.5% -51.2%
Michael Kopech 59.0% 7.8% -51.2%
Yu Darvish 55.0% 3.9% -51.1%
Royce Lewis 93.9% 43.1% -50.8%
Dalton Rushing 84.4% 33.7% -50.7%
Chris Bassitt 70.6% 20.2% -50.5%
Matt Strahm 89.3% 38.9% -50.4%
Sean Manaea 77.4% 27.1% -50.3%

Ottoneu: Jake’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions at SP

by
January 8, 2026
Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu keeper deadline is quickly approaching. There’s less than a month left to make your roster decisions before the January 31 cut deadline. I’m going through a handful of difficult keep or cut decisions at every position group to give you a transparent look at my decision making process and hopefully help you with theses specific cases for these specific players. I’ve already covered hitters in three separate articles — corner infielders, middle infielders, and outfielders — now I’m wrapping everything by covering three starting pitchers.

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Kodai Senga, SP
Salary: $16, $17
Average Salary: $18
2025 P/G: 4.33
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.16

I’m not sure the Mets know what to do with Kodai Senga so I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t know what to do with him on your fantasy squad. Injuries cost him nearly all of 2024 and a hamstring injury in June derailed his season a year later. Before that injury, he had put up a 1.47 ERA and a 3.24 FIP in 13 starts. During the rehab from his injury, his mechanics were thrown out of whack, and after he returned to the majors, he produced a 5.90 ERA and 5.76 FIP across nine starts. Ultimately, he was demoted to Triple-A in September to work on those mechanical inconsistencies.

Even if Senga is completely healthy in 2026, there were enough yellow flags in his first-half performance that a rebound back to the level of his excellent 2023 debut isn’t necessarily guaranteed. During those first 13 starts of the season, his strikeout-minus-walk rate was 13.3%, just a hair below league average and well short of the 18.0% K-BB% he posted during his first season in the US. Most of that was driven by a significant drop in strikeout rate.

You could point to his signature pitch, the ghost fork, as the reason why he wasn’t seeing as many swings and misses in 2025. And while that pitch was a little less effective last year, it was his cutter that saw the most dramatic drop in effectiveness. In 2023, his cutter was the fourth most valuable pitch in baseball by Run Value with a 2.9 RV/100, far outpacing his forkball (1.0 RV/100). In 2025, his cutter was exactly neutral with a 0.0 RV/100. Unlike his diving forkball, Senga’s cutter was a contact suppression machine during its peak, but batters made much higher quality contact against that pitch last year. That combination — a forkball that wasn’t getting as many swings and misses and a cutter that wasn’t generating as much weak contact — has me worried that Senga’s ceiling is far lower than we might think.

The projections are picking up on those concerns and see Senga taking a pretty significant step back in 2026. Health concerns aside, there are enough flags in his pitch arsenal that present enough risk to steer clear. And when you add his mechanical issues and injury history back into the picture, it’s a pretty easy call to avoid paying too high a price for Senga in 2026.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting Senga in both of my leagues where I’m rostering him and I doubt I’ll be looking to redraft him in the spring.

–

Gavin Williams, SP
Salary: $11, $9, $8
Average Salary: $9
2025 P/G: 4.22
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.03

Through his first 11 starts of the year, Gavin Williams put up a rough 4.27 ERA and 4.65 FIP. It wasn’t terrible, but it was a concerning start to the season after an up-and-down year in 2024. From the beginning of June through the end of the season, his ERA fell by nearly two full runs down to 2.50 but his FIP only dropped to 4.27. His strikeout-to-walk ratio improved slightly during those final four months of the season but the biggest reason his ERA improved was thanks to a .221 BABIP and a 87.5% strand rate. Most of his underlying peripherals pointed to the same pitcher on the mound, but a ton of good batted ball luck helped him flip his season.

For Ottoneu players, an improved ERA shouldn’t necessarily help Williams’s fantasy production and a FIP above four is usually a bad sign. But here’s where understanding the ins and outs of your given format becomes extremely important.

Gavin Williams, Ottoneu Points Performance
Time Period FIP BABIP FGpts/IP SABRpts/IP
Prior to June 4.65 0.323 3.43 3.47
June Onward 4.27 0.221 4.57 3.86

In Ottoneu leagues using the FanGraphs points system — which critically takes hits allowed into account — Williams dramatically improved his production during the later half of the season. In leagues using the SABR points system — using only the inputs for FIP — Williams’s season was frustrating from start to finish.

As for Williams’s pitch arsenal, he was able to develop a very effective sweeper last year that returned a 44.0% whiff rate. That’s an excellent pitch to add to his repertoire, though his lack of command holds him back from really raising his ceiling. That’s sort of the big issue with his profile. He has a good, hard fastball, two excellent breaking balls, but he needed some incredible batted ball luck to turn into an effective pitcher for fantasy. His command was still an issue throughout the season, leading to some pretty inconsistent outings. Still, his Location+ improved from 91 during the first two months to 96 through the end of the year. That’s something to build off of, but until he’s able to make some significant improvements in that area, I fear his excellent stuff will be held back from reaching its maximum potential.

Keep or cut?

Thankfully, all three leagues where I’m rostering Williams use FanGraphs points, so I was able to partially enjoy his second half improvements in 2025. I’m probably keeping him at $8 and $9 but I think I’ll be cutting him at $11. His inconsistencies and command issues make him a risk to roster at a double-digit salary.

–

Yusei Kikuchi, SP
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $8
2025 P/G: 3.78
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.09

Coming off what seemed to be a mini-breakout during his short 10 start stint with the Astros during the second half of 2024, Yusei Kikuchi latched on with the Angels last year. Even though he was leaving the pitching development powerhouse in Houston, I expected the changes he implemented while he was there to stick in Los Angeles. Unfortunately, they didn’t. Some mechanical issues led to a drop in velocity and a lower arm slot affected the shapes of all his pitches. He spent most of the season working out the kinks in his delivery, slowly raising his arm slot and regaining some of his velocity.

I think the thing that worries me the most is the effectiveness of Kikuchi’s fastball. He’s one of the hardest throwing left-handers in baseball, but he’s entering his age-35 season in 2026. His velocity dropped early last year, and even though he regained it in the middle of the season, it dropped again in August and September and his results tanked along with it.

Last year, he generated the lowest whiff rate on his fastball since his debut season in 2019. Both his slider and changeup were a little less effective at getting swings and misses too. It all added up to a 5.5 point drop in strikeout rate and a much higher walk rate that was more in line with what he was posting during his time in Seattle.

Kikuchi has never been a model of consistency during his career. He’ll have dominant stretches from time to time, but his command issues have often held him back from reaching his ceiling. It looked like he had turned a corner in Toronto and Houston in 2023 and ‘24, but he came crashing back down last year thanks to his mechanical troubles. Steamer projects a small bounce back but he’s getting to the point in his career where the velocity of his fastball is sitting on a knife’s edge; dip just a little and the whole repertoire comes crashing down.

Keep or cut?

$5 is probably the highest I’d want to roster Kikuchi for heading into next season. There’s always the possibility he’ll figure out his mechanics over the offseason and post another strong season like he did in 2024, but there are too many flags to risk anything higher than that. I’ll probably keep him at $5, but he’s a quick cut if his fastball isn’t looking good in the spring.


Ottoneu: Jake’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions at OF

by
January 6, 2026
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu keeper deadline is quickly approaching. There’s less than a month left to make your roster decisions before the January 31 cut deadline. I’m going through a handful of difficult keep or cut decisions at every position group to give you a transparent look at my decision making process and hopefully help you with theses specific cases for these specific players. I started with the corner infielders and middle infielders before the holidays and will wrap up with pitchers later this week.

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Teoscar Hernández, OF
Salary: $18, $19, $20
Average Salary: $21
2025 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.04

A big bounce back season during his first year in Los Angeles had me hopeful that Teoscar Hernández’s down year in Seattle in 2023 was a one year blip. A year later, it kind of seems like the bounce back was the blip after Hernández posted a 102 wRC+ in ‘25, slightly worse than the 107 he posted with the Mariners a few years ago. Entering his age-33 season this year, which Hernández should we expect to see in 2026?

Let’s get the good news out of the way first: Hernández’s contact quality looked pretty good despite the underwhelming results. His hard hit rate was still well above average, and even though his barrel rate fell by more than three points, it was still barely outside the top quartile among qualified batters. That drop in barrel rate might have had an outsized effect on his bottom line results however. His expected wOBA on contact fell from .457 in 2024 to .403 in ‘25 despite no significant change to his batted ball mix. He wasn’t pounding the ball into the ground more often, he was simply less productive on the contact he was making. His average bat speed was down a little, but not dramatically which does provide some hope that he can rediscover his knack for barrelling up pitches.

The other concerning trend last year was a walk rate that fell to the lowest it’s been in his career. Hernández has never really been a patient hitter, but his walk rate usually fell right around league average when he was a middle-of-the-order run producer in Toronto. In 2025, it dropped to 4.8%. There were no dramatic changes to his underlying plate discipline metrics which makes his walk rate even more of a mystery. His swing rate in three-ball counts was 72.7%, much higher than his norm and the second highest three-ball swing rate in baseball. That tells me he was trying to swing his way out of his struggles rather than maintaining his measured aggression that served him so well in the past.

Steamer is essentially splitting the difference between Hernández’s down seasons in 2023 and ‘25 and the rest of his productive history. That’s probably a pretty reasonable expectation — he’s getting to the age where power output starts to slide and he doesn’t have the kind of approach that would allow him to thrive once his bat speed falls off a cliff. I think he’s probably got one or two more productive seasons left in his bat and there’s always the possibility he bounces all the way back to his ‘24 level.

Keep or cut?

I think I’m cutting all three of my shares of Hernández. His projection isn’t terrible but two out of the last three years have been extremely disappointing. I’m just not comfortable paying that much salary to see if he can figure things out in 2026 as he enters the decline phase of his career.

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Kerry Carpenter, OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $10
2025 P/G: 4.44
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.37

How do you evaluate a part-time player who absolutely scorches the ball as the strong side of a platoon but useless when facing same-handed pitching. And what if that part-time player was coming off a down season where many of his offensive metrics took significant steps backwards. That’s the dilemma posed by Kerry Carpenter.

Because he’s the strong side of a platoon, Carpenter’s fantasy performance needs all sorts of context to fully understand. He’s primarily used against right-handed pitching and often pinch hits late in games if he isn’t starting. Those extra appearances off the bench artificially depress his overall points per game, though we can use points per game started, or more simply, points per plate appearance, to cut through some of that noise. Here’s a look at the various lenses we can use to clear up our evaluation of his production:

Kerry Carpenter, Ottoneu Fantasy Production
Year Overall P/G vR P/G Starting P/G Overall P/PA vR P/PA Starting P/PA
2023 5.18 4.61 5.41 1.33 1.39 1.33
2024 5.43 5.61 6.07 1.60 1.78 1.59
2025 4.44 4.07 5.08 1.24 1.31 1.27

When looking at points earned in games he started, Carpenter wasn’t too far off his production from his breakout two years ago and he looks a lot better from a points per plate appearance stand point as well.

The source of his struggles in 2025 seem to stem from a 54 point drop in BABIP and a 3.5 drop in walk rate. All of his underlying batted ball and plate discipline metrics look in line with his established norms and he even posted a career-best 22.8% strikeout rate last year.

Keep or cut?

I’m having a hard time justifying keeping a platoon outfielder for $15, even if he absolutely crushes right-handed pitching. The highs of 2024 are probably a high-water mark for him and Steamer isn’t predicting a big step forward for him in 2026. $10 is a more reasonable value for a really good part-time player like Carpenter, but a $15 salary gets squeezed off the roster.

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Trent Grisham, OF
Salary: $7, $5, $4
Average Salary: $5
2025 P/G: 5.35
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.19

After settling in as a defense-first center fielder in San Diego, Trent Grisham enjoyed a huge breakout in New York in 2025. He’s shown he’s capable of producing at the plate in the distant past — he posted a 110 wRC+ across his first two seasons in San Diego in 2020 and ‘21 — but hasn’t hit very well until last year. All of a sudden, he started mashing the ball and wound up blasting a career-high 34 home runs in 2025.

Grisham has always had a patient approach at the plate and his batted ball quality significantly improved after joining the Yankees in 2024. The biggest difference was turning his sometimes overly patient approach into selective aggression on pitches in the zone early in the count. Ambushing pitchers when they tried to steal strikes worked wonders for Grisham and represents a real change in approach for him.

Surprisingly, Steamer believes in the changes Grisham made. It would have been easy to write off his breakout as a one-year blip, but the projections are calling for a solid follow-up season, though not necessarily up to the heights of his breakout.

Keep or cut?

I see the improvements in Grisham’s approach and batted ball quality and I’m willing to bet that they stick around in 2026. I’m keeping all three of my shares.


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