Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.
First, a reminder that the first week of Ottoneu head-to-head leagues ends on April 5, which means you have 12 days to hit your games started cap. That means you’ve got a very long window to figure out which starters to use over the next week and half, and you may want to sit some of the riskier pitchers on your roster because you’ll have so many options on the table. The table below has my sit/start recommendations for the weekend and then there’s a second table below for the first normal week.
Hot Right Now (HRN) is a weekly feature focused on popular players currently being auctioned or players who you should think about auctioning in your Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats.In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:
Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP over the last 14 days who are also rostered in 80% of leagues or less. (I won’t include this section until we’re a few weeks into the regular season.)
The RotoGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, we’ll be highlighting players you should be looking at in deeper and keeper formats.
This weekend is the last weekend before Opening Day on March 25 which means it’s the biggest weekend for fantasy baseball drafting of the year. If you’ve got an Ottoneu auction draft coming up, you’ve probably already done the work to identify your team’s needs and the biggest targets in the draft. But what happens at the end of the draft when you’ve spent almost all of your salary cap and you’re looking for high-upside players to fill out your roster? That $1 zone is one of my favorite phases of the auction — diving for gold amidst a sea of all the leftover players. To help identify some of those late auction targets, here are 10 players — two from each position group (C, CI, MI, OF, SP) — whose current average auction price is less than $2. And if you’ve already completed your draft this year, you can treat this article as a list of interesting early waiver wire adds before the season gets underway.
It’s bold prediction week here at RotoGraphs. Last year, I got 3.5 of my bold predictions correct which was a really strong showing. Maybe I need to go bolder — or maybe I just got lucky.
Here are five pitcher predictions and five hitter predictions; hopefully they’ll be of some use to you as the season starts up. Alongside the predictions, I’ve also included some draft data from the current offseason to get a better sense of how these players are being valued by the Ottoneu community right now.
1. George Kirby is a top-15 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $21.1 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $27.5
Upon first glance, this might not seem like such a bold prediction based on George Kirby’s reputation. I think the market perceives him as an ace thanks to his phenomenal strikeout-to-walk ratio and clear top tier value in 5×5 leagues. But consider his record in Ottoneu points leagues: he’s never broken 5.0 P/IP in a single season and he topped out as the 22nd ranked SP by P/IP in 2023. His current Depth Charts projections have him at 4.9 P/IP, an exact match for what he accomplished during his first three seasons in the league and 22nd among all SP.
To break into the top-15, Kirby is going to have to figure out how to either boost his strikeout rate or cut back on his home run rate. Probably a mix of both. Last year, Kirby dealt with a spring shoulder injury that cost him two months of the season. Once he returned, his arm angle was eight degrees lower and his trademark pinpoint command was a little compromised. One hidden benefit of the lower arm angle was a flatter fastball and some additional arm-side movement for his secondaries. Both his slider and curveball had career-high whiff rates last year and if he can maintain and improve on those changed mechanics, maybe his strikeout rate can steadily tick upwards again in 2026.
As for his home run rate, Kirby actually ran the best xFIP of his career last year. His home run rate was about 2.5 points above his career norm and the culprit was likely poorer command of his two fastballs. His four-seamer has always been a little home run prone since he likes to elevate it up in the zone so often, but he allowed six homers off his sinker last year after allowing six total across his first three seasons in the big leagues.
2. Ryne Nelson is a top-25 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.2 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $3.8
When you open up the Baseball Savant pitch arsenal leaderboard, Tarik Skubal’s changeup leads the way with a +25 run value. That checks out as it’s an absolutely devastating pitch. The next most valuable pitch in baseball is Ryne Nelson’s four-seam fastball and I can’t say I expected to see that. The whiff rate on the pitch is a little below league average for a four-seamer so Nelson is racking up all that run value by limiting the amount of damage done on contact off the pitch. There are some caveats to think about here. Run value is a counting stat and Nelson threw his heater a lot — about 61.9% of the time. By RV/100, it was the 54th best pitch at 1.5 RV/100, which is still very good but not an extreme outlier.
The problem for Nelson is that he doesn’t have a great secondary pitch to pair with his hard fastball. He made some improvements to his slider and curveball last year but one of those breaking balls needs to take another step forward to raise his overall profile. To break into the top 25, he’d essentially need to break 5.0 P/IP — he landed at 4.8 in 2025. I think he’ll continue to suppress damaging contact with his heater and find a way to earn a few more whiffs with his secondary pitches this year.
3. Janson Junk is a top-30 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP) Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.3 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.1
Ok, this one might not be so bold because Janson Junk was already a top-30 SP last year, sneaking in at 26th with 4.8 P/IP over 110 innings. But 22.2 of those innings came as a reliever; Junk posted a 4.4 P/IP over 87.1 innings as a starter which would have ranked somewhere around 50th. From there, maybe this prediction seems a little more bold.
What I like about Junk is that he managed to harness his command to an elite level in 2025; among all pitchers with at least 100 IP, his 2.9% walk rate was the lowest in baseball by a pretty wide margin. The downside is, like Nelson above, he doesn’t really have a secondary pitch to rack up tons of swings and misses. That’s why his strikeout rate was just 17.2% despite an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio that approached six.
The Roster Resource depth charts have Junk penciled in as a long reliever in the Marlins bullpen, but there’s enough injury question marks in Miami’s rotation that I think Junk will eventually get a shot at starting again. The command improvements he made last year provide enough of a solid foundation that he can build off of. For a $1 flier at the end of your auction, that’s not a bad bet to make.
4. Joey Cantillo scores the most total points among Guardians starting pitchers Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.3 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $4.4
The Guardians starting rotation is filled with a ton of promising young pitchers; Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen로건 are all already well established in the big leagues, but Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo, and Parker Messick are all vying to make a bigger impact in the majors in 2026. Of that group of six youngsters, I think Cantillo has the best shot at actually breaking out in a big way this year.
It all starts with his changeup. That pitch returned a whiff rate of nearly 50% in 2025 thanks to a huge velocity differential from his heater. His breaking balls are decent — his curve got better results last year but he’s testing out a new grip on his slider this spring that could help that pitch take a step forward. The knock against him is his command, which is below average at best. He was able to cut his walk rate slightly once he was inserted into the Guardians rotation in July last year. With just a little improvement to his command and maybe a better breaking ball, Cantillo has an opportunity to take a big step forward this year.
The other half of this prediction requires Williams, Bibee, and the rest of the Guardians starters to stumble a bit — or at least fall short of Cantillo’s breakout. I think there are enough questions about each of them that I’m willing to bet that Cantillo rises to the top of the pile.
5. Chad Patrick scores the second most total points among Brewers starting pitchers Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.4 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.2
I hedged this prediction just a little because there should be a lot of moving parts to the Brewers rotation this year, but I think Chad Patrick will stick in the big leagues through the whole year. Because here’s the thing, this prediction was already proven correct during the first half of last year; Patrick scored 420 points before the All-Star break, second most on the Brewers behind Freddy Peralta. Then he was pushed out of the rotation and back to Triple-A for a significant portion of the second half of the season once the Brewers pitching staff got healthy.
For his part, Patrick has a really strong repertoire. By Stuff+, he has three above average pitches and his cutter is one of the best in baseball. He had a fantastic 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio last year and a 3.53 FIP that exactly matched his top line results by ERA.
As for the rest of Milwaukee’s rotation, I’m not sure Brandon Woodruff can make it through an entire season, Jacob Misiorowski still has to overcome his command issues, and the rest of the rotation is young and unproven. Some of those youngsters have brighter prospect pedigrees than Patrick ever had, but they still need to establish themselves in the big leagues and Patrick has already done that.
6. Mookie Betts scores the most total points among all SS
Ottoneu Average Salary: $35.7
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $32.9
This is as much a bet on Mookie Betts as it is a bet against Bobby Witt Jr. — although Witt wasn’t even the top scoring SS in 2025, Geraldo Perdomo was. It’s no secret that Betts’s entire season last year was derailed by the mysterious illness he caught right before the team’s spring trip to Japan. There was about a month and a half during the late summer where Betts was producing like he had at his peak which gives me some hope that he’ll be able to bounce back in a big way this year now that he’s had a full offseason to get healthy. I have some lingering concerns; namely, his contact quality dropped off pretty significantly, though that could be explained away by the loss of strength that stemmed from his spring illness.
To reach the top of the pile at shortstop, Betts will probably need to score at least 1,000 points or more. He’s done that four times in his career, and if you give him credit for the 16 games he played at short in 2023, he actually led the position in scoring that season. I have nothing against Witt but he struggled to match his otherworldly production from 2024 last year and I think that’s more in line with his true talent than his outrageous line from that breakout season.
7. Alec Bohm is a top-5 3B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.3 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $5.7
Alec Bohm was one of the guys I was on the fence about keeping this offseason. I quote, “An abysmal first month of the season is bringing down Alec Bohm’s overall numbers from 2025. From May 1 through the end of the season, he posted a .308/.356/.453 slash line, good for a 124 wRC+ and 5.4 P/G.” That P/G over those five months would have landed him ninth among all 3B last year.
I also noted that Bohm’s hot finish to the season wasn’t driven by any improvement to his underlying contact quality, but simply a career-high contact rate. More balls in play led to more positive results, even if he continued to pound the ball into the ground at too high a rate. Instead of embracing the uncertainty in his profile, I’ve decided to bet on the improvements he made to his contact rate. That’s a pretty significant change to his profile, and if he’s able to figure out how to elevate his contact just a little more often, a huge breakout could be in the cards.
8. Bryson Stott is a top-5 2B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.4 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $6.8
The argument for Bryson Stott goes a lot like the argument for Bohm above. During the second half of the season, Stott posted a 135 wRC+ and 5.1 P/G in Ottoneu. Across a full season, that would have landed him around seventh among all 2B. That late season improvement stemmed from a pretty dramatic swing change. He was able to improve the quality of his contact while still maintaining his excellent plate discipline.
Assuming the new swing mechanics carry over to this year, Stott looks well positioned for a breakout in 2026. Plus, Michael Baumann also identified Stott as a potential breakout when looking for players with similar characteristics to Geraldo Perdomo and Maikel Garcia prior to their own breakouts.
9. Spencer Horwitz is a top-12 1B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA) Ottoneu Average Salary: $4.1 Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.8
I really liked Spencer Horwitz as a sleeper last year because he had 2B eligibility and looked like he was going to have a shot at full-time at-bats after an offseason trade to Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, wrist surgery derailed the start of his season and it took a while for his bat to get going once he made it back to the majors. During the second half of the season, he posted a 154 wRC+ and put up 5.8 P/G in Ottoneu. That would have ranked 10th among qualified 1B across the full season.
His contact quality doesn’t stand out that much but he does have an excellent approach at the plate. That gives him a solid floor and I think a fully healthy wrist will help him take a big step forward this year. The potential risk to this prediction is that he’s absolutely atrocious against left-handed pitching — his career platoon split is nearly 100 points of wOBA. If he’s relegated to the strong side of a platoon and makes a bunch of pinch hit appearances in games that he doesn’t start, his P/G will likely take a pretty big hit. Practically, you can just stash him on your fantasy team’s bench whenever the Pirates are facing a lefty, but for this prediction to come true, he needs to improve his production against same-handed pitching and figure out a way to stay out of a platoon situation.
Just like my bold prediction about Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbelllast year (which I got half right), I’m throwing some cold water on the hype surrounding these three top prospects. I did hedge a little bit because I didn’t want to be too much of a downer, but it’s really hard to make the jump from the minor leagues to the majors. It certainly seems like the Pirates, Tigers, and Cardinals are going to give these three a shot to break into the big leagues this year, probably right out of spring training, but their success should not be simply assumed to be a guarantee. Griffin is only 19! McGonigle only has 206 plate appearances above High-A! Wetherholt only has a little over 600 total plate appearances as a professional! The odds are that all three of these guys will end up being very good ballplayers eventually, but it might be a lot to ask of them to be among the best at their position right off the bat in 2026.
The Ottoneu rankings push shifts to the mound with a look at starting pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.
Changelog
2/24/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $3-$5 and above. Updated tier placement for 23 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 28 players based on 2026 draft results.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.
Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.
Big spike in strikeout rate came with a bunch more home runs. His splitter is an incredible pitch, but the slider and fastball can get hit hard at times.
Might have been the hardest pitcher to rank. Major shoulder injury last year throws his health into question. Big improvements in his underlying skills — career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio — but BABIP ballooned over .350.
If Ohtani was only a pitcher, this is where he’d rank based on his P/IP ceiling. Of course, the question is how many innings he’ll actually pitch in 2026.
Another Dodgers starter with workload concerns, but more importantly, his walk rate spiked and strikeout rate fell in 2025. His slider took a significant step backwards.
Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Signature command slipped a little bit but he might have found a breaking ball that works for him.
Thoracic outlet surgery throws his entire future up in the air — and he was already entering his age-36 season. Monitor his health reports in the spring.
Strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since 2017 but was still excellent in limited innings. Like every Dodgers starter, the question is volume.
A groin injury derailed what was looking like a breakout season. Figured out how to locate his slider and his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved significantly.
Really struggled with a home run problem during the final two months of 2025 (12 HRs in 10 starts, 5.01 FIP). Fastball and secondaries all looked good, so it could have been just bad luck.
The raw stuff is undeniable but the lack of command is holding him back. Strikeout rate is high enough to offset the free passes but there are volume concerns too.
Incredible debut in September and through the playoffs. Super weird release point didn’t help his fastball but his splitted was a monster. Will the Blue Jays manage his workload in ’26?
Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Track record speaks for itself but still questions about his skills returning after injury.
Didn’t regain his fastball after Tommy John surgery and his whole arsenal suffered. If the velocity is back, he could be a steal. If not, he might not even rise to this level of value.
Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. He was great for three years with his weird fastball but needs to prove he’s healthy.
Hasn’t pitched since August 2023 thanks to Tommy John surgery and a triceps injury. I have no idea what to expect from him if he’s healthy (which isn’t a guarantee).
Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. Currently buried on the Red Sox depth chart but should force his way into an opportunity sooner rather than later.
Top prospect who finally got a shot to start in August. His fastball is merely okay but his secondaries look great. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
Missed the entire 2025 season with multiple arm issues. Had shown some promising skills a few years ago but health throws it all into question. New home in Angels Stadium won’t help either.
Four swing-and-miss secondary pitches but can’t generate strikeouts because his pitch mix is too sinker heavy. Elite groundball rate provides a solid floor.
Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. His fastball looks elite, he’s got excellent command, but his secondaries need to develop a bit more. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
Excellent debut in 2025 but a lot of his success seemed to be BABIP driven. Solid command, deep repertoire, great secondaries give him a decent floor and potential for high ceiling.
Velocity dropped in 2025 and strikeout rate dropped 3 points for the second season in a row. Decent skills otherwise, but probably won’t reach his ceiling again.
Went through some big ups and downs in 2025 and was hurt by Steinbrenner Field. Decent skills across the board and should be better back in Tropicana Field.
Despite strong Stuff+ grades, he never seemed to be able to put it all together in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 5 points and he allowed a bunch more home runs.
The transition to the rotation worked out but he wore down as the season went on. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but strikeout-to-walk ratio is merely okay.
Suffered through the worst season of his career in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 4 points, but still could bounce back if he can figure out the whiff rate issues.
Looked great in his return to the starting rotation in 2024 but shoulder injuries are no joke. How effective will he be and what will his workload look like?
Returning to the starting rotation after a successful stint in the bullpen in 2025. Fastball-slider combo is dominant, but needs a third or fourth pitch to be successful.
Cut his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider. A career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio was great to see but he also suffered from a massive home run spike.
Will be returning from Tommy John surgery but should be healthy for spring training. Enjoyed big breakout in 2023 before the injury but needs to prove he’s healthy after missing so much time.
Big strikeout potential, but questions about workload and the need for a third pitch. Penciled in as the Brewers fifth starter but faces a ton of competition from other top prospects.
Had a nice run as a starter with the Nationals before getting traded to Chicago. Should have a spot in Arizona’s rotation, but there’s some risk he could be shifted to the bullpen.
He couldn’t replicate his surprise success from 2024 in ’25, but you might chalk that up to an elbow issue that cost him half the season. Needs to get the walks back under control.
Was finally healthy for half a season, and looked pretty good, but then got injured again in mid-June. San Francisco is a nice landing spot but health will always be a question.
Had a solid first full season in the rotation in 2025 somewhat derailed by a knee injury. Curveball is a legit weapon but needs a third or fourth pitch to thrive.
His four-seam fastball is one of the best in baseball at mitigating hard contact. Needs to work on his secondary pitches to really take a step forward.
Finally healthy for a full season in 2025 but results were up and down. Focused his arsenal on his legit curveball. Landing in Baltimore should help too.
We know what his ceiling looks like from his breakout season in 2024, but an elbow injury derailed his season in ’25. Might have the highest ceiling of anyone in this tier.
Veteran slowly succumbing to Father Time. He’s been incredibly durable, which is valuable, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll ever get back to the ace he was a few years ago.
Decent skills across the board and durable. Strikeout rate dropped to a career low in 2025. Pitch mix leaned away from his signature changeup for some reason.
Ran out of steam during towards the end of 2025. Secondary pitches looked great during his excellent start to the season, hopefully has more endurance in ’26.
Followed up a healthy 2024 with a better season across the board in ’25. Fastball/splitter combo works well but needs a better third or fourth pitch to take a step forward.
Suffered through a disaster of a season in his first year in Los Angeles. Big questions about his durability, lack of a third pitch, and command, but the underlying talent is still present.
Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
Took a big step forward in 2025 by cutting his walk rate to just 2.9%. His strikeout rate isn’t great and he gives up a little too much hard contact, but the elite command gives him a nice floor.
After starting with the second largest position group last week, the Ottoneu rankings push continues with the largest position group this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.
Changelog
2/20/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 21 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 16 players based on 2026 draft results.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 75-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.
Unquestionably productive when healthy, but has never played in more than 150 games in a single season and has averaged just 118 games per season over the last five years.
Plate discipline continued to improve in 2025, and contact quality was still excellent, but wOBA still fell by nearly 50 points. I’m looking for a bounce back in ’26.
Produces like a top 10 OF by Pts/PA but the question is always how many games will he play. 2025 was the first time he had more than 500 PAs since 2017.
Still having trouble turing raw skills into a complete package. Strikeout issues a huge red flag. Ceiling is still high if he can figure out plate approach.
Huge finish to the season looks like it was BABIP fueled (.380 BABIP in 2H). Excellent contact skills, little power, no walks — reminds me of Steven Kwan.
Might have path to full-time at-bats without Bellinger in the picture. Projections see a step forward for him in 2026, and he’s still only 23 years old.
Injuries have stunted his development and lowered his ceiling. Made real plate discipline changes last year but still isn’t hitting the ball with authority.
Had a solid first full season in the big leagues in 2025. Decent power but BABIP was a bit high and relied on Coors Field for a lot of his success (71 point wOBA home/away split).
Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but could have an enticing power/patience profile if he’s healthy.
Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Injuries have really stunted his development, but good approach and contact rate give him a high floor.
Chad started off the Ottoneu rankings push with his 4×4 middle infield rankings yesterday and I’m following up with my rankings for Ottoneu points leagues. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.
Changelog
2/19/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for 11 players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 16 players based on 2026 draft results.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 50-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.
Still only 26, he’s improved signifcantly over the last few years. Added a bit of power in 2024, needs to put it all together to really take step forward.
Excellent 2H (135 wRC+) gives him something to build off of. Excellent contact quality but needs to elevate more often. Could have a path to playing time at DH in a crowded infield in New York.
Came back down to earth after All-Star break (132 wRC+ in 1H, 81 in 2H). He really leaned into his pull side to outperform xwOBA. Positional flexibility is an asset.
Managed to cut strikeout rate by 6.5 points in 2025, but underlying plate discipline metrics aren’t pretty. Chases and whiffs too much to support a K% below 20%.
Earned consistent playing time after joining Minnesota in late April and contact quality significantly improved. Doesn’t have a path to full-time at-bats right now, but should be first man off the bench.
Has had trouble staying healthy (wrist surgery derailed his rookie season) and might not start against LHP. Has the pedigree and skill set to be successful, but needs to put it all together first.
Played through knee injury in 2025 which could explain the dip in power output. Elite defense will keep him on the field, helping him accumulate points.
Disaster of a rookie campaign and now it doesn’t look like he has a path to a full-time role in the majors. Needs to bounce back in Triple-A first and force his way into the lineup.
Arizona continues to find excuses to bury Lawlar on the depth chart. Now he’s learning center field this spring but still might be sharing time anyway.
Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026. Solid skills across the board, but doesn’t have the elite carrying tool like other top prospects ranked above.
The Ottoneu rankings push continues this week with a look at the hot corner. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.
Changelog
2/18/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for five players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for three players based on 2026 draft results.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 15-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.
Blasted 45 home runs in his first full year in the big leagues. Move back to Tropicana Field won’t help but has enough power that it won’t matter much.
What a weird career arc. Huge 2H in 2025 was likely BABIP fueled (.413 BABIP w/ Cincinnati) but that comes with his aggressive, contact-oriented approach.
Offense cratered in 2025. Too much elevated contact without enough quality to do real damage. Maybe we’ll see a dead cat bounce now that he’s been traded to Arizona.
Injuries have derailed what had been a promising start to his career. Contact quality improved in 2025 and the contact rate jumped nearly 6 points, but still too aggressive with his approach.
Contact quality has been excellent but it’s really hard to survive with a strikeout rate over 30%. Probably on the strong side of a platoon in New York.
The Ottoneu rankings push continues with a look at the final position player group: first basemen. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.
Changelog
2/17/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Added player notes for all players in tier $1-$2 and above. Updated tier placement for seven players (green = moved up, red = moved down).
3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 11 players based on 2026 draft results.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 30-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. I’m also including Util-only players in this list since there’s no good home for them elsewhere. Let’s get into it.
This ranking only reflects what he does as a hitter. Tack on the $25-$30 in value he provides as a pitcher and a $100 salary for Ohtani isn’t out of the question.
Power output has waxed and waned throughout his career, but the contact quality has always stayed elite. Even in a down power season, he was the 5th most valuable 1B in 2025.
Absolutely smashed the ball during his ROY award-winning campaign. Projects as the top 1B, though there’s still some risk the league will adjust to him.
Really took advantage of Steinbrenner Field in 2025 (.389 wOBA at home); return to Tropicana Field could hurt a bit. Fantastic plate approach gives him a high floor.
Up-and-down year in 2025 but took small steps forward. Increased walk rate and slightly improved contact quality. Platoon split “only” 50 points of wOBA.
The Ottoneu rankings push finally wraps up with a look at relief pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.
Changelog
2/16/2026: Updated projections w/ ZiPS and OOPSY. Updated tier placement for one player (green = moved up, red = moved down).
3/18/2026: Updated tier placement for 19 players based on 2026 draft results. Added Paul Sewald, Brooks Raley, Drew Pomeranz, Mason Montgomery, and Cole Henry.
Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Here are few more notes about my process:
Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.
Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.
Here are my general thoughts about relief pitchers in Ottoneu points and 4×4 leagues: underlying skills matter a lot more than a pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order. Chasing saves isn’t as important as it might be in 5×5 leagues where saves make up 20% of the pitching categories. Teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations which means if you target relievers with strong skills, saves and holds (and the bonus points associated with them in Ottoneu points leagues) will follow.
Relievers are also the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.
