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Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 5–11

Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 5–11
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI NYM (71) LAD (71) Corbin Burnes (x2), Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Merrill Kelly 켈리, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH SEA (14) NYY (28) Luis Severino (x2) Jeffrey Springs, Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears Gunnar Hoglund (?)
ATL CIN (46) @PIT (123) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach AJ Smith-Shawver (@PIT) Smith-Shawver (vCIN), Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @MIN (88) @LAA (137) Cade Povich (x2), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Kyle Gibson, Brandon Young (?)
BOS TEX (116) @KCR (143) Garrett Crochet Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito (@KCR) Giolito (vTEX), Tanner Houck
CHC SFG (144) @NYM (88) Matthew Boyd (x2), Colin Rea, Shota Imanaga Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon
CHW @KCR (143) MIA (90) Shane Smith (x2) Davis Martin Sean Burke (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Bryse Wilson
CIN @ATL (57) @HOU (116) Hunter Greene Brady Singer (x2), Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Andrew Abbott (x2)
CLE @WSN (99) PHI (112) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Ben Lively 라이블리, Logan Allen로건
COL DET (61) SDP (96) Chase Dollander (x2), Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner, Germán Márquez
DET @COL (108) TEX (150) Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Tarik Skubal, Jackson Jobe (vTEX) Jobe (@COL), Casey Mize
HOU @MIL (115) CIN (50) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco (x2), Hayden Wesneski Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR CHW (131) BOS (51) Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo (vCHW), Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Lugo (vBOS) Michael Lorenzen
LAA TOR (141) BAL (120) Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Soriano Tyler Anderson (x2) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @MIA (103) @ARI (90) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May Ben Casparius (?), Roki Sasaki Landon Knack (?)
MIA LAD (58) @CHW (137) Max Meyer Sandy Alcantara (@CHW) Alcantara (vLAD), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Valente Bellozo (?)
MIL @HOU (116) @TBR (117) Freddy Peralta Jose Quintana Brandon Woodruff (?), Quinn Priester Tobias Myers (x2)
MIN BAL (146) SFG (127) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack
NYM @ARI (90) CHC (67) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes David Peterson (@ARI), Tylor Megill Griffin Canning, Peterson (vCHC)
NYY SDP (115) @ATH (75) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (vSDP) Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren, Rodón (@ATH) Carlos Carrasco
PHI @TBR (117) @CLE (159) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola Ranger Suárez
PIT @STL (109) ATL (92) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski (x2)
SDP @NYY (33) @COL (108) Michael King (@NYY), Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta, King (@COL) Stephen Kolek (?), Randy Vásquez
SEA @ATH (75) TOR (188) Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller (vTOR) Miller (@ATH) Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans
SFG @CHC (95) @MIN (88) Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Jordan Hicks Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray
STL PIT (127) @WSN (99) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Steven Matz, Erick Fedde 페디, Andre Pallante
TBR PHI (86) MIL (72) Drew Rasmussen (x2), Shane Baz Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @BOS (46) @DET (98) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @LAA (137) @SEA (99) Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Bowden Francis Eric Lauer 라우어 (?)
WSN CLE (109) STL (118) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, Trevor Williams Michael Soroka (?)

A few general schedule notes:

  • Now that we’ve reached May, I’m starting to use in-season data to calculate opponent strength.
  • The Athletics have a beast of a schedule next week; not only are they playing two of the hottest offenses in baseball, they’re playing in their tiny bandbox in Sacramento. Those games should be extremely high scoring affairs. The Padres also have to face the Yankees next week, in New York to boot, but San Diego then gets to travel to Colorado. The Diamondbacks just barely avoid the double red tags, but I’d still avoid their starters against the Mets and Dodgers.
  • No team has a double green week, but the Twins get close with series against the struggling Orioles and the Giants at home.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: April 29, 2025

Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Hopefully, these six under-rostered pitchers — three starters and three relievers — can help.

Under-rostered Starters
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Ryan Gusto HOU 22.2 2.70 21.1% 106 5.36 29.4%
Jose Quintana MIL 23.2 3.35 7.5% 82 5.00 19.6%
Colin Rea CHC 18.2 1.50 21.1% 98 6.84 13.2%

Chad covered Ryan Gusto in his Hot Right Now column yesterday. I mostly agree with his assessment:

“So yes, he has looked good so far. But with only 22.2 IP so far this year, I am more inclined to bet on his track record than his early performance with Houston. Double his walks, double his HR, and how are you feeling? There’s nothing wrong with riding the hot streak. That could both net you some short-term gains and give you time to see if that control and HR suppression are legit. But there are other SP out there I am more interested in right now.”

One thing I’d like to add is that Stuff+ really likes Gusto. All three of his fastballs are above league average by that metric and so is his slider. Stuff+ isn’t as enamored with his changeup but that pitch is returning a 37.5% whiff rate which is above average for the pitch type. Sure, the minor league track record isn’t there, but it’s possible Gusto has taken a pretty significant step forward in his development.

I do need to advise some caution because of the contact quality issues Chad mentioned and also because the Astros will likely activate Lance McCullers Jr. from the IL within a few weeks and possibly Spencer Arrighetti a few more weeks after that. It’s very likely Gusto will be relegated to the bullpen once Houston’s starting rotation gets a little more healthy. So, yes, ride the hot hand while you can, but don’t expect Gusto to be a long-term solution for your pitching staff.

I recommended Jose Quintana in my last Ottoneu Drip and I’m honestly shocked he hasn’t been rostered more. All he’s done since that write up is make three fantastic starts, allowing just three runs total. His strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t great and it seems like he’s relying on a lot of guile to get by, but the results speak for themselves.

The injury to Justin Steele forced the Cubs to add Colin Rea to their starting rotation a few weeks ago. Rea muddled through the last two years as an innings eating member of the Brewers rotation, but he has made three solid starts for the Cubs against some really impressive opponents. Against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies, he’s allowed just two runs in 13.1 innings while striking out 17. That’s enough for me to take notice.

The biggest difference is a four-seam that he’s throwing more than half the time at the expense of his sinker. His repertoire is still deep — six pitches strong — but he’s really emphasized the heater. He’s throwing it about a tick harder than last year with a little more rise and a little more cut and it’s returning a 25% whiff rate and a .334 xwOBA, both above average marks for a four-seamer. He’s also dropped his arm angle by about five degrees which has had a positive effect on the horizontal movement of all of his pitches. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball makes him a pretty interesting pick up, though I might wait to see how he does in a few more starts before rushing out to add him.

Under-rostered Relievers
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Will Vest DET 12 2.80 23.3% 0.83 103 8.64 53.2%
Reed Garrett NYM 11.2 2.02 17.4% 1.74 112 9.83 51.1%
Shelby Miller ARI 11.2 1.94 23.3% 1.93 97 9.29 14.4%

Chad also covered Will Vest in his article yesterday and I don’t really have much more to add. If you’re speculating on saves in Detroit’s bullpen, Vest is as good an investment as any other high leverage option in that ‘pen.

Reed Garrett had a mini-little breakout last summer before burning out in August. He’s still making high-leverage appearances for the Mets this year and he’s been pretty good. The strikeout rate isn’t as lofty as it was last year, but his walk rate is down and he’s only allowed a single unearned run.

Shelby Miller was finally healthy last year but his stint in Detroit’s bullpen of death could have gone better. He latched on with the Diamondbacks this year and is throwing a little harder and added a sweeper to his repertoire. He, too, has only allowed a single unearned run in 11 appearances for the Snakes and he’s already beginning to work some high leverage opportunities for them.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 28–May 4

Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 28–May 4
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @NYM (72) @PHI (81) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Merrill Kelly 켈리
ATH @TEX (98) @MIA (106) J.T. Ginn (x2), Luis Severino, Osvaldo Bido JP Sears (x2), Jeffrey Springs
ATL @COL (121) LAD (78) Spencer Schwellenbach Chris Sale, Grant Holmes AJ Smith-Shawver (x2), Bryce Elder
BAL NYY (81) KCR (147) Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Cade Povich, Kyle Gibson (?), Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer
BOS @TOR (122) MIN (95) Garrett Crochet (x2) Walker Buehler Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito (?), Brayan Bello
CHC @PIT (130) @MIL (115) Shota Imanaga (x2), Matthew Boyd Colin Rea Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon
CHW MIL (105) HOU (62) Shane Smith Bryse Wilson (x2), Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin
CIN STL (94) WSN (112) Brady Singer (x2), Hunter Greene Nick Martinez (x2), Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo
CLE MIN (121) @TOR (122) Tanner Bibee (x2), Gavin Williams Ben Lively 라이블리 Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Logan Allen로건
COL ATL (16) @SFG (145) Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner Tanner Gordon (?), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander, Antonio Senzatela
DET @HOU (86) @LAA (107) Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson (x2), Tarik Skubal Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe
HOU DET (156) @CHW (146) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto, Hayden Wesneski Lance McCullers Jr. (?)
KCR @TBR (96) @BAL (97) Cole Ragans (?), Kris Bubic Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen
LAA @SEA (120) DET (128) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Jack Kochanowicz (x2), Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD MIA (104) @ATL (46) Dustin May, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Tony Gonsolin (?), Roki Sasaki
MIA @LAD (72) ATH (83) Max Meyer Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera (x2), Cal Quantrill, Connor Gillispie
MIL @CHW (146) CHC (56) Freddy Peralta (@CHW) Tobias Myers, Peralta (vCHC) Chad Patrick, Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana
MIN @CLE (128) @BOS (63) Bailey Ober (@CLE), Pablo López, Joe Ryan Ober (@BOS) Chris Paddack (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM ARI (86) @STL (147) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill Griffin Canning (x2), David Peterson (x2)
NYY @BAL (97) TBR (84) Max Fried Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt Will Warren (x2), Carlos Carrasco
PHI WSN (136) ARI (60) Cristopher Sánchez (?), Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez (?)
PIT CHC (66) SDP (107) Paul Skenes Andrew Heaney (x2), Mitch Keller Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP SFG (124) @PIT (130) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Kyle Hart 하트, Randy Vásquez
SEA LAA (154) @TEX (98) Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller Emerson Hancock
SFG @SDP (113) COL (179) Logan Webb (x2), Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks
STL @CIN (30) NYM (76) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Steven Matz (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디
TBR KCR (128) @NYY (50) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Taj Bradley (vKCR), Ryan Pepiot Bradley (@NYY) Zack Littell
TEX ATH (80) SEA (89) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter (?) Kumar Rocker (x2)
TOR BOS (81) CLE (120) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis (x2), José Berríos Paxton Schultz (?)
WSN @PHI (81) @CIN (30) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • They’re not marked in red above, but I’d be weary of starting anyone from the Braves or Diamondbacks next week. Atlanta travels to Colorado which makes Chris Sale’s scheduled start a big risk and then the team returns home to host the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Arizona heads out on an East Coast road trip through New York and Philadelphia and neither Corbin Burnes or Zac Gallen have been all that impressive to start this season.
  • The Astros look to be the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week, at home against the Tigers and on the road against the White Sox. Ronel Blanco could be lined up for a double-start week but that could be in flux if Houston decides to activate Lance McCullers Jr. next weekend.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 21–27

Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 21–27
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TBR (85) ATL (44) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (vTBR), Eduardo Rodriguez Merrill Kelly 켈리, Pfaadt (vATL)
ATH TEX (93) CHW (154) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido (x2) JP Sears, J.T. Ginn
ATL STL (95) @ARI (59) Spencer Schwellenbach (x2), Spencer Strider, Chris Sale Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @WSN (128) @DET (142) Cade Povich, Charlie Morton Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Brandon Young (?)
BOS SEA (96) @CLE (127) Walker Buehler (vCHW), Garrett Crochet Buehler (@CLE) Brayan Bello (?), Tanner Houck Sean Newcomb
CHC LAD (71) PHI (107) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon Colin Rea
CHW @MIN (115) @ATH (87) Shane Smith Martín Pérez Jonathan Cannon (x2), Davis Martin (x2), Sean Burke
CIN @MIA (115) @COL (104) Brady Singer Nick Martinez (@MIA) Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo, Martinez (@COL)
CLE NYY (63) BOS (82) Gavin Williams (x2), Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz, Ben Lively 라이블리, Logan Allen로건
COL @KCR (114) CIN (82) Ryan Feltner (x2), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela
DET SDP (102) BAL (116) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Reese Olson, Casey Mize Jackson Jobe Keider Montero
HOU TOR (103) @KCR (114) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto, Lance McCullers Jr. (?), Hayden Wesneski
KCR COL (129) HOU (93) Kris Bubic (x2), Cole Ragans Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha
LAA PIT (121) @MIN (115) José Soriano (x2) Yusei Kikuchi Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CHC (92) PIT (136) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May, Roki Sasaki
MIA CIN (107) @SEA (130) Max Meyer (x2), Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Connor Gillispie
MIL @SFG (122) @STL (115) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester (x2), Jose Quintana (x2) Tobias Myers (?) Chad Patrick
MIN CHW (158) LAA (67) Bailey Ober, David Festa Joe Ryan, Pablo López (?) Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM PHI (105) @WSN (128) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (x2), David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY @CLE (127) TOR (87) Max Fried Clarke Schmidt (x2), Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Carlos Carrasco
PHI @NYM (84) @CHC (92) Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola (x2) Ranger Suárez (?)
PIT @LAA (42) @LAD (48) Paul Skenes Andrew Heaney, Mitch Keller Bailey Falter (x2) Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP @DET (142) TBR (84) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Randy Vásquez (x2), Kyle Hart 하트
SEA @BOS (58) MIA (141) Bryce Miller (x2), Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Emerson Hancock
SFG MIL (130) TEX (119) Logan Webb Robbie Ray (x2), Landen Roupp Jordan Hicks (x2), Justin Verlander
STL @ATL (36) MIL (124) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Erick Fedde 페디, Steven Matz, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR @ARI (59) @SDP (90) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell (x2)
TEX @ATH (87) @SFG (122) Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter (?) Kumar Rocker Patrick Corbin
TOR @HOU (100) @NYY (40) Chris Bassitt Kevin Gausman (x2) Bowden Francis, José Berríos Easton Lucas
WSN BAL (103) NYM (73) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin Michael Soroka (?)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Dodgers and Cubs gain an extra day off next week to offset their early start in Japan in March. That means they’ll only play five games, though the Dodgers will need to call up a spot starter anyway after Bobby Miller was optioned after his own spot start on Thursday. Roster Resource has Matt Sauer listed as the starter on Wednesday but it’s possible Los Angeles will activate Tony Gonsolin for that start instead.
  • After spending most of the month rehabbing, we’ll probably see the season debuts of Ranger Suárez, Brayan Bello, Tobias Myers, and Lance McCullers Jr. (!) next week and Jack Leiter and Pablo López are on track to be activated from their short stints on the IL too.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: April 16, 2025

Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The wave of early season injuries has hit hard and your fantasy baseball team is more than likely feeling the effects. One of my Ottoneu teams has eight pitchers currently on the IL and I dropped two other injured pitchers in my desperate search for reinforcements. Hopefully, these eight under-rostered pitchers — four starters and four relievers — can help you in your own search for pitching help.

Under-rostered Starters
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Tyler Mahle TEX 13.2 2.81 9.4% 90 6.64 48.9%
Andrew Heaney PIT 18 2.75 20.0% 100 5.98 35.5%
Matthew Liberatore STL 18.1 1.94 23.9% 105 6.10 22.3%
Jose Quintana MIL 7 2.46 9.1% 83 6.49 9.5%

Tyler Mahle is finally healthy after working back from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and a shoulder injury last year. At his peak, he was a strikeout generating machine, producing a 27.1% strikeout rate across three seasons from 2020–22. He hasn’t reached that same level of effectiveness yet, but his first four starts this year have been promising. So far, he’s allowed just two earned runs and eight hits across 19.2 innings, and it seems like the command issues that limited him to just 1.2 innings in his first start are behind him. The velocity on his four-seamer hasn’t returned all the way — and it might not — but he’s getting more induced vertical movement on the pitch than ever before. Opposing batters aren’t swinging and missing against his secondary pitches yet, but the whiff rate on his heater 36.2% of the time! He’s gotten a bit lucky in the batted ball department so I’m sure some regression is coming, but as long as he’s healthy, he looks like he can be a useful starter in all fantasy formats.

Andrew Heaney has been a frequent recommendation in this column over the last few years. He’s the type of pitcher who has hot streaks where he looks incredibly impressive for a time but he isn’t consistent enough to deserve a high roster rate. He’s started off this year on a heater, allowing six runs across 18 innings in his first three starts with a phenomenal 20.0% K-BB%. He’s adjusted his repertoire to feature three different variations of his sweeping breaking ball — Statcast classifies them as a curveball, slider, and slow curve but they’re all generally the same shape with different velocities. He’s also added a sinker to his mix which gives him another weapon to keep batters off his four-seamer. These adjustments to his arsenal have my attention and I’m interested to see if they can help him reduce the amount of hard contact he allows off his heater.

After struggling in the starting rotation for a season and half, Matthew Liberatore found some success pitching out of the bullpen late last year. The Cardinals moved him back to the rotation to start this year and his first three starts of the season have been fantastic from a peripherals standpoint even if the actual run prevention hasn’t been up to snuff. He’s struck out 18 and walked just one in 18.1 innings and he’s managed to work around the platoon issues that have been a problem for him throughout his career. You can chalk that up to a greater emphasis on his changeup and cutter and better command of his entire repertoire.

After signing late in the spring, the Brewers called up Jose Quintana to make his season debut last week and he held the potent Diamondbacks offense scoreless over seven innings. At 36 years old, his best years are probably behind him, but he’s been a useful innings eater for a few years now. One thing to note: he threw his sinker more than half the time in his first start and more than half the balls in play off him were on the ground. Something to keep an eye on if you’re looking to add him.

Under-rostered Relievers
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Randy Rodríguez SFG 8.1 -0.09 41.9% 1.73 117 9.67 47.7%
Bryan King HOU 7.1 0.71 39.3% 0.97 98 10.75 26.3%
Phil Maton STL 8.1 0.99 33.3% 1.21 101 10.31 16.5%
Gabe Speier SEA 6.2 0.63 36.4% 1.32 123 10.43 4.9%

Many teams are still sorting through the pecking order in their bullpens as they figure out which guys they can trust with high leverage opportunities. The four relievers listed above aren’t necessarily pitching in the ninth or eighth inning, but their peripherals are so good that they could find themselves in those spots sooner rather than later.

Randy Rodríguez has struck out more than 40% of the batters he’s faced so far this season and the Giants are starting to give him more and more high leverage work as a result. Tyler Rogers has been their long-time setup man but Rodríguez’s high-octane stuff fits the role a lot better.

After the Astros traded away Ryan Pressley this offseason, a spot towards the back of their bullpen opened up. Bryan King has quickly filled that opening by also striking out more than 40% of the batters he’s faced. As a left-hander, he’ll likely get high-leverage work when facing pockets of left-handed batters in the late innings, giving him some specific usage patterns.

The Cardinals didn’t really have many good setup options in front of their All-Star closer Ryan Helsley. In steps Phil Maton. He quickly grabbed the eighth inning role in St. Louis and doesn’t really have many competitors for the role.

Injuries wrecked Gabe Speier’s season last year but he’s healthy and firing bullets at the back of the Mariners’ ‘pen. Like King, Speier should see some specific usage patterns as a left-handed reliever and the impending return of Matt Brash could see him pushed down the pecking order in a few weeks.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 14–20

Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 14–20
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @MIA (135) @CHC (87) Brandon Pfaadt, Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 (@MIA), Eduardo Rodriguez Kelly (@CHC)
ATH @CHW (138) @MIL (96) Jeffrey Springs (x2) Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears, Luis Severino Mitch Spence
ATL @TOR (96) MIN (127) Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale Grant Holmes (x2), Spencer Strider (?) AJ Smith-Shawver
BAL CLE (139) CIN (139) Cade Povich, Charlie Morton Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS @TBR (100) CHW (144) Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck (vCHW) Houck (@TBR), Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts Sean Newcomb
CHC @SDP (92) ARI (71) Shota Imanaga Matthew Boyd Jameson Taillon (x2), Ben Brown Colin Rea
CHW ATH (82) @BOS (53) Shane Smith Sean Burke (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Martín Pérez
CIN SEA (104) @BAL (101) Brady Singer, Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo (x2), Nick Martinez Andrew Abbott (?)
CLE @BAL (101) @PIT (156) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz
COL @LAD (46) WSN (86) Ryan Feltner, Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander Antonio Senzatela (x2), Kyle Freeland
DET @MIL (96) KCR (136) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson, Casey Mize Jackson Jobe
HOU @STL (112) SDP (90) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco Hayden Wesneski Ryan Gusto
KCR @NYY (36) @DET (125) Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo (@DET) Lugo (@NYY), Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha (@DET) Wacha (@NYY), Michael Lorenzen
LAA @TEX (97) SFG (104) José Soriano Yusei Kikuchi (x2) Jack Kochanowicz, Kyle Hendricks Tyler Anderson
LAD COL (128) @TEX (97) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May (x2) Landon Knack, Roki Sasaki
MIA ARI (49) @PHI (40) Max Meyer (x2), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Edward Cabrera (?), Connor Gillispie
MIL DET (96) ATH (92) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana (?) Tyler Alexander (x2), Chad Patrick
MIN NYM (92) @ATL (84) Joe Ryan (x2) Bailey Ober David Festa, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM @MIN (130) STL (108) Clay Holmes (x2), Tylor Megill (x2), Kodai Senga David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY KCR (104) @TBR (100) Max Fried (x2) Carlos Rodón Clarke Schmidt (?), Marcus Stroman, Will Warren
PHI SFG (119) MIA (130) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker (x2)
PIT WSN (118) CLE (122) Paul Skenes (x2) Mitch Keller (x2), Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter, Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP CHC (76) @HOU (130) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta, Michael King Randy Vásquez, Kyle Hart 하트
SEA @CIN (88) @TOR (96) Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert Casey Lawrence (?)
SFG @PHI (40) @LAA (75) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Landen Roupp (@LAA) Roupp (@PHI), Justin Verlander (x2)
STL HOU (146) @NYM (105) Sonny Gray (x2) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Steven Matz (?), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR BOS (66) NYY (48) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Zack Littell (x2), Taj Bradley
TEX LAA (91) LAD (45) Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter (?), Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Kumar Rocker Patrick Corbin (x2)
TOR ATL (89) SEA (142) Kevin Gausman (x2) Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, José Berríos Easton Lucas
WSN @PIT (156) @COL (104) Jake Irvin (@PIT), Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams, MacKenzie Gore Brad Lord (x2), Irvin (@COL)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Orioles are the only team with two easier matchups next week, but unfortunately, their rotation is a bit up in the air with the injury to Zack Eflin. I don’t really trust any of their other starters, even against weaker opponents at home.
  • The two Florida teams pull some pretty tough opponents next week. The Marlins host the Diamondbacks and then head to Philadelphia while the Rays host the Red Sox and Yankees. It’s still too early to put much stock in the early park factors for George M. Steinbrenner Field, but Statcast lists its current park factor as 92, though I wonder if that’s more to do with the weather than the actual park dimensions.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 7–13

Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 7–13
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI BAL (66) MIL (125) Zac Gallen (x2), Corbin Burnes Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH SDP (100) NYM (40) Luis Severino (x2), Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears Joey Estes
ATL PHI (45) @TBR (104) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @ARI (70) TOR (97) Zach Eflin (x2) Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich
BOS TOR (67) @CHW (138) Garrett Crochet (x2), Tanner Houck (@CHW) Houck (vTOR) Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts, Sean Newcomb
CHC TEX (84) @LAD (31) Shota Imanaga Justin Steele (x2) Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd Ben Brown
CHW @CLE (134) BOS (40) Sean Burke Shane Smith (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Martín Pérez
CIN @SFG (165) PIT (108) Hunter Greene (x2), Nick Martinez Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer Andrew Abbott (?)
CLE CHW (168) KCR (96) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz
COL MIL (89) @SDP (107) Germán Márquez Kyle Freeland (x2), Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner, Bradley Blalock
DET NYY (77) @MIN (99) Tarik Skubal Casey Mize (x2), Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Jackson Jobe
HOU @SEA (161) LAA (101) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco Hayden Wesneski (x2)
KCR MIN (94) @CLE (134) Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Michael Lorenzen (x2)
LAA @TBR (104) @HOU (84) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @WSN (148) CHC (82) Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May (x2), Roki Sasaki
MIA @NYM (56) WSN (139) Sandy Alcantara Max Meyer Connor Gillispie (x2), Tyler Phillips, Cal Quantrill
MIL @COL (111) @ARI (70) Freddy Peralta (@ARI) Peralta (@COL), Jose Quintana (?) Nestor Cortes, Elvin Rodriguez, Chad Patrick
MIN @KCR (81) DET (150) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson (x2) Chris Paddack
NYM MIA (167) @ATH (117) Kodai Senga (x2), Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY @DET (166) SFG (128) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (x2) Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Will Warren
PHI @ATL (36) @STL (137) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker
PIT STL (119) @CIN (49) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Carmen Mlodzinski (x2), Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
SDP @ATH (117) COL (146) Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Kyle Hart 하트 Randy Vásquez
SEA HOU (101) TEX (88) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo Luis F. Castillo (?)
SFG CIN (105) @NYY (47) Logan Webb (vCIN) Jordan Hicks, Webb (@NYY) Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray
STL @PIT (140) PHI (65) Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde 페디 Matthew Liberatore (@PIT), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas Liberatore (vPHI)
TBR LAA (96) ATL (36) Shane Baz (vLAA), Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Baz (vATL)
TEX @CHC (105) @SEA (161) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Tyler Mahle, Kumar Rocker
TOR @BOS (46) @BAL (76) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis José Berríos (x2) Easton Lucas (x2)
WSN LAD (41) @MIA (148) Mitchell Parker MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams (@MIA) Williams (vLAD), Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka

A few general schedule notes:

  • The toughest schedule next week might belong to the Brewers who travel to the thin air of Colorado and then to Arizona to face the potent D-Backs lineup. Their rotation is a mess anyway with Freddy Peralta and Nestor Cortes essentially the only two pitchers you’d even consider starting, and luckily enough, they’re both scheduled to pitch in Coors Field next week.
  • There isn’t a single team with two great matchups next week, though the Yankees come close with a series in Detroit and then a home series against the Giants.

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: April 1, 2025

Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Drip, a twice-monthly column dedicated to identifying under-rostered pitchers in Ottoneu leagues who might be worth a second look. I went back through the archives from last year and correctly identified Spencer Arrighetti, Mitchell Parker, Tobias Myers, Kris Bubic, Hunter Gaddis, Porter Hodge, and Luke Weaver as clear wins among a host of other short-term value plays. Let’s not get hung up on some of the misses…

Anyway, since we’ve only got a weekend’s worth of games in the bag, I decided I’d look at some of the standout starts from Opening Weekend to see if any of these under-rostered pitchers are worth rostering to start the season. I’ll give some pretty brief analysis since we’re only talking about a single start, but some of these starters might show up again in this column later on this season — if they’re not rostered at a higher rate before then.

Under-rostered Starters
Pitcher Team IP K/BB Pts Roster%
Cade Povich BAL 4.1 4.0 29.1 45.1%
Jordan Hicks SFG 6 3.0 47.8 44.8%
Mitchell Parker WSN 6.1 2.5 32.7 23.6%
Zack Littell TBR 6 7.0 48.0 22.7%
JP Sears ATH 6.2 7.0 38.0 13.5%
Martín Pérez CHW 6 3.0 50.4 3.7%
Kyle Freeland COL 6 7.0 53.2 1.5%
Germán Márquez COL 6 4.0 42.0 0.9%

Cade Povich – vBOS, 4.1 IP, 29.1 points
Povich looked pretty good against the potent Red Sox offense, though he couldn’t complete the fifth frame after throwing 94 pitches to get 13 outs. The good news is that eight of those outs were strikeouts and he earned five whiffs on 10 swings against his curveball. Povich had a solid spring training and brought his swing-and-miss stuff with him into his first start of the season. He’ll need to work on his pitch efficiency if he wants to keep his spot in the rotation once some of the rest of Baltimore’s starters get healthy.

Jordan Hicks – @HOU, 6 IP, 47.8 points
Hicks was brilliant against the Astros on Monday, allowing just a single hit and two walks to go along with six strikeouts. The most encouraging thing was the 98 mph average on his sinker on the night. That’s three and a half ticks higher than where that pitch was sitting last year and that kind of velocity jump is a really good sign for Hicks’s health. His sweeper was also sitting more than two mph higher and it returned a 50% whiff rate on the night. The big concern with Hicks’s transition to the rotation last year was his ability to maintain his high velocity he was known for as a reliever. If he’s sitting 98 mph across six innings without a drop off towards the end of his outing, that’s very intriguing.

Mitchell Parker – vPHI, 6.1 IP, 32.7 points
Parker worked around a very active Phillies lineup on Sunday and managed to hold them scoreless over 6.1 innings. He had spurts of usefulness last year and this start just reminds us that his solid command and deep repertoire can be effective if it’s all working together for him. He could be worth a flyer if you’re willing to put up with some of the rough starts while avoiding some of the tougher matchups.

Zack Littell – vCOL, 6 IP, 48.0 points
Chad already covered Littell in his Hot Right Now post yesterday but I’ll just add that Littell, like Parker, was valuable in spurts last year with the same kind of kitchen sink approach. It’s not an exciting profile, but their kind of unexciting bulk innings can be useful in Ottoneu where reaching the innings threshold is probably the easiest way to maximize your total points in the format.

JP Sears – @SEA, 6.2 IP, 38.0 points
Sears has always had a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio which has made him an intriguing undervalued player in Ottoneu. Of course, he’s also prone to allow a ridiculous amount of home runs which has always crashed his value in the format. He did allow a single homer in his start in Seattle but he also kept 50% of his batted balls on the ground which is a new wrinkle. If he suddenly figured out how to increase his groundball rate even slightly from his career norms, he might also be able to cut down on the number of batted balls flying over the fence. Something worth monitoring.

Martín Pérez – vMIN, 6 IP, 50.4 points
Pérez no-hit the Twins for six innings in his debut with the White Sox but the most surprising stat from that outing were the nine strikeouts he racked up. He’s never really had swing-and-miss stuff, but he got seven whiffs on 11 swings with his changeup on Monday. He’s not worth rostering yet — and probably won’t be — but keep an eye on his strikeout rate and his home run rate. He’s not that far removed from a 4.93 P/IP season in 2022.

Kyle Freeland – @TBR, 6 IP, 53.2 points
Germán Márquez – @PHI, 6 IP, 42.0 points
It’s always hard to roster Rockies pitchers, especially in Ottoneu where home runs really trash a pitcher’s value. Freeland cruised through six innings against the Rays on Opening Day, striking out seven on just 67 pitches. He was super aggressive in the zone and Tampa obliged by swinging at nearly everything and had only two hits and a bunch of whiffs to show for it. Márquez’s start against the Phillies was a little more interesting. He’s essentially the only Colorado pitcher who has been worth rostering over the last few seasons, though he missed a ton of time the last two years thanks to Tommy John surgery. He was fantastic in Philadelphia on Monday; his velocity was up and he earned 10 whiffs against the potent Phillies lineup. I wouldn’t rush to go out and add Márquez, but he could be an interesting add if he can keep this up and there’s always the possibility Colorado trades him midseason.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: March 27–April 6

Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks.

First, a reminder that the first week of Ottoneu head-to-head leagues ends on March 30, which means you have one weekend to hit your games started cap. That means you’ve got a very short window to figure out which starters to use over the next four days, and you may want to use some of the riskier pitchers on your roster just to hit the cap. The table below has my sit/start recommendations for the weekend and then there’s a second table below for the first normal week.

March 27–30
Team Series 1 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI CHC (128) Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH @SEA (168) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Osvaldo Bido JP Sears
ATL @SDP (95) Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach AJ Smith-Shawver
BAL @TOR (84) Zach Eflin Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano (?)
BOS @TEX (56) Garrett Crochet Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler Richard Fitts
CHC @ARI (100) Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd
CHW LAA (81) Sean Burke Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin
CIN SFG (116) Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez
CLE @KCR (114) Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams Luis L. Ortiz
COL @TBR (112) Germán Márquez Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner
DET @LAD (7) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson
HOU NYM (42) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Spencer Arrighetti
KCR CLE (156) Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Michael Wacha
LAA @CHW (147) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Tyler Anderson
LAD DET (128) Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Roki Sasaki
MIA PIT (165) Sandy Alcantara Max Meyer Connor Gillispie, Valente Bellozo
MIL @NYY (37) Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes Aaron Civale
MIN @STL (151) Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober
NYM @HOU (84) Clay Holmes Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning
NYY MIL (102) Max Fried Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman
PHI @WSN (154) Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola
PIT @MIA (179) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter
SDP ATL (26) Michael King, Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta Randy Vásquez
SEA ATH (144) Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo
SFG @CIN (51) Logan Webb Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray
STL MIN (128) Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디 Andre Pallante
TBR COL (149) Ryan Pepiot Taj Bradley, Zack Littell
TEX BOS (47) Jacob deGrom Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Tyler Mahle
TOR BAL (61) Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer José Berríos, Chris Bassitt
WSN PHI (47) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin Trevor Williams

March 31–April 6
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @NYY (36) @WSN (149) Corbin Burnes (x2), Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH CHC (90) @COL (122) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs Joey Estes (x2), Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears
ATL @LAD (7) MIA (174) Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes (vMIA) Holmes (@LAD), AJ Smith-Shawver
BAL BOS (79) @KCR (111) Zach Eflin Charlie Morton Cade Povich (x2), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS @BAL (79) STL (129) Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts Sean Newcomb (x2)
CHC @ATH (122) SDP (120) Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga Ben Brown (x2) Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd
CHW MIN (79) @DET (183) Sean Burke Martín Pérez (x2), Shane Smith, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin
CIN TEX (36) @MIL (106) Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Brady Singer (x2) Carson Spiers (x2)
CLE @SDP (93) @LAA (77) Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2), Logan Allen로건, Luis L. Ortiz
COL @PHI (29) ATH (99) Antonio Senzatela (x2), Germán Márquez Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner, Bradley Blalock
DET @SEA (163) CHW (192) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize (x2) Jackson Jobe
HOU SFG (145) @MIN (106) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco (vSFG) Spencer Arrighetti, Blanco (@MIN) Hayden Wesneski
KCR @MIN (106) BAL (84) Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Michael Wacha Kris Bubic (x2), Michael Lorenzen
LAA @STL (147) CLE (104) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jack Kochanowicz
LAD ATL (7) @PHI (29) Tyler Glasnow (x2), Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Dustin May, Roki Sasaki
MIA NYM (56) @ATL (52) Sandy Alcantara Max Meyer Cal Quantrill (x2), Connor Gillispie, Valente Bellozo
MIL KCR (70) CIN (65) Freddy Peralta Nestor Cortes Aaron Civale Tyler Alexander (x2), Chad Patrick (?)
MIN @CHW (142) HOU (88) Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Chris Paddack (@CHW), Simeon Woods Richardson Paddack (vHOU)
NYM @MIA (174) TOR (88) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes David Peterson (x2) Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning
NYY ARI (41) @PIT (172) Max Fried Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman Will Warren (x2) Carlos Carrasco
PHI COL (129) LAD (20) Cristopher Sánchez (vCOL), Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola, Sánchez (vLAD) Taijuan Walker, Jesús Luzardo
PIT @TBR (108) NYY (86) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney Carmen Mlodzinski (x2), Bailey Falter
SDP CLE (115) @CHC (106) Michael King, Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta Kyle Hart 하트 (x2) Randy Vásquez
SEA DET (172) @SFG (178) Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo Emerson Hancock (x2)
SFG @HOU (81) SEA (178) Logan Webb, Robbie Ray Justin Verlander, Jordan Hicks (vSEA) Hicks (@HOU), Landen Roupp
STL LAA (124) @BOS (66) Sonny Gray Erick Fedde Miles Mikolas (x2), Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante
TBR PIT (145) @TEX (54) Drew Rasmussen (vPIT), Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz, Rasmussen (@TEX) Zack Littell, Taj Bradley
TEX @CIN (50) TBR (95) Jacob deGrom Nathan Eovaldi Kumar Rocker (x2), Jack Leiter, Tyler Mahle
TOR WSN (149) @NYM (47) Kevin Gausman Bowden Francis (vWSN), Max Scherzer José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Francis (@NYM)
WSN @TOR (81) ARI (63) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Michael Soroka (x2), Trevor Williams

A few general schedule notes:

  • These first few weeks of the season have some awkward off days to give teams a buffer for any early season rainouts. That, combined with some still unsettled rosters, means you should definitely pay attention to the announced starters for each game, make note of any rotation shuffling, and have a backup plan just in case one of your starters misses a start.
  • The Mariners have an extremely easy schedule to start the season, hosting the A’s and Tigers before heading to San Francisco next weekend. All of their starters are usually must starts, but even with George Kirby on the IL to start the season, giving Emerson Hancock some consideration might be worthwhile if you need a two-start pitcher next week.
  • No team has three tough matchups during this first week and a half, but the Dodgers and Marlins have a pair of them next week. Los Angeles hosts the Braves before heading to Philadelphia while Miami hosts the Mets before traveling to Atlanta.

Jake Mailhot’s 2025 Ottoneu Bold Predictions

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Chad unleashed his Ottoneu-focused bold predictions on us yesterday, now I’ll take a crack at it. I’ve got five pitcher predictions and five hitter predictions; hopefully they’ll be of some use to you as the season starts up. Alongside the predictions, I’ve also included some draft data from the current offseason to get a better sense of how these players are being valued by the Ottoneu community right now.

1. Cristopher Sánchez is a top-10 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $8.2
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $12.9

We’ve all seen the hype surrounding Sánchez this spring: he’s throwing harder and has added a cutter to his pitch mix to help him combat right-handed batters. Last year, he compiled 910 points across 181.2 innings, a 5.01 P/IP rate, but his current Depth Charts projection has him pinned at around 4.71 P/IP in 2025. His per inning performance in 2024 ranked 28th among pitchers with at least 100 IP last year, and his total points ranked 13th. His current draft price has him valued somewhere around the 40th starting pitcher and his overall average salary well below that mark (thanks to those lucky enough to roster him as a keeper with plenty of surplus value).

To break into the top-10, he’d have to add about a half point per inning and seriously outperform his projections. He’s already got a solid foundation with an elite groundball rate and corresponding low home run totals, he just needs to add strikeouts to his profile. He shouldn’t have trouble finding those punchouts with his increased velocity and new cutter.

2. Reese Olson is a top-25 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $6.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $6.8

Would you believe that Olson slightly outperformed Sánchez on a rate basis last year with 5.1 P/IP? A shoulder injury cut his season short but he was fantastic while he was on the mound. His current draft price has him valued around the 65th starting pitcher and I’m sure the shoulder issues are a warning sign many can’t ignore.

What I like about Olson is that he has two absolutely killer secondary weapons in his slider and changeup that both return whiff rates north of 40% and also sports a curveball that isn’t far behind at 30%. Sure, his fastballs aren’t that great, but he’s throwing both his four-seamer and sinker about a tick harder this spring — surely a good sign for the health of his shoulder. If he stays healthy, leans on his secondary offerings, and maybe improves his fastballs, good things should be in store for him.

3. Eduardo Rodriguez is a top-50 SP (by P/IP among pitchers w/ 100+ IP)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.0
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.8

With an average draft price of just over a dollar and a roster% of just 54.8%, Eduardo Rodriguez is essentially an afterthought right now. He’s never really been an outstanding contributor in Ottoneu, but he’s only a year removed from posting a 4.9 P/IP season across 152.2 innings in 2023. Injuries absolutely wrecked his season last year but it seems like he’s fully healthy this spring. He’s struck out nearly 40% of the batter’s he’s faced and hasn’t allowed a run in Cactus League play and his velocity is even up slightly. He might not win you any leagues, but the potential for solid contributions at his current price is too good to pass up.

4. Max Meyer scores the most total points among Marlins starting pitchers
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $3.3

Originally, this bold prediction included Ryan Weathers, but he just injured his elbow and will likely be out for a few months of the season. Womp womp.

I’m sure you’ve heard but Meyer has completely revamped his pitch arsenal this spring; he’s added a sinker and sweeper to his repertoire and his fastball is now sitting at 96 mph. He’s always had a high prospect pedigree but that mostly was thanks to his outstanding slider. This is the first time as a professional he’s had a fully realized repertoire to work with.

The other unspoken aspect to this bold prediction is the status of Sandy Alcantara. For this prediction to work out in my favor, I’m assuming Alcantara is traded this summer and that Meyers continues to pitch well for Miami throughout the entire season.

5. David Festa scores the second most total points among Twins starting pitchers
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.7

I already wrote about Festa as an undervalued draft target a few weeks ago and my position hasn’t changed even though he’s been optioned to Triple-A to start the season. I wrote, “An ugly 4.90 ERA hid the fact that he posted a very good 3.76 FIP across his first 13 starts in the big leagues last year and all the projection systems think he should come close to replicating those peripherals again this year. He’s added a sinker to his pitch mix this spring and has continued to flash the swing-and-miss stuff that earned him the callup last season.”

I hedged my bold prediction a little by allowing one of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, or Bailey Ober to outscore Festa. His talent will outshine whatever the Twins are going to get from Chris Paddack or Simeon Woods Richardson and that’ll get him back to the majors pretty quickly. Taking Ryan’s injury questions into account and the slide backwards we saw from López in 2024, I’m betting Festa will emerge as the next great starter in Minnesota.

6. Brent Rooker is a top-3 OF (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $12.1
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $24.3

The first thing that has to happen for this prediction to come true is that Rooker needs to establish OF eligibility. After signing his big five-year extension this offseason and now more than a year removed from his forearm injury, I think the A’s will give him enough time in the outfield to remove his util-only status.

From there, it’s just a matter of him continuing to crush the ball in a minor league ballpark without the oppressive marine layer hampering his batted ball quality. There are 18 outfielders being valued ahead of him — his positional limitations surely have something to do with that — but just five outfielders outscored him on a rate basis last year. He’ll need to leapfrog some absolute superstars in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker for this prediction to come true. I think his continued improvement at the plate combined with his now favorable home ballpark will give him the boost he needs to sit right behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at the position.

7. Anthony Volpe is a top-12 SS (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $9.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $8.9

I’m confident in saying that Volpe is a better real life player than he is a fantasy baseball player, and I’m not actually sold that he’s a good real life player to begin with. The first two seasons of his big league career have been rocky to say the least. A much ballyhooed swing change last year amounted to four added points of wRC+ and a much lower barrel rate than what he accomplished in his rookie campaign. His current draft price has him valued around the 18th shortstop.

When looking at players with significant increases in bat speed this spring, Volpe’s name stands out above the rest. He’s added three ticks to his average exit velocity, more than half the balls he’s put in play have been hard hit, and while that contact hasn’t translated to hits or production, there’s very clearly something cooking underneath the hood. More importantly, 50% of the contact he’s made this spring has gone to his pull side. Swinging hard and pulling the ball in the air is generally a recipe for damage; let’s hope this new approach carries over to the regular season.

8. Maikel Garcia is a top-15 2B (by P/G among batters w/ 300+ PA)
Ottoneu Average Salary: $3.9
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $2.9

In 2023, Garcia posted a .344 BABIP to fuel a .299 wOBA which translated to 4.1 P/G. Last year, his BABIP cratered to .268 despite no meaningful change in his underlying batted ball metrics, and his wOBA fell to .270 and just 3.4 P/G. He hits the ball too hard and runs too well to run a BABIP that low, plus he improved his strikeout rate by six points and hit for a little more power and still couldn’t shake that bad batted ball luck. I’m betting on those improvements carrying over while also enjoying a BABIP rebound leading to a true breakout season.

9. Miguel Vargas scores the most total points among White Sox hitters
Ottoneu Average Salary: $1.6
Ottoneu Average Draft Price: $1.5

This bold prediction might come true simply by process of elimination. The White Sox are going to give Vargas every chance to succeed because he could be a core piece of their rebuild and who’s going to out hit him in their lineup? Luis Robert Jr., the oft injured star who might be traded away this summer? Andrew Benintendi, the light-hitting former star whose reputation far exceeds his actual production? Certainly not Andrew Vaughn, the former college star who hasn’t really put it all together in the big leagues yet. Vargas has really struggled himself — his career batting average across nearly 600 plate appearances is just .175 — but he’s tearing up spring training and has a wide open opportunity to prove he can stick in the big leagues.

10. Neither Roman Anthony or Kristian Campbell will be starting-caliber options at their respective positions in 2025

For the sake of the prediction, let’s say starting-caliber in Ottoneu is 4.5 P/G; that’s the 15th best 2B and the 45th best OF based on last year’s stats. But really, this prediction all comes down to opportunity. Both Anthony and Campbell are expected to be key contributors for the Red Sox sooner rather than later, but I think neither will be able to break onto the major league roster in a meaningful way this year. Campbell had an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster but fumbled it this spring and Marcelo Mayer might just be ahead of him in the pecking order now, and both those prospects are behind David Hamilton and possibly even Alex Bregman on the 2B depth chart.

Anthony has a little clearer path to playing time, especially if Ceddanne Rafaela struggles, but the Red Sox will need to fit Masataka Yoshida into the outfield picture if Rafael Devers is taking most of the at-bats at designated hitter. The addition of Bregman really mucked up the playing time opportunity for both of these top prospects. If they get a long run of playing time in 2025, things will have gone very poorly for the rest of Boston’s major league roster.