Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. There have been a bunch of unheralded starters compiling strong starts since the calendar rolled over to May. Here are eight who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues.

I covered a couple of guys listed above the last time I ran this column: Chad Patrick and Chris Paddack. They’ve both continued to pitch excellently and what might have been a hot streak has now turned into a solid two months of production. Patrick’s fastball velocity has ticked up as the season has progressed and he’s seen his strikeout rate rise as a knock-on effect. Paddack hasn’t been as good as Patrick but he’s extended his stretch of starts with two or fewer runs allowed to five games now.

Ryne Nelson has gotten an opportunity to start recently as the Diamondbacks have dealt with a number of injuries to their roster. He was probably ticketed for a return to the bullpen with the impending return of Eduardo Rodriguez but Corbin Burnes’s elbow injury should give Nelson an extended look in the rotation. He had a nice stretch of starts during the second half of the season last year — a 3.05 ERA and a 3.14 FIP from the beginning of July through the end of the season — and the hope is that he can replicate that mini-breakout this year. He won’t strikeout that many leaving him at the whim of batted ball luck, but he’s proven he can find success with that profile in the past.

Sean Burke entered the season with a bit of helium thanks to an intriguing cup of coffee last year. He was the White Sox Opening Day starter and he tossed a six-inning scoreless gem in the first game of the year. Things went downhill from there; he allowed 22 runs over his next five starts and both his ERA and FIP were up over six. His next six appearances have been much better to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 4.26 FIP. He’s still struggling with his command but he’s managed to navigate the extra traffic. The other thing to note is that the White Sox used an opener in front of Burke in his last appearance. If they continue that trend, you should be aware of the Ottoneu rules surrounding openers/followers: bulk pitchers who come in after an opener only get points if they’re slotted into a RP slot since they’re making a relief appearance.

Bailey Falter has been on an impressive run of starts since the beginning of May; over his last six starts he’s allowed a total of four runs! The underlying peripherals look pretty ugly however as he’s struck out just 19 in 35.2 innings while walking 13. He’s surviving by suppressing every batted ball put in play against him. I wouldn’t trust that he’s going to continue this hot streak.

Ryan Yarbrough has been fantastic since the Yankees moved him to their starting rotation at the start of May. He’s allowed no more than two runs in any of his five starts and has produced a fantastic 4.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His changeup and sweeper are both returning whiff rates north of 40% and he’s emphasized his cutter in his pitch mix to keep right-handed batters at bay. One thing to note for Ottoneu players: he’s allowed a home run in four of his five starts which has held him back from truly racking up the points in this format.

If you’re really desperate for some innings, Germán Márquez has looked decent-ish over his last few starts after a particularly ugly start to the season. Even at his peak, his points per innings pitched never crossed over five since his home ballpark is so tough to pitch in. I will note that he’s allowed just four home runs this year and none since May 4.

After bouncing around four teams over the past year, Adrian Houser has caught on with the White Sox this May. His first three starts for Chicago have gone as well as could be expected; he’s allowed a total of three runs while running a decent 2.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s had spurts of effectiveness in the past while he was with Milwaukee and it’s possible he’s found something that works this year. He’s added a ton of horizontal movement to his changeup and is currently running a 52.9% whiff rate with that pitch. Monitor his performance over the next few weeks and see if that pitch is still as effective once batters have a better scouting report on it.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Right now, there’s an absolute dearth of starting pitching available on the waiver wire. I’ve scraped the bottom of the barrel for these nine under-rostered pitchers — four starters and five relievers.

I covered Colin Rea the last time I ran this column and I still think he’s one of the more interesting starting pitchers out there. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball all make him a pretty interesting pick up.

Tyler Anderson isn’t flashy or fancy but he’s a veteran starter with one elite pitch, his changeup. When that pitch is working for him, he can have stretches like this where he’s able to limit hard contact and generate just enough swings and misses. He probably won’t reach the ceiling of his breakout season with the Dodgers back in 2022, but he’s a solid enough starter that can be counted on in the right matchups.

Chad Patrick has filled in capably for the Brewers as they work through all their early season injuries. He’s survived by inducing a ton of weak contact in the air, which has served him well so far, but it’s also the same reasony why his xFIP is 4.42, more than a run higher than his ERA. Still, over his last three starts, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a very good 4.67 and he’s improved as he’s adjusted to pitching in the big leagues for the first time.

Chris Paddack started off the season with two absolute stinkers, allowing 13 runs in 7.1 innings with more walks than strikeouts. In his six starts since then, he’s allowed just 10 runs in 32.1 innings with a 2.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His last start against the Giants was his best of the year; he pitched into the eighth inning, allowing just three hits while striking out six. He’s always been a bit home run prone and he’s been pretty lucky in that regard during this stretch. Still, it seems like he has his signature fastball-changeup combo working for him right now.

The Blue Jays have quietly put together one of the best relief corps in baseball and that’s largely thanks to breakout seasons from guys like Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty. Among all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings this season, Little leads all of baseball in swinging strike rate. His sinker has been devastating thanks to some mechanical deception and a ton of drop on the pitch. Fluharty might be even more interesting. As a lefty, he’s yet to allow a hit to a right-handed batter this year. Like Little, he’s got some mechanical deception aiding him and a hard cutter that has given right-handed batters fits when it’s located on the inside half of the plate. Little is a little higher on Toronto’s bullpen pecking order, but Fluharty should be seeing some high leverage work soon too.

Danny Coulombe hasn’t allowed a run in almost a full calendar year. Of course, a lot of his 2024 season was spent on the IL, but he’s now run his scoreless streak to 27 games and 26.1 innings. It took a while for the Twins to start giving him high leverage work but he’s finally working the seventh and eighth innings regularly.

The Brewers bullpen has been a bit of a work-in-progress this year after they moved on from their closer Devin Williams in the offseason. Trevor Megill has a tight hold on the ninth inning, but Nick Mears has worked his way into the high leverage mix in the seventh and eighth innings.

Ryan Borucki isn’t seeing that much high leverage work yet, but the guys in front of him in the Pirates bullpen aren’t all that impressive. The biggest difference for him this year are a new splitter and sweeper that are both returning above average whiff rates. Those two pitches have pushed his Stuff+ from merely average up to 109 on the season.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

A few general schedule notes:

• Now that we’ve reached May, I’m starting to use in-season data to calculate opponent strength.
• The Athletics have a beast of a schedule next week; not only are they playing two of the hottest offenses in baseball, they’re playing in their tiny bandbox in Sacramento. Those games should be extremely high scoring affairs. The Padres also have to face the Yankees next week, in New York to boot, but San Diego then gets to travel to Colorado. The Diamondbacks just barely avoid the double red tags, but I’d still avoid their starters against the Mets and Dodgers.
• No team has a double green week, but the Twins get close with series against the struggling Orioles and the Giants at home.

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Hopefully, these six under-rostered pitchers — three starters and three relievers — can help.

Chad covered Ryan Gusto in his Hot Right Now column yesterday. I mostly agree with his assessment:

“So yes, he has looked good so far. But with only 22.2 IP so far this year, I am more inclined to bet on his track record than his early performance with Houston. Double his walks, double his HR, and how are you feeling? There’s nothing wrong with riding the hot streak. That could both net you some short-term gains and give you time to see if that control and HR suppression are legit. But there are other SP out there I am more interested in right now.”

One thing I’d like to add is that Stuff+ really likes Gusto. All three of his fastballs are above league average by that metric and so is his slider. Stuff+ isn’t as enamored with his changeup but that pitch is returning a 37.5% whiff rate which is above average for the pitch type. Sure, the minor league track record isn’t there, but it’s possible Gusto has taken a pretty significant step forward in his development.

I do need to advise some caution because of the contact quality issues Chad mentioned and also because the Astros will likely activate Lance McCullers Jr. from the IL within a few weeks and possibly Spencer Arrighetti a few more weeks after that. It’s very likely Gusto will be relegated to the bullpen once Houston’s starting rotation gets a little more healthy. So, yes, ride the hot hand while you can, but don’t expect Gusto to be a long-term solution for your pitching staff.

I recommended Jose Quintana in my last Ottoneu Drip and I’m honestly shocked he hasn’t been rostered more. All he’s done since that write up is make three fantastic starts, allowing just three runs total. His strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t great and it seems like he’s relying on a lot of guile to get by, but the results speak for themselves.

The injury to Justin Steele forced the Cubs to add Colin Rea to their starting rotation a few weeks ago. Rea muddled through the last two years as an innings eating member of the Brewers rotation, but he has made three solid starts for the Cubs against some really impressive opponents. Against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies, he’s allowed just two runs in 13.1 innings while striking out 17. That’s enough for me to take notice.

The biggest difference is a four-seam that he’s throwing more than half the time at the expense of his sinker. His repertoire is still deep — six pitches strong — but he’s really emphasized the heater. He’s throwing it about a tick harder than last year with a little more rise and a little more cut and it’s returning a 25% whiff rate and a .334 xwOBA, both above average marks for a four-seamer. He’s also dropped his arm angle by about five degrees which has had a positive effect on the horizontal movement of all of his pitches. The wide pitch mix, arm angle change, and an improved fastball makes him a pretty interesting pick up, though I might wait to see how he does in a few more starts before rushing out to add him.

Chad also covered Will Vest in his article yesterday and I don’t really have much more to add. If you’re speculating on saves in Detroit’s bullpen, Vest is as good an investment as any other high leverage option in that ‘pen.

Reed Garrett had a mini-little breakout last summer before burning out in August. He’s still making high-leverage appearances for the Mets this year and he’s been pretty good. The strikeout rate isn’t as lofty as it was last year, but his walk rate is down and he’s only allowed a single unearned run.

Shelby Miller was finally healthy last year but his stint in Detroit’s bullpen of death could have gone better. He latched on with the Diamondbacks this year and is throwing a little harder and added a sweeper to his repertoire. He, too, has only allowed a single unearned run in 11 appearances for the Snakes and he’s already beginning to work some high leverage opportunities for them.