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Ottoneu 2026 Keeper Deadline in Review

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Last Saturday night was the Ottoneu keeper deadline. If you’re like me, you might have spent too much time the last few months weighing which players deserve a spot on your 2026 roster. A handful of last minute offseason trades ahead of the deadline got things in order and then came the chopping block. For better or worse, everything is locked in until draft day arrives for your league.

Before looking ahead towards your draft this spring, let’s take a look at what happened at the keeper deadline. There isn’t much immediately actionable information here since rosters are locked until your league’s draft, but I found it interesting to dig into the players who were cut the most and how average salaries have changed over the course of the offseason.

Most Cut Players — All Ottoneu Leagues
Player Post-Arb Roster% Post Cut Roster% Roster% Delta Post-Arb Avg Salary Post-Cut Avg Salary Avg Salary Delta
Ronny Henriquez 91.7% 12.7% -79.1% $4.82 $3.98 -$0.84
Mookie Betts 89.0% 18.1% -70.9% $56.86 $48.40 -$8.46
Lars Nootbaar 87.2% 16.6% -70.6% $10.92 $10.11 -$0.81
Triston Casas 86.9% 17.5% -69.4% $9.05 $8.38 -$0.67
Shota Imanaga 91.1% 22.9% -68.2% $22.77 $21.58 -$1.19
Austin Hays 90.8% 22.9% -67.9% $4.50 $4.00 -$0.50
Tanner Scott 84.4% 16.6% -67.8% $8.46 $7.80 -$0.66
Ha-seong Kim 78.3% 11.7% -66.5% $5.12 $4.49 -$0.63
Marcell Ozuna 78.3% 12.0% -66.2% $11.61 $10.30 -$1.31
Christian Walker 89.0% 22.9% -66.1% $12.31 $10.22 -$2.09

There aren’t a lot of surprises on the list of most cut players. It’s mostly populated with guys who were either injured in 2025 or who struggled mightily last season. When looking ahead towards this season, the uncertainty surrounding all of these players made them all easy cuts at the deadline.

A spring illness caused Mookie Betts to lose nearly 20 pounds in two weeks and forced him to miss the Dodgers’ two-game series in Japan to start the season. His conditioning never really caught up once the season got underway and he struggled for nearly the entire season. He did finish on a high note, posting a 128 wRC+ in August and September, but the early season damage was already done. As one of the most expensive players in the Ottoneu universe, a lost season from Betts was bound to have repercussions, and he wound up being the second most cut player at the deadline. Still, if we chalk up his struggles in 2025 to his spring illness, then a bounce back season in ‘26 is more than likely. The projections see a wide range of potential outcomes — ZiPS is projecting him at a 131 wRC+ while OOPSY is all the way down at 118 — but his history of production is good enough that you should expect to pay top dollar for him in the draft. His average salary after the cut deadline is nearly $50, though I’d expect that to fall a bit once he’s drafted in all those leagues where he’s available.

I really want to believe in Lars Nootbaar’s skillset. He’s got an excellent approach at the plate and his contact quality is fantastic. He lowered his groundball rate by nearly 15 points in 2025, but despite a hard hit rate of 50%, he didn’t see a big improvement in results on contact. A lot of that added air contact was hit at too high launch angles or hit to the opposite field. In other words, despite embracing “elevate and celebrate,” all that elevated contact wasn’t optimized for damage. To make matters worse, he played through a rib injury for some of the season and then had surgery to correct issues in both of his heels this offseason. I want to believe in Nootbaar, but between the injury issues and the difficulty translating his contact quality into real results, I’m not sold on a bounce back from him.

After a very successful first year in the US, Shota Imanaga took a pretty significant step back in his second season in Chicago. The twin culprits were a strikeout rate that dropped by nearly five points and a groundball rate that fell eight points. With all that extra elevated contact allowed, he saw a corresponding jump in home runs allowed that shot his FIP up by more than a run. Homers are a death knell for any pitcher in Ottoneu and so it’s no surprise to see Imanaga on the chopping block. I think it’s probably reasonable to expect a bit of a bounce back — his SIERA and xFIP were both well below his actual FIP in 2025 — but getting back to his outstanding ‘24 season is probably out of the question. As a fly ball heavy pitcher, his success will wax and wane based on his home run rate which gives him a pretty volatile profile.

Largest Drop in Average Salary — All Ottoneu Leagues
Player Roster% Delta Post-Arb Avg Salary Post Cut Avg Salary Avg Salary Delta
Mookie Betts -70.9% $56.86 $48.40 -$8.46
Ozzie Albies -61.9% $21.07 $15.08 -$5.99
Aaron Nola -58.5% $19.72 $14.83 -$4.89
Zack Wheeler -49.2% $31.61 $27.25 -$4.36
Jose Altuve -61.6% $28.89 $24.76 -$4.13
Mike Trout -58.3% $30.92 $26.81 -$4.11
Freddie Freeman -55.0% $42.93 $38.85 -$4.08
Austin Riley -45.7% $33.53 $29.93 -$3.60
Marcus Semien -35.8% $16.03 $12.44 -$3.59
Zac Gallen -58.6% $19.81 $16.25 -$3.56

The table above lists players who saw their average salaries drop the most after the cut deadline. As you’d expect, there are a bunch of aging stars and once-great players who suffered a sudden dip in performance in 2025.

Man, what happened to Ozzie Albies? You could chalk up his power outage in 2024 to a broken wrist suffered in July of that season. But then he didn’t bounce back in ‘25; his ISO dropped to a career-low .124 and he blasted only 16 home runs. Even though we only have limited bat speed data, Albies’s average bat speed dropped a full tick from 2023 to ‘24 and it didn’t bounce back last year when he was supposedly healthy. His contact quality has never really been all that great but he made the most of it every season until last year. He’s still only 29 years old, but unless he rediscovers an extra gear with his bat speed, I’m afraid his best days are already in the past.

Oh look, another Braves hitter who really struggled last year. At least with Austin Riley, you can point to a hand injury in 2024 and three separate core injuries in ‘25 to explain his struggles. Then again, his production at the plate had already started to decline slightly in 2023, and really reached fever pitch when his plate discipline started slipping in ‘24. It deteriorated further in 2025 when he got more aggressive at the plate while running a slightly higher whiff rate. The good news is that his contact quality was still elite which means the only thing he needs to work on is his approach. Of all the guys on the two lists in this article, Riley is the one I’m most confident in predicting a bounce back this year.

Finally, here’s a long list of players cut in more than 50% of all Ottoneu leagues.

Players Cut in More than 50% of Ottoneu Leagues
Player Post-Arb Roster% Post-Cut Roster% Roster% Delta
Ronny Henriquez 91.7% 12.7% -79.1%
Mookie Betts 89.0% 18.1% -70.9%
Lars Nootbaar 87.2% 16.6% -70.6%
Triston Casas 86.9% 17.5% -69.4%
Shota Imanaga 91.1% 22.9% -68.2%
Austin Hays 90.8% 22.9% -67.9%
Tanner Scott 84.4% 16.6% -67.8%
Ha-seong Kim 78.3% 11.7% -66.5%
Marcell Ozuna 78.3% 12.0% -66.2%
Christian Walker 89.0% 22.9% -66.1%
Coby Mayo 92.4% 28.0% -64.3%
Jesús Sánchez 84.1% 19.9% -64.2%
Luis Arraez 86.5% 22.6% -64.0%
Trevor Larnach 82.6% 19.0% -63.6%
Lucas Giolito 89.9% 26.8% -63.1%
Nick Castellanos 71.3% 9.3% -61.9%
Ozzie Albies 88.4% 26.5% -61.9%
Jose Altuve 92.4% 30.7% -61.6%
Kodai Senga 80.1% 20.8% -59.3%
Cedric Mullins 73.7% 14.5% -59.2%
Bryan Reynolds 90.5% 31.9% -58.6%
Zac Gallen 90.2% 31.6% -58.6%
Aaron Nola 81.3% 22.9% -58.5%
Anthony Volpe 79.5% 21.1% -58.4%
Mike Trout 90.5% 32.2% -58.3%
Justin Verlander 64.8% 6.6% -58.2%
Gavin Lux 74.6% 17.2% -57.4%
Josh Lowe 84.7% 27.7% -57.0%
Luke Weaver 84.4% 28.0% -56.4%
Brandon Pfaadt 75.8% 19.6% -56.3%
Mark Vientos 91.7% 35.5% -56.2%
Tyler O’Neill 72.2% 16.3% -55.9%
José Berríos 68.5% 12.7% -55.9%
Wenceel Pérez 71.9% 16.3% -55.6%
Yusei Kikuchi 70.6% 15.4% -55.3%
Adley Rutschman 87.2% 31.9% -55.2%
Luis Castillo 85.9% 30.7% -55.2%
Isaac Collins 83.8% 28.6% -55.2%
J.T. Realmuto 77.4% 22.3% -55.1%
Freddie Freeman 93.9% 38.9% -55.0%
Grayson Rodriguez 96.9% 42.2% -54.8%
Jeremiah Jackson 67.0% 12.7% -54.3%
Tommy Edman 67.0% 13.0% -54.0%
Shawn Armstrong 65.4% 11.7% -53.7%
Taj Bradley 71.9% 18.4% -53.5%
Teoscar Hernández 93.3% 40.1% -53.2%
Spencer Steer 91.1% 38.0% -53.2%
Max Scherzer 59.0% 6.3% -52.7%
Bryce Harper 96.3% 44.0% -52.4%
Christian Moore 76.8% 24.7% -52.1%
Josh Jung 71.6% 19.9% -51.7%
Bailey Ober 67.0% 15.4% -51.6%
Clayton Kershaw 53.5% 2.1% -51.4%
Tyler Freeman 67.9% 16.6% -51.3%
Nick Gonzales 61.8% 10.5% -51.2%
Michael Kopech 59.0% 7.8% -51.2%
Yu Darvish 55.0% 3.9% -51.1%
Royce Lewis 93.9% 43.1% -50.8%
Dalton Rushing 84.4% 33.7% -50.7%
Chris Bassitt 70.6% 20.2% -50.5%
Matt Strahm 89.3% 38.9% -50.4%
Sean Manaea 77.4% 27.1% -50.3%

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Relief Pitchers

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push finally wraps up with a look at relief pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Here are my general thoughts about relief pitchers in Ottoneu points and 4×4 leagues: underlying skills matter a lot more than a pitcher’s place in the bullpen pecking order. Chasing saves isn’t as important as it might be in 5×5 leagues where saves make up 20% of the pitching categories. Teams will generally use their most skilled relievers in the highest leverage situations which means if you target relievers with strong skills, saves and holds (and the bonus points associated with them in Ottoneu points leagues) will follow.

Relievers are also the most volatile part of your roster and they’re the most fungible players in the format. That means even if you invest heavily to build an elite bullpen, a team who spends $10 total on 5 or 6 relievers could outperform your team if they find the right mix of breakouts and sleepers. Be ready to churn through a bunch of relievers throughout the season as pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness. That process is so much easier if you’re not invested into a bunch of high priced closers.

Ottoneu Points RP Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Projected Role Projected Pts Pts/IP
$21-$27 1 Mason Miller CL 614.8 9.66
$15-$20 2 Aroldis Chapman CL 547.5 9.22
$15-$20 3 Edwin Díaz CL 590.2 9.14
$15-$20 4 Cade Smith CL 643.9 9.04
$15-$20 5 Andrés Muñoz CL 563.3 8.96
$15-$20 6 Jhoan Duran CL 612.2 8.84
$10-$14 7 Devin Williams CL 536.5 8.66
$10-$14 8 Abner Uribe CL 618.1 8.56
$10-$14 9 Josh Hader CL 507.6 8.50
$10-$14 10 David Bednar CL 537.7 8.48
$6-$9 11 Ryan Walker CL 498.0 7.95
$6-$9 12 Daniel Palencia CL 481.4 7.91
$6-$9 13 Riley O’Brien CL? 447.5 7.83
$6-$9 14 Pete Fairbanks CL 468.0 7.83
$6-$9 15 Raisel Iglesias CL 501.6 7.77
$6-$9 16 Dennis Santana CL 526.7 7.76
$6-$9 17 Seranthony Domínguez CL 471.5 7.66
$6-$9 18 Emilio Pagán CL 493.8 7.58
$6-$9 19 Robert Garcia CL 475.3 7.56
$6-$9 20 Bryan Abreu SU8 524.7 7.55
$6-$9 21 Ryan Helsley CL 449.4 7.47
$6-$9 22 Gabe Speier MID 433.2 7.44
$6-$9 23 Jeff Hoffman CL 477.3 7.41
$6-$9 24 Griffin Jax CL? 489.8 7.37
$6-$9 25 Garrett Whitlock SU8 516.4 7.28
$6-$9 26 Adrian Morejon SU8 504.0 7.25
$3-$5 27 Clayton Beeter CL? 441.1 7.52
$3-$5 28 Trevor Megill SU8 409.4 7.19
$3-$5 29 Carlos Estévez CL 458.1 7.19
$3-$5 30 Grant Taylor SU8 459.6 7.10
$3-$5 31 Matt Brash SU8 404.6 7.06
$3-$5 32 Fernando Cruz SU7 385.7 7.04
$3-$5 33 Garrett Cleavinger CL? 441.2 7.04
$3-$5 34 Jeremiah Estrada SU7 493.7 7.01
$3-$5 35 Phil Maton SU8 433.2 6.99
$3-$5 36 Robert Suarez SU8 454.7 6.92
$3-$5 37 Will Vest SU8 465.6 6.90
$1-$2 38 Robert Stephenson CL? 398.9 7.39
$1-$2 39 Justin Topa CL? 425.2 7.16
$1-$2 40 Andrew Saalfrank CL 367.8 7.00
$1-$2 41 Hogan Harris CL? 507.1 6.94
$1-$2 42 Hunter Harvey SU7 349.5 6.90
$1-$2 43 Victor Vodnik CL 403.9 6.89
$1-$2 44 Shawn Armstrong SU7 467.4 6.84
$1-$2 45 Brendon Little MID 416.1 6.79
$1-$2 46 Alex Vesia SU7 409.2 6.76
$1-$2 47 Matt Svanson SU7 439.8 6.75
$1-$2 48 Camilo Doval SU8 435.6 6.75
$1-$2 49 Jose A. Ferrer SU7 487.7 6.74
$1-$2 50 Aaron Ashby MID 469.2 6.74
$1-$2 51 Matt Strahm SU7 423.3 6.70
$1-$2 52 José Alvarado SU8 352.8 6.64
$1-$2 53 A.J. Minter SU7 360.0 6.61
$1-$2 54 Eduard Bazardo MID 471.1 6.59
$1-$2 55 Edwin Uceta CL? 475.1 6.58
$1-$2 56 Gregory Soto SU8 390.8 6.58
$1-$2 57 Louis Varland MID 534.4 6.55
$1-$2 58 Jared Koenig SU7 438.5 6.54
$1-$2 59 Orion Kerkering MID 404.2 6.53
$1-$2 60 Yimi García SU8 321.9 6.52
$1-$2 61 JoJo Romero CL? 401.2 6.50
$1-$2 62 Andrew Kittredge SU8 384.9 6.46
$1-$2 63 Erik Sabrowski MID 327.3 6.46
$1-$2 64 Brad Keller SU7 460.1 6.40
$1-$2 65 Chris Martin SU8 304.9 6.36
$1-$2 66 Kyle Finnegan SU7 377.0 6.33
$1-$2 67 Tanner Scott SU8 380.0 6.25
$1-$2 68 Luke Weaver SU8 414.9 6.22
$1-$2 69 Kenley Jansen CL? 353.0 6.15
$1-$2 70 Hunter Gaddis SU8 430.9 6.14
$0-$1 71 Randy Rodríguez INJ 375.1 7.44
$0-$1 72 Félix Bautista INJ 227.5 7.40
$0-$1 73 Ronny Henriquez INJ 519.5 7.05
$0-$1 74 Justin Martinez INJ 316.2 7.05
$0-$1 75 Taylor Rogers CL? 385.8 7.03
$0-$1 76 Jason Adam INJ 384.5 6.81
$0-$1 77 Evan Phillips INJ 266.8 6.66
$0-$1 78 Ben Joyce INJ 258.9 6.64
$0-$1 79 Aaron Bummer MID 369.0 6.61
$0-$1 80 Graham Ashcraft SU7 422.0 6.46
$0-$1 81 Joe Jimenez INJ 279.8 6.40
$0-$1 82 Anthony Bender MID 351.0 6.40
$0-$1 83 Lucas Erceg SU8 385.3 6.38
$0-$1 84 Caleb Ferguson MID 383.2 6.37
$0-$1 85 Tyler Kinley MID 414.3 6.33
$0-$1 86 Brant Hurter MID 432.0 6.31
$0-$1 87 Cole Sands CL? 438.9 6.31
$0-$1 88 Bryan King SU7 412.6 6.26
$0-$1 89 Tyler Rogers SU7 454.2 6.18
$0 90 David Robertson ?? 258.5 6.22
$0 91 Tony Santillan SU8 431.8 6.17
$0 92 Kevin Ginkel SU7 316.3 6.16
$0 93 Justin Slaten SU7 312.7 6.13
$0 94 Huascar Brazobán MID 361.1 6.05
$0 95 Nick Mears MID 343.5 6.03
$0 96 José Buttó MID 392.3 6.01
$0 97 Kirby Yates CL? 295.9 6.00
$0 98 Jordan Leasure SU7 376.8 5.98
$0 99 Justin Sterner CL? 381.7 5.98
$0 100 Mark Leiter Jr. CL? 336.4 5.96
$0 101 Juan Mejia SU7 381.9 5.95
$0 102 Ryan Thompson SU8 315.6 5.93
$0 103 Calvin Faucher SU8 359.7 5.92
$0 104 Brenan Hanifee MID 361.6 5.91
$0 105 Isaac Mattson SU7 345.5 5.91
$0 106 Jimmy Herget SU8 464.4 5.84
$0 107 Yennier Cano ?? 327.4 5.84
$0 108 Tyler Holton MID 439.6 5.81
$0 109 Cole Winn SU7 354.3 5.79
$0 110 Brock Burke MID 354.3 5.74
$0 111 Joel Peguero SU8 312.7 5.66
$0 112 Keegan Akin SU7 364.3 5.64
$0 113 Michael Kopech INJ 357.7 5.61
$0 114 Porter Hodge ?? 277.4 5.57
$0 115 Jordan Romano MID 283.1 5.49
$0 116 Tommy Kahnle ?? 330.5 5.48

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Starting Pitchers

Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) pitches the ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at Truist Park.
Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push shifts to the mound with a look at starting pitchers. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/IP. Points per innings pitched is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating pitchers in Ottoneu but there are plenty of factors that will affect a player’s ranking outside of their raw projection. Injury risk, projected playing time and role, age, and future value are all things that need to be taken into account when evaluating pitchers.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected P/IP but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier.

Ottoneu Points SP Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Projected Pts Pts/IP Notes
$45-$54 1 Tarik Skubal 1181.2 6.12 Arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now. Dominant fastball and three swing-and-miss secondary pitches.
$45-$54 2 Paul Skenes 1120.5 6.09 Arguably better than Skubal and definitely younger. Strikeout rate took a tiny step backwards in 2025 and his fastball isn’t as dominant.
$36-$44 3 Garrett Crochet 1094.7 5.71 Proved health concerns were a thing of the past in 2025. Best slider in baseball but can be a little home run prone.
$28-$35 4 Chris Sale 914.3 5.78 Projected to be #3 pitcher by P/IP but there are injury and workload concerns.
$28-$35 5 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 869.5 5.49 Fantastic underlying skills, despite small bump in walk rate. Overall value hampered by volume concerns.
$28-$35 6 Shohei Ohtani 605.5 5.42 If Ohtani was only a pitcher, this is where he’d rank based on his P/IP ceiling. Of course, the question is how many innings he’ll actually pitch in 2026.
$28-$35 7 Cristopher Sánchez 1024.4 5.33 Followed up breakout 2024 with an ever better season in ’25. Pretty ideal profile for Ottoneu: high strikeouts, low walks, high groundball rate.
$28-$35 8 Blake Snell 760.2 5.32 Strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since 2017 but was still excellent in limited innings. Like every Dodgers starter, the question is volume.
$28-$35 9 Logan Gilbert 888.2 5.28 Big spike in strikeout rate came with a bunch more home runs. His splitter is an incredible pitch, but the slider and fastball can get hit hard at times.
$28-$35 10 Tyler Glasnow 697.6 5.23 Another Dodgers starter with workload concerns, but more importantly, his walk rate spiked and strikeout rate fell in 2025. His slider took a significant step backwards.
$28-$35 11 Logan Webb 1058.2 5.20 A metronome who got even better in 2025. Improved his strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate low and groundball rate high.
$28-$35 12 Hunter Greene 831.9 5.18 A groin injury derailed what was looking like a breakout season. Figured out how to locate his slider and his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved significantly.
$21-$27 13 Zack Wheeler 859.5 5.62 Thoracic outlet surgery throws his entire future up in the air — and he was already entering his age-36 season. Monitor his health reports in the spring.
$21-$27 14 Cole Ragans 881.4 5.55 Might have been the hardest pitcher to rank. Major shoulder injury last year throws his health into question. Big improvements in his underlying skills — career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio — but BABIP ballooned over .350.
$21-$27 15 Jacob deGrom 898.3 5.12 Finally healthy for an entire season but skills deteriorated a bit. Still very good, but not elite anymore.
$21-$27 16 Chase Burns 592.3 5.12 Massive ceiling we got a glimpse of in 2025. Is the repertoire deep enough to be successful as a frontline starter?
$21-$27 17 Max Fried 949.0 5.11 Had an excellent debut season in New York. Almost as metronomic as Webb.
$21-$27 18 Kyle Bradish 694.5 5.11 Returned from Tommy John surgery to make 6 promising starts in 2025. All his skills looked intact.
$21-$27 19 Hunter Brown 919.5 5.10 Followed up breakout 2024 with an ever better season in ’25. Strikeout rate increase wasn’t supported by enough additional whiffs.
$21-$27 20 Bryan Woo 917.8 5.10 Two fantastic fastballs and a developing repertoire of secondary weapons. Consistently good every week.
$21-$27 21 Nathan Eovaldi 811.7 5.02 Health is a big question but he put together his best season of his career in 2025 before getting sidelined.
$21-$27 22 Spencer Schwellenbach 731.6 5.02 Should be healthy to start 2026 after elbow fracture. Showed fantastic skills across two half seasons in ’24 and ’25.
$21-$27 23 Dylan Cease 909.8 4.99 Can be extremely inconsistent from start to start, but the strikeouts give him a solid foundation.
$21-$27 24 Framber Valdez 934.5 4.98 Elite groundball rate means fewer home runs — good in Ottoneu — but his strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped a bit in 2025.
$21-$27 25 Jesús Luzardo 866.9 4.96 Healthy in 2025 and put up a season very similar to his breakout in 2023.
$21-$27 26 George Kirby 842.0 4.94 Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Signature command slipped a little bit but he might have found a breaking ball that works for him.
$21-$27 27 Brandon Woodruff 682.4 4.92 Returned from shoulder injury with skills mostly intact. Strikeout-to-walk ratio was fantastic despite a dip in overall Stuff+.
$21-$27 28 Joe Ryan 828.2 4.86 Really struggled with a home run problem during the final two months of 2025 (12 HRs in 10 starts, 5.01 FIP). Fastball and secondaries all looked good, so it could have been just bad luck.
$15-$20 29 Kris Bubic 655.7 4.88 Breakout season interrupted by a shoulder injury in July. If he’s healthy, his underlying skills look solid.
$15-$20 30 Freddy Peralta 860.7 4.86 Solid skills across the board but high fly ball rate leads to a few too many home runs.
$15-$20 31 Eury Pérez 661.5 4.84 Up-and-down ceiling after returning from Tommy John surgery. Huge Stuff+ darling with a massive ceiling.
$15-$20 32 Sonny Gray 852.4 4.84 Veteran who has been able to stay effective as he ages. Fastball dipped below 92 mph in 2025 and new home park in Boston won’t do him any favors.
$15-$20 33 Nolan McLean 678.6 4.75 Brilliant debut at the end of the season in 2025. Managed to improve command in the big leagues to go along with high strikeout and groundball rates.
$15-$20 34 Drew Rasmussen 732.5 4.74 Despite workload limits, still pitched 150 innings in 2025 with solid underlying skills. Wore down towards the end of the season.
$15-$20 35 Jacob Misiorowski 603.2 4.73 The raw stuff is undeniable but the lack of command is holding him back. Strikeout rate is high enough to offset the free passes but there are volume concerns too.
$15-$20 36 Ranger Suárez 763.3 4.72 Command improved in 2025 to go along with decent strikeout rate and good groundball rate.
$15-$20 37 Pablo López 787.8 4.72 Elbow injury in 2025 turned out to be minor, returned to make 3 starts in September. Career best P/IP was likely driven by good home run luck, not any skill improvements.
$15-$20 38 Nick Pivetta 844.5 4.69 Enjoyed a career-best season in 2025 thanks to a big drop in home runs allowed. Fly ball heavy batted ball profile is always dangerous.
$15-$20 39 Gerrit Cole 623.5 4.67 Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Track record speaks for itself but still questions about his skills returning after injury.
$15-$20 40 Michael King 735.5 4.65 Shoulder injury derailed his season in 2025 but stikeout-to-walk ratio wasn’t too affected. Health still a question.
$15-$20 41 Kevin Gausman 853.8 4.59 Bounced back a bit in 2025 with improved strikeout-to-walk ratio. BABIP allowed dropped to .262 which is likely to regress upwards.
$10-$14 42 Emmet Sheehan 518.4 5.02 Like every other Dodgers starter, he has workload concerns. Took a huge step forward in 2025 with a pair of fantastic secondary pitches.
$10-$14 43 Justin Steele 496.2 4.84 Coming off Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. He was great for three years with his weird fastball but needs to prove he’s healthy.
$10-$14 44 Trey Yesavage 644.4 4.61 Incredible debut in September and through the playoffs. Super weird release point didn’t help his fastball but his splitted was a monster. Will the Blue Jays manage his workload in ’26?
$10-$14 45 Edward Cabrera 609.9 4.57 Finally figured out his command issues, dropped his walk rate by 4 points. Health is still a big question.
$10-$14 46 Spencer Strider 696.5 4.57 Didn’t regain his fastball after Tommy John surgery and his whole arsenal suffered. If the velocity is back, he could be a steal. If not, he might not even rise to this level of value.
$10-$14 47 Jack Flaherty 744.1 4.56 Strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped a bit in 2025 after resurgent season in ’24. Great breaking balls but can be a bit erratic.
$10-$14 48 Carlos Rodón 781.9 4.53 Coming off offseason elbow surgery and will probably miss the first few months of the season. Decent skills across the board when healthy.
$10-$14 49 Nick Lodolo 667.6 4.52 Just had the best season of his career in 2025. Improved command and solid strikeout rate but needs to stay healthy.
$10-$14 50 MacKenzie Gore 762.8 4.49 Huge strikeout ceiling thanks to elite secondary pitches but wore down during the second half of 2025 (2.96 FIP in 1H, 5.49 in 2H).
$6-$9 51 Corbin Burnes 612.7 4.85 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Was struggling with his command in 2025 before the injury.
$6-$9 52 DJ Herz 281.2 4.72 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
$6-$9 53 Reese Olson 560.3 4.68 Will be returning from a shoulder injury but should be healthy for spring training. Solid skills across the board when healthy.
$6-$9 54 Grayson Rodriguez 583.5 4.64 Missed the entire 2025 season with multiple arm issues. Had shown some promising skills a few years ago but health throws it all into question. New home in Angels Stadium won’t help either.
$6-$9 55 Connelly Early 256.9 4.62 Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. Currently buried on the Red Sox depth chart but should force his way into an opportunity sooner rather than later.
$6-$9 56 Braxton Ashcraft 582.8 4.61 Top prospect who finally got a shot to start in August. His fastball is merely okay but his secondaries look great. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
$6-$9 57 Shane McClanahan 634.3 4.58 Hasn’t pitched since August 2023 thanks to Tommy John surgery and a triceps injury. I have no idea what to expect from him if he’s healthy (which isn’t a guarantee).
$6-$9 58 Jonah Tong 199.5 4.56 Top prospect who had a bit of a rough debut in September. Currently buried on the Mets depth chart and needs a third pitch to raise his ceiling.
$6-$9 59 Jared Jones 448.4 4.53 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery sometime midseason. Had an encouraging debut in 2024 before the injury but his spot in the rotation isn’t guaranteed until he’s healthy.
$6-$9 60 José Soriano 748.4 4.51 Four swing-and-miss secondary pitches but can’t generate strikeouts because his pitch mix is too sinker heavy. Elite groundball rate provides a solid floor.
$6-$9 61 Joey Cantillo 567.1 4.50 Looked great once he earned a chance to start in July. Command is a little shaky but has a legit weapon in his changeup.
$6-$9 62 Matthew Boyd 732.5 4.47 Finally healthy for the first time since 2019. Strikeout-to-walk ratio was excellent despite a lower strikeout rate.
$6-$9 63 Bubba Chandler 637.9 4.46 Top prospect who had a very exciting debut in September. His fastball looks elite, he’s got excellent command, but his secondaries need to develop a bit more. Will he get a chance in the rotation out of spring training?
$6-$9 64 Cam Schlittler 582.1 4.46 Excellent debut in 2025. Solid three pitch mix but lack of command hurts his ceiling a bit.
$6-$9 65 Sean Manaea 649.9 4.45 Cut his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider. A career-high strikeout-to-walk ratio was great to see but he also suffered from a massive home run spike.
$6-$9 66 Joe Musgrove 632.1 4.43 Will be returning from Tommy John surgery but should be healthy for spring training. Solid skills across the board when healthy.
$6-$9 67 Kodai Senga 532.6 4.40 Hamstring injury derailed his season and couldn’t get his mechanics right after returning. We’ve seen the ceiling, but I’m not sure he’ll bounce back.
$6-$9 68 Luis Castillo 792.9 4.38 Velocity dropped in 2025 and strikeout rate dropped 3 points for the second season in a row. Decent skills otherwise, but probably won’t reach his ceiling again.
$6-$9 69 Cade Horton 552.3 4.37 Excellent debut in 2025 but a lot of his success seemed to be BABIP driven. Solid command, deep repertoire, great secondaries give him a decent floor and potential for high ceiling.
$6-$9 70 David Peterson 734.2 4.37 Decent skills across the board. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but command isn’t good enough to raise his ceiling too high.
$6-$9 71 Trevor Rogers 660.3 4.37 Had an absolutely incredible run to finish 2025. Health will always be a question but showed off the same skills from his 2021 breakout.
$6-$9 72 Tanner Bibee 778.0 4.35 Despite strong Stuff+ grades, he never seemed to be able to put it all together in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 5 points and he allowed a bunch more home runs.
$6-$9 73 Gavin Williams 716.8 4.34 Second half success was largely BABIP driven. Command is still lacking but his deep repertoire gives him something to build on.
$6-$9 74 Ian Seymour 410.2 4.33 Looked great once he earned a chance to start in August. Has an excellent changeup but might get squeezed out of the rotation to start the season.
$6-$9 75 Ryan Pepiot 709.4 4.31 Went through some big ups and downs in 2025 and was hurt by Steinbrenner Field. Decent skills across the board and should be better back in Tropicana Field.
$6-$9 76 Robbie Ray 760.3 4.30 Finally healthy after Tommy John surgery in 2023. Didn’t have the same strikeout ceiling we’ve been used to and his command was a little shaky.
$6-$9 77 Shane Bieber 584.3 4.30 Returned from Tommy John surgery to make 7 promising starts in 2025. All his skills looked intact but suffered from a home run problem.
$6-$9 78 Clay Holmes 695.8 4.26 The transition to the rotation worked out but he wore down as the season went on. High groundball rate keeps the ball in the park, but strikeout-to-walk ratio is merely okay.
$6-$9 79 Zac Gallen 792.9 4.21 Suffered through the worst season of his career in 2025. Strikeout rate dropped 4 points, but still could bounce back if he can figure out the whiff rate issues.
$6-$9 80 Sandy Alcantara 757.8 4.16 Got stronger as the season wore on. Strikeout rate ticked up and walk rate ticked down. We know what his ceiling looks like.
$3-$5 81 Reynaldo López 601.2 4.71
$3-$5 82 Logan Henderson 385.6 4.55
$3-$5 83 Robert Gasser 245.2 4.44
$3-$5 84 Braxton Garrett 573.5 4.44
$3-$5 85 Reid Detmers 545.0 4.39
$3-$5 86 Brandon Sproat 211.4 4.38
$3-$5 87 Cody Ponce 폰세 683.5 4.35
$3-$5 88 Grant Holmes 401.2 4.30
$3-$5 89 Michael Soroka 528.4 4.28
$3-$5 90 Merrill Kelly 켈리 741.9 4.27
$3-$5 91 Janson Junk 378.7 4.25
$3-$5 92 Chad Patrick 566.8 4.22
$3-$5 93 Hurston Waldrep 541.8 4.22
$3-$5 94 Mike Burrows 529.7 4.22
$3-$5 95 Landen Roupp 485.2 4.21
$3-$5 96 Tyler Mahle 548.7 4.20
$3-$5 97 Shane Baz 662.2 4.18
$3-$5 98 Ryne Nelson 661.5 4.18
$3-$5 99 Mitch Keller 735.1 4.13
$3-$5 100 Michael Wacha 686.9 4.13
$3-$5 101 Aaron Nola 706.7 4.13
$3-$5 102 Shane Smith 650.9 4.12
$3-$5 103 Bryce Miller 574.1 4.10
$3-$5 104 Noah Cameron 586.3 4.08
$3-$5 105 Yusei Kikuchi 717.0 4.05
$3-$5 106 Will Warren 578.0 4.04
$3-$5 107 Luis Gil 507.3 4.03
$3-$5 108 Casey Mize 603.7 4.03
$3-$5 109 Shota Imanaga 614.7 4.03
$3-$5 110 Andrew Abbott 632.1 3.94
$3-$5 111 Tatsuya Imai 602.7 3.94
$3-$5 112 Roki Sasaki 462.7 3.92
$1-$2 113 Ricky Tiedemann 186.0 4.62
$1-$2 114 Kai-Wei Teng 139.6 4.42
$1-$2 115 Sean Newcomb 432.6 4.36
$1-$2 116 Payton Tolle 326.2 4.35
$1-$2 117 Christian Scott 209.9 4.29
$1-$2 118 Joe Boyle 371.9 4.27
$1-$2 119 David Festa 227.4 4.27
$1-$2 120 Kyle Leahy 478.0 4.25
$1-$2 121 Thomas White 116.8 4.23
$1-$2 122 AJ Blubaugh 215.7 4.22
$1-$2 123 Stephen Kolek 368.2 4.19
$1-$2 124 Foster Griffin 589.1 4.16
$1-$2 125 Parker Messick 469.7 4.15
$1-$2 126 Taj Bradley 530.3 4.12
$1-$2 127 Ryan Weathers 503.8 4.11
$1-$2 128 Brady Singer 709.8 4.09
$1-$2 129 Chris Bassitt 696.9 4.09
$1-$2 130 Jacob Lopez 510.0 4.09
$1-$2 131 Johan Oviedo 437.3 4.08
$1-$2 132 Quinn Priester 627.9 4.07
$1-$2 133 Ryan Weiss 와이스 367.4 4.07
$1-$2 134 Andrew Painter 526.2 4.05
$1-$2 135 Kutter Crawford 528.7 4.03
$1-$2 136 Brayan Bello 667.5 4.03
$1-$2 137 Cade Cavalli 527.3 4.02
$1-$2 138 Jack Leiter 617.3 4.02
$1-$2 139 Troy Melton 444.8 3.99
$1-$2 140 Zebby Matthews 433.2 3.99
$1-$2 141 Nick Martinez 612.0 3.97
$1-$2 142 Robby Snelling 359.6 3.96
$1-$2 143 Seth Lugo 653.4 3.94
$1-$2 144 Brandon Pfaadt 684.0 3.93
$1-$2 145 Kumar Rocker 446.0 3.86
$1-$2 146 Bailey Ober 565.1 3.86
$1-$2 147 Spencer Arrighetti 368.8 3.84
$1-$2 148 Matthew Liberatore 551.6 3.84
$1-$2 149 Lucas Giolito 604.0 3.72
$1-$2 150 Zach Eflin 509.8 3.65
$0-$1 151 Seth Hernandez N/A N/A
$0-$1 152 Kade Anderson N/A N/A
$0-$1 153 Liam Doyle N/A N/A
$0-$1 154 Jamie Arnold N/A N/A
$0-$1 155 Gage Jump N/A N/A
$0-$1 156 Jarlin Susana N/A N/A
$0-$1 157 Tyler Bremner N/A N/A
$0-$1 158 Tylor Megill 386.1 4.71
$0-$1 159 Clarke Schmidt 363.7 4.64
$0-$1 160 Ben Brown 339.8 4.50
$0-$1 161 Jakob Junis 300.4 4.44
$0-$1 162 Ronel Blanco 464.3 4.43
$0-$1 163 DL Hall 191.4 4.29
$0-$1 164 AJ Smith-Shawver 148.6 4.17
$0-$1 165 Tanner Houck 563.2 4.16
$0-$1 166 Chris Murphy 154.4 4.16
$0-$1 167 Kyle Harrison 325.7 4.12
$0-$1 168 Tobias Myers 342.6 4.11
$0-$1 169 Patrick Sandoval 472.1 4.11
$0-$1 170 Eric Lauer 라우어 320.4 4.10
$0-$1 171 Trevor McDonald 236.7 4.09
$0-$1 172 Quinn Mathews 182.2 4.08
$0-$1 173 Keaton Winn 155.1 4.08
$0-$1 174 Gavin Stone 383.1 4.02
$0-$1 175 Cody Bradford 379.8 4.02
$0-$1 176 Jacob Latz 442.7 4.02
$0-$1 177 Steven Matz 454.9 4.01
$0-$1 178 J.T. Ginn 349.2 3.99
$0-$1 179 Ryan Bergert 274.2 3.92
$0-$1 180 Javier Assad 352.0 3.91
$0-$1 181 Dustin May 552.5 3.90
$0-$1 182 Michael McGreevy 495.1 3.90
$0-$1 183 Simeon Woods Richardson 475.9 3.86
$0-$1 184 Dean Kremer 609.8 3.86
$0-$1 185 Adrian Houser 510.1 3.86
$0-$1 186 Hunter Dobbins 348.1 3.84
$0-$1 187 Hayden Birdsong 243.3 3.82
$0-$1 188 Max Meyer 439.1 3.81
$0-$1 189 Blade Tidwell 111.5 3.80
$0-$1 190 Colin Rea 494.8 3.78
$0-$1 191 Sawyer Gipson-Long 185.2 3.78
$0-$1 192 Brad Lord 541.5 3.77
$0-$1 193 Rhett Lowder 306.5 3.77
$0-$1 194 Tyler Wells 352.6 3.76
$0-$1 195 Luis Severino 653.3 3.76
$0-$1 196 Jameson Taillon 575.3 3.76
$0-$1 197 José Berríos 572.9 3.75
$0-$1 198 Aaron Civale 509.2 3.75
$0-$1 199 Max Scherzer 443.4 3.74
$0-$1 200 Noah Schultz 69.9 3.73
$0-$1 201 Andre Pallante 544.1 3.72
$0-$1 202 Cade Povich 302.5 3.69
$0-$1 203 Mick Abel 359.1 3.69
$0-$1 204 Luis Morales 373.7 3.62
$0-$1 205 Yilber Díaz 126.0 3.61
$0-$1 206 Eduardo Rodriguez 508.7 3.57
$0-$1 207 Cristian Javier 479.6 3.55
$0-$1 208 Jackson Jobe 153.9 3.14
$0 209 Hagen Smith N/A N/A
$0 210 John Means 110.0 5.12
$0 211 Yu Darvish 359.8 4.13
$0 212 Alex Cobb 328.2 4.06
$0 213 Jhony Brito 168.0 3.93
$0 214 Ty Madden 102.4 3.93
$0 215 Hayden Wesneski 189.2 3.92
$0 216 Justin Verlander 554.9 3.88
$0 217 Cooper Criswell 291.3 3.87
$0 218 Jordan Wicks 177.6 3.86
$0 219 Ryan Yarbrough 298.5 3.76
$0 220 Charlie Morton 480.6 3.76
$0 221 Matt Waldron 369.9 3.75
$0 222 Jon Gray 462.3 3.74
$0 223 Spencer Turnbull 245.1 3.72
$0 224 Kyle Wright 328.9 3.69
$0 225 Joey Wentz 282.9 3.65
$0 226 Ben Lively 라이블리 410.3 3.64
$0 227 Paul Blackburn 242.5 3.62
$0 228 Griffin Canning 476.3 3.61
$0 229 Zack Littell 623.5 3.60
$0 230 Joe Ross 204.4 3.60
$0 231 Jordan Montgomery 393.2 3.59
$0 232 Erick Fedde 페디 559.2 3.57
$0 233 Yoendrys Gómez 276.8 3.55
$0 234 Bryce Elder 408.9 3.55
$0 235 Lance McCullers Jr. 382.8 3.55
$0 236 Ryan Gusto 264.7 3.55
$0 237 Slade Cecconi 494.7 3.53
$0 238 Richard Fitts 332.1 3.52
$0 239 Kyle Hart 하트 210.4 3.52
$0 240 Luis Medina 363.7 3.49
$0 241 Jose Quintana 505.4 3.48
$0 242 Jeffrey Springs 581.6 3.48
$0 243 Mason Barnett 163.2 3.47
$0 244 Logan Evans 238.2 3.46
$0 245 Davis Martin 499.7 3.46
$0 246 Bailey Falter 367.7 3.44
$0 247 Mitch Spence 326.9 3.43
$0 248 Chayce McDermott 65.0 3.43
$0 249 Nestor Cortes 455.4 3.42
$0 250 Anthony Kay 465.6 3.41
$0 251 Mitchell Parker 439.0 3.40
$0 252 Sean Burke 490.2 3.39
$0 253 Ryan Feltner 395.0 3.38
$0 254 Logan Allen로건 436.9 3.37
$0 255 Patrick Corbin 519.0 3.37
$0 256 Martín Pérez 420.6 3.37
$0 257 Marcus Stroman 455.6 3.36
$0 258 JP Sears 478.6 3.34
$0 259 Emerson Hancock 235.8 3.34
$0 260 Alek Manoah 330.6 3.34
$0 261 Michael Lorenzen 472.9 3.34
$0 262 Keider Montero 296.9 3.33
$0 263 Mitch Farris 85.9 3.32
$0 264 Osvaldo Bido 206.5 3.30
$0 265 Bowden Francis 215.3 3.29
$0 266 Landon Knack 148.7 3.29
$0 267 Chris Paddack 430.0 3.27
$0 268 J.P. France 189.8 3.26
$0 269 Jason Alexander 204.0 3.25
$0 270 Frankie Montas 378.5 3.23
$0 271 Drew Thorpe 213.9 3.21
$0 272 Miles Mikolas 505.1 3.21
$0 273 Randy Vasquez 429.5 3.20
$0 274 Mason Black 138.6 3.20
$0 275 Carson Whisenhunt 87.9 3.20
$0 276 Josiah Gray 389.3 3.18
$0 277 Bobby Miller 184.6 3.17
$0 278 Jonathan Cannon 345.3 3.16
$0 279 José Urquidy 355.5 3.16
$0 280 Carson Seymour 85.0 3.12
$0 281 Colton Gordon 198.2 3.11
$0 282 Tyler Anderson 460.9 3.09
$0 283 Jake Irvin 450.2 3.07
$0 284 Brandon Young 138.6 3.05
$0 285 Kyle Freeland 498.6 3.01
$0 286 Caden Dana 241.9 3.00
$0 287 Chase Dollander 359.2 2.99
$0 288 Cal Quantrill 323.1 2.95
$0 289 Walker Buehler 365.6 2.93
$0 290 Tomoyuki Sugano 426.0 2.89
$0 291 Taijuan Walker 329.1 2.74
$0 292 McCade Brown 184.9 2.70
$0 293 Germán Márquez 356.3 2.66
$0 294 Austin Gomber 334.0 2.59
$0 295 Gunnar Hoglund 115.2 2.53
$0 296 Tanner Gordon 276.2 2.45
$0 297 Antonio Senzatela 192.2 2.00

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: First Base

Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push continues with a look at the final position player group: first basemen. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | 1B | MI | 3B |OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 30-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. I’m also including Util-only players in this list since there’s no good home for them elsewhere. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points 1B Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Shohei Ohtani Util/SP 1294.6 1.88 This ranking only reflects what he does as a hitter. Tack on the $25-$30 in value he provides as a pitcher and a $100 salary for Ohtani isn’t out of the question.
$36-$44 2 Nick Kurtz 1B 857.3 1.57 Absolutely smashed the ball during his ROY award-winning campaign. Projects as the top 1B, though there’s still some risk the league will adjust to him.
$36-$44 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B 1020.2 1.53 Power output has waxed and waned throughout his career, but the contact quality has always stayed elite. Even in a down power season, he was the 5th most valuable 1B in 2025.
$36-$44 4 Bryce Harper 1B 900.3 1.46 Some plate discipline yellow flags — high chase rate, low zone rate — but still has excellent contact quality.
$36-$44 5 Freddie Freeman 1B 914.6 1.42 Might be showing some signs of aging; strikeout rate jumped 5 points thanks to big spike in chase and whiff rates.
$28-$35 6 Pete Alonso 1B 941.3 1.39 Posted his best contact quality numbers of his career in 2025 and move to Camden Yards shouldn’t hurt too much.
$28-$35 7 Rafael Devers 1B 911.7 1.37 Struggled a bit once he joined San Francisco — strikeout rate jumped 7 points — but his contact quality remains elite.
$28-$35 8 Matt Olson 1B 932.0 1.36 Nice bounce back in 2025 after a down season in ’24. Plays every single day.
$15-$20 9 Yandy Díaz 1B 836.0 1.33 Really took advantage of Steinbrenner Field in 2025 (.389 wOBA at home); return to Tropicana Field could hurt a bit. Fantastic plate approach gives him a high floor.
$15-$20 10 Michael Busch 1B 748.3 1.31 Followed up breakout 2024 with an even better season in ’25. Contact quality improved dramatically, though platoon split still remains wide.
$15-$20 11 Munetaka Murakami Util 740.6 1.28 The power is definitely real but there’s huge risk in his contact rate. The projections look decent, but the adjustment period could hurt.
$15-$20 12 Willson Contreras 1B 671.1 1.25 Dip in walk rate a little concerning but the contact quality remained excellent. The move to Fenway Park definitely helps.
$15-$20 13 Jonathan Aranda 1B 624.3 1.25 Big breakout in 2025, though the .409 BABIP will certainly come down.
$15-$20 14 Josh Naylor 1B 746.7 1.25 Doesn’t have the contact quality heights of others in this tier, but solid approach at the plate gives him a high floor.
$15-$20 15 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 758.7 1.24 Similar to Naylor with a touch more power — improved barrel rate by 3.7 points in 2025.
$10-$14 16 Marcell Ozuna Util 759.4 1.32 Contact quality dipped significantly in 2025, offset a little by 5 point increase in walk rate.
$10-$14 17 Spencer Torkelson 1B 709.4 1.17 Finally broke out by cutting groundball rate to second lowest in the majors. Improved plate discipline too.
$10-$14 18 Kyle Manzardo 1B 598.9 1.17 Up-and-down year in 2025 but took small steps forward. Increased walk rate and slightly improved contact quality. Platoon split “only” 50 points of wOBA.
$6-$9 19 Triston Casas 1B 279.4 1.25 Coming off a major knee surgery and was really bad in 2025 before the injury. He’ll have to battle for at-bats with Contreras manning 1B.
$6-$9 20 Kazuma Okamoto Util 647.2 1.20 Much more stable profile than Murakami without the high ceiling. Will probably end up getting 3B eligibility.
$6-$9 21 Spencer Horwitz 1B 522.8 1.16 Lost MI eligibility but still productive enough to be valuable at 1B. Good plate approach but poor batted ball quality holds him back.
$6-$9 22 Jake Burger 1B 588.8 1.15 Struggled in his first season in Texas, was demoted in May, and injured his wrist in September. Contact quality didn’t waver.
$6-$9 23 Christian Walker 1B 683.5 1.13 Plate discipline took a big step backward in his first year in Houston but contact quality remained solid.
$3-$5 25 Joc Pederson Util 471.7 1.20 Went through big swings in production in 2025 and injuries limited his playing time. DH-only plus big platoon split limits his value.
$3-$5 24 Nolan Schanuel 1B 640.1 1.12 Great plate discipline gives him a high floor. Finally started elevating the ball in 2025 but contact quality still poor.
$3-$5 26 Josh Bell 1B 614.8 1.12 Big contact quality gains in 2025 but wOBA fell well short of his xwOBA.
$3-$5 27 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 601.4 1.11 Started off strong but fell apart by June. Power evaporated and it feels like we’ve seen the last of him as a productive hitter.
$3-$5 28 Pavin Smith 1B 391.1 1.11 Strikeout rate blew past 30% in 2025 but walk rate and contact quality still good. Big platoon split limits value.
$3-$5 29 Andrew Vaughn 1B 601.5 1.10 Turned his career around after trade to Milwaukee. Chase rate and whiff rate greatly improved during the second half of the season. Needs to prove it.
$1-$2 30 Nathaniel Lowe 1B 552.6 1.07
$1-$2 31 Bryce Eldridge 1B 450.9 1.05
$0-$1 32 Rhys Hoskins 1B 485.1 1.11
$0-$1 33 David Fry Util 268.9 1.09
$0-$1 34 Ryan Mountcastle 1B 365.6 1.05
$0-$1 35 Coby Mayo 1B 238.5 1.00
$0-$1 36 Adrian Del Castillo Util 237.1 0.99
$0-$1 37 Tyler Locklear 1B 278.8 0.99
$0-$1 38 Sung Mun Song 송성문 Util 329.1 0.95
$0-$1 39 Charlie Condon 1B 194.9 0.92
$0 40 Xavier Isaac Util N/A N/A
$0 40 Jesse Winker Util 412.9 1.13
$0 41 Michael Toglia 1B 364.9 1.01
$0 42 Carlos Santana 1B 449.8 0.99
$0 43 Ty France 1B 449.9 0.99
$0 44 Andrés Chaparro 1B 237.3 0.99
$0 45 Wilmer Flores 1B 338.4 0.99
$0 46 Richie Palacios Util 280.5 0.98
$0 47 Anthony Rendon Util 170.2 0.76

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Third Base

Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu rankings push continues this week with a look at the hot corner. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | MI | 3B | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | MI | 3B |OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | MI | 3B | OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 15-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points 3B Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$36-$44 1 José Ramírez 3B 960.20 1.46 133 wRC+ in 2025 was a “down” year for him. Contact quality slipped a bit too.
$28-$35 2 Junior Caminero 3B 848.90 1.41 Blasted 45 home runs in his first full year in the big leagues. Move back to Tropicana Field won’t help but has enough power that it won’t matter much.
$21-$27 3 Max Muncy (LAD) 3B 544.10 1.31 Muncy’s wRC+ after he started wearing glasses on April 30: 166. Contact quality improved and strikeout rate dropped by 5 points.
$21-$27 4 Austin Riley 3B 749.30 1.28 Four straight years of declining production is a big concern. Contact quality looks fantastic but plate discipline deteriorated in 2025.
$21-$27 5 Manny Machado 3B 827.30 1.28 A useful accumulator with good skills across the board. Always plays — two seasons in his entire career w/ less than 150 games played.
$21-$27 6 Alex Bregman 3B 767.40 1.23 New home in Wrigley Field shouldn’t hurt his pull-heavy approach too much and he had his best contact quality of his career in 2025.
$15-$20 7 Matt Chapman 3B 741.60 1.21 Pretty reliable contributor across the board. No weaknesses, but no standout skills either.
$15-$20 8 Isaac Paredes 3B 589.80 1.21 Hamstring injury derailed a very good first year in Houston. Some concerns about playing time in a crowded lineup.
$10-$14 9 Eugenio Suárez 3B 769.60 1.21 Couldn’t keep his offensive resurgence going after re-joining Seattle. Ceiling might come down to where he signs.
$10-$14 10 Sal Stewart 1B/3B 457.80 1.21 Solid debut late last year with impressive contact quality. Needs to earn a spot in a crowded lineup.
$6-$9 11 Alec Bohm 1B/3B 643.60 1.14 Career-high contact rate in 2025, but still pounds the ball into the ground too often.
$6-$9 12 Addison Barger 3B/OF 513.60 1.14 1H breakout (125 wRC+) slowed way down in 2H (87) and then starred in the postseason (188). Great contact quality, needs to hone plate approach.
$6-$9 13 Mark Vientos 3B 580.30 1.13 Couldn’t repeat his breakout from 2024, rebounded a bit in 2H ’25. Contact quality looks good and strikeout rate dropped 5 points.
$3-$5 14 Royce Lewis 3B 513.30 1.10 Is he healthy? If he is, is he the guy who posted a 152 wRC+ in 2023 or an 85 wRC+ in ’25?
$3-$5 15 Miguel Vargas 1B/3B 584.80 1.10 Earned a shot at full-time at-bats and delivered a solid season with a good plate approach and decent contact quality.
$3-$5 16 Noelvi Marte 3B/OF 496.40 1.08 Looked pretty good after returning from PED suspension in July. Plate approach leaves a lot to be desired.
$1-$2 17 Yoán Moncada 3B 387.10 1.12
$1-$2 18 Miguel Andujar 3B/OF 390.60 1.10
$1-$2 19 Matt Shaw 3B 540.40 1.05
$1-$2 20 Otto Kemp 1B/3B/OF 199.80 1.03
$1-$2 21 Josh Jung 3B 501.90 1.02
$1-$2 22 Connor Norby 3B 428.70 1.02
$1-$2 23 Ryan McMahon 3B 546.90 1.01
$1-$2 24 Nolan Arenado 3B 525.10 0.99
$0-$1 25 Kyle Karros 3B 380.40 0.99
$0-$1 26 Nate Eaton 3B/OF 105.60 0.94
$0-$1 27 Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B 113.30 0.91
$0 28 Jose Miranda 3B 427.70 1.14
$0 29 Justin Turner 1B/3B 374.10 1.06
$0 30 Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B 334.50 1.02
$0 31 Deyvison De Los Santos 1B/3B 120.90 0.95
$0 32 Will Wagner 1B/3B 173.40 0.91
$0 33 Oswaldo Cabrera 3B 234.20 0.88
$0 34 Abraham Toro 1B/3B 265.50 0.87
$0 35 Gio Urshela 3B 238.60 0.86
$0 36 Brady House 3B 372.10 0.85
$0 37 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B 455.80 0.84
$0 38 Ben Williamson 3B 251.10 0.80
$0 39 Nacho Alvarez Jr. 3B 133.60 0.80

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Catcher

Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

With the two largest position groups out of the way, the Ottoneu rankings push takes a breather with the smallest position group to finish this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: C | MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: C | MI | OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 20-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points C Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$28-$35 1 Cal Raleigh C 923.3 1.44 Probably won’t hit 60 home runs again but is clearly the best catcher in baseball. Huge power supported by real plate discipline gains in 2025.
$15-$20 2 Will Smith C 652.7 1.34 2025 was his best offensive season since ’20 but it might have been BABIP driven. He did have career-high walk rate and contact quality looked a lot like it did back in ’20.
$15-$20 3 Ben Rice C/1B 673.7 1.32 Huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as 1B in New York, but will probably loose C eligibility in 2027.
$15-$20 4 Shea Langeliers C 673.9 1.32 Another huge breakout in 2025. Cut strikeout rate by 7.5 points and absolutely mashed in 2H (176 wRC+).
$15-$20 5 Iván Herrera C 633.7 1.28 Another huge breakout in 2025. Should get regular at-bats as DH in St. Louis and could retain C eligibility for 2027.
$15-$20 6 Hunter Goodman C 670.4 1.28 This tier is full of breakout catchers! I like his foundation a little less than the other players in this tier — poor plate approach gives him a low floor.
$15-$20 7 William Contreras C 793.0 1.27 Played through a fractured finger in 2025 and his power output dropped. Should bounce back if healthy.
$10-$14 8 Drake Baldwin C 592.6 1.23 Very impressive debut in 2025 that earned him ROY honors. Good plate approach and solid contact quality give him a high floor.
$6-$9 9 Alejandro Kirk C 548.7 1.19 High contact approach might be a little BABIP dependent, but improved contact quality significantly in 2025.
$6-$9 10 Gabriel Moreno C 459.8 1.18 Has dealt with a number of injuries over the last few years, but has been productive when healthy.
$6-$9 11 Salvador Perez C/1B 699.4 1.14 The home runs are nice, but that’s about it. He gets regular at-bats whether its at C, 1B, or DH.
$6-$9 12 Adley Rutschman C 610.3 1.12 He’s been below replacement level for a season and a half now but the promise of a huge bounce back is still present.
$3-$5 13 Francisco Alvarez C 450.5 1.14 Dramatically improved contact quality after returning from midseason demotion but hand injuries derailed his progress.
$3-$5 14 Yainer Diaz C 597.8 1.12 Two straight years of declining production. Aggressive approach means he’s BABIP dependent and power has slid backwards.
$3-$5 15 Ryan Jeffers C 545.5 1.12 Power disappeared in 2025 but plate discipline improved.
$3-$5 16 Tyler Stephenson C 471.6 1.11 Big improvement in contact quality but strikeout rate jumped over 30%.
$3-$5 17 Carter Jensen C 355.7 1.11 Really impressive late season debut in 2025. Playing time in question, but should take over full-time catching duties soon.
$3-$5 18 Kyle Teel C 449.1 1.10 Solid debut season in 2025. Will likely fall back to earth a bit when his BABIP regresses, but solid skills to build on.
$3-$5 19 Agustín Ramírez C 549.9 1.10 Another young catcher whose debut season in 2025 was a little rocky. Projections think he’ll take a step forward.
$3-$5 20 Samuel Basallo C/1B 406.6 1.10 Struggled a bit in his brief call up in 2025 but is still just 21. Position is a question mark but should force his way into the lineup.
$1-$2 21 Sean Murphy C 372.6 1.08
$1-$2 22 J.T. Realmuto C 525.3 1.08
$1-$2 23 Victor Caratini C/1B 339.2 1.07
$1-$2 24 Carson Kelly C 396.4 1.07
$1-$2 25 Austin Wells C 472.7 1.07
$1-$2 26 Moisés Ballesteros C 372.4 1.05
$0-$1 27 Josue Briceño C N/A N/A
$0-$1 27 Dillon Dingler C 435.2 1.06
$0-$1 28 Joey Bart C 331.8 1.04
$0-$1 29 Danny Jansen C 335.1 1.02
$0-$1 30 Carlos Narváez C 417.9 1.01
$0-$1 31 Edgar Quero C 427.6 1.00
$0-$1 32 Logan O’Hoppe C 439.2 0.98
$0-$1 33 Harry Ford C 233.5 0.98
$0-$1 34 Kyle Higashioka C 271.5 0.98
$0-$1 35 Dalton Rushing C 189.7 0.96
$0-$1 36 Bo Naylor C 398.1 0.96
$0 37 Ethan Salas C N/A N/A
$0 38 Gary Sánchez C 253.9 1.05
$0 39 Liam Hicks C/1B 279.4 0.99
$0 40 Connor Wong C 299.9 0.98
$0 41 Luis Campusano C 309.9 0.95
$0 42 James McCann C 177.8 0.94
$0 43 Mitch Garver C 278.1 0.94
$0 44 Travis d’Arnaud C 236.9 0.94
$0 45 Miguel Amaya C 249.0 0.93
$0 46 Elias Díaz C 252.3 0.89
$0 47 Endy Rodriguez C/1B 98.3 0.88
$0 48 Jake Rogers C 199.7 0.86
$0 49 Freddy Fermin C 354.6 0.86
$0 50 Reese McGuire C 163.1 0.86
$0 51 Keibert Ruiz C 307.8 0.85
$0 52 Rafael Marchán C 259.4 0.84
$0 53 Pedro Pagés C 276.6 0.84
$0 54 Jose Trevino C 216.3 0.83
$0 55 Jacob Stallings C 152.1 0.82
$0 56 Jonah Heim C 313.4 0.82
$0 57 Hunter Feduccia C 177.3 0.80
$0 58 Patrick Bailey C 368.9 0.80
$0 59 Henry Davis C 192.7 0.78
$0 60 Nick Fortes C 221.0 0.77
$0 61 Korey Lee C 183.3 0.72
$0 62 Ben Rortvedt C 138.8 0.71
$0 63 Christian Vázquez C 175.6 0.70

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Outfield

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

After starting with the second largest position group last week, the Ottoneu rankings push continues with the largest position group this week. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for Points Leagues: MI | OF
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered Rankings for 4×4: MI | OF

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 75-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points OF Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$66-$77 1 Aaron Judge OF 1346.1 2.04 The best hitter in baseball and showing no signs of slowing down.
$55-$65 2 Juan Soto OF 1163.2 1.70 Despite the slow start in his first season in New York, still finished the season as the third most valuable player in Ottoneu.
$45-$54 3 Yordan Alvarez OF 899.5 1.70 Unquestionably productive when healthy, but has never played in more than 150 games in a single season and has averaged just 118 games per season over the last five years.
$45-$54 4 Ronald Acuña Jr. OF 938.9 1.61 Skills all looked intact after he returned from his second major knee injury in late May. Lack of SB shouldn’t be an issue in FGpts.
$36-$44 5 Kyle Tucker OF 882.7 1.49 Should be healthy in 2026 after a finger injury derailed his 2H in ’25. Only question is where he’ll sign — he’ll produce wherever he lands.
$36-$44 6 Kyle Schwarber OF 1016.8 1.49 Even though he re-signed with the Phillies, it’s hard to imagine him repeating his career year from 2025.
$36-$44 7 Corbin Carroll OF 930.0 1.44 Contact quality dramatically improved last year. Could he take another step forward?
$28-$35 8 Fernando Tatis Jr. OF 914.7 1.42 Probably won’t return to the .400 wOBAs he posted early in his career, still very productive with .350 wOBAs.
$28-$35 9 Brent Rooker OF 909.0 1.41 Plate discipline continued to improve in 2025, and contact quality was still excellent, but wOBA still fell by nearly 50 points. I’m looking for a bounce back in ’26.
$28-$35 10 Julio Rodríguez OF 904.9 1.36 Still hits too many groundballs, but improved his strikeout rate in 2025. Batted ball quality is still there, just needs to elevate more.
$21-$27 11 Byron Buxton OF 731.0 1.44 Produces like a top 10 OF by Pts/PA but the question is always how many games will he play. 2025 was the first time he had more than 500 PAs since 2017.
$21-$27 12 George Springer OF 800.6 1.34 How much do you trust his rebound? Significant skill changes drove improvements, but he’s entering his age-36 season.
$21-$27 13 Seiya Suzuki OF 810.1 1.32 Contact quality still excellent despite second half slump. Plus he stayed healthy all season long.
$21-$27 14 Mike Trout OF 675.0 1.32 How the mighty have fallen. Power output significantly dropped but managed to play more than 130 games for the first time since 2019.
$21-$27 15 James Wood OF 793.1 1.32 Despite second half slump (150 wRC+ in 1H, 93 in 2H), ceiling is extremely high.
$21-$27 16 Riley Greene OF 803.5 1.31 Broke out with 36 HR in 2025, but strikeout rate climbed over 30%. Still starts against LHP, but very unproductive.
$21-$27 17 Roman Anthony OF 686.0 1.30 Extremely impressive big league debut cut short by injury. Could have highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$21-$27 18 Wyatt Langford OF 755.4 1.28 Prospect hype placed too high expectations on him. Slower to develop but still very good player and getting better.
$21-$27 19 Christian Yelich OF 739.6 1.28 Good all around player. Completely healthy season after serious back injury cut 2024 short.
$21-$27 20 Jackson Chourio OF 760.1 1.27 One of the youngest players in baseball with two good seasons to start his career. Still waiting for a big step forward.
$21-$27 21 Jackson Merrill OF 736.2 1.27 Five point increase in strikeout rate led to 20 point drop in wOBA. Contact quality remained solid.
$15-$20 22 Tyler Soderstrom 1B/OF 692.0 1.28 Big breakout wasn’t a Sacramento mirage (-9 point wOBA home/road split). Adding OF eligibility definitely helps his value.
$15-$20 23 Jarren Duran OF 810.1 1.27 Issues against LHP keep his ceiling lower than you’d think. Hard to pay more than $20 for what is essentially a part-time player.
$15-$20 24 Teoscar Hernández OF 740.2 1.25 Barrell rate down. Walk rate down. Feels like 2024 was the outlier between two disappointing seasons.
$15-$20 25 Cody Bellinger OF 773.2 1.25 Could be ranked a tier lower depending on where he signs. Big beneficiary of Yankee Stadium’s short porch (76 point wOBA home/away split)
$10-$14 26 Kyle Stowers OF 653.7 1.28 Breakout season in 2025 cut short by injury. All the underlying metrics look solid, needs to prove it in ’26.
$10-$14 27 Kerry Carpenter OF 569.9 1.28 Crushes RHP. Nearly unplayable against LHP. Probably won’t repeat the highs of 2024.
$10-$14 28 Matt Wallner OF 533.1 1.25 No platoon issues last year despite reputation. BABIP dropped 161 points last year, should be better in ’26.
$10-$14 29 Wilyer Abreu OF 564.0 1.23 Big gains in contact rate while improving barrel rate. Top line results didn’t follow underlying metrics, but could take step forward in ’26.
$10-$14 30 Jo Adell OF 678.8 1.22 Big breakout fueled by big contact quality gains. Plate approach still poor which limits his ceiling.
$10-$14 31 Taylor Ward OF 774.0 1.22 Traded away from home run friendly Angels Stadium to unfriendly Camden Yards. Solid hitter but a little worried about new outlook.
$10-$14 32 Oneil Cruz OF 661.4 1.22 Still having trouble turning raw skills into a complete package. Strikeout issues a huge red flag. Ceiling is still high if he can figure out plate approach.
$10-$14 33 Jurickson Profar OF 699.3 1.20 Carried skills over from 2024 breakout after returning from his PED suspension.
$10-$14 34 Ian Happ OF 780.1 1.20 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$10-$14 35 Brandon Nimmo OF 762.4 1.20 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Will plate discipline rebound?
$10-$14 36 Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF 621.2 1.19 Eliminated platoon splits in 2025, though he struggled in San Diego after trade.
$10-$14 37 Alec Burleson 1B/OF 667.1 1.19 Small improvements in plate discipline and contact quality led to big improvements in results.
$10-$14 38 Randy Arozarena OF 790.6 1.19 A useful accumulator with decent skills across the board. Contact quality improved in ’25.
$6-$9 39 Giancarlo Stanton OF 523.1 1.27 Can still crush the ball when healthy. Enjoyed his best offensive season in 2025 since ’17, but only played in 77 games.
$6-$9 40 Tyler O’Neill OF 465.0 1.27 Is he healthy? Can he still hit for power in Camden Yards? Contact quality fell in ’25 but plate discipline bounced back.
$6-$9 41 Ramón Laureano OF 598.2 1.22 Resurrected his career in Baltimore, continued pounding the ball in San Diego. Biggest difference was 4 point improvement in contact rate.
$6-$9 42 Trent Grisham OF 639.3 1.22 Resurrected his career in New York, set career high in HR in 2025. Real change in plate approach from patient to selectively aggressive.
$6-$9 43 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF 707.3 1.22 131 wRC+ in 1H, 72 in 2H. Which is the real Pete? Underlying skills stayed stable throughout the year — maybe 2H slump was just bad luck?
$6-$9 44 Brandon Marsh OF 534.9 1.19 Much more aggressive at the plate in 2025 led to improved contact rate, lower walk rate.
$6-$9 45 Andy Pages OF 682.7 1.18 Crushed the ball at home but couldn’t produce away from Dodger Stadium.
$6-$9 46 Anthony Santander OF 633.7 1.16 Shoulder injury cost him nearly all of 2025. If healthy, could be a steal in this tier, but everything hinges on his shoulder.
$6-$9 47 Lawrence Butler OF 640.7 1.16 2024 showed us his ceiling if everything goes right. 2025 showed us his floor if his plate discipline continues to slide.
$6-$9 48 Heliot Ramos OF 716.2 1.16 Barrel rate way down but contact rate way up. Feels like he tried to trade power for contact but the result was a big step backwards.
$6-$9 49 Bryan Reynolds OF 747.0 1.14 Strikeouts up even though chase rate fell. Contact quality stayed steady. Could bounce back if he can get the K’s back in line.
$6-$9 50 Jasson Domínguez OF 526.4 1.14 Might have path to full-time at-bats without Bellinger in the picture. Projections see a step forward for him in 2026, and he’s still only 23 years old.
$6-$9 51 Michael Harris II OF 628.9 1.13 2H surge salvaged his season (47 wRC+ in 1H, 130 in 2H). Projections still really like him, but I’m weary after ’24 and 1H ’25.
$6-$9 52 Luis Robert Jr. OF 575.7 1.13 Improved his plate discipline significantly in 2025. Power still hasn’t returned and healthy will always be a question.
$6-$9 54 Spencer Steer 1B/OF 651.0 1.12 Slowly worked his way back from shoulder injury (113 wRC+ in Aug/Sept). Still feels like 2023 was his high water mark.
$6-$9 55 Daulton Varsho OF 561.6 1.11 Big power spike after returning from shoulder injury. Too many strikeouts put a cap on his ceiling.
$6-$9 56 Lars Nootbaar OF 573.2 1.10 Contact quality remained excellent but wasn’t pulling the ball as much in 2025. Solid floor thanks to good plate approach.
$3-$5 57 Mickey Moniak OF 542.2 1.22 Made real strides forward in Colorado. Strikeouts down, contact quality up, home park is a nice bonus.
$3-$5 58 Masataka Yoshida OF 350.0 1.17 Does he have a regular spot in Boston’s lineup? Injuries derailed his 2025 season but underlying metrics looked normal-ish.
$3-$5 59 Jorge Soler OF 582.8 1.16 Bat speed and power output fell significantly in 2025. Doesn’t have the plate approach to rebound if power is gone.
$3-$5 60 Daylen Lile OF 537.2 1.15 Huge finish to the season looks like it was BABIP fueled (.380 BABIP in 2H). Excellent contact skills, little power, no walks — reminds me of Steven Kwan.
$3-$5 61 Isaac Collins OF 462.4 1.15 Excellent contact skills, little power, can take walks. I actually like his move to KC with it’s huge BABIP boosting park effects.
$3-$5 62 Jesús Sánchez OF 526.6 1.13 Contact quality took a steep dive after being traded to Houston. If it rebounds, could have a much higher ceiling than this ranking assumes.
$3-$5 63 Colton Cowser OF 546.5 1.13 Strikeout rate jumped through the roof in 2025. Untenable at 35%, could make it work at 30%, but the margin is razor thin.
$3-$5 53 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 524.2 1.12 ACL injury means he’ll miss first few months of 2026 season.
$3-$5 64 Evan Carter OF 402.4 1.11 Injuries have stunted his development and lowered his ceiling. Made real plate discipline changes last year but still isn’t hitting the ball with authority.
$3-$5 65 JJ Bleday OF 451.1 1.11 Big step backwards in 2025. Cincinnati should be a nice place to hit but he’s probably a platoon player in that lineup.
$3-$5 66 Mike Yastrzemski OF 524.0 1.11 Dropped his strikeout rate below 20% in 2025 and still has pretty good contact quality metrics.
$3-$5 67 Trevor Larnach OF 503.8 1.11 Barrel rate dipped in 2025 but maintained plate discipline improvements from ’24. Might be just a platoon player.
$3-$5 68 TJ Friedl OF 623.5 1.09 Solid plate approach gives him a nice floor. Tries to make the most of his pulled contact with weak contact quality.
$3-$5 69 Jakob Marsee OF 546.9 1.09 Exciting debut might have been BABIP fueled. Even if he doesn’t return to those heights, the skills are decent enough to return some value.
$3-$5 70 Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 OF 609.9 1.09 Up-and-down season wound up being just average by the end. Projections see room for growth but I’m not sure from where.
$3-$5 71 Josh Lowe OF 473.3 1.09 Got his strikeout rate under control in 2025 but contact quality cratered. Can he put it all together in ’26? Might be just a platoon player anyway.
$3-$5 72 Steven Kwan OF 692.7 1.08 Even if his BABIP rebounds, it seems like his 2024 power spike was a one-year blip.
$3-$5 73 Brenton Doyle OF 580.5 1.06 Really struggled in 2025 but underlying skills looked intact. Be prepared to sit him on the road.
$3-$5 74 Dylan Crews OF 498.3 1.03 Still waiting for him to acclimate to the big leagues. Ceiling might not be as high as his prospect reports thought.
$1-$2 75 Jahmai Jones OF 196.9 1.32
$1-$2 76 Rob Refsnyder OF 300.3 1.20
$1-$2 77 Luke Raley 1B/OF 347.8 1.15
$1-$2 78 Randal Grichuk OF 320.9 1.12
$1-$2 79 Dominic Canzone OF 395.5 1.10
$1-$2 80 Austin Hays OF 499.3 1.10
$1-$2 81 Dylan Beavers OF 391.4 1.10
$1-$2 82 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF 54.1 1.10
$1-$2 83 Heriberto Hernández OF 351.9 1.10
$1-$2 84 Garrett Mitchell OF 233.4 1.09
$1-$2 85 Jordan Beck OF 561.6 1.08
$1-$2 86 Lane Thomas OF 454.9 1.08
$1-$2 87 Nick Castellanos OF 544.8 1.08
$1-$2 88 Harrison Bader OF 512.0 1.07
$1-$2 89 Cedric Mullins OF 499.1 1.07
$1-$2 90 Sal Frelick OF 559.6 1.06
$1-$2 91 Andrew Benintendi OF 526.7 1.06
$1-$2 92 Troy Johnston 1B/OF 275.6 1.06
$1-$2 93 Adolis García OF 607.6 1.06
$1-$2 94 Jake McCarthy OF 320.5 1.06
$1-$2 95 Chase DeLauter OF 522.2 1.05
$1-$2 96 Nathan Lukes OF 355.0 1.04
$1-$2 97 Victor Robles OF 332.4 1.04
$1-$2 98 Jac Caglianone 1B/OF 454.1 1.04
$1-$2 99 Colby Thomas OF 226.2 1.04
$1-$2 100 Gavin Sheets 1B/OF 537.1 1.03
$1-$2 101 C.J. Kayfus 1B/OF 356.9 1.02
$1-$2 102 Justin Crawford OF 396.2 1.02
$1-$2 103 Walker Jenkins OF 99.4 1.00
$1-$2 104 Cam Smith OF 430.9 0.99
$0-$1 105 Max Clark OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 106 Josue De Paula OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 107 Zyhir Hope OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 108 Lazaro Montes OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 109 Mike Sirota OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 110 Eduardo Quintero OF N/A N/A
$0-$1 111 Starling Marte OF 343.4 1.08
$0-$1 112 Jake Fraley OF 288.5 1.08
$0-$1 113 Mike Tauchman OF 399.5 1.07
$0-$1 114 Jake Bauers 1B/OF 331.4 1.07
$0-$1 115 Will Benson OF 288.3 1.06
$0-$1 116 Matt Vierling OF 391.4 1.06
$0-$1 117 Carlos Cortes OF 146.3 1.05
$0-$1 118 Alex Call OF 287.8 1.04
$0-$1 119 Wenceel Pérez OF 459.3 1.03
$0-$1 120 Luis Matos OF 295.9 1.03
$0-$1 121 Owen Caissie OF 387.4 1.02
$0-$1 122 Austin Martin OF 277.4 1.02
$0-$1 123 James Outman OF 238.1 1.02
$0-$1 124 Jake Meyers OF 442.1 1.02
$0-$1 125 Zac Veen OF 308.8 1.02
$0-$1 126 Tommy Pham OF 428.1 1.01
$0-$1 127 Chandler Simpson OF 391.1 1.01
$0-$1 128 Michael Conforto OF 423.0 1.00
$0-$1 129 Parker Meadows OF 413.9 1.00
$0-$1 130 Jack Suwinski OF 245.1 0.99
$0-$1 131 Christopher Morel OF 384.2 0.99
$0-$1 132 Jordan Walker OF 443.7 0.98
$0-$1 133 Carson Benge OF 419.0 0.97
$0-$1 134 George Valera OF 353.3 0.97
$0-$1 135 Jhostynxon Garcia OF 359.4 0.97
$0-$1 136 Jerar Encarnacion OF 135.8 0.96
$0-$1 137 Jake Mangum OF 372.5 0.96
$0-$1 138 Justyn-Henry Malloy 1B/OF 135.3 0.93
$0-$1 139 Alan Roden OF 175.3 0.93
$0 140 Max Kepler OF 473.6 1.06
$0 141 Andrew McCutchen OF 487.2 1.05
$0 142 LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B/OF 307.9 1.02
$0 143 Mark Canha OF 299.1 1.01
$0 144 Sam Haggerty OF 213.1 1.01
$0 145 Connor Joe OF 354.0 1.00
$0 146 Eli White OF 201.5 1.00
$0 147 Chas McCormick OF 211.8 0.99
$0 148 Jarred Kelenic OF 281.2 0.99
$0 149 Zach Dezenzo OF 90.5 0.97
$0 150 Hunter Renfroe OF 357.2 0.96
$0 151 Zach Cole OF 310.9 0.96
$0 152 MJ Melendez OF 307.8 0.96
$0 153 Will Brennan OF 347.2 0.96
$0 154 Griffin Conine OF 305.9 0.95
$0 155 Eric Wagaman 1B/OF 351.0 0.94
$0 156 Denzel Clarke OF 304.1 0.94
$0 157 Jonny DeLuca OF 248.4 0.92
$0 158 Alek Thomas OF 368.9 0.92
$0 159 Blake Perkins OF 256.0 0.92
$0 160 Dane Myers OF 234.6 0.92
$0 161 Drew Gilbert OF 292.9 0.92
$0 162 Kevin Alcántara OF 124.1 0.91
$0 163 Nolan Jones OF 288.7 0.91
$0 164 Tirso Ornelas OF 118.0 0.91
$0 165 Alex Verdugo OF 350.5 0.91
$0 166 Joey Loperfido OF 149.4 0.91
$0 167 Tyrone Taylor OF 328.5 0.91
$0 168 Jose Siri OF 360.7 0.90
$0 169 Myles Straw OF 230.6 0.89
$0 170 Kyle Isbel OF 367.7 0.87
$0 171 Victor Scott II OF 399.5 0.85
$0 172 John Rave OF 130.8 0.85
$0 173 Kameron Misner OF 137.5 0.84
$0 174 Dylan Carlson OF 183.1 0.83
$0 175 Johan Rojas OF 176.5 0.83
$0 176 Bryce Johnson OF 151.6 0.83
$0 177 Jacob Young OF 310.7 0.83
$0 178 Alejandro Osuna OF 109.4 0.83
$0 179 Tyler Black 1B/OF 35.2 0.82
$0 180 Jhonkensy Noel 1B/OF 119.4 0.82
$0 181 Drew Waters OF 191.0 0.81
$0 182 Robert Hassell III OF 175.5 0.80
$0 183 Heston Kjerstad OF 99.9 0.76
$0 184 Marco Luciano OF 36.6 0.61

Jake Mailhot’s 2026 Tiered Rankings for Ottoneu Points: Middle Infield

Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Chad started off the Ottoneu rankings push with his 4×4 middle infield rankings yesterday and I’m following up with my rankings for Ottoneu points leagues. You can find all the information about the format and methodology for these rankings in Chad’s introduction.

Here are few more notes about my process:

  • Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of up to five public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, OOPSY, THE BAT, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player a wealth of data sources to form their projection. Currently, the projections below only include Steamer and THE BAT projections. I will update the rankings in February once ZiPS, OOPSY, and PECOTA are released.
  • P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting three or four plate appearances when they start a game. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’m projecting players using points per plate appearance. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.

Just to reiterate a point that Chad makes in his introduction: yes, these rankings are presented ordinally, but the tier a player appears in is much more important than if they’re ranked 16th or 28th. Within tiers, players are generally ranked by their projected Pts/PA but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think one player is significantly more valuable than another in the same tier. I’ve got notes on the top 50-ish players below and I’ll add more notes when I update the rankings next month. Let’s get into it.

Ottoneu Points MI Tiered Rankings
Tier Rank Player Position Projected Pts Pts/PA Notes
$45-$54 1 Bobby Witt Jr. SS 1023.4 1.54 Clearly the best MI in baseball with just six hitters projected to outproduce him.
$36-$44 2 Ketel Marte 2B 867.5 1.49 The best 2B in baseball, trade rumors shouldn’t affect production.
$36-$44 3 Corey Seager SS 728.0 1.46 Productive when on the field but injury concerns will always be a factor.
$28-$35 4 Gunnar Henderson SS 921.7 1.40 Took a step back in 2025 but the ceiling is still very high.
$28-$35 5 Francisco Lindor SS 928.5 1.36 Consistent production means he’s a little overlooked in favor of flashier MI, but he’s been very good for four years straight.
$28-$35 6 Mookie Betts SS 793.5 1.29 Lost positional flexibility and spring illness negatively affected his entire 2025. Should bounce back in 2026, but how high?
$21-$27 7 Elly De La Cruz SS 862.9 1.31 Quad injury clearly held him back in 2025, but the ceiling is sky high. Considered ranking him a tier higher, but needs to prove it first.
$21-$27 8 Trea Turner SS 798.7 1.31 The power is probably on the downswing, but contact ability is still excellent. Steals are a bonus in FGpts.
$21-$27 9 Geraldo Perdomo SS 767.8 1.27 Big breakout in 2025 and all the underlying metrics look sustainable. Still worried about some power regression.
$21-$27 10 Bo Bichette SS 747.6 1.27 Posted his best offensive season in 2025 after a down year in ’24. Any potential landing spot shouldn’t affect his production too much.
$21-$27 11 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B/3B 708.5 1.27 Huge power explosion in first full season in New York raises his ceiling significantly.
$21-$27 12 Zach Neto SS 726.9 1.25 The ceiling is a 30/30 season. Batted ball metrics all point to significant breakout potential.
$15-$20 13 Jordan Westburg 2B/3B 595.0 1.23 Solid player across the board with no weaknesses, but no standout skills either. Needs to stay healthy.
$15-$20 14 Jose Altuve 2B/OF 766.1 1.22 Approaching the age cliff at 36 years old. Still possesses solid skills, but how long will they last?
$15-$20 15 Jeremy Peña SS 723.1 1.20 Came back down to earth after rib injury (143 wRC+ in 1H, 120 in 2H), but 2025 represented a big step forward for him.
$10-$14 16 Brandon Lowe 2B 627.3 1.20 Move to Pittsburgh shouldn’t hurt too much. 2025 was his first (mostly) healthy season since 2021.
$10-$14 17 Luke Keaschall 2B 515.6 1.20 Looked like a big leaguer in his cup of coffee in 2025. Batted ball peripherals are a bit concerning, but the contact skill is real.
$10-$14 18 Jorge Polanco 2B/3B 580.6 1.19 Swing change allowed him to thrive despite battling nagging injuries. Probably won’t be MI eligible next year.
$10-$14 19 Willy Adames SS 774.3 1.18 The power is real but playing in SF hurt his overall offensive production.
$10-$14 20 Jacob Wilson SS 595.8 1.18 Idealized version of Luis Arraez with a touch more power. Still pretty BABIP dependent which leads to low lows.
$10-$14 21 Brendan Donovan 2B/SS/OF 655.0 1.18 Solid player across the board with no weaknesses. Multi-positional eligibility helps his value.
$10-$14 22 CJ Abrams SS 704.7 1.16 Has developed into a good player, though the promise of a power breakout is probably fleeting unless he makes some serious contact quality gains.
$10-$14 23 Trevor Story SS 647.8 1.15 First healthy year since 2021 led to significant improvements in contact quality. Poor plate discipline holds him back.
$10-$14 24 Carlos Correa SS/3B 604.8 1.15 Has a history of quality production but health will determine if he can reach his previous highs.
$10-$14 25 Gleyber Torres 2B 721.4 1.14 Played through injury during the second half but still put up a solid season in Detroit.
$10-$14 26 Maikel Garcia 2B/SS/3B/OF 713.1 1.13 Huge breakout in 2025 doesn’t look like a mirage. Positional flexibility a big bonus.
$10-$14 27 Brice Turang 2B 701.9 1.13 Another big breakout from 2025 that looks like it’s going to stick. Might have the highest ceiling of any player in this tier.
$10-$14 28 Xander Bogaerts SS 623.2 1.13 Probably won’t reach his previous highs, but still a useful accumulator with decent skills across the board.
$6-$9 29 Ezequiel Tovar SS 645.9 1.12 Extremely streaky hitter who had a big step backwards in 2025. Uncertain future, but Coors effect should be a benefit.
$6-$9 30 Colt Keith 1B/2B/3B 551.7 1.12 Quietly put together a great season in his second year in the big leagues. Projections really like him in 2026.
$6-$9 31 Luis García Jr. 2B 567.2 1.11 Still only 26, he’s improved significantly over the last few years. Added a bit of power in 2024, needs to put it all together to really take step forward.
$6-$9 32 Nico Hoerner 2B 711.7 1.11 All hit, no power profile works when he’s making contact 90% of the time.
$3-$5 33 Romy Gonzalez 1B/2B 391.2 1.20 Significant improvement in contact quality in 2025, but still might only be the short side of a 2B platoon.
$3-$5 34 Kevin McGonigle SS 233.3 1.20 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026.
$3-$5 35 Colson Montgomery SS/3B 544.8 1.10 A lot of home runs make up for a really poor approach at the plate.
$3-$5 36 Bryson Stott 2B/SS 620.9 1.10 Swing change helped him improve contact quality in 2H. Breakout candidate if the swing change sticks.
$3-$5 37 Dansby Swanson SS 670.9 1.09 Still has some pop but poor plate approach caps his ceiling as an average MI.
$3-$5 38 Luis Arraez 1B/2B 685.2 1.09 Contact rate king, but too much weak contact to make the most of all those balls in play.
$3-$5 39 Jeff McNeil 2B/OF 544.1 1.08 New ballpark in Sacramento should help, but health uncertain after offseason thoracic outlet surgery.
$3-$5 40 Tyler Freeman 2B/OF 412.9 1.07 Claimed full-time at-bat by June but limped through the end of the season (66 wRC+ in 2H)
$3-$5 41 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS 620.3 1.07 Put together his best season in 2025 since breakout in 2021.
$3-$5 42 Konnor Griffin SS 506.3 1.07 Top prospect who could make his debut sometime in 2026.
$3-$5 43 Ozzie Albies 2B 627.9 1.06 He’s fallen pretty far from his peak but still only 29 years old. The power has completely evaporated and it doesn’t look like it’s coming back.
$3-$5 44 Marcus Semien 2B 658.6 1.05 Another veteran who has fallen far from his peak. Solid 2H gives some hope he’s still got something in the tank.
$3-$5 45 Jackson Holliday 2B/SS 576.7 1.04 Slower development than expected from a former top prospect. Ceiling is still high and only 22 years old.
$3-$5 46 JJ Wetherholt 2B/SS 113.6 1.04 Probably closer to the big leagues than the other two top prospects in this tier but lower ceiling than Griffin and McGonigle.
$1-$2 47 Zach McKinstry SS/3B/OF 462.6 1.07
$1-$2 48 Brett Baty 2B/3B 432.8 1.07
$1-$2 49 Kody Clemens 1B/2B/OF 349.7 1.07
$1-$2 50 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 2B/SS 500.8 1.06
$1-$2 51 Xavier Edwards 2B/SS 583.4 1.05
$1-$2 52 Ceddanne Rafaela 2B/OF 590.3 1.05
$1-$2 53 Jonathan India 2B/3B/OF 575.0 1.04
$1-$2 54 Caleb Durbin 2B/3B 532.6 1.04
$1-$2 55 Gavin Lux 2B/3B/OF 484.1 1.04
$1-$2 56 Matt McLain 2B 559.2 1.03
$1-$2 57 Leo De Vries SS 62.0 1.03
$1-$2 58 J.P. Crawford SS 592.9 1.02
$1-$2 59 Colt Emerson SS 271.0 1.02
$1-$2 60 Masyn Winn SS 588.6 1.01
$1-$2 61 Marcelo Mayer 2B/SS/3B 388.0 1.00
$1-$2 62 Sebastian Walcott SS 85.0 1.00
$1-$2 63 Jordan Lawlar 2B/SS/3B 382.8 0.99
$1-$2 64 Tommy Edman 2B/3B/OF 445.7 0.99
$1-$2 65 Kristian Campbell 1B/2B/OF 356.2 0.99
$0-$1 66 Jesús Made SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 67 Luis Peña 2B/SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 68 Ethan Holliday Util N/A N/A
$0-$1 69 George Lombard Jr. SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 70 Eli Willits Util N/A N/A
$0-$1 71 Travis Bazzana 2B 172.0 0.95
$0-$1 72 Franklin Arias SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 73 Aidan Miller SS 41.0 1.03
$0-$1 74 Bryce Rainer SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 75 Aiva Arquette SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 76 Angel Genao SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 77 JoJo Parker Util N/A N/A
$0-$1 78 Jett Williams 2B/SS/OF 75.7 1.05
$0-$1 79 Arjun Nimmala SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 80 Kaelen Culpepper SS N/A N/A
$0-$1 81 Edmundo Sosa 2B/SS/3B 270.9 1.11
$0-$1 82 Davis Schneider 2B/OF 370.7 1.05
$0-$1 83 Brooks Baldwin 2B/SS/3B/OF 368.5 1.04
$0-$1 84 Tyler Fitzgerald 2B 327.7 1.03
$0-$1 85 Jace Jung 2B/3B 392.0 1.03
$0-$1 86 Otto Lopez 2B/SS 550.7 1.02
$0-$1 87 Josh Smith 1B/SS/3B/OF 523.6 1.02
$0-$1 88 Casey Schmitt 1B/2B/3B 361.3 1.02
$0-$1 89 David Hamilton 2B/SS 266.6 1.01
$0-$1 90 Willi Castro 2B/3B/OF 534.7 1.01
$0-$1 91 Nick Gonzales 2B/SS 427.5 1.00
$0-$1 92 Weston Wilson 2B/OF 244.3 1.00
$0-$1 93 Edouard Julien 1B/2B 330.8 1.00
$0-$1 94 Adael Amador 2B 398.9 1.00
$0-$1 95 Lenyn Sosa 1B/2B 459.0 1.00
$0-$1 96 Zack Gelof 2B 394.2 0.99
$0-$1 97 José Caballero 2B/SS/3B/OF 372.7 0.99
$0-$1 98 Ernie Clement 1B/2B/SS/3B 536.1 0.99
$0-$1 99 Leo Jiménez 2B 219.6 0.99
$0-$1 100 Jeremiah Jackson SS/3B/OF 215.3 0.99
$0-$1 101 Nolan Gorman 2B/3B 392.4 0.98
$0-$1 102 Jared Triolo 1B/2B/SS/3B 446.4 0.96
$0-$1 103 Carson Williams SS 410.9 0.96
$0-$1 104 Anthony Volpe SS 545.8 0.95
$0-$1 105 Chase Meidroth 2B/SS 496.6 0.93
$0-$1 106 Andrés Giménez 2B/SS 489.8 0.93
$0-$1 107 Christian Moore 2B 378.5 0.93
$0-$1 108 Ronny Mauricio 2B/3B 214.1 0.93
$0-$1 109 Cole Young 2B/SS 344.5 0.89
$0-$1 110 Alex Freeland 2B/SS/3B 134.2 0.89
$0 111 Miguel Rojas 2B/SS/3B 296.6 1.02
$0 112 Dylan Moore 1B/2B/3B/OF 307.5 1.01
$0 113 Ramón Urías 2B/3B 324.9 1.01
$0 114 Brendan Rodgers 2B 327.1 0.99
$0 115 Amed Rosario 2B/3B 309.4 0.97
$0 116 José Tena 2B/3B 287.1 0.95
$0 117 Vaughn Grissom 2B/SS 373.8 0.95
$0 118 Blaze Alexander 2B/3B 376.5 0.94
$0 119 Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 2B/SS/OF 240.3 0.94
$0 120 Max Muncy 2B/SS/3B 325.1 0.94
$0 121 Andy Ibáñez 2B/3B 236.8 0.94
$0 122 Jon Berti 2B/3B 194.4 0.94
$0 123 Michael Massey 2B/OF 316.7 0.92
$0 124 Jose Iglesias 2B/SS/3B 255.9 0.91
$0 125 Joey Ortiz SS 474.9 0.91
$0 126 Nick Yorke 2B/OF 323.2 0.91
$0 127 Darell Hernaiz 2B/SS/3B 312.6 0.91
$0 128 Thairo Estrada 2B 313.0 0.91
$0 129 Brooks Lee 2B/SS/3B 448.5 0.90
$0 130 Paul DeJong 2B/SS/3B 301.0 0.90
$0 131 Luis Rengifo 2B/3B/OF 405.6 0.90
$0 132 Jorge Mateo 2B/SS/OF 192.3 0.90
$0 133 Leo Rivas 2B/SS 217.1 0.90
$0 134 Luis Urías 2B/3B 254.4 0.90
$0 135 Christian Koss 2B/3B 197.1 0.90
$0 136 Daniel Schneemann 2B/SS/3B/OF 307.6 0.89
$0 137 Nick Loftin 2B/3B/OF 225.3 0.89
$0 138 Curtis Mead 1B/2B/3B 250.3 0.89
$0 139 Mauricio Dubón 2B/SS/3B/OF 325.4 0.88
$0 140 Enrique Hernández 1B/2B/3B/OF/RP 291.1 0.88
$0 141 Thomas Saggese 2B/SS/3B 216.3 0.88
$0 142 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B/SS/3B 359.5 0.88
$0 143 Kyle Farmer 1B/2B/SS/3B 237.4 0.87
$0 144 Nasim Nuñez 2B/SS 305.8 0.87
$0 145 Max Schuemann 2B/SS/3B/OF 271.1 0.87
$0 146 Ezequiel Duran 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF 259.0 0.87
$0 147 José Fermín 2B 63.6 0.86
$0 148 Chris Taylor 2B/OF 211.8 0.86
$0 149 Brayan Rocchio 2B/SS 390.3 0.86
$0 150 Gabriel Arias 2B/SS 361.6 0.86
$0 151 Adam Frazier 2B/OF 326.8 0.85
$0 152 Tim Tawa 1B/2B/OF 251.7 0.85
$0 153 Javier Báez 2B/SS/3B/OF 323.6 0.85
$0 154 Angel Martínez 2B/OF 337.0 0.85
$0 155 Michael Helman SS/OF 206.3 0.84
$0 156 Josh Rojas 2B/3B 273.4 0.84
$0 157 Orlando Arcia 1B/2B/SS/3B 321.0 0.82
$0 158 Taylor Walls SS 289.0 0.82
$0 159 Ildemaro Vargas 1B/2B/3B 194.9 0.81
$0 160 Luisangel Acuña 2B 132.6 0.81
$0 161 Trey Sweeney SS 261.7 0.80
$0 162 Santiago Espinal 2B/3B/OF 238.3 0.78
$0 163 Oswald Peraza 1B/2B/SS/3B 226.7 0.73

Ottoneu: Jake’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions at SP

Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu keeper deadline is quickly approaching. There’s less than a month left to make your roster decisions before the January 31 cut deadline. I’m going through a handful of difficult keep or cut decisions at every position group to give you a transparent look at my decision making process and hopefully help you with theses specific cases for these specific players. I’ve already covered hitters in three separate articles — corner infielders, middle infielders, and outfielders — now I’m wrapping everything by covering three starting pitchers.

Kodai Senga, SP
Salary: $16, $17
Average Salary: $18
2025 P/G: 4.33
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.16

I’m not sure the Mets know what to do with Kodai Senga so I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t know what to do with him on your fantasy squad. Injuries cost him nearly all of 2024 and a hamstring injury in June derailed his season a year later. Before that injury, he had put up a 1.47 ERA and a 3.24 FIP in 13 starts. During the rehab from his injury, his mechanics were thrown out of whack, and after he returned to the majors, he produced a 5.90 ERA and 5.76 FIP across nine starts. Ultimately, he was demoted to Triple-A in September to work on those mechanical inconsistencies.

Even if Senga is completely healthy in 2026, there were enough yellow flags in his first-half performance that a rebound back to the level of his excellent 2023 debut isn’t necessarily guaranteed. During those first 13 starts of the season, his strikeout-minus-walk rate was 13.3%, just a hair below league average and well short of the 18.0% K-BB% he posted during his first season in the US. Most of that was driven by a significant drop in strikeout rate.

You could point to his signature pitch, the ghost fork, as the reason why he wasn’t seeing as many swings and misses in 2025. And while that pitch was a little less effective last year, it was his cutter that saw the most dramatic drop in effectiveness. In 2023, his cutter was the fourth most valuable pitch in baseball by Run Value with a 2.9 RV/100, far outpacing his forkball (1.0 RV/100). In 2025, his cutter was exactly neutral with a 0.0 RV/100. Unlike his diving forkball, Senga’s cutter was a contact suppression machine during its peak, but batters made much higher quality contact against that pitch last year. That combination — a forkball that wasn’t getting as many swings and misses and a cutter that wasn’t generating as much weak contact — has me worried that Senga’s ceiling is far lower than we might think.

The projections are picking up on those concerns and see Senga taking a pretty significant step back in 2026. Health concerns aside, there are enough flags in his pitch arsenal that present enough risk to steer clear. And when you add his mechanical issues and injury history back into the picture, it’s a pretty easy call to avoid paying too high a price for Senga in 2026.

Keep or cut?

I’m cutting Senga in both of my leagues where I’m rostering him and I doubt I’ll be looking to redraft him in the spring.

Gavin Williams, SP
Salary: $11, $9, $8
Average Salary: $9
2025 P/G: 4.22
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.03

Through his first 11 starts of the year, Gavin Williams put up a rough 4.27 ERA and 4.65 FIP. It wasn’t terrible, but it was a concerning start to the season after an up-and-down year in 2024. From the beginning of June through the end of the season, his ERA fell by nearly two full runs down to 2.50 but his FIP only dropped to 4.27. His strikeout-to-walk ratio improved slightly during those final four months of the season but the biggest reason his ERA improved was thanks to a .221 BABIP and a 87.5% strand rate. Most of his underlying peripherals pointed to the same pitcher on the mound, but a ton of good batted ball luck helped him flip his season.

For Ottoneu players, an improved ERA shouldn’t necessarily help Williams’s fantasy production and a FIP above four is usually a bad sign. But here’s where understanding the ins and outs of your given format becomes extremely important.

Gavin Williams, Ottoneu Points Performance
Time Period FIP BABIP FGpts/IP SABRpts/IP
Prior to June 4.65 0.323 3.43 3.47
June Onward 4.27 0.221 4.57 3.86

In Ottoneu leagues using the FanGraphs points system — which critically takes hits allowed into account — Williams dramatically improved his production during the later half of the season. In leagues using the SABR points system — using only the inputs for FIP — Williams’s season was frustrating from start to finish.

As for Williams’s pitch arsenal, he was able to develop a very effective sweeper last year that returned a 44.0% whiff rate. That’s an excellent pitch to add to his repertoire, though his lack of command holds him back from really raising his ceiling. That’s sort of the big issue with his profile. He has a good, hard fastball, two excellent breaking balls, but he needed some incredible batted ball luck to turn into an effective pitcher for fantasy. His command was still an issue throughout the season, leading to some pretty inconsistent outings. Still, his Location+ improved from 91 during the first two months to 96 through the end of the year. That’s something to build off of, but until he’s able to make some significant improvements in that area, I fear his excellent stuff will be held back from reaching its maximum potential.

Keep or cut?

Thankfully, all three leagues where I’m rostering Williams use FanGraphs points, so I was able to partially enjoy his second half improvements in 2025. I’m probably keeping him at $8 and $9 but I think I’ll be cutting him at $11. His inconsistencies and command issues make him a risk to roster at a double-digit salary.

Yusei Kikuchi, SP
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $8
2025 P/G: 3.78
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.09

Coming off what seemed to be a mini-breakout during his short 10 start stint with the Astros during the second half of 2024, Yusei Kikuchi latched on with the Angels last year. Even though he was leaving the pitching development powerhouse in Houston, I expected the changes he implemented while he was there to stick in Los Angeles. Unfortunately, they didn’t. Some mechanical issues led to a drop in velocity and a lower arm slot affected the shapes of all his pitches. He spent most of the season working out the kinks in his delivery, slowly raising his arm slot and regaining some of his velocity.

I think the thing that worries me the most is the effectiveness of Kikuchi’s fastball. He’s one of the hardest throwing left-handers in baseball, but he’s entering his age-35 season in 2026. His velocity dropped early last year, and even though he regained it in the middle of the season, it dropped again in August and September and his results tanked along with it.

Last year, he generated the lowest whiff rate on his fastball since his debut season in 2019. Both his slider and changeup were a little less effective at getting swings and misses too. It all added up to a 5.5 point drop in strikeout rate and a much higher walk rate that was more in line with what he was posting during his time in Seattle.

Kikuchi has never been a model of consistency during his career. He’ll have dominant stretches from time to time, but his command issues have often held him back from reaching his ceiling. It looked like he had turned a corner in Toronto and Houston in 2023 and ‘24, but he came crashing back down last year thanks to his mechanical troubles. Steamer projects a small bounce back but he’s getting to the point in his career where the velocity of his fastball is sitting on a knife’s edge; dip just a little and the whole repertoire comes crashing down.

Keep or cut?

$5 is probably the highest I’d want to roster Kikuchi for heading into next season. There’s always the possibility he’ll figure out his mechanics over the offseason and post another strong season like he did in 2024, but there are too many flags to risk anything higher than that. I’ll probably keep him at $5, but he’s a quick cut if his fastball isn’t looking good in the spring.


Ottoneu: Jake’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions at OF

Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Ottoneu keeper deadline is quickly approaching. There’s less than a month left to make your roster decisions before the January 31 cut deadline. I’m going through a handful of difficult keep or cut decisions at every position group to give you a transparent look at my decision making process and hopefully help you with theses specific cases for these specific players. I started with the corner infielders and middle infielders before the holidays and will wrap up with pitchers later this week.

Teoscar Hernández, OF
Salary: $18, $19, $20
Average Salary: $21
2025 P/G: 4.55
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.04

A big bounce back season during his first year in Los Angeles had me hopeful that Teoscar Hernández’s down year in Seattle in 2023 was a one year blip. A year later, it kind of seems like the bounce back was the blip after Hernández posted a 102 wRC+ in ‘25, slightly worse than the 107 he posted with the Mariners a few years ago. Entering his age-33 season this year, which Hernández should we expect to see in 2026?

Let’s get the good news out of the way first: Hernández’s contact quality looked pretty good despite the underwhelming results. His hard hit rate was still well above average, and even though his barrel rate fell by more than three points, it was still barely outside the top quartile among qualified batters. That drop in barrel rate might have had an outsized effect on his bottom line results however. His expected wOBA on contact fell from .457 in 2024 to .403 in ‘25 despite no significant change to his batted ball mix. He wasn’t pounding the ball into the ground more often, he was simply less productive on the contact he was making. His average bat speed was down a little, but not dramatically which does provide some hope that he can rediscover his knack for barrelling up pitches.

The other concerning trend last year was a walk rate that fell to the lowest it’s been in his career. Hernández has never really been a patient hitter, but his walk rate usually fell right around league average when he was a middle-of-the-order run producer in Toronto. In 2025, it dropped to 4.8%. There were no dramatic changes to his underlying plate discipline metrics which makes his walk rate even more of a mystery. His swing rate in three-ball counts was 72.7%, much higher than his norm and the second highest three-ball swing rate in baseball. That tells me he was trying to swing his way out of his struggles rather than maintaining his measured aggression that served him so well in the past.

Steamer is essentially splitting the difference between Hernández’s down seasons in 2023 and ‘25 and the rest of his productive history. That’s probably a pretty reasonable expectation — he’s getting to the age where power output starts to slide and he doesn’t have the kind of approach that would allow him to thrive once his bat speed falls off a cliff. I think he’s probably got one or two more productive seasons left in his bat and there’s always the possibility he bounces all the way back to his ‘24 level.

Keep or cut?

I think I’m cutting all three of my shares of Hernández. His projection isn’t terrible but two out of the last three years have been extremely disappointing. I’m just not comfortable paying that much salary to see if he can figure things out in 2026 as he enters the decline phase of his career.

Kerry Carpenter, OF
Salary: $15
Average Salary: $10
2025 P/G: 4.44
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.37

How do you evaluate a part-time player who absolutely scorches the ball as the strong side of a platoon but useless when facing same-handed pitching. And what if that part-time player was coming off a down season where many of his offensive metrics took significant steps backwards. That’s the dilemma posed by Kerry Carpenter.

Because he’s the strong side of a platoon, Carpenter’s fantasy performance needs all sorts of context to fully understand. He’s primarily used against right-handed pitching and often pinch hits late in games if he isn’t starting. Those extra appearances off the bench artificially depress his overall points per game, though we can use points per game started, or more simply, points per plate appearance, to cut through some of that noise. Here’s a look at the various lenses we can use to clear up our evaluation of his production:

Kerry Carpenter, Ottoneu Fantasy Production
Year Overall P/G vR P/G Starting P/G Overall P/PA vR P/PA Starting P/PA
2023 5.18 4.61 5.41 1.33 1.39 1.33
2024 5.43 5.61 6.07 1.60 1.78 1.59
2025 4.44 4.07 5.08 1.24 1.31 1.27

When looking at points earned in games he started, Carpenter wasn’t too far off his production from his breakout two years ago and he looks a lot better from a points per plate appearance stand point as well.

The source of his struggles in 2025 seem to stem from a 54 point drop in BABIP and a 3.5 drop in walk rate. All of his underlying batted ball and plate discipline metrics look in line with his established norms and he even posted a career-best 22.8% strikeout rate last year.

Keep or cut?

I’m having a hard time justifying keeping a platoon outfielder for $15, even if he absolutely crushes right-handed pitching. The highs of 2024 are probably a high-water mark for him and Steamer isn’t predicting a big step forward for him in 2026. $10 is a more reasonable value for a really good part-time player like Carpenter, but a $15 salary gets squeezed off the roster.

Trent Grisham, OF
Salary: $7, $5, $4
Average Salary: $5
2025 P/G: 5.35
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.19

After settling in as a defense-first center fielder in San Diego, Trent Grisham enjoyed a huge breakout in New York in 2025. He’s shown he’s capable of producing at the plate in the distant past — he posted a 110 wRC+ across his first two seasons in San Diego in 2020 and ‘21 — but hasn’t hit very well until last year. All of a sudden, he started mashing the ball and wound up blasting a career-high 34 home runs in 2025.

Grisham has always had a patient approach at the plate and his batted ball quality significantly improved after joining the Yankees in 2024. The biggest difference was turning his sometimes overly patient approach into selective aggression on pitches in the zone early in the count. Ambushing pitchers when they tried to steal strikes worked wonders for Grisham and represents a real change in approach for him.

Surprisingly, Steamer believes in the changes Grisham made. It would have been easy to write off his breakout as a one-year blip, but the projections are calling for a solid follow-up season, though not necessarily up to the heights of his breakout.

Keep or cut?

I see the improvements in Grisham’s approach and batted ball quality and I’m willing to bet that they stick around in 2026. I’m keeping all three of my shares.