Author Archive

What’s a Wieters?

To answer the headline’s question, a Wieters is numerus ûnus catcherus prospectus… or in a language that is understandable by the rest of humankind: the number one catching prospect (if not the No. 1 prospect generally speaking) in all of Major League Baseball.

In case you haven’t heard, the Baltimore Orioles organization has promoted catcher Matt Wieters to the Majors and he is expected to make his long-awaited Major League debut tonight against the Detroit Tigers. The switch-hitting catcher’s promotion has been the most anticipated call-up of the season (with apologies to David Price, who actually debuted last year).

Selected fifth overall in the 2007 amateur draft out of Georgia Tech University, the talented backstop was in the mix to go No. 1 overall (Price was nabbed there by Tampa Bay instead) but his price tag and advisor (Mr. Scott Boras, come on down…) scared away the first four clubs in the draft. Probably no other club (and fan base) is more upset over the decision to pass on The Wieters than the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, which chose fourth and took college left-handed reliever Daniel Moskos out of Clemson University.

The Pirates converted Moskos into a starting pitcher, watched him post a 5.95 ERA and then threatened to send him back to the ‘pen. In 2009, as Wieters prepares to don his catching gear for his MLB debut, Moskos is struggling in double-A with a 4.53 ERA in nine games. He’s allowed 51 hits in 45.2 innings of work and he’s struck out just 17 batters… which is a dismally-bad 3.35 K/9. There had best be a blackout in the Pittsburgh area tonight for the Orioles’ broadcast on MLB.com. It could get ugly… and very, very depressing.

Anyway, back to happier thoughts. For Orioles fans, Wieters represents another cog in what should be a very good Orioles team over the next decade. Along with the new catcher, the club also has some impressive outfielders including Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold (and some guy named Felix Pie, if he ever realizes his potential). Second baseman Brian Roberts is a great veteran leader, and he’s still only 31 years old.

Within the next year, the club’s brutal pitching staff should receive help from a trio of talented starters: RHP Chris Tillman, LHP Brian Matusz, and RHP Jake Arrieta. RHP David Hernandez just had his solid MLB debut last night, and appears to have the potential to be a good No. 4 starter. And RHP Brandon Erbe should not be forgotten about, either.

Much like Wieters, don’t expect miracles with the club overnight. He is not going to instantly transform the club into a winner – and he’s probably not going to pull an Albert Pujols and become the best hitter in baseball within the first week of his career. Wieters, though, does have an outside shot at winning the American League Rookie of the Year award, if he can put up half decent numbers. The current race leader is probably Detroit’s Rick Porcello (whom, sadly, Wieters will miss facing in his debut series). Beyond that, there is not much to get excited about this year in terms of rookie performances (so far).

Speaking of rookies, Wieters (who turned 23 last week) should have better long-term potential then, say, last year’s National League Rookie of the Year (and catcher) Geovany Soto of the Chicago Cubs, who’s looked brutal this season (and pretty much every other year of the 26-year-old’s nine-year career, save for 2007 and 2008). Seriously, what’s up with Soto?

Wieters’ numbers have been down at triple-A in 2009, in part due to a slow start (.260 in April) and in part due to a minor injury that kept him out of the lineup for a few games. Overall, though, his numbers on the year are still solid at .305/.387/.504 in 39 games, which gives you a pretty good idea of just how awesome people expect him to be… because those numbers would be a pretty nice triple-slash line for a lot of people during their career year.

The best part about Wieters is, while he has the best offensive potential for any catcher this side of Mike Piazza, he’s not all offense. The Orioles prospect is also a very good (definitely not just average) defensive catcher. He threw out about 40 percent of base stealers last year, calls a great game and receives the ball very well.

The hype on Wieters is justified. Let’s enjoy the show.


Minor Impacts: May 28

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Andrew McCutchen: When the Pirates organization is done trying to save money and decides to promote Andrew McCutchen, current right-fielder Brandon Moss should be rightfully shifted back to the fourth outfielder role. For the second straight year in triple-A, McCutchen is showing the ability to play good defense, steal bases and hit for average. He currently has a triple-slash line of .291/.354/.473 with nine steals in 41 games. He’s also striking out just 10% of the time, which is excellent news for a top-of-the-order player. The club could use his spark.

Justin Turner: With the promotions of Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and Jason Berken, Baltimore has been turning to its minor league system as of late to infuse some talent into the roster in what is turning into another murky year in the AL East standings. Infielder Justin Turner, 24, has been hitting very well recently in triple-A and he could eventually take the place of disappointing utility player Robert Andino. Turner, who was acquired from Cincinnati this past off-season in the Ramon Hernandez trade, is hitting .405 in his last 10 games and .356 in May.

Wes Roemer: A big, strong right-handed pitcher, Wes Roemer has never posted flashy numbers but his base statistics have been respectable this season. Recently promoted to double-A, the former supplemental first round pick is having a lot of luck with putting the ball in play with a new emphasis on sinking the ball. He’s striking out just over five batters per nine innings but he doesn’t walk many hitters and he has yet to allow a home run in 46.2 innings this season after struggling with the long ball in 2008. Arizona could use the pitching help, so Roemer could get a look before too long, even if it’s in the bullpen.

Matt Maloney: Like Roemer, Matt Maloney is having success in 2009 despite non-sexy numbers. The 25-year-old southpaw has now spent parts of three seasons in triple-A but has yet to receive a call-up to the Majors because of the Reds’ pitching depth. This season, Maloney has walked just seven batters in more than 50 innings of work and he’s struck out 41 (7.19 K/9) so he deserves a look in the near future. With a repertoire that includes a fastball that works in the high 80s (and tops out around 91-92), as well as a plus changeup and two average breaking balls, Maloney has more than enough to survive as a solid No. 4 starter in the National League.

George Kontos: Yet another pitcher who succeeds with modest stuff, George Kontos gets lost in the Yankees system amongst some of the bigger-named prospects (with stronger arms). This right-hander, though, strikes out a healthy number of batters (8.1 k/9 career) despite working in the high 80s and low 90s. His best pitch is a slider, although he also has a curveball and changeup. Combined between double-A and triple-A this season, Kontos has allowed 36 hits and struck out 42 batters in 42.1 innings of work. Once he improves his control (19 walks), he could get a look in the bullpen with all the movement being made in the big-league bullpen this season.

Vince Mazzaro: The Oakland Athletics organization has leaned heavily on its young pitching with mixed results in 2009. The club, though, has yet to take a look at Vince Mazzaro at the Major League level. The sinker-slider pitcher is having a nice season in triple-A at the age of 22. In 50.2 innings, the right-hander has allowed just 38 hits and 16 walks (2.84 BB/9). He’s also seen just two balls leave the yard on a fly in a good hitters’ league, thanks to a 59% ground ball rate.


A Foxy Move

The Chicago Cubs finally found a way to make room for the hottest hitter in the minor leagues. Jake Fox has reportedly been recalled from triple-A Iowa, with infielder Aaron Miles landing on the disabled list.

Fox, a first baseman, was leading the triple-A Pacific Coast League in all three Triple-Crown categories: average (.423), home runs (17), and RBI (50) in 149 at-bats. Now, before you get too excited, there is some fine print that comes with Fox. 1) He’s not your typical prospect at the age of 26 (going on 27 in July). 2) The Pacific Coast League is an extremely good hitter’s league. 3) He cannot play defensive to save his life and is a below-average first baseman and has no hope of playing another position.

As we all know, Derrek Lee is the incumbent first baseman in Chicago and although he’s struggling (.248/.314/.416), he’s due $13 million annually through 2010. Sweet Lou is desperate for offense, but he’s not about to abandon one of his veteran regulars. As such, Fox’s playing opportunities should be limited to pinch-hitting duties and the occasional start at first base. His situation is actually fairly similar to that of Micah Hoffpauir, another over-aged rookie who posted solid offensive numbers in the minors. Hoffpauir, though, has more defensive flexibility.

Last season, while playing at double-A, Fox hit 25 homers in 388 at-bats and posted a triple-slash line of .307/.397/.580 with an ISO of .273. He actually appeared in seven games with Chicago in 2007 but hit just .143/.200/.286 (although both his hits were doubles). Fox was originally selected by the Cubs in the third round of the 2003 draft out of the University of Michigan. Drafted as a catcher, Fox played himself off the position by 2007. For interest’s sake, here is a sneak peek at his pre-draft scouting report from Baseball America:

Fox enjoyed a breakout season with the bat, hitting .365 and leading the Big 10 Conference in homers (14) and RBIs (63). He drives balls 450 feet in batting practice, and might have had more homers if he didn’t play his home games in cavernous Ray Fisher Stadium. He is exceptionally strong at 6 feet and 210 pounds, and has worked hard to improve his catching. He still has just average skills behind the plate, with below-average hands and arm strength.

The best scenario for Fox (barring an injury to Lee) would be for him to perform well in limited duty over the next one to two months until he can be packaged in a trade to an American League club for a veteran who can help the Cubbies in the race to a World Series title.


The Long-Awaited Arrival of F-Mart

Half a game out of first place in the National League East division, the New York Mets club is struggling to field a competitive lineup with its infirmary overflowing. Everyday players Brian Schneider, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and Ryan Church are all on the disabled list – as is back-up infielder Alex Cora.

One of the beneficiaries of this unfortunate situation is the club’s top offensive prospect Fernando Martinez. Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, Martinez’ big-league arrival has been highly anticipated by many. The expectations have probably been a little unreasonable, which is to be expected when someone plays for a New York sports team. Martinez has received some flak for being inconsistent to this point in his career, but he started playing professional baseball at 17, he reached double-A as a teenager and he’s still just 20 years old. Patience, as they say, is a virtue.

Throughout his inconsistent play, Martinez has shown flashes of brilliance. He does a lot of things well and he’s loaded with raw talent. Prior to 2009, Martinez had never hit more than eight home runs in a season and that came at double-A in 2008 in 352 at-bats. This year in triple-A, he hit eight homers in just 165 at-bats and posted an ISO rate of .261. As well, he had a batting average of .291, which is impressive considering he had a slow start to the year and hit .233/.287/.411 in April.

The negatives in Martinez’ offensive game continue to be his lack of patience (6.4 BB% in 2009) and his lack of stolen bases. He’s considered (incorrectly) by some to be a five-tool talent, but he lacks first-step quickness with his average speed, which means he’ll never be a good base stealer. As well, he’s an OK-but-not-great center-fielder and will likely end up at an outfield corner for the majority of his career.

Despite the negatives in his game, there are more than enough positives to get excited about Martinez’ future with the Mets. Because of his age, there will likely be plenty of growing pains along the way, but he should develop into a 15-20 home run hitter with the ability to hit between .270-.300, especially if he develops a more patient approach at the plate with experience. Expect him to struggle against southpaws early in his career (.236/.308/.391 vs LHP in his minor-league career), which could result in a platoon situation.

The positives definitely out-weigh the negatives with Fernando Martinez.


Who is Jamie Hoffmann?

The Los Angeles Dodgers organization has found itself searching to fill the void left by the suspension of outfielder Manny Ramirez. Veteran Juan Pierre is doing his best to fill those big shoes, but let’s be honest with ourselves. Even if he hits .350 for the rest of the season (And that’s pretty laughable), Pierre is a below-average offensive left-fielder.

The club has turned its attention to outfield prospect Jamie Hoffmann (with two ‘Ns’). Like Pittsburgh’s Nyjer Morgan, Hoffmann was a talented junior hockey player. He turned down the opportunity to play U.S. college hockey for a good program at Colorado College (He was also an eighth-round selection by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2003).

So obviously, we know Hoffmann has some athletic skill despite being signed as a non-drafted amateur free agent out of a Minnesota high school. Hoffmann, 24, is a player that does a little bit of everything well. He lacks that one tool that really makes him stand out, though. He can play all three outfield positions well. He can hit for a respectable average, but he’s not going to hit .300 consistently. Hoffmann is also probably good for 10-15 home runs in a full season, as well as 15-20 stolen bases. His early power display (.500 ISO in four games) at the MLB level is not for real.

He began the 2009 season in double-A but was promoted after hitting .307/.457/.495 in 29 games. After just eight games in triple-A, Hoffmann was called up to the Majors for the first time. In a full year at double-A in 2008, Hoffmann hit .278/.350/.395 with 10 homers and 28 stolen bases in 37 attempts. His plate rates were respectable at 10.2 BB% and 15.3 K%.

In essence, the right-handed hitter is a good complementary player, who will not be a star. That said, he has the potential to grit-out a few above-average MLB seasons if given the opportunity. Hoffmann could also be a good platoon partner with Pierre for the remainder of Manny’s suspension. Pierre is currently hitting .536 against southpaws in a small sample size, but that is not going to continue.

Long-term, Xavier Paul (who was already been called up and subsequently got hurt) is a better prospect, but Hoffmann, as mentioned, is a solid ball player in his own right. The club’s top offensive prospect (and outfielder) Andrew Lambo, 20, is hitting .275/.330/.444 in 43 double-A games.


The Price is (Finally) Right for Rays

The top pitching prospect in all of baseball is back where he belongs.

The Tampa Bay Rays organization has promoted LHP David Price from triple-A and he will start against Cleveland tonight (May 25). He’s taking the roster spot of veteran LHP Scott Kazmir, who was placed on the disabled list with a quadriceps strain. Many baseball experts expected Price to begin the season in Tampa Bay, but the organization claimed it was in Price’s best interest to get some more experience in the minors. Some cynics have suggested that the organization was merely trying to save money by delaying Price’s arbitration eligibility and free agency. Our very own Dave Cameron chimed in on this very topic back at the beginning of April.

With the formerly-first-place Toronto Blue Jays faltering, Tampa Bay is only four games out of first place, despite playing .500 ball to this point and being in fourth place in the American League East. One could look at the AL East race and say that Price’s presence on the Major League roster could have made a significant difference in the standings. The Rays are 10th in ERA, and third in most walks allowed, but the pitching as a whole has been mostly middle-of-the-road statistically speaking. In the starting rotation, though, Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir have struggled mightily this season. Sonnanstine has allowed 63 hits in 46.1 innings, he has a 6.60 ERA and the club has won only four of his nine starts. Kazmir has allowed 60 hits in 45.2 innings with a 7.69 ERA. The club has won five of his nine starts. He’s lost a couple miles per hour off his fastball, and he’s not having any luck mixing in the slider more often.

Price, though, has not looked overly sharp himself this season – especially compared to his 2008 season, which ended with him pitching in the Major League playoffs. The left-hander had a 3.93 ERA (4.71 FIP) in triple-A and he allowed 28 hits in 34.1 innings of work. His walk rate was high at 4.72 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was impressive at 9.17 K/9. Along with the control issues, his home run rate (1.31 HR/9) is also troubling. It could, though, be a case of under-performing after the letdown of being demoted to triple-A to begin the year. In his last minor league start, with whispers of an impending promotion, Price worked five no-hit innings with two walks and nine strikeouts against the Rochester Redwings squad (Minnesota’s affiliate).

If that is the case, and 2008 Price emerges in the Majors this year, then the Rays have a bright, shining beacon of hope for the 2009 season. He also has the potential to greatly aid fantasy baseball owners desperately in need of some strong pitching performances.

It’s only May – so it’s still anybody’s ball game.


Rookie Watcher: Who Wants It?

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria is a special talent, so it’s not really fair to compare other players to him. With that said, though, the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year’s performance last season has left a lasting impression that no rookie has been able to come close to in 2009. One-third of the way through the 2009 season, there are no clear-cut favorites for the Rookie of the Year award in either the American League or the National League.

In fact, two of the early favorites for the award, both outfielders, have already been demoted to the minors in Toronto’s Travis Snider, and Florida’s Cameron Maybin. The pre-season AL favorites, LHP David Price (Tampa Bay) and C Matt Wieters (Baltimore), have not been recalled from the minors yet. Time will be running out soon for those two players, as it gets harder and harder to justify giving the award to someone if they only play a partial season in the Majors.

The American League

The Favorite(s): Elvis Andrus has been one of the key reasons for the Rangers’ first-place play so far this season. The 20-year-old shortstop has displayed solid defense while also contributing a respectable offensive line of .270/.311/.417 in 35 games. If he showed a willingness to walk a little more and use his speed on the bases, Andrus could run away with the award. Japanese import Koji Uehara has been the Orioles’ best starter so far in 2009. He’s given up a few too many hits, but the right-hander has walked just nine batters in 47.2 innings of work. Uehara is already 34 years of age, though, so there likely isn’t any upside here. Another right-handed rookie in the American League has a ton of upside. Detroit’s Rick Porcello is just 20 years of age and he is one of the rare rookies this season that has shown vast improvements as the year progresses. His strikeout rate is still a little troubling at just 5.67 K/9 but he’s struck out five batters in each of his last two starts (10 Ks in 11 IP). Porcello is also inducing a ton of ground-ball outs.

The New Contestants: Baltimore recently promoted outfielder Nolan Reimold to the Majors after he hit .394/.485/.743 in 31 games. He’s had at least one hit in six of his seven MLB games so far, and he has two multiple-hit contests. Cleveland outfielder Matt LaPorta has a slightly higher ceiling than Reimold, but he’s had a slower start to his MLB career. Through 11 games, he’s hitting just .206 with one home run. Left-handed pitcher Derek Holland has been pitching well in the Rangers’ bullpen, which has earned him his first first MLB start this weekend. He has a 4.85 ERA in seven appearances, but five of the seven earned runs he’s allowed came in one outing.

The Long-Shot: Matt Palmer, a 30-year-old rookie, will not wow you with his stuff. The right-hander works in the high 80s with his fastball and relies on pitching to contact with a cutter. He has, though, allowed just 23 hits in 31.2 innings of work and he’s recorded wins in each of his five starts. Not bad for a minor league free agent pick-up out of the Giants organization.

The National League

The Favorite(s): St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is currently the NL RoY favorite almost by default, as no other player has stepped up in pursuit of the award. Rasmus is playing good defense and showing some power (.155 ISO), but he’s hitting just .250 with a .328 on-base percentage. The left-handed hitter is batting just .129 versus southpaws.

The New Contestants: Arizona recently promoted outfielder Gerardo Parra from double-A, where he was hitting very well (.361 avg, more BBs than Ks). He’s now hitting .333 with two homers in seven big-league games. Second baseman Chris Coghlan has been playing all over the field for Florida and has seen a fair bit of time in the outfield now that Maybin has been demoted. He’s likely the second baseman of the future, though, when Dan Uggla gets too expensive. Infielder Adam Rosales is another player who can play all over the field. He was promoted to fill-in at third base after incumbent Edwin Encarnacion went down with an injury in Cincinnati. Rosales was hitting .421 in 17 triple-A games, but he’s down to .240 in 20 MLB contests.

The Long-Shot: A 14th-round selection from the 1999 draft, Bobby Scales spent 10 seasons in the minors, mostly with San Diego. A career line of .285/.375/.432 was not enough to get him a chance in the Majors, in part due to poor defense as he played both the infield (mostly second) and the outfield. Scales spent parts of seven seasons in triple-A. He is a long shot for the NL RoY award because his playing time will be limited in Chicago.


Minor Impacts: May 21

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Brian Matusz: The 2009 MLB amateur draft is just around the corner, so let’s take a look at one of the top picks from 2008 that has been absolutely dealing in high-A ball. Left-handed starter Brian Matusz is probably ready for the challenge of double-A, but Baltimore has been cautious with its top prospects in the last couple of years (including Matt Wieters and Jake Arrieta). Matusz currently has allowed 42 hits in 46.2 innings of work but his strikeout rate is really impressive at 11.57 K/9. His walk rate is OK at 3.63 BB/9. In his last three games, the southpaw has allowed six walks (including four in one game) but he’s kept hitters to just 14 hits in 19.2 innings, with 28 Ks.

Aaron Poreda: Like Matusz, Aaron Poreda is another former first-round draft pick. He’s taken a little longer to get the hang of pro ball, but he’s having a very nice season in double-A for the White Sox. In fact, it’s a little surprising that he hasn’t received a promotion to triple-A, after spending half of 2008 at the same minor league level – but it’s probably the base-on-balls. After walking 22 batters in 87.2 double-A innings in ’08, Poreda has issued 19 free passes in 33.1 innings this season. On the plus side, though, he has allowed just 23 hits and zero home runs. A two-pitch hurler, Poreda’s slider is just an OK pitch and it’s his fastball that will earn him a big-league job, as it has touched 100 mph. It’s probably about time Chicago bit the bullet and placed the big left-hander in the bullpen and began to groom him as Bobby Jenks‘ successor.

Hector Rondon: This right-hander burst upon the scene in 2008 and has continued to grow into one of the Indians’ top prospects. Hector Rondon currently has a 1.95 ERA (2.61 FIP) in double-A and has allowed 29 hits in 32.1 innings of work. His walk rate is at just 1.95 BB/9, down from an already respectable 2.61 from 2008. Rondon’s strikeout rate has dropped a bit from last year’s 9.00 K/9 but it’s still solid at 7.79 K/9. Impressively, he’s also allowed just one home run despite allowing more fly-ball outs than ground-ball outs, which is the one thing he really needs to work on to take his game to the next level.

Josh Thole: Let’s go off the board now and talk about a couple players you probably have not heard much about. As a 13th round draft pick out of an Illinois high school in 2005, Josh Thole has understandably flown under the radar for a while. His blip began to show up on the radar in 2008 when he hit .300 in high-A ball. The catcher cannot hide any longer, though. Thole is currently hitting .349/.418/.476 in 32 double-A games at the age of 22. He’s also a left-handed hitting catcher, which is extremely valuable and somewhat rare. He’s still raw behind the plate though, having played mostly first base prior to 2008. Thole is showing signs of improving, as he has yet to make an error behind the dish and he’s improved his throwing, going from a caught-stealing rate of 22% in ’08 to 42% so far in ’09.

Cyle Hankerd: This talented outfielder is getting back on track. Cyle Hankerd had a dominating pro debut in 2006 after being selected out of USC in the third round of the draft. He hit more than .370 with 12 home runs in half a season and ended the year in high-A ball. The shine came off Hankerd over the next two seasons though, as he struggled to hit for power and his batting average kept dipping lower and lower. Repeating double-A in 2009, he’s starting to show signs of taking off again. The 24-year-old prospect is hitting .362/.434/.543 with an ISO of .181 in 36 games. Hankerd had wrist problems in 2007, which resulted in surgery. It often takes players about two years to recover from that type of injury, so the Arizona prospect’s surge could be related to finally being healthy. Although he has just three homers, Hankerd also has 12 doubles in 116 at-bats, which is just five fewer than he had in 436 at-bats last season. As long as he continues to show some sock in his bat, Hankerd has the chance to be at least a league-average left fielder.

Give the Guy a Chance: Cleveland’s Jordan Brown just cannot catch a break. The first baseman has been stuck in an organization that has had Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko blocking both the first base and designated hitter positions in the Majors. Then the club brought in left-fielder Matt LaPorta, a top offensive prospect from Milwaukee, whose best position is probably 1B or DH. Brown has a career minor league line of .303/.373/.464 in parts of five seasons since being selected out of the University of Arizona in the fourth round of the 2005 amateur draft. The biggest knock on Brown is his lack of power, but he has a similar skill set that that of former Indians first baseman Sean Casey, who put together a very solid 12-year MLB career. The left-handed batter is currently in triple-A Columbus hitting .348/.347/.583 in 34 games. At the very least, Brown should be a valuable pinch hitter for a National League team and he even has a career batting average of .293 versus southpaw pitchers.


Arencibia on Fire

Baltimore’s Matt Wieters, 23, is the best backstop prospect in all of professional baseball. He hit more than .350 last year with 27 home runs, 91 RBI and 82 walks, while splitting time between high-A and double-A.

But Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia was pretty good too. Playing at the same levels in 2008, the 23-year-old catcher hit .298 with 27 home runs and 105 RBI. His downfall, though, was his walk rate, which saw him take a free pass only 18 times in 510 at-bats.

Both catchers began 2009 in triple-A and both players had slow starts to the season, although Wieters was also hampered by a minor injury. Arencibia’s struggles may have been related to his approach at the plate and the better (smarter?) pitching he’s now facing. If you know a guy is going to swing at everything and won’t take a walk, why give him something to hit?

In 133 at-bats this season, Arencibia is hitting .314 when he’s ahead in the count. When he’s behind, though, he has a .179 average with zero walks. In April, Toronto’s top hitting prospect (now that Travis Snider is in Toronto) batted .224/.257/.358 with no home runs and no walks in 67 at-bats.

Fast-forward to May 19, though, and Arencibia is hitting .288/.356/.697 for the month (66 at-bats). Overall, his numbers have improved to a respectable .256/.308/.526 in 133 at-bats. He’s also slammed seven home runs this month. In his last 10 games, Arencibia is hitting .385 and has five of those home runs in just 39 at-bats.

Can we see any reasons why the numbers have improved? Well, it could be the warmer weather (although the club plays its home games in Las Vegas). It could be that his luck is improving and the BABIP (.257) is starting to creep up to where it should be. But it could also be the seven walks that the catcher has taken in May (16 games). The walks don’t directly equal success, obviously. But it means Arencibia is being more patient, seeing more pitches – and quite possibly hitting better pitches.

Only 16 picks separated Wieters, a Georgia Tech graduate, and Arencibia, from the University of Tennessee, in the first round of the 2007 draft. Wieters, selected fifth overall, will no doubt reach the Majors first – but Arencibia should not be far behind, especially if he continues to show a willingness to be more patience and selective at the plate.


Getting Ready to Bard the Door

The Boston Red Sox pitching depth is just getting ridiculous. This past off-season, I took a look at the incredible number of starting pitchers that the organization has that are ready to pitch in the Majors (which includes Michael Bowden, who is currently dealing in triple-A).

That depth is now starting to spill over into the bullpen. The club recently recalled Daniel Bard from triple-A. The right-hander is arguably the top relief prospect in all of baseball. Bard’s emergence is truly impressive, considering he all but flamed out in 2007 while pitching in high-A ball as a starter at one of best hitter’s parks (and leagues) in professional baseball. He posted a walk rate of 14.85 BB/9 in 13.1 innings and allowed 21 hits. His ERA was 10.13. The now-23-year-old hurler was demoted down to low-A that year where he posted a 6.42 ERA in 61.2 innings.

Moved to the bullpen in 2008, Bard improved his walk rate to 1.29 in low-A ball, with a strikeout rate of 13.82 K/9, and then skipped over high-A and dominated double-A with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. At triple-A in 2009, he posted rates of 2.81 BB/9 and 16.31 K/9 in 16 innings of work. Bard allowed just six hits. His control is still iffy so there is room for improvement (which is a little scary to consider) and his mid-to-high-90s fastball is by far his best pitch, although the slider has improved a lot.

Now in the Red Sox bullpen, Bard will likely be used in low leverage situations (Thanks to the presence of Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and even Takashi Saito) and his previous experience as a starter will come in handy if the club needs to use him for two or three innings. There is no doubt, though, that he will be the club’s set-up man in the near future, as long as the improvements in his control hold (or improve). When Jonathan Papelbon’s time as closer expires for the Red Sox, Bard should be ready to assume that role as well.

With his high strikeout totals and dominating stuff, Bard will no doubt be of great value to fantasy baseball owners in the not-too-distant future. Just be patient.