Author Archive

Arizona Fall League Update

The Arizona Fall League, Major League Baseball’s additional development league for prospects, is starting to wind down for 2009. Let’s have a look at some of the key prospects currently playing in the league.

Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs’ shortstop prospect is looking to make MLB incumbent Ryan Theriot nervous about his job security. The truth of the matter is that Castro currently projects to post similar numbers to that of Mr. Theriot. However, Castro has the edge defensively, so that could cause a shift to second base for the veteran infielder, which would then make Mike Fontenot expendable… perhaps after one more season.

In ’09, Castro hit .302/.340/.391 in high-A, where he spent the majority of the season. He also received a 31-game trial at double-A and held his own as a 19-year-old infielder by hitting .288/.347/.396. He stole 22 bases in 33 attempts in high-A – showing he needs to continue working on his base running skills – but he was perfect in six tries in double-A.

Still very young and developing, Castro looks capable of providing a .280-300 average, five to 10 homers and 20-30 steals in his prime. He’ll likely never be a run producer, and he’ll need to show a little more patience (5.0 BB% in high-A) to score a lot of runs at the top of the order. ETA: Mid-2011

Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
This former Yankees prospect has found a new lease on life in the Pirates organization. Tabata had a solid season in his first year in the organization… despite a rough start with some off-field controversy. Still just (supposedly) 21, Tabata began the year in double-A and hit .303/.370/.404 with and ISO of just .101 in 228 at-bats. Moved up to triple-A, the outfielder hit .276/.333/.410 in 134 at-bats. He did bump his ISO up to .134 and his strikeout rate remained good at 13.4%.

Unfortunately, Tabata was successful stealing bases in just 11 out 19 attempts. He’s never been a great base runner and his lower half continues to thicken up so we’re not likely to see a lot of steals in the future. This is a bad thing if Tabata’s power fails to develop, because it’s below-average for a corner outfielder (His likely destination in the Majors because he projects to lose range in center field). He has just one homer in 101 AFL at-bats. ETA: Mid-2010

Jonathan Gaston, OF, Houston Astros
Gaston may have excited more than a few fantasy-league managers in 2009 when he hit 35 homers (An out-of-this-world .320 ISO) and showed speed by stealing 14 bases and legging out 15 triples. He also hit 100 RBI and scored 119 runs, all of which would make him an extremely valuable fantasy prospect. However, he was playing in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball and he posted a strikeout rate of 31.7 K%.

Now, many fantasy leagues won’t penalize you for strikeouts, but they will negatively impact his batting average, which was .278 in high-A ball. During the regular season, Gaston had two very hot months (May and June) when he hit for average, but he hit below .250 in April, July and August. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .111 against southpaws in the AFL in a small-sample size, but he also struggled against them in the regular season: .228/.335/.443 (.373 BABIP). Key an eye on Gaston, but don’t get too excited just yet; the 2010 season will be a big one for the Astros prospect. ETA: Mid-to-late 2011

Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals
When an organization has Mike MacDougal as its closer, you know management is praying for something better to come along. Storen, a first-round draft pick from ’09, is currently rocketing through the minors and is on a collision course with the Nationals’ closer role, perhaps sooner rather than later. In ’09, he held batters to a .162 batting average while posting a strikeout rate of 11.61 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.89 (although it slipped later on in the year as he tired).

Even though he posted a solid HR/9 rate of 0.47, Storen is a flyball pitcher (32.6 GB%) so he could end up being a little homer prone in the Majors. He held right-handed batters to a .111 batting average, but he was aided by a ridiculous .158 BABIP. As a fastball-slider pitcher, he may need to find a weapon to combat good left-handed hitters if he’s going to develop into an impact closer. ETA: Mid-2010


Traded: Mark Teahen for Chris Getz, Josh Fields

The Chicago White Sox organization has traded rookie second baseman Chris Getz and disappointing third baseman Josh Fields, a former first round draft pick, to the Kansas City Royals for infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen.

With a .323 wOBA in ’09, Teahen is nothing special as a hitter, especially for someone who spends most of his time at third base or in right field. The 28-year-old posted a 0.3 WAR in ’09 and was a both a below-average hitter and a below-average fielder at every position he played at. For fantasy managers, Teahen has value simply because of his versatility; he should be eligible for third base and the outfield in all formats, while he also appeared in 11 games at first base and three games at second base. He is good for a batting average of about .250-270 and, if he plays everyday, he should produce 12-18 homers, although the move to Chicago could inflate his offensive numbers. With the outfield depth looking pretty good, Teahen should see everyday duty at third base with Gordon Beckham moving back to his natural position at shortstop and Alexei Ramirez sliding back to second base.

Fields wore out his welcome in Chicago in ’09 with another disappointing season. He hit just .222/.301/.347 in 239 at-bats and was eventually pushed aside by Beckham. Fields will turn 27 in December so time is running out for him to reclaim the form that saw him slug 23 homers in 373 at-bats for the White Sox in ’07. Even then, though, he hit just .244/.308/.480. He has enough power to be valuable in deep AL formats, but he will likely do a lot of damage in batting average and he doesn’t get on base enough to help in runs. Fields made 17 appearances at first base in ’09 so he should be eligible there, as well as at the hot corner. Don’t expect him to see much playing time if Alex Gordon can turn things around.

The White Sox organization parts ways with Getz after handing the rookie the starting second base job in ’09. The 26-year-old infielder missed time with injuries but he hit .261/.324/.347 in 375 at-bats and stole 25 bases in 27 attempts. His speed makes him an interesting fantasy player, as he should improve offensively in ’10, although the lineup around him could be weaker. Getz isn’t going to drive in runs so he needs to improve his walk rate (7.4%) so he can throw up a better runs-scored total. He was overpowered by good fastballs in ’09, but hopefully that was caused – at least somewhat – by the broken finger and oblique injuries (His slugging percentage plummeted in the last two months of the season). Because of his speed, Getz is potentially a better fantasy option at second base than Royals incumbent Alberto Callaspo, who probably won’t drive in 70+ runs again and his power output exceeded expectations based on his minor-league numbers. Monitor the race in spring training, though, to see if Getz will earn enough playing time to be of value.


Arizona Fall League Update

Let’s have a look at some of the prospects doing well during the fall developmental league in Arizona. All the players listed below could pop up on Major League rosters in 2010, so you may want to remember their names.

Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles NL
Lambo is having some luck in the AFL after a down year in double-A as a 20 year old (He turned 21 recently). During the regular season, the outfielder hit .256/.311/.407 in 492 at-bats. He posted a low BABIP at .298 and did not walk much (7.3 BB%). The left-handed batter did show good gap power with 39 doubles (and 11 homers). Interestingly, he hits southpaws better than right-handers: .317/.372/.523 vs .270/.333/.422 in his three-year career. Manny Ramirez will be a free agent after the 2010 season, right about the time Lambo should be ready for a full-time gig in the Majors. With Ramirez’ advancing age, it becomes more likely that he could spend time on the disabled list in ’10. Lambo could be one of the first players in line for playing time should that happen.

Jordan Danks, OF, Chicago AL
The key with the AFL is too not get too excited with the batting average or how many homers a player hits. Most players are there for extra work, which likely means there is something that they need to improve upon. Danks is a perfect example of that… He was off to an excellent season in ’09 before fading at double-A in the second half. His raw power does not play well in games, in terms of home run power, and he hit just nine homers this past year in just over 400 at-bats. As a result, his strikeout rate of 26.0% is rather high. Danks has made nice strides in the AFL by striking out just 10 times in 58 at-bats. Even better, he’s walk 12 times. If he can keep that up, it will significantly improve his other numbers, which will then make him a more valuable addition to your fantasy squads.

Josh Wilkie, RHP, Washington
The non-drafted free agents are always a good story. Wilkie went undrafted out of George Washington University and he was picked up by the Nationals shortly after the ’06 draft. He posted solid numbers in high-A ball in ’08 and he made it all the way to triple-A in ’09. The right-hander, who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft, began this past season in double-A, where he allowed 48 hits in 49.1 innings. He also posted a walk rate of 2.37 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.30 K/9. His rates improved in 22.1 triple-A innings to 1.61 BB/9 and 10.07 K/9. He also improved his ground-ball rate over ’08 by almost 10% to 54% in ’09. Wilkie has saved 23 games over the past four seasons in the minors, so he has an outside shot of eventually becoming a setup man, and possibly grabbing a few saves here and there, although he does not have a knock-out repertoire: 88-91 fastball, curveball, change-up.

Josh Judy, RHP, Cleveland
A good, reliable reliever is hard to find. Judy is off to a good start in his career. Judy has a better chance of seeing save opportunities in the Majors than Wilkie (above) because the Indians prospect has a stronger repertoire: 90-94 mph fastball, slider and occasional change-up. This past season in double-A, the 23-year-old hurler allowed 35 hits in 49.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 3.28 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. Judy also allowed just two homers (0.36 HR/9). He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground with a career ground-ball rate right around 50%. In ’09, Judy limited batters to a line-drive rate of just 9.6%. If Chris Perez or Jess Todd (or dare I say Adam Miller) are not the long-term closer answer in Cleveland, Judy could be.

Donnie Veal, LHP, Pittsburgh
Is he just teasing us? Veal has long been an interesting pitcher because of his hard stuff from the left side. However, the 25-year-old hurler has never been able to find the plate on a consistent basis. For example, in 16.1 MLB innings in ’09 out of the ‘pen, Veal posted a walk rate of 11.02 BB/9. However, in 12.2 innings in the AFL, he has allowed just two walks. Don’t get too excited, due to the small sample size and level of competition, but keep an eye on Veal in spring training to see if his adjustments stick for the long term. If they do, keep him in mind in deep NL leagues if you need an extra starter. He could even end up as a closer in Pittsburgh, where he could stick to his fastball/curve combo.


Winter Signings: Freddy Sanchez

The San Francisco Giants re-signed second baseman Freddy Sanchez to a two-year deal late last week. The deal is worth $12 million in total, and it eliminates an $8.1 million option that the club held for 2010. The Giants organization traded for Sanchez in ’09 and gave up prized pitching prospect Tim Alderson to acquire the veteran.

Sanchez, who turns 32 in December, hit .293/.326/.416 in 111 games in 2009, and he missed time with a knee injury, which has now been surgically repaired. He’s expected to be fully healthy for spring training in 2010. After being acquired on July 29, Sanchez appeared in just 25 games with the Giants because of the injury. The new contract helps make up for the fact that the organization traded a promising pitcher (even if Alderson’s value is diminished somewhat at this point) for 25 games worth of an injured veteran second baseman.

From a fantasy perspective, Sanchez’ deal doesn’t really help his value. He will remain with a club that does not have a very potent offense, so the impact on Sanchez’ runs and RBIs will be modest at best. He produces just single-digit home runs and stolen bases, so his value is tied up solely in his batting average in most traditional fantasy leagues. That makes Sanchez a second-tiered option at second base.

Sanchez’ two-year deal likely ends Emmanuel Burriss‘ hope of playing everyday in San Francisco, unless he can supplant the disappointing Edgar Renteria at shortstop, which is unlikely. Sadly, the club probably could have gotten more offensive value – and for the league minimum – from Ryan Rohlinger, who showed pop at triple-A in ’09 with a .188 ISO. He doesn’t have a ton of experience at second base, playing mostly third base in the minors, but he’s shown a modest ability at the keystone. Depth-wise, the organization has middle-of-the-road second-base prospect Nick Noonan, a former first round pick from 2007. He is probably two to three years away from contributing at the MLB level.

Overall on the season, Sanchez posted a WAR of 2.2 and was worth about $10 million, mainly due to his defensive contributions. For similar money, the club would have been better off looking at free agents such as Orlando Hudson (2.9 WAR) or Felipe Lopez (4.6 WAR), although the latter will likely be over-priced on the market due to his above-average offensive season. A cheaper option would have been Akinori Iwamura (1.2 WAR), whose value was diminished by an injury in ’09.


Prospect Injury Report

The news was not overly great in prospect land this week, as three of the top hitters in the Arizona Fall League had to shut it down for the off-season, thanks to injuries. One of the top pitching prospects in the game had an even worse week, as he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Mike Stanton | OF | Florida Marlins
The injury to Stanton is unfortunate because he was really hitting well in the fall league after slumping for much of the second half of the year after being promoted from high-A to double-A. The good news, though, is that his back injury is not considered serious and that the club pulled him as a precaution, more than anything. However, back injuries do have a habit of lingering and/or reoccurring, especially in power hitters who take massive cuts. With any luck, though, the rest will alleviate the problem a lot quicker in the off-season than it would during the regular schedule.

After slamming 39 homers in low-A ball in 2008, Stanton hit another 28 in ’09 while splitting his time between high-A and double-A. Massive strikeout numbers – 33.1% – were at least partially to blame for his struggles in double-A. The outfield prospect will not turn 20 until November, so he has plenty of time to harness his swing. He’ll probably stick in double-A for a good portion of 2010 and likely won’t see significant playing time in the Majors until 2011. There are really no players on the Major League squad that could stand in his way, especially with Jeremy Hermida likely on his way out of town this winter (either by trade or non-tendering).

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta Braves
Like Stanton, Heyward suffered an injury (to his leg/hamstring) that is not considered serious. The left-handed hitter just turned 20 in August and he ended the year in triple-A. Heyward opened the season in high-A, where he played 49 games before moving up to double-A, where he played another 47 games. He did miss some time during the regular season with injuries, as well, although it was not related to his leg problem. A 2007 first-round draft pick out of a Georgia high school, Heyward has risen quickly through the Braves system. He’ll likely open 2010 in triple-A but could be playing regularly in Atlanta by mid-season.

With veteran outfielder Garret Anderson likely heading out of town via free agency (or retirement), the organization will field a very young outfield in ’10 with the anchor of the group being Nate McLouth, who is signed through 2011 (plus an option for 2012). Jordan Schafer, who had a disappointing rookie campaign in ’09, is another likely starter in ’10. The club also has Ryan Church, Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones, and Gregor Blanco on the depth chart.

Dayan Viciedo | 3B | Chicago White Sox
A bad throwing elbow has shut down Viciedo for the remainder of the winter. It’s unfortunate for the third baseman because he had an opportunity to really work on his game after a modest pro debut in ’09 after signing a big contract as an international free agent out of Cuba. Viciedo hit .280/.317/.391 in double-A but he showed very little patience at the plate and his rumored plus power never showed up (.111 ISO). The 20 year old (whose age is in question) was also criticized for his weight and overall drive.

Few scouts believe Viciedo will remain at third base for long, even though current MLB third baseman Gordon Beckham will likely move back to his original position at shortstop. The Cuba native probably needs one to two more seasons in the minors to smooth out his approach at the plate and hopefully discover his power stroke, which he’ll need to be an impact fantasy player.

Jarrod Parker | RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona’s No. 1 draft pick from 2007 was on the fast-track to the Majors before blowing out his elbow in mid-2009. Unfortunately, the club tried to take the rehab approach (which rarely works long-term) and Parker will now miss the entire 2011 season, rather than just half the year. Like the other players above, Parker is still quite young, as he will not turn 20 until November.

He made 16 starts at double-A in ’09 before getting hurt and he posted a 3.68 ERA (3.21 FIP) with a strikeout rate of 8.50 K/9. Parker has allowed just 10 home runs in 155 career innings. His ground-ball rate of 55% in ’09 makes his plus fastball all the more impressive. The track record with Tommy John surgery is good, so Parker should recover well, but it pushes back his MLB ETA, which now probably sits at late 2012. Be sure to keep that in mind, especially if you’re playing in a fantasy keeper league. The injury hurts Arizona, as well, since Parker was the organization’s only top-flight starting pitcher prospect.


Arizona Fall League Update: The Pitchers

The Arizona Fall League is a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ‘09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Scott Mathieson, RHP, Philadelphia
Following in the tradition of talented, but injury-prone Canadian pitchers, this right-hander is back on track after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery (’06, ’08). The top team in the National League is certainly hoping this one will take. Mathieson posted a 0.84 ERA in 32.1 innings – over three minor-league levels – this past year while working out of the bullpen (He was previously a starter). The 25 year old allowed just 17 hits and he showed reasonable control despite his layoff in ’08 and he struck out 34 batters. Mathieson made 13 appearances in double-A and posted a 3.20 FIP, while allowing a batting-average-against of just .155. So far in the AFL, he has yet to allow a run in five innings (four appearances). If his health sticks, Mathieson could be helping out in the bullpen in Philly by mid-to-late 2010.

Danny Gutierrez, RHP, Texas
Obtained late in the season from Kansas City after wearing out his welcome in the organization (health, attitude), Gutierrez has been impressive and an organization can never have enough pitching depth. The right-hander made just nine appearances in the regular season but he’s made three already in the AFL (including two starts). In 8.2 innings, Gutierrez has allowed five hits, five walks and seven Ks. In 2008 in low-A ball, the right-hander showed a solid ground-ball rate while also posting a strikeout rate of 10.40 K/9 in 90 low-A innings. He’s a sleeper worth keeping an eye on, although he likely won’t surface in Texas until 2011.

Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York (AL)
No longer a rookie, thanks to a total of 59.2 MLB innings over three seasons, Kennedy is looking to finally establish himself as a big-league pitchers. After missing a good portion of ’09 due to injury, he’s making up for lost time in the AFL. In three starts, Kennedy has allowed 10 hits and just one walk in 11.1 innings of work. He’s also struck out 13 batters, but he remains a fly-ball pitcher, which is dangerous for a hurler with average-at-best velocity on his fastball. Kennedy does not have a huge ceiling but he does have a track record of success in the minors and he has exceptional control. A trade out of New York this off-season will probably be the best thing for his career, but the club may not want to sell low on him. If he does end up in the National League, though, he could thrive.

Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York (NL)
Things have not gone so well for Mejia in the AFL. After making 10 double-A starts as a 19-year-old pitcher in ’09, the right-hander has struggled in fall ball. Mejia has a 10.50 ERA and has allowed 10 hits and seven walks in 6.0 innings (three starts). The Dominican native did recover in his third start to allow just one run in three innings and he showed improved command. He is definitely talented and there is no reason to rush him to New York so he’ll likely open 2010 in double-A and will probably surface in Majors in 2011, if all goes well. Don’t worry… he’s just a young pitcher going through growing pains.


Arizona Fall League Update: The Hitters

The Arizona Fall League is a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ‘09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore
Obtained at mid-season from the Dodgers (in exchange for George Sherrill), Bell has proven to be a smart pick-up for the Orioles. The soon-to-be 23 year old posted an ISO of .281 after the trade, during 114 at-bats at double-A. Overall, he hit .297 on the season in double-A with 20 homers in 448 at-bats. He’s shown patience at the plate with two straight seasons with a +10% walk rate. So far in the AFL, he’s posting the second-highest batting average behind Florida’s Mike Stanton. Bell may need a little bit more seasoning in triple-A before taking over for long-time third baseman Melvin Mora, who is likely to depart Baltimore this winter via free agency.

Bryan Petersen, OF, Florida
A personal favorite of mine, Petersen had a 23/23 season in ’08 but followed that up in ’09 with reduction in both home runs (seven) and steals (13 in 25 attempts) in double-A. The 23 year old remains an intriguing outfield prospect, in part because he reduced his strikeout rate from more than 20% to 15.3%. He also does a nice job of getting on-base by hitting .280-.300 and he’s not afraid to take a walk (10.4%). He’s hitting .441 through seven AFL games, but he’s been caught the one time that he tried to steal. Petersen could surface in Florida by the end of ’10, especially if he can improve his base running.

Grant Desme, OF, Oakland
It’s easy to get excited about Desme’s season because the 23-year-old outfielder hit 31 homers in 486 at-bats, including a .352 ISO rate in 227 high-A at-bats. Two things work against him, though: A) He was old for low-A and old-ish for high-A, and B) He struck out more than 30% of the time. The ’09 season was the first year that he’s been healthy since signing back in ’07. Desme is currently leading the AFL in homers with seven (three more than the next closest hitter) and he’s hitting .436 despite striking out 13 times in 39 at-bats. We probably won’t see Desme in Oakland before 2011.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta
One of the youngest hitters in the league, Freeman is struggling in the AFL. He’s hitting just .174/.296/.217 in 23 at-bats. The first baseman also stumbled at double-A in the second half of the minor league season in ’09. After scorching high-A ball earlier in the year, he hit just .248/.308/.342 in 149 at-bats. Freeman hit just .164 in August. He just turned 20 in September so there is no reason to be worried. He should be in Atlanta by mid-to-late 2011.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland
The 22-year-old Weeks is in the AFL to make up for lost time after beginning the year on the disabled list. Upon his return, he was on fire for the first two months before slumping in July; he never really hit consistently after that. His struggles continue in the AFL with a line of .182/.250/.303 through 33 at-bats. Weeks, though, is showing some patience with three walks and he’s been successful in both of his steal attempts. Weeks may debut in Oakland around the same time as Desme… 2011.


The Good and The Bad of ’09: Tampa Bay

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Tampa Bay Rays organization that finished third in the American League East division with a record of 84-78. As a team, the Rays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) on offense of 1.38. The team’s pitching WPA score was 1.62.

The Good: Carl Crawford, OF
The 28-year-old Crawford had a bounce back season in ’09, much to the joy of fantasy owners. After stealing just 25 bases in an injury-filled ’08 season, the speedy player reached a career high this past season with 60 (in 76 attempts). Crawford also set a career mark with a walk rate of 7.8% and with any luck it will continue to climb in ’10 if he is in fact maturing as a hitter. It was a bit of a disappointment that Crawford fell short of the 100 run target, but a bounce back season from B.J. Upton could help, as well as continued production from Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena.

Crawford probably won’t reach 60 steals again, but 40-50 would be a reasonable goal, as he’s surpassed the 50 mark in five of his seven full seasons. As it was, Crawford was a Top 10 hitter in most leagues in ’09 and there are not many players out there that are as diverse as Crawford: .280-.300 average, 15+ homers, 40-50 steals and 90-100 runs scored. He really only disappoints on driving in runs.

The Bad: B.J. Upton, OF
Inconsistent and frustrating. Those are two words that sum up Upton. In 2007, at the age of 22, he appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness as the former infielder posted a line of .300/.386/.508 with 24 homers and 22 steals in just 474 at-bats. Unfortunately, his OPS of .894 dropped to .784 in ’08 and down to .686 in ’09. His home run totals have fluctuated from 24 to nine to 11. The only positive side, from a fantasy perspective, is that he’s provided 40+ steals in each of the past two seasons.

Upton will no doubt enter 2010 as a mid-level draftee in most fantasy formats. You can certainly gain value from his 40+ steals but he could very well do damage in the batting average category. His overall value with the bat has diminished significantly over the past two seasons. Upton may be in need of a scenery change, and the club just might accommodate him this winter. He remains a sleeper talent. At 25 years of age, he has yet to enter his prime as a hitter so he could explode any moment. The only thing that’s clear at this point, though, is that if you’re going Upton early in your draft… go Justin. Just don’t dismiss B.J. quite yet.


The Good and The Bad of ’09: Baltimore

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles organization that finished fifth in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -10.70, which was 29th in the Major Leagues and second worst in the American League behind Kansas City (aka The Rays of ’09).

The Good: The Outfield
Depth is never, ever a bad thing. The Baltimore Orioles club had an exciting young outfield in ’09 with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold. The old man of the group, Luke Scott, was banished to DH duties for much of the season. Former top Cubs prospect Felix Pie even made some strides as a hitter, after a few disappointing seasons. Markakis is the stud of the group and he led the team with 101 RBI. Jones was on fire in April and May before fizzling at mid-season. At just 24 years of age, though, no one is overly worried, although his decreased range in the outfield is a bit of a concern. Reimold was a suprise American League Rookie of the Year candidate for much of the season before wearing down in August. His .187 ISO rate hints at impressive power potential. Like Jones, Reimold’s outfield defense was also a disappointment in ’09. Pie posted a .171 ISO rate while also playing at least average defense at all three outfield spots. Scott led the club with 25 home runs

Markakis continues to be a key fantasy outfield player, and Jones could join him in that category in ’10. Reimold’s season ended prematurely due to a torn achille’s tendon, but he’s expected to be healthy for spring training. He should be good for a .260-.280 average and 20-25 homers. Pie is definitely a sleeper to keep an eye on, but his value will also hinge on playing time. Scott can provide a boost in the home run and RBI categories for many fantasy teams and he did appear in 25 games in the outfield in ’09, so he should be eligible as an outfielder in most scenarios.

*If you’re drafting Baltimore pitchers – especially fly-ball hurlers like Chris Tillman – remember that all three starting outfielders (Markakis, Jones, and Reimold) showed below-average range in the field.

The Bad: Melvin Mora, 3B
At 37 years old, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Mora is on the downside of his career. His .260/.321/.358 line in 450 at-bats was a huge disappointment, as he was one of the worst offensive third basemen in the league in ’09. Mora posted an ISO rate of just .098 with providing just eight homers. He made above-average contact this past year (85.2%) but he just wasn’t able to get any power in his swing. His wOBA of .302 had him slumming it with the likes of fellow third basemen Emilio Bonifacio and Garrett Atkins. Defensively, Mora’s range has diminished, but he’s still a steady fielder when he gets to the ball.

Mora was worth just shy of a win in ’09, meaning he’ll enter the free agent market worth about $4 million, significantly less than the $9 million he received from the Orioles in the last year of his contract. He may very well end up having to take a minor-league contract if he wants to play in 2010. As well, his days of starting are probably over. Mora should not be drafted in any fantasy format in the upcoming season.


The Good and The Bad of ’09: Toronto

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Toronto Blue Jays club that finished fourth in the American League East division with a record of 75-87. As a team, the Blue Jays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -3.08, which was 18th in the Major Leagues and ninth in the American League.

The Good: Aaron Hill, 2B
A lot of things went wrong in Toronto in 2009, but a few players had true breakout seasons, including Adam Lind, Marco Scutaro, and Hill. The second baseman was recently named Comeback Player of the Year after missing a good portion of the 2008 season thanks to a concussion, which makes his ’09 performance all the more impressive. Not even the biggest Aaron Hill fan envisioned a 36 homer, 108 RBI season occurring at any point in his career. His ISO of .213 was fifth amongst MLB second basemen, behind Ben Zobrist (.246), Ian Kinsler (.235), Chase Utley (.226), and Dan Uggla (.216). Toronto has Hill locked up through 2014 (’12-’14 are option years) and paid him just $2.6 million for a four-win season in ’09.

Hill is not likely to repeat his 30+ homer season, but he did hit 47 doubles and 17 homers in ’07. That suggests that a 20-25 homer year would not be out of the question. If he continues to hit out of the two hole in the lineup, he’s not a lock for 100 RBI… 80 would be more realistic, especially if lead-off man Scutaro leaves town.

The Bad: Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
How many teams can compete – especially in the American League East – when three members of the starting rotation are lost to serious injuries? Not many, if any, and Toronto struggled to fill the gaps. Rookies Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski each had their moments, with Rzepczynski showing the most potential for the future. Another rookie hurler, Ricky Romero, was the rotation’s second-best pitcher behind Roy Halladay and has an outside shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the AL. Marcum is expected to be back from Tommy John surgery by spring training 2010. McGowan’s timetable is fuzzy after struggling to comeback from shoulder surgery – while also dealing with subsequent nagging injuries. Litsch’s return date from Tommy John surgery looks to be mid-to-late 2010. With a new direction in the front office perhaps Toronto can figure out why its young pitchers keep getting hurt.

From a fantasy perspective, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch have little value at this point. However, all three should be monitored closely. Marcum, in particular, has a chance of putting together a string of solid starts in 2010 if his stuff bounces back to pre-surgery form. As for the ’09 rookies, Rzepczynski is an excellent sleeper candidate, especially in AL-only formats. Romero is the type of player that might attract the sophomore curse, while Cecil probably needs a little more seasoning before he’s ready to be an impact arm at the MLB level.