Author Archive

AL Closer Report: May 15

Strong Performers

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: The club’s acquisition of Valverde is looking pretty smart right now, even though he didn’t come cheap. The right-hander is tied with Toronto’s Kevin Gregg (another ’09-’10 free agent) for the league lead in saves with 10. Valverde’s strikeouts are down, but he’s allowed just six hits in 15.2 innings.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Robot Rivera just keeps on keepin’ on. The right-hander has allowed just three hits – and no earned runs – in 11.0 innings this season. While he still the best closer in baseball, Rivera’s strikeout rate remains significantly lower than it’s been over the past three seasons.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Like Rivera, Papelbon’s strikeout numbers are down (way down, actually, by about 4.0 K/9), but he just keeps getting the job done with nine saves in as many tries. His walk rate is also way up to 5.06 BB/9. He’s gotten the results but you should definitely be worried about his rates. It might be a good time to pawn Papelbon off on someone who’s distracted by the ERA and save total.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: It’s not supposed to get easier for you when you go from the National League to the American League, but don’t tell that to Gregg. He’s been lights-out in Toronto and has struck out 21 batters in 17.0 innings, with just four walks. All hail the cutter.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch has pretty much laid to rest any concerns about the Twins’ closer situation. He’s remained reliable over the past six weeks with nine saves in 10 opportunities. Rauch is not as electric as some of the other closers (9 Ks in 14 IP) but you can’t spit on the fact he’s tied with four other closers for the second most saves in the AL. His 1.93 ERA is fourth amongst closers.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: The Royals bullpen is pretty much a mess but Soria has been a lone bright spot. The right-hander’s ERA is a little high but his xFIP (2.27) suggests it’s not all his fault. His 14.14 K/9 rate is tantalizing. He converted his only save opportunity last week.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: Bailey is making up for lost time after not having his first save opportunity until mid-April. The right-hander, though, did blow his first save of the year on May 11 in Texas. He’s done a good job of beating the sophomore jinx to this point, but his pitches haven’t been as sharp and his strikeout rate is down significantly over ’09.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano has been a nice addition to the Rays club that gave up very little to acquire him. The right-hander hasn’t struck out as many batters in ’10 as in the past, but he’s a perfect 9-for-9 in saves and has a solid ERA at 1.93. He went 2-for-2 in saves this past week and hasn’t given up a run in five appearances.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz has had a couple hiccups with two blown saves on the season, but it’s been a very successful year for the 22-year-old to this point. The right-hander has shown excellent control (1.89 BB/9) but the extreme fly-ball tendency (GB rate is just 23.5%) is a little worrisome. He’s also been used very heavily by his manager, especially lately, which is never good to see with a young, talented arm like this.

Steady Performers

Alfredo Simon | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: He hasn’t always been pretty while doing it, but the 29-year-old rookie has reeled off five saves in as many tries for the O’s club, which is desperate for some stability in the ninth inning. In 8.0 innings, Simon has walked five batters with nine Ks. His ERA is at 0.00 but he’s given up three unearned runs.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma’s early-season dominance appears to be over, although he’s still holding his own. He’s allowed runs in two of his last three appearances, and also had a blown save. He had just one save opportunity this past week and converted it.

Fallen on Hard Times

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes went 1-for-2 in save opportunities this past week and he’s been far from a sure thing this season since coming back from injury. There have been rumblings of a possible switch to Fernando Rodney, who filled in for Fuentes when he was hurt (and is 5-for-5 in saves). Fuentes is no sure thing right now.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks is another closer whose role is not exactly secure right now. The right-hander has a 6.23 ERA but his xFIP shows some light at the end of the tunnel (3.14). He also has a very good strikeout rate at 11.77 K/9. Jenks needs to show better command and get a little help with the balls in play (.478 BABIP-allowed).

New to the Job

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: It was a case of too little too late for Chris Perez, who slips into the set-up role now that Wood is back. Perez had actually settled into the role pretty well but Wood needs to build up his trade value. He hasn’t looked overly sharp since coming back and really isn’t any more of a sure thing than Perez was.


Friday Fantasy Chat

Update: Chat will start at 2pm instead of noon.

Just a quick reminder to head back here on Friday for a fantasy chat at noon eastern time. We’ll talk strategy, trades, prospects… whatever you want.


Waiver Wire: May 12

While looking through the Yahoo player listings, I came across some interesting names that are available in many leagues.

Mat Latos | RHP | San Diego (11% owned)

I have to admit that I am a little surprised to see Latos available as much as he is. The sophomore hurler has the stuff to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, he’s had success at a young age, and he plays half his games in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. The right-hander got off to a bit of a slow start to the season by allowing seven runs in his first two games, but he’s come into his own since hitting rock bottom on April 26 when he gave up seven runs in 2.2 innings. In his next start at home against Milwaukee, Latos gave up just two runs in six innings. He then pitched in Houston and dominated the lackluster club with eight shutout innings, which included nine strikeouts. You definitely want to own Latos in NL-only leagues and you certainly want to consider using him at home in mixed leagues. There will be some inconsistency in his performances due to his age, but Latos is a respectable option.

Fred Lewis | OF | Toronto (5%)

I’ve never been a huge fan of Lewis but he’s really upped his game since taking over the full-time left-field job in Toronto. The former Giant currently has a triple-slash line of .309/.347/.500 in 101 at-bats. Lewis’ strikeout rate is alarming at 29.8% but he’s hitting with some power (.191 ISO). He’s definitely not an ideal lead-off candidate (5.0 BB%) but Toronto doesn’t have a lot of options right now. If he eventually moves down in the order, it could further help his value by giving him more opportunities to drive in runs. Despite his place in the order, he does have 13 RBI in 23 games, to go along with 14 runs scored. Although he’s not a speed burner, Lewis is quick enough to steal double-digit bases. You could certainly do worse in AL-only leagues.

Ryan Hanigan | C | Cincinnati (3%)

This past off-season, it was certainly disappointing to see the Reds bring back veteran catcher Ramon Hernandez for another season. Back-up catcher Ryan Hanigan certainly deserved a shot to play every day thanks to a solid all-around skill set. The catching job has been split between the two players in 2010, which has hurt Hanigan’s fantasy value; but if you’re simply looking to fill a catcher slot on your roster with someone that won’t hurt you (and has the potential to add a little value), then Hanigan is your man. The catcher is currently hitting .380/.492/.600 in 50 at-bats and he has a career line of .280/.380/.374 in parts of four seasons. Unfortunately, the split role is serving Hernandez well, too, as he’s currently having one of his best offensive (and defensive) seasons in recent memory. If you’re not ready to pounce on Hanigan now, keep him in mind if Hernandez’ playing time diminishes at any point.

*Ownership numbers based on Yahoo Fantasy Baseball


Fantasy Chat: Friday, May 7

Just a quick reminder to come back and visit on Friday for the live Fantasy Chat. We kicked off our weekly chat last week as I teamed up with FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron to answer questions.

We had some great fantasy-related questions. And I’m happy to say I have some good advice, including recommending Jhoulys Chacin for his start against San Francisco. The rookie right-hander went on to allow one hit in seven innings for his first win of the year. I also recommended Phil Hughes against Chicago, and he won the game with seven strong innings. We also had some good discussions on the likes of Colby Lewis, Bobby Jenks, Prince Fielder, and Mike Stanton.


Deep Keepers: May 6

Let’s have a look at a few Deep Keepers.

Bill Rowell | 3B | Baltimore
It’s really never been a question of ability for this former No. 1; his struggles have reportedly been more about attitude and drive. Some times it just takes a little longer for the light bulb to click on for players with questionable makeup. Let’s be cautiously optimistic that this is the case with Rowell. The good news is that he’s still just 21. The bad news is that he’s still in high-A ball, a level he’s been at for three years now. Despite just two homers, he has very good raw power and it’s nice to see him taking some walks and hitting more than .300 – even if it’s with an inflated BABIP.

Matt Davidson | 3B | Arizona
Arizona’s 2009 draft is looking good so far… fingers crossed. With two top prospects in low-A that both play third base (Davidson along with Bobby Borchering), the club has had to get a little creative with playing time so each has seen time at DH, which will hopefully not hinder their development in the field. It definitely hasn’t hurt at the plate for Davidson. The teenager is currently hitting .365/.396/.567 (.479 BABIP) with three homers and 12 doubles in 104 at-bats. He clearly has some work to do at the plate, though, as he’s walked just once all year and has 29 Ks.

Neftali Soto | C/1B/3B | Cincinnati
I’ve been a pretty big Soto fan since ’07 when he was taken in the third round of the draft out of Puerto Rico. He’s had his ups and his downs, but there is hope now that he’s fully ready to realize his potential. Soto has bounced around the diamond a lot, and he continues to do so this season, seeing time four positions, if you count DH. The most exciting development is that he’s seeing time behind the plate (and is actually hitting .500 while playing the position, 9-for-18). Overall offensively, he’s now hitting .306/.343/.500 with five homers in 98 at-bats. He’s repeating high-A ball, but is still just 21.


Waiver Wire: May 5

Austin Kearns | OF | Cleveland (9% owned)
Remember the good ol’ days when Kearns was considered good? Well, he’s not quite ready to give up the ghost. After two very lackluster years in Washington, Kearns has found his stroke in Cleveland. He’s currently hitting .333/.405/.561 in 18 games. The .435 BABIP and 27.3 K% lets us know that he’s not going to keep the average above .300 for the year, but there is still hope in the power category. Kearns currently has a .227 ISO rate and he hasn’t surpassed .200 over a full season since ’06 when he slugged 24 homers.

Juan Pierre | OF | Chicago AL (30%)
It’s not often that you’ll find the Major League steals leader available in 70% of leagues at the end of April. Unfortunately, speed is his only offering right now. Have faith, though. Pierre isn’t a great all-around ball player, but he has a career .299 batting average, so he’s going to improve over the .218 that he’s currently hitting. Proven speedsters like Pierre don’t post a BABIP of .227 forever and his 4% strikeout rate shows that he’s putting a lot of balls into play. Quite a few fantasy managers could use his extra 14 steals right about now; just make sure you can afford the hit in batting average.

Nate Schierholtz | OF | San Francisco (2%)
Schierholtz is finally getting a chance to play in San Francisco. The 26-year-old outfielder is currently hitting .350/.426/.517 in 69 at-bats. He’s owned in just 2% of leagues and he’d be in the Top 10 in batting average if he had enough at-bats to qualify. On the downside, he’s being platooned against left-handers (which is actually quite possibly a blessing) and he has yet to hit a homer this year. Have faith, though, the young player has excellent raw power so the homers are going to come. Grab him before he goes on a power run and gains more attention, especially in NL-only leagues.

Jose Contreras | RP | Philadelphia (6%)
With the recent news that Ryan Madson is going to be gone for a while, Contreras moves up in the pecking order for save opportunities. With Brad Lidge being as volatile as a pit bull in a washing machine, Contreras could see some end-game chances in the near future. In nine games, the veteran Cuban has a 0.33 xFIP, as well as a 16.43 K.9 rate and he has yet to walk a batter. Wow. Small sample size be damned. That’s still impressive.

*Ownership numbers based on Yahoo Fantasy Baseball


NL Closer Report: April 30

There are definitely some National League closers on the hot-seat this week.

Strong Performers

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: When you look back to his 7.91 BB/9 rate in ’09, it’s hard to believe that Marmol is arguably the most dominating late-game reliever in the Majors right now. He has a 16.03 K9 rate and a 0.84 ERA (1.97 xFIP). He’s also allowed just six hits in 10.2 innings of work. He still has just three saves, though, and he’s had one opportunity since April 14 (which he blew). He’s allowed hits in just four games and three of his six hits came in one game (His only blown save). The saves will come.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Playing for a team that doesn’t score a lot of runs can really pay off for a closer. Capps leads the Majors with 10 saves and he currently has a 0.68 ERA. He has been a little lucky, though, with a 4.25 xFIP and his control has not been the sharpest at 4.05 BB/9. He made four appearances this past week without allowing a run and he went 3-for-3 in saves.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: The Mets club has really turned its season around, but Rodriguez is still struggling in the overall saves department with just three. The goods is that his ERA is just 0.84 (4.02 xFIP, though) and he’s striking out a lot of batters. The saves will come and he’s had all three of his saves in the past eight days.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez’ ERA currently sits at zero and his strikeout rate is a career high 9.64 K/9. It remains to be seen if it will remain at that level over the course of the season, but his owners will take it right now, one way or the other. Nunez has allowed just one hit on the season (April 11) but he’s lacked save opportunities; he converted his only opp this past week.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin is a perfect example of the good things that can happen when you throw strikes. His strikeout rate is a baffling 2.70 K/9 but he has seven saves in as many tries. He was 2-for-2 over the past seven days. He hasn’t allowed a run since April 16.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero has allowed a lot of base runners – 12 hits, seven walks in 12.0 innings – but he’s’ second in the NL in saves with eight. Although he’s struggled with his control, the Reds’ closer has a solid strikeout rate at 9.49 K/9. Over the past week he’s been worked hard (surprise) and was 2-for-2 in save opportunities.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton is currently bringing the pain to National League hitters: He’s striking them out (13.50 K/9), he’s not issuing walks (1.13 BB/9), and he’s not allowing runs (0.00 ERA). Although he has yet to allow a runner to cross home plate, Broxton did blow a save this week and he gave up three hits in two appearances.

Steady Performers

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom has been surprisingly effective so far this season. He’s a perfect 6-for-6 in save opportunities and he hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past four outings, including three during the last week. Unfortunately, his control has slipped recently and he’s walked three batters in his last two appearances, so monitor him closely for regression.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: On the year, Bell has allowed 10 hits in 9.1 innings but he’s 6-for-7 in save opportunities. He’s also striking out batters at a clip of 13.00 K/9. He appeared in three games this week (April 26-28) and went 2-for-2 in saves. He allowed three hits but struck out six.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: It’s been a frustrating year for Wilson owners. The closer has a 2.25 ERA, a strikeout rate of 10.13 K/9 and a ground-ball rate of 70%, but he has just four saves in five tries. The rate of save opportunities picked up this past week and he went 2-for-3. He’s given up runs in just one outing all season (April 28).

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: One save. That’s all Wagner has managed this season despite a respectable ERA at 2.57 and a strikeout rate of 16.71 K/9. Overall, the veteran has had just two save opportunities all year and his last one came on April 9. Talk about bad luck… but it might be a good time to try and grab him in a trade.

Franklin Morales | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: At first glance, the ERA is OK at 3.72 but it gets much worse if you look at the xFIP of 5.99. Morales also has a strikeout rate of just 5.59 and he’s allowed nine hits in 9.2 innings. The young right-hander appeared in two games this past week but did not have a save opportunity.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: The 9.00 ERA is not pretty but the xFIP is just 3.28 and Qualls has produced a large number of strikeouts (10.00 K/9). He gave up a run in his last outing, but he was a perfect 3-for-3 in saves this past week. Perhaps he’s turning things around?

Fallen on Hard Times

Ryan Madson | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: With Brad Lidge close to activation, Madson’s save opportunities are about to diminish, although the club has said that it will ease the veteran back into the job. It’s about time to cut bait on Madson (at least move him to the bench), at least for now. It’s not a great loss, as he was just 4-for-6 in save opportunities with a 7.00 ERA (but 2.79 xFIP).

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Despite a strikeout rate of 11.57 K/9 on the season, it’s been a rough month for Dotel, who has a 10.61 ERA. This past week has been particularly ugly and he allowed nine runs (seven earned) over a three game stretch between April 22 and 28. Eno recently looked at the situation with a little more depth.

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Like Dotel, Hoffman has had a rough year, and the past week hasn’t been a picnic, either. His ERA currently sits at 13.00 and he’s allowed 15 hits in 9.0 innings or work. He got into three games in the last seven days and allowed six runs while blowing both of his save opportunities. Again, Eno looked more in-depth at the Milwaukee situation.


AL Closer Report: April 30

After a few weeks of steady movement, the closer roles in the American League are holding steady.

Strong Performers

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma is still ‘The Man’ in terms of overall save total with eight. He blew his first save of the year this past week, but the right-hander was successful in two other attempts. All his runs allowed on the season have come in the one game against the White Sox. Everyone has an off-day now and then; Aardsma is still a top AL – and mixed league – closer option.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Gregg finally allowed his first walk of the season and it came at a really bad time (it led to a Toronto loss). He was, though, a perfect 2-for-2 in save opportunities over a four-game stretch this past week. He struck out seven batters in 4.2 innings of work. The cutter continues to do wonders for him.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: No signs of cracks in the foundation just yet. Rauch has seven saves in nine appearances on the year. This past week, he made two appearances and went 1-for-2 in saves. That blown save was his first of the season and he ended up recording the win.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria appeared in three games this week but he had just one save opportunity, which he converted. In 3.2 innings, he struck out six batters. Soria is a strong closer option, but Kansas City needs to get the lead to him.

Steady Performers

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: It was a quiet week for Rivera. He appeared in just one game and it wasn’t even a save opportunity. The Yankees club is going to keep on winning so the save opportunities will come. Rivera has already shown this season that he’s still not slowing down.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: On the flip side of Rivera we have Papelbon. The Red Sox closer was a busy man this week with four saves in as many appearances. The right-hander had a bit of a hiccup against the Orioles (3 H, 1 R), but he still got the job done. Overall, the strikeout rate remains low and the walk rate is high; the .195 BABIP-against is really helping him right now, so be wary of his recent success.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The save opportunity can be an elusive beast and Bailey has yet to tame it this season. Despite not allowing a run in eight appearances so far this season, the sophomore closer has just two saves in as many opportunities. He came out throwing strikes this past week; of his 25 pitches thrown, 19 were strikes (76%).

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: The second-year closer has seen a huge drop in his strikeout rate so far this season (7.88 compared to 12.13 K/9 in ’09) but he’s still a perfect 5-for-5 in saves. He was a perfect 1-for-1 this week in two appearances. With the Rays club playing well, Soriano should be provided plenty of opportunities.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: First the good news: Valverde has seven saves and a 0.82 ERA. Now the bad news: His BABIP-allowed is .133, his FIP is 4.74, and his strikeout rate is 4.09 K/9. If you want to take a positive spin to the numbers, then you’d point out that Valverde is succeeding despite modest numbers. The pessimist will simply say that’s his been lucky and that his luck is bound to change. This past week, Valverde appeared in four games and saved two in as many attempts. Although his strikeout rate is down, the Tigers closer has had a lot of success with his splitter and his ground-ball rate is currently 73.3%, which bodes well for his success (although it doesn’t help his fantasy owners in the K-department).

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks’ strikeout rate of 14.00 K/9 is no doubt welcomed by his owners. The 6.00 BB/9 rate, though, is not so nice. Overall, Jenks has four saves on the year and has yet to blow a save. This past week, he was 1-for-1 in opportunities and appeared in three games. He was roughed up in his non-save appearances with four runs allowed in 2.0 innings.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes was solid this past week. He saved two games in as many tries and did not allow a run in three appearances. He even struck out four batters in three innings.

Fallen on Hard Times

Jim Johnson | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: The 6.23 ERA jumps out at you, but his xFIP is 3.21. Johnson has also done a nice job of limiting the walks (2.08 BB/9) and the homers (none). He appeared in three games this past week and did not have a save opportunity. Johnson was also roughed up by Boston for two runs in 2.0 innings on April 25. The hard-throwing Alfredo Simon was recently recalled and recorded a save in his first game. He could cut into Johnson’s save opportunities.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz was human this past week and his ERA jumped to 5.91, although his xFIP is much better at 3.62. The youngster was used heavily and appeared in four games despite having just two save opportunities (He went 1-for-2). During that span of games, Feliz allowed 10 hits and six runs in 4.0 innings.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Well, the xFIP is ugly at 6.95 and the walk rate is atrocious at 8.10. His K/BB rate is 0.50. It’s kind of a miracle that Perez is 4-for-5 in save opportunities. The Indians might have to look at another option soon unless Perez can throw more strikes.


Fantasy Chat Friday

I’m pleased to announce that starting this Friday, April 30, live fantasy chats will become a regular occurrence at RotoGraphs. The chats will run for at least an hour each Friday at noon eastern. The RotoGraph writers (and maybe even a few lurkers from FanGraphs) will be around to answer any fantasy baseball related questions that might be weighing heavily on your minds. What a way to end the work week!

A Friendly Reminder: If you’re asking a trade-related question, please mention what type of league you’re playing in.


Waiver Wire: April 28

Looking around the free agent lists, I was surprised to see some names available at this point in the fantasy season.

Brett Gardner | OF | Yankees: Gardner is currently owned in just 39% of Yahoo leagues, which is surprising. Yankees players can sometimes be overrated in fantasy, but the sophomore is getting a bit of the cold shoulder. Playing regularly in the outfield for New York, the only thing he really hasn’t done is hit for power. Gardner is currently hitting .296/.387/.352 with nine steals in 10 tries. His stolen base total ranks him second in the Major Leagues behind just Andrew McCutchen of Pittsburgh (95% owned), and tied with Michael Bourn of Houston (84%), and Juan Pierre of Chicago AL (39%). Gardner is a great source of steals and runs, so he should be on your fantasy teams if you’re hurting in those areas.

Andruw Jones | OF | White Sox: Jones is currently owned in just 35% of leagues despite the fact that he’s tied for third in the Majors in homers with six. Yes, he’s posted some pretty bad numbers in the past, but Jones has lost a noticeable amount of weight and his bat is much quicker. He’s hit his six homers in fewer plate appearances than any of the other 14 home runs leaders in the Majors. He’s even added three steals, and is hitting a respectable .275. Jones is a low-risk option for home runs, especially given his history of power numbers.

Paul Konerko | 1B | White Sox: We normally focus on players with lower ownership numbers than 63%, but I find it odd that the MLB leader in homers doesn’t have a higher percentage. Konerko is the only player in the Majors with eight homers, he’s hitting .288 (no small feat in Chicago) and he’s driven in 14 runs for a struggling offense. He hasn’t been an elite slugger for a couple years now, but he’s still just 34 years old, so there is probably some gas left in the tank. Konerko last hit 30+ homers in 2007 but he still managed 28 last season. If he’s around in your league and you don’t have a ton of offense already at 1B and/or DH, snap him up and enjoy his solid performance.