Over the next week, I am going to run a series of “Position Battles” articles, examining some of the more intriguing fights for everyday jobs that will be taking place during spring training. So far, here’s the list:

-Cleveland’s rotation
-Washington’s OF/1B glut
-Yankees’ CF job
-Minnesota’s OF
-Cubs’ 5th starter
-Mets’ fifth starter
-White Sox’ 2B

If there are any other position battles that you would like me to take a look at, please feel free to suggest them in the comments section.

Today, we’re going to kick things off with the back of the Cleveland Indians’ rotation. Despite the immaculate campaign turned in by lefty Cliff Lee (2.83 FIP, 5/1 K/BB ratio), the Tribe’s starting corps was a middle-of-the-pack outlet in 2008. Cleveland’s starters ranked 8th in the American League in team FIP (4.30), as ’07 ace Fausto Carmona dealt with injuries and a subsequent loss of command, and dependable mid-rotation cog Jake Westbrook fell victim to Tommy John surgery.

The Indians posted 84 third-order wins in ’08 in an AL Central Division where the highest total was Chicago’s 88. With no team in the Central appearing to have a clear upper hand, Cleveland might just be the favorites to snag a division title at this point: Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system projects an 83-79 season for the club, without another AL Central team reaching the .500 mark. If the Tribe are going to get back to October baseball, they will need to conjure up a suitable back of the rotation from a list that offers quantity, but varying quality.

As things currently stand, Lee and Carmona are the only starters who can be marked down in permanent ink. The third man, according to Cleveland’s official depth chart, is none other the Carl Pavano (assuming he hasn’t been injured since the end of this sentence). The much-maligned former Yankee inked a one-year, $1.5 million deal this winter, with over $5M in possible incentives. The last time Pavano threw 100 innings (heck, the last time he threw more than 34 innings) was 2005. The 33 year-old made 7 starts for the Bombers last year, posting a 5.37 FIP. Pavano has never been a high-strikeout hurler (career 5.75 K/9), but he fanned less than four batters per nine innings in 2008. His fastball velocity, about 90 MPH in prior years, was down to 88 MPH. Even if Pavano is physically sound (no sure bet, obviously), you’ll probably want to look elsewhere for rotation help.

Former Cardinals golden boy Anthony Reyes is currently penciled into the fourth slot. The former USC product, acquired last summer for reliever Luis Perdomo, has a sustained track record of success in the minors but has thus far failed to stay out of the trainer’s room. Reyes punched out 9.46 batters per nine innings in the minors, walking a solid 2.15 per nine as well. The problems for Reyes seem to be two-fold: one, he seemingly prefers to work up in the zone with his 90 MPH heater, which can lead to some souvenirs being deposited in the bleachers (1.38 HR/9 in his major league career). There’s no way to know for sure, but some have suggested that Reyes’ falling out with St. Louis’ pitching coach Dave Duncan stemmed from Duncan’s preference for a two-seamer while Reyes preferred to continue using the four-seamer.

The flat-billed, high-socked 27 year-old also has a delivery that some believe is detrimental to his long-term health. Via Driveline Mechanics, here’s Kyle Boddy’s take on Reyes’ mechanics:

“As you can plainly see (I slowed it down to make sure), Reyes still gets his elbow way up there in hyperabduction and takes his elbow well behind the acromial line in forced horizontal shoulder abduction. What I didn’t notice before is a bad grab (tension in the wrist) and an absolutely terrible followthrough – look how he slams the brakes on his arm after he releases it!”

Reyes’ delivery puts an undue amount of stress on his shoulder and elbow. Boddy then goes on to list the litany of injuries that Reyes has endured:

“2004: Missed two months to shoulder tendinitis.
2005: Missed two weeks to a sprained acromioclavicular (AC) joint.
Mid-2008: Missed two weeks with an elbow injury.
Late 2008: Missed the rest of the regular season with an elbow injury. “

Reyes is someone to keep an eye on, but his homer-happy tendencies and lengthy injury history may preclude him from ever making good on the promise he showed as a Cardinals farm hand.

Left-hander Aaron Laffey currently fills the fifth spot for the Tribe. 24 in April, Laffey blows no one away with his stuff: the 2003 16th-rounder threw his fastball at an average velocity of 86.6 MPH in 2008, supplementing the modest sinker with a high-70’s slider and low-80’s changeup. In 25 careers starts between the ’07 and ’08 seasons, Laffey has posted a 4.48 FIP, relying on good control (2.71 BB/9) and groundball tendencies (54.9 GB%) to counteract few missed bats (4.28 K/9).

Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix put Laffey under the microscope and concluded that the 6-0, 185 pounder could be an adequate solution in the back of a fantasy rotation. A guy who puts the ball in play as often as Laffey is no sure thing, but his control/groundball combo makes the low K rate a little easier to swallow. Keep an eye on Cleveland’s infield situation: a worm-killer like Laffey would benefit most if new Indian Mark DeRosa were installed at second, shifting plus defender Asdrubal Cabrera to shortstop and Jhonny Peralta to third.

A southpaw plucked out of UCLA in 1st round of the 2006 draft, David Huff might possess the most long-term potential of Cleveland’s plethora of back-rotation candidates. Huff is fresh off a 2008 season in which he tore through AA and AAA, and he’s knocking on the door step of the big leagues. With Akron (AA), the 6-2 lefty punched out 62 batters in 65.2 innings (8.5 K/9), also showcasing sharp control with 1.92 BB/9. Bumped up to Buffalo, Huff owned the International League, striking out 9.04 hitters per nine innings with 1.67 BB/9. The former Bruin doesn’t quite have the knock-out scouting reports to go with those superb numbers, but his stuff is quite solid: per Baseball America, Huff supplements an 87-92 MPH fastball with a plus changeup, an improved slider and the occasional curveball.

Jeremy Sowers might be the most familiar name on this list, though his chances of cracking the starting rotation appear quite grim. The finesse lefty has posted a FIP in excess of five in the big leagues in ’07 and ’08, and even his 2006 showing that got people talking (3.57 ERA) produced just a 4.57 FIP. Sowers is basically Aaron Laffey without the groundballs. At best, he’s an adequate fifth starter in the majors.

Like Sowers (Vanderbilt), Scott Lewis is a southpaw out of a major college program (Ohio State). Despite rather modest stuff (mid-80’s fastball, mid-70’s slider, low-70’s curve, high-70’s change), Lewis has posted some wacky minor league stats. The former Buckeye struck out about 7.5 batters per nine innings between AA and AAA last season, walking scarcely a batter per nine to boot. Before you get too excited, do keep in mind the aforementioned scouting reports, his health history (Tommy John surgery, biceps tendinitis) and Lewis’ flyball tendencies. I took a gander at Lewis earlier this offseason:

“So, what can we expect of Lewis in 2009 and beyond? His minor league track record is quite good, but we are also talking about a guy who throws 87 MPH on a good day, with flyball tendencies to boot. Will hitters continue to flail at Lewis’ changeup, or will they learn to lay off of it and make him use his mild heater? Will the home run bug bite him at the highest level of competition? Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system offered an eclectic mix of possible outcomes for Lewis’ career before last season. Among Lewis’ most comparable players were Ted Lilly and Randy Wolf on the positive side, and Casey Fossum on the opposite end of the spectrum. It’s probably best to take a wait-and-see approach with Lewis in 2009. Finesse, flyball lefties generally don’t fare well in the DH league.”

Zach Jackson, yet another lefty, is an ostensible candidate for a starting job. However, you probably want to avoid this one: an extra chip tossed in to the CC Sabathia deal, Jackson has posted a FIP around 4.50 over the past few years in AAA, with few K’s and just average control.

Some of you are probably wondering, “where’s Adam Miller?” For pragmatic reasons, I decided to not include him. Everyone knows the drill with Miller by now: blistering, mid-90’s heat, a devastating slider and a maddening propensity to get hurt: elbow and finger maladies limited Miller to 65.1 innings in 2007 and just 28.2 frames in 2008. Cleveland seems intent on keeping the 24 year-old in the bullpen as a means of self-preservation. If healthy, Miller could become dominant in a late-inning role.

Overall, the Indians have a bunch of contenders for those last three spots, though just how many quality options the club possesses remains to be seen. While a few of these guys might end up in the bullpen or AAA for the time being, it’s possible that most will see significant action, given the injury concerns with Pavano and Reyes. If Cleveland is to return to the postseason in a wide-open division, they’ll need a few of these guys to step up and provide value behind Lee and Carmona.

With Javier Vazquez now residing in Atlanta and Jose Contreras (achilles) likely on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, the Chicago White Sox entered the winter looking to fill two spots in the club’s rotation. One of those openings will at least temporarily be occupied by oft-injured Bartolo Colon, but the competition for the fifth slot remains wide open. The candidates for the job: Clayton Richard (check out Richard’s piece here), Jeffrey Marquez, Lance Broadway and Aaron Poreda.

My original plan was to profile each player in an individual post, but rather than boring the reader with lengthy accounts of Marquez and Broadway, I’d like to present the following 2009 forecasts for the two:

Jeffrey Marquez, RHP
Age: 24
CHONE: 92 IP, 6.33 FIP, 4.3 K/9, 3.28 BB/9
PECOTA: not listed on team depth chart

Lance Broadway, RHP
Age: 25
CHONE: 143 IP, 5.80 FIP, 5.29 K/9, 3.71 BB/9
PECOTA: 40 IP, 6.22 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 3.82 BB/9

Suffice it to say, you’re more than likely going to want to avoid both of these fellows. Neither Marquez (5.36 FIP at AAA) nor Broadway (4.89) offer much in terms of upside. Fantasy owners might consider the previously profiled Richard, but most are probably rooting for today’s subject: Aaron Poreda.

While the club has since had a change in philosophy, the South Siders were extremely conservative in the amateur draft during the middle part of the decade. 2005 first-rounder Broadway, as previously mentioned, does not project well into the majors and was ranked as just the 28th-best White Sox prospect by Baseball America. However, Broadway’s brand of mediocrity surpasses the level of production received from right-hander Kyle McCulloch, Chicago’s 2006 first-rounder out of Texas. Unranked by BA, McCulloch struck out less than five batters per nine in AA last season, walking nearly three and a half per nine as well.

Dissatisfied by minimal returns from “safe” college picks the previous two years, the White Sox attempted to hit a home run in 2007 by selecting Poreda. A towering 6-6, 240 pound southpaw out of San Francisco, Poreda was considered less refined than many college products. He pumped easy gas, hitting the upper-90’s with his heater, but the quality of his secondary pitches lagged behind. Here’s BA’s scouting report on Poreda from June 2007:

“Poreda works off the fastball almost as much as UC Riverside’s James Simmons (No. 47), and like Simmons, it’s his only above-average pitch. While his fastball was flat and 89-90 mph in his 2007 opener, he has been consistently in the low 90s since then, touching 96-97 and regularly hitting 94. He throws plenty of strikes (though he lacks true command), and with his 6-foot-6, 240-pound frame, he should prove durable. He doesn’t pitch as downhill as he should at his size, in part because of his low three-quarters arm slot. Poreda’s arm action and lower slot make his breaking ball a fringe-average pitch at best, though it has improved. He has the makings of a changeup but hasn’t thrown it much, sticking to his fastball.”

Poreda began his professional career in Rookie Ball, tossing 46.1 frames for the Great Falls White Sox of the Pioneer League. His easy velocity was no match for that level of competition, as Poreda fanned 48 and walked 10 while posting a 2.06 FIP. Following his impressive debut, the plus-sized lefty was dubbed Chicago’s third-best farm talent. BA noted that while “he’s raw for a college pitcher”, he “could wind up as a bigger version of Billy Wagner coming out of the bullpen.”

White Sox brass must have been plenty impressed with Poreda, as they bumped him up to Winston-Salem of the High-A Carolina League to begin the 2008 season. He performed decently there by limiting the free passes (2.21 BB/9), but his strikeout rate (46 K in 73.1 IP, or 5.65 K/9) was rather low for a guy noted as possessing a high-octane fastball. Poreda’s K rate did rebound upon a promotion to the AA Southern League, as he whiffed 72 batters in 87.2 innings (7.39 K/9) while allowing a 2.26 BB/9. Following the season, BA once again named Poreda as the third-best Pale Hose Prospect (though in a much-improved system).

Aaron Poreda has the highest upside of Chicago’s fifth starter candidates, and it’s not particularly close. However, one has to wonder if the big southpaw is ready for a major league assignment at the point. With scarcely 200 minor league inning under his belt, Poreda has not missed quite as many bats as his power arsenal would suggest, and his slider and changeup largely remain works in progress. Both CHONE (6.09 FIP) and PECOTA (5.74 ERA) suggest that Poreda could be in for a rude introduction if he is shoved up into the fifth slot or placed in the bullpen. The 22 year-old southpaw looks like a fine long-term prospect, but the most reasonable scenario entails the ChiSox deploying Poreda to AAA in order to give him the necessary time to round out his repertoire.

Poreda should certainly be on fantasy radars, but this might be one of those rare cases where owners should root against the top prospect making the club out of spring training. Poreda still has work to do.

With Javier Vazquez now residing in Atlanta and Jose Contreras (achilles) likely on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, the Chicago White Sox entered the winter looking to fill two spots in the club’s rotation. One of those openings will at least temporarily be occupied by oft-injured Bartolo Colon, but the competition for the fifth slot remains wide open. Over the next few days, I am going to take a look at the candidates for the job: Clayton Richard, Jeffrey Marquez, Lance Broadway and Aaron Poreda.

Clayton Richard, LHP
Age: 25
2009 CHONE Projection: 140 IP, 4.86 FIP, 4.95 K/9, 2.96 BB/9
2009 PECOTA Projection: 110 IP, 6.13 ERA, 4.33 K/9, 3.27 BB/9

An 8th-round pick out of Michigan in the 2005 amateur draft, Richard was a relative unknown entering the 2008 season. The 6-5, 240 pounder was coming off of a fairly mundane 2007 campaign at High-A Winston-Salem, striking out just 5.52 batters per nine innings and allowing 3.29 BB/9 in 161.1 IP. His FIP was a shrug-inducing 4.05, though he did at least keep the ball in the dirt with a 57.3 GB%. That performance did not earn Richard a spot in Baseball America’s top 30 White Sox prospects, as BA likely viewed him as an aged college prospect who merely held his head above water in A-Ball.

In 2008, however, Richard passed through AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte on his way to the majors. In 83.2 frames at Birmingham, Richard compiled a 2.96 FIP, with 5.7 K’s per nine, an improved walk rate (1.72 BB/9) and just 0.22 HR/9 surrendered. Bumped up to Charlotte, the southpaw posted rates of 6.75 K/9 and 0.82 BB/9 in 44 innings, good for a 2.93 FIP.

Richard made his debut with the South Siders in late July, and while his ERA (6.04) looks pretty grisly, the underlying numbers weren’t too shabby. In 47.2 IP, Richard posted a 4.10 FIP, punching out 5.48 batters per nine innings and walking 2.45 per nine. The former Wolverine used his 90 MPH sinker, 80 MPH slider and 81 MPH changeup to burn some worms, posting a 49.7 GB%. For his work, Richard was dubbed by BA as the 5th-best Pale Hose Prospect this offseason.

It’s difficult to get too awfully excited about a hurler like Richard, who misses few bats but attempts to off-set that tendency with above-average control and groundball tendencies. There are many pitchers of this ilk floating around major league baseball, some of whom will become successful starters while others will never quite translate their minor league success to the highest level.

Owners in most leagues will probably want to avoid drafting Richard, as his upside is fairly modest. CHONE’s projection suggests that Richard will at least hold his head above water in ’09, while PECOTA’s translation has “KEEP AWAY” written in bold, red ink. It remains to be seen whether the lefty’s sinker and savvy will be enough to stave off big league hitters every fifth day, but Richard has at least improved his standing in the organization enough to possibly get the chance.

Our “Prospects in Proper Context” series reaches its end today, as we uncover the most promising bats to grace the AAA Pacific Coast League in 2008. As was the case with the International League, the PCL features an abundance of grizzled minor league veterans at the pinnacle of the wOBA scale: those in the top 10 include Russell Branyan, Micah Hoffpauir, Nelson Cruz, Paul McAnulty, Jason Dubois and Andy Green. However, there was still quite the collection of promising (if imperfect) bats to choose from. Players such as Jeff Clement, Ian Stewart, Sean Rodriguez, Wladimir Balentien and Bryan Anderson just missed the top five.

Here are links to the other seven parts of our prospects series:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League
Eastern League

Triple-A
International League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 150 AB cut-off was used for the list.)

AAA Pacific Coast League offensive levels: Singles (0.89), Doubles (1.08), Triples (1.02), Home Runs (1.12)

1. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals: .335 wOBA (.251/.346/.396)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Memphis): Runs (0.96), Hits (0.97), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.00)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .261/.355/.406
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .216/.290/.321

You might be asking yourself, “how does a guy with those numbers lead off this list?” While Rasmus’ overall line looks tepid, he battled groin and knee injuries (the latter of which prematurely ended his season in July) and he was starting to hit like his old self before going down with the sprained knee (.333/.441/.535 in 99 June AB). A member of the absurdly gifted 2005 outfield draft class, Rasmus had a pristine track record prior to ’08 and has authored a career .277/.366/.485 line. The 6-2, 185 pound lefty is one of the more well-rounded prospects that you’re going to find, as he works the count (career 13 BB%), can sting the ball (.208 ISO), swipes some bags (career 81% success rate, including 15/18 in 2008) and plays a plus center field.

Earlier this offseason, prospect guru Marc Hulet examined Rasmus’ chances of breaking into St. Louis’ crowded outfield and concluded the following:

“Some eyes were raised when Rasmus declined the opportunity to play winter ball to help make up for lost time and perhaps accelerate his big-league timetable. Regardless, he could very well surface in St. Louis by mid-season if he gets off to a respectable start to the 2009 season. Rasmus may initially struggle to hit for average, but he should be productive and Fantasy Baseball owners should track his progress closely.”

Don’t let Rasmus’ 2008 numbers sway you too much: his tools-laden game and past performance suggest this was just a tiny blip for a player who could end up being a championship-caliber performer.

2. Chase Headley, Padres: .401 wOBA (.305/.383/.556)
Age: 24
Position: LF/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Portland): R (0.93), H (0.94), 2B (0.97), HR (1.05)
PAL: .324/.400/.575
MLE: .269/.329/.455

The Padres are rather short on premium young talent, but Headley represents the club’s best chance of cultivating a home-grown stud. The former Tennessee Volunteer has really put a charge into the ball over the past two years: after slugging .426 in 2005 and .434 in 2006, Headley posted a .580 mark at AA San Antonio in 2007 and a slugged at a .556 clip at Portland this past season. The switch-hitter works the count well (10.7 BB% with Portland), though fairly low contact rates are at least somewhat troubling (he whiffed 25.1% of the time in AAA, 26.3% in AA in ’07). Headley saw considerable playing time for the Padres last summer, batting a respectable .269/.337/.420 in 368 PA (he did K 31.4% of the time, however).

Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix took a look at Headley’s track record and poked a few holes in it, noting Headley’s relatively advanced age, contact issues and the power-sapping environs of Petco Park. The odds of Headley becoming a star probably aren’t great, but he’s pretty much assured of everyday playing time in 2009 and has enough secondary skills to hold his own.

3. Brandon Wood, Angels: .405 wOBA (.296/.375/.595)
Age: 23 (24 in March)
Position: SS/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Salt Lake): R (1.06), H (1.04), 2B (0.96), HR (1.07)
PAL: .284/.364/.577
MLE: .235/.299/.446

It feels as though Wood has been adorning prospects list forever, doesn’t it? The soon-to-be 24 year-old has a long history of hitting for prodigious power, though a few Angles affiliates (High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Salt Lake in particular) reside in very favorable offensive leagues. The 6-3, 185 pounder appears stuck in a holding pattern right now: he has little left to prove at AAA, but just where he resides on the diamond long-term remains to be seen.

The Angles will likely continue to struggle in the run-scoring department, particularly in a post-Teixeira world (Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs LAA for 778 runs scored in 2009, 9th in the AL), so Wood’s pop could come in handy. Incumbent shortstop Erick Aybar has been rather feeble in the batter’s box to this point (career .286 wOBA). However, his glove work is well-regarded, whereas Wood is considered merely functional at the position. In the long haul, the most probable scenario entails Wood being installed at the hot corner, with Chone Figgins returning to a super-utility role.

Like Headley, Wood’s biggest drawback is his frequent propensity to swing and miss. Over the past two years in AAA, the 2003 first-rounder has punched out about 27% of the time. In 157 PA for the Halos last year, Wood whiffed 28.7% with a 2.6 BB%. Strikeouts certainly don’t preclude a player from being highly productive, but such a high rate does raise questions about Wood’s ability to handle breaking stuff at the highest level. Overall, Wood is a tough player to gauge: he could be a highly valuable commodity if he sticks at short and does enough in the walks and power department to offset a low batting average, an average to above-average player at third or a flameout who doesn’t adjust to big-league pitching.

4. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: .329 wOBA (.283/.344/.416)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: CF/LF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Sacramento): R (0.94), H (0.96), 2B (0.97), HR (0.89)
PAL: .297/.356/.430
MLE: .250/.298/.341

The twice-traded Gonzalez proved that he could cover the gaps in Oakland last season (17.5 UZR/150), and the Venezuelan lefty has shown solid power during the course of his minor league career (.286/.340/.473). CarGo has youth and tools on his side, but he has quite a bit of work to do in terms of honing his control of the strike zone. In 316 PA with Oakland, Gonzalez walked just 4.1% of the time and chased 32.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He was never particularly patient in the minors, either, with a career 7.8 BB%. I took a look at Gonzalez earlier this offseason following his trade to Colorado and came to the following conclusion:

“Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.”

5. Andy LaRoche, Pirates: .402 wOBA (.293/.452/.439)
Age: 25 (24 during ’08 season)
Position: 3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Las Vegas): R (1.09), H (1.06), 2B (1.08), HR (1.08)
PAL: .276/.440/.423
MLE: .218/.349/.323

LaRoche is something of a forgotten man on the prospect landscape, as an execrable beginning to his major league career (.255 wOBA in 367 PA) has left a sour taste in the mouths of many. However, the career .294/.380/.517 minor league hitter has an interesting blend of skills and could prove to be a solid offensive cog for Pittsburgh. Adam’s brother combines gap power with a highly discerning eye (career 13.5 BB% in the minors) and a high-contact approach (16.3 K%). Yes, Andy’s 2008 big league numbers are stomach-churning, but his BABIP was an incredibly low .177. I examined LaRoche earlier this offseason, stressing that a small sample of at-bats should not be grounds for writing off a player with a long, sustained record of success:

“While Andy LaRoche’s major league stats make fantasy owners want to avert their eyes, it is too early to write him off. That scary big league line is at least partially the result of terrible luck on balls put in play, and his minor league dossier reflects a player possessing excellent strike-zone control and doubles power. If Andy gets back to using the whole field, he could be a bargain. Those willing to look past a small sample of at-bats in the majors could be rewarded with a nifty under-the-radar player at the hot corner.”

The Pittsburgh Pirates, to be kind, have not received a desirable return on investment from early-round draft picks in recent years. Despite consistently selecting high in June, the Bucs have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, particularly in 2002 (Bryan Bullington over B.J. Upton with the 1st overall pick) and 2007 (A-Ball bust Daniel Moskos over prospect demigod Matt Wieters).

The Dave Littlefield-run front office that authored those blunders has thankfully been purged. New GM Neal Huntington has made strides to improve the club’s young talent base over the past year by adding players such as Pedro Alvarez, Quinton Miller and Robbie Grossman in the draft, as well as acquiring youngsters such as Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris and Jose Tabata in trades (for more on Pittsburgh’s base of young talent, see Marc Hulet’s post here).

While Littlefield’s draft decisions will live in infamy, his 2003 selection of left-hander Paul Maholm has paid dividends for the organization. The 8th overall pick out of Mississippi State that year, Maholm was not viewed as a quintessential fire-breathing starter, but his polished four-pitch mix (sinker, curve, slider, change) figured to expedite his ascent to Pittsburgh.

The former Bulldog did indeed move quickly, as he rose from the New York Penn League in ’03 all the way to the majors by the summer of 2005. His peripherals along the way fell in line with his solid, not spectacular scouting reports, as he struck out 7.23 batters per nine innings while issuing 3.15 BB/9 and burning plenty of worms (59.5 GB%). In his first big league action in the summer of ’05, Maholm posted a 2.18 ERA in 41.1 innings pitched. That figure, derived from a small amount of work, obviously involved some good fortune (his FIP was 3.84).

Since that point, the 26 year-old has shown steady, gradual improvement:

2006: 5.98 K/9, 4.14 BB/9, 1.44 K/BB, 4.81 FIP
2007: 5.32 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 2.14 K/BB, 4.60 FIP
2008: 6.06 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 2.21 K/BB, 4.15 FIP

For three years running, Maholm has improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio and his FIP, while keeping his infielders busy with a GB% hovering around 53 percent. The 6-2, 220 pounder also has a three-year upward trend in Outside Swing%: 19.5% in ’06, 20.1% in ’07 and 25.7% in ’08. To boot, Maholm posted the best Contact% of his career this past season (81.5%, down from 85.2% the previous year) and continued to pound the strike zone with a 62 percent First-Pitch Strike% that ranked in the top 25 among all starters.

Pittsburgh’s nominal ace (recently inked to a three-year, arbitration-ending deal with an option year) might not possess the sort of stuff that allows one to dream of future stardom, but Paul Maholm’s average K rate, coupled with pretty solid control and groundball tendencies, make him a good bet to keep his FIP in the low four’s going forward. That might not get you all excited, but Maholm’s brand of above-average, high-probability pitching would be a fine way of rounding out a good fantasy rotation.

For a southpaw with plus velocity who won’t turn 28 until April, Rockies hurler Jorge de la Rosa has experienced quite the nomadic career. Originally signed out of Mexico by the Arizona Diamondbacks all the way back in 1998, de la Rosa has since passed through Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado, and has been involved in four trades. Within one week in the fall of 2003, de la Rosa was shipped from Boston back to Arizona in the Curt Schilling trade, only to be sent packing to the Brewers in the 9-player Richie Sexson swap. Jorge was part of a July 2006 deal that sent him to Kansas City for Tony Graffanino, and was bartered yet again in April of ’08, this time heading to the inhospitable environs of Coors Field.

The main culprit for the 6-1, 210 pounder’s game of roster hot-potato has been his control. Despite pumping gas in the low 90’s and complementing the heat with three other offerings, de la Rosa has walked nearly five batters per nine innings (4.92 BB/9) in the big leagues, a continuation of his work in the minors (3.64 BB/9). de la Rosa’s strike zone issues have left him fighting to stay in one place for more than a season or two, as he has compiled a career 4.86 FIP.

2008, however, brought with it legitimate progress. de la Rosa made 23 starts and tossed 130 innings both in ’07 with the Royals and ’08 with the Rockies, and the results this past season were far more promising. The Monterrey native posted mild peripherals with Kansas City, with 5.68 K/9, 3.67 BB/9 and a 5.27 FIP. In 2008, de la Rosa upped his strikeout rate considerably, punching out 8.86 batters per nine innings. His control still came and went (4.29 BB/9), but the end result was a sturdy-looking 4.06 FIP.

de la Rosa added a tick to his fastball this past year, throwing his heat at an average of 92.8 MPH (91.4 MPH in ’07). In addition, he started throwing his slider a good deal more, using the 84 MPH breaker 16.1% of the time in ’08 after snapping off a slide-piece just 6.4% in 2007. Armed with a solid fastball, a sharp slider, a slow 73 MPH curve (9.3%) and an 83.5 MPH changeup (18%), Jorge improved his Outside-Swing and Contact rates considerably.

After garnering an O-Swing% of just 20.3% with the Royals in 2007, de la Rosa got batters to fish out of the strike zone 25.6% with Colorado in ’08, slightly above the major league average. To boot, his Contact% fell from 82.1% in ’07 down to 76.4% in ’08. That was the 10th-lowest contact rate among pitchers tossing at least 130 frames, sandwiched between A.J. Burnett and Jake Peavy.

Burned by the home run in the past, de la Rosa modestly upped his groundball percentage from 40.6% to 45.7% this past season. The extra worm-burners, coupled with the K’s, were enough to qualify de la Rosa for Rich Lederer’s list of starters posting the best combination of groundball and strikeout rates over at The Baseball Analysts. Not surprisingly, the group of starters keeping the ball on the ground and missing bats were the most successful of the four types of pitchers studied (high K and GB rates, high K and low GB rates, low K and high GB rates and low K and low GB rates). Said Lederer:

“I am intrigued by de la Rosa, who was 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA and compelling peripheral stats in August and September, a period covering 11 games and nine starts (including five at Coors Field) and 58.2 innings.”

With the health status of Jeff Francis (shoulder) very much in doubt, de la Rosa figures to capture one of Colorado’s rotation spots. Keep a close eye on Jorge this spring- he could finally make good on the promise he has only hinted at to this point in his career.

Fresh off a glorious World Series title, the Philadelphia Phillies will soon convene for spring training with relatively few roster changes. Outside of a curiously-handled swap of defensively-challenged left fielders (Seattle import Raul Ibanez is several years Pat Burrell’s senior, guaranteed nearly twice as much cash and cost the club a first-round pick), Philly returns with its core intact.

Aside from the obviously crucial health status of Chase Utley (hip), perhaps the most interesting story during March will be the battle for the fifth starter’s job. $20.5 million dollar man Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are set one through four, but that last slot has a few contenders of varying consequence vying for the job. If we assume for the moment that Carlos Carrasco (Philly’s #2 prospect, per Baseball America) heads back to AAA for some more seasoning and newly-minted Chan Ho Park is probably best kept in the bullpen, then the battle for the last rotation spot comes down to lefty J.A. Happ and right-hander Kyle Kendrick.

Frankly, it doesn’t seem as though there should be much of a competition. Happ, a 26 year-old Northwestern product, is coming off of a stellar campaign at AAA Lehigh Valley. In 135 innings, the lanky 6-6 southpaw whiffed 151 batters (10.07 per nine innings) and walked 3.2 per nine, posting a 3.40 FIP. That strikeout rate might overstate Happ’s case at least somewhat- he’s not overpowering, but he does feature a solid changeup and slider to compensate for an 88-90 MPH fastball.

Happ has a history of making batters appear hapless (sorry), as he has punched out over a batter per inning during his minor league career (545 K in 528.2 IP, or 9.28 K/9). His control isn’t spectacular (3.49 BB/9) and a fly ball tendency (career 40.3 GB%) could be pernicious in Citizen’s Bank Park, so we’re not talking about a can’t miss stud or anything. But Happ’s brand of pitching very likely beats the alternative.

Kyle Kendrick, despite possessing 3 K’s in his name, just doesn’t miss many bats. The 24 year-old has displayed pretty good control in the majors (2.67 BB/9 in 276.2 innings), but his strikeout rate makes Livan Hernandez puff out his chest: Kendrick has a career mark of just 3.81 K/9. Not surprisingly, he has been among the easiest pitchers to make contact with. Only the aforementioned Hernandez (91.3 Contact%) gave batters a more hittable assortment last year among those tossing at least 150 innings, as opponents put the bat on Kendrick’s offerings 89.9% of the time.

The 6-3, 190 pounder managed to hold his head above water in 2007 when he walked just 1.86 batters per nine and posted a 4.94 FIP, but the figure ballooned to 5.55 this past season as he issued 3.3 BB/9 and K’d only 3.93, “good” for a 1.19 K/BB. Even if Kendrick possessed Maddux-esque control, he would be walking a fine line. With a neutral GB/FB ratio and a walk rate above three, he faces very long odds of enjoying major league success.

Happ might not be a sure-fire, flashy prospect, but he has shown the ability to fool hitters throughout his minor league career (something Kendrick didn’t really do either, with 6.28 K/9) and projects to be the better starter. CHONE (which incorporates minor league data) tends to agree, forecasting Happ to post a 4.52 FIP in 2009, compared to 5.11 for Kendrick. If the Phillies get Happ-y, you could do worse than to take a flyer on J.A. in deeper leagues.

When the White Sox inked Cuban star Alexei Ramirez to a four-year, $4.75 million deal last offseason, the club anticipated that the wiry right-handed batter would hit the ground running. Though Cuban imports have historically been less of a known quantity, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system spit out a .298/.344/.459 projection for Ramirez, and scouts liked what they saw as well. In a “Scouts View” piece ran in September of 2007, Baseball America talked to a talent evaluator who ranked Ramirez’s hit tool and speed as 60 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale (20 being poorest, 50 being major league average and 80 being superhuman). With a thin 6-3, 185 pound frame and a similar swing, Ramirez was often compared with Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano.

In his first big league season, “The Cuban Missile” turned in a .290/.317/.475 line, posting a .336 wOBA that was very close to the AL average. On the positive side, the then-26 year-old (27 as of late September) ranked 5th among qualified second baseman with a .185 Isolated Power. Playing at U.S. Cellular Field certainly won’t hurt a righty trying to pull the ball: Ramirez showed no discernable home/away split in ’08, but The Cell has boosted HR production by 28 percent from 2006-2008, per The Bill James Handbook. Alexei also made frequent contact, striking out just 12.7% of the time.

While Ramirez did show some pop and put the bat on the ball, he was also among the least patient hitters in the league. Ramirez walked just 3.6% of the time. Among all qualified hitters, only Yuniesky Betancourt, A.J. Pierzynski and Bengie Molina drew a free pass less often. In terms of swinging at pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, Chicago’s new middle infielder ranked behind only Vladimir Guerrero among batters with at least 500 AB. While the Angels’ notorious bad-ball hitter paced the majors with a 45.5 Outside-Swing%, Ramirez was right on his tail with a 42.7% mark. Overall, Alexei swung at 59.9% of his total pitches seen, again ranking behind only Vlad (60.3%).

Pitchers soon became privy to Ramirez’s free-swinging tendencies, rarely offering him a fastball. In fact, he saw a heater less than any other batter in the game with at least 500 AB, with just 47% of his total pitches seen being fastballs. Rather than giving Ramirez’s quick wrists and bat control the opportunity to do damage, opposing hurlers fed him a steady diet of sliders (24.4%, 4th among all batters with 500 AB). Ramirez also saw the second-highest proportion of curveballs (12%) and the 20th-highest frequency of changeups (12.8%).

While Ramirez is certainly an interesting player with some power and contact skills, it’s difficult to say just how much of an asset he will become (overall, Alexei was worth just 1.1 Value Wins in ’08, as his league-average bat was coupled with poor fielding numbers: his -9.2 UZR/150 at 2B does not bode well for a transition to shortstop). Ramirez is already 27- not old by any means, but in the age range where “what you see is what you get”, and his less-than-discerning eye is troublesome.

There’s some method to Ramirez’s hacking madness, in that he does frequently put the bat on the ball, but such an approach could lead him prone to seeing an even steadier stream of curves and sliders. Such a trend becomes apparent when you look at Ramirez’s percentage of fastballs seen by month:

April: 51.9%
May: 52.8%
June: 49.7%
July: 47.7%
Aug.: 42.5%
Sept.: 43.9%

“The Cuban Missile” produced a decent rookie season, and perhaps one could argue that he’ll improve a little as he becomes more acclimated to the majors. However, his lack of restraint at the dish might keep him from becoming more than an exciting, frustrating, overall average player.

Earlier today, we took a gander at high-octane closer candidate Chris Perez. However, Perez is not the only home-grown, gas-pumping reliever who could take over ninth-inning duties for the Cardinals. Many envision Perez becoming St. Louis’ stopper, but Jason Motte poses a formidable roadblock.

While Perez was a well-regarded prospect, developed at a major college program (The University of Miami) that has churned out plenty of high draft picks as of late, Motte’s baseball origins are far less conventional or glamorous. The 6-0, 195 pounder was originally selected in the 19th round of the 2003 draft out of Iona as a catcher. Motte was always lauded for his superb arm strength behind the dish. But the whole…batting thing? It wasn’t really working out. In 614 career minor league at-bats, Motte “hit” a ghastly .191/.220/.233.

Thoroughly convinced that Motte was unable to handle professional pitching, the Cardinals organization decided to shift him to the mound in 2006, hoping that his cannon arm would translate well. Motte worked a total of 39 innings split between State College (New York Penn League) and Quad Cities (Low-A), and the initial results were promising: he posted a 38/7 K/BB ratio with a 2.69 ERA.

The following year, Motte spend just 10 innings with Palm Beach of the High-A Florida State League before being pushed up to AA Springfield, quite the leap for a converted catcher with less than 50 career innings under his belt to that point. Despite his inexperience, Motte made opposing batters look like they were the ones new to their craft, collecting 63 strikeouts in just 49 innings. His control was less than desirable (22 free passes), but he posted a solid 2.96 FIP for Springfield.

St. Louis continued to move Motte through the system aggressively this past season, starting him off at AAA Memphis. Motte had made a habit of missing plenty of bats during his rapid ascent, but his strikeout numbers in the Pacific Coast League were borderline ridiculous: in 66.2 innings, he punched out an absurd 110 batters (14.85 K/9). That figure led the PCL among pitchers tossing at least 60 frames: Dirk Hayhurst finished a very, very distant second with 10.5 K/9. Motte was still occasionally wild (3.51 BB/9), but he posted a 2.29 FIP for Memphis.

Just a few short years after his transition, Motte made his major league debut this past September. Nothing can really be inferred from an 11-inning sample, but the 26 year-old did make a good first impression as he whiffed 16 and walked three. He also showcased his explosive, bat-breaking four-seam fastball: Motte’s average heater came in at 96.6 MPH. He coupled that with an 88 MPH slider, giving batters a “harder, hardest” combo that leaves little time for reaction.

As Baseball America notes, Motte is still messing around with a few different secondary pitches in order to see what sticks: “Motte showed no effective second pitch during his big league stint. He has worked on a slider, cutter and splitter but none is reliable yet.” BA also notes that Motte’s heat is “straight as an arrow” (not surprising, as four-seamers impart the most back-spin on the baseball; the trade-off for the decreased resistance is less tailing action).

It is also worth noting that as Motte jumped levels, he became more of a flyball pitcher: according to Minor League Splits, he posted a 39.1 GB% in AA in 2007 and a 36.7 GB% in AAA this past year. That could lead to a few more souvenirs, though New Busch has done quite the number on HR production since its 2006 opening: Busch III has deflated homers by 16 percent from ’06 to ’08.

Motte is similar to Perez in a number of ways, as both are righties with excellent velocity, intermittent control and nasty-if-inconsistent sliders. It basically seems like a coin flip as to which guy ends up getting the call in the ninth inning as opposed to the eighth. Like with Perez, fantasy owners will want to watch Motte this spring to see if his blazing fastball and ability to fool hitters is enough to counteract average control and just occasionally effective off-speed stuff.

The bullpen in St. Louis is in a state of transition. After handing the ball to Jason Isringhausen in high-leverage situations since 2002, the Red Birds will now have to cobble together another closer. Izzy (now a free agent) battled injuries (knee, hand, elbow) and was generally ineffective, posting a 4.87 FIP and a -2.97 WPA in 2008. Overall, St. Louis’ relief corps turned in a season to forget, finishing 25th in the majors in FIP and 22nd in WPA.

Luckily, hope is on the horizon in the form of a big-bodied, hard-throwing righty: Chris Perez. A 2006 supplemental first-round pick out of the University of Miami, Perez made quick work of the minor leagues in ascending from A-ball to the big leagues within a two-year period. Listed at 6-4, 225 pounds (but appearing to weigh considerably more than that), Perez used his searing upper-90’s fastball and occasionally wicked slider to rack up 147 strikeouts in 109 career minor league innings (12.1 K/9). The former Hurricane surrendered just 61 hits along the way.

While Perez has shown the ability to miss bats aplenty, he has also had his fair share of trouble in finding the strike zone. The 23 year-old issued 72 walks in the minors, a whopping 5.94 per nine innings. Suffice it to say, he’s going to need to harness his control in order to become a guy entrusted in the late innings, rather than the next Kyle Farnsworth (although Farnsy enjoys unfathomable job security at the moment).

When Perez reached St. Louis in mid-May, he continued to tantalize with his K rates and high-octane stuff while also frustrating with his command hiccups. On the positive side, Perez highlighted his closer-worthy talent, pumping in fastballs at an average of 95.2 MPH (used 75% of the time) and complementing the heater with an 85.1 MPH slider (utilized nearly a quarter of the time). That dastardly combo led to plenty of swings and misses, as Perez punched out 9.07 batters per nine innings in 41.2 frames. Control, however, continued to elude the portly right-hander: he allowed 4.75 BB/9, which led to a 4.33 FIP.

At the moment, the Cardinals’ official depth-chart lists Perez as the club’s closer. Whether he holds that distinction when the games start remains to be seen. In an interview with Matthew Leach of MLB.com, Cards skipper Tony La Russa appeared non-committal when asked about his high-leverage horses for the ’09 season:

“You still want to improve your bullpen,” La Russa said. “We still want to try. I know we talked about it. The optimum thing is not to ask Chris or Jason to close in ’09. Let them grow into the role when they’re ready to take it. So who else is out there?”

That interview did take place a month ago, but it serves to show that while St. Louis might admire Perez’s long-term upside, the team is not wedded to the idea of handing over 9th-inning duties to him from day one in 2009. In the publication’s 2009 organizational rankings, Baseball America summed up Perez’s situation perfectly: “Command and inexperience continue to block Perez from being dubbed St. Louis’ closer…he’ll ascend to the ninth once he improves his grip on his repertoire.”

With St. Louis’ late-game ‘pen anything but settled, Perez is certainly someone to watch closely. His strengths (missing bats, plus velocity and a sometimes-nasty slider) peg him as a candidate for important innings, but his progress in harnessing his control and command will dictate just how valuable he becomes. Fantasy owners might just want to follow La Russa’s line of thinking: don’t rush out and anoint Perez just yet, but keep an eye on him with the idea that he could play a larger role down the line.