Arizona Diamondbacks

Activated RHP Max Scherzer from the 15-day disabled list. Optioned RHP Billy Buckner to Triple-A Reno.

Scherzer (who had been sidelined with a tight shoulder) becomes a must-start if he shows that he’s physically sound. His mid-90’s gas and sharp mid-80’s breaker give him the artillery necessary to beat down major league hitters, though his bumpy control and stamina will have to be improved. CHONE and ZiPS both call for a FIP of about 3.60- Scherzer is extremely talented, but it’s difficult to project just how many starts he’ll make in 2009.

Boston Red Sox

Placed SS Jed Lowrie on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to April 12, with a left wrist sprain. Recalled INF Gil Velazquez from Triple-A Pawtucket.

Placed RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka on the 15-day disabled list with a mild right shoulder strain. Recalled LHP Hunter Jones from Triple-A Pawtucket.

Lowrie was bothered by a wrist injury last season as well, and unfortunately for him, Julio Lugo (rehabbing from a knee problem) will beat him back to the field. The switch-hitting Lowrie (25 tomorrow-talk about a crappy birthday present), is certainly a larger part of Boston’s future going forward. The projection systems presented here at Fan Graphs peg Lowrie as the better batsmen, though not a huge margin:

Lowrie’s projected wOBA’s:

CHONE: .335
ZiPS: .328
Oliver: .329

Lugo’s projected wOBA’s:

CHONE: .319
ZiPS: .326
Oliver: .309

Matsuzaka, meanwhile, is suffering from the always-nebulous designation of “arm fatigue.” Through two ineffective starts, Dice-K’s velocity is down about two and a half MPH from 2008 (91.8 MPH in ’08, 89.2 MPH in ’09).

Chicago White Sox

Placed OF Dewayne Wise on the 15-day disabled list with a Grade 3 separated right shoulder. Purchased the contract of OF Jerry Owens from Triple-A Charlotte. Signed free agent OF Scott Podsednik, who had been with the Rockies, to a Minor League contract.

“Dewayne Wise, everyday center fielder” was about as good of an idea as Disco Demolition Night: ill-conceived, lots of destruction, very little productivity. Wise (he of a career .253 OBP) hits the shelf following a shoulder injury suffered diving for a ball. Neither Brian Anderson (career .653 OPS) nor the recalled Owens (.632) should be sniffing anywhere near your fantasy squad. As for the ubiquitous Podsednik? His slappy skill-set at the plate wouldn’t appear to make him any more qualified for the role.

St. Louis Cardinals

Placed RHP Chris Carpenter on the 15-day disabled list. Optioned RHP Brad Thompson to Triple-A Memphis. Recalled RHP Mitchell Boggs and RHP Chris Perez from Triple-A Memphis.

Well, so much for that. Carp finds himself on the DL again, this time with a strained oblique suffered on a swing in the 4th inning of his second start.

As for Perez, he could well re-enter the closer derby developing in St. Louis. Ryan Franklin is ostensibly “the man” for the moment (the way this is going, that could change by the time you read this), but he and his near-five career FIP seem ill-suited to serve in critical late-game situations.

Let’s take a look at the early season performances of the bullpen rock stars, the closers. For the purposes of this “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies: “Lights Out” remains perfect in save situations, though he’s surrendered 3 runs and two bombs in five innings. Lidge was due for some regression in the tater department: his HR/FB% was just 3.9 in 2008. Odds are, he’ll post a FIP in the low-three’s as a few more homers leave the park and will be labeled a “disappointment” despite little change in his actual skill level.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets:

Jerry Manuel, forward thinker:

“We have, as an industry, somewhat boxed ourselves into making people believe that, ‘If it’s not that [save] situation, I don’t do well,'” Manuel said. “But the game is still on the line. That’s the bottom line. And that’s what we — especially as the team we are in New York — we have to understand that. It’s about the win, and not the statistic.” (Mets.com, via Rotoworld)

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Big John is 3-for-3 to start the season, with 5 punchouts and no walks in 4 frames. His upper-90’s cheddar and nasty slider give him the equipment to dominate.

Matt Capps, Pirates: Capps (apparently healthy after a shoulder injury in 2008) is an odd duck as a late-inning reliever: he throws hard and relies heavily on his heat, but he gets the job done more with location (career 1.36 BB/9) than sheer force (6.7 K/9). Capps has converted both save opportunities thus far.

Heath Bell, Padres: The Padres do as good a job as anyone in procuring cheap, effective bullpen help, and they continue to go that route. Take a look at the current relief corps: literally everyone outside of Bell, Cla Meredith (both also acquired in lower-level trades) and Edwin Moreno was not in the organization as of a couple months ago. So far, so good for Heath: he’s racked up four saves in four chances.

In Control

Mike Gonzalez, Braves: Gonzo’s beginning his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and is 1-for-2 in save ops thus far.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins: He’s working his way back from a strained right rotator cuff, and is also one for two in picking up the save. Lindstrom doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d think he would, given the upper-90’s velocity (career 7.62 K/9).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg clearly plays second-fiddle to Carlos Marmol in talent level, but the erstwhile Marlin will rack up the glory stat for one of the National League’s strongest clubs. He’s off to a turbulent start (6/5 K/BB in 4 IP).

Francisco Cordero, Reds: After a macabre spring, Cincy’s good-but-overcompensated stopper has pitched three scoreless frames, with 4 K’s and no walks.

Jose Valverde, Astros: Valverde has yet to get a save op, as the Houston Astros trot out a “you mean he’s still around?”-quality back of the rotation.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks: With little fanfare, Qualls posted a 3.02 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate to root out good or bad luck on flyballs) in 2008. That bested Valverde (3.49), the man for whom he was traded prior to the ’08 season, by nearly half a run.

Brian Wilson, Giants: Wilson is a high-octane hurler, punching out 9.67 batters per nine innings in 2008 while also generating grounders at a 51.7% clip. Can his control take a step forward? Stay tuned.

Watch Your Back

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals: Joel hasn’t had a save chance yet, what with the Nats laying the groundwork for a quick fall into irrelevance in 2009. He’s whiffed over 9 batters per nine innings in his career, but Hanrahan’s helter-skelter control (5.31 BB/9) will have Manny Acta and fantasy owners reaching for the Tums on a regular basis.

Carlos Villanueva, Brewers: Villanueva is simply keeping the seat warm for Trevor Hoffman (oblique injury). “Hell’s Bells” will soon blare at Miller Park, but the extreme flyball act might not work as well outside of Petco.

Jason Motte/Ryan Franklin/Kyle McClellan/Denys Reyes, Cardinals: Motte got off on the wrong foot opening day, surrendering the lead to the Pirates and apparently losing the confidence of Tony La Russa. Motte still looks like the best man for the job, but it’s anyone’s guess as to who enters the next time the Cards have a lead in the late innings.

Huston Street, Rockies: Street has given up 6 hits and 3 runs in 2.2 innings so far. Manny Corpas (and possibly Taylor Buchholz when he returns from an elbow injury) could continue to remain in the picture.

Let’s take a look at the early season performances of the bullpen rock stars, the closers. For the purposes of this “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: Mo shall throw a cutter, and you shall not hit it. Rivera has only gotten one save and two frames of work thus far, but the 40 year-old wonder remains damn-near untouchable.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: The Angels smacked Papelbon on April 11th (Torii Hunter took him deep), but there’s nothing to worry about here.

Kerry Wood, Indians: Woody hasn’t had much action with the Tribe off to a false start, but he’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.67 K/BB ratio and a 2.32 FIP.

Joakim Soria, Royals: The Mexicutioner won’t post a 1.60 ERA again (his BABIP was a Tony Pena Jr.-esque .215 in ’08), but his filthy four-pitch mix makes him one of the best (and perhaps most overqualified) relievers in the game.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox: Jenks has certainly become a different sort of hurler over the past few seasons; whether that’s for the best remains to be seen. The Royals got to him on April 9th, but he converted another opportunity versus the club on the 7th and blanked the Twins on the 12th.

Joe Nathan, Twins: How many people realize that Nathan hasn’t posted a K/BB of less than four since 2004, and that his 2.79 FIP in 2008 was his highest mark since his last year in a Giants uniform (2003)?

In Control

George Sherrill, Orioles: Sherrill is 3-for-3 in save situations to start the year, through he’ll have to contend with rehabilitated flame-thrower Chris Ray throughout the season.

Brad Ziegler, Athletics: The generic starter-turned submariner is 2-for-3 in save situations for the year, but he won’t have to worry about Joey Devine (elbow, 60-day DL) any time soon.

Brandon Morrow: Morrow’s move to the bullpen has certainly spurred some lively debate. He’s off to a bit of a rough start (4/5 K/BB in 2.2 IP) and David Aardsma has snatched up a couple saves, but the job is supposed to be there for the former Cal star. In other disappointing news, top prospect Philip Aumont was also moved to the ‘pen. At this rate, the 2010 rotation will consist of Felix Hernandez and “staff.”

Brian Fuentes, Angels: Fuentes is 2-for-3 in save ops thus far, with 6 hits and 4 runs allowed. The former Rockie was quite good last season, but the 2.73 ERA is pushing it: his HR/FB rate was just 4.5% (the average is around 10-11%). Fuentes’ velocity has been down, for whatever that’s worth in 3 innings of work (89.8 MPH on the fastball in ’09, 91.6 MPH in ’08).

Frank Francisco, Rangers: Francisco whiffed 11.79 per nine in ’08 with a 3.18 FIP, but his control does come and go, not the best tendency for a high-leverage reliever. He’s the best that Texas has to offer, but his leash might not be as long as it should be with Eddie Guardado and C.J. Wilson lurking around.

Watch Your Back

Troy Percival, Rays: Between Percy’s chronic back and hamstring issues as well as Joe Maddon’s flexibility in using his best relievers in the most crucial situations (that could be a save situation, or not), the burly veteran isn’t guaranteed much.

B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays: Ryan has looked downright awkward to begin the ’09 season: he used to sit 90-91 with his heater and snap off wicked mid-80’s sliders, but the herky-jerky lefty is averaging just 88 MPH through three appearances. The role is his for now, but the Jays do possess a deep ‘pen.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers: Rodney will get the call in the 9th for now, having usurped Brandon Lyon. Still, he’s Fernando Rodney, he of a career 4.51 BB/9. He looks like he should dominate with that gas/changeup combo, but he just doesn’t. ’08 first-rounder Ryan Perry looms in the background.

If you mentioned the name “Erik Bedard” to a Mariners fan during the 2008 season, odds are you would have received a menacing glare, followed perhaps by a desultory comment or two about your lineage. Bedard was baseball’s version of Lord Voldemort, “He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named” for fear that doing so would force the cosmos to swoop in and pilfer another round of Mariners prospects.

Then under the command of unsteady hand Bill Bavasi, the M’s acquired Bedard prior to the ’08 season using fuzzy math: “88 wins plus studly southpaw equals playoffs.” Unfortunately, Seattle was not working with an 88-win talent base: going by the club’s runs scored (798) and allowed (825), the Mariners should have finished at a run-of-the-mill 79-83.

Seattle expended two immense young talents to acquire the powerful-but-fragile lefty, sending rangy center fielder Adam Jones and right-hander Christopher Tillman to the O’s, along with Anthony Butler, Kameron Mickolio and George Sherrill. While Jones was busy covering wide swaths of territory in the bigs and Tillman was beating up Double-A batters at age 20, Bedard tossed all of 81 frames for the M’s (only 28 more than Sherrill did out of the ‘pen for Baltimore).

Bedard was a force for the O’s in ’07, utilizing his low-90’s gas and power curve to post a 3.19 FIP and 5.4 Value Wins (that after compiling 5 wins in 2006). But in ’08, you name it, Bedard hurt it: hip, back and shoulder injuries caused the Canadian to turn in just 1.1 Value Wins. His whiff rate, which spiked to nearly 11 per nine innings in 2008, fell to 8 per nine, and he handed out 4.11 BB/9. The result was a 4.32 FIP- not exactly the desired return when you part with years of cost-controlled goodness from two top-notch farm products.

After a hectic offseason that included rumors of a serious shoulder injury and the possibility of the M’s washing their hands of Bedard by non-tendering him, the 30 year-old has rocketed out of the gate in 2009. In 13.1 innings, Bedard has flummoxed batters with a 15/1 K/BB ratio and just 9 hits allowed.

No grand conclusions should be drawn from two starts against the Twins and A’s, but Bedard has induced swinging strikes on 12.3% of his pitches (8.9% in 2008; the league average is 7.8%). His sweeping curve was superb against Oakland (check out the BrooksBaseball.net Pitch F/X tool-it’s a great resource), with over eight inches of dropping action as well as nearly 7 inches of horizontal break. His fastball also had plenty of tailing action, and he threw the pitch for a strike nearly 70% of the time. In Bedard’s stellar outing versus the Twinkies, he located his breaking ball for a strike almost 84% of the time.

Bedard will need to contribute far more than two great starts in April for the sting of the Jones/Tillman trade to even begin to fade (it likely never will), but a healthy Bedard (along with Felix Hernandez) would give the M’s one of the better one-two punches in the American League. His injury history is too lengthy to ignore, but Bedard could provide ace-level production at a discount for owners, given the sour taste he left in the mouths of many in 2008.

Stock Up

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Colorado’s uber-rangy shortstop inked a six-year, $31 million pact last winter on the heels of a studly debut season in 2007 (5.3 Value Wins), but a quadriceps injury hurt his fleetness afield and contributed to a rather quiet year at the plate (.313 wOBA, -10.1 Batting Runs) in ’08. Tulo’s off to a good start thus far, popping 3 homers in the early portion of the 2009 season.

Alberto Callaspo, Royals

With eight-figure hacker Jose Guillen hitting the DL with a groin injury, the “Mark Teahen, second baseman” experiment will likely be put on hold until late-April. With Teahen shifting back to right field, Callaspo will soak up some at-bats and play second in the interim. The erstwhile D-Back prospect isn’t especially patient at the dish and his power is downright Bloomquistian. However, he does make a ton of contact and could be worth a shot in deeper leagues. Think Mark Grudzielanek.

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carpenter turned back the clock to 2006 this past week, beating up on the Pirates in a seven-inning masterpiece. Carp generated a boatload of groundballs and allowed nary a walk, all while tossing six different offerings. We shouldn’t infer too much from one outing, but a mended Carpenter would be a game-changer for both the Cardinals and fantasy owners.

Nick Swisher, Yankees

Swisher was pegged by many to bounce back from a “down” year at the plate in 2008 (very little changed in his offensive profile, save for a flukish dip in BABIP from .308 in ’07 to .251 in ’08). While it still remains to be seen how often he’ll be deployed, Swish has belted two early-season dingers to help his cause.

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

Bonifacio is rated as a “Stock Up” player here, but please folks, let’s not go overboard. There exists a tendency in the media to put a frame or a label around everything, trying to extract meaning from each and every event. Yes, Florida’s man at the hot corner has gotten off to a nice start, but he’s the same guy who has been traded twice and holds a career .278/.332/.384 minor league line. Because Bonifacio has gone 14-for-29 during the first week of the season, everyone notices. Had this hot streak occurred in mid-June, it’s possible that only Mama Bonifacio would be talking about it.

Seattle’s Erik Bedard clearly deserves mention here as well, but I’m planning something more extensive on the lefty for tomorrow.

Stock Down

Brett Myers, Phillies

Right now, Myers looks more like the guy demoted to Iron Pigdom last summer than Cole Hamels‘ strong sidekick. It’s not all bad (he has a 12/2 K/BB ratio), but Myers has served up 6 taters in 13 frames while throwing his 90 MPH heater less than 47% of the time. Brett won’t keep the insane 40 HR/FB% short of pitching in a Little League stadium, but hanging sliders and changeups are going to kill a pitcher in a park like Citizens Bank.

Josh Willingham, Nationals

Have you seen Josh Willingham? If so, please contact the Washington Nationals at 1500 South Capitol Street. “The Hammer” is currently hammered to the bench as a casualty of the Nats’ outfield glut, with 12 PA on the year.

Scott Lewis, Indians

Lewis entered the year with a job in the Indians’ rotation on the basis of a strong minor league track record and a plus changeup, but the flyball hurler with an unimposing fastball surrendered 2 big flys and 7 hits during his first start. He then was placed on the DL with a strained left forearm. Cleveland’s starting options might not be flashy, but there are a number of serviceable arms in waiting. The Ohio State product might have to wait for another shot.

Scott Olsen, Nationals

Have you seen Scott Olsen’s fastball? If so, contact the Nationals at 1500 South Capitol Street. Olsen was once among the brightest young moundsmen in the game, with low-90’s velocity and a promising slider, but his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff in recent years. The 25 year-old southpaw has mysteriously lost 4 MPH on his cheese since 2006, falling from 90.9 MPH to just 86.9 MPH in 2009. Finesse stuff with ordinary control- that’s a bad combination.

Carl Pavano, Indians

I suppose that Pavano should get a gold star for not injuring himself (save for the ego) during his first start of the 2009 season, but man, was it ugly: 1 inning, 6 hits, 9 runs. Pavano still has some time to turn things around (his incentive cash won’t start kicking in until around start number eighteen), but you’ll want to avoid the Big Apple punch line regardless.

As a switch-hitting backstop with an actual chance of inflicting some damage at the plate, Jarrod Saltalamacchia would enjoy a rather uninhibited path to playing time on the vast majority of major league clubs. However, “Salty” has happened to be property of two catching-rich organizations during the course of his professional career.

A sandwich pick (36th overall) by the Atlanta Braves in the 2003 amateur draft, Saltalamacchia (mostly dubbed “Salty” from here on, for the sake of my sanity and spell checkers everywhere) began his big league ascent with the GCL Braves. In 164 PA, the 6-4 catcher displayed sound strike-zone judgment, batting .239/.382/.396.

Baseball America ranked Salty as Atlanta’s 19th best prospect entering the 2004 season, trailing a second round pick in the ’02 draft named Brian McCann. “For the second straight year”, BA wrote, “the Braves believe they emerged with the draft’s best catcher.”

Making his full-season debut at Low-A Rome, Saltalamacchia impressed with a .272/.342/.437 line, popping 10 home runs in 357 PA. The 19 year-old again displayed a keen eye at the plate (10.5 BB%), though his near 26% K rate brought back some concerns about a longish swing. Salty also dealt with a sore wrist and hamstring.

Still, the campaign was a big positive overall, as Salty climbed to 9th on Atlanta’s prospect list (McCann also moved up, from 7th in ’04 to 3rd in ’05). While noting that his “receiving and footwork need further improvement”, BA believed that Saltalamacchia had “quieted skeptics who wondered if he’d be able to stay behind the plate.”

While Salty’s work in ’04 earned him some praise, it was his robust work in 2005 that really put him with the big boys on the prospect map. Playing at Myrtle Beach in the High-A Carolina League, Salty pulverized pitchers as a Pelican, showing secondary skills galore (.314/.394/.519 in 529 PA). He was downright Posada-like at the plate, drawing a walk 12.4% of the time while blasting 19 big flys. Even Salty’s whiff rate (21.6%) trended in the right direction.

Prior to the 2006 season, Saltalamacchia was honored as the best and brightest in the Braves system, and ranked as the 18th best prospect in the minors. As BA noted, “while Brian McCann was establishing himself as a quality young backstop in the majors, Saltalamacchia made a case for being the best catching prospect in the minors.”

Salty made his highly anticipated AA debut in 2006, but the results ended up falling short of what most were expecting. By no means was he bad, but a .230/.353/.380 showing on the heels of his studly work in ’05 left some feeling a bit let down.

On the positive side, his walk rate remained stellar (14.9 BB%) and a .150 ISO from a 21 year-old catcher is nothing to sneeze at. Salty’s .270 BABIP also pointed to some misfortune upon contact. There were other extenuating circumstances as well- a lingering wrist injury sapped his pop. In all, Salty’s work in ’06 was not near as disappointing as it looks upon first glance.

BA again rated Salty as Atlanta’s best farm talent in its 2007 Prospect Handbook, while also recognizing that an opportunity to showcase his skills with the team that drafted him might not come. Said BA, “Brian McCann is one of the best young catchers in baseball [he posted a .402 wOBA in ’06], and while Saltalamacchia is similarly gifted, there’s room for only one of them behind the plate in Atlanta.”

Salty smoked AA to begin the 2007 season (.452 wOBA in 94 PA), earning a big league call up in early May. He split his time between catcher and first base with the Braves, batting .284/.333/.411 in 153 PA.

BA’s comment about Salty not being long for Atlanta looked prescient, as Atlanta shipped their other highly-touted backstop to the Rangers during the summer as part of a stunning prospect haul for Mark Teixeira (that trade also netted Texas Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones). Salty again oscillated between opposite ends of the defensive spectrum with the Rangers, hitting .253/.352/.364 in 176 PA.

In 2008, Saltalamacchia dealt with a plethora of bumps and bruises, from a forearm injury to groin, hand and foot issues as well. Through all the cold tubs and Icy Hot, he batted .253/.352/.364 with a .319 wOBA. Salty worked the count well (13.5 BB%), but his Custian whiff rate (37.4 K%) and .388 BABIP were concerning.

Freed from McCann’s shadow, Salty is free to don the tools of ignorance without looking over his shoulder, right? Well, not necessarily. Former University of Texas star Taylor Teagarden is reputed to be one of the best defensive catchers in the game while lacking the thump to play another position, and Maximiliano Ramirez (himself a former Braves farm hand) shredded the Texas League in 2008 (his reputation behind the dish is much less acclaimed, however).

For now, it seems as though the Rangers are content to platoon Salty and Teagarden, with Teagarden taking on the southpaws who have thus far given Saltalamacchia nightmares (.554 OPS in 208 PA).

Saltalamacchia might not have any sort of buzz surrounding him right now, but he still possesses secondary skills that most catchers just cannot match and he won’t turn 24 until May. Our five projection systems here at Fan Graphs all peg Salty as a .250-ish hitter with an OBP around .330 and a SLG% between .420-.430. If he gets the lion’s share of playing time behind the dish, it would be wise to give Salty a spin.

You’ll have to forgive Cardinals fans who became nostalgic yesterday afternoon, watching former pitching messiah Chris Carpenter twirl a seven-inning masterpiece versus the hapless Pirates. For one game anyway, it was 2006 all over again.

The fact that Carpenter is even able to take the mound at this point in his career is a testament to modern medicine. Carp suffered a torn labrum as a Toronto Blue Jay back in 2002, which Baseball Prospectus med-head Will Carroll called “a professional death sentence for pitchers.”

Of course, the big right-hander did not go silently into the night, eventually establishing new heights with the Cardinals. Carpenter showed promise with the Jays, generally posting Fielding Independent ERA’s in the low-to-mid fours, but he morphed into a bona-fide ace with the Red Birds. Carp was once supposed to team up with Toronto stud Roy Halladay to form a dynamic one-two punch north of the border. While that didn’t occur, Carpenter essentially became a Doc Halladay doppelganger from 2004 to 2006:

2004: 182 IP, 7.52 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 52.2 GB%, 3.85 FIP
2005: 241.2 IP, 7.93 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 54.5 GB%, 2.90 FIP
2006: 221.2 IP, 7.47 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 53.3 GB%, 3.44 FIP

Carpenter’s pro career reached its apex in ’06: not only did he celebrate a World Series title, but he also inked a lucrative contract extension that winter. The Cards locked up their mended ace for five years and $63 million, plus a 2012 club option.

Unfortunately, his stardom was once again put on hold. The immense workload shouldered during Carpenter’s Cy Young 2005 season and championship-winning 2006 campaign had taxed his body. He went under the knife for Tommy John surgery, but as Carroll explains, his path back to the majors has been rife with sharp left turns:

“During his rehab, though, things have gone anything but predictably. He had a shoulder strain as well as nerve issues in his elbow (a common TJ complication) and in his shoulder, a combination which doctors have called “unprecedented.” The nerve transposition in his elbow is perhaps the most controversial element of what was done in Carpenter’s surgery; most surgeons currently move the ulnar nerve as a part of the Tommy John procedure to avoid this kind of setback, but it was not done in Carpenter’s case.” (Will Carroll’s Under The Knife: Chris Carpenter, March 11, 2009).

While it’s anyone’s guess as to how well the 34 year-old will hold up in the long run, Carpenter was stellar in his season-opening start against the Bucs. He did not allow a hit through 6.2 frames, whiffing seven and walking none. Here’s a quick look at Carp’s Pitch F/X data for the game:

Carpenter broke out all of his pitches versus the Pirates, mixing in fastballs, sinkers, cutters, curves, sliders and a couple changeups:

(X is horizontal movement, Z is vertical movement. FB= fastball, SI= sinker, FC= cutter, SL= slider, CB= curveball, CH= changeup).

FB: 93.1 MPH, -10.5 X, 5.39 Z, 27 thrown
SI: 92.6 MPH, -11.55 X, 4.97 Z, 15 thrown
FC: 89.1 MPH, -1.05 X, 6.13 Z, 13 thrown
SL: 88.5 MPH, -0.66 X, 4.4 Z, 16 thrown
CB: 75.5 MPH, 6.6 X, -9.9 Z, 19 thrown
CH: 85.9 MPH, -10 X, 7.3 Z, 2 thrown

Carpenter’s fastball had an absurd amount of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters, with good velocity to boot. He also used the cutter/slider to keep lefties honest, while buckling knees with his dastardly curveball. Look at the movement on that Uncle Charlie: nearly 10 inches of drop, with over six and a half inches of side-to-side movement as well. Think about the plight of the righty hitter for a moment: Carpenter could toss you a fastball that runs right into the nub of your bat, or he could flip a curve way in the opposite direction that just falls off the table. How do you hit that (I suppose you don’t, eh Pirates)?

Keep in mind that this was just one outing, but Chris Carpenter seemingly picked up exactly where he left off in October of 2006. He threw a cornucopia of quality offerings, befuddling batters with a bowling-ball heater and a curve worthy of Vin Scully’s “Public Enemy No. 1” designation. Don’t get too worked up, but Carpenter sure did look like his old self on Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals (on the hook for $43.5 million over the next three years) can only hope it continues.

When the Washington Nationals went on an outfield shopping spree this past offseason, the competition for playing time figured to be fierce. Adding Josh Willingham via trade and Adam Dunn via free agency to a group of fly-catchers already including Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris and Wily Mo Pena (you know you’ve gone too far when you have an excess Wily), one or two players figures to get the boot or at least be tethered to the bench.

Out of that group, the former Cincinnati Reds prospects figured to lose out. Former GM Jim Bowden acquired his previous Cincy outfielders like they were Pokemon cards (gotta have ’em all!), but Pena was coming off of a putrid season (.228 wOBA in 2008), and Kearns struggled with injuries while failing to produce much at the plate either (.287 wOBA).

While Pena has since been dismissed, Kearns (owed about $8 million for the year) stuck around. And he’s done more than just keep best buddy Dunn company in the clubhouse: manager Manny Acta has started Kearns in right field in Washington’s first two ballgames.

Setting aside the insanity of benching Dukes (quite possibly the Nationals’ all-around best position player), let’s take a look at Austin’s profile to see if he’s worth taking a flyer on.

A 6-3, 220 pound outfielder with power and swiftness afield, Kearns was taken with the 7th overall pick out of Lexington, Kentucky in the 1998 amateur draft. He reached the majors at age 22, looking well worth the investment: Kearns batted .315/.407/.500 with a .394 wOBA during his rookie season in 2002. He pulled a hamstring toward the end of the campaign (an unfortunate bit of foreshadowing), but Austin looked poised to anchor the Reds’ lineup

While that prodigious debut portended to great accomplishments, Kearns lost a big chunk of the ’03 season to rotator cuff inflammation, batting .264/.364/.455. And so began the pattern: somewhat disappointing production, coupled with a copious amount of injuries:

2004
Apr 28, 2004: Fractured left forearm, 15-day DL (retroactive to April 25th).
Jun 8, 2004: Thumb injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 2th).
Aug 24, 2004: Missed 71 games (thumb injury).
Jul 11, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (thumb injury).

.324 wOBA, .230/.321/.419 in 246 PA

2005
Jul 20, 2005: Recalled from Louisville (AAA).
Jun 12, 2005: Optioned to Louisville (AAA).

.339 wOBA, .240/.333/.452 in 448 PA

By this point, Kearns was no longer the golden boy of the Cincinnati organization. Exasperated by his inability to stay on the field, the Reds shipped Kearns to the Nats along with Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner in exchange for Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson in July of 2006. In good health for once, Kearns would actually turn in a superb all-around season in ’06, accumulating 4.1 Value Wins by playing a slick outfield and posting a .358 wOBA (.264/.363/.467 in 629 PA).

In 2007, Kearns set a career-high in plate appearances, coming to the dish 674 times. His results in the power department were underwhelming: after posting ISO’s in excess of .200 in ’05 and ’06, Kearns slipped to .145. Overall, he posted a near league-average wOBA of .337, batting .266/.355/.411. That, combined with continued flashes of leather, helped Kearns post 3.6 Value Wins.

Then came 2008. Like so many other pieces of the Nats’ offensive “attack”, Kearns’ bat flat lined on his way to a grisly .217/.311/.316 line, with a .099 ISO (it’s like he and Willie Harris switched bodies, or something). Kearns was felled by right elbow and foot injuries, sapping him of any kind of sock.

Small sample size-itis seemingly infected Washington’s front office this spring, however. While would-be stud Dukes batted .212 in a small clump of generally meaningless games played in front of elderly Floridians, Kearns slugged .581. Apparently, that was enough to re-distribute playing time in right field (sigh).

When healthy (a condition anything but assured), Kearns is by no means a bad player. In fact, with his range and solid on-base skills, he could be a nice complementary piece on a team with playoff aspirations. However, as a Nat, he’s blocking one of the organization’s offensive pillars, and his extra-base thump has waned in recent years. Most of the projection systems have Kearns pegged for a modest season with the bat:

CHONE: .252/.350/.413
Oliver: .258/.347/.427
ZiPS: .252/.351/.400

This is one of those situations where “real” and fantasy baseball might diverge: Kearns’ defensive capabilities help push him into the realm of acceptable starter. However, that matters little in most every fantasy league, as Kearns’ lumber projects to produce dime-a-dozen numbers. The 28 year-old is worth a look in deeper leagues, but that guy who looked like an offensive force back in 2002 likely won’t be reappearing.

A few quick observations from the season’s first full slate of games…

Delmon Young Rides the Pine

It’s probably best not to get too worked up over lineups on the first day of the season, but the erstwhile golden boy of Tampa Bay’s farm system found himself plastered to the Twins’ bench. Granted, Young has been exasperating to watch. He puts the ball on the ground far more than a power threat should, and he swings at anything, really: strikes, balls, curves, sliders, low-flying planes, small animals…he’s basically taken a Vladimir Guerrero-type approach with Wilton Guerrero-like results.

All that being said, Young is still just 23 years of age and holds a career .318/.362/.518 minor league line, that production have come against players several years his senior. The Twins will have to slide four guys (Cuddyer, Kubel, Span and Young) between three slots (the corner outfield and DH). Kubel will take a seat versus lefties, but it’s still a bit disconcerting to see Delmon sat down against a right-hander (Felix Hernandez). Michael Cuddyer might be making a pretty penny, but he’s 30 and holds a career .341 wOBA. Young needs to see every day at-bats.

Elijah Dukes, Justin Upton follow suit

Is Jim Bowden still secretly assailing the Nationals’ decision-making process from afar? I’m not sure how else to explain the absence of Dukes in the starting lineup. He posted a .382 wOBA in 2008, showing secondary skills aplenty and kicking in defensive value to boot. A 24 year-old who might just be your best player, and he’s not guaranteed everyday play. As Dave Cameron put it, “Happy Opening Day, Nationals fans. Hope you weren’t planning on seeing the team’s best player.”

Upton, a 21 year-old wunderkind with even more upside, also found himself drinking Gatorade and flicking sunflower seeds instead of smacking line drives. Upton hit .197 during spring training- I really hope 60 lousy AB’s in March don’t weigh too heavily in Bob Melvin’s consciousness. Upton posted a 107 OPS+ in the majors at an age where most guys are in A-Ball. Choosing Eric Byrnes over that sort of talent just seems masochistic. Scrapaholics Anonymous- the first step is admitting that you have a Byrnes problem…

Drop Lee! Drop Sabathia! Sell! Sell! Sell!

Yeah, don’t do that. Not that you really need the reminder, but don’t let anything that occurs in the next few weeks override years of knowledge acquired about a player. If you want to run your fantasy team like a Jim Kramer, “Mad-Money” style outlet, then be prepared for a John Stewart-like beat down in the standings.

The American League West is shaping up to be a battle of attrition in 2009. Sure, the Angels are coming off of a 100-win campaign, but short of a Disney revival that pulls Danny Glover, Tony Danza and Christopher Lloyd out of retirement, that’s not occurring again. With downright nefarious injuries striking the rotation and a Teixeira-less offense, LAA figures fall well short of 2008’s pace.

As such, the spread of talent in the West is not all that great: PECOTA forecasts the Athletics to take the division crown with just 84 victories, with the Angels breaking even and the Mariners (77 wins) and Rangers (70) filling out baseball’s short-stack division.

Sensing there’s no time like the present, Oakland has pulled out all the stops to contend in ’09. No doubt, the club’s farm system is in dramatically better shape than it was at this point last year (so they’re well-equipped for the long run as well). However, Matt Holliday was imported from the Rockies and the one-two prospect punch of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson will fill out a rotation worn thin by the continued health issues of nominal ace Justin Duchscherer. Starting with Anderson, let’s meet Oakland’s latest infusion of highly-regarded mound talent.

The word that has always come attached to Anderson is “polish.” Son of Oklahoma State baseball coach Frank Anderson, Brett lasted until the second round of the 2006 amateur draft due to signability concerns (according to Baseball America, he wanted $1 million) and qualms over his athleticism. A portly kid at the time, Anderson elicited mixed reviews from scouts. On the one hand, southpaws with advanced off-speed offerings (in Anderson’s case, a plus curve and changeup) are rare commodities. On the other hand…

“So what’s not to like? Scouts say it’s Anderson’s glaring lack of athleticism. He has a soft, 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame, and he has trouble fielding bunts and covering first base. Some scouts say he has the best command of any high school lefty in recent memory, while others say he may be the worst athlete taken in the first round in years.” (Baseball America’s 2006 Draft Database)

Luckily, the 100 meter sprint, pole vaulting and freestyle swimming were not added to professional baseball. But, the whole pitching thing? Anderson excelled at it like few others.

Arizona signed him for $950K, and Anderson ripped through the D-Backs’ system in his debut season in 2007. He soared with the Silver Hawks in the Low-A Midwest League, posting prodigious numbers (2.03 FIP, 9.41 K/9, 1.11 BB/9) in 81.1 innings.

Promoted to Visalia of the High-A California League, Anderson continued to chop batters down as a member of the Oaks: he whiffed 9.23 hitters per nine while walking 2.54 per nine. An elevated BABIP (.386) and some homer trouble (1.38 HR/9) pushed his FIP to 4.07, but that’s still extremely impressive for a teenager in the most perilous league for pitching prospects. In addition to the K’s and precise command, Anderson posted a 55.2 GB% for the year.

After being included in the talent haul acquired by the A’s in the Dan Haren deal, Anderson returned to the Cal league to open up 2008. He continued to dominate (9.73 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 59.7 GB% in 74 IP), earning a promotion to AA Midland. In 31 frames for the RockHounds, Anderson saw his already-impressive strikeout rate spike to 11.03 per nine, while his customarily sharp command (2.61 BB/9) and worm-burning (53.8 GB%) remained intact.

Anderson has all of 30-some frames above A-Ball, but he might just be ready to his first foray into the majors. It’s hard to find a flaw with the lefty. Does he miss bats? Check. Exhibit good control? Check. Keep the ball on the ground? Check.

The 21 year-old also backs up those exceptionally strong numbers with positive scouting reports: he won’t cause anyone to drool over his radar gun readings, but his low-90’s fastball has sink, his curve and change remain crisp, and he also mixes in a solid mid-80’s slide piece for good measure. What’s not to like? It might sound crazy, but of all of Oakland’s youthful arms, Anderson might just be the most major league-ready.