For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Oh no, Mo: Rivera was stung for 4 runs in 0.2 innings against the Rays on June 6th, before collecting saves against Tampa the next two nights. While there’s some “what’s wrong with Rivera?!” hysteria going around, the answer might simply be, not much. His 3.20 ERA looks inflated, but a .336 BABIP and a very high HR/FB rate (23.8%, compared to a 6.6% career average) portend to better days ahead. He has a 15.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio, folks. He’s okay.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria only got into one game this week (mop-up work in a 6-2 win over the Jays on the 6th), as the Royals plummet in the standings (10 losses in 11 games). Fun fact: Soria’s curve has been +2.7 runs above average in 2009 (7th among relievers), despite his throwing just 10.1 innings thus far.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan picked up two saves this week, against the Mariners on the 5th and the Athletics on the 9th. Joe’s 5.2 K/BB ratio is his highest mark since 2006, and he’s tossing a first-pitch strike 67.1 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average). He’s also jamming plenty of hitters, with a 21.7 infield/flyball percentage.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Boston’s stopper converted a save op versus the Tigers on June 4th, then pitched a scoreless inning in a losing effort against Texas on the 7th. Papelbon’s fastball (used nearly 80% of the time) hasn’t quite been the dominating offering of years past. His heater’s run value was +3.29 per 100 pitches in 2007 and +2.21 in 2008, but just +0.93 this season. Then again, an “off” year for the 28 year-old is still pretty darned good: his WPA sits at 1.57, 8th among relievers.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks gave up a run in a none-save situation vs. the Indians on the 5th, but came back to get a save the next night with a scoreless frame. Bobby has given up more dingers than one would expect (15 HR/FB%), but otherwise he has been quite good. His 3.4 K/BB ratio is well above last year’s 2.24 mark, and his contact rate is down about 6 percent from last season.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Unfortunately, Frank is still plagued by shoulder soreness. Francisco hasn’t pitched since June 3rd, making a retroactive DL stint a possibility. C.J. Wilson gets any chances that come until Francisco is mended, but his 16/12 K/BB ratio and -0.12 WPA will have you reaching for the Tums if you’re forced to turn to him.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

After issuing just 2 free passes during the entire month of May, Downs walked two in 2.1 innings this past week. He still owns a sterling 25 K’s and 4 walks in 25.1 innings, good for a 6.25 K/BB ratio that nearly triples last season’s mark.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood continues to be wild, with 2 walks in 2.1 saveless frames this past week. Unable to locate his fastball (which has gone from a +0.75 run value per 100 pitches in ’08 to a lousy -2.6 in ’09), Wood isn’t getting anyone to chase his stuff out of the zone. His 17.4 Outside-Swing% is fourth-worst among all relievers, with other control-challenged wrecks like Evan Meek and DFA’d Hayden Penn in the same neighborhood. With -0.1 WAR, Wood isn’t providing the kind of stability that the Tribe had in mind when they dished out 2 years and $20.5M on the free agent market.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes notched 3 saves this week, collecting one against the Jays on the 4th, the Tigers on the 5th and the Rays on the 9th. A .361 BABIP has done him no favors, though opponents are making contact against the former Rockie 79.5% of the time, well above any other season dating back to 2002. The increase has come primarily on pitches within the strike zone (88 Z-Contact% in 2009, compared to 80.4% in 2008; the MLB average is 87.7%).

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Luckily for fantasy owners, Bailey appears to be the man in Oakland. He picked up saves on the 7th and the 8th, and if he continues to get the call, he’ll be in “Death Grip” territory in short order. Bailey now has a 44/14 K/BB ratio in 37.1 innings, with a 2.92 FIP. The 25 year-old rookie has the stuff and strikeout potential to be an elite reliever.

George Sherrill, Orioles

George gave out a run and a walk over two appearances this week, notching a save against his former team (the Mariners) last night. Sherrill’s 3.04 BB/9 is the lowest rate of his career, though opposing hitters are increasingly making more contact with his stuff. Sherrill’s K rate, 11.04 per nine in ’07, dropped to 9.79 in ’08 and 8.37 this season. Over that same time frame, his Z-Contact rate (the contact rate on pitches within the strike zone) has jumped from 80.8 in ’07, 84.2 in ’08 and 92 in 2009. That’s the 9th-highest rate of zone contact among all relievers.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Uh oh: Rodney resembled his former wild-child self this past week. In 4 frames and five appearances, Fernando was torched for 6 runs and five walks, including 3 runs and 3 walks without getting an out versus the White Sox last night. Rodney had seemingly made strides in painting the corners, but he has located just 46.3% of his pitches within the zone during the month of June, compared to 48.8% in May and 58.7% in April.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Aardsma recovered from a bumpy 3-run fiasco on May 31st to post scoreless innings on June 3rd, 5th and 6th. He’s still asking for trouble, however, with 2 more walks in 3 innings. The chances of a guy remaining effective with a walk rate pushing six and a half are between slim and none. Selling high here would likely be the best option, unless you want to wager that Aardsma’s 87.1% strand rate (73.5% career average) and .247 BABIP (.316 career) will persist.

Morrow took baby steps toward reclaiming the ninth-inning gig, tossing 3 innings of scoreless baseball. Here’s a question: since we can pretty much rule out a return to the rotation for the former Cal star, would it be best for the M’s to leave Morrow where he is, soaking up a few innings at a time (4 of his last 6 relief appearances have gone 2 or more innings)? Why can’t Morrow become a Tekulve-like bullpen arm, going 2-3 innings every few days?

Update: Um, scratch that. Apparently, Morrow WILL go back to the rotation. Tune in tomorrow for the next episode of “As the Morrow Turns.”

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

So, who’s the guy here? Howell picked up a save against the Royals on June 4th, and he’s by far the most intriguing option. J.P. has K’d 11.1 batters per nine innings, with a 2.37 FIP. Southpaw specialist Choate also picked up a save, but he likely isn’t a serious contender. Howell is the most talented guy, but might he be better utilized in his customary 4 and 5 out appearances than in a strict, rigid 9th inning role?

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

It’s something of an upset when a batter makes contact against Big Jon these days, and downright stunning when the opposition actually plates a run. Broxton coughed a run against the Padres last night, but still tallied the save (his 14th). He struck out 7 hitters in three innings this week, taking his astronomical K rate up to 14.7. For reference, that’s nearly 2 whiffs per nine innings higher than second-place Matt Thornton.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was a little wild this week, with 3 walks in 4 innings, but he locked up two more saves and punched out 5 batters as well. Bell has yet to give up a dinger in 25.1 innings (Thanks, PETCO!), and opponents have just a 13.8% line drive rate against San Diego’s stopper. Bell has a career-best 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings, the 8th-highest rate among relievers.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod chucked 3 scoreless innings this week, picking up two saves along the way. His 2.28 WPA trails only Broxton among all relievers, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.5%) is at its lowest rate since 2004. Rodriguez is generating a boatload of flyballs (52.2 FB%), but he’s also jamming plenty of batters with a career-high 20% infield/flyball rate.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

We’re now well into June, and Hoffman has still yet to give up a run in his Milwaukee threads. That’s 17 innings, for those of you scoring at home. His K/BB ratio is 15/1. A .175 BABIP and zero homers allowed help explain part of the run, but he’s also been pretty damned good. You could make the argument that his revered changeup has never been better, with a run value of +7.02 runs per 100 pitches (his best mark on record since 2002).

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls’ forearm tightness appears to be a little more troublesome than once thought. Said Qualls, “I don’t think it’s going to be something that’s going to just heal overnight.” If he has to miss any significant amount of time, either Tony Pena (3.07 FIP) or Juan Gutierrez (2.60) would likely get the call.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Just when it looked like Lidge was getting back on track, he blows back-to-back games against the Dodgers on June 5th and 6th (1.2 IP, 3 R) and then hits the DL with continued knee problems. It’s the same knee that Lidge had surgery on during the offseason.

With Lights Out knocked out, Madson will take the reins in Philly. His qualifications couldn’t be much stronger: the 6-6 righty has punched out 31 hitters in 28.1 frames and holds a 1.03 WPA. Madson sustained a spike in velocity from last summer, averaging a scorching 95 MPH with the pitch and backing it up with a devastating 83 MPH change as well as a 90 MPH cutter. Opponents are making contact with 78.2% of pitches thrown by Madson within the strike zone, one of the lowest rates among relievers, and his 33.5 Outside-Swing% ranks in the top 10 among ‘pen arms. If he’s available in your league? Run, don’t walk, to the waiver wire.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero chucked four scoreless frames this week, though only one came in a save opportunity. He has still yet to serve up a long ball in 26 innings. Cordero’s whiff rate is down for a third straight season (12.22 K/9 in 2007, 9.98 in 2008, 8.31 in 2009), and hitters are making contact at Coco’s offerings 76.2% of the time (the highest rate we have going back to 2002). On the positive side, a lot of that increased contact is coming on pitcher’s pitches thrown outside of the strike zone: his contact rate on pitches in the zone is largely unchanged, while his outside-contact% has spiked over the past three years (35.1% in ’07, 53.9 in ’08, 62.3 in ’09).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected a save against the Astros on June 6th, but that was the extent of his work for the week as the Pirates drop four of their last five contests. Exhibit A of why velocity isn’t everything for a pitcher: Capps’s fastball is cracking the radar gun at a career-best 93.3 MPH, but his run value with the pitch is at a career-worst +0.46 (1.73 in 2008 and 2.22 in 2007).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street racked up back-to-back saves on June 8th (Cardinals) and 9th (Brewers), taking him up to 10 for the season. Huston’s 3.57 K/BB is well above last year’s pace (2.56). His fastball has been roasted (-1.41 runs per 100 pitches), but his oft-utilized slider (+3.44) and re-emphasized changeup (+2.23) are getting the job done.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins tossed two innings this week, with a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against Pittsburgh on the 6th and a 1 inning, 1 run appearance against the Cubs the following night while picking up the save. Overall, it’s hard to quibble with Hawkins’ work while filling in for Valverde. He has nearly a K per inning (23 in 24.2 frames), and his emphasis on a high-80’s cutter/slider has been wise. The pitch has been worth +2.43 runs per 100 pitches.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin made just one appearance this week, tossing a scoreless frame in mop-up duty against the Rockies on June 7th. The former Mariner, Phillie and Red has a 16/5 K/BB ratio in 22 innings, with 13 saves in 14 chances. A .178 BABIP suggests that his tiny 1.23 ERA will rise in the coming months.

Brian Wilson, Giants

San Fran’s mohawked stopper hasn’t surrendered a run since May 21st, a stretch of 7.1 innings in which he has punched out 8 batters but also walked four. Wilson’s walk rate is up for the third straight season (2.66 BB/9 in ’07, 4.04 in ’08, 4.23 in ’09), and his First-Pitch Strike% is down for the third consecutive campaign (61.3, 57.7, 55.4; the MLB average is 57.9). Wilson’s WPA checks in at a tepid -0.72.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano picked up the save last evening versus the Pirates, running his scoreless innings streak up to 10.2 in the process. Like it or not, Braves skipper Bobby Cox continues to use his two relief aces in situations that best call for their skills, be that the 8th or 9th frame of the ballgame. With lefty Nyjer Morgan, switch-hitter Delywyn Young and southpaw Adam LaRoche due up, Cox called upon Gonzalez in the 8th inning. Gonzo hasn’t shown any sort of platoon split during his career (he has actually been somewhat better vs. RHB), but Morgan (career .566 OPS vs. LHP) and LaRoche (.749) have.

Gonzalez (8 saves) and Soriano (5) will likely continue this time-share for the rest of the year. It might be frustrating to fantasy owners, but it’s probably what’s best for the Braves.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom hacked up 2 runs and 2 walks against the Giants on June 6th, then picked up a W in a 4-3 contest with the Cardinals last night. His bread-and-butter heater has been worth -0.84 runs per 100 pitches, a marked dip from the +1.08 mark posted in 2008. With Lindstrom showing such poor control, opponents are smartly laying off his pitches (41 Swing Percentage, 10 percent lower than last year).

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Well, Hanrahan has apparently been booted from the closer role for what feels like the tenth time this season. Taking his place will be MacDougal, he of frequent injuries and a career walk rate of 4.58 per nine innings. The lanky right-hander has handed out 9 walks in 9 frames for the Nats. He’s pretty darned similar to Hanrahan from a performance standpoint, possessing tantalizing mid-90’s heat but generally having no idea where it’s headed.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

By all accounts, Gregg is turning in a mediocre first season with the Cubs. The erstwhile Marlin is fooling his fair share of batters (9.95 K/9), but his walk rate is still over four and a half, with a 5.12 FIP and a WPA barely in the black (0.07).

Fortunately for Gregg, his control looks downright Maddux-esque compared to that of his set-up man. With a wicked (if wild) slider, Marmol has long made hitters look goofy. But his K rate is down for a third year (12.56 in ’07, 11.75 in ’08, 9.67 in ’09), and his walk rate has devolved from troublesome to untenable (27 free passes in 27 innings).

With the 8th and 9th inning dudes scuffling and the Cubbies bullpen doing sloppy work in general (27th in reliever FIP), could Guzman sneak his way into the competition? The perennial Venezuelan prospect has avoided the trainer’s table for a change, and he’s dealing: 25 whiffs and 8 walks in 27.2 innings. Blessed with mid-90’s gas and a devilish slider of his own, the 27 year-old bears watching. Guzman leads Chicago’s ‘pen arms in FIP and WPA.

Stock Up

Shin-Soo Choo, Indians

Pilfered from the Mariners in the summer of 2006 for the low, low price of Ben Broussard (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, too? You’re the best, Mr. Bavasi!), Choo is quietly raking in Cleveland. The 26 year-old South Korean hit a searing .309/.397/.549 (.402 wOBA) in 2008, and he has followed that up with a .298/.410/.468 line (.398 wOBA) in 2009. Mr. Choo is drawing walks at a 15.3% clip, the 17th-highest rate among qualified batters. He might not show a whole lot of sock versus southpaws (career .387 SLG% vs. LHP), but Choo crushes righties (.515).

Jon Lester, Red Sox

Lester’s early season “struggles” appeared to be more the product of poor luck on balls in play and a sky-high HR/FB rate, and sure enough, the 25 year-old lefty has been dealing lately. Lester punched out 12 batters versus the Blue Jays on May 31st, and followed that up with 11 whiffs against the Rangers on June 6th. His K rate sits at a whopping 10.29 per nine innings, 5th among starting pitchers. Jon’s 89 MPH cutter has been devastating, with a +2.22 run value per 100 pitches.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Jackson’s improvement from strong-armed enigma to polished pitcher has been stunning. His K/BB ratio, just 1.4 last season, is up to 3.26. His FIP (3.10) is boosted by a low HR rate (0.54 per nine innings), but his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, BB’s, and a normalized HR/FB rate) is a still-solid 4.35. Jackson has been getting it done with a 94 MPH heater (+1.42 runs per 100 pitches), an 86 MPH slider (+1.33) and the rare 85.5 MPH changeup (+0.78).

Andy LaRoche, Pirates

All of the sudden, Andy looks an awful lot like the highly-touted youngster the Pirates thought they were receiving last summer. His introduction to the ‘Burgh was turbulent, but the former Dodgers prospect is batting .301/.372/.420, with a .356 wOBA. LaRoche will likely never be a huge over-the-fence threat, but his combination of plate discipline and doubles power could prove mighty valuable to the Bucs.

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

Floyd has been on a roll, with 31 K’s and 7 runs allowed in his last 29.2 innings. While Gavin’s ERA far surpassed his peripherals in 2008, it’s been the opposite story in 2009. Floyd’s ERA sits at an abominable 5.35, but his FIP is pretty good at 3.91. The 26 year-old righty has increased his strikeout rate from 6.32 to 8.03, though he hasn’t hit his spots as well (3.77 BB/9 in 2009, 3.05 in 2008).

Stock Down

Wandy Rodriguez, Astros

Wandy has been bushwhacked over his past three starts, coughing up 18 runs in 13.2 frames. After giving up just one round-tripper during his first 11 starts, Rodriguez was taken deep on four occasions against the Rockies on June 4th. His numbers for the year are still solid (3.15 FIP, 8.55 K/9), but his vaunted curveball was absolutely crushed against Colorado (-3.1 runs for the evening).

CC Sabathia, Yankees

A less-than-optimal CC is still better than 95% of the pitchers in the majors, but New York’s new ace hasn’t quite been himself in 2009. CC’s K rate checks in at just 6.38 per nine innings, down considerably from his 8.93 mark in 2008 and his 7.5 career average. Opposing batters aren’t fishing at Sabathia’s sliders and changeups off the plate, with a 26.1 Outside-Swing% that’s nearly 6 percent lower than in 2008. Again, he’s been pretty darned good (3.76 FIP), and if he were just about any hurler, we’d all be saying he was turning in a nice season. It’s just that we have come to expect greatness from Sabathia.

Corey Hart, Brewers

Hart’s three-year slide continues. After posting a .380 wOBA in 2007, the lanky, tattooed right fielder posted a .327 mark in 2008 and just .309 this season. Over that same time period, Hart’s ISO has plummeted from .244 in ’07 to .191 in 2008 and just .150 in 2009. Hart isn’t chasing as many pitches off the plate this season (24.8 O-Swing%, compared to 31.7% last year), but he’s also whiffing at a career-high 27.2% clip with a career-worst contact rate (71.5%; 80.6% MLB average).

Manny Parra, Brewers

Coming off of a 2008 season in which he struck out 7.86 batters per nine innings with a 4.16 FIP, Parra looked like an intriguing, covert pitcher to target. Unfortunately, his already-scattershot control has taken another step backward: after issuing 4.07 BB/9 in ’08, the 26 year-old port-sider has walked 5.43 per nine innings in 2009. Only Fausto Carmona (currently plying his trade in Rookie Ball) has a higher rate of free passes among starters.

Bengie Molina, Giants

What happens when a guy who never walks doesn’t have those base hits fall in? Just ask the eldest Molina brother. Bengie enjoyed a piping hot April (.913 OPS and a .328 BABIP), but he fell apart in May (.559 OPS, .189 BABIP) and is off the a rough start in June (.606 OPS). Molina makes plenty of contact and he has ample pop for a backstop, but batting average-dependent players can go through stretches like this. When the hits aren’t falling, there’s nothing to fall back on.

Remember Kelvim Escobar? The last time the Venezuelan and his expansive arsenal of pitches took a big league mound was September 29, 2007 against the Oakland A’s. Escobar picked up the win that day (his 18th of the year), a fitting end to his finest season in the rotation. Escobar posted a tidy 3.39 FIP, befuddling batters with any of his six pitches. Unfortunately, Kelvim was damaged goods by that point. Shoulder surgery wiped out his entire 2008 campaign.

After continuing his rehab during the first two months of the 2009 season, Escobar was back on the bump last night against the Detroit Tigers. While the now-33 year-old righty came up on the short end against a rapidly improving Edwin Jackson, Escobar’s stuff was not lacking.

According to 2007 pitch data, Escobar kept hitters up at night wondering whether they would get his 94 MPH fastball (thrown 51.7% of the time). Or his 86 MPH slider (11.3%). Or 88 MPH cutter (4.1%), 81 MPH curve (9%), 85 MPH changeup (12.5%), or 87 MPH splitter (11.4%). You get the point: he had plenty of tricks in his bag.

Courtesy of the Brooks Baseball Pitch F/X Tool (an amazing resource that slices and dices Pitch F/X data for each appearance), we can take a gander at what a post-surgical Escobar offered the Tigers. According to Pitch F/X, he displayed a 93.9 MPH heater (thrown on 55 of his 92 pitches, or 59.8%), an 84 MPH changeup (32.6%) and a 78.7 MPH curveball (7.6%). In all probability, the Pitch F/X algorithm classified some splitters as changeups and some sliders as curves, but this gives us a decent idea of what he had last night.

Working 5 innings, Escobar punched out 5 batters while showing a highly consistent release point (graph from Brooks Baseball):

However, he also struggled to hit his spots, issuing 4 free passes and tossing 51 of his 92 pitches for strikes (55.4%). Escobar’s hopping fastball had 5.18 inches of horizontal movement in on the hands of righty batters, with 10.28 inches of vertical break compared to a pitch thrown without spin. For reference, the average righty fastball in 2009 has shown 6 inches of tailing action and 8.8 inches of vertical break. Maxing out at 95.5 MPH, Escobar tossed his fastball for a strike 32 out of 55 times (58.2%).

Escobar’s changeup showed similar horizontal movement to his fastball, while dropping a little more than 2 inches further in the zone. His control of the pitch came and went, as he tossed 16 of 30 for a strike (53.3%). Judging from this movement graph, Escobar threw a handful of splitters, with nearly a half-foot of difference in vertical drop compared to his fastball (similar to his numbers from 2007):

Escobar didn’t throw many breaking pitches, with 3 of his 7 breaking balls going for a strike (42.9%). The pitch didn’t show very much horizontal break (0.7 inches away from righty batters), with about three and a half inches of vertical drop.

Overall, the Angels and fantasy owners have to be pretty pleased with Escobar’s first outing. While subsequent starts will tells us whether or not he can sustain his stuff, Kelvim’s fastball showed plenty of bite. His changeup and splitter displayed similar movement and velocity to his 2007 campaign, if not the same level of control and command. That’s a big plus, given that those off-speed pitches play a prominent role in his pitch selection: while Escobar’s fastball has been worth -0.80 runs per 100 pitches since the 2002 season, his change (+2.02) and splitter (+2.40) have often left opponents looking silly. If Escobar happens to be available in your league, snatch him up. It’s anyone’s guess if he can remain healthy, but his stuff has come off the operating table none the worse for wear.

The Oakland Athletics are in a state of turmoil. The denizens of the Coliseum growing uneasy: the A’s are lackluster in the batter’s box (last in team wOBA), and in the starting rotation (25th in FIP, as a talented group of rookies take their lumps). With Oakland in need of a hero, Josh Outman has come to the rescue.

A 24 year-old southpaw known for his strange, superhuman mechanics in high school, Outman’s origins take us to Central Missouri State. Plying his trade for the Division II Mules, he was selected in the 10th round of the 2005 amateur draft by the Phillies. Outman proved to be a bargain at that spot, displaying unmatched feats of strength for Team USA in the 2007 World Cup by punching out 10 during a gold medal run.

Equipped with a sizzling low-90’s fastball, an at-times nasty slider and a changeup, Outman oscillated between the rotation and the ‘pen. He often overmatched his opponents (career 8.7 K/9 in the minors), but walks were his kryptonite (4.3 BB/9). The Phillies, desperate for a starter, parted with Outman (as well as middle infield prospect Adrian Cardenas and OF/1B Matthew Spencer) in order to acquire Joe Blanton last summer.

The 6-1, 190 pounder made 6 appearances (4 starts) for the A’s after that swap, posting a 3.33 FIP. In 2009, Outman has compiled a mighty 3.02 ERA in 11 appearances (9 starts). So, will Outman continue to save the troubled city of Oakland, or will his powers evaporate?

Showcasing a deep repertoire (a 93 MPH fastball, 82 MPH slider, 77 MPH curve and an 82 MPH changeup), Outman has punched out 7.04 batters per nine innings. His control, while not poor, is still occasionally a problem (3.69 BB/9, with 47.7% of his pitches catching the plate; the MLB average is 49.1%).

An extreme flyball pitcher (34 GB%), Outman has surrendered 1.17 homers per nine innings, and he has benefitted from a .242 BABIP. While his ERA looks outstanding, his FIP checks in at a useful-but-not-superhuman 4.50.

While he’s not likely to continue posting an ERA in the low-three’s, there’s a good deal to like about Outman. A lefty who cooks on an open flame, Outman also possesses two quality offspeed offerings: his slider has been worth a superb +4.70 runs per 100 pitches, while his changeup has been +1.42 runs per 100 tosses.

Outman could stand to hit his spots more consistently, but his current package of skills makes him an intriguing pickup in all formats. He’s not this good, but Outman would garner more attention on a club that didn’t have such an embarrassment of mound talent. Perhaps he’s not the hero, but Josh is a worthy member of Oakland’s League of Extraordinary Pitching Prospects.

Los Angeles Dodgers backstop Russell Martin is in the midst of one serious power outage. The last time Martin went deep? Try September 26th, 2008 against the San Francisco Giants. While the 26 year-old Canadian has never been known for possessing immense strength in the batter’s box, he did reach the double-digits in dingers in each of his first three seasons in the majors.

Making his big league debut back in 2006, Martin slugged .436, with a .154 Isolated Power and 10 home runs in 468 plate appearances. The following year, he popped 19 homers in 620 plate appearances. Martin slugged .469, and his .176 ISO placed 4th among qualifying catchers.

In 2008, Martin took a step back in the power department, with a .116 ISO, a .396 slugging percentage and 13 jacks in 650 plate appearances. While that output seemed disappointing given his work the previous season, it looks downright Josh Gibson-like compared to his tepid line in 2009.

With a microscopic .050 ISO, Martin bests only San Francisco’s Emmanuel Burriss among qualified hitters. He’s shown less punch than Emilio Bonifacio (.053 ISO), Jason Kendall (.053) and Luis Castillo (.054), for crying out loud. Martin’s eye remains sharp (13.9 BB%), but the utter lack of extra-base hits has sapped his offensive value. After posting a .368 wOBA in 2007, Martin has seen that figure dip to .351 in 2008 and just .321 this season.

So, what in the name of Vin Scully is going on here? Since that high-water mark back in ’07, Martin has increasingly become more of a groundball-oriented batter:

2007: 48.4 GB%, 1.42 GB/FB ratio
2008: 51.1 GB%, 1.73 GB/FB
2009: 52.8 GB%, 2.03 GB/FB

When Martin broke into the big leagues, he was an exceptionally athletic catcher. In many respects, the converted third baseman resembled an early-career version of Jason Kendall: he had on-base skills, some degree of lightning in his bat, and was surprisingly fleet of foot. Martin posted a Speed Score of 5.3 as a rookie in 2006, and a 5.2 mark in 2007 (the major league average hovers around 5.1 to 5.2). In 2008, that mark fell to 4.0, and sits at just 3.6 in 2009.

So, Martin is chopping the ball into the dirt with greater frequency, while not showing the same set of wheels that he possessed a few seasons back. Martin’s speed did not manifest itself on groundballs hit during the 2006 campaign (.199 batting average on grounders, compared to the .234 N.L. average), but he beat out quite a few worm-killers in 2007 (.275 AVG on groundballs; .245 NL average) and 2008 (.281 for Russell, .231 NL average). This season, Martin has a .240 average on grounders, while hitting them at the highest rate of his career (.236 NL average).

Donning the tools of ignorance, Martin’s body takes a beating each and every night he squats behind home plate. Despite his relative youth, LA’s catcher is closing in on 4,000 career innings at the position, with 459 games under his belt.

That’s quite the workload. According to Baseball-Reference, Martin is one of only four catchers 26 years old or younger to appear in 400+ games during the first three seasons of his career (Kendall is also on the list). Kendall, you’ll recall, saw his power peak in his mid-20’s (with slugging percentages of .473, .511 and .470 from ages 24-26 during the 1999-2001 seasons). Since then, he has topped the .400 mark just once. His Speed Scores followed a similar arc to Martin’s: downright blazing in ’99 (7.3 Speed Score), Kendall was down to the four range by 2001, and dipped into the three’s by the time 2003 rolled around. His groundball rates increased as well.

None of this is to say Martin is doomed; Kendall turned in a couple of valuable seasons in 2003 and 2004 with a similarly keen batting eye. Also, his loss of speed could have been influenced by a nasty ankle injury suffered in ’99 on top of the heavy workload as a youngster. But the two do share some interesting similarities, in terms of being abnormally agile for the position, enduring a heavy workload at a young age, and subsequently losing that extra gear on the wheels. Martin is just entering what are typically the peak years of a player’s career, but might we have seen his best already?

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

How dominant has Broxton been this season? Let’s count the ways:

– His FIP checks in at a subatomic 1.27
– His strikeout rate (14.19 K/9) would be pretty good if cut in half
– Broxton’s slider deserves its own “Chuck Norris facts” page: the wicked high-80’s offering has been worth +5.1 runs per 100 pitches.

Yeah, he’s pretty good.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath actually looked mortal this week, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs while blowing a save against the Rockies on May 30th. His K/BB ratio still comes in at 26/6 for the year, with a 1.17 WPA. Interestingly, Bell’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has decreased every season since 2005, from 60.9% that year to just 46.2% in 2009 (49% MLB average). However, his Outside Swing% is also at an all-time high of 30.2% this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Frankie gave up 1 run in 3 innings of work this week, punching out 6 batters in the process but only getting one save. Rodriguez’s fastball (+0.76 runs per 100 pitches), curve (+1.31) and change (+3.89) have all been effective in his first campaign in Queens.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls took some time off this week due to forearm tightness, missing four games. The club isn’t said to be deeply concerned. Qualls notched a save against the Braves on May 28th before the forearm started barking.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman enters “Death Grip” real estate, as he has been better in Milwaukee than just about anyone could have hoped for. With two clean saves this week, the longtime Padre now has a 15-inning scoreless streak going. The wacky .175 BABIP and 0.0 HR/FB% just won’t continue, but it’s hard to argue with a 14/1 K/BB ratio. Hoffman’s modest mid-80’s heater (+4.35 runs per 100 pitches), slider (+3.47) and changeup (+6.47) are firing on all cylinders.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

After surrendering a stunning 13 runs in 10 innings from May 5th to the 24th, Lidge is beginning to make amends with five scoreless appearances and five saves since. The Notre Dame product has a 5/1 K/BB ratio during that stretch, and his velocity is trending up (the right-hand portion of the graph is 2009):

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made only one appearance this week, with a save against the Cardinals on June 1st. After issuing 4.86 BB/9 last season, Cincy’s closer has walked 2.86 per nine innings in 2009. Perhaps that has something to do with his pitch selection: after tossing a slider 37.3% of the time in 2008 and featuring his fastball just 52%, Cordero has reduced his slider usage to 21.6% in 2009 with a big bump in heaters (68.4%).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps received just about the best news possible after nearly having his arm torn off by a Geovany Soto line drive: he just had a really nasty bruise. Instead of hitting the DL, the 255 pound right-hander collected 3 saves (one against Houston on May 30th and two against the Mets on June 1st and 2nd). The saves against New York came without a walk, good news considering his prior control issues. Capps has located 53.1% of his pitches within the strike zone. That’s still 4 percent above the league average, but it’s also a far cry from his 59.5% career average.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin worked 3.1 innings this week, with two saves, one walk and a K. Considering that his FIP (3.73) is leaps and bounds above his ERA (1.29), Franklin seems like a good candidate to regress. On the positive side, his 80.7% contact rate is just around the major league average, and is his lowest mark we have on record going back to 2002.

Huston Street, Rockies

Huston had an up-and-down week. He worked a scoreless inning vs. the Dodgers on May 27th, then picked up a save against the Padres on the 29th. Unfortunately, he gave up a run the following night against San Diego, then blew a save against the Astros last night while issuing 2 walks. However, Street has done a nice job for the most part (24/7 K/BB ratio in 22.1 IP), and it’s not as though the Rockies are rife with possible replacements.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson is back on his feet following a nasty run of appearances in the middle of May (7 runs from May 14th to the 21st). He has 4 scoreless innings to his name since then, with 3 saves and zero walks allowed. Opponents have typically chased very few of Wilson’s pitches out of the strike zone (18.7% career), but he got them to offer at 36.8% of such pitches this past week.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins closed the door versus the Bucs on May 31st and the Rockies on June 1st, then tossed another scoreless frame against Colorado the following night. His 2.75 K/BB ratio is his best mark since 2004, and his hard slider/cutter has been worth +3.22 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Hawkins has increased the usage of the pitch, from 19.7% in ’09 to 27.1% this year.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

With 12.52 K/9, Gonzalez is mowing down hitters at the highest rate of his career. He still gives Bobby Cox heartburn some nights, though, with 4.3 BB/9. Soriano, meanwhile, has also used his fastball/slider combo to good effect (12.17 K/9, 3.04 BB/9). Per FIP (Soriano 2.14, Gonzo 3.07) and WPA (Soriano 1.69, Gonzalez 0.51), Rafael has been the better option.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom remains on precarious ground, with a ghastly 22/17 K/BB ratio in 21.2 IP. His blistering mid-to-high 90’s fastball was worth +1.08 runs per 100 pitches last year, but that number has dipped all the way to -1.15 in 2009. Lindstrom’s loss of the strike zone is a continuation of a troubling three-year trend:

2007: 2.82 BB/9, 54.0 Zone% (% of pitches in strike zone)
2008: 4.08 BB/9, 51.5 Zone%
2009: 7.06 BB/9, 48.3 Zone%

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Is there a less relevant fantasy position than Nationals closer? It’s sort of like the baseball version of the Indianapolis Colts punter; someone is ostensibly paid to do the job, we just never see him. With a -64 run differential and a 14-36 record, there just aren’t that many chances. The recently activated MacDougal could also work his way into this jumble of relievers, which holds an abysmal -5.67 team WPA (last in the majors).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg was smacked around yet again last night, coughing up 2 runs and blowing a save against the Braves. Like Lindstrom, Gregg just continues to see his control erode:

2006: 2.41 BB/9, 53.1 Zone%
2007: 4.29 BB/9, 50.4 Zone%
2008: 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 Zone%
2009: 5.24 BB/9, 43.7 Zone%

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo was two-for-two in save chances this past week, slamming the door on Cleveland on May 29th and June 1st. Rivera’s K/BB ratio sits at an absurd 26/1, and he’s climbing up the WPA leader board (15th at the moment, despite an inflated .313 BABIP and 27.8 HR/FB rate).

Joakim Soria, Royals

The Mexicutioner returns, and not a moment too soon for Kansas City fans, whose faces turned royal blue while watching Juan Cruz back himself into a corner on a nightly basis. Soria’s shoulder bears close monitoring, but he returns to a line that includes a 2.24 FIP and 10 K’s in 8.2 innings.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan was a busy man this week, logging three saves against three different opponents (Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland). He struck out 4 batters in 3.1 frames, and he hasn’t surrendered a run since May 15th ( a stretch of six innings). His K/BB ratio is back up to a sterling 4.40, and he’s tossing a first pitch strike 66.3% of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Uncharacteristically wild to begin the year, Papelbon allayed some panic-stricken Sox faithful with 4 K’s and no free passes in 2 innings this past week. If Papelbon can hit his spots more consistently, his career-low 46.1 opponent Swing% will increase.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks picked up two saves against the scuffling Royals on May 30th and 31st. He’s throwing his fastball nearly 2 MPH faster than last season (95.3 MPH, compared to 93.8 in ’08), but with less effectiveness (-0.66 runs per 100 pitches; +1.55 in 2008). Conversely, his slider (+3.59 per 100 pitches) and curveball (+4.19) are giving batters fits.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco collected a save on May 29th, before suffering his first loss of the season on the 31st while finally giving up a run. Frank’s scoreless appearances streak reached 17 before the A’s got to him, and his K/BB ratio sits at 19/5 for the year. His mid-80’s splitter has been a devastating pitch, with a run value of +4.67 per 100 pitches for the season.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a W against the Rays on May 28th and a save versus the Yankees on the 31st. Woody was wild early on, but he has issued only 1 walk in his last 4 innings. That’s not some world-beating stretch, but it certainly bests his 5-walk, two inning streak from May 17th to the 20th. Wood’s WPA sits at -0.33 for the season.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs blew a save versus the O’s on May 27th, but he recovered to notch two against Boston on the 29th and 30th. He’s done an excellent job in getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate, with a 33.3 Outside-Swing% (24.5% MLB average). That helps explain how Downs has a microscopic walk rate (0.78 BB/9) despite locating just 45.1% of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney hasn’t allowed a run to cross home plate on his watch since May 10th, a streak of 9 innings in which he has racked up 4 saves while issuing just two walks. Unable to hit the broad side of a barn in 2008 (6.69 BB/9), Rodney has issued 2.57 BB/9 in ’09 while generating groundballs at a 54.2% clip. His fastball, long thrown with plus velocity but little effectiveness (-0.45 runs per 100 pitches during his career), has been worth +2.09 runs per 100 tosses this season. His nasty changeup/splitter checks in at +2.89 per 100 pitches to boot.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was generally effective during the month of May (converting 8 saves), but he ended on a sour note with a 3-run, 3-hit blown save against Seattle on the 30th. He’s whiffing 9.16 hitters per nine with 2.89 BB/9, but a .373 BABIP has put a damper on Fuentes’ numbers. There are some concerning signs, though: his 80.7% contact rate is over 5 percent higher than any other season we have dating back to 2002, and his sweeping curveball has been lacking. The pitch was worth +6.27 runs per 100 pitches in 2007, -1.79 in 2008 and -2.70 this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Streaking Sherrill: Baltimore’s stopper is sad to see the calendar flip to June, as he went on a May tear. The 32 year-old southpaw allowed just a single run in 11 frames, and he’s currently on an 11-inning scoreless streak with a perfect frame against the Mariners on June 1st. Typically wild (career 4.43 BB/9, 5.57 BB/9 in 2008), Sherrill has given up 2.91 walks per nine innings in 2009.

Watch Your Back

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Ziegler (3.25 FIP, 66.2 GB%) hasn’t been bad, but Bailey has been a revelation out of the ‘pen for the A’s in 2009. Armed with low-90’s heat, a high-80’s cutter that saws off bats and a mid-70’s curve, Bailey has punched out 38 hitters in 32.1 innings. Batters have made contact with just 66.2% of his pitches, which ranks 5th among relievers. It’s not entirely clear who will get the 9th inning call on any given night, but owners have to be rooting for Bailey, given his strikeout potential.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

The law of averages caught up with Aardsma on May 31st, as he was rocked for 3 runs in 0.2 innings against the Angels, dishing out four walks in the process. His ERA (2.13) might look impressive, but Aardsma is walking a disturbing 6.39 batters per nine innings. It’s near impossible to remain effective while putting one’s self in jams so frequently. So far, a .236 BABIP and the highest strand rate of his career (85.4%) have allowed for the Houdini act, but Aardsma could be in for a rough go of it in the months to come.

Morrow, meanwhile, isn’t exactly buttressing his case to get the closer’s role back. He made just one appearance this week, coughing up 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk to the A’s on May 30th. Morrow’s K/BB ratio sits at an ugly 18/14 in 15.1 IP.

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

It’s tough to get a read on Tampa’s situation. Howell (2.30 FIP) has certainly been the best of the bunch, but Rays manager Joe Maddon would likely rather keep the former starter available for multi-inning appearances. Izzy is having an awkward introduction in Tampa, with 5 walks in 5.2 innings. Cormier has a 2.19 ERA, but that figure is at least somewhat the product of a .243 BABIP and a very low homer rate. Your guess is as good as mine here.

Stock Up

Justin Upton, Diamondbacks

21 year-olds aren’t supposed to go all Barry Bonds on the league, but Upton now holds a scalding .329/.404/.606 line with a .434 wOBA that places ninth among major league hitters. The .329 average likely won’t persist- Upton is still whiffing frequently (27.6% of his AB’s) and his BABIP sits at .412- but I’m nitpicking. He’s working the count well (11 BB%) and beating the bejesus out of the baseball (.276 Isolated Power). Upton is dominating at the highest level, yet he’s younger than some guys who will go in the first round of this month’s amateur draft. Suffice it to say, he’s among some exclusive, rarified company.

Nelson Cruz, Rangers

Last fall, I examined Cruz’s crushing of PCL pitching and its ramifications for his career prospects. Regarding his Jake Fox-like reign of terror in the high minors and his equally impressive work in a small sample for Texas last summer, I said: “Cruz has his uses on a major league roster as a power bat, but keep in mind that he’s a 28 year-old minor league slugger, not a hot young prospect. Don’t be fooled by that small sample size.”

So far, I can file that one in the “D’oh!” department. Formerly of the A’s and Brewers organizations, Cruz has translated his “Hulk Smash” act to the majors, with a .410 wOBA. His control of the strike zone isn’t impeccable, but there’s nothing wrong with drawing a free pass 9.6% of the time with a 24% strikeout rate. His ISO is nearing .300, to boot (.296). Cruz has seen fastballs just 53 percent of the time (one of the lowest rates in the bigs), but evidently he’s doing just fine against breaking stuff, thank you very much.

Even taking the cozy environs of Arlington into account, Cruz has been a stud: with 11.9 Batting Runs (park-adjusted), he ranks 13th among outfielders. Throw in 9 steals in 10 tries, and you have a guy who’s looking anything but a minor league mirage.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Pavano has been the butt of countless jokes for his fruitless Yankee tenure and propensity to turn his training room visits into an episode of House, but let’s give the man some credit. As Dave Cameron has pointed out, Pavano’s FIP (3.78) is far better than his 5.29 ERA. Carl is punching out 7.14 batters per nine innings, his highest rate since 2001 with the Expos, and he holds a 29.5 Outside-Swing% (by far his highest since 2002, and five percent above the league average).

Randy Wolf, Dodgers

The Wolf-Man inked a 1-year, $5 million deal with L.A. this winter, with performance incentives based on innings pitched. With 1.2 WAR, Wolf has already provided $5.3M in value for the Dodgers. His 2.85 K/BB ratio (7.36 K/9, 2.58 BB/9) is his highest since 2001 with the Phillies. The 2.84 ERA is something of a misnomer- his FIP is 3.88- but Wolf has still been one of the best free agent signings of the off-season.

Luke Scott, Orioles

Having recovered from a bum shoulder that put him on the DL, Scott cracked 6 homers in a four-game span from May 27th to the 30th. Posting a 1.479 OPS during an abbreviated month of May, Scott now holds a blistering .445 wOBA for the season, with 11 taters in 133 PA. The O’s are an awfully interesting club, what with their collection of blue-chip talent, but contention certainly isn’t in the cards in ’09. The soon-to-be 31 year-old Scott could do wonders for an Atlanta outfield that holds a collective .291 wOBA (dead-last in the majors).

Stock Down

Shairon Martis, Nationals

Martis racked up five early wins despite mediocre peripherals, but things have quickly gone south for the former Dutch ace. Martis isn’t fooling much of anyone (4.06 K/9, 6th-lowest among qualified starters) and isn’t painting the corners (3.59 BB/9). The result is a 5.14 FIP. The 22 year-old is one of many Nats starters who put the ball in play often, a problem given Washington’s wretched fielding. Nationals starters rank 26th in K/9, behind a defensive unit that ranks last the in the majors in UZR/150.

Ervin Santana, Angels

No sweeping conclusions can be derived from 4 starts and 18 innings of pitching, but Santana’s return from an elbow ailment has been an unhappy one. After two passable starts against the Red Sox and Mariners, Santana was taken to the woodshed by the light-hitting White Sox (1 IP, 7 R on the 25th), and his second start against the M’s last night was also grim (5.1 IP, 8 R).

The 2009 version of Santana has not yet resembled the 2008 model that came equipped with blazing 94.4 MPH heat and a sinister 83 MPH slider. So far, his average fastball velocity sits at 90.7 MPH, with an 81 MPH breaker. Opposing batters made contact against Santana’s stuff just 77.1% of the time in ’08, but have put the bat on the ball 86.4% in ’09 (80.7% MLB average). It wouldn’t be wise to do anything rash like dropping him or trading him for 50 cents on the dollar, but Santana should probably be benched until he works through these kinks.

Willy Taveras, Reds

Taveras was surprisingly competent during the month of April, playing the leadoff-man’s game with aplomb (12.3 BB%, 12.3 K%), but the former Astro and Rockie reverted to his batting average-dependent ways in May (5.5 BB%, 16.7 K%). The result was a hollow .269/.307/.333 line after April’s .262/.351/.228 showing.

Taveras has just about the least amount of extra-base thump in the majors and he generally doesn’t work the count, so he’s an offensive liability when those singles aren’t finding holes. Unfortunately, the 27 year-old has been hitting fewer grounders as the years have gone by: 55.6% in 2006, 51.5% in ’07 and ’08, and 46.3% this season. Nothing good comes from a Taveras flyball, which makes his 35.3% flyball rate (28.6% career average) troubling. Yes, he swipes a lot of bags, but those employing Taveras as an everyday outfielder in fantasy circles lose out on production in other categories.

James Loney, Dodgers

The 25 year-old lefty continues to control the strike zone (9.5 BB%, 10.4 K%), but he’s been showing less power than Juan Castro, for goodness sakes. Loney’s ISO sits at a sickly .085, this after a disappointing 2008 showing (.145 ISO) that would look downright Herculean compared to his current mark. Loney is hitting plenty of line drives (23.5%), but he’s not getting terribly unlucky on balls put in play (.315 BABIP).

In 2009, the average first baseman is slugging .492 with a .364 OBP; Loney holds a .373 SLG% with a .351 OBP. The 6-3, 220 pounder is still relatively young, but singles hitters just aren’t that valuable at a position where power tends to rule the day.

Andy Pettitte, Yankees

Pettitte has long been an underappreciated piece of New York’s tremendous run of success, and he posted a fine 3.71 FIP in 2008. However, the 2009 version hasn’t been as productive. Yes, his ERA (4.10 in ’09) is lower than last year (4.54) and his record is better, but that’s more the product of performance on balls put in play. Pettitte had a .339 BABIP last season, compared to .299 this season. Lead-footed in the field last season (-5.4 team UZR/150, 25th in the majors), the Bombers are slightly in the black this year (+0.4 UZR/150, 14th).

In terms of things that Pettitte has more direct control over, he’s taken a step backward in 2009. His K rate, nearly seven last season, has fallen to just 4.81 (making New York’s defensive improvement all the more important for Pettitte). He has also issued 3.25 walks per nine innings, his highest mark since 2004. The result is a middling 4.86 FIP, the highest mark of his distinguished career.

Remember when Fausto Carmona looked like Cleveland’s ace-in-waiting? As a 23 year-old back in 2007, Carmona compiled a 3.94 Fielding Independent ERA in 215 innings pitched. The Dominican Republic native employed a devastating, hard sinker (93.5 MPH) that generated groundballs by the bucketful (64.3%, bested only by Derek Lowe). That extreme worm burning, coupled with a passable strikeout rate (5.73 K/9) and fairly sharp control (2.55 BB/9) led many to believe that the 6-4, 230 pounder could be headed for a Lowe-esque career path, minus the years of relief work and long wait to crack the starting rotation.

These days, though? Carmona looks more Sean Lowe than Derek Lowe.

Carmona’s 2008 season was marred by a hip injury that limited him to 120 innings. His FIP climbed nearly a full run, up to 4.89. While he still kept his infielders on their toes (63.5 GB%), his K rate fell to 4.33 per nine innings. Far more troubling was his total lack of control: Carmona’s walk rate soared to 5.22, the highest figure among all starters tossing at least 120 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio plummeted from 2.25 in 2007 to a Daniel Cabrera-like 0.83 in 2008. Ironically, Cabrera (1.06 K/BB) actually beat Carmona, who ranked dead last in K/BB ratio among starting pitchers.

Entering 2009, there still remained hope that a mended Carmona would round into his 2007 form. But with each passing, disappointing outing, that looks less and less likely. In 58.2 innings, the 25 year-old owns a wretched 5.62 FIP, the product of 5.37 K/9 and 5.83 BB/9 (Carmona again brings up the rear among qualified starters in walks per nine innings and ranks second-to-last in K/BB ratio. Thanks, Jon Garland.)

Carmona’s collapse has been stunning, both for its suddenness and his age. Like the recently DFA’D Cabrera, Carmona is a young man who has seemingly lost every mote of consistency and talent that made him one of the more impressive young hurlers a few seasons ago. Relying heavily upon a sinking fastball, Fausto has lost velocity on the offering since his banner ’07 season:

2007: thrown 75% of the time, 93.5 MPH
2008: thrown 80.9%, 92.8 MPH
2009: thrown 81.4%, 92.5 MPH

Only Colorado’s Aaron Cook (86.6%) goes to his sinker more often than Carmona among starters. Disturbingly, that once-hellish pitch is now decidedly below-average. Take a look at Carmona’s not-so-turbo sinker, through Fan Graphs’ new pitch linear weights section. Below are Fausto’s run values for his fastball per 100 pitches, from 2007 to 2009 (a positive number indicates that a pitch saves more runs than average per 100 pitches, while a negative figure indicates that the pitch is below average):

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -1.52

Over the past few years, Carmona’s sinker has lost over two runs per 100 pitches in value. When that’s your bread-and-butter offering and a pitch thrown over three-quarters of the time, you have a serious problem on your hands.

Locating just 44.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average), Carmona has seen opponents become increasingly content to just keep the bat on their shoulders. Predictably, his three-year down slope in placing his offerings in the zone has coincided with fewer and fewer hacks by opponents:

2007: 51.4 Zone%, 47.9 Swing%
2008: 50.8 Zone%, 45.1 Swing%
2009: 44.5 Zone%, 42.9 Swing%

Carmona’s fall has been as severe as any pitcher’s in recent years, as he’s gone from a hurler worth 4.3 Wins in 2007 to a guy who’s just keeping his head above the replacement level waters in 2009 (0.2 WAR so far). In what’s shaping up to be another disappointing summer in Cleveland, Carmona’s devolving from organizational pillar to pinata ranks as one of the most bitter pills to swallow. Maybe those midges were a warning sign.