For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Since we last checked up on Rivera, he has racked up three more saves (taking him up to 17 for the year), whiffing 5 batters in 2.2 combined innings. Much has been made about cracks in Mo’s armor this season, from an elevated HR rate to a decrease in cutter velocity to a decrease in his swinging strike percentage. But for all the panic, Rivera holds a 37/3 K/BB ratio in 29.1 innings, with the highest strikeout rate of his career. If this is decline, then we have become awfully spoiled.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has been a machine in June, compiling 8 saves while allowing no one to cross home plate. In fact, the last time Joe conceded a run was all the way back on May 15th. Since then, Nathan has reeled off 14 scoreless frames while punching out 19 hitters and walking just one. His 93 MPH fastball is overwhelming the competition, with a run value of +3.04 per 100 pitches (tops among all relievers).

Joakim Soria, Royals

With K.C. taking a royal beating as of late (6 losses in the past 8 games), Soria has just 1 save during the month of June. Joakim coughed up a run against the Astros on the 24th, and his control is a little off following a pair of DL stints (45.5 Zone%, compared to a 52.8% career average). He’s nasty as ever, though, with a 73.9% contact rate that ranks as the lowest of his career.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Boston’s stopper hasn’t quite been himself this season. Granted, it’s difficult to say that a guy ranking in 4th in Win Probability Added (2.17) is scuffling, but Papelbon isn’t attacking the strike zone in 2009 as he did in previous years. After posting rates of 2.31 BB/9 in 2007 and 1.04 BB/9 in 2008, Papelbon has issued 4 BB/9 this year. His Zone% is down to 48.6 (54.2% career average), and opponents have reacted by swinging at about 9 percent fewer pitches this season. Whether intentional or not, his fastball has more tailing action in on righties this year, the continuation of a three-year trend: 7.3 inches in ’07, 8.5 in ’08 and 9.2 in ’09.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks got taken out of the yard by Cincy’s Jay Bruce on June 20th, but has since reeled off three scoreless innings (2 saves). Bobby is having some uncharacteristic issues with the long ball this year. With a career 54.9% groundball rate and 0.62 HR/9, Jenks doesn’t give up jacks too often. But in ’09, his HR/FB% is 20 percent, 11 percent above his career average. It sounds silly to say with an established reliever like Jenks, but perhaps you could acquire him a little cheaper than usual from an owner just focusing on his inflated ERA (2.63 in ’08, 3.33 in ’09). Jenks’ K/BB ratio (4.33) is a career-high, with his K rate up from 5.55 last season to 8.67 this year.

Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson is getting the call until Francisco gets comfortable), Rangers

Francisco is back with the Rangers, but Wilson continues to get ninth-inning duty as Frank works his way back into form. He fired scoreless innings on the 20th and the 24th, but served up a dinger last evening to Arizona’s Mark Reynolds.

Wilson, meanwhile, hasn’t allowed a run since June 4th, a stretch of 7 innings (8/2 K/BB ratio). He’s doing a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (58 GB%) and his 27.8 Outside-Swing% is a career-high, but Wilson’s 2.67 ERA overstates his case. His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR rate) is 3.78.

In Control

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has notched 3 saves since our last “Closer Report”, though June 20th was the last time he got into a game. The 6-3 righty (ranked just 23rd on Baseball America’s top 30 A’s prospects entering the year) has been a revelation in the ‘pen, with 10.15 K/9 and a 2.90 FIP. Bailey offers an unusually deep mix of pitches for a reliever, able to confound hitters with a 93 MPH fastball (+1.47 runs/100), 89 MPH cutter (+1.38) or 78 MPH curve (+3.70). Good luck squaring up those offerings: Bailey’s 71.8 Z-Contact% (percentage of contact made within the strike zone) ranks 1st among relievers tossing at least 30 innings.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes hasn’t surrendered a run in 5.2 innings this month, with 9 K’s and 3 walks. There are a few interesting trends worth watching with the former Rockie: His Zone% has decreased 3 straight seasons, from 52% in ’07, 51.7 in ’08 and 46.1 this year. Perhaps not coincidentally, the effectiveness of his secondary stuff has lagged this year. His fastball may be down a few ticks (91.6 MPH to 89.9), but the pitch still has a healthy run value of +1.60 per 100 pitches. His slider (-1.78) and changeup (-4.29) aren’t working near as well. Fuentes seems aware of this, however: his percentage of fastballs used has increased from 64.9% in 2006 to over 71% each of the past two seasons.

Kerry Wood, Indians

There’s no place like home? Wood headed back to his old stomping grounds in Wrigley this past week, only to get throttled for a pair of blown saves, 3 runs and 1 dinger in 1.1 innings. Cleveland’s big free agent signing then gave up a run and two walks against the Pirates on the 23rd, escaping with the cheap save by the skin of his teeth. Wood now has -0.2 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. Uh, Kerry, can we get a refund?

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill is working on another scoreless streak, with 5 spotless frames in a row. George has issued just 2 walks in June, after dishing out 5 in May. Typically control-challenged (career 4.36 BB/9), Sherrill has just 2.83 BB/9 in ’09. His WPA (1.44) is way above any of his previous marks.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is headed back to the rotation. We think.)

For the most part, Aardsma has been his wild self in 2009 (5.5 BB/9). But in June, he has issued just 3 walks in 9 innings, while whiffing 17 in the process. Perhaps it’s time to stop being quite so critical. Aardsma’s chances of losing his job are remote with Morrow out of the picture, he’s whiffing over 11 batters per nine innings, and he’s an extreme flyball pitcher backed by two center field-caliber OF’s in a park that suppresses homers. The extremely low HR/FB rate (2.4%), BABIP (.251) and high strand rate (88.1%, compared to a 73.8% career average) portend to regression, but the K’s and grip on the job make him a viable option.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Same old Rodney? Fernando’s strikeout-to-walk ratios over the first three months: 4.00 in April, 2.60 in May and 1.11 in June. Sadly, his sharp spring is looking like the outlier. Sure, Rodney has been scored upon just once in his last 6 innings, but that stretch also includes 4 free passes. His Zone% (49.6) is now below his career average (51.2), with a 1.8 K/BB that is just marginally better than 2008’s 1.63 showing.

Jason Frasor (Scott Downs on the DL with a toe injury), Blue Jays

Downs is down with a left big toe injury, so Frasor will handle closing duties for the time being. He gave up two walks and took a loss against the Nationals on the 19th, but he came back with a save against the Reds on the 23rd. Frasor’s walk rates have usually been lofty (6.08 BB/9 last year, 3.93 for his career), but the 31 year-old righty has issued just 1.75 BB/9 in 2009. It’s not as though he’s suddenly firing strike after strike: his 53 Zone% is right around his career average. Rather, Frasor has baited hitters into chasing 25.4% of his pitches off the plate, well above his 18.5% career mark.

Watch Your Back

Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

Howell collected a save versus the Mets on June 20th, and he hasn’t let up a run all month (9 IP, 11 K, 5 H). Howell has whiffed 10.9 hitters per nine innings, with a 68.8% contact rate that bests K-Rod. Yeah, he’s really good. Now if only we knew he’d keep the closer role..

Last evening, Cardinals righty Joel Pineiro put on a pitching clinic that would make Roy Halladay look downright inefficient by comparison. Tossing exactly 100 pitches in a complete game shutout against the Mets, Pineiro pounded the zone for 62 strikes while generating an absurd 22 groundball outs. We’re not yet half way through the 2009 season, yet the former Mariner and Red Sock has already eclipsed his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total for the last three years combined. From 2006-2008, Pineiro accumulated a total of 2.1 WAR. In ’09, the 30 year-old is already up to 2.5 WAR. That figure places him 13th among all starters.

How has Pineiro gone from roster flotsam to an important member of the Cardinals rotation? By calling upon a bowling ball-like sinker that has opposing batters chopping the ball into the dirt an astonishing 61.3% of the time (Pineiro’s career GB rate is 47.5%). That’s the highest rate of worm killers in the major leagues.

Pineiro’s fastball had long been a below-average offering. According to Fan Graphs’ run value pitch data, Pineiro’s heater has been worth -0.64 runs/100 pitches since 2002. And if anything, that’s understating the pitch’s lack of effectiveness: his fastball was worth -1.48 runs/100 in 2006, -1.19 in 2007 and -1.57 in 2008. In 2009, Pineiro’s fastball has a run value of +0.88 per 100 tosses, a dramatic reversal.

Looking at Pineiro’s Pitch F/X data, the change in his fastball has been dramatic. Take a gander at the horizontal and vertical movement of the pitch over the past three seasons (X is horizontal movement- a negative number indicates movement in on the hands of a right-handed batter. Z is vertical movement. The lower the Z figure, the more downward break on the pitch compared to a ball thrown without spin):

2007: -4.3 X, 9.6 Z
2008: -5.5 X, 7.2 Z
2009: -7.0 Z, 5.3 Z

Pineiro sacrificed fastball speed (from 91 to 88 MPH) for movement, gaining nearly three inches of tailing action in on righties with over 4 more inches of sink. Pineiro has also whipped out an even livelier sinker at times. Pitch F/X shows him throwing a two-seamer 18% of the time, with 9.3 inches of break in on right-handed batters and just 3.7 inches of vertical movement.

The Puerto Rican native is missing next to no lumber (3.88 K/9, the fourth-lowest rate among qualified starters), but he has compensated with nearly spotless control on top of the grounders. Pineiro has issued just 1.17 walks per nine innings, the third-lowest figure among starters. He’s getting ahead 0-and-1 or inducing contact from the get-go: Pineiro’s 66.1 First-Pitch Strike% is well above the 58% MLB average and places fifth among starters.

Joel Pineiro is certainly not a sexy name among fantasy players, given the paucity of strikeouts that he generates. But that doesn’t mean he should be ignored, either. He’s a fundamentally different pitcher than the guy who took the hill in Seattle and Boston, unleashing a nasty sinker, generating weak contact and walking next to no one. Whether he can continue to get this many grounders while issuing so few walks remains to be seen, but Pineiro’s sinker gives him the chance to enjoy a nice second act to his career.

(Quick scheduling note: the “Closer Report”, which has been appearing on Wednesdays, will now be posted on Fridays. Sorry for any inconvenience.)

“I don’t believe that on-base percentage stuff. That’s overrated to me. If you get hits, you’ll be on base. That’s what it’s about.”

– Brandon Phillips, 3/1/2009 to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer

In some respects, the above quote perfectly crystallized Brandon Phillips‘ early major league career. It may be hard to remember now, given that Cliff Lee has a Cy Young award on his mantle and Grady Sizemore has established himself as one of the most valuable center fielders in the game, but Phillips was the principal prospect acquired by the Indians in the June 2002 Bartolo Colon swap. The North Carolina prep product received his first extended look with Cleveland in 2002, at the age of 22. Walking just 3.6 percent of the time and whiffing 20.8%, Phillips struggled to keep his head above water while batting .208/.242/.311 in 393 plate appearances.

The Indians decided to take a step back with the club’s prized youngster, letting him spend the better part of the next two seasons at AAA Buffalo. Phillips wasn’t bad by any means, but he didn’t make much progress in terms of controlling the strike zone:

2004: .303/.358/.430, 8.4 BB%, 10.7 K%
2005: .256/.326/.409, 8.4 BB%, 19.4 K%

Since being shipped to Cincinnati in April of 2006 (Phillips was out of options, and the Indians were out of patience), Phillips has posted wOBA’s of .331 in ’06, .354 in 2007 and .324 in 2008. His walk rates over those three seasons were 6.1, 4.8 and 6.5, respectively. Phillips’ strikeout rates hovered right around 16 percent.

In 2009, Phillips is turning in his best season yet, with a .360 wOBA and a powerful .279/.350/.502 line in 264 PA. While Cincy’s second baseman might have shown disdain for On-Base Percentage this spring, you sure wouldn’t know it from examining his plate approach this season.

Phillips has upped his walk rate considerably this year, drawing a free pass 10.2% of the time. The soon-to-be 28 year-old chased about 34 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone over the 2007-2008 seasons, well above the MLB average that hovers around 25 percent. This season, Phillips has ventured out of the zone only 27.5 percent of the time. After taking a hack at nearly 55 percent of pitches seen over the ’07 and ’08 seasons (the MLB average is about 45 percent), Phillips has cut that number down to 49.2% in 2009.

This newfound discipline is a great sign for Phillips, as opposing pitchers have increasingly given him fewer pitches within the zone:

Phillips’ percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone:

2006: 55.2%
2007: 53.2%
2008: 49.9%
2009: 48.3%

(the MLB avg. in 2009 is 49.1 percent)

As Phillips garnered a reputation as a free-swinger, pitchers became increasingly hesitant to toss him a pitch in the zone. And why not take that approach? If the guy is likely to lunge at a fastball off the plate or a curve in the dirt, then why take the risk of giving him a meatball?

Phillips’ enlightened plate approach has also helped him in the contact department. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 10.9%, which ranks as the 20th-lowest mark among qualified hitters. The 6-0, 195 pounder boasts a career-best .223 ISO, fourth among qualified second basemen.

Couple Phillips’ power and slick leather with less cuts taken at pitcher’s pitches, and you have one of the most valuable up-the-middle players in the majors: with 2.3 Wins Above Replacement, Phillips trails only part-time 2B Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler among those who man the keystone position. Phillips might not believe in all this…OBP stuff. But, he has really honed his strike zone control in 2009, making him a truly dangerous hitter.

Stock Up

Matt Cain, Giants

One month ago, I noted that Cain had posted middling peripherals to start the 2009 season, with his ERA far surpassing his FIP. Since that point, the 24 year-old has pitched up to his capabilities, blowing opposing batters away to the tune of a 30/10 K/BB ratio in 28.1 frames during the month of June. Cain’s K and walk ratios are now right in line with his career totals: 7.23 K/9 (7.61 career) and 3.52 BB/9 (3.76 career). The 6-3, 245 pounder is getting the job done with his 92 MPH fastball (+1.44 runs per 100 pitches) and 86 MPH changeup (+2.90).

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Tulo posted OPS marks in the low-.700’s in April and May, the product of a low Batting Average on Balls In Play (.225 BABIP in April, .262 in May). The Long Beach State Product has demolished pitchers to the tune of a 1.073 OPS with 5 homers in June (.303 BABIP), as the rolling Rockies creep into wild card contention. Tuloitzki’s 15.1 LD% is about 5 points lower than last season, but he’s arguably enjoying his finest offensive season yet. The 24 year-old’s walk rate is a career high 13.5%, and his .213 ISO is also a career best. Tulowitzki’s flyball percentage is up to 45.3% (38.5% career average), a positive indicator in the power department.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

A switch-hitting, ambidextrous fellow with the ability to passably man three positions, Sandoval is fast becoming one of the most enjoyable players to watch. “Kung-Fu Panda” might not fit into a neat archetype or frame of reference, but he’s turning in one heck of an age-22 season.

A noted free-swinger, Sandoval has made some gains in the plate discipline department: his walk rate is up to 6.4% (2.7% last year), with his Outside-Swing% falling from 53.8% in ’08 to 46% this season. That’s still 21.2 points above the major league average and is surpassed only by teammate Bengie Molina among all qualified hitters, but Sandoval does not need to be a walk machine to be a highly effective hitter. Blessed with great hand-eye coordination and contact skills, Pablo has a reasonable K rate (15 percent), has made contact with about 3 percent more pitches than the major league average and boasts a .205 ISO.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

Victimized by a Boston defense that has tumbled from 5th in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2008 to 29th in 2009, Beckett had a .364 BABIP during the month of April. He also didn’t control the zone as well as he usually does during the opening month of the season (1.94 K/BB), resulting in a grisly 7.22 ERA. Beckett’s BABIP is down to .309 now, and he has a 3.56 K/BB ratio over the past two months. After getting himself into hitter’s counts all too frequently in April, Josh has painted the corners in recent starts:

April: 43.5 Zone%, 60.3 First-Pitch Strike%
May: 47.4 Zone%, 63.1 First-Pitch Strike%
June: 54.4 Zone%, 68.5 First-Pitch Strike%

(the MLB averages are 49.1 for Zone% and 58 for F-Strike%; Beckett’s career averages are 53.3% and 61.8%, respectively)

Hunter Pence, Astros

During the offseason, I discussed Pence’s proclivity for chasing pitches off the plate in 2008. Hunter fished at 31.1 percent of offerings outside of the zone, leading to a 6.3% walk rate. Pence’s OBP fell to .318, as the batting average spike he enjoyed in 2007 (.322, with a .378 BABIP) came back down to earth (.269 AVG, with a .303 BABIP).

Pence is again garnering some good fortune on balls put in play (.364 BABIP), which has led to a .331 average. However, he has made some major strides in terms of controlling the zone. His rate of free passes taken has nearly doubled (11.9%), as his O-Swing% has fallen to 26.8%.

Pence wasn’t a particularly good hitter against sliders in 2007 (-0.50 runs per 100 pitches) or 2008 (-0.02), so pitchers threw him the pitch nearly a quarter of the time over those seasons. Advance scouts might need to file a new report on Hunter: hurlers are still feeding him plenty of sliders (26.9%, the third-highest percentage in the bigs), but Pence is pummeling the pitch for a +3.07 run value per 100 pitches. That’s the 13th-highest rate among qualified batters. Houston may be wallowing in mediocrity, and the future looks rather bleak with a fallow farm system, but Pence is looking like a long-term building block.

Stock Down

Dave Bush, Brewers

Bushwhacked: the Milwaukee starter has an inflated 2.00 HR/9 figure (the result of a 16.8 HR/FB% that’s well over his career 12.1% mark), but Bush is allowing hitters to loft the ball at the highest rate of his career. The former Jay has seen his groundball percentage dip from 46.6% in 2006 to 35.1% in 2009. That’s the ninth-highest rate among qualified starters. Lacking an out-pitch, Bush takes a “kitchen sink” approach to the mound by throwing a fastball, cutter, curve, slider and changeup. Out of all those options, only his cutter (thrown 7.6% of the time) has a positive run value in 2009.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Under GM Dayton Moore, the Royals have seemingly collected former Braves farmhands like some people collect bottle caps or stamps. The acquisition of Davies (in July of ’07 for Octavio Dotel) has largely been a bust, however. The 6-2, 205 pound righty pitched decently for K.C. in 2008 (4.22 FIP, with 5.65 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9), but his walk rate ballooned to 4.63 per nine innings in 2009.

Locating just 44.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone and posting a 52 First-Pitch Strike%, Davies was demoted to AAA Omaha over the weekend.

Casey Kotchman, Braves

The Braves rank just 13th in National League team wOBA in 2009. While the banjo-hitting of Atlanta’s corner outfielders has been discussed extensively, the club is also receiving subpar production from the per-eminent power position on the diamond. Kotchman’s ISO has dropped in each of the past three seasons: .172 in 2007, .137 in 2008 and a middle infielder-like .113 in 2009. For comparison, the MLB average at the position is .213. The 26 year-old has devolved from intriguing prospect to liability.

Magglio Ordonez, Tigers

Speaking of power outages, Ordonez is experiencing one that would put the ’77 Bronx Blackout to shame. Magglio’s ISO has fallen off a cliff, from .176 in 2008 to .069 in 2009. The 35 year-old’s groundball percentage has skyrocketed from 43.6% in ’08 to 59.8% in 2009. Among qualified hitters, only Luis Castillo and Skip Schumaker have put the ball on the ground more often. Considering that Ordonez would have a difficult time dusting manager Jim Leyland in a footrace (2.7 Speed Score, way below the 5.1 MLB average), that’s an unhappy development.

Speaking of Leyland, the Tigers skipper recently intimated that Magglio could be grabbing pine more often in the coming months. That decision may well have financial motivations (Ordonez has a hefty $18M option for 2010 based on accumulated playing time), but the former White Sox slugger seems to be losing bat speed. Over the last three seasons, Odronez’s run value per 100 pitches versus the fastball has fallen from +1.81 in ’07, +0.24 in ’08 and just -1.28 in ’09.

Ross Ohlendorf, Pirates

The one where Ross can’t fool anybody: Part of the Bronx swag for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last summer, Ohlendorf posted a 3.24 ERA in April while benefitting from a .260 BABIP. Since that point, the Princeton product has gotten battered to the tune of a 5.20 ERA in May and a 6.33 mark in June.

Ohlendorf has exhibited good control (2.41 BB/9), but his 4.61 K’s per nine innings is the 12th-lowest rate among qualified starters. While many of those with similar K rates compensate with a boatload of groundballs (think Cook, Pineiro, Marquis and Pelfrey), Ross has a 44.7 GB% that’s right around the MLB average. Lefties have teed off against Ohlendorf (.325/.380/.530), continuing a trend of getting smashed by southpaws (.342/.404/.569 in the majors).

Coming into the 2009 season, the Cleveland Indians had to feel pretty confident about Jhonny Peralta. After all, the 6-2, 210 pound Dominican Republic native had averaged 2.75 Wins Above Replacement over the 2005-2008 seasons, including a 3.9 mark in 2008.

His once-leaden leather was showing improvement, as was his bat. While not scaling to the heights of his 2005 season (+25.1 Batting Runs), Peralta improved from -10.6 Batting Runs in 2006 to +2.7 in 2007 and +10.8 in 2008. Jhonny’s ISO rebounded from .128 in ’06 to .160 in ’07 and .197 in ’08. Entering his peak years (Jhonny turned 27 in May), Peralta looked like a good bet to turn in another above average offensive campaign:

2009 pre-season projections:

CHONE: .272/.343/.452
Oliver: .268/.328/.435
ZiPS: .267/.333/.440

Instead, Peralta has been an offensive drag. Through 250 plate appearances, Jhonny owns a sickly .252/.331/.338 line. His .086 ISO is way below his .162 career average. To put that figure into context, the immortal Willie Bloomquist has out-ISO’d Peralta by 11 points. Amazingly, Jhonny and Willie are in a heated race to see how homers more, with Peralta holding a slim two-to-one edge.

So what in the name of Chief Wahoo is going on here? Peralta is showing similar plate discipline, with a 9.8 BB% (9% career average) and an Outside-Swing Percentage of 24% (23.5% career average), so he’s not hacking his way to a sub-.670 OPS. Jhonny’s 25.7% K rate is also near his career norm (25.7%) and his BABIP is .331, so it’s not as though a bunch of balls put in play are finding gloves.

Peralta’s problem? He’s chopping the ball into the dirt like never before and getting jammed more frequently:

2009: 57 GB%, 26.7 GB%, 11.4 IF/FB%
Career Avg: 46.9 GB%, 33.5 FB%, 5.7 IF/FB%

Jhonny holds the 8th-highest groundball rate among all batters, sandwiched between a pair of middle infielders sporting new duds. However, Howie Kendrick (Salt Lake Bees) and Emmanuel Burriss (Fresno Grizzlies) probably aren’t too thrilled to be touring the Pacific Coast League.

Peralta has struggled badly with the heat in ’09, with a -1.12 run value per 100 fastballs seen. That ranks as the 15th-worst mark in the majors, and is well below his +0.49 career average. Jhonny has been an automatic out when pulling the ball this season (stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

2008: Pulled-RHB: .461 BAVG/.737 SLG (101 OPS+; one percent better than the league average in this category)

2009: Pulled-RHB: .216 BAVG/.333 SLG (-6 OPS+)

Not only is Peralta putting the ball in the air less often, but the flyballs he has hit have been about as threatening as a newborn kitten:

2008: .289 BAVG/.792 SLG (167 OPS+)
2009: .200 BAVG/.350 SLG (52 OPS+)

Peralta’s increased groundball rate and infield/fly percentage suggest that he’s a little tentative at the dish right now. He has swung at fewer pitches within the strike zone (67.7%, compared to 73% in 2008) while making contact with those pitches less often (84 Z-Contact% this season, 86.1% in 2008). If Jhonny is going to out-homer Wee Willie Bloomquist, he might have to let ‘er rip with more conviction.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton continued to bellow fire and destroy hitters city by city, picking up two saves against the Rangers on the 13th and 14th and then working a scoreless inning in a non-save chance vs. the A’s last night. Big Jon now has a mind-boggling 53 K’s in 33 innings, with a 0.97 FIP. To put that strikeout figure in perspective, Broxton has more K’s than starters Kyle Davies, Jarrod Washburn, Jeremy Guthrie and Andy Pettitte, despite working 40+ fewer frames. I know it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison (K rates are higher for relievers), but that’s still insane.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell made just one trip to the mound this week, tossing a scoreless inning against the Angels on the 14th (a non-save situation). Heath’s K rate is up nearly two and a half per nine innings from last year (10.54 K/9 in ’09, 8.19 in ’08) and he has still yet to serve up a homer.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

In addition to participating in a bullpen brouhaha with Brian Bruney, K-Rod turned in a rough week at the office. Rodriguez blew a save against the Bombers on the 12th, then walked two while collecting a save against the O’s last night. He’s still nasty, but K-Rod’s contact rate has increased three years in a row (from 66 to 70 percent), while his first-pitch strike% has dipped from 57.2% in 2007 to 52.3% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hell’s Bells surrendered his first run of the season, taking a loss against the White Sox on June 14th. Hoffman then recovered to collect his 16th save of the year against the Indians the next night. Trevor’s 1.44 WPA ranks in the top 15 among relievers, and he holds a 17/2 K/BB in 20 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls hasn’t been himself as of late, coughing up 4 runs in his last 3.2 innings while trying to pitch through a forearm strain. He normally pounds the strike zone (53.4% zone percentage this year), but that figure has actually been brought down by a 45.6% showing in June. With the D-Backs buried in the standings, perhaps Qualls would be best served by taking a week or two off.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Lidge threw a pain-free bullpen session on Tuesday, and will likely begin a rehab assignment this weekend. In the meantime, Madson chucked 4 innings this week. He picked up a save against the Mets on the 11th, whiffed three Red Sox hitters the next night and pitched another scoreless frame versus the Sox on the 14th. He did, however, blow a save against the Jays last night, walking two in the process. Madson still has a 1.24 WPA and a 3.36 K/BB ratio for the year.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero only tossed one inning this week, with a scoreless appearance against the Braves last night (no save, though). He has hasn’t yielded a home run in 28 innings. Cordero’s K rate is down for the third straight year (from 12.22 K/9 in ’07 to 8.36 this year), and his contact rate has risen from 64.5% in 2007 to 76.8% in 2009.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected two saves this week, subduing the Braves on the 11th and the Tigers on the 14th. After an early-season bout of wildness, Capps has issued just one walk in six innings this month. His WPA still sits at -0.58 for the year, though.

Huston Street, Rockies

The Rockies have been on a tear, taking 11 straight ballgames before last night’s loss to the Rays. Street snagged two saves this past week, and his K/BB now sits at an impressive 32/8 in 27 innings. Huston has tossed a first-pitch strike 65.8 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde is back in action after a lengthy DL stint for a calf injury. Papa Grande got back into the swing of things with two non-save appearances against the venom less D-Backs on the 13th and 14th. He punched out 3 batters in the latter inning, and his fastball averaged 95 MPH over the two appearances.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin picked up 2 saves this week (on the 11th vs. the Marlins and the 13th vs. Cleveland), but he did surrender 5 hits in the process. Franklin has displayed sharp control (1.82 BB/9), but a few more base hits will likely fall in from here on out (his BABIP still sits at just .225, with an absurd 99% strand rate).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson got the save against Oakland on June 13th, but hasn’t worked since. The Giants stopper possesses a 96 MPH fastball which has been worth +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. His slider (-0.68)/cutter (-0.94) hasn’t been as dynamic, however.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzo got beat up last evening, surrendering four runs in a rain-soaked affair with the Reds. Soriano also had has issues the past week, giving up 2 runs and taking a loss vs. the Pirates on the 11th. Here’s how the co-closers match up in a few important categories:

FIP: 3.29 Gonzo, 2.24 Soriano

WPA: 0.95 Gonzo, 1.78 Soriano

K/BB: 2.64 Gonzo, 3.36 Soriano

While Soriano has been better, Gonzalez has appeared in more crucial situations (2.00 Leverage Index for Gonzo, 1.74 for Soriano).

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom tossed just one inning this week, picking up a save vs. Toronto on June 13th. With 19 walks in 25.1 frames, the former Mets prospect has seen his FIP inflate from 3.27 in 2008 to 4.51 in 2009.

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Not to be rude, but does it even matter who the closer is for the Nats? Washington has dropped 4 games in a row, sits thirty games under .500 for the year and has a -85 run differential that’s 14 runs worse than San Diego.

MacDougal holds the mostly ceremonial title of Washington’s closer, but he has walked 11 batters in 11.1 innings, with a 4.68 FIP. You’d have to be pretty desperate to venture here.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

Gregg chucked two scoreless innings in a non-save situation against Houston on the 12th, then threw another clean frame against the Twins the following night (non-save). It was a much-needed, quiet week from an off-season pickup who has often given Sweet Lou heartburn (4.75 FIP, with 44.5% of his pitches crossing the dish; the MLB average is 49).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera gave up another run this week, against the Mets on June 12th. Mo’s ERA sits at 3.25 and his 0.88 WPA is merely good as opposed to great, but it’s hard to be terribly concerned about a pitcher with a 33/3 K/BB in 27.2 innings. If you want to be pessimistic, Rivera’s 83.8% contact rate is his highest mark going back to 2002, and the run value on his cutter this season (+0.85 runs per 100 pitches) is also his lowest since ’02.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim had an uncharacteristically bumpy week, blowing a save versus Cleveland on the 11th (stupid seagulls!) and coughing up a run and a homer against the Reds on the 13th (Ohio is not Mr. Soria’s favorite state). The Mexicutioner has been plenty nasty (14 K’s in 12.2 IP), but his control has been a little off: 6 walks with just 45.1% of his pitches crossing home plate (54.5% in 2008).

Joe Nathan, Twins

With 2 saves against the water-treading Cubs on June 12th and 13th, Nathan now holds a 4.83 K/BB ratio (8th among relievers) and is back in the double digits in terms of K’s per nine innings (10.3). Joe’s 31.8 Outside-Swing% is his highest we have going back to 2002.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is working on a seven-inning scoreless streak, and he has allowed just 1 hit in his last four appearances. Papelbon’s O-Swing% sits at 26.2%, below his 30.5% career mark. Hitters have hacked at 9 percent fewer of his offerings compared to last year, likely the result of Papelbon’s percent of pitches in the zone dropping from 54.5% in ’08 to 47.1% in ’09.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks blew a save and gave up a jack to Detroit’s Curtis Granderson on the 11th, then collected a save against the Brewers on the 14th. Bobby’s secondary offerings have been superb this season (+3.22 runs per 100 pitches on the slider, +1.71 on the curve), but his fastball (-0.96) hasn’t been as effective (+1.55 in ’07 and ’08).

Interestingly, the pitch is nearly 2 ticks faster than last year, but it has also shown nearly two additional inches of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters. Jenks’ problems have come primarily against lefties (.893 OPS, .575 vs. RHB). It could just be a coincidence, but perhaps southpaws are more comfortable at the plate, with most everything Jenks throws to them on the outside edge of the plate.

Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson will get any saves with Frank on the DL) , Rangers

Francisco was placed on the DL again, and he hopes to return to Texas within the next 10 days. In the meantime, Wilson will continue to get the call in save situations. He’s getting plenty of grounders (56.6%), but his K/BB ratio sits at a mundane 1.58 and his WPA (0.01) is just slightly in the black.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Unfortunately, Downs suffered some sort of lower body injury in the 10th inning of last night’s contest with the Phillies. Based on performance, Jason Frasor (2.54 FIP, 6.33 K/BB ratio) would be the logical guy to take over the closer’s role if Downs goes on the DL, but it’s hard to say if the Jays would revert back to B.J. Ryan for the moment. Ryan’s fastball is still MIA, with an average speed of 87.5 MPH in June.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has seemingly shook off Ziegler in the contest to close out games for Oakland, a happy development for fantasy owners everywhere. The 6-3 rookie (on pace to throw 105 innings) has punched out 10.54 batters per nine innings, with a 2.87 FIP. The former starter has used his three-pitch mix to great effect: his fastball (+1.39), cutter (+1.57) and curveball (+3.59) have all befuddled batters.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood worked 2 scoreless frame in non-save situations on June 11th and 12th, and hasn’t taken the mound since. Kerry’s hopping mid-90’s heater hasn’t been particularly effective in 2009, with a run value of -1.9 per 100 pitches (+0.75 in 2008).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got into just one game this week, notching his 17th save of the year against the Giants on the 15th. LA’s new closer hasn’t had a whole lot of success with his slurvy breaking ball this season (-1.87 runs per 100 pitches, +2.06 last season). With Fuentes locating just 45.3% of his offerings in the zone, opponents have cut their outside-swing% from 29.4% in 2008 to 23.6% this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, with a scoreless frame against the Braves in a non-save situation on the 13th. George has increasingly placed fewer pitches in the strike zone (55% in ’07, 50.1 in ’08 and 47.1 in ’09), but his O-Swing has also gone up for a third year (21.1 in ’07, 26.3 in ’08 and 29.7 in ’09).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney picked up a save against Pittsburgh on June 12th, but he hasn’t taken the hill since. He had been doing a better job of hitting his spots in April and May, but Rodney’s percentage of pitches thrown over the plate (49.9%) is just slightly above the 49% average now after a turbulent June (43.8 Zone%). On the positive side, his groundball rate (56.5%) is well above his 45.7% average since 2002.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is headed back to the rotation. We think.)

With Morrow playing Hamlet yet again (to start, or not to start, that is the question), the ’06 first-rounder out of Cal has returned to the rotation. That apparently clears the way for Aardsma to keep the closer’s role, but he’s still playing with fire by walking nearly 6 hitters per nine innings. As a flyball pitcher flanked by three outstanding fielders in a homer-suppressing park, Aardsma is in a good spot. But still, the sub-.240 BABIP and 87.1% strand rate just aren’t going to keep up.

Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

Izzy is sadly headed for Tommy John surgery , and he may well have thrown his last pitch in the big leagues. Howell appears to be the man for the moment, and he’s certainly the option that fantasy folks were hoping for. The converted starter supplements his mild mid-80’s fastball with an outstanding curve and change. Howell has whiffed 40 in 32.1 frames, with a 67.3% contact rate that ranks 6th among relievers.

Stock Up

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

During the off-season, I wondered if Hermida might be headed for a Griev(e)ous career path, as a highly-touted prospect who quickly fades. His once-acclaimed plate discipline had eroded, and his power failed to develop. Hermida offered at just 19 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone in 2006, but that figure had climbed all the way to 27.8% by 2008 (the MLB average hovers around 25 percent). Compounding matters, his percentage of pitches swung at within the zone went down (from 64.1% in ’06 to 59.6% in ’08). For a guy with a career .398 OBP in the minors, this was an awfully strange development.

In 2009, Hermida’s beginning to reverse those trends. His outside-swing percentage is down to 23.9, and he’s taking a cut at pitches within the zone 61 percent of the time. Hermida’s walk rate is up nearly four percent (12.6 BB% in ’09, 8.7 BB% in ’08), and his wOBA sits at .355 after last year’s tepid .321. He’s still not pummeling the ball (.145 ISO), but the 25 year-old has lofted 3 dingers over the past week. Hermida might not ever develop into a full-fledged star, but he’s looking like a solid offensive cog.

Scott Baker, Twins

Fresh off a highly promising 2008 season in which he posted a 3.36 K/BB ratio and a 3.79 FIP, Baker was battered by the long ball to begin 2009. The Oklahoma State product coughed up a stunning 14 big flys over the first two months. Baker is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.5 GB%) who will give up his share of round-trippers, but he has settled down after that fireworks bonanza. The 27 year-old’s FIP is at 4.55 and dropping. His K/BB ratio is a superb 5.17, and he’s dominating hitters to the tune of a 23/2 K/BB in June.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

Reynolds’ average has little chance of remaining in the .280’s (he’s whiffing nearly 39% of the time and has a BABIP of .384), but this Arizona slugger is turning in a quality season nonetheless. His walk rate is up a tick (from 10.6% in ’08 to 11.8 this season), with an ISO increase from .219 to .294 (10th among qualified hitters). After scuffling versus same-handed pitching in 2008 (.226/.298/.409 vs. RHP), Reynolds has hung in there against righties for a .280/.358/.566 line in 2009.

The third baseman/ first baseman has seen a ton of sliders this year (26 percent), likely the result of his poor performance against the pitch last season (-1.73 runs below average per 100 pitches). In 2009, however, Reynolds is smacking the slider at a +1.29 run pace. To boot, he has also already eclipsed his SB total from last season: Reynolds has 13 swipes in 16 attempts.

Ben Zobrist, Rays

This is getting ridiculous. The switch-hitting Zobrist, a former Astros prospect acquired in the 2006 Aubrey Huff swap, posted a career .318/.428/.459 line in the minors. He owned the upper minors, but failed to hit in two trials with Tampa in 2006 (.243 wOBA in 198 PA) and 2007 (.180 wOBA in 105 PA).

Zobrist got his foot in the door last season, with a .364 wOBA (.253/.339/.505 in 227 PA). This year? He’s doing his best Mickey Mantle impression, with an absurd .460 wOBA and a .309/.424/.667 line in 198 PA. He’s walking at a Bondsian clip (16.7%), with a near .360 ISO. Among batters with at least 190 trips to the dish, Zobrist is tied with Boston’s Youkilis for the highest wOBA.

Clearly, we shouldn’t expect this to continue, but Zobrist looks like a highly valuable player anyway. The rest-of-season ZiPS projection has him posting a .282/.360/.450 line. Better yet for fantasy owners, Zobrist’s position versatility should make him eligible in the outfield, second base and possibly shortstop.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

Nolasco has endured one of the most bizarre seasons from a starter in quite some time. If you focused just on his ERA, you would assume that he was some Sidney Ponson/John Van Benschoten love child (7.62 ERA). However, his peripherals aren’t bad by any stretch: 7.94 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, good for a 4.10 FIP. Somehow, Nolasco’s BABIP sits at .399; balls put in play against him are falling for hits as if every hitter were Ty Cobb.

Some of the blame can certainly be laid at the feet of Florida’s defenders, who rank ahead of only the last-at-everything Nationals in team Ultimate Zone Rating. Fish fielders have converted balls put in play into outs 68.5 percent of the time (23rd in the majors). Even if the Florida’s pitchers have a collective .315 BABIP, Nolasco’s near .400 mark sticks out like a sore thumb.

Plenty of line drives have been hit against Nolasco (24.7%), but it’s hard to say that a guy garnering an above-average rate of swings outside of the strike zone (27.3%), with a contact rate (79%) below the league average (80.6%) has been lit up. Nolasco’s abhorrent BABIP and extremely low strand rate (54.7%) will improve moving forward, making him an excellent buy-low candidate.

Stock Down

Chris Young, Padres

Has anyone seen Young’s fastball? The 6-10 Ivy Leaguer has seen his velocity drop precipitously over the past three seasons: 88.7 MPH in 2007, 87.2 in ’08 and just 85.8 in ’09. That’s a problem for a flyball pitcher who likes to work high in the zone. Young has thrown his heater nearly three-quarters of the time during his career, and continues to chuck fastballs over 70 percent of the time. Unfortunately, the pitch scarcely resembles its former self.

Young’s run value on the cheese has gone from +1.26 per 100 pitches in 2007 to +0.91 in ’08 and a lousy -0.64 in 2009. His contact rate is up significantly (76.1% in ’07 to 83.2% in ’09), and he’s throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone (about 3 percent below the 48.9% MLB average this year). With below-average cheddar thrown at the letters, Young’s HR rate has soared from 0.52 per nine innings in 2007, 1.14 in ’08 and 1.42 in ’09. And that’s without an inflated HR/FB rate (just 10%), and the benefit of Petco.

Honestly, it’s hard to make the case that Young is even a league-average pitcher at this stage. Take a look at his ERA+ figures over the past three seasons (ERA+ park-adjusts a pitcher’s ERA, placing it on a scale where 100 is average, above 100 is above-average and below 100 is below-average):

2007: 129 ERA+
2008: 97 ERA+
2009: 72 ERA+

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

Galarraga was due for some regression this season (4.88 FIP in 2008, compared to a more sparkly 3.73 ERA), but he’s just been plain bad this year. His ERA sits at 5.56, with an even worse 5.93 FIP. His K rate is down to 5.68 from 2008’s 6.35, with an increase in free passes from 3.07 per nine to 4.13. Armando’s low-90’s fastball is getting roped (-2.14 runs per 100 pitches), and his mid-80’s slider/cutter (thrown 41.2% of the time) is getting crunched as well. The pitch had a +2.69 run value in ’08, but comes in at a paltry -0.08 in 2009.

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies’

Rollins’ struggles have been well-documented, as the 2007 N.L. MVP has a macabre .258 wOBA. J-Roll has done more damage in the batter’s box than any other player, with a stunning -17.7 Batting Runs.

A .226 BABIP has certainly done him no favors, but Rollins has drawn a walk just 4.3% of the time after last year’s career-high 9.4% pace. His ISO (.112) is at the lowest point since a small cup of jobe with Philly back in 2000. Strangely, Rollins has gone from a very good fastball hitter to one of the worst over the past several seasons:

Runs/100 pitches value against fastballs, 2006-2009

2006: +1.20
2007: +0.58
2008: -0.12
2009: -2.04

Only Bengie Molina and Brian Giles have fared worse against the heat in 2009.

Daniel Murphy, Mets

While Murphy wasn’t out in left field long enough for us to derive a significant sample, the consensus seems to be that he performed about as well as a grizzly bear on roller skates. As such, Murphy (a former 2B/3B in the minors) is likely relegated to first base, where offensive expectations are exceptionally high: the average MLB first baseman is batting .276/.364/.487 in 2009. Murphy is making plenty of contact (11.6 K%) and his .248 BABIP should improve, but a .116 ISO just doesn’t get it done. He’s 24 and has time to improve, but Murphy is looking more like a Ross Gload-type at this point.

Dontrelle Willis, Tigers

Willis’ peripherals had been headed south during his last two seasons in Florida and he accumulated a ton of mileage on his arm at a young age, but the optimist and fan in me hoped that Dontrelle could find at least some semblance of his former self this season. Sadly, that does not appear to be in the cards.

The 27 year-old D-Train has a mind-bending 17/28 K/BB ratio in 33.2 innings after yesterday’s 8-walk disaster in Pittsburgh. Just 42% of his offerings have been within the strike zone, making hitters understandably hesitant to swing (41 swing%, compared to the 44.8% MLB average). When batters do take the lumber off their shoulders, they’re making contact about 7 percent more than the MLB average. I really do wish Willis the best, but there’s nothing positive to say here.

Toronto Blue Jays DH/LF Adam Lind entered the 2009 season with plenty of questions about his long-term prospects. A 3rd-round pick out of South Alabama in the 2004 amateur draft, Lind lashed minor league pitching (including a mammoth .330/.394/.556 slash line between AA New Hampshire and AAA Syracuse in 2006). The southpaw also enjoyed a scalding cup of coffee with the Jays late in the ’06 season (.432 wOBA in 65 plate appearances). Unfortunately, he then proceeded to frustrate hopeful Jays fans and fantasy owners for the next two seasons.

Given the beat down he gave International League pitching and his hot start with Toronto, Lind’s 2007 season had to be considered a disappointment. He posted a .238/.278/.400 line in 311 PA, with a paltry .291 wOBA. Lind often went fishin’ off the plate, chasing nearly 30 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone (25 percent MLB average in ’07). That impatience led to a 5.2% walk rate and a high first-pitch strike percentage. Adam offered at the first pitch or got behind in the count 0-1 61.7% of the time (58.8% MLB average that year). Lind was optioned to the minors in July, and while he struggled upon being brought up again in September (.255 OBP), the Jays still held high hopes. After all, Lind was still just 23.

His work in 2008 looked better on the surface (.282/.316/.439, .325 wOBA in 349 PA), but much of that improvement was a boost in BABIP (.271 in ’07, .322 in ’08) despite a similar line drive rate. In terms of controlling the strike zone, Lind continued to scuffle. His walk rate dipped to 4.7 percent, while he chased even more pitches off the dish (34 outside-swing percentage). His first-pitch strike percentage hiked up to 64.2%. That placed Lind among other hacking luminaries such as Jose Castillo, Chris Davis and Miguel Olivo.

With two years of tepid performances in the batter’s box, Lind was under the microscope this past spring. Most every projection system pegged him as a league-average hitter. CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS and Oliver all had Lind projected for a wOBA somewhere between .326 and .339, with an OBP in the .320’s and a slugging percentage around .450. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system churned out a similar .272/.326/.458 prognostication.

We’re well into June now, and Lind is demolishing those forecasts. 26 in July, Lind is batting a robust .310/.375/.552, good for a .397 wOBA. While he hasn’t turned into a walk machine, Lind has upped his rate of free passes to a more tolerable 8.8 percent.

His outside-swing percentage has been pared down to 27.1 percent, within shouting distance of the 24.8 percent MLB average. After posting a .162 Isolated Power in 2007 and .156 in 2008, Lind is driving the ball to the tune of a .243 mark in 2009. He chopped the ball into the dirt over 50 percent of the time in ’08, but that mark is down to 43.2 percent this season. His first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.4 percent, below the big league average (57.9) for the first time in his career.

Lind’s biggest gains have come against breaking pitches. He struggled with sliders in ’07 and ’08 (with run values of -1.37 and -1.56 per 100 pitches, respectively), but he’s smoking them for a +2.56 run value per 100 tosses this season. Slightly below-average versus curves in 2008 (-0.50 per 100 pitches), Lind has hammered the hook for a +3.54 value this year (8th-best among qualified hitters).

Lind’s scorching start to the 2009 season does not look like a mirage. He’s doing exactly what you’d like a hitter to do: he’s showing more restraint by laying off pitcher’s pitches off the plate, working the count, improving his performance against breaking stuff and hitting fewer grounders. It may have taken him a while to figure things out, but Lind looks like legitimate breakout hitter.

Without question, Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw is one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. A 6-3, 220 pounder who’s just barely old enough to legally kick back a beer after a game, Kershaw possesses a searing mid-90’s fastball and a hook that earned the “Public Enemy Number One” designation from Vin Scully.

While Kershaw has as much long-term potential as any starter in the game, it can be a little frustrating to watch him endure growing pains at the major league level. Take his last outing: a 2.2 inning, four-walk stinker versus the Padres. In his next start, Kershaw could punch out a baker’s dozen (as he did against the Giants on April 15th), or he could fail to make it out of the third inning.

In 107 innings last season, Kershaw posted rates of 8.36 K/9 and 4.35 BB/9 while compiling a 4.08 FIP. Authoring a 4.04 FIP in 2009, he’s whiffing a few more batters (8.72 K/9) but his control has taken another step backward. Kershaw is issuing an unacceptable 5.48 walks per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of free passes among all qualified starting pitchers. Not surprisingly, Kershaw is averaging about 5.1 innings per start, while tossing 4.3 pitches per plate appearance (4.0 in 2008). No pitcher in the N.L. has thrown more pitches per PA (well, unless you wanna count Cody Ross’ one-inning stint for the Fish).

At the moment, Kershaw’s biggest obstacle to acedom would appear to be his lack of a third pitch. Clayton’s 93.6 MPH fastball (thrown about 75 percent of the time) has been a quality offering, with a run value of +0.94 runs per 100 pitches that ranks in the top 20 among starters. That vaunted slooow curve (utilized about 18 percent) is also biting, at +1.58 (just outside the top 20). His changeup, though? Clayton has pulled the string just over 6 percent of the time. While keeping in mind that the sample is small, the change has a sordid run value of -5.42 per 100 pitches (5th worst among starters).

The changeup is typically thrown to opposite-handed batters, so Kershaw hasn’t really had a pitch that moves away from righties. In 2009, Clayton has eviscerated left-handed hitters with his heat and yellow hammer to the tune of a .149/.255/.213 line in 56 PA. He has a 3.17 K/BB ratio versus southpaw batters. While right-handers aren’t exactly lighting him up, they are getting on base at a far higher clip (.237/.355/.390, 1.3 K/BB ratio in 216 PA).

Take that June 10th start against San Diego. The Padres had six guys batting from the right side, none of them especially imposing (Eckstein, Kouzmanoff, Headley, E. Gonzalez, Blanco, J. Wilson). Here’s how Kershaw pitched to a lineup that wouldn’t stand out at Portland (graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

The green dots are fastballs, the pink ones are curveballs and the lonely yellow dot is a changeup.

There’s just one changeup. Mostly, Kershaw flipped curveballs up there that he couldn’t locate, or attempted to bust righties on the inner half of the plate with fastballs. He gave up doubles to Kouzmanoff and Headley, and somehow managed to walk Blanco (career .289 OBP) once and Wilson (.279) twice!

That’s an extreme case, but it does serve to highlight the next big step for Kershaw. He’s going to have to find a way to tighten the strike zone against righty batters to graduate from talented-but-inconsistent prodigy to full-fledged ace.