Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

A live-armed, 28 year-old lefty who has already been traded four times in his pro career, de la Rosa has intrigued (and frustrated) many big league franchises. However, the Monterrey native finally seems to have found a home in Colorado. de la Rosa’s 4.78 ERA looks just passable, but bear in mind he’s toiling in the best offensive environment in the majors, in front of some generally lackluster defenders (Jorge’s BABIP is .319, and the Rockies rank 24th in team UZR).

In 111 innings this year, de la Rosa has whiffed 9.08 batters per nine frames, with a career-low 3.81 BB/9. That’s not razor-sharp control, but it’s a considerable step above his career 4.68 BB/9. de la Rosa’s fastball continues to be nothing special (-0.84 Runs/100 pitches), but his secondary stuff is deadly. His mid-80’s slider has a +2.04 run value, with Jorge’s changeup coming in at +2.34. de la Rosa’s FIP sits at 3.70 for the season.

Brett Cecil, Blue Jays

The Jays have seemingly filtered through a couple dozen rotation options this season as the club deals with a rash of injuries to its hurlers, but Cecil may be the best of them all. A closer at the University of Maryland, Cecil was converted to the rotation on the basis of his sturdy 6-3 frame and four-pitch arsenal (91 MPH fastball, 85 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve, and 82 MPH change).

The former Terp tore through the minors, striking out over eight-and-a-half hitters per nine innings while posting a groundball rate in excess of 60 percent. Cecil’s control could use some sharpening (he walked about four per nine innings at AAA and has issued 3.66 BB/9 in the bigs), but he has had little problem fooling hitters at the highest level (7.47 K/9). Cecil has a 4.36 XFIP (based on K’s, BB, and a league average HR/FB rate) in 59 innings for Toronto in 2009. He’s basically a league-average starter right now, with considerable room for growth.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Pronk Smash! For better or worse, the Indians owe Hafner roughly $52 million from 2009-2012, meaning he would have to produce somewhere around 11.5 Wins Above Replacement over that period to be “worth” the cash (an average of 2.8-2.9 WAR a year). That’s a mighty tall order for a 32 year-old DH with a recent history of shoulder ailments, but Hafner has produced a .399 wOBA when able to take to the batter’s box in 2009. After seeing his ISO dip to a paltry .125 during an injury-riddled 2008, Hafner has bumped that number up to a healthy .259. Pronk is looking like an anchor on Cleveland’s book keeping, but there’s still some fantasy value to be had here.

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Someone needs to inform Mr. Beckham that this whole…Major League Baseball thing? It’s not supposed to be this easy. The 2008 first-rounder out of Georgia zoomed to the South Side after just 259 minor league plate appearances (.322/.375/.519), and he has performed admirably as a 22 year-old rookie. Beckham holds a .289/.368/.447 line in 175 PA, good for a .352 wOBA. Gordon has displayed very good control of the zone, walking 10.6% of the time while punching out just 15.1%. Beckham has plenty of value in keeper leagues, but you could certainly do worse in the here and now.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

For the majority of his major league career, Blanton had been an Average Joe. His combination of moderate quality (4.17 FIP) and quantity (he made between 32 and 34 starts from 2005-2008) made Blanton a pretty valuable commodity (averaging 3.45 WAR over ’05 to ’08), but the shape of his production has been different in 2009. The former Kentucky Wildcat has a career K rate of 5.52 per nine innings, but he has punched out 7.76 per nine this season while walking 2.59. Blanton had some early-season issues with the home run (his HR/FB% is still bloated at 14.5), but his XFIP (3.91) is a career-best.

How is he garnering the extra punch outs? It’s difficult to say, really. He’s not garnering a ton of outside swings (22.1 O-Swing%, 21.4% career average), his contact rate (84.3%) is about four percent above the MLB average and a near match for his career mark (84.8 percent). Joe’s called and swinging strike percentages are actually down from 2008. About the only discernable trend I can find is a gradual increase in the percentage of fouls Blanton has gotten off of his stuff. What say you, Phillies fans?

Stock Down

Rick Porcello, Tigers

There’s much to like about Porcello in the long term. He won’t turn 21 until December. He possesses a 91 MPH sinker that really bores in on the hands of righty batters, and has helped him generate grounders at a 56.1% clip. He also totes a mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup that are in the development stage, as well as a low-80’s slider that the Tigers basically had him scrap.

In the here and now, though, he still understandably has some things to work on. Porcello has located 47.9 percent of his offerings within the strike zone (below the 49.3% MLB average), with a First-Pitch Strike Percentage (55.5%) that’s also under the big league norm (58.1%). The 6-5 New Jersey prep product has dished out plenty of souvenirs (1.57 HR/9, 19.1 HR/FB%). Given his groundball tendencies, that doesn’t portend to be an issue in the long run. But it could be the product of command that seems to come and go. Porcello is nearly at the 100-inning mark, and the Tigers will likely tread cautiously when it comes to his workload.

Erik Bedard, Mariners

Sigh. I would imagine that by this juncture, Mariners fans get kinda twitchy just at the mention of Bedard’s name. Six years of team control over Adam Jones and Tillman, plus some decent work by closer George Sherrill was the high, high price of acquiring the Baltimore ace. So far, Bedard has tallied just 3 WAR for the M’s. The 30 year-old free-agent-to-be has turned in a typical season in 2009: tantalizing pitching (3.51 FIP in 83 IP) interrupted by a seeming avalanche of physical problems. The latest, shoulder inflammation, sends Bedard to the DL yet again. Now the Mariners likely can’t shop his services, and Bedard won’t bring back a draft pick this winter, either.

Andy LaRoche, Pirates

Coming up with the Dodgers, the junior LaRoche was a walks and doubles machine. He posted a tasty .310/.400/.538 line during his minor league career, which caught Pittsburgh’s eye enough to make him the principal player acquired in last year’s Bay-Manny swap. While few expected LaRoche to be a brute, over-the-fence threat in the majors, his lack of thump is becoming a bit disconcerting. He’s doing a nice job of controlling the zone in 2009 (8.7 BB%, 16K%), but Andy’s work has been bereft of pop. LaRoche’s ISO sits at just .117 for the season. To put that into context, the weak-hitting fellow to LaRoche’s left (Jack Wilson) has a .121 ISO this year. His fielding has improved (+4.3 UZR/150 at 3B), which will give him a little more leeway. But from an offensive standpoint, LaRoche has been pretty boring.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton missed part of the season following surgery to repair a partially torn abdominal muscle, and he still looks rusty at the dish. The 28-year-old lefty batter has hit just .228/.279/.402 in 201 PA, with a .299 wOBA. Josh has gradually become more of a free swinger since his career re-birth in Cincy a few years back:

2007: 26.9 O-Swing%, 56.7 F-Strike%
2008: 34.7 O-Swing%, 60 F-Strike%
2009: 36.3 O-Swing%, 63.5 F-Strike%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 58.1%, respectively)

Hamilton has walked just 6.6% of the time, with a 27.2% K rate. He’s hammering fastballs (+0.89 Runs/100 Pitches), but secondary stuff is giving him the heebie-jeebies (-1.32 for the slider, -1.79 for the curve, -3.33 for the change).

Johnny Cueto, Reds

That Cueto has regressed shouldn’t come as a total and complete shock:

April: 2.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP
May: 2.72 ERA, 4.15 FIP
June: 3.60 ERA, 4.79 FIP

..But Johnny has turned in a pretty rough July (7.61 ERA, 5.97 FIP) in which his 20008 tater problems have re-appeared with a vengeance (1.90 HR/9 this month). He’s certainly been hit-unlucky (.393 BABIP), but Cueto has also issued nearly 5 walks per nine innings.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Any early-season concerns about Rivera’s mortality are decidedly in the rearview mirror, as the Hammer of God has not given up a run since June 12th (a stretch of 14.2 innings). His K/BB ratio is an obscene 45/4 in 41.1 innings, and the run value on Rivera’s cutter (currently +2.29 per 100 pitches) climbs by the appearance. Mo’s XFIP (based on BB’s, K’s and a normalized HR/FB ratio) is 2.20. That’s the fourth straight season that his XFIP has decreased.

Joe Nathan, Twins

How good has Nathan been in 2009? The 2 runs he gave up in a blown save op vs. the Angels on July 23rd were the first tallies against him since May 15th. Joe has whiffed 10.8 batters per nine innings, while posting the lowest walk rate (1.88 BB/9) of his career. Nathan is generating his highest percentage of outside swings we have on record dating back to 2002 (32.7%), and all three of his pitches are decimating hitters. Whether he chucks a 94 MPH fastball (+3.25 runs/100), 88 MPH slider (+2.08) or 82 MPH curve (+2.62), the end result is the same: the batter ain’t getting on base.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Cliff Notes version of Kansas City’s second half: Royals lose a lot, Soria doesn’t pitch enough. K.C. blows several 8th-inning leads while leaving the club’s best ‘pen arm to flick sunflower seeds and drink Gatorade. In another example of why using your best reliever only when he can earn a “SV” next to his name is shoddy strategy, Soria has tossed 7 innings this month. Roman Colon, Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay and Jamey Wright have all gotten more work in July. Huh? When Joakim has taken the mound, he has been his customary dominant self (1 R, 9 K, 0 walks).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

While under the weather (flu), Papelbon has turned in his finest month of the season. The 28 year-old has punched out 8 batters in 7 innings, with 1 walk and 1 run allowed. Uncharacteristically wild in the early going, Papelbon has pounded the zone as of late:

Zone%, by month:

April: 48.1%
May: 46%
June: 54.1%
July: 59%

Not coincidentally, Papelbon’s mid-90’s gas has been as its best in July (+4.97 Runs/100). It’s beginning to look like Boston’s stopper is back to his old dominant self.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks has turned in a bumpy July. In 6 innings, he has allowed 10 hits, 6 runs and 4 base on balls. His K/BB ratio (3.5) is still well ahead of last year’s pace (2.24), and there appears to be little chance of anyone overtaking Bobby as he works out the kinks in his delivery. Pale Hose skipper Ozzie Guillen, uh, made that pretty clear recently:

“Wow, what did this kid do to this town to make people treat him like that? He’s my closer, and if people don’t want him to be my closer, don’t come to the [bleeping] game.” (chicagotribune.com)

J.P. Howell, Rays

Apparently entrenched as Tampa’s closer, Howell will only climb this list in the weeks to come. J.P. tossed 13 scoreless frames in June, and has made 6 spotless appearances out of seven this month (a 3-run hiccup vs. the A’s on the 12th being the exception). Howell is an odd bird as a closer, but just because he doesn’t fit the fire-breathing archetype doesn’t mean he can’t wipe the floor with hitters. His oft-used curveball (+2.44 runs/100) and changeup (+3.67) have been superb, and that mid-80’s fastball is certainly holding its own (+1.16).

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has given up runs and taken losses in back-to-back appearances (on the 19th and the 21st), but he otherwise has enjoyed another stellar month (12 K, 2 BB, 6 H in 10.1 IP). The rookie righty sports rates of 10.48 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9. His 68.4 percent contact rate is the 6th-lowest among all relievers (teammate Mike Wuertz, at a stunning 56.5%, leads all ‘pen arms).

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes hasn’t coughed up a run since May, a run of 16 innings in which he has K’d 17 and walked five. The first-year Angel has posted the lowest walk rate (2.78 BB/9) of his career, though I’m not entirely sure how, to be honest. He’s not generating a bunch of outside swings (24%, one percent below the MLB avg), his Zone% is down (47.8%, 52.1% career average) and so is his First-Pitch Strike % (53.8%, 56.4% career average).

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Activated from the DL before the All-Star break, Downs returns to the closer’s role with little competition. He has whiffed a career-best 9.49 per nine innings in 2009, relying heavily on opposing batters getting themselves out by expanding their strike zones (34.2 O-Swing%, nearly 12 percent above his career rate). Like Howell, Downs is another example of a guy getting power-pitcher’s results with movement and deception. Downs’ pitches don’t sizzle, but his 90 MPH fastball has a ton of tailing action (10.6 inches; the avg, lefty fastball has 6.4 inches of tail) and his 76 MPH curve features plenty of sweeping (7.5 inches) and dropping (7.3 inches) movement.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Believe it or not, Aardsma hasn’t actually exhibited bad control over the past two months. Since the beginning of June, the former Giant, White Sock, Cub and Red Sock has a 29/7 K/BB in 22 frames. His Zone% for the season is up to 49.7% (including 56 percent in July), which is slightly above the league average, and his BB/9 is back under five. Aardsma has typically walked the yard during the course of his career and his BABIP (.256) is on the low side. But as a flyball pitcher, behind great defenders, in a pitcher’s park, he’s in the perfect situation.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry has turned in an adequate July, with 3 runs, 8 K’s and 2 walks in 7.1 innings. Saves have come few and far between for the also-ran Indians (Wood has 13 on the year), though the Texan is at least generating more outside swings of late. Wood has a paltry 20.7 Outside-Swing% for the year (over 10 percent below his 2008 rate), though that mark is up to 31.5% this month.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill went on a tear in June (11 IP, 1 R, 8/2 K/BB), but his July performance has been milder (7.2 IP, 4 R, 9/4 K/BB). The 32 year-old would appear to be a prime trade candidate for the O’s, who are still likely two years away from mounting any kind of serious threat to the beasts of the A.L. East. His walk rate (2.97 BB/9) is a career-low, and his 64 First-Pitch Strike% is the highest of his big league tenure.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on the DL yet again, this time with pneumonia)

With the thrice-D.L.’ed Francisco yet again unavailable, Wilson will pick up the save chances. The 28 year-old southpaw is still a little on the wild side (45.9 Zone%, compared to the 49.3 MLB average), but he has reigned in his walk rate from 2008’s unacceptable 5.24 to this year’s 3.77 mark by virtue of getting more swings outside of the zone. Wilson has also generated more grounders (56.3%, 49.3 in 2008). He’s not a great reliever, but there are certainly worse options out there.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney moves up into “In Control” status, due to a combination of good pitching and Zumaya’s shoulder going “boom” yet again. In 7 July innings, Fernando has allowed 1 run, with 8 K’s and 3 walks. With 4.28 BB/9 and just 47.5% of his pitches thrown within the zone, Rodney is still something of an adventure in the late innings.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Overall, Broxton has been downright Gagne-esque in 2009. He has whiffed fourteen and a half hitters per nine innings, has the fourth-best WPA (2.87) among relievers and shuts the door for the best team (by far) in the National League.

But not all is well in Mannywood. Unfortunately, Broxton is suffering from a big toe injury that manager Joe Torre feels will linger for the duration of the season. Big Jon had a rough couple of outings prior to the All-Star break (5 R, 5 H and 4 BB in 2 IP on the 5th and the 10th), and he walked two in his first post All-Star appearance. However, he has turned in three spotless appearances since, including saves vs. the Astros on the 19th and the Reds on the 20th.

Going forward, Broxton should still be plenty dominant. But his first-half reign of terror is not something we should expect over a long period of time from any reliever, bum toe or not.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell finally surrendered a home run this week, as Florida’s Chris Coghlan took him deep in a non-save situation on the 22nd. Heath hasn’t had the tidiest of months (4 R, 8 H in 5.2 IP), but he holds one of the top 10 WPA marks in the majors (2.49), with an increase in K/9 from 9.19 in 2008 to 10.53 in 2009 (a career-high). The uptick in punch outs seems to have come at the expense of some control: his walk rate is up to career-high 3.43 per nine frames (the 4th-straight year that it has increased). His percentage of pitches in the zone over that period has gone from 54.6% in ’06 to 47.7% this year (49.3% MLB average).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman collected a save against the Reds on the 16th and the Pirates on the 21st, giving him 22 on the year. Trevor has yet to be taken deep in 28.1 frames.

While he’s obviously been fortunate in that regard, the extreme flyball hurler (34.6 GB% since 2002) has generated grounders at an above-average 48.1% clip in 2009. Looking at Hoffman’s Pitch F/X data, his fastball and changeup have both shown two inches less vertical movement this season. Take a look at the vertical (Z) break on Hoffman’s fastball/changeup mix over the past three years:

2007:
Fastball 14.8 Z, Changeup 9.5 Z (30.6 GB%)

2008:
Fastball 14.6 Z, Changeup 8.8 Z (39 GB%)

2009:
Fastball 12.4 Z, Changeup 6.5 Z (48.1 GB%)

The relative difference in vertical break between the fastball and change remains about the same (a good thing), but he’s isn’t throwing quite as high in the zone.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

With the Mets plummeting into oblivion (look, Francoeur can’t bear to even watch anymore), save chances have been sparse in Queens (one since the All-Star break). Want an example of why ERA isn’t such a good measure for relievers? K-Rod’s has dropped three years in a row (2.81 in 2007, 2.24 in 2008 and 1.81 in 2009), yet his K/BB has dipped from 2.65 to 1.80 over that time, with a jump in FIP (2.70 in ’07, 3.22 in ’08, 3.58 this year). A low BABIP (.236) has veiled the signs of decay, but the 2009 version of Rodriguez hasn’t been especially good.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a rough June, Qualls appears to be back on track in July. In 9 frames, he has given up 2 runs while issuing just 1 walk. Qualls isn’t missing as many bats this year (7.49 K/9 in ’09, 8.67 in ’08), but he has been extremely stingy with the free passes (1.13 BB/9, the 4th straight year that he has lowered his walk rate).

The 30 year-old is inducing more contact these days: his Z-Contact% (pct. of contact within the zone) has increased by five percent since 2007, with a 10 percent increase in total contact. He’s still burning worms (59.8 GB%) and has posted a 2.82 FIP, but his ERA (3.63) is inflated due to some shoddy D behind him. The D-Backs (27th in Defensive Efficiency) have allowed a .325 BABIP behind Qualls. Groundballs do have a higher BABIP than flyballs (.231 to .221), but that’s an excessive figure nonetheless.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street is on a serious roll. He has allowed 1 run all month, without walking a batter in 7.1 frames. The erstwhile Athletic holds an exceptionally strong 4.70 K/BB ratio for the season, with a mid-80’s slider that is carving up the competition (+4.74 runs/100 pitches). After posting a -0.01 WPA last year, Huston has a 1.87 mark in 2009.

In Control

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has also allowed just a single tally in July, with 9 K’s and one walk in 7.2 innings. Papa Grande’s year has been interrupted by a calf injury and he has had some issues with the long ball (15.4 HR/FB%), but he has maintained a near 11 K/9 pace while paring down his walk rate for the 4th straight season (from 4.01 BB/9 in 2006 to 2.25 this year). Interestingly, Valverde hasn’t made some concerted effort to put more pitches over the plate: his Zone% has gone from 59.2% in ’06 to 53% in 2009. Rather, his Outside-Swing% has soared:

2006: 22.4%
2007: 24.4%
2008: 33%
2009: 36.4%

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Has Soriano wrested the full-time closer’s gig from Gonzalez? It would appear that way. After all, Rafael has taken the last 8 save chances for the Braves. While the merits of the switch to more rigid bullpen management can be debated, Soriano’s set role is certainly a good thing for fantasy owners. The immensely-talented-but-fragile righty has decimated hitters for 12.02 K/9 this season, with the second-best WPA (2.97) in the bigs. His 93 MPH cheese (+2.4 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.53) have been near-unhittable this year.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The All-Star break came at an opportune time for Capps, who was throttled for 5 runs, 6 hits and two walks in a 0.1 inning debacle vs. the Phillies on the 11th. Since the respite, he has tossed three scoreless innings (one save) while whiffing 5 hitters. Don’t be totally surprised to see Capps’ name floated in trade talk over the next week; Pittsburgh’s front office is not shy about making bold moves if they feel it betters the franchise long-term. Shipping out a good-not-great reliever with a recent history of shoulder problems wouldn’t be a total shocker.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Co-Co hasn’t seen much work lately, with two appearances (1 save) since the All-Star break. The 34 year-old has experienced a rather startling drop in his K rate, from a career-high 12.22 K/9 in 2007 to 7.58 this year. A .250 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate (2.9%) make his ERA (1.66) look pristine, but there are some warning signs here. Opponents are putting the bat on the ball more often (64.5% contact rate in ’07, 77.2% in ’09) and aren’t chasing nearly as many pitches out of the zone (22.9% in 2009, two percent below the MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin converted a 1.1 inning save vs. Arizona on the 19th, but blew an opportunity against the Astros on the 22nd (4 H, 2R in 0.2 IP). The Cards closer certainly hasn’t been poor this year: his K rate (7 per nine) is a career-high and his K/BB in 3.5. But his .230 BABIP, near 93% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (5.7%) suggest he’ll resume being a pretty good reliever stretched as a relief ace.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Lidge continues to make both Phillies Phans and fantasy owners tear their hair out. Last year’s WPA leader has endured an explosive July, with 5 runs and 6 walks coughed up in 7.2 innings. Hobbled by a knee injury, Lidge has lost all semblance of control (5.91 BB/9). His fastball has arguably been the worst in baseball (-2.92 runs/100 pitches), and his trademark slider has been merely average (-0.02). How much leash will the first-place Phillies give him?

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has worked four clean innings since the break, with one save converted vs. Pittsburgh on the 19th. Paradoxically, Wilson’s K rate has remained unchanged (9.67 in ’08, 9.76 in ’09) despite an increase in zone contact rate (81.8% to 86%), and his walk rate has dropped (from 4.04 to 3.32) despite a drop in pitches within the strike zone (54.3% to 49%).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Is it time to move Gregg up a peg? In 11.1 July frames, he has given up 3 runs with a 9/3 K/BB, and it’s not as though Marmol (with a staggering 8.55 BB/9) has done much to inspire confidence. He’s still something short of a ninth-inning asset, but Gregg’s WPA is up to 1.34.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins appear to have settled on Nunez as the 9th-inning option, with Meyer (outperforming Nunez in FIP and WPA) assuming set-up duties. Leo converted save opportunities vs. San Diego on the 20th and 21st. He has often walked the tight rope in 2009, posting a first-pitch strike percentage (55.9%) below the major league average (58.1). However, Nunez has been plenty hard to hit, with batters making contact with just 75.4% of pitches thrown within the strike zone (87.8% MLB avg).

Mike MacDougal/Joe Beimel/Sean Burnett, Nationals

Interim manager Jim Riggelman recently announced that the Nationals will use a “closer-by-committee” approach, which is a diplomatic way of saying that no one really deserves the high-leverage job.

MacDougal, Beimel and Burnett are all in play for the rarest of baseball events: a Nationals save chance. MacDougal (11/22 K/BB ratio…seriously) is throwing mid-90’s fastball after mid 90-‘s fastball with little clue as to where the ball is headed. Beimel, by contrast, has used his mid-80’s “heater”, good curve and decent changeup to post a 4.14 FIP that marks him as more decent middle-man than relief ace. Burnett, like Beimel, is a former Pirates port sider who relies on a quality breaking ball (+1.22 runs/100 pitches with the slider). Burnett’s 2.66 ERA might catch your eye, but his .206 BABIP takes some of the shine off; his FIP is 4.25.

Overall, the situation in Washington is a fantasy wasteland.

Entering the 2009 season, Martin Prado wasn’t really in the immediate plans of the Atlanta Braves. The Venezuelan-born Prado made his living by subbing at any position where a need arose: second, third, first, outfield, shortstop…you name a spot, and Martin has manned it at some point.

His lumber, however, was considered fringy. Prado posted a career .300/.353/.393 line in the minors, which suggested that he could swat some singles but little else. But if one wished to be optimistic, there were signs that his overall numbers underestimated his offensive ability. As a 23 year-old at AAA Richmond in 2007, Prado produced a .316/.374/.420 triple-slash in 443 PA. A batting average-driven line to be sure, but Martin managed the strike zone well (8.6 BB%, 10.4 K%).

Prado followed up that strong year at Richmond with a .320/.377/.461 (.367 wOBA) season with the Braves in 2008. In 254 PA, he drew walks at an 8.4% clip and whiffed just 12.7%. His Isolated Power (.140) surpassed any figure he had posted in the minors. Prado didn’t venture out the zone very much (18.8 Outside Swing%; the MLB average hovers around 25 percent) and he made contact with 93.7 percent of pitches within the strike zone (87.7% MLB average).

In 2009, Martin was largely supposed to spot for Chipper Jones when the venerated switch-hitter needed a day or two off to mend. Instead, Prado has seen nearly equal amounts of time at first base, second base and the hot corner. The 25 year-old has mostly manned the keystone over the past month, as Kelly Johnson (wrist) hit the DL.

With a chance to play on a regular basis, Prado has compiled a .377 wOBA, with a .323/.384/.486 line in 248 PA. His rate of free passes drawn is up a bit (9.1 BB%), with a decrease in his already-low K rate (10.9 K%). Prado has put the bat on the ball even more frequently on pitches in the zone (95.8%, one of the 10-highest rates in the majors), and his ISO is up to .164.

Is Prado this good of a hitter? In all likelihood, he’s performing at the uppermost bounds of his capabilities right now. His BABIP has been in excess of .350 over the 2008-2009 seasons, which seems likely to regress at least somewhat. Using the Expected BABIP Calculator from The Hardball Times (discussed in more detail in this post on Placido Polanco), Prado “should” have posted a BABIP in the neighborhood of .325 over the ’08 and ’09 seasons. That would mean that Prado is more of a .300-type hitter than the .320+ cyborg we have seen as of late.

The rest-of-season ZiPS projections voice a similar opinion, calling for a .309/.365/.432 line from here until the end of the 2009 campaign. Prado has a strong grasp of the strike zone and produces scores of contact, making him a viable fantasy option. But, it would be wise to expect the sky-high average to dip to some extent, with fewer extra-base hits (.123 projected ISO for the rest of ’09).

Johnson is nearing a return to action, and it will be interesting to see how the Braves dish out playing time. From an offensive standpoint, Prado’s .350 rest-of season wOBA bests Johnson’s .340.

In three seasons at second, Johnson (a converted outfielder) has posted a -6.8 UZR/150, though he was on the positive side in ’09 prior to the injury. As a rover, Prado doesn’t have an especially large sample of innings at any position, though his early work at second looks Kent-esque. That could just be the product of working with limited data, though his minor league numbers aren’t really sterling, either. If he continues to be penciled into the lineup, Prado’s multi-position act deserves a look in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Stock Up

Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners

By now, everyone is well aware of Gutierrez’s Road Runner act in center field (the former Indian holds a +20.9 UZR/150 figure in 2009). But how many people realize that the 26 year-old has turned in a quality offensive season as well? Gutierrez owns a .352 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .295/.355/.460 line in 335 PA. That translates to +8.2 Batting Runs, which ranks in the top 10 among center fielders. Combine the sweet range with an above-average bat, and you have a guy who quietly ranks 2nd in Wins Above Replacement in center field (3.5 WAR).

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Originally a 2nd-round pick by the D-Backs back in 2006, Anderson is most often noted for his polish and four-pitch mix. But he has as nearly as much upside as any young arm in the game as well. During his rookie year, the 21 year old lefty has punched out 6.61 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.36 BB/9, good for a 4.23 FIP. Equipped with a 92 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 77 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, Anderson has placed 51.2% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3 % MLB average).

If anything, those numbers underrate Anderson’s work. He posted a 2.0 K/BB ratio in April and 1.86 in May, but improved to 3.57 in June and 6.00 in July. Take a look at the velocity readings on Anderson’s two most utilized pitches (fastball and slider) over the course of the season, along with their Runs/100 pitches value:

April: 91 MPH fastball (-0.47 Runs/100 pitches), 82.7 MPH slider (+1.62)
May: 91.4 MPH fastball (-3.32), 82.4 MPH slider (-0.63)
June: 92.6 MPH fastball (-1.73), 83.8 MPH slider (+4.41)
July: 94.5 MPH fastball (+4.09), 85.6 MPH slider (+7.03)

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Also a 21 year-old southpaw, Kershaw has mauled hitters for 8.78 K/9 in 2009. With a searing 94 MPH fastball (+1.5 runs/100, fourth among starters) and a Looney Tunes curveball (+1.79), Kershaw has managed to thrive in the majors despite walking 5.06 hitters per nine innings, with a first pitch strike percentage (52.9%) that’s about 5 percentage points below the MLB average. While better control and a third offering to keep from losing the strike zone vs. righties stand between Kershaw and acedom, it’s frightening to think that he can already dominate despite being so far from fully developed.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Smith has found himself in the starting lineup often as of late, at the expense of Carlos Gonzalez. The 26 year-old lefty hitter holds a career .297/.392/.495 line in 329 major league PA, and ZiPS calls for a .298/.369/.470 triple-slash for the rest of the 2009 season. A disciplined hitter (17.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average), Smith can be a nice asset to fantasy owners. He’s not well-known and likely needs to be seated against tougher lefty pitching (his career minor league line vs. LHP is a patient-but-punchless .276/.360/.385), but Smith holds value in NL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues. Just keep an eye on the scheduled starter for the opposition, as he’ll likely only be plugged in against righties.

Roy Oswalt, Astros

It’s hard to believe, but Oswalt is now in his 9th season in the majors. Sometimes, I get the feeling that Houston’s ace doesn’t quite get the level of attention he deserves. While he’s never been the best pitcher in baseball, he consistently ranks among the top 25. The 31 year-old righty is just a pitching metronome, steadily humming along. 2009 is no different: Oswalt holds a 3.77 FIP, with 7.01 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. His overall contact rate is down a tick (from 82.2% to 81.1%), while his percentage of contact within the zone has fallen from 88.1% in 2008 to 84.4% this season (87.8% MLB average). He has been at his best in July, with 17 K’s and just 2 free passes in 23 frames.

Stock Down

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

Hermida is a exasperating player to watch. In the minors, he looked like a Brian Giles, as a lefty stick with exceptional plate discipline (.398 OBP, 18.5 BB%). After a bumpy beginning in the majors (.310 wOBA in 2006), Hermida posted a .372 wOBA as a 23 year-old in 2007. But instead of building upon that, Jeremy managed just a .321 wOBA in 2008, as his once-pristine plate discipline eroded (27.8 outside-swing% in ’08, compared to the 25.4% big league Avg).

He hasn’t fished at quite as many outside offerings this year (24 outside-swing%, with a 3 percent increase in walk rate). But, Hermida continues to hit more like a middle infielder than a corner outfielder. His ISO was .205 in 2007, but fell to .157 in ’08 and checks in at just .140 in ’09. He’s “only” 25, but Hermida just does not look like an everyday player at this point. A plodding outfielder (career -9.8 UZR/150) with platoon issues (career. 236/.316/.378 vs. LHP) who only pops the occasional double? Is that really all there is here?

Adam LaRoche, Pirates

An impending free agent, the elder LaRoche is doing the Pirates no favors in the club’s quest to place him in another uniform. On the positive side, the 29 year-old lefty batter has drawn walks at a career-high clip (11.5 BB%), while decreasing his first-pitch strike% for the third straight season (from 60.9% in ’07, 58.1 in ’08 and 55% this year; the MLB average is 58%).

On the other hand, LaRoche’s ISO (.193) has dipped from his .230 mark in 2008, and he has a .327 wOBA that just doesn’t stand out at all at first base. LaRoche clearly isn’t a poor player, but he’s just another face in the crowd at baseball’s most powerful position. The former Brave is a career .269/.338/.486 hitter; the average first baseman is batting .276/.362/.484 in 2009. There just aren’t many clubs who can look at that production and say, “that constitutes an upgrade for us.”

Trevor Cahill, Athletics

While fellow rookie Anderson is quickly figuring out the majors, Cahill is scuffling. The 21 year-old remains a fantastic young arm, and his struggles shouldn’t be entirely unexpected considering his occasional control problems in the minors (3.7 BB/9). But it’s clear that Cahill has a ways to go. He has whiffed only 4.11 hitters per nine frames, while showing neither sharp control (3.93 BB/9) nor worm-burning tendencies (47.3 GB%).

While in the minors, Cahill was noted for possessing knockout breaking pitches. Baseball America called described a “79-81 MPH knuckle-curve, a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement” as well as “a low-80’s slider with cutter-like action.” In the show, Cahill has lacked trust in his breaking stuff. Trevor has tossed his curve less than 4% of the time, while using the slider about 6 percent. Both have been crunched (-1.86 runs/100 for the curve, -2.19 for the slider) in a small sample. I wonder if he tossed a few breakers that got hammered early on, and then went into “survival mode” and basically scrapped those pitches.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

On the surface, Burnett’s first year in the Bronx appears to be going swimmingly (8-4 record, 3.81 ERA). However, his FIP is a less-shiny 4.71. A.J. has handed out far too many BB’s, with 4.61 walks per nine innings in 2009. His K rate is also down, from the mid-nine’s in 2007 and 2008 to 8.1 per nine this year. A .283 BABIP and a strand rate (79.5%) that’s about 8 percent above his career average have helped him stave off a climb in ERA to this point, but he’s going to have to sharpen his control. Perhaps noting Burnett’s wildness, opposing batters have swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone (24.3% in ’08, 20.7% in ’09).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

The 6-7 sinkerballer has generated grounders at a 53.7% clip this year (up from 49.6% in 2008), but it’s hard to say Pelfrey has made a whole lot of progress this season. His K rate has dropped from 4.93 per nine innings in ’08 to 4.72 in 2009, while his walk rate has increased from 2.87 per nine to 3.23. Pelfrey has located just 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone. Ironically, the former Shocker has seen his fastball effectiveness drop (-0.25 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +0.82 in ’08) just as his much-maligned breaking stuff has perked up (+0.91 for the slider, +1.68 for the curve).

Heading into the 2009 season, Toronto lefty Ricky Romero was viewed as something of a disappointment. The Blue Jays ponied up $2.4 million to make Romero the 6th overall pick in the 2005 draft out of Cal State Fullerton. Many fans and analysts derided the selection, noting the club passed up more heralded talents such as Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce.

It’s not that Romero had been a “bust”, mind, you. He just hadn’t really stood out. While Tulowitzki, Maybin, McCutchen and Bruce went on to become prospect darlings and organizational building blocks, Romero entered the ’09 season as the third-best lefty pitching prospect in the Toronto system (behind Brett Cecil and Brad Mills), according to Baseball America.

His peripherals in the minors, while not poor, were bland. Romero punched out seven batters per nine innings, while generously dishing out free passes (3.8 BB/9). Baseball America called him a future “number 3 or 4 starter.” Truth be told, most teams would gladly take such production from a first-rounder. But having selected Romero at the expense of five-tool talents, the Jays were left wanting more.

So far in 2009, Romero has at least slightly eased the pain of passing on the Tulowitzkis and McCutchens of the world. In 14 starts, the 6-1, 200 pounder has compiled a 3.25 ERA. How has Romero come to post the 7th-lowest ERA in the A.L., and what should we expect moving forward? Let’s try to answer those questions.

While Romero has been legitimately impressive, a closer look at his numbers reveals a discord between his ERA and fielding-independent stats. Ricky has racked up 7.59 K/9, while issuing 3.45 BB/9. His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB ratio to root out extreme performances on flyballs) is 3.98. Not that there’s anything wrong with that: Romero’s XFIP ranks 9th in the A.L. But, he has benefitted from an 84.8% strand rate, which is a good 13-14% above the league average.

The former Titan totes a four-pitch mix, keeping hitters off balance with a 91 MPH fastball (thrown 51.9% of the time), 83 MPH slider (15.1%), 77 MPH curve (10%) and an 84 MPH changeup (23.1%). Romero’s heater (-0.83 runs/100 pitches) and slider (-1.12) haven’t been instilling fear into the opposition, but his curve has been above average (+0.26) and the changeup has been superb (+3.45).

Romero has long been noted for pulling the string well, which helps to explain his reverse platoon split (.228/.321/.371 vs. RHB, .314/.352/.559 vs. LHB). That trend was also present throughout his minor league career. According to Minor League Splits, Romero had a 4.50 FIP against lefty batters (4.56 BB/9) and a 4.25 mark against righties (3.33 BB/9).

The 24 year-old still isn’t showing the best of control. Romero has placed 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average), while tossing a first-pitch strike 56.8% of the time (58% MLB avg). On the other hand, Ricky is getting a decent number of outside swings (hitters are chasing 26.9% of his offerings out of the zone, compared to the 25 percent MLB average) and he has a quality contact rate (76.4%, 80.7% MLB avg).

Romero hasn’t been as impressive as his ERA would imply, but he has certainly been a quality starter in his first foray in the majors. He’s missing a decent number of bats with a deep arsenal of pitches, while also keeping the ball on the turf (51.8 GB%). The question moving forward will be: can he limit the walks? Intermittent control plagued Romero throughout his minor league career. For what it’s worth, ZiPS is predicting Romero to return to Earth with a big thud (5.46 ERA, 5.33 K/9 and 4.89 BB/9 during the rest of the 2009 season).

That seems awfully harsh. Granted, Romero toils in the ultra-competitive A.L. East, with a troubling history of missing his spots in the minors. And it’s also true that we’re examining what amounts to a half-season’s worth of data in the majors. But there’s nothing that screams “fluke” in Romero’s big league numbers. He definitely won’t continue posting an ERA in the low three’s, but it seems reasonable to hope for a mark in the low four’s from here on out. Romero is no future ace, but he’s also not a lost cause by any stretch of the imagination.

The sight of Detroit Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco whiffing at a pitch occurs about as often as a Halley’s Comet spotting. Since 2002, Polanco has put the bat on the ball 91.9% of the time, while the major league average has hovered around 80 percent. On pitches within the zone, Placido has connected on 96.2% of his hacks (86-88% MLB average over that time period). Not surprisingly, Polanco has just a 7.1% K rate during his major league career.

At first glance, the 34 year-old Dominican would appear to be having a typical Polanco season. He has posted the fourth-highest contact rate in the big leagues (92.9%), with the highest connect rate on pitches within the strike zone (98.1%). Polanco’s 7.9% K rate is ninth-lowest among qualified batters.

Yet, despite all of that contact, Polanco is in the midst of a lousy offensive campaign. His .308 wOBA converts to -5.7 park-adjusted Batting Runs. That places Polanco among out-machines like Seattle’s Jose Lopez and Chicago’s Chris Getz. Preseason projection systems such as ZiPS, Oliver and CHONE pegged Placido for a wOBA between .334 and .344.

So, what has caused Polanco’s forgettable 2009 season? The first thing that catches one’s eye is a .263 BABIP, leaps and bounds below his .321 mark in 2008. How much should we expect that figure to bounce back? To try and answer that question, let’s use a BABIP estimator from The Hardball Times. Derek Carty of THT developed a BABIP calculator, based on the great work that former Rotographs writer Peter Bendix (along with Chris Dutton) conducted this past winter.

In their study, Bendix and Dutton included many more variables into their BABIP estimator, going well beyond the “line drive percentage plus .120” formula that many had been using. The premise of the “LD +.120” idea is that line drives fall for hits way, way more than any other batted ball (74.1 percent of the time in the AL this year). But by including other factors such as hitter’s eye, speed score and pitches/PA, Bendix and Dutton produced a formula with a higher year-to-year correlation.

According to the BABIP estimator, Polanco “should” have a BABIP of .304 this season, compared to his actual .263 mark. If we adjust his batting line for the additional hits, Placido’s line should be closer to .297/.353/.427 than his actual .256/.312/.386 triple-slash (and that’s assuming all additional hits were singles).

Polanco is having some crummy luck on balls put in play this year, and he should bounce back close to established levels in the second half. But that’s not to say that there’s nothing to be concerned about.

Placido has seen his LD% dip from 23.9% in 2007 to 16 percent in 2009. While some of that could be scoring bias (line drives don’t exist in of themselves, and there’s a pretty sizable gap between different parks in terms of the number of line drives coded). But that is a large decrease. In place of those liners, Polanco has hit more flyballs (31.3 FB% in ’07, 38.2% this year). That’s not a particularly pleasant development for a player with limited pop. Also, Polanco has gradually expanded his zone. His Outside Swing% has climbed from 21.6% in 2006 to 26 percent this season (25% MLB average).

In all probability, Polanco will commence being the near-.300 hitter we have come to know over the years. In fact, ZiPS projects a .299/.345/.410 line for the rest of the ’09 campaign. There are some unhappy trends in his batted ball data (fewer liners, more flyballs), but it’s hard to say how much of that is Polanco and how much of that is based on the caprices of the official scorer (this is why people are so excited about Hit F/X; no more lumping batted balls into subjective categories). If you’re struggling to get production from the keystone spot, however, you could do worse than buying low on Placido.

The Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation has been something of a mess in 2009. The defending champs paid Adam Eaton to go far, far away during the spring. Then, projected #2 Brett Myers went down with a hip injury. Cole Hamels missed time with an elbow ailment. Jamie Moyer looked more like a pinata than a pitcher in the early going, though he has since settled down. The Phillies resorted to giving starts to the likes of Chan Ho Park, Antonio Bastardo and Rodrigo Lopez.

With all of those unpleasant developments, the emergence of lefty J.A. Happ couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. In 65.1 innings (10 starts) in the rotation, the 26 year-old Northwestern product has compiled a 3.03 ERA and a perfect 4-0 record. Should we expect Happ to keep the happy times rolling, or is he due for a fall?

J.A.’s peripherals suggest that he’s been more adequate than awesome. With 6.06 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 1.38 HR/9 in the rotation, Happ has a pedestrian 4.85 Fielding Independent ERA. The homer rate looks bloated, but it’s hard to say that the figure should dip much in the coming months. Happ is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.6 GB% in the majors) in a ballpark that has inflated home run production by a healthy margin. His home run/flyball rate in the rotation (11.2%) is right around the league average.
Happ has benefitted from plenty of fortunate bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP), while stranding an inordinate 88.1% of base runners while in the rotation.

While in the minors, J.A. K’d plenty of hitters with his plus changeup (9.3 K/9 during his minor league career, including 10.1 per nine with AAA Lehigh Valley in 2008). However, Happ also likes to work high in the zone with a fastball that sits roughly 88-91 MPH. Take a look at his Pitch F/X data: his fastball is straight as an arrow (1.8 inches of tailing action in on lefties), with 12.2 inches of vertical break. That above-the-belt approach didn’t cause that much damage in the minor leagues (0.7 HR/9), but Happ has surrendered 1.25 HR/9 during the course of his big league career. J.A. also doesn’t necessarily fit the “finesse lefty” profile, either, as he issued 3.5 BB/9 in the minors (3.52 BB/9 in the majors).

The purpose of this post certainly isn’t to knock Happ; he’s a perfectly useful fourth or fifth starter, and clearly a better alternative to the Kyle Kendrick’s and Park’s of the world. But, it’s probably a good idea not to get too enamored by his fast start as a starter. Heading into the 2009 season, Baseball America said the following about Happ (dubbed the 9th-best prospect in the system): “Happ lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple A…He projects as a fourth starter in the long term.”

That assessment still seems accurate to me. Happ can post a league-average K rate, while handing out a few too many free passes and homers to be more than a good back-of-the-rotation option. ZiPS forecasts a 4.93 FIP for Happ for the rest of the 2009 season. There’s nothing wrong with playing Happ in deeper leagues. Just don’t be totally surprised if some of those bloops evade gloves and the Houdini act with runners on base comes to an end.

When Dan Haren was shipped from the A’s to the Diamondbacks for a king’s ransom of prospects (Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith) in December of 2007, he was already regarded as one of the top starters in the majors. Oakland plucked the right-hander from St. Louis back in 2004 as part of the lamentable (from a Redbirds standpoint) Mark Mulder deal.

In his three seasons wearing green and gold, Haren posted FIP’s of 3.89, 4.12 and 3.70. Haren accumulated an average of 4.3 Wins Above Replacement, and his performance was worth a total of nearly $49 million to the A’s. From 2005-2007, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was a robust 3.47-to-one.

As it turns out, Haren was just getting started. Check out his numbers since heading to the desert:

2008: 216 IP, 3.01 FIP, 5.15 K/BB
2009: 130 IP, 2.70 FIP, 8.06 K/BB

The shaggy righty was worth 6.4 WAR in 2008 ($28.8M on the free agent market), and he’s on pace to obliterate that total with 4.3 WAR already in 2009. He has basically morphed from an All-Star level starter to some Curt Schilling-esque control deity.

Haren has always possessed a deep mix of pitches, but there’s really no telling what he’ll chuck to hitters these days. In his first year with Oakland back in 2005, Haren threw his fastball 59.2% of the time. This season, he has only called on the heater 47.6%. That 91 MPH offering has been dominant (tops among all starters at +2.47 runs/100 pitches; knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is a very distant second at +1.57). But that’s just the opening act for Haren:

86.7 MPH cutter (thrown 19.6% of the time): +2.67 runs/100

78.3 MPH curveball (thrown 20%): +0.13

85.3 MPH splitter (thrown 12.8%): +2.24

Haren’s cutter ranks 4th among qualified starters in total run value at +9.8 runs (a counting stat, compared to the rate stat of runs/100; some guys at the top of the leader board have high runs/100 values but pretty much never throw the pitch in question). His splitter checks in at number two in total run value, at +5.4. In other words, Mr. Haren has three out pitches (fastball, cutter, splitter), with a league-average curve in his back pocket for good measure.

Want to see confusion in the batter’s box personified? Take a look at Haren’s plate discipline stats sometime. In 2005, his Outside-Swing% was 24.1%, close to the MLB average. Hitters have chased Haren’s stuff out of the zone about 30% of the time during his Arizona tenure. His overall contact rate sat around 80% during his time with the A’s (right around the MLB average), but it’s down to 74.7% in 2009.

Haren’s First-Pitch Strike% is up nearly 10 percent since his Oakland days (from 59.2% in 2005 to 68.3% in 2009; the MLB avg. is 58 percent). Opposing batters are also more timid when it comes to taking a hack against pitches within the zone, as Danny’s Z-Swing% (pct. of pitches swung at within the strike zone) has dropped from 68% in ’05 to 62.7% in 2009 (the MLB average is about 66 percent).

Dan Haren is awesome. I know this is not a particularly shocking conclusion: everyone knows he’s great. But I’m not sure that most realize just how great Haren has become. The 28 year-old deserves a prominent place in the discussion of baseball’s best starter.

Stock Up

Garrett Jones, Pirates

Who? Mr. Jones is a 28 year-old lefty hitter who had a bitter cup of coffee with the Twins back in 2007 (.260 wOBA in 84 PA). The hulking 6-4, 230 pounder is one of many kinda-sorta-maybe corner outfielders getting a chance at playing time in Pittsburgh (Brandon Moss and Delwyn Young are also in the mix). Jones has responded by thwacking 5 home runs in his first 46 PA. While he could be a cheap source of power and has a good chance of keeping his name in the lineup, I would hesitate against getting too enthralled. Jones is a career .258/.312/.450 minor league hitter who has taken 5 tours of the AAA International League. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.257/.309/.455, 6.7 BB%) essentially makes Jones look like Pittsburgh’s version of Micah Hoffpauir.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants

Sanchez was booted from San Fran’s rotation, only to be returned to the starting five in the aftermath of Randy Johnson ’s shoulder injury. I think Jonathan, uh, responded well. The gifted, aggravating 26 year-old tossed a no-no versus the Padres, punching out 11 in the process. It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Puerto Rican native pitches in his next outing, though. Equipped with low-90’s cheese and a plus slider (+1.84 runs/100 pitches), Sanchez has punched out 9.04 hitters per nine innings. However, his walk rate (5.26 BB/9) leaves owners pulling out their hair. Whether the 6-2, 190 pounder remains in Giants duds past the deadline remains to be seen, but he should continue taking regular turns in the rotation regardless.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Pablo is no stranger to the “Stock Up” section, but his scorching first-half deserves special mention. As a 22 year-old, Sandoval has posted a .406 wOBA, ripping the seams of the ball to the tune of a .333/.385/.578 line. While the 5-11, 245 pound corner infielder will never be called restrained at the plate, he has shown promising signs in terms of working the count. Sandoval’s walk rate has climbed from 2.7% in 2008 to 7.3% this year, with a drop in his percentage of swings outside of the strike zone (53.8% to 45.3%). As a result, Pablo’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped from 70.8% to 59.4% (58% MLB average).

Sandoval has contributed 21.3 park-adjusted Batting Runs above average for the Giants. The rest of San Francisco’s usual starting lineup has posted a collective -18.5 Batting Runs. Let that sink in for a moment.

David Price, Rays

In 2009, Price has been a Three True Outcomes pitcher. While the abundance of whiffs (9.61 K/9) highlight the talent that made the Vanderbilt star the most celebrated pitching prospect in the minors, Price has also handed out free passes (6.34 BB/9) and souvenirs (1.43 HR/9) far too often. Perhaps Price has begun to turn the corner, as he outdueled Doc Halladay on July 9th (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The 23 year-old southpaw will likely toss the occasional stinker as he gains his big league footing, but there’s still every reason to think he’ll be an integral part of Tampa’s rotation. If Price can get ahead of hitters more frequently (his first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.9%), he should be able to garner more swings on pitches off the plate (his outside-swing percentage is only 18.6%, compared to the 25% MLB avg).

Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals

Formerly property of Oakland, Texas, Cleveland and Detroit, Ludwick had saw career stagnate as he dealt with the effects of a serious hip injury. The righty-hitting, lefty-chucking outfielder then revived his baseball ambitions in St. Louis, posting a .350 wOBA in 2007 and a monstrous .406 mark in 2008. While last year was almost assuredly a peak season, the 31 year-old Ludwick (Happy Birthday, Ryan!) has rebounded from some BABIP-induced valleys (.716 OPS, .156 BABIP in May, .622 OPS, .219 BABIP in June) to crush the ball for a 1.243 OPS in July. His production for the season (.357 wOBA, .264/.333/.496) is a good match for his ’07 work. ZiPS sees Ludwick performing slightly better from here on out (.368 wOBA, .273/.345/.510).

Stock Down

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers

Salty has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many this season. The 24 year-old, switch-hitting backstop was the best-known prospect in the July 2007, gift-that-keeps-on-giving Mark Teixeira swap. However, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are running circles around Saltalamacchia these days.

Salty didn’t show much pop in his trial with Texas last year (.319 wOBA, .244/.352/.365) and he whiffed like Chris Davis lite (37.4 K%), but he did work the count well (13.5 BB%). This year, he has kept the punch outs (36.3 K%) but dropped the patient approach (6.8 BB%). His O-Swing% has soared from 26.2% to 34.6%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 53% to 64%. The result? A putrid .288 wOBA. There’s still time for Salty, but he’s going to have to halt the Eric Munson impersonation.

Jason Giambi, Athletics

As Dave Cameron pointed out last month, the baseball community has an Adam Everett-like batting average when it comes to identifying when an older player is “done.” There’s usually a rush to attribute poor performance in baseball’s elder statesmen to a loss in skill, and sometimes that’s correct. But other times, Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield gets released and then starts partying like it’s 1999.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I’m not quite ready to write Giambi’s hardball eulogy; many of you will remember that he looked washed up a half-decade ago and then resumed raking. But the 38 year-old looks cooked. His performance against fastballs has cratered (-0.50 runs/100 pitches, compared to +1.01 in 2008), and things are only getting worse as the months roll by:

Giambi’s Runs/100 pitches against fastballs, by month

April: +0.24
May: -0.17
June: -0.56
July: -3.97

If one wishes to be optimistic, his .217 BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than 2008’s mark. Giambi could bounce back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ZiPS projects a .213/.347/.404 line the rest of the way. That’s just not very useful at a position where the average player boasts a .276/.363/.485 triple-slash.

Ervin Santana, Angels

(I don’t have anything against the AL West-I swear!)

On the heels of a dominant 2008 season in which he compiled a 3.30 FIP, Santana has gotten roped for a 5.72 FIP in 40.1 innings. Pitching with a damaged elbow ligament, Ervin just isn’t nearly the same hurler who used a wicked mid-90’s fastball and biting slider to punch out 8.79 batters per nine innings in 2008. Santana’s velocity is down over 3 ticks this year (94.4 MPH to 91 MPH), with a 2-3 MPH dip on the slider (83.9 MPH to 81.4).

Santana’s heater has been the worst among any starter chucking at least 40 frames (a stunning -4.1 runs/100 pitches, after a +0.11 mark in ’08). Hitters are making more contact (84.2% contact rate, up from 77.1% in ’08) and swinging at fewer outside pitches (24.7% in ’09, 31.7% in ’08). Santana looks like damaged goods.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Millwood’s regression shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as his ERA was far surpassing his peripherals. There’s still a sizable gap between his ERA (3.46) and FIP (4.73), but it has lessened after Millwood surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings. Texas’ slick leather (8th in team UZR) helps a pitch-to-contact hurler like Millwood, but he’s more serviceable mid-rotation starter than ace.

Dioner Navarro, Rays

The 25 year-old Navarro performed admirably for the Rays in 2008 (.330 wOBA), but the former Yankee and Dodger has plummeted to a .256 mark this season. He’s not getting many bounces (.245 BABIP), but Navarro’s plate discipline is non-existent (2.8 BB% in 2009, 7.4% in ’08). His outside-swing% is up from 23.2% to 27.2%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 52.8% to 57.5%. Navarro was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement in 2008, but he has been sub-replacement level in ’09 (-0.1 WAR).