For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton really hasn’t been his typical dominant self since the All-Star break, as he has a 2.20 K/BB ratio since the mid-summer classic (3.82 K/BB prior). The 25 year-old blew a save op vs. the Braves on August 7th, chucked a clean inning against Atlanta the next night and then collected a save against San Francisco on the 10th (Bengie Molina took him deep). Perhaps Broxton’s toe injury is playing a part. Still, his overall numbers are sick: 13.24 K/9, with a 2.73 Win Probability Added.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath had another successful week, collecting two saves in three innings without allowing a run. He failed to whiff a batter, a rarity given that Bell’s K rate (9.91) is well above his 8.19 mark during the 2008 season. The 6-3, 240 pound righty has dominated hitters with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.12 runs/100 pitches), as well as a pair of nasty breaking pitches (+1.24 runs/100 for the slider, +2.35 for the curve).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street started the week off well (a scoreless inning against the Cubs on the 7th), but Chicago then crushed the former Longhorn for 4 hits, 4 R and a walk in a 0.1-inning disaster appearance on the 10th. It was a rare blow-up for a guy who has posted rates of 10.41 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9, with a 2.26 WPA.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With the Diamondbacks losing 4 of their last 6 (after winning their previous five games), Qualls didn’t see much action this week. He took the hill just once, and it did not end well: he struck out the side vs. the Mets on the 10th, but he was smacked for 3 hits and 2 runs in the process. On the whole, though, the former Astro is turning in a better year than his 3.66 ERA would suggest. His FIP is 2.87, as Qualls has just plain stopped walking people (0.96 BB/9 in 2009).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor pitched twice since our last Closer Report, firing a pair of clean frames vs. his long-time team. Hoffman punched out 2 Padres, without allowing a hit. The 41 year-old still hasn’t been taken deep this season, taking him up to 35 dingerless frames in 2009. While hitters aren’t chasing his stuff out of the zone (his 23.4 O-Swing% is about 9 pct. lower than in 2008), Hoffman’s mid-80’s fastball (+2.71 runs/100 pitches) and low-70’s changeup (+4.01 runs/100) are still producing excellent results.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has been more of an arsonist than a fireman as of late. Rodriguez endured a nightmarish appearance vs. the Padres on the 7th, getting flogged for 2 hits 5 R, 1 HR and 3 BB without retiring a single batter. He pitched a scoreless inning against San Diego on the 9th, but he was back to getting beat up against the D-Backs on the 12th (2 H and a R, though he did pick up the save, again proving that most Joe Blow relievers could convert 80-90% of save ops, too). The 27 year-old’s peripherals have been crumbling for years, and his 1.77 K/BB ratio is basically half of his rate with the Angels in 2006. K-Rod’s 0.54 WPA is just 3rd in the Mets ‘pen.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano turned in a disaster piece outing vs. the Dodgers on the 6th (3 H and 3 R without retiring a batter, serving up a game-winning homer to Andre Ethier). Rafael pitched a scoreless inning the next night (no save), and then picked up his 17th SV of the year on the 8th (though he was touched up for a run). The pending free agent is punching out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, with a nasty 93 MPH fastball (+1.73 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.73 runs/100).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson took a beating against the Reds on August 7th (2 hits, 4 R, 3 BB in a blown save op), but he did pick up a save vs. Cincy the next night and whiffed four batters in a 1.1-inning appearance against the Dodgers on the 12th. The 27 year-old is benefitting from a low HR/FB rate (4.3%), but he is pitching rather well with a career-best 2.75 K/BB ratio.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde lost the strike zone during the last week of July (including 5 BB in a 2.1 inning stretch against the Cubs on the 27th and the 28th), but he appears to be back on track now. Valverde collected 2 saves this week, pitching 4 innings with 4 K’s, 0 runs and 1 walk allowed. Papa Grande’s percentage of pitches within the zone has taken a nose dive in recent years (from 59.2% in 2006 to 50.6% this year; the MLB average is 49.3%). Luckily, opposing batters are chasing more of those offerings off the dish (24.4% in 2006 to 32% this year; 25% MLB average).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Walking the tight rope: Cordero coughed up 6 hits in 3 IP this week, but he Houdini’d his way out of all those base runners while allowing one run. He picked up 2 saves along the way. Co-Co’s peripherals for the season aren’t really all that special (7.35 K/9, 3.77 BB), but an 85.7% strand rate and a 4.5 HR/FB% have permitted him to escape many jams. Odds are, he won’t continue to be so fortunate in the future.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to make my head hurt. He’s enjoying a nice season, with 6.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. But those aren’t the sort of numbers that one associates with a Gagne-like 1.20 ERA. Franklin has stranded 91.6% of runners put on base, with a .232 BABIP and a 4.5% HR/FB rate. He’s been an amazing value for those who drafted or picked him up, but the 36 year-old didn’t suddenly emerge as a shut-down, top-tier reliever. He’ll likely be overvalued next season.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps kicked off the week with a superb 2-inning, 4 K appearance vs. Arizona on August 6th, but things would quickly turn sour for Pittsburgh’s embattled stopper. Capps blew a save against the Cardinals on the 7th (giving up 2 R without retiring a batter, with Skip Schumaker taking him out of the park), but that appearance looked downright effective compared to yesterday’s drubbing at the hands of the Rockies (0.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R).

Capps has the highest K rate of his career (8.52), but he has issued a career-worst 3.52 BB/9. It won’t do his owners much good, but there are reasons to think that Matt hasn’t been near as bad as that Ponson-esque 6.57 ERA. A .391 BABIP and an inflated HR/FB rate (14.5%) have damaged his season severely. Capps’ XFIP is 4.62. He’s never really been a relief ace: Capps’ XFIP has been in excess of four since 2006.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

This just isn’t getting any better, is it? Lidge was leveled for 4 runs in 3 innings this week, including a blown save against the Cubs on the 11th. His control (5.36 BB/9) has been abominable, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone is up about 5 percentage points. Relief performance is subject to more year-to-year fluctuation, but it’s stunning to look at Lidge’s Wins Above Replacement totals from 2008 (2.2) and 2009 (-0.9). Who would have predicted that the best reliever in baseball last season would be less valuable than Chan Ho Park in 2009?

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Gregg notched a save against the Rockies on August 8th, but he took a loss against Philly on the 11th as he and Brad Lidge battled to see who could inflict more damage on their club’s chances of victory. His K/BB ratio (2.62) easily surpasses 2008’s mediocre 1.57 mark, but a 15.7 HR/FB% has assailed his season. Gregg’s XFIP (4.25) is actually the best figure he has posted since 2004.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Lindstrom (elbow) is off the DL, but Nunez nonetheless took three save chances (and converted each) this past week. The job is still ostensibly Lindstrom’s, but Matt will have to avoid those car wreck appearances that have come to define his 2009 season. On that front, it was a bad week for the former Mets prospect: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R and a homer surrendered. A .365 BABIP certainly isn’t helping, but Lindstrom is issuing 5.4 BB/9.

His fastball has declined by over 2 runs per 100 pitches compared to 2008 (+1.08 runs/100 pitches in ’08, -1.07 in ’09). Some of that is the inflated BABIP (those extra hits falling in hurt him in the linear weights formula), but when the pitch that you throw three-quarters of the time isn’t working, you have problems.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

The Nationals reeled off a stunning 8-game winning streak in which MacDougal racked up 5 saves, but the club has since dropped 3 in a row. If you take a very cursory look at the former Royal and White Sock’s season, you might think he’s pitching well (3.74 ERA, 11 for 12 in save ops). However, Mac has been an honorary member of the Mike Williams/Joe Borowski Closer Club, with an abysmal 17/26 K/BB ratio in 33.2 IP. His XFIP is 5.21.

For most pitchers, reaching the latter stages of one’s career entails making concessions to Father Time. That fastball doesn’t hop quite as much as it used to, so it’s probably time to stop challenging hitters up in the zone so often. The slider doesn’t snap like it did in the good old days, so perhaps it’s time to try and add a new pitch to the ol’ bag of tricks.

That’s the deal for most pitchers. John Smoltz took that axiom and turned it right on its head. The 6-3, 220 pound right-hander crushed opposing hitters for years in the Atlanta Braves rotation, and he was still going strong at 32 years old with the Braves back in 1999 (186.1 IP, 3.14 Fielding Independent ERA). He had, however, become increasingly fragile, and his health issues came to a crescendo prior to the 2000 season when he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Upon returning in 2001, Smoltz transitioned to the bullpen in an attempt to stay off the D.L. This kick-started a new era in his career, as he began a four-year run of dominance out of the ‘pen:

Win Probability Added totals, 2001-2004:

2001: 1.61
2002: 4.67
2003: 3.29
2004: 4.93

It’s not like Smoltz was forced to finesse his way through lineups in the ninth inning, a la Ryan Franklin. He was still dealing, sitting between 95 and 97 MPH with his fastball, snapping off wicked high-80’s sliders and high-80’s splitters that plummeted upon reaching the plate.

That Smoltz was still mauling hitters at age 37 was extraordinary enough. But he then went back in the rotation, topping 200 innings each season from 2005-2007 while posting FIP’s of 3.27, 3.44 and 3.21, respectively. His heater sat around 93, and the slider and splitter were still sharp. 2008 did not go nearly as well, as Smoltz suffered a shoulder injury that shelved him for most of the season.

He made a brief comeback as a reliever, only to blow a save opportunity and opt for season-ending surgery in June. When he was able to take the mound, Smoltz managed to punch out 36 batters in 28 frames, issuing 8 walks and surrendering 25 hits.

Over the off-season, the 42 year-old inked a one-year, incentive-laden deal with the Red Sox. He continued to mend the shoulder, taking an extended rehab assignment (27.1 IP, 21/4 K/BB between Greenville, Portland and Pawtucket) before making his Sox debut on June 25th vs. the Washington Nationals.

Upon first glance, Father Time appears to finally snatched away Smoltz’s ability to blow away hitters at the highest level. He made 8 starts for Boston, getting bombarded for an 8.38 ERA and a 2-5 record in 40 innings pitched. That’s the sort of line that would make Adam Eaton and Sidney Ponson giggle. The Red Sox designated Smoltz for assignment recently, ending the reclamation project of the former Cy Young award winner. Surely Smoltz is done, right?

I’m not so sure. Assuming that Smoltz wishes to continue his career elsewhere, he may still have something to offer. Despite the horrific ERA, John managed to strike out 7.43 batters per nine innings, while issuing 2.03 BB/9. However, a .390 BABIP, an inflated HR/FB rate (14.8%) and an uncharacteristically low 56.9% rate of stranding runners have conspired to make Smoltz look like a pinata.

Smoltz’s stuff, while not vintage, looked good enough to combat most lineups. His fastball sat at 91 MPH (down a tick from the previous few years), with an 85 MPH slider and splitter (he also tossed an occasional high-70’s curveball).

Smoltz’s plate discipline stats suggest that hitters still found that mix difficult to handle at times. He managed a 33.1 Outside-Swing% (30.6 O-Swing% since 2002). Opponents made contact with a few more pitches placed within the strike zone (87.9%, right at the MLB average and 3.8% above his overall rate since 2002). It’s not like batters were roping every pitch he threw: his 18.1% line drive rate was actually below his marks from 2005-2007.

The dichotomy between Smoltz’s actual ERA and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (4.37) is massive. Taking only a cursory look at his numbers, Smoltz appears to have a fork sticking out of his the back of his jersey instead of his customary “29.” However, the long-time Brave still appears to have something left in the tank, if teams are willing to look past the grisly superficial stats.

Stock Up

Everth Cabrera, Padres

A Rule V pick-up from the Colorado Rockies organization, Cabrera is a switch-hitting water bug with speed to spare. The Nicaragua native seemed like a long shot to stick on the big league roster for the duration of the 2009 season, as he hadn’t played above the High Class A level.

While Cabrera missed a chunk of time with a left hand injury, he has surpassed expectations in San Diego. In 213 plate appearances, the 22 year-old shortstop is batting .263/.341/.414, with a .344 wOBA. He’s doing a nice job of working the count (9.7 BB%, with a 53.5 First-Pitch Strike% that’s about 5 points below the MLB average) while swiping 15 bags in 17 attempts (an 88% success rate). It’s probably best not to get too carried away with a few hundred PA’s of performance, but the Padres may have pilfered an everyday shortstop from a division rival.

Derek Holland, Rangers

In 91 innings, Holland has a 5.04 ERA. That sounds a trifle disappointing from such a heralded prospect, but his peripherals are actually quite strong. The 22 year-old lefty, ranked by Baseball America as the 2nd-best talent in a fertile Texas farm system, has punched out 7.52 batters per nine innings, while keeping the walks in check as well (2.97 BB/9). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR per fly ball rate) is 4.25.

Holland’s recent success (he dominated Seattle on July 30th and the Angels last night, with a middling start against Oakland in between) has many taking notice. His K/BB ratio is gradually climbing, but the big difference lies in his BABIP figures:

May: 2.33 K/BB, .369 BABIP
June: 2.63 K/BB, .360 BABIP
July: 2.78 K/BB, .280 BABIP
August: 2.4 K/BB, .182 BABIP

Justin Masterson, Indians

With Carl Pavano headed to the Twin Cities in an August waiver deal, Masterson steps into the Tribe’s starting rotation. The 24 year-old sinker/slider pitcher, acquired in the Victor Martinez swap with Boston, will get a chance to prove he’s capable of handling a lineup multiple times while keeping those pesky left-handers at bay. On the positive side, Masterson has improved his strikeout and walk rates this season (8.54 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 in 79 IP), stifling right-handed hitters as usual (career .210/.287/.307 line vs. RHB in the majors).

Still, the same questions about Masterson’s viability as a starter apply. With a low-three quarters arm angle and no real changeup to speak of, the San Diego State product is susceptible to southpaw batters (.273/.370/.446 in the big leagues).

Billy Butler, Royals

Butler was a hitting prodigy in the minors, authoring a .336/.416/.561 line, walking 11.5 percent of the time and whiffing just 15 percent. The righty batter kept his head above water in major league stints in 2007 (.341 wOBA) and 2008 (.318), but the 22 year-old is adding some pop to his game in 2009. Butler isn’t a prolific power hitter at this point or anything, but his ISO is up to a healthy .183 for the season and he has deposited 13 souvenirs in the bleachers. On a team that features many “swing first, ask questions later” hitters, Butler is a beacon of hope. And the best is yet to come.

David Price, Rays

The much-discussed Vanderbilt product had a bumpy month of July (20 K’s and 18 BB in 27.2 IP), but Price began to turn it around in July (20/10 K/BB in 23.1 IP) and began the month of August with a bang (6 IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB vs. Boston on the 5th). The 6-6 lefty did a much better job of getting ahead of hitters in July, with a 64.2 First-Pitch Strike% that trumped June’s paltry 48.8% rate.

Stock Down

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox

Lowrie’s 2009 season has been a complete bust. The switch-hitting Stanford product held his own as a rookie last season (.326 wOBA in 306 PA), and he entered the spring looking to usurp Julio Lugo as Boston’s everyday shortstop. Lugo is gone, but Lowrie won’t be the one getting a permanent lineup spot. The 25 year-old has dealt with a lingering left wrist injury (which required surgery) and a balky knee, and he heads back to the DL with numbness thought to be related to the aforementioned surgery.

Delmon Young, Twins

The 1st overall selection by the Rays in the 2003 amateur draft, Young tore through the minors. As a player several years younger than the competition, he compiled a .318/.363/.518 line and made his major league debut at the age of 20. In 131 PA with Tampa in 2006, Delmon posted a .343 wOBA. Sure, the line was batting average-driven and he swung at everything (50.3 O-Swing%), but it’s highly impressive for someone that young to hold their own against major league competition.

Flash forward to 2009. Young is nearing 24 year of age, and he has made absolutely no progress toward becoming a major league-caliber hitter, much less a star. After compiling wOBA’s of .315 in 2007 and .324 in 2008, Young is down to a putrid .274 this season. His approach, if you want to call it that, consists of hacking at anything within a 10-mile radius of the Metrodome.

In 245 PA, Young has a 2.9% walk rate, with a strikeout rate (29.2%) is over 10 percent above his career average. While his outside swing percentage is trending down, we’re speaking in awfully relative terms. Young’s 36.7 O-Swing% in 2009 is still nearly 12 percentage points above the MLB average, and is one of the five highest rates among all hitters. Delmon is a near lock to put himself in the pitcher’s clutches by falling behind in the count: his 68.2 First-Pitch Strike% is 10 percentage points above the big league norm and is the 2nd-highest clip among batters with 200+ PA. With the exception of curveballs, he’s not hitting anything well.

That “he’s young” tag is becoming quite tiresome. It’s certainly possible that he improves, but there’s just no evidence that Delmon Young at 23-24 is any more polished than the 20 year-old hacker we saw back in ’06.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Looking for a fresh start with Seattle after an acrimonious end to his Pirates days, Snell tossed a pretty good ballgame against the Rangers on August 2nd (6 IP, 2 R, 4 K). His second start, however, was disastrous. Lasting just 1.1 frames, Snell walked 6 hitters while coughing up 3 runs vs. the Rays.

The 27 year-old right-hander is perplexing as they come. He was an above-average major league starter as recently as 2007, when he posted a 4.01 FIP (7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9) in 208 innings. The wheels have completely fallen off since then, though. Snell walked 4.87 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has issued 5.42 BB/9 in ’09.

His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has fallen precipitously, to 46.4% this year (3 percentage points below the MLB average). Snell’s Outside Swing%, 28.2 in 2007, is just 22 percent in 2009. He posted a 63.7 first-pitch strike% in ’07, but that figure is a lousy 53% in ’09. Hitters have wised up and just aren’t offering at Snell’s stuff. His 41.8 Swing% is 5th-lowest among starters tossing 80+ innings.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Inked to a 2-year, $18.5 million deal this past off-season, Renteria has done his best Yuniesky Betancourt impression in 2009. The 34 year-old owns a sordid .275 wOBA, second-worst among SS taking at least 300 trips to the plate (Yuniesky is first). Renteria’s pop had been on the wane for several years, but it has all but disappeared this year as he deals with an ailing elbow:

2006: .144 ISO
2007: .138 ISO
2008: .111 ISO
2009: .062 ISO

The former Marlin, Cardinal, Red Sock, Brave and Tiger just hasn’t been able to catch up with fastballs this season. His run value per 100 pitches against the heater is -1.17, one of the 10 worst rates among major league hitters. Combine the slack bat with ordinary D, and you have a sub-replacement player (-0.1 WAR).

Zach Duke, Pirates

This has little to do with Duke himself. Rather, it involves the cast of characters surrounding the southpaw when he takes the mound. As a hurler who uses an 88 MPH fastball, 81 MPH slider, 74 MPH curveball and an 81 MPH change to paint the corners, Duke is highly reliant upon the quality of his defense. His career strikeout rate per nine frames is 4.57, and sits at 4.42 in 2009.

In past years, the pitch-to-contact starter was a very poor fit on a Pirates team that featured plodding fielders. Duke suffered from high BABIP figures from 2006 to 2008 (.327, .360 and .327, respectively). In ’09, the Bucs featured a strong group of defenders to start the season, and Duke’s BABIP has dipped to .279 for the year.

Unfortunately for Zach, most of the fellows are gone now. Andrew McCutchen’s scouting reports, minor league data and early big league work (+3.4 UZR/150) peg him as a definite upgrade over Nate McClouth in CF. But the other changes aren’t so promising:

2B: Freddy Sanchez to Delwyn Young
SS: Jack Wilson to Ronny Cedeno
LF: Nyjer Morgan to Lastings Milledge

Cedeno does not appear to be a big problem at short. However, second base and LF figure to take significant hits. Sanchez (career +4.4 UZR at 2B) has been replaced by Young, a corner outfielder who has not played the keystone spot since he was a Dodgers prospect back in 2005. Morgan’s superb range gives way to Milledge, who was a very poor defender in CF. Perhaps he’s an average corner outfielder, but that’s still a big hit relative to the man he took over for.

Duke might end up giving up more bloops during the next few months because of laggardly leather behind him. He wouldn’t be a bad sell-high candidate.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo has fired 3.2 scoreless innings to begin August (including 2 saves vs. the White Sox on the 2nd and the Blue Jays on the 4th), fanning three while surrendering 1 walk and 5 hits. Rivera now boasts a 2.82 Win Probability Added, ranking 4th among all relievers. The Panamanian might not light up the radar gun quite as much as in years past (his cutter averages 91.4 MPH now, about 2 MPH slower than before), but that offering remains as deadly as ever (+2.27 runs per 100 pitches thrown).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe had an extended stretch without an appearance, striking out the side vs. the Angels on July 31st and then not returning to the bump until August 7th (he surrendered a walk and a run to Detroit). By whatever metric you would like to use, Nathan is showing no signs of slowing down at age 34. He’s whiffing 11.39 batters per nine innings, limiting the free passes as usual (2.11 BB/9) and generating ample swings on pitches outside of the strike zone (32.7 O-Swing%).

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria was extremely busy to end the month of July, but the Rule V gem has chucked just one inning in August as the Royals lose five of seven to begin the dog days of summer. Joakim has K’d 11.37 batters per nine innings this season, while posting the lowest XFIP (3.04) of his big league tenure.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Is Papelbon back on track? Not that the 28 year-old has turned in a poor 2009 season, but an inflated walk rate and a subsequent dip in Outside-Swing% suggested that the typically stingy hurler was missing his spots. Over his last three appearances (3.1 IP spanning from 7/31 to 8/7), Papelbon has punched out five without allowing a walk or a hit. The 6-4, 225 pound righty has a 4.30 XFIP for the season, 1.8 runs higher than his 2008 total.

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has endured an uneven beginning to the month. He gave up a homer to Yuniesky Betancourt (no, really) on August 1st, tossed 2.2 scoreless frames against Boston on the 4th and 5th, but again was taken deep yesterday in a soul-crushing loss to the Mariners. Howell has walked a batter in all four of his appearances this month, after issuing one free pass during the entire month of July. Recent struggles aside, J.P. has turned in an excellent 2009 season (10.54 K/9, with a 3.15 XFIP).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Think you had a bad week? Odds are, it was better than Bobby Jenks’. The Angels castoff hasn’t pitched since August 1st, as he deals with the excruciating pain caused by kidney stones. Jenks had a rough month of July (8 R, 13 H in 7.1 IP), but hopefully his struggles will, um, pass.

In the short-term, Matt Thornton or Octavio Dotel could pick up a save chance.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

The 6-3, 240 pound rookie picked up a save on July 31st vs. Toronto and collected another August 5th against the Rangers. Bailey doesn’t generate a ton of outside swings (his 25.2 O-Swing% is right around the MLB average). Instead, he uses his 94 MPH fastball, 90 MPH cutter and 78 MPH curveball to challenge (and pummel) hitters. Bailey has placed 53.7% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average), and opponents have put the bat on the ball just 74.1% of the time on those offerings (the lowest rate among relievers).

David Aardsma, Mariners

The well-travelled Aardsma continued his charmed 2009 season, collecting a save vs. the Royals on August 4th and then striking out the side against Tampa Bay yesterday in a non-save situation. On the down side, the former Rice star has walked a batter in each of his last three appearances (taking him back up to 5.08 BB/9 for the year). However, Aardsma is punching out near 11 batters per nine innings. He has accumulated 1.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season, tied with Joe Nathan for the second-highest total among ‘pen arms. Aardsma’s career WAR total prior to ’09? 0.1.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After getting torched to end July (6 runs, 2 homers vs. the Indians on the 27th and 28th), Fuentes had plenty of time to recoup. He didn’t get into another game until August 5th, when he surrendered another run (and another dinger) against the White Sox. The port sider’s WPA sits at a modest 0.44 for the season, as hitters aren’t chasing his stuff off the plate as often (23 O-Swing%, down from a career-high 29.4% in 2008). Fuentes is having a hard time getting ahead of the opposition (his 53.2 First-Pitch Strike% is 5 percentage points below the MLB average), and when he does put a pitch in the zone, they’re doing a better job of making contact. Fuentes’ 86.3 Zone-Contact% is well above his 80.2% career average.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

According to manager Ron Washington, Francisco is officially the closer in Texas again (until he contracts the Bubonic Plague or has a Looney Tunes anvil fall on him, that is). In between three DL stints, Francisco has compiled a nifty 34/8 K/BB ratio, displaying a nasty splitter that has hitters eagerly fishing off the plate (28.4 Outside-Swing%, well above his 22.7% career average). Given Frank’s frequent medical mishaps, Wilson is well worth keeping.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood got walloped again on deadline day (2 R, 1 BB, 1 HR in a blown save op vs. Detroit), but he recovered to toss three clean frames to begin August (1 save, vs. Minnesota on the 6th). Kerry is still in the red in terms of WPA (-0.38), as opposing batters have chased just 19.5% of his pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Velocity sure isn’t the problem, as Wood has actually picked up steam as the year has progressed (he’s throwing his fastball at an average of 96.4 MPH this month). A 15.9 HR/FB rate has made Wood’s ERA (4.85) look worse than it should (his XFIP is 4.26). Still, that’s not what the Indians signed up for over the winter.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Perhaps feeling the effects of his aching toe, Downs was taken to the wood shed in late July and early August (8 R, 5 BB, 11 H in 5 IP from 7/21 to 8/1). The 33 year-old is back on the shelf now, leaving closing duties to Frasor. An undersized righty, Frasor possesses a deep mix of pitches (including a 94 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, and an 86 MPH changeup/splitter). He generally hasn’t gotten hitters to chase his stuff out of the zone (18.8 career O-Swing%) and has a walk rate around 3.9 per nine frames for his career. However, Frasor has parlayed an increase in outside hacks (25.1% in 2009) to a pared-down walk rate (2.33 BB/9).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

The 32 year-old Dominican Republic native began the 2009 campaign showing unusually sharp control (2.57 BB/9 in 21 frames in April and May), but Rodney has since returned to his heartburn-inducing ways (6 BB/9 in 27 IP since). And you wonder why Jim Leyland smokes three packs a day?

Rodney’s percentage of pitches within the strike zone has been better in August (51.1%), but his monthly totals nicely illustrate his deteriorating ability to locate:

Zone%, by month:

April: 58.7
May: 48.8
June: 45.0
July: 41.8

(the MLB average is 49.3%; Rodney’s career avg. is 50.8%)

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson had a sour run of appearances in late July (3.1 IP, 3 R, 2 HR from the 20th to the 28th), but he ended the month with a two-inning save. To begin August, the 6-5 right-hander has given up 1 run and a homer in three innings (he collected his 3rd save of the year vs. the Blue Jays yesterday). Johnson isn’t the worst option if you’re jonesing for saves. But, as a low-K closer on a talented-but-still-building O’s club, he’s also about as interesting as his name.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton pitched just once this week, tossing a scoreless inning against the Brewers on August 5th. Battling through a big toe injury, the 25 year-old experienced a bumpier month of July (6 runs in 11 innings, with 7 BB’s). It could be a complete coincidence, but Broxton’s pitch usage did shift in July. He’s throwing his 98 MPH fastball about 71 percent of the time for the year, while mixing in an 88 MPH slider 26 percent (he also tosses a rare changeup). But in July, Jon used his fastball over 81 percent of the time, while breaking out the slider just 17 percent. Would a slider be more likely to cause discomfort for his busted digit?

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell worked a scoreless inning in a non-save situation vs. Milwaukee on July 31st, then racked up saves on August 1st vs. the Brewers and the 3rd against the Braves. Heath’s 2.83 Win Probability Added ranks 1st among all National League relievers, as he’s laying waste to opposing hitters by either blowing them away (10.59 K/9) or inducing a weak grounder (51 GB%).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street can’t be stopped right now. The former Athletic flummoxed hitters in July (10.1 IP, 12 K, 0 BB, 2 H), and he started off August in style by whiffing two while getting another save vs. the Reds on the 2nd. Huston’s 5.3 K/BB ratio is a career high. Street’s 92 MPH fastball (+0.6 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH changeup (+0.23 runs/100) are faring well, but his sinister 85 MPH slider (+5.24 runs/100) has been death to batters.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected saves July 31st and August 3rd vs. the reeling Mets (no runs allowed). The sinker/slider righty notched another vs. Pittsburgh on the 5th, though the Bucs did manage to take him deep (Shane Spen…er Garrett Jones homered). Is Qualls morphing into a different type of reliever? His K rate is down, as is his walk rate. He’s putting more pitches in the zone, and opposing batters are connecting more often:

2007: 8.49 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 51.7 Zone%, 85.5 Z-Contact%
2008: 8.67 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 53.6 Zone%, 87.3 Z-Contact%
2009: 7.29 K/9, 0.99 BB/9, 54.6 Zone%, 89.9 Z-Contact%

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Back in familiar surroundings, Hoffman pitched a clean inning against the Padres in San Diego on August 2nd (a non-save op). Hell’s Bells picked up a save in his next appearance against the Dodgers the following night (though he did surrender a run), and then notched another on the 5th vs. L.A. Somehow, Hoffman has yet to be taken deep in 33 innings this season. Despite the microscopic ERA, Hoffman’s 2.7 K/BB ratio is actually his lowest mark since 1993 (a rookie season split between the Marlins and Padres).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod twirled a scoreless inning against Arizona on deadline day, then picked up a cheap 0.1 inning save vs. the D-Backs the following night. However, the Cardinals torched the first-year Met for 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk on August 4th. Rodriguez just hasn’t pitched all that well this season: his K/BB ratio is 1.85, and his XFIP is up yet again. The 27 year-old scarcely resembles the shut-down Angel of years past:

K-Rod’s XFIP by year:

2004: 2.63
2005: 2.97
2006: 3.22
2007: 3.53
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.27

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano got a save vs. the Dodgers on August 1st and pitched a scoreless inning against the Padres on the 5th, but his week took a sour turn yesterday in another tilt with L.A. Rafael was roped for 3 H and 3 R (including an Andre Ethier HR), and he took the loss as the Dodgers came back to win 5-4. Still, it’s hard to complain about his larger body of work: 12.06 K/9, with a 1.43 WPA.

Not that Soriano has problems with batters of either hand, but the Ethier bomb does make you wonder why manager Bobby Cox has stopped using he and Gonzalez based on matchups. Ethier has a pronounced platoon split during the course of career (.304/.377/.521 vs. RHP, .260/.320/.394 vs. LHP).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson worked twice this past week, notching a save vs. Philly on August 1st, then retiring one batter against the Astros on the 5th. The 27 year-old righty might not be an elite option, but he has made some legitimate progress this season. Wilson’s K rate (9.63) remains very close to last year’s mark, but he has lowered his rate of free passes issued from 4.04 in ’08 to 3.21 per nine in 2009. The mixture of K’s, grounders (50.4 GB%) and better control make Wilson a safe pick on a contending club.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde did collect two saves this week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he pitched well. Papa Grande gave up two runs in 3.2 innings, including a dinger to Matt Holliday. The 30 year-old has punched out 9.87 batters per nine innings during an injury-marred 2009 season. That’s still plenty good, but it is the 4th straight year in which his K rate has fallen. Valverde’s trademark splitter has still been nasty (+1.02 runs per 100 pitches thrown), but his mid-90’s gas (-0.64 runs/100) hasn’t been its usual dominant self (+1.07 runs/100 career). There’s an interesting trend going on with Jose fastball. He’s throwing it much less, and throwing it harder:

2006: used 84.4% of the time, 93.5 MPH
2007: used 77.8%, 93.4 MPH
2008: used 74.1%, 95.5 MPH
2009: used 65.0%, 95.4 MPH

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made just one appearance this week, chucking two scoreless innings against Colorado in an eventual extra-innings loss. Co-Co has a 1.70 ERA on the season, but his XFIP (4.01) tells a different story. The righty has posted his lowest full-season K rate (7.65) since 2000. A .238 BABIP and 4.9 HR/FB rate have hidden the overt signs of decline, but batters are making more contact and swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to confuse, with two more spotless innings to his ledger this week (one save, vs. Houston on July 31st). His 3.77 XFIP is over two runs higher than his actual ERA (1.70), as the crafty former starter has benefitted from a .242 BABIP and a microscopic 4.8 HR/FB rate. This has to end at some point, but Franklin and his half-dozen pitches sure are fun to watch.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The Mad Capper turned in a superb week. Capps collected a save versus the Nationals on July 31st, then tossed three more scoreless frames in two appearances against the Diamondbacks. In all, he punched out 8 batters in 4 innings, without walking anyone. While he’s still throwing a 93 MPH fastball about 70 percent of the time overall, Capps has increased the usage of his secondary pitches (an 84 MPH slider and a hard 87 MPH changeup). During that four-inning tear to begin August, the 25 year-old used his slider nearly 50 percent of the time. Capps’ K rate for the year (8.36) is well above his career mark (6.95).

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

The Fighting Irish alum threw two quiet innings this week, including a save vs. the Rockies yesterday. A positive development to be sure, but it’s just difficult to trust the guy as he battles a balky knee. His walk rate (5.4 per nine) remains stratospheric, and opposing hitters have made contact with 84.7% of pitches thrown within the zone (nearly 10 percent above his career mark).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Just when you thought it was safe to trust Gregg again, the bespectacled reliever goes out and coughs up 6 hits, 4 runs and three homers in his first two August appearances (1.1 innings vs. Florida). Gregg’s peripherals (9.24 K/9, 3.73 BB/9) aren’t all that bad, but a 15.2 HR/FB% (his career rate is 8.2%) has put a serious dent in the overall numbers. This is the sort of thing that can happen in the 60-80-some innings that a reliever tosses in any given season. Gregg is much the same guy he has always been (namely, a good middle reliever), but a few extra flyballs scrape over the fence and the season line looks crappy.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Fresh off a DL stint for an achy elbow, Lindstrom pitched two scoreless innings to begin the month. Uncharacteristically, he didn’t K or walk anyone in either appearance (Aug. 2 vs. the Cubs, Aug. 5th vs. the Nats). Matt’s velocity was down slightly (95.3 MPH), but that doesn’t seem like much of a concern. Of much greater importance is his placing his pitches better: Lindstrom’s walk rate sits at 5.81 per nine innings in 2009.

Mike MacDougal/Sean Burnett, Nationals

What a strange week, huh? MacDougal and the Nationals had three saves during the entire month of July, yet the transiently surging club has strung together five wins in a row (with four saves for Mac). Still, with a 0.6 K/BB ratio in 31 innings, MacDougal has been anything but a late-game stopper.

Check Back tomorrow for the A.L. Closer Report.

It seems as though outfielder Lastings Milledge has been around forever, doesn’t it? Despite just turning 24 in April, the intriguing yet infuriating Milledge is now on his third major league club.

The 12th overall selection in the 2003 amateur draft, Milledge was once the darling of the New York Mets system. A fantastic athlete with a pretty good idea of what he was doing at the dish, Milledge also possessed more power than his 6-0, 190 pound frame suggested. He quickly climbed up the prospect ranks, as Baseball America dubbed him the best talent in the Mets system in 2005 and 2006.

By the time the ’06 season rolled around, Milledge was a 21 year-old posting an outstanding .277/.388/.440 line at AAA Norfolk. Sure, his base stealing efficiency needed a ton of work (13 swiped in 23 attempts), but it’s difficult to complain about a center fielder with a good eye (12.3 BB%) and doubles power (.163 ISO). Milledge’s first foray into the majors later that season was not a smashing success (.241/.310/.380 in 185 PA) and apparently veteran players weren’t lining up to be his friend, but Lastings looked like a fixture in Queens.

Milledge made the Mets out of spring training in 2007, but soon found himself back in Norfolk. He suffered a foot injury and got caught up in the ceaseless New York tabloids for a rap song he appeared in, but he did take 206 trips to the plate for the big league club. All things considered, Milledge’s success was promising. His control of the strike zone wasn’t superb (6.6 BB%, 22.9 K%), but he hit .272/.341/.446, good for a .174 ISO in his age-22 season.

However, Milledge fell out of favor with the Mets, and the Amazin’s shipped their former prized pupil to the Nationals in November of ’07 for a seemingly underwhelming package of catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church. The move looked like a steal for the Nats, who acquired a young, up-the-middle talent for a light-hitting backstop and a platoon-type outfielder.

Milledge got his first chance at everyday playing time in the bigs in 2008, taking 587 plate appearances in Washington. While his .268/.330/.402 line wasn’t bad, it also wasn’t the sort of progress that one would hope for from such a highly-touted player.

That keen plate discipline exhibited at Norfolk failed to manifest, as Milledge walked just 6.8% of the time. Lastings offered at 31.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (well above the 25% MLB average) and put himself behind in the count often. Milledge’s First-Pitch Strike% was 61.2%, compared to the 58.6% big league average.

He didn’t put a charge into the ball (.134 ISO), while also suggesting that the whole center field thing? It wasn’t gonna work out (Lastings’ UZR/150 in the middle garden was an abysmal -20.1). While it’s likely that he’s not that bad out there, it’s not like Milledge’s minor league work in center offered great promise of a turnaround.

While he opened the season with Washington in 2009, Milledge soon found himself back in AAA after a poor start. He suffered a broken finger that required surgery, then was shipped to Pittsburgh along with Joel Hanrahan for UZR demi-god Nyjer Morgan and lefty reliever Sean “the Pirates are a joke, thank god I’m with the Nats now” Burnett.

Lastings’ digit is now healed, and he was recently recalled by the Bucs to take over the everyday left field spot. Milledge’s acquisition has often been hailed as a great buy-low opportunity for Pittsburgh, as the team was said to surrender “only” a fourth outfielder in Morgan. That claim likely sells Mr. Morgan short- his decent bat and superb range make him a perfectly acceptable regular– but the Pirates did attempt to sell high on Nyjer while shooting for the stars with Milledge.

With Milledge not projecting to be the asset once imagined in the field or on the base paths (his career stolen base percentage in the minors is 68.7%, and 67.4% in the majors), he will need to recapture that strike-zone judgment that seemingly skipped town when he left the Mets organization. He’s a below-average fielder playing a corner spot, where the cumulative line is .266/.341/.434. Can Milledge meet that standard? Most pre-season projections concluded that he would be in the ball park:

CHONE: .279/.350/.435
Oliver: .271/.333/.429
ZiPS: .280/.343/.452

Milledge is not a lost cause by any means, but he’s far from the sure-fire asset that he projected to be just a few short years ago. Lastings will need to make some lasting changes in his plate approach if he wishes to shed the bust label in the ‘Burgh.

Stock Up

Rich Harden, Cubs

Fantasy owners pretty much know what to expect from Harden by this point: transient brilliance, followed by a stint or two on the disabled list. 2009 has been little different (10.56 K/9, 3.77 BB/9), though an inflated homer rate (1.74 HR/9, 16.7 HR/FB%) has put a dent in his ERA, which sits at 4.50. The 27 year-old Canadian has been considerably better than that: his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.64. That’s exactly the same as his 2008 figure (when his ERA was slightly over two).

Rich has been on a tear lately, with 32 K’s, 5 walks and 5 runs allowed in 24 innings over his past four starts. Harden is one of those great “what if” pitchers. He crushes hitters with a fastball/changeup combo (he scrapped a plus slider because it caused him discomfort), and just about no one makes contact against him (his 67.9% contact rate is the lowest among starters tossing 90+ frames). If only we knew that he would make his next start…

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Some in the Pittsburgh media choose to ignore age, durability, service time and baseball economics, howling at every trade the Pirates make. To hear some tell it, it’s as if Pirates management is Kurtz-like, putting veteran Bucco heads on poles and keeping all the money and ivory for themselves- “The horror! they traded someone I know for someone I don’t!”.

Meanwhile, McCutchen is showing that these purportedly worthless, alien beings received for those beloved vets (sometimes referred to as “prospects”) can actually turn into studs. One of the very few successful remnants of the Dave Littlefield era, McCutchen is a 22 year-old with a shed full of tools. In his rookie campaign, the ’05 first-rounder is more than holding his own (.292/.347/.484, .365 wOBA in 239 PA).

McCutchen’s three-homer outburst on Saturday versus the Nationals is not something that should be expected on a regular basis (he slugged .423 in the minors), but he has some thump in his bat and a decent eye at the plate. Owners will also take note of his outstanding raw speed- McCutchen has swiped 10 bags in 12 tries in the majors, though his work at AAA Indianapolis last season (64.1% success rate) suggests he still needs some work on reading pitchers.

Jeff Niemann, Rays

A 2004 first-round pick out of Rice, Niemann punched out 9.1 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues. However, he whiffed just slightly above five per nine in the majors from April-June. The 6-9 right-hander has picked up the pace since then, with 20 K’s in 26.2 July frames (6.8 K/9) and 7 K’s in 8 IP during his first start of August. Niemann also limited the free passes, with 4 walks in July and none in his first outing this month. In fact, the 26 year-old is pounding the zone more and more as the year goes on:

Niemann’s Zone%, by month (the MLB average is 49.3%)

April: 46.2
May: 51.2
June: 53.2
July: 59.6

Kendry Morales, Angels

Heading into the 2009 season, the Cuban switch-hitter figured to be something of a drag on Los Angeles’ offense. First base is a position where if a player doesn’t mash, they’re a liability. And Morales’ preseason projections looked bleak:

CHONE: .327 wOBA
Oliver: .333
ZiPS: .325

Instead, the 26 year-old has popped 23 home runs, slugged .581 and posted a .383 wOBA. That’s pretty impressive, but believe it or not, that ranks 12th among first baseman. Morales is handling fastballs well (+0.98 runs/100 pitches), but throwing him a curveball has pretty much been the worst idea, ever (+5.13 runs/100).

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Jimenez entered the 2009 campaign with plenty going his way. After all, the 25 year-old sat in the mid-90’s with his fastball (and it’s not straight as an arrow), with a pair of nasty breaking pitches and a nice changeup as well. The big question was: could he hit the strike zone more often?

The answer appears to be a resounding “yes.” Jimenez has lowered his walk rate from 4.67 per nine innings in 2008 to 3.38 in ’09, while missing more bats (8.02 K/9, up from 7.79). That’s awfully impressive, when you consider that Ubaldo putting fewer runners on first means fewer chances to K hitters (his percentage of batters punched out is up from 19.8 to 21.1).

Obscene stuff, improved control, and groundball tendencies (52.6 GB%)? What’s not to like?

Stock Down

Jarrod Washburn, Tigers

The newest Tiger has turned in a pretty nice season, as his 2.39 K/BB ratio is the highest mark of his career. But a 2.64 ERA pitcher he is not: Washburn (a flyball, pitch-to-contact lefty residing in friendly Safeco) has benefitted from a .249 BABIP (second-lowest among starters) and his 79.5% strand rate is over five percent above his career figure.

Heading to Detroit, Washburn will still pitch in front of a quality defense (the Tigers place 5th in team UZR), but it would be prudent to expect that shiny ERA to rise at least somewhat. Washburn’s rest-of-season ZiPS ERA comes in at 4.73, which is probably a little on the harsh side. But if you can barter the soon-to-be- 35 year-old southpaw for something substantial, this would be the time to do it. Washburn isn’t bad by any means, but he’s more of a low-four ERA pitcher than the ace that his ERA would indicate.

Brandon Wood, Angels

Wood needs a hug, an off-season trade, or both. The long-time prospect was optioned back to AAA on deadline day, after another big league call-up in which he mostly sipped Gatorade and waited to be sent back to Salt Lake.

In three years and 220 PA of scattershot major league playing time, Wood has posted a 2.8% walk rate, while punching out 31.1% of the time. The righty batter has plenty of pop (he’s hitting .313/.366/.587 at AAA, though Salt Lake is a hitter-friendly venue), but L.A.’s surprisingly adept offense leaves Wood toiling in AAA. His questionable control of the zone leads to some less-than-stellar Major League Equivalencies: according to Minor League Splits, Wood’s 2009 season translates to .253/.294/.462 at the highest level.

Nick Blackburn, Twins

As a pitcher who puts the ball in play as often as anyone (only John Lannan has a lower K rate among starters), Blackburn is subject to the caprices of his defense. That worked out pretty well during the first three months of the season…

BABIP by month

April: .307
May: .273
June: .271

…but July was most unkind to the to the sinker/cutter righty. Blackburn suffered from a .347 BABIP, surrendering 23 runs in 31.1 IP. If you’re expecting ace-like production from Nick, he’ll sorely disappoint you. Blackburn is basically a right-handed Zach Duke, as a strike-tossing starter who will occasionally have a month where more of those squibbers find holes. Unfortunately, the Twins haven’t been particularly adept with the leather (ranking 27th in team UZR).

Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins

If Bonifacio is still in your starting lineup, then you’re likely a masochist, in last place, or both. The switch-hitting infielder, formerly of the D-Backs and Nationals, has shown a dizzying propensity to make outs this season. His .275 wOBA “bests” only Jason Kendall and Willy Taveras among qualified batters, but he’ll now have a reduced role in Florida with the club’s acquisition of OBP fiend Nick Johnson.

Jorge Cantu will slide over to third base, with Bonifacio apparently platooning with Chris Coghlan in left field. Cantu has been statuesque at third (-14.5 UZR/150 career), but even with a lead glove, the move improves Florida’s chances. Some quick, back-of-the-napkin math comparing a Cantu 1B/Bonifacio 3B infield to a Johnson 1B/Cantu 3B alignment has the Fish coming out with a 1-1.5 win upgrade over the rest of the season.

Jack Cust, Athletics

Oakland’s DH/”outfielder” has experienced a goofy 2009 season. Long a Three True Outcomes hero, Cust has gradually put the ball in play more often:

2007: 21 BB%, 41.5 K%, 31.7 HR/FB%
2008: 18.8 BB%, 41 K%, 29.7 HR/FB%
2009: 14.5 BB%, 33 K%, 15.2 HR/FB%

Has Jack consciously changed his approach at the plate in order to put the bat on the ball more often? It seems like it. Cust’s Outside-Swing% is up to 19.8%, from 2008’s 15.3% rate. He’s swinging at more pitches within the zone as well (69.4%, compared to 62.8% in ’08), while making contact with 80.6% of those pitches within the zone (71.1% in 2008). Overall, Cust has offered at 43% of pitches seen, well above his 38.3% clip in 2008.

If Jack is trying to shorten his swing and make more contact, he might want to stop. Cust posted a .245 Isolated Power in ’08, but that figure is down to .172 this year. A less-powerful, less TTO-ish Cust has been a league average hitter (.335 wOBA).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

(Quick Note: The N.L. Closer Report might be a little shorter than normal this week: with the trade deadline today, our site’s bandwidth is getting one heck of a test, and accessing the player pages is taking longer).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon tossed a scoreless inning vs. Florida on the 25th (earning his 7th win of the year), but he blew a save chance in an epic extra-inning affair vs. St. Louis on the 29th. He did rebound to pick up his 24th save against the Cards last night, however. Hampered by a toe injury, Broxton has issued 7 walks in 11 innings during July. After posting insanely low BABIP figures in April (.118) and May (.224), Broxton has been plagued by plenty of bloops and duck snorts in June (.333) and July (.320). George Sherrill is now in town, but there’s no reason to think he’ll mount any sort of challenge for the closer’s role.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell chucked just one inning for the Fathers this week, notching his 25th save vs. the Reds on the 28th. Heath’s walk rate has remained similar to his 2008 mark (3.3 BB/9 this year, 3.2 in ’08), but his K rate has spiked to 10.7 per nine. Bell has taken the punch out act to a new level this month, with 12 K’s in 6.2 IP.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor appeared twice this past week, issuing 2 walks in 0.2 IP against Washington on the 28th and collecting a save (2 K, 1 H) vs. the Nats the next night. Hoffman has yet to be taken deep in 30 IP. That figures to end sometime soon, though the has raised his groundball rate drastically over the past three seasons (from 30.2% to 44.8%) while lower his FB% from 37.2 to 24.1.

Huston Street, Rockies

Equipped with a nasty slider, Street continues to slaughter opposing hitters in the late innings. Huston has allowed just one run during July, with 11 K’s, no walks and 2 hits allowed. Obviously, he’s had some good fortune to allow so few base runners (.105 BABIP), but it’s hard to argue with the results. Street’s 5 K/BB ratio is nearly double his 2008 mark (2.56).

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls is clearly back on track, posting a .229/.245/.271 opponent line in July after June’s .279/.279/.535 mark. He’s not punching out many hitters as of late (4.57 K/9 in June and July, after posting a 9.86 figure in April in May), but the sinkerball pitcher has issued just a single walk over his past 21.2 innings, and holds a 58% groundball rate for the season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod coughed up 3 hits, 2 R and a HR against the Astros on the 25th, then threw a scoreless inning vs. Colorado in a none-save chance on the 27th. While his cursory ERA or save numbers won’t reflect it, Rodriguez’s peripherals continue to erode. His K/BB ratio this season is just 1.92, down for the fourth straight season.

In Control

Jose Valverde, Astros

Did I curse Valverde or something? After we mentioned his increase O-Swing% and pretty solid control, Papa Grande issued 5 walks in 2.1 innings vs. the Cubs on the 27th and 28th. Though neither was a save chance, Valverde evaded danger and escaped with his scoreless innings streak intact (9.2 IP since the Fourth of July).

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Perhaps it’s time to move Soriano up. The former Mariner has a sparkling 4.06 K/BB ratio in 2009. Gonzalez (3.15) has certainly been no slouch, but Soriano has taken the last nine saves for the Braves. Health permitting, Soriano is an elite fantasy option. Alas, it’s hard to put him in “Death Grip” territory when he has missed so much time during the course of his career.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson notched 2 saves and a W this week, with 4 K’s in 3 IP. San Fran’s stopper has gradually given up fewer extra base hits as the year has gone on:

Slugging Pct. by month:

April: .390
May: .380
June: .227
July: .189

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Much like the other N.L. closer named Francisco, Cordero has a great-looking ERA (1.79) with murkier peripherals. Co-Co has an uncharacteristic 7.4 K/9 mark (9.3 career), but a low .252 BABIP and HR rate (0.4 per nine) have made him look like a lock-down reliever. Is the 34 year-old losing the ability to fool hitters? His swinging strike percentage is down for a third straight season, and is his lowest rate going back to 2003.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

I know that I must sound like a broken record regarding Franklin, but he’s a good middle reliever enjoying the season of his life. With 6.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9, the 36 year-old is hardly pitching poorly. But a 1.36 ERA? With a .223 BABIP? That bushy goatee must have some talismanic power.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Just when it looked like Capps might be turning a corner, he has done his best Mike Williams impression as of late. Matt gave up 2 runs (including a homer to rookie Gerardo Parra) on the 26th, then took a loss in an extra-inning contest with the Giants on the 29th. A .358 BABIP has certainly done him no favors, but Capps’ usual pristine control has not been present. He has walked 4 batters per nine innings, leaps and bounds above his career 1.7 mark. Capps’ name has often come up in trade rumors, but the Bucs would likely be selling low if they part with him.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

The embattled Lidge threw two spotless innings in non-save ops on the 26th (Cardinals) and 27th (D-Backs), but he then served up two runs (including a dinger to Mark Reynolds) against Arizona on the 28th. With 5.7 BB/9, “Lights Out” has been sub-replacement level in 2009.

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Gregg gave up 3 hits and two runs against Cincy on the 24th, collected two very cheap 0.1 inning saves vs. the Reds the next two nights, then struck out the side in a non-save change against Houston yesterday. Grabow was brought in from the ‘Burgh, but the changeup artist has often missed the mark this season (5.3 BB/9, the 3rd straight year that his walk rate has increased). Odds are, Gregg has nothing to worry about.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Lindstrom is near a return to action, and is expected to resume closer duties. Hopefully the time off aided the former Met’s MIA control and lowered swinging strike rate:

2007: 34.7 Ball%, 12 SwStrike%
2008: 34.8 Ball%, 9.4 SwStr%
2009: 37.5 Ball%, 8.9 SwStr%

(the averages for a reliever are 36.5 and 9.5, respectively)

Mike MacDougal/Joe Beimel/Sean Burnett, Nationals

Not to be rude, but does it even matter? The last save recorded by a Nats pitcher went to MacDougal, all the way back on the 22nd. In most ‘pens, Mac would be on the brink of an all expenses paid trip back to the International League (10/16 K/BB in 23.1 IP). Want an example of velocity being only one component of an effective fastball? MacDougal chucks his in the mid-90’s, yet has a swinging strike rate (4.1%) is less than half the average rate for relievers (9.5%).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

It was more of the same for Rivera this week, as he tossed two innings (one save) while punching out four hitters. Opponents have made more contact against Mo this season (his Z-Contact% of 90.4 is by far the highest we have dating back to 2002), yet he has the highest K rate (10.18) since 1996. Rivera’s swinging strike percentage is down for a third straight season (from 11.8% in ’07 to 7.9% in ’09; 9.5% average for relievers), but he has seen an increase on his called strike percentage (17.7% to 20.2%; 16.1% average for relievers).

Over that same span, hitters are swinging at fewer of Rivera’s pitches within the zone (66.8% in ’07 to 61.9% in ’09; 65.7% MLB average). Mo is putting fewer of his pitches within the zone (53.4% in ’07 to 46.3% this season), and hitters are still swinging at the same number of outside pitches (about 35%). However, they’re making over 10 percent more contact with those outside pitches, which helps to explain the increase in Rivera’s foul ball percentage (23.1% this season; 17.8% average for relievers).

All of that is a rambling way of saying:

– more called strikes, due to a decrease in Z-Swing%, fewer swinging strikes due to an increase in Z-Contact%
-Rivera is putting fewer pitches in the zone, but hitters are still happily chasing a ton of those offerings. They’re making contact more often on those outside pitches, which has led to an increase in foul balls (which puts Mo up in the count and makes it easier for him to K a batter)

Rivera might not be outright dominating hitters as often by making them swing and miss, but opponents have actually put the ball in play just 16.5% of the time this year, according to StatCorner (his lowest rate dating back to 2003).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe recorded three saves this week (taking him up to 29 for the year), working 2.1 spotless innings as the Twins took three from the White Sox. The 34 year-old has shown no signs of decline in 2009. His 5.44 K/BB ratio is the second-highest mark of his career (5.94 in 2006), and his 66.7 First-Pitch Strike% is the highest we have dating back to 2002. Hitters have just a 13% line drive rate against the Minnesota relief ace, and they’re getting jammed often. Joe holds a 20.5 Infield/Flyball rate, third among all relievers.

Joakim Soria, Royals

The Mexicutioner had a busy, successful week. The former starter recorded a (gasp!) six-out save on the 25th vs. Texas, then collected two more saves against the O’s on the 27th and 28th. Soria has a devastating 14/1 K/BB in 11 July innings. The 25 year-old is garnering outside swings at a career-best 30.9 percent clip.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon endured a rocky week. He recorded a save vs. Baltimore on the 24th while giving up two hits and a walk, then was smacked for 3 H, 3 R and a walk against the A’s on the 28th. He did notch a silent save against Oakland yesterday. The 28 year-old has been at less than his best this season: his walk rate remains above four (4.09 BB/9), with a 3.69 FIP that’s a full run higher than his career mark.

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. continues to roll, with three innings of scoreless relief (one save, one win) and 4 K’s since out last Closer Report. Howell was very impressive in 2008, but he’s been even better this season. His K/BB ratio has climbed from 2.36 to 3.08, he’s inducing more outside swings (22.2% to 26.9%), and he has lowered an already-stellar contact rate (73.8% to 68.1%).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Bobby has hardly been King of the Hill in July. In 7.1 frames, he has served up 13 hits, 8 runs and 4 walks. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Jenks may be able to be acquired at a less-than-premium price from an angered owner. His 4.33 ERA looks horribly disappointing, but Jenks has suffered from a .338 BABIP, with a HR/FB rate (15.2%) way above his career average (8.7). His K/BB for the season is 3.7, well above 2008’s 2.24 mark. It may sound crazy at first, but Jenks’ 2009 is probably better than his 2008 work, bloated ERA and all.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Overall, Bailey has turned in a superb rookie season. He has whiffed 10.2 per nine innings, with 3.30 BB/9 and a 2.75 FIP. Perhaps he’s tiring a bit, though. The 6-3 righty has given up 4 runs in 7.1 IP since July 19th, with 8 H surrendered. He’s a converted starter, but Bailey has thrown more innings than every reliever except Chicago’s D.J. Carrasco and Los Angeles’ Ramon Troncoso.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Outside of a nightmarish, 5-run drubbing by the Orioles on July 8th, Aardsma has not been scored upon this month. While the well-traveled righty will never be known for surgical control, his wild tendencies have at least been partially under control over June and July (3.38 BB/9 in 24 IP). Aardsma’s approach is pretty darned simple: throw one mid-90’s fastball after another (he has used the pitch over 88% of the time), with excellent returns (+2.16 runs/100). Opponents aren’t chasing his stuff out of the zone often (20.1 O-Swing%, about 5 percent below the MLB avg.), but they’re having problems connecting when Aardsma does put one over the plate (his 77.1 Z-Contact% is over 10 percent below the MLB avg).

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

L.A.’s stopper had been money for most of July (8.1 IP, 7 K, 2 BB from 7/2 to 7/23), but Fuentes has been anything but en fuego in his last two appearances. In two spots vs. the Indians on the 27th and 28th, the lefty was mauled for 6 runs, 6 hits and two homers, without retiring a single batter. Fuentes’ 4.29 ERA overstates his struggles (his FIP is 3.78), but he hasn’t exactly been a shut-down option in high-leverage situations (his WPA is +0.45). The soon-to-be 34 year-old’s 90 MPH fastball has been effective (+0.84 runs/100 pitches), but his slurvy mid-70’s breaking pitch (-0.40) and changeup (-3.59) are not getting the job done.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs posted minuscule walk rates earlier in the season by virtue of getting a boatload of swings on pitches off the plate (his O-Swing% for the season sits at 34.8%). Will opposing batters continue to be fooled by his sinking high-80’s heater and big curve? Scott has surrendered 7 runs in 6.2 July innings, with 6 free passes. Downs’ O-Swing% has remained lofty this month (37.7%), but he has placed just 42.1% of his pitches within the zone (49.3% MLB avg), with a First-Pitch Strike% of only 52.6 (58.2 MLB avg). One bad month isn’t cause for panic, but you would think that hitters would begin to show more restraint if Downs continues to miss the mark with his stuff.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Woody only worked once this week for the under-construction Indians, notching a save vs. the Angels on the 27th. The 32 year-old’s main issue for the season has been fastball control: his mid-90’s gas has posted a run value of -1.07, while Wood’s near-90 MPH cutter/slider (+0.61) and 80 MPH curve (+1.87) have often had the desired effect. With a -0.53 WPA for the season, Kerry has been exactly replacement-level to this point a year after notching 2.2 WAR with the Cubs. Paying good money for even established relievers is a risky proposition, as the Tribe will surely attest.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on the DL yet again, this time with pneumonia)

Francisco is making progress toward a return, but Wilson surely wouldn’t mind if the seemingly cursed closer takes his time on the rehab trail. The 28 year-old lefty has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings, with 3.8 BB/9 in 45 IP. There’s nothing wrong with those rates, but Wilson’s 2.80 ERA is pretty far ahead of his 3.61 XFIP.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney has given up just one run this month, with 12 K and 4 BB in 9 IP. The changeup-centric reliever does not appear to have any immediate threats challenging him for 9th-inning duty. Rodney is pulling the string even more than usual in 2009, throwing his 84 MPH changeup 42.1% of the time, with a +2.65 run value per 100 pitches (his best mark since 2005).

Jim Johnson, Orioles

With George Sherrill now in Dodger blue, the 26 year-old Johnson would appear to be the best candidate to claim the closer role.

A 5th-round pick by the O’s back in 2001, Johnson looks like a power pitcher but isn’t. Sure, he’s 6-5, 225 and chucks his fastball near 95, but he has a career 5.46 K/9 mark in the majors. Johnson posted a dubious 2.23 ERA in 2008- he posted rates of 4.98 K/9 and 3.67 BB/9, but managed not to give up a single dinger in 68.2 IP. To his credit, he has improved his peripherals in ’09 (6.52 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 in 48.1 IP). Johnson uses the aforementioned fastball more than three quarters of the time to induce grounders (the pitch has 8.2 inches of tailing action on righties, over 2 inches above the norm). With that offering, as well as an 80 MPH curve and a hard changeup, Johnson has induced grounders at a 55.6% clip during his career.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

Once upon a time, in a land far far away, Andy Marte was considered one of the best prospects in all the land. The Dominican third baseman signed with the Atlanta Braves back in 2000, and by the time 2004 season came to an end, few doubted that he was a future star.

Marte had the glowing scouting reports. In its 2005 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America gushed that his “ability to drive the ball to all fields is outstanding and getting better”, while also claiming that “his potential as an all-around impact player is unquestioned.”

Marte had the numbers as well. As a 19 year-old playing in the High-A Carolina League in 2003, the righty batter compiled a .285/.372/.469 line in 541 plate appearances. His K rate was somewhat high (20.1% of his PA), but not prohibitively so. Marte displayed power (.184 ISO) and patience (12.4 BB%) as a teenager in advanced A-Ball, a level where most players are closer to the legal drinking age.

The 6-1, 205 pounder followed that up with another tasty .269/.364/.525 triple-slash in 450 PA at AA Greenville in 2004. He maintained his control of the zone (12.9 BB%), while hitting for a ton of power (.256 ISO). The K rate crept up a little (23.3%), but it wasn’t as though he was the Chris Davis of the Southern League or anything.

As a 21 year-old in the AAA International League in 2005, Marte managed to post a .275/.372/.506 line in 460 PA. It was more of the same for Marte: walks (13.9 BB%) and extra-base hits (.231 ISO) by the bucketful. Even his whiff rate headed in the right direction, as Marte punched out just 18 percent of the time. His first exposure to the major leagues was certainly nothing to brag about (.140/.227/.211 with Atlanta), but 66 plate appearances of poor hitting were hardly cause for great alarm.

It was mighty difficult to punch a hole in his prospect status at this point. Andy was young relative to the levels at which he played. He showed a keen eye at the plate. He seemed to tame his contact issues. Heck, even his defense was sweet. Marte looked like yet another home-grown star for the Braves.

Then, something very peculiar happened. The Braves traded their gifted young third baseman, shipping him to Boston for Edgar Renteria in December of 2005. Young, cost-controlled players are worth their weight in gold (and top-rated position players tend to fair the best), so seeing Marte switch unis was hardly expected.

Then, we seemed to enter the Twilight Zone when the Sox then re-gifted him to the Indians in January of 2006, as part of a trade to acquire Coco Crisp. A top-rated prospect traded twice in one-offseason? Nonetheless, Baseball America remained steadfast: Marte possessed “everything teams want in a third baseman”, according to the 2006 Prospect Handbook.

Now Tribe property, Marte was sent to AAA Buffalo to begin the ’06 season. The 22 year-old, who demolished the International League the prior year, was…just okay. In 394 PA, Marte batted a rather tame .261/.322/.451. His once-pristine control of the strike zone went a little south (8.7 BB%, 22.7 K%), but the Indians were still anxious to try out their shiny new hot corner prospect. The club called him up in late July. Marte’s first extended time in the bigs wasn’t really anything to write John Schierholtz about, though. In 178 PA, Andy hit .226/.287/.421, with a 7.3 BB% and a 23.3% whiff rate.

While Marte didn’t exactly hit the ground running in the majors, Cleveland was committed to letting him find his footing at the highest level. Or, at least it seemed that way. Marte made the team out of spring training in 2007, but then proceeded to flail to the tune of a .553 OPS in April. After just 41 PA, the Indians pulled the plug and sent him back to AAA.

Instead of re-establishing himself in the organization’s plans, Marte did a career face-plant. He batted just .267/.309/.457 in 379 PA. Shockingly, Marte’s once-pristine plate discipline went down the toilet. He walked just 5.6% of the time, while punching out 18.2 percent. Whether he was pressing to get back to the majors or not, Andy scarcely resembled the seemingly can’t-miss Braves prospect of years past. It was like he started getting batting tips from Juan Uribe.

2008 was little better. In 257 PA with the Tribe, Marte posted a paltry .221/.268/.315 line. He didn’t wildly hack at every pitch seen (Marte’s Outside-Swing% was right around the 25% MLB average), but Andy often found himself down in the count. His First-Pitch Strike% was 63.4% (58.6% MLB average). In survival mode and in the pitcher’s clutches, Marte walked just 5.6% and K’d 22.1%. His power (.094) was non-existent.

How far had Andy fallen in the eyes of talent evaluators? The Indians designated him for assignment this past winter, and no one claimed him. No other GM felt the out-of-options third baseman was worth a look.

Just when it looked like Marte would have to buy a ticket to get back into a big league stadium, he went on a tear at AAA Columbus in 2009. Andy clubbed opposing pitchers for a .327/.369/.593 line in 326 PA, with a robust .267 ISO.

What are we to make of Marte at this point? On the positive side, he’s hardly ancient at 25 years of age, was going postal on International League competition, and his 16.7 K% was rather low. On the other, he’s still not working the count all that well (6.8 BB%), and a .345 BABIP suggests that his batting average-driven line will come down some.

Prior to the 2009 season, CHONE was the most optimistic projection system regarding Marte’s future (.248/.316/.421). But that forecast does not take into consideration his resurgent hitting at AAA (per Minor League Splits, Marte’s Major League Equivalent line is .292/.326/.498).

The truth probably lies somewhere in between those two lines. While it’s not a perfect comparison, Marte calls to mind a Joe Crede-type, with good pop and a slick glove helping to compensate for an aggressive, lower-OBP approach at the plate (it’s strange to say that about a guy who used to walk in upwards of 13% of his PA, but that was a long time ago now).

From a fantasy perspective, Marte is well worth a look in AL-only and deep mixed leagues. With Ryan Garko gone, Andy should get a decent amount of playing time at first base when V-Mart is behind the dish (though it’s possible he might have to contend with Matt LaPorta at some point, if the Indians don’t like his range in the outfield corners). While he seems like a long shot to reach those prognostications of stardom, Marte is at least back on the radar screen.