For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton began August with a rough stretch of appearances (4 runs, 3 HR in 5 IP from the 5th to the 15th), but the big righty has allowed just 1 run in 11.2 IP since. Jon’s fastball velocity for the season sits at 97.7 MPH. In each season in the big leagues Big Jon has increased the zip on his heater (he threw “only” 94.4 MPH in ’04, 95 in ’06, 95.2 in ’07 and 96.3 in ’08). As if that pitch weren’t enough to contend with (+1.14 runs/100 pitches thrown in 2009), Broxton’s high-80’s slider is even nastier (+3.78).

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath collected four saves this past week, whiffing 6, walking zero and allowing 0 runs in the process. In 56 frames this season, Bell has posted a career-best 10.13 K/9, with 2.89 BB/9. Both his 94 MPH cheese (+2.25 runs/100) and low-80’s breaking stuff (+1.24 for the slider, +0.96 for the curve; some of these pitches could be mixed but you get the point) are working exceptionally well.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has not pitched since Sept. 1, as he is battling a bout of biceps tendinitis. The injury isn’t expected to keep the resurgent Rockie out for too long, but lefty Franklin Morales is filling the role in the meantime.

The 23 year-old Venezuelan was a highly-touted starting pitching prospect by virtue of his low-90’s heat and slow, sharp-breaking curveball. Those gifts helped Morales punch out a batter per inning in the minors. However, herky-jerky mechanics and a subsequent lack of control (5.2 BB/9 in the minors) have led some to question his ability to be efficient and face lineups multiple times.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman was awesome in August, with an 11/1 K/BB and 2 runs allowed in 11 IP. He has also started off September with a bang, striking out the side versus the Cardinals on the 3rd. Hell’s Bells hasn’t been as dominant as the 1.71 ERA would suggest (his BABIP is a little low at .269, and his HR/FB% is a microscopic 2.1%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, derived from a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) is more solid than spectacular at 3.63.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Saves have been few and far between for K-Rod (three in July, five in August), though he did notch one against the Cubs yesterday. Any way you want to cut it, Rodriguez is in the midst of his worst season in the majors. His K rate (9.4 per nine innings) is a career-worst, as is his 4.92 BB/9 mark. After compiling Win Probability Added totals ranging from 3.09 to 4.98 between 2004 and 2008, K-Rod has a 0.87 WPA in ’09. I have shown these figures before, but they really do illustrate the gradual downward slope in Rodriguez’s performance:

XFIP, by year:

2004: 2.63
2005: 2.97
2006: 3.22
2007: 3.53
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.21

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano scuffled in early August (5 runs and 2 homers allowed in 5 IP from Aug. 1st to the 15th), but he has since allowed 2 runs in his past eight frames. However, those two runs have come in his past two appearances. Soriano allowed a runner to cross the plate vs. Florida on Aug. 31st (non-save op), then served up a tater to Dan Uggla the next night (he still got the save). Rafael will turn 30 this off-season, and he makes for a very interesting free agent case. He’s obviously electric when healthy (12.39 K/9 in 2009), but he missed practically the entire 2004, 2005 and 2008 seasons with injuries. Soriano is basically the relief equivalent of Rich Harden.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson racked up two saves in three appearances this week, striking out two and walking one. The 26 year-old has punched out a career-best 10.09 batters per nine frames, while lowering his walk rate from 4.04 per nine in 2008 to 3.55 this season. Wilson’s XFIP is a quality 3.31 in 2009. He’s more than just a hard-throwing, mo-hawked curiousity: he’s a worthy fantasy option.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has yet to make an appearance in September. He ended August with a pair of scoreless, 2-K outings (vs. Arizona on the 30th and a save op against the Cubs on the 31st). Papa Grande has posted rates of 10.47 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9 in his walk year, while getting opposing batters to chase his pitches out of the zone 31.5 percent of the time.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Close to inking a two-year contract extension with the Red Birds, the 36 year-old Franklin did not surrender a single run in 11 IP during the month of August. Continuing the tight-rope act that has come to define his 2009 season, Franklin evaded danger. He struck out just four batters, while not displaying his typically strong control either (six walks).

Financial terms don’t seem to be available yet for Franklin’s extension, but hopefully the Cardinals aren’t paying him as though he has experienced some massive breakout in 2009. His BABIP is .230, his strand rate is near 90 percent, and his HR/FB% is just 3.5%; all of those things scream “regression to the mean.” Ryan’s ERA is 1.37, while his XFIP is nearly three runs higher at 4.28

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero’s control has been MIA, as he has issued six free passes in his past 5.2 IP. Francisco’s peripherals this season (7.67 K/9, 4.15 BB/9) don’t really jive with his 2.24 ERA (his XFIP is 4.10). Opposing batters aren’t chasing Cordero’s stuff as much (his O-Swing% has dipped from a career-best 36.4% in 2007 to a league-average 25.5% in 2009), and he’s not doing a great job in terms of getting ahead in the count (57.1 first-pitch strike%, 58.2% MLB avg).

Matt Capps, Pirates

With the Buccos adrift for a seventeenth straight season (sigh), Capps has done precious little in recent days. Pittsburgh has lost eight straight ball games, and Capps has pitched just once this week (a scoreless inning vs. Cincy on the 1st; sorry, no save). A flyball hurler (career 35.8 GB%), Capps has experienced all sorts of issues with the long ball this year (1.62 HR/9). He hasn’t been particularly unlucky in terms of the percentage of flyballs becoming round-trippers (12.7 HR/FB%). A .376 BABIP has most assuredly contributed to his six-plus ERA (6.09), but his XFIP (4.60) isn’t exactly the stuff relief aces are made of.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Baby steps: since his last disaster piece (3 runs, including a HR, allowed without retiring a batter vs. Pittsburgh on Aug. 25th), Lidge has collected three saves in three scoreless appearances. If you’re looking for a silver lining in a bitterly disappointing campaign, Lidge has issued just one walk in his past 6.1 frames. The overall numbers, obviously, are still poor (4.75 XFIP, with the worst WPA among relievers).

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman

Marmol continues to cause plenty of indigestion around Wrigleyville, oscillating between dominant and downright unable to find the strike zone. The slider-centric reliever picked up three saves this past week, striking out five and walking two in 3 scoreless innings. Marmol’s walk rate this season (8.23 BB/9) is truly astonishing. As one might expect, he’s often falling behind the hitter (50.9 first-pitch strike%). From there, it’s a matter of whether Marmol can tame his biting 83 MPH breaking ball.

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Is it time to just label Nunez as Florida’s ninth-inning option? The string-bean right-hander has logged every save op for the Fish for a considerable time now. In 59.1 innings this season, Nunez has posted rates of 8.19 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9, with a 4.20 XFIP.

Lindstrom, meanwhile, seemed to enter the Twilight Zone in August. The high-octane, control-challenged reliever surrendered five runs in 11 innings, but it’s how he did it that’s bizarre. Lindstrom punched out just six hitters, while not walking a single batter (he has chucked 2.2 walk-less innings in September as well).

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

Get better, Chad: Qualls’ 2009 season came to an abrupt, painful end when he dislocated his left kneecap on the last out of Arizona’s Sunday tilt with the Astros. Qualls is expected to undergo surgery, though he’s supposed to be ready for the start of the 2010 season.

With Qualls on the mend, the D-Backs will hand the ball to righty Juan Gutierrez. The 26 year-old was actually acquired in the same swap that brought Qualls to the desert (along with Chris Burke) in exchange for Jose Valverde in December of 2007. Gutierrez totes mid-90’s heat, though an 83 MPH slider has been his most effective offering (-0.32 runs/100 for the fastball, +4.34 for the slider). In 80.2 major league innings, the Venezuelan has punched out 7.92 batters per nine innings, with 3.68 BB/9.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal turned in a very nice month of August (14 IP, 10/4 K/BB, 5 H, 0 R). But before you get too excited, consider that August was also the first time that the former Royal and White Sock struck out more batters than he walked in 2009. To start September, Mac allowed a run and two walks vs. San Diego on the 2nd and then pitched a scoreless frame against the Marlins yesterday (2 K, 1 BB). Hitters facing MacDougal know that they’re going to get something hard: he’s throwing a 96 MPH fastball nearly 88 percent of the time, while mixing in the occasional mid-80’s slider.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo is on yet another tear, having tossed 6.2 scoreless innings since he gave up a dinger on Aug. 11th (6 K, 2 BB, 2 H). Rivera’s K/BB ratio sits at 6.78, with a 3.47 Win Probability Added that places second among all relievers. The all-time great is locating far fewer pitches within the strike zone this season (44%, 49% MLB avg). However, opposing batters are going after those outside offerings frequently (34.8 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Mr. Rivera is second in WPA. Who’s the leader, you ask? That would be Papelbon. His WPA sits at 4.48, and the 28 year-old has hit the mark far more often lately (6.2 IP, 12/1 K/BB ratio since August 24th). Not surprisingly, Papelbon’s return to dominance begins with that blistering mid-90’s fastball:

Papelbon’s Runs/100 with his fastball, by month:

April: +0.64
May: +0.90
June: -0.04
July: +3.04
August: +1.02

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has been so thoroughly dominant for such a long period of time that his pitching line from Sept. 2nd against the Pale Hose (2 H, 4 R, 2 HR) requires a spit-take. The typically iron-fisted stopper has endured a rough patch lately (11.2 IP, 12 H, 7 R 18/8 K/BB from Aug. to Sept). Nathan’s velocity held steady during that rocky month-plus of pitching, and even with a sour August and beginning of September, his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate) is 3.07.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim ended August poorly (0.2 IP, 3 R and a HR allowed on the 24th vs. Cleveland), but he enjoyed an extended vacation and returned with a quality two-inning appearance vs. Oakland on the 1st (4 K, though he did walk two). The two-out saves have become a common occurrence for Soria, a happy development given the Mexicutioner’s deep arsenal and background as a starter. In a 2009 season shortened by shoulder problems, Soria has punched out 11.32 per nine innings, with 2.83 BB/9. He’s getting ahead of hitters or inducing first-pitch contact often, with a first-pitch strike% of 65.9 (58.2 MLB avg).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

A quick look at Jenks’ line would lead one to believe that he has been much worse in 2009 than in 2008. After all, his ERA is over a full tick higher (2.63 in ’08, 3.66 in ’09). However, Bobby’s K/BB ratio has spiked from 2.24 to 3.38. He’s throwing harder (95 MPH in ’09, 93.8 in ’08), and opposing hitters aren’t making as much contact against his stuff (78.4% contact rate in ’09, 84.5% in ’08). Jenks’ XFIP is 3.66, which is actually lower than his ’08 mark (3.86). The root cause of his ’09 struggles is a ballooning HR/FB rate (15.6%). Bobby’s career HR/FB rate is 9.1, and the average for a pitcher tends to hover around 11-12%. Jenks could be a bargain on draft day next year. He’s still the same guy.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Oakland’s rookie closer has not issued a free pass since July 25th, a stretch of 14 innings in which he has whiffed 10 and allowed 2 runs. Bailey’s first-pitch strike% shot up to 66.7% in August, well above his 60.1% season average. In 72 frames in ’09, Bailey has posted rates of 9.5 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9. The sub-two ERA (1.88) has something to do with a sub-.240 BABIP (.239), but he has been legitimately excellent. Be it Bailey’s searing 94 MPH fastball (+2.04 runs/100 pitches), 89 MPH cutter (+1.59) or 78 MPH curveball (+2.71), hitters just aren’t getting good hacks against his stuff.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Believe it or not, wild man Aardsma is working on a walk less streak of his own. The relief nomad has found a home in Seattle, and he hasn’t allowed a batter to take ball four in his past seven frames (8 K, 0 R). Picked up from the Red Sox for A-Ball lefty Fabian Williamson before the season, Aardsma has been worth 1.8 WAR in 2009.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. gave up five H.R.’s in August, walking 9 hitters and surrendering 7 runs in 12 IP. He has begun August with 1.1 scoreless innings over two appearances. Bumpy August aside, Howell has compiled rates of 10.57 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 on the whole, with a 3.39 XFIP. Even the best relief arms go through stretches of bad pitching; don’t jump ship based on a few flammable outings.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes ended August with four clean save ops, but September began with a 2 hit, 2 walk appearance against the M’s on the 2nd. Fuentes’ WPA is 0.84 in 2009, compared to 2.21 in 2008. His mid-70’s breaking ball hasn’t been sharp in his first year with the Angels (-0.69 runs/100), which could help to explain the uptick in his contact rate (79.1% in ’09, 73.3% career average).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Francisco has racked up three saves already this month, closing the door in both ends of a double-dip with the Blue Jays on the 1st and notching another vs. Toronto the next night. Frank has turned in a banner campaign between a trio of DL stints, with a 4.18 K/BB ratio. His mid-80’s splitter has often been smacked during the course of his career (-0.52 runs/100), but that split has been superb in 2009 (+2.92). Consequently, Francisco has relied upon the tumbling pitch more often (nearly 20% of his pitches thrown, compared to about 10% in years past).

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Save opportunities have been few and far between for the scuffling Jays (8 losses in their past 10 games). Downs was activated from the DL on Aug. 24th, and has since chucked 3.2 scoreless frames (3 K, 2 BB). Frasor, meanwhile, was pummeled by the Bronx Bombers yesterday, with A-Rod and Posada taking him deep.

Both undersized relievers have employed similar tactics to post career-low walk rates (2.91 BB/9 for Frasor, 2.77 for Downs). Neither is pounding the strike zone (49.9 Zone% for Frasor and just 43.3% for Downs; 49% MLB average). Rather, they’re both getting more outside swings than usual (Frasor’s league-average 25.1% mark is well above his 18.9% career average, and Downs’ 34.1% figure in ’09 is leaps and bounds ahead of his 22.6% career mark).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Fernando Rodney, $10 million per year reliever? It would be incredibly difficult to justify such a lavish payday for the 32 year-old. Rodney has posted 8.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 2009, with 0.9 Wins Above Replacement (and that’s his highest WAR total dating back to 2002). If 1 WAR is worth around $4.5 million on the free agent market, then a team properly evaluating Fernando shouldn’t be offering any more than half of that purported sum. His save total (31 and counting) is shiny, but it’s hard to label him as a top-tier reliever.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson got jacked up during his last appearance: a 3 hit, 5 run disaster vs. the Yankees on Sept. 2 (he didn’t retire a batter). There’s nothing really special about the 6-5 righty, who has whiffed 6.4 batters per nine frames while walking 2.97 and posting a 51.4% GB rate. His FIP is 4.26. He’s not a bad middle reliever, but he’s appearing in the ninth because, well, someone has to.

Other potential candidates for the role haven’t stepped forward, though I wouldn’t totally discount Chris Ray just yet. Sure, his ERA (6.75) is abominable. But the underlying number’s aren’t so bad: 8.15 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. The flyball-centric Ray does, however, have plenty of issues with the long ball (1.3 HR/9 career).

Watch Your Back

Kerry Wood, Indians

On the whole, Wood’s first season outside of the Friendly Confines has not gone especially well. The 32 year-old Texas has a 4.05 XFIP, with the opposition offering at just 19 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average; Wood’s O-Swing% in ’08 was 31.3).

Kerry is now dealing with a bout of shoulder soreness, and trade acquisition Chris Perez (a former Miami Hurricane righty who pumps mid 90’s gas with a sharp slider) is making a strong case for ninth-inning consideration in 2010. Perez (picked up from the Cardinals in the DeRosa deal) has always fooled plenty of hitters, but he has gone on an absolute tear with the Indians while displaying improved control. The 24 year-old owns a 23/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP with the Tribe.

Stock Up

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Ever hear the old adage that even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut? Well, McCutchen is the legume uncovered during the otherwise comedic/tragic tenure of former Pirates GM Dave Littlefield. The 11th overall selection in a stunningly deep 2005 draft class, McCutchen has hit the ground running in the majors. He’s batting .293/.362/.500 in 337 PA, showing power (.207 ISO, 10 HR) that belies his 5-11, 170 pound frame and well surpasses his minor league dossier.

The 22 year-old is working the count rather well (9.6 BB%, 18 K%), chasing 21.6% of pitches out of the strike zone (25.1% MLB avg). McCutchen has also been a smart, efficient base thief, with 15 swipes in 18 attempts (83.3% success rate). Couple the quality bat and high-percentage running with ample range in center field (+10.4 UZR/150), and you have a franchise pillar who has racked up 3.2 WAR since his early June call-up.

Ervin Santana, Angels

Is Santana turning his season around? There’s reason to believe so. Not that Ervin has been his dominant 2008 self this month, but he has allowed 12 runs in 33 August frames, holding opponents to a .250/.338/.408 line. Santana’s ’09 campaign has been plagued by injuries (a partially torn UCL and a forearm strain) and a consequent loss in velocity (after firing 94.4 MPH bullets and 84 MPH sliders in ’08, Santana’s overall fastball velocity sits at 91.8 MPH in ’09, with an 82 MPH slider).

However, his stuff does seem to be trending up as of late. His average fastball velocity is up to 92.3 MPH in August, and the pitch has been moderately effective after a disastrous showing earlier:

Santana’s Runs/100 pitches value with his fastball, by month:

May: -4.49
June: +1.12
July: -2.59
August: -0.13

(note: these linear run values are dependent on things like BABIP and HR/FB rate. In the case of a guy like Santana, his BABIP was in excess of .350 during the first three months, meaning those numbers shouldn’t like quite as bad as they do).

John Smoltz, Cardinals

Smoltz’s good processes and awful results with the Red Sox spurred countless discussions on just how we can more properly evaluate pitching performance.

The easy, lazy narrative on Smoltz following his run of drubbings with Boston was, “he’s old, injured and washed up.” But his underlying numbers suggested that he was still capable of performing at the highest level.

Latching on with St. Louis, Smoltz has made two excellent starts to begin his Red Bird career (a combined 11 IP, 15 K, 1 BB and 1 R vs. San Diego and Washington). While clearly promising, Smoltz’s two dominant outings don’t declare “he’s back” any more than his brutal Boston stint announced “he’s done.”

I’m obviously in the more optimistic camp when it comes to Smoltz’s future, but declaring “I told you so” after two starts would be even more foolish than coming to the conclusion that he was washed up following his Boston tenure. In other words, it’s just best to avoid knee-jerk reactions based on a small smattering of playing time.

Barry Zito, Giants

By this point, saying that the immense financial commitment that the Giants made to Barry Zito through at least 2013 was unwise is like beating a dead horse. Frankly, it’s more like beating glue. But, the calls for the club to outright release the left-hander are hyperbolic to the highest degree. That Reign of Terror-like bloodlust (“off with his head!”) might make for headline-generating copy, but it would also be a terrible financial decision.

Zito isn’t worth nearly $20M per season; we get it. But that doesn’t mean he’s worthless, either. In 2009, Barry has posted his lowest FIP (4.20) since 2003, with his highest K rate (6.93) since ’02 and his lowest walk rate (3.49) since ’04. His vaunted curveball (+2.49 runs/100 pitches thrown) is in the black run-wise for the first time since 2005, and Zito’s slider (+2.24 runs/100) is also getting the job done.

Overall, Zito has been worth 2.2 WAR, which equates to about $9.8M worth of value. Yes, that falls well short of how the Giants are compensating him. But severing ties for the mere sake of satiating the scribes would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Rajai Davis, Athletics

A 28 year-old speedster originally drafted by the Pirates, Davis has gone from DFA’d Giant during the spring to everyday center fielder for the A’s. A plus defender and an adept base stealer (29 for 37 in ’09), Rajai could be a viable starter if he can avoid stinking up the joint at the plate.

While Davis’ gifts afield and on the bases are apparent, we don’t exactly know what to expect from an offensive standpoint. He was relatively patient in a productive 2007 season (10 BB%, 19.4 O-Swing%), an unabashed hacker in a letdown 2008 campaign (3.6 BB%, 36.2 O-Swing%), and he has essentially split the difference in 2009 (7.8 BB%, 30.9 O-Swing%). If Davis can work the count and get on base at a reasonable clip, he’s a perfectly acceptable regular and a person of interest in fantasy circles. If he reverts to chasing off the plate and in the dirt, he’s Willy Taveras.

Stock Down

Johan Santana, Mets

At this pace, Mr. Met will be inserted into the New York lineup by mid-September. Santana is just the latest in a staggeringly long line of Mets casualties, as he’s done for the season following arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs from his left elbow.

Something was clearly amiss with the ace southpaw, as his K rate plummeted after a dominant April and May and his fastball velocity dipped into the 80’s (89.5 MPH in August). What’s Nelson Figueroa’s WAMM (Wins Above Mr. Met)?

Hank Blalock, Rangers

The 28 year-old Blalock once looked like a building-block player for the Rangers (he posted 5.3 WAR in 2003 and 4.4 WAR in 2004). Since then, not-so-hammerin’ Hank has compiled 2.5 WAR. Combined. Injuries have assuredly played a part, but Blalock’s plate patience has progressively eroded:

2007: 9.2 BB%
2008: 6.9 BB%
2009: 4.7 BB%

Hank’s wOBA has dipped from .383 in ’07 to .317 this year. And now, he’ll grab some pine as Chris Davis gets another chance to, well, stop hitting like Blalock.

Bobby Parnell, Mets

Forced into the depleted Queens rotation, Parnell has been hammered for 24 runs in 21 innings as a starter. The 6-4, 200 pound righty (a 9th-round selection out of Charleston Southern in 2005) boasts a low-to-mid-90’s heater with good movement out of the ‘pen, but middling control and questionable secondary offerings call into question his viability as a starter. There’s certainly no harm in trying to figure out if the soon-to-be 25 year-old can handle lineups multiple times (all but two of his appearances in the minors came as a starter), but he appears to be Mike Pelfrey, with worse control.

B.J. Upton, Rays

Let me preface this by saying that I remain a big believer in Upton. The 2nd overall pick in the ’02 draft just turned 25. And at one point or another, B.J. has shown every skill required of a superstar player. He has popped extra base hits (.209 ISO in ’07), has generally worked the count very well (11.7 BB% career), can swipe plenty of bags (he’s on pace for over 40 this year) and has acclimated himself to center field after his nomadic “shortstop, no second baseman, no third baseman” experience.

With strong D, Upton has still been a valuable contributor this season (2.1 WAR). But from a fantasy standpoint, he has been a disappointment. B.J.’s walk rate is down to 9.5% after a career-best 15.4% in ’08. Upton’s relative power outage in 2008 (.128 ISO) was largely attributed to a shoulder injury that required off-season surgery and sidelined him early in ’09, but his ISO this year (.129) hasn’t climbed. His first-pitch strike%, just 55.2% in 2008, is up to 62.1% in 2009 (58.2% MLB average).

The overall package of tools remains tantalizing, and Upton’s down 2009 could actually present an opportunity to buy low in 2010. But, owners who invested a high draft pick back in March are surely bummed out.

Aaron Harang, Reds

Harang’s 2009 season is over, following an emergency appendectomy. And with that, three-fifths of Cincy’s rotation (Cueto, Volquez and Harang) has hit the shelf during the summer.

The popular narrative for Harang cites the massive change in his won-loss record from 2007 (16-6) to 2009 (6-14). Oh, how the mighty have fallen. But how much has Harang really declined? Not that much, when viewed through the scope of Expected Fielding Independent ERA:

2006: 3.89 XFIP
2007: 3.81 XFIP
2008: 4.39 XFIP
2009: 4.00 XFIP

As a fly ball-centric pitcher in a ballpark that inflates home run production considerably, Harang and Great American Ballpark go together like peanut butter and tooth paste. But he’s still largely the same guy who performed so admirably from 2005-2007.

Quick: raise your hand if you thought that Kendry Morales would be outslugging the man he replaced, Mark Teixeira, as the 2009 season entered its final quarter. Unless your name is Mama Morales, you’re either psychic or a compulsive liar.

Sure, Teixeira has been the better player overall, as a large advantage in on base percentage (.381 for Tex, .354 for Kendry) gives him a .393 wOBA to Morales’ .387. But the gap has been astoundingly small, given what most preseason projections envisioned:

Morales’ pre-season wOBA’s, by projection system:

Bill James: .340
CHONE: .327
Oliver: .333
ZiPS: .325

The league average wOBA is around .335, and pretty much every projection pegged the switch-hitting Cuban import as straddling the line between average and below-average. No system forecasted him for an OBP higher than James’ .327, and the highest slugging percentage portended by the four was also James’, at .456 (anecdotally, the James projections always seem to be rather optimistic for hitters).

And keep in mind, we’re talking about a position in first base where offensive might is not just a nice extra: it’s a job requirement. In 2008, the average first baseman posted a .352 OBP, with a .463 slugging percentage. The average of those four projection systems gave Morales a .331 wOBA, while the league average first baseman posted roughly a .360 wOBA (using an estimate of 1.75 X OBP + slugging percentage, divided by three, to convert OBP and slugging to wOBA). Over the course of 600 plate appearances, Kendry was thought to be 15 runs below average compared to the average first baseman.

The 26 year-old entered the year with a spotty major league track record, including a .249/.302/.408 line in 407 plate appearances from 2006-2008. Morales’ minor league line (.332/.373/.528) looks more promising, but it did come with a few caveats. Salt Lake (the AAA affiliate of the Angels) is a favorable offensive environment, inflating runs by 6 percent and homers by 7 percent as compared to a neutral ballpark, and Morales walked in just 5.4 percent of his PA at the AAA level.

Courtesy of Minor League Splits, here are Morales’ Major League Equivalencies from his ’06 to ’08 Salt Lake slugging:

2006: .261/.289/.410
2007: .278/.318/.383
2008: .276/.303/.427

Suffice it to say, Morales has made a mockery of those numbers, authoring a robust .309/.354/.587 triple-slash in 494 PA. He certainly hasn’t been some model of patience at the plate, walking in 7.2% of his PA and swinging at 31.2% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25.1% MLB average). But, Kendry also hasn’t resembled some Francoeur-level hacker with an eyes-to-ankles strike zone, either. Morales is making a good deal of contact, with an 18.4 K% and an 89.1% contact rate on pitches within the zone (87.8% MLB average).

Has Morales been lucky on balls put in play? Not especially, according to Derek Carty’s simple expected batting average on balls in play calculator, which uses AB, HR, K’s, SB’s, grounders, fly balls and pop outs in addition to line drive percentage to spit out an XBABIP. Morales’ actual BABIP is .325, and his XBABIP is .317.

Kendry has cranked a homer on 17.8% of his fly balls hit, a rate which ranks in the top 25 among qualified hitters, and his .278 Isolated Power (slugging percentage minus batting average) places 9th amongst qualified batters. He’s handling fastballs (+0.87 runs per 100 pitches seen) and changeups (+1.67 runs/100) well, but throw him a yellow hammer at your own peril (+5.29 runs/100 against the curveball, tops in the majors).

Going forward, it would probably be wise to expect some degree of regression from Morales (ZiPS’ rest-of-season projections peg him to hit .296/.333/.510 the rest of the way). But, it’s rather difficult to poke any large holes in his 2009 campaign. He’s just beating the snot out of the baseball.

Morales is an example of why baseball is such an exciting (or, depending on your viewpoint, frustrating) sport. We had heaps of objective information that suggested he would be kind of a drag on L.A.’s playoffs hopes. Instead, he’s going 5-for-5 with a pair of dingers for a first-place club. Kendry might not be this good, but he putting to rest concerns that he wouldn’t meet the bar at baseball’s pre-eminent power position. Who knew?

Rocktober may well return in 2009. Following a dramatic 14-inning win over the San Francisco Giants last night, Colorado holds a four-game lead in the Wild card standings. That’s not insurmountable by any means, but Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds Report gives the club a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Once adjusting for the run-inflating nature of Coors, Colorado’s offense has been decidedly middle-of-the pack (they rank 7th in the NL in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, at a collective -7 compared to the league average). The team’s D hasn’t exactly been sterling, either, placing 28th in team UZR. Rather, it’s the pitching that’s keeping the Rockies in the running. Colorado’s starters have authored a 3.92 FIP, 5th in the N.L. Once again adjusting for the environment of their home ball park, Colorado ranks 1st in the NL in starting pitching runs above average, at +146.5.

The man leading the charge is 25 year-old Ubaldo Jimenez. In his first full year in the rotation in 2008, Jimenez showed a world of promise, though also a maddening tendency to lose the strike zone. The Dominican Republic native (signed back in 2001) punched out 7.79 batters per nine innings, while also causing the opposition to chop the ball into the dirt with great frequency (54.4 GB%). He did, however, issue 4.67 BB/9 in his 198.2 frames of work.

In 2009, Jimenez has taken his pitching to a different level. The punch outs (7.95 K/9) and grounders (52 GB%) remain, but his walk rate has been pared down to 3.41 per nine innings. That fact that Ubaldo has managed to increase his K rate while facing fewer hitters per inning (4.5 batters faced per inning in ’08, 4.18 in ’09) is very impressive. His percentage of PA ending in a strikeout has risen from 19.8 in 2008 to 21.1 this season.

Everything Ubaldo throws is working in ’09. Everyone knows about the 6-4 righty’s searing fastball velocity (his 96 MPH average is tops in the majors). However, he is far more than a one-trick pony. That fastball has been worth +0.66 runs above average per 100 tosses, but Jimenez’s wicked 86 MPH slider (+2.17 runs/100), 77 MPH curveball (+0.56) and hard 87 MPH changeup/splitter (+2.12) are causing plenty of hitters to return to the dugout, grumbling and wondering just how they’re supposed to hit this guy.

Jimenez doesn’t appear to receive a whole lot of love nationally (though outdueling Tim Lincecum on Sunday will surely help), but he is establishing himself as one of the premier starters in the National League.

Ubaldo can flummox batters with any of four above-average-to-plus pitches. He possesses strong groundball tendencies, which certainly can’t hurt in a hazardous pitching venue (grounders may yield a higher BABIP than flyballs, but those flyballs that aren’t caught are typically extra base hits and yield a far higher slugging percentage; that’s why all things being equal, groundball-centric pitchers are preferable). And now, his control appears to have taken a step forward.

Jimenez is an ace, and one can make a case that he’s the best starter in the pitching-rich NL West not named “Haren” or “Lincecum.”

Stock Up

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know, everyone reading this site is well aware of Mr. Mauer’s exploits this season. But as Dave Cameron recently noted, we’re entering historic territory here; Joe could be having the best offensive season of any backstop, ever.

The 26 year-old with the silky-smooth lefty swing has performed like a Ted Williams/Josh Gibson hybrid, batting an unfathomable .378/.449/.638, with a .457 wOBA. Despite not making his 2009 debut until May 1st, Mauer has accumulated 6.6 Wins Above Replacement. That leads all major league players. That’s like a sprinter giving his competition a head start, and then dusting them all anyway, running the last quarter of the race backwards for kicks.

I’m not going to delve too deeply into MVP voting philosophy here-the reason for an ostensibly individual award being tethered to team performance has always evaded me. Should we penalize Mauer for not being able to put Delmon Young on base via telekinesis? But, here’s a quick Mauer/Teixeira comparison, with their respective ranks in WAR among hitters:

Mauer: 6.6 WAR, 1st
Teixeira: 4.1 WAR, 24th

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carp essentially didn’t pitch the past two seasons, yet he has returned with a vengeance in 2009. He has been fortunate with a .268 BABIP and a 5.8 HR/FB%, but even when one corrects for those numbers, the 34 year-old is among the very best in the game. In 145.2 IP, Carpenter owns a 3.38 XFIP (based on a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts and a normalized HR/FB rate). Only Lincecum, Vazquez and Haren can top that mark in the NL.

Carpenter does everything that one desires from a starter: he misses a decent amount of bats (6.86 K/9), is extremely stingy with the walks (1.42 BB/9) and wages a ground-based assault on opposing batters (54.7 GB%). Everything in Carp’s bag of tricks is working: his 93 MPH fastball (+2.13 runs/100 pitches), 87 MPH slider/cutter (+1.89 runs/100) and 75 MPH curve (+1.82) give hitters fits.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

What’s a guy got to do to get a promotion around here? LaPorta (the centerpiece of last summer’s Sabathia blockbuster with Milwaukee) posted a robust .299/.380/.530 at AAA Columbus. The 6-2 right-handed batter worked the count well (11.1 BB%), lowered his whiff rate (16.6%) and also posted a .231 ISO. Yet, LaPorta received only a small cameo with the big club earlier in the year. Manager Eric Wedge also made some mildly alarming comments about the slugger back in April:

“LaPorta is so young, just out of college. He’s off to a good start, and his day will come.” (Ohio.com)

Why is that alarming? Well, 1). LaPorta is 24 years old, 2). he’s a polished hitter out of the University of Florida, and 3). he was a senior sign, as an injury during his junior season caused him to slip in the draft, and 4). LaPorta has a career .291/.384/.557 line in the minors. That profile looks about as major league-ready as possible.

LaPorta’s ultimate position has yet to be determined, but he should provide plenty in the secondary skills department (walks and power) for Cleveland and fantasy owners alike.

Charlie Haeger, Dodgers

Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball features an eclectic mix of human beings. Within the confines of one clubhouse, you may well find a guy tall enough to play power forward in the NBA, and another who couldn’t scrape the “You Must Be This Tall To Ride” sign at an amusement park. There are ivy-league educated players, guys signed out of Latin America at age 16 and Far East Imports. That clubhouse likely has a bonus baby with a seven-figure bank account, and a minor league journeyman used to crashing at Motel 8’s and chowing down on peanut butter sandwiches.

In short, baseball is a sport full of atypical people. And flutterball specialists have a special place in the hears of most fans. Haeger, a former White Sox prospect who also briefly appeared with the Padres, has made two pretty successful starts for the Dodgers. The soon-to-be 26 year-old did posted a 4.67 FIP at AAA Albuquerque, and has allowed 3 runs with a 9/4 K/BB with the Dodgers in 14 frames. For more on Haeger, check out Erik Manning’s post here.

Matt Holliday, Cardinals

So much for the whole..”can’t hit outside of Coors” thing. Holliday has long been a quality hitter, cozy home ballpark or no. He posted an average of +41.8 Batting Runs per season from 2006-2008 (that’s park-adjusted), and his obscene hitting with the Cardinals has boosted his 2009 Batting Runs total to 28.6. He’ll likely finish the season somewhere around +35 to +37 Batting Runs, pretty close to his production in the sudsy wonderland of the Rockies. The pending free agent is a superstar, no matter where he plays his ball games.

Stock Down

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals

Lohse did not appear fully healthy upon returning from a forearm strain. He was blasted for.320/.353/.547 opponent line in August, and now heads back to the DL with a groin strain. In the first year of a 4-year, $41 M deal, Lohse has provided 0.8 WAR ($3.7 M worth of value). The Cardinals have to hope he’ll bounce back, as Kyle is owed about $8.9M in 2010 and roughly $11.9M in both 2011 and 2012.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

There’s a laundry list of reasons as to why the Cubs currently have less than a 1-in-17 chance of making the playoffs. Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto suffered injuries. Milton Bradley’s power was abducted by aliens on the way to Wrigley. The mileage on Big Z’s arm at a young age appears to be making him increasingly fragile.

Soriano’s sordid 2009 season has contributed to the mess as well. After posting wOBA’s of .380 and .374 during his first two seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has fallen off a cliff to .313 this year. Some of that dip might be poor luck on balls put in play- Soriano’s BABIP is .278, and according to this expected BABIP calculator, Alfonso’s BABIP “should” be around .305.

That still doesn’t fully explain Soriano’s season, though. His HR/FB% has fallen from 17.1% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2009. He’s still hitting fastballs well (+0.67 runs/100 pitches), though not at his usual prolific level (+1.93 career). However, Soriano has posted negative run values (curves and changeups have been particularly poisonous) against every other pitch except for cutters.

Soriano will make $18 million annually from 2010-2014, his age 34-38 seasons. If a win above replacement is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then Alfonso must produce a full 4 WAR per season for the Cubs to break even on the exchange. Color me skeptical that he’ll come anywhere near that level.

Michael Bowden, Red Sox

Bowden’s placement here isn’t really about his debacle of a relief appearance against the Yankees on August 21st (though I’m sure he would like to erase the 2-inning, 7 R disaster from his memory bank, Men In Black-style). Rather, it’s about his larger body of work in the minors this season.

The 2005 supplemental first-rounder wreaked havoc on batters in a 2008 season split between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket (144.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9), but 2009 has been more of a shrug-inducing effort. That’s not to say that Bowden has been bad, but his numbers with the Paw Sox (115.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) are a little underwhelming.

The 6-3, 215 pound righty has a quality curve and changeup, but he tends to use a fastball of modest velocity and movement up in the zone. That leads to boat loads of flyballs- Bowden’s GB% in AAA was just 31 percent. An extreme flyball pitcher, in the AL, is going to need more than average control to perform well (Bowden’s Major League Equivalent FIP in his time with Pawtucket was 5.13).

John Lannan, Nationals

Lannan’s ERA in 2008 (3.91) was considerably lower than his XFIP (4.47), and he has outdone his XFIP again this season (4.03 ERA, 4.74 XFIP). However, the gap is closing, with the lefty getting drubbed for 19 runs in 18 August frames. He has issued 11 walks, while punching out nine batters.

The 24 year-old boasts above-average control (2.97 BB/9 in 2009) and groundball tendencies (51.3 GB%). However, his strikeout rate has dipped from slightly below average in 2008 (5.79 K/9) to an untenable 3.75 per nine frames. Compared to last season, hitters are chasing fewer of his pitches (26.1% in ’08, 21.3% in ’09; 25% MLB avg.) and are making more contact (83.1 contact% in ’08, 89% in ’09; 80.6% MLB avg). He’s certainly a serviceable back-rotation hurler, but Lannan is more of a 4.50 ERA+ guy than the high-3, low 4 ERA pitcher that we have seen so far.

Alex Gordon, Royals

The ethics of service time manipulation has become a hot topic of late. We have seen potential “Super Two” players down the road (guys with more than two but less than three years of service time, in the top 17% of service time among players in the class) being kept down until the financial coast is clear (think Travis Snider) and other established young vets like J.J. Hardy being farmed out in order to push back free agency by a year.

Gordon falls into the discussion now. By sending the former Nebraska star back to AAA, the Royals delay Gordon’s free agency by a season. While the timing is awfully convenient, the 25 year-old has endured a nightmarish season. He missed a considerable chunk of the year following hip surgery, and has posted a paltry .290 wOBA in 110 PA. He often rolled over on the ball, hitting grounders at a 51.5% clip. Gordon was supposed to be a star by now, and he appeared to make progress in 2008 by upping his walk rate considerably. He’s no sure-fire stud anymore, but I don’t think it’s time to write him off, either.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera just keeps rolling along, with 7 saves and 1 run allowed in 8.2 August frames. Mo slammed the door on the Mariners on August 15th and the A’s on the 19th. Mo’s 3.20 Win Probability Added places second among all relievers, and he boasts a 57/8 K/BB ratio in 52 innings pitched.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Mr. Nathan was hit with a comebacker this past week, but he says that he’s just fine. He chucked three innings without surrendering a run, racking up saves on the 18th and the 19th vs. the Rangers. The 34 year-old has turned in a remarkable season, with 11.76 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Nathan’s 32.4 O-Swing% is well above the 25% MLB average, with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.35 runs/100 pitches thrown), 88 MPH slider (+2.71) and 82 MPH curve (+3.38) causing all sorts of issues for hitters.

Joakim Soria, Royals

With Soria’s shoulder woes apparently in the past, the Royals have taken to using their closer for six-out saves (3 of Joakim’s last 6 saves ops have been of the two-inning variety). The Rule V gem worked another six-out stint vs. Detroit in a non-save situation on the 16th, then locked down his 20th save of the season against the White Sox on the 18th. The former starter has gradually mixed in his strong secondary offerings more often: his percentage of fastballs thrown has gone from 77.2% in 2007 to 66.6% in 2009.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is having an awfully strange season. On the one hand, he leads all relievers in Win Probability Added (+3.70), as he has often escaped jams in high-leverage situations. On the other, he’s walking nearly 4 batters per nine innings (3.98 BB/9), compared to a career rate of 2.43 walks per nine frames. Jonathan got a save against Toronto on August 18th, but not before issuing three walks and allowing 2 hits in 1.1 IP. With fewer pitches hitting the mark, opponents have cut their percentage of pitches swung at from 55.6% in 2008 to 48.6% in 2009 (45.1% MLB average).

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has served up three dingers this month, with 5 walks, 6 H and 4 R in 8 innings pitched. He did manage two saves this week (his 13th and 14th), and J.P.’s 69/22 K/BB for the year remains stellar. How is Howell so tough to hit? Well, he’s certainly not giving anything away with his release point. Check out his release chart from an August 16th appearance against the Blue Jays:

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks served up another jimmy jack this week, getting taken deep by Oakland’s Mark Ellis in a loss on August 16th. He did collect two saves, closing out games against the Royals on the 17th and the 19th. Bobby’s peripherals are actually much stronger this year than in 2008: his K rate has jumped from 5.55 to 8.52 per nine innings, while lowering his walk rate from 2.48 to 2.28. However, a .307 BABIP and a big ol’ 15.8 HR/FB% have made his 2009 ERA (3.74) appear far worse than 2008’s mark (2.63). Keep that in mind for next year’s draft, as Jenks hasn’t really declined and could be had at a bargain price.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey pitched three times this week, with a scoreless inning against the White Sox on August 14th and the 16th (neither was a save op, though he picked up a W on the 16th), then notching a save against the Yankees on the 18th. The 25 year-old rookie has been very sharp this month, with 5 K’s, zero walks, 0 runs and 1 hit allowed in 6 IP. Bailey is approaching the 2.0 Wins Above Replacement mark, currently sitting at 1.9 WAR.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma’s August has conjured up some memories of the explosive work that caused him to bounce from San Francisco, to both sides of Chicago, to Boston and finally to Seattle. He has coughed up 6 runs in 6.1 IP, with 5 walks and 2 HR allowed. The extreme fly ball pitcher (his 56 FB% is the 3rd-highest among relievers) was bound to surrender a few big flies eventually (his HR/FB% remains at a teensy 4.0). The former first-rounder out of Rice has surely been a nice pickup for the M’s, but his XFIP (4.42) is considerably higher than his 2.43 ERA.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was awfully busy this week, appearing four times. He got three saves (two vs. Baltimore, one vs. Cleveland), but he did blow a chance against the O’s as well. His 2009 strikeout rate (8.42 batters per nine innings) is well below his career mark of 10.07 K/9. The culprit would appear to be a less effective breaking ball. Fuentes’ slider was worth +2.06 runs/100 pitches in 2008, but a paltry -0.66 runs/100 in his first year with the Angels.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

On August 14th, Francisco endured the sort of apocalyptic appearance that can torch a reliever’s entire season line. Frank was fried for 7 hits, 6 runs and a homer in just 0.2 IP, jet-propelling his ERA from 2.01 to 3.66. He did settle down in subsequent outings, with two scoreless save ops (Boston on the 16th, Minnesota on the 17th). Francisco has a strong 40/8 K/BB in 34 IP.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry tossed two innings this past week, whiffing four, walking two and allowing a run. Wood’s 4.13 XFIP isn’t as ugly as his 4.71 ERA, as a big uptick in his HR/FB rate has harmed the Texan (15.6% in 2009). Still, Wood’s WPA remains in negative territory (-0.34), and batters just plain aren’t chasing his stuff. The former Cub garnered outside swings 31.3% of the time in ’08, but just 19.3% in ’09.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Frasor notched a save against the Rays on August 14th, then pitched another scoreless frame vs. Boston on the 18th (he did walk 2 in the non-save op, though). The diminutive right-hander has certainly had plenty of bounces go his way this year, with a .256 BABIP and a 1.9 HR/FB%. Frasor’s 4.02 XFIP more than doubles his 1.87 ERA.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Fernando took a loss against the Royals on August 16th, then picked up a save against the Mariners on the 18th. He has induced plenty of groundballs this season (56.6 GB%, 10 percentage points above his career average), though control often remains elusive (4.25 BB/9). Somehow, opposing batters have a 9 percent line drive rate against Rodney. That’s the lowest rate among all relievers.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Baltimore’s new stopper tossed three scoreless innings in two appearances this week, though neither was a save opportunity. There’s nothing in particular that wows you about the 26 year-old right-hander, but he has increased his Outside-Swing% from 23.3% in 2008 to 26.1% in 2009, while lowering his contact rate from 86.7% to 80.2%. He’s keeping his infielders busy (52.1 GB%), and has a 2.17 K/BB ratio. Not great, but he’ll manage to get three outs before the opposition scores 1-3 runs most of the time (as would many other relievers).

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon is still pumping gas this month, as evidenced by his 97.6 MPH velocity and 9 K’s in 8.1 IP. However, whether the cause be fatigue or a lingering big toe injury, Broxton hasn’t been the same dominant force that scorched lineups in the 9th during the first half of the season. He blew a save vs. the Diamondbacks on the 15th, getting whipped for 2 home runs (Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds) in a blown save. Broxton worked scoreless innings against St. Louis on the 17th and the 18th (which was a save op), but then gave up a run vs. the Red Birds yesterday in a loss.

While it could just be the product of an extremely small sample (a reliever’s seasonal line can be skewed from a bad appearance or two, much less numbers from one month), opponents have made contact with 92.7% of Broxton’s pitches thrown within the strike zone in August. That’s a marked jump from his 81.5% mark for the season.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was manhandled against the Cardinals on August 16th, coughing up 3 runs in 0.1 frames (Colby Rasmus’ 12th-inning bomb sealed the deal for St. Louis). Bell then picked up a W vs. the Cubs on the 17th, and racked up save number 30 against Chicago on the 18th. The former Mets castoff is doing everything that one could ask from a reliever: he’s fooling plenty of batters (9.99 K/9, a career-high rate), limiting the walks well enough (2.96 BB/9) and inducing worm-burners (51.7 GB%).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street destroyed hitters in July (10.1 IP, 12/0 K/BB, 1 R), but August has not been nearly as kind (5.2 IP, 5/1 K/BB, 6 R). Huston did collect 3 saves this week, though they likely gave Rockies fans indigestion (a combined 4 H, 2 R and a HR in 3 IP). Still, Street owns an outstanding 56/11 K/BB ratio in 50 IP this year, with a 2.52 Win Probability Added that ranks 8th among relievers.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls picked up a save against the Dodgers on August 14th, then picked up a win in an extra-inning affair the next night. He did walk a batter in each appearance, a rarity for a guy who has dished out all of 7 unintentional walks in 48.2 frames this season. Qualls boasts a 6.0 K/BB ratio in 2009, a mark that trails only some guy named Rivera in the Bronx. Opponents are making more contact these days (his overall contact% has increased from 70.7 in 2007 to 79.6% in 2009), but it’s not like they’re doing much when the bat is put on the ball. Chad still gets groundballs by the bucketful (57.3 GB%).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

You and I pitched as often as Mr. Hoffman this week (that is to say, not at all). The Brewers have lost four straight, putting the club’s playoff hopes at a paltry 0.5 percent. An extreme fly ball pitcher in the past, Trevor has actually posted a 45.3% groundball rate in 2009. That has certainly helped his transition from the pitching mecca that is Petco Park, but still doesn’t explain how he has managed to toss 35 innings without a single long ball surrendered.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has endured a trying month, getting touched up for 9 runs, 4 walks and 2 dingers in 7.1 IP. In the first year of a 3-year, $37.5M contract, Rodriguez has provided 0.3 Wins Above Replacement (generating $1.3M worth of value for the Mets thus far). His 85 MPH changeup still retains its bite (+4.19 runs/100 pitches thrown), but his 80 MPH curveball (-0.02 runs/100) and 93 MPH heater (-0.05 runs/100) have been decidedly average (and keep in mind, those numbers are subject to fluctuations in things like BABIP and HR/FB rate; those runs/100 figures would be even worse if K-Rod weren’t benefitting from a .255 BABIP).

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Is Soriano hurt, or is he just going through one of those rough patches that hits nearly every reliever during the course of a season? Mark Bowman of MLB.com recently reported that Rafael is suffering from “muscle discomfort behind his right shoulder“, which sends off bells and whistles for a guy with a DL history resembling a Harry Potter novel in length. August has not been kind to the pending free agent, as Soriano has served up 5 runs, 3 walks and two round-trippers in 6 IP.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson twirled 2.2 innings in an eventual 5-4 victory over the Mets on August 15th, got a 2 strikeout save against the Reds on the 18th and then notched his 30th save of the year vs. Cincy yesterday (2 K’s again). A 4.0 HR/FB% has certainly aided the flame-thrower this season, but he has made some progress in limiting the free passes (4.04 BB/9 in 2008, 3.4 BB/9 in ’09). That might lead one to believe that Wilson is pounding the zone more often, but that’s not the case. His percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has actually dipped from 54.3% in ’08 to 49.7% this season (49.3% MLB average). His Outside-Swing% has increased somewhat, from 17.1% to 19.6% (that’s still well below the 25% MLB average, though).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde collected two saves this week, closing the door on the Brewers August 16th and the Marlins last night (he did make things a little too interesting, however, by allowing two hits versus Milwaukee and 2 walks against the Fish). Is the free-agent-to-be becoming more hittable? His strikeout rate (9.73) has hardly plummeted, but it is down for a fourth consecutive year. Valverde’s percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.9%), while still well below the 87.9% MLB average, is his highest mark since 2002. Papa Grande’s XFIP of 3.99 is his highest figure since 2004.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin has notched 7 saves this month for the surging Cardinals, who now have a death grip on the NL Central race (Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds have the Cards with a near-90% chance of taking home the division title). The four-pitch reliever racked up three saves this past week, with 2.2 spotless innings. To his credit, Franklin is garnering swings off the plate (29.3 Outside-Swing%) and he’s getting ahead of hitters (68.3 First-Pitch Strike%). Still, a microscopic .219 BABIP, a 3.9 HR/FB% and a near-92% rate of stranding base runners suggest he has also been exceedingly fortunate.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

The 34 year-old righty tossed a scoreless inning vs. Washington on August 14th, but Cordero’s next appearance was a 3-hit, 3-run train wreck against the Giants on the 18th. The nasty outing bumped Cordero’s ERA up to 2.30, but that’s still well ahead of his middling 4.15 XFIP. His XFIP was in excess of four in 2008, as well (4.08). His K rate (7.28 per nine) is about two ticks below his career mark (9.3 K/9).

Cordero is under contact for 2010 and 2011 at $12 million a season (there’s a 2012 option for the same amount, or a $1M buyout). If a win above replacement level is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then that contract values Co-Co as a 2.6+ WAR reliever. Cordero was worth 0.8 WAR last year, and is at 0.9 this season. That’s an awful lot of money invested in a good, but hardly great reliever.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps was lashed for 5 runs in 0.2 IP between August 9th and the 13th, but he did turn in two quiet innings against Milwaukee as the Pirates swept the Brew Crew in a three-game set (he picked up a save last evening). The soon-to-be 26 year-old hasn’t been the unmitigated disaster that his ERA (6.25) would indicate, as a .377 BABIP and a home run/ fly ball rate of 13.6 have put a big dent in his stats. Still, his 4.66 XFIP isn’t all that praise-worthy. Capps’ XFIP has risen three straight seasons.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

“Lights Out” picked up a save against Atlanta on August 14th (giving up a hit and a walk), then got his lights knocked out the next day vs. the Braves (2 H, 2 BB in a blown save). He then collected a gimme 0.1 IP save to finish the series with the club’s division rival. A balky knee has contributed to his 2009 woes and an unsustainably low home run/ fly ball rate last season portended to some regression this year, but it was difficult to see this coming. Despite all the variance in his ERA over the years (ebbing and flowing from 5.28 in ’06, 3.36 in ’07 and 1.95 in ’08), Lidge’s XFIP was actually fairly stable. This year, however, his XFIP sits at a lousy 4.91.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, John Grabow

With Gregg pouring ample amounts of gas on Chicago’s playoff chances this month (8 IP, 10 R and a stunning 5 HR allowed), the Cubs have apparently decided to give Marmol a shot at ninth-inning duties. Mr. Marmol possesses perhaps the nastiest slider in the game, a wicked 83 MPH breaker that has been worth +2.13 runs/100 pitches during the course of his major league career.

Sadly, Marmol also has about as much control as Sweet Lou during an umpiring tirade. The Dominican Republic native has never boasted great ability to paint the corners, but he has lost all semblance of the zone with 8.31 BB/9 during the 2009 season. Opposing batters have prudently swung at fewer of Marmol’s offerings: his O-Swing% has dipped from 30.1% in 2007 to 20.3% in ’09, with an overall swing% decline from 42.5% in ’07 to 37.4% this year. A .246 BABIP and absurdly low 1.8 HR/FB% have allowed him to escape many jams, but his XFIP is 5.42. He’s surely capable of much better, but it’s hard to be truly optimistic when a guy is walking nearly a batter per inning.

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins had only one save opportunity this week, which went to Nunez. Nunez, formerly of the Pirates and Royals organizations, has a 48/20 K/BB in 52.1 IP this season. With a 56.7 First-Pitch strike%, Leo hasn’t exactly gotten on top of hitters regularly (59% MLB avg). Still, Nunez has been a veritable control artist compared to Lindstrom, who has issued 5.35 BB/9 during an injury-marred 2009 season.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

On the whole, MacDougal has not pitched well at all this season (37 IP, 18/26 K/BB). At least he has avoided walking anyone over his last four appearances, a 4.1-inning stretch in which he collected two saves (vs. Cincinnati on the 14th and the 16th). The 32 year-old journeyman is getting grounders (59.8 GB%), but he’s going to have to do a far better job of getting ahead in the count if he hopes to have any kind of sustained success.

Check back Friday for the A.L. Closer Report.

Stock Up

Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

Stock Down

David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo racked up two saves in three appearances this week, though he did give up a run against the Blue Jays on August 11th (Edwin Encarnacion hit a homer). The former Red’s round-tripper marked the first time that the opposition crossed home plate against Rivera since June 12th. He’s punching out 10.1 batters per nine innings, with 1.29 BB/9. Rivera’s 2.89 WPA is the 4th-best mark in the majors.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe gave up a run vs. Detroit on the 7th, but he bounced back to strike out the side against the Royals on the 12th (neither game was a save opportunity). Nathan’s K rate (11.75) is nearly two whiffs per nine higher than 2008’s mark (9.84), and he has lowered his walk rate to boot (2.39 BB/9 to 2.06 BB/9). His first-pitch strike percentage is 67.9, scores ahead of the 58.2% MLB average.

Joakim Soria, Royals

After seemingly forgetting that Soria was in the bullpen in early July, manager Trey Hillman has started to use the Mexicutioner (a former starter with a deep repertoire) to get six-out saves. Three of Soria’s last 5 save ops have been of the six-out variety, a refreshing change (in Hillman’s defense, Soria’s shoulder woes earlier in the season could have contributed to his usage). Joakim didn’t have a banner week, however. He was lit up on the 8th vs. the A’s, giving up dingers to Tommy Everidge and Mark Ellis. Soria did rebound against Minnesota yesterday, firing two scoreless innings.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched 2.2 scoreless innings between two appearances on the 7th (Yankees) and the 10th (Detroit), but he gave up 2 runs against the Tigers on the 11th (including a HR to Curtis Granderson). Papelbon’s FIP (3.55) is well north of his 2.69 career average, as 50.8% of his pitches are crossing home plate (that’s down from 54.5% in ’08; Jon’s Zone% has dipped each season since 2006).

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. twiddled his thumbs this week: he hasn’t made an appearance since our last Closer Report. The former Royal (pilfered from K.C. in June of 2006 for excellent-car-jumper-but-bad-ball player Joey Gathright) has punched out 10.54 hitters per nine innings, with excellent secondary offerings (+1.72 runs/100 pitches for the curve, +5.08 runs/100 for the change) and a sneaky mid-80’s fastball (+0.96).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

With his kidney stones issue mercifully behind him, Jenks pitched 3.2 scoreless frames this past week (one save vs. Seattle on the 11th). Bobby hasn’t allowed a run in August, a welcome change after a July that saw far too many fireworks for the opposition (8 runs in 7.1 IP). Jenks has rates of 8.55 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9, giving him a 3.55 XFIP. That’s lower than 2008’s 3.86 figure, despite Bobby’s 2009 ERA (3.83) being 1.2 runs higher than his 2008 mark (2.63).

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey was touched up in the second half of July, but has begun August well. Bailey notched two saves this week, with clean innings against the Royals on the 9th and the Orioles on the 12th. He hasn’t walked a batter over his past six innings, and has rates of 10.13 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 for the season. Bailey throws plenty hard (94 MPH with his fastball), but he doesn’t fit the archetypal power reliever mold. The former starter uses his heater around 56% of the time, mixing in cutters over a quarter of the time and curveballs about 15 percent.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma collected a save against one of his former teams (the White Sox) on August 10th, but the Pale Hose pummeled him for 3 hits and 3 runs (including a HR to Alexei Ramirez) in a blown save op on the 11th. The 27 year-old right-hander continues to rack up K’s (10.53 K/9) and walks (5.09) by the bucketful. Safeco suppresses homer production, but Aardsma has been lucky to surrender a 2.9 HR/FB% this season.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got 2 saves this week, closing the door vs. Texas on August 8th and the Rays on the 10th. The lefty hasn’t had much success with his slider this season (-0.26 runs/100 pitches), which helps to explain a lower outside-swing% (23.5, 29.4% in 2008) and a higher rate of contact (79.7%, up from 73.4% in ’08).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Francisco appeared just once this week, picking up a save vs. the Indians yesterday (his 16th of the season). Frank’s frequent absences (he’s been on the DL three times in 2009) might have obscured the type of season that he’s having. The 6-3, 230 pound righty has whiffed 10.05 per nine innings, with 2.3 BB/9. The key has been a filthy 86 MPH splitter. The pitch was rarely successful in the past (-0.47 runs/100 value since 2002), but the splitter has a +4.65 figure in 2009. Francisco has increased his usage of the pitch, tossing it 19.1% of the time after throwing the split closer to 10% in past seasons.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry has actually resembled the closer in the free agent catalogue this month. In 4 August frames, Wood has whiffed 4, while walking none and surrendering no runs. As Pitch F/X whiz Harry Pavlidis noted on The Hardball Times, the Texan has scrapped his slider in favor of a cutter in 2009. There hasn’t been anything wrong with his new toy (+0.48 runs/100 pitches with the cutter) or his 80 MPH curve. Wood’s 96 MPH fastball, however, is another story (-1.15 runs/100 pitches).

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Returned to the closer’s role with Scott Downs nursing a toe injury, Frasor frazzled hitters with 2.2 innings of spotless pitching this week (including a save vs. the Yankees on August 10th). Frasor’s 3.36 K/BB ratio is the best of his career, an uptick keyed by a climb in outside-swing percentage (24.7% in ’09, 18.8% career average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney got rocked August 7th vs. the Twins (3 H, 2 R), and got taken deep by Michael Cuddyer on the 9th while collecting a save. Fernando picked up another save yesterday afternoon vs. Boston as well. Rodney’s ERA (3.78) is well below 2008’s mark (4.91), though he’s not really pitching all that differently. His XFIP is 4.19 in ’09, which is actually higher than 2008’s 4.06.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson got two saves this week (one against Toronto on the 7th and another vs. Oakland on the 11th), tossing three innings of scoreless relief overall. He throws awfully hard (94.4 MPH), but that doesn’t necessarily translate to a ton of missed bats. Johnson’s whiffing 6.36 hitters per nine innings, with a 4.19 FIP. He won’t be a liability in the role (Johnson does a decent job of limiting the free passes and getting grounders). But, it’s also hard to call Johnson a big asset, as a middle reliever cast into a late-inning role in a cut-throat division.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.