For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

The Panamanian with the deadly cutter will be 40 this November, yet it’s actually shocking any time that Rivera allows a run. He gave up two in a blown save vs. Seattle on the 18th. Those are the only tallies against Mo since August 11th. Rivera has 9.96 K/9, with 1.73 BB/9 and a 2.54 XFIP. His percentage of contact within the zone is higher than usual (89.8% in ’09, 85.9% career), but Mo remains as effective as ever.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria has worked four times since the last Closer Report, collecting three saves and striking out five in four scoreless innings. Joakim has yet to allow a run this September, while racking up an insane 19 K’s in 10.2 IP. The Mexicutioner has 12.06 K/9 in 2009, with a 31.1 O-Swing% (25% MLB avg). It’s no wonder why the 25 year-old is so difficult to touch up: he can unleash a 92 MPH heater (+0.61 runs/100), 80 MPH slider (+0.62), 70 MPH curveball (+4.95) or an 85 MPH changeup (+0.42). How many relievers have four plus pitches?

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

The major league leader in Win Probability Added (+4.79), Papelbon has punched out 11, issued two walks and surrendered 2 runs in 9.1 September innings. Boston’s 4th-round pick in the 2003 draft has been much sharper in the second half of the season, with a 5.5 K/BB ratio since the All-Star break (2.28 K/BB prior).

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has seen extensive action as the Twins attempt to catch the Tigers in the A.L. Central standings. Joe has pitched 7 times over the past 10 days, collecting six saves. He has whiffed 8 in 6.2 frames, but has also issued 4 free passes. Nathan struck out 9.67 hitters per nine innings in 2007 and 9.84 in 2008, but his K rate has climbed back up to 11.86 this year. His contact rate (68.2%) is his lowest since 2005.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has pitched 79.1 innings in relief this season, the most by any closer in the majors. But if the 25 year-old with the nasty fastball, cutter and curve is tired, he sure isn’t showing it. Bailey chucked four scoreless innings since our last Closer Report, with 6 K’s, zero walks and one hit. With 9.87 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, the 6-3 righty has a 3.37 XFIP. Opposing batters have made contact with 75.6% of Bailey’s pitches within the strike zone, the lowest rate among all relievers.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Can you believe that Aardsma hasn’t walked anyone in over a month? A highly-touted prospect taken 22nd overall by the Giants in 2003, Aardsma drifted through many organizations (San Fran, both sides of Chicago, Boston) before breaking out in Seattle. Control problems plagued him throughout. Yet, the 27 year-old has now gone 11 consecutive frames without allowing a free pass. His walk rate is down to 4.32 for the season. Punching out 10.26 batters per nine innings and showing adequate control, Aardsma has a 4.16 XFIP in 2009.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has collected just one save this September, with the Rays fading down the stretch. His control has been MIA, with seven walks in five IP (this after 9 BB in 12 August frames). J.P. hasn’t been easy to hit (10.67 K/9, and a 68.1% contact rate well below the 81% MLB avg). But he’s struggling to locate, with a 45.8 Zone% (49% MLB avg, 50.1% Zone% for Howell in 2008).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Putting the finishing touches on a fine (if injury-riddled) 2009 season, Francisco has picked up two saves in five scoreless frames since the last Closer Report (6 K, 2 BB). In 46.2 IP, Frank has a 4.0 K/BB ratio, with a 3.78 XFIP. He’s pounding the zone (55 Zone%, 49% MLB avg). But when he does bury a pitch in the dirt, hitters are chasing more often (27.1 O-Swing%, 22.8% career avg).

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel, White Sox (Bobby Jenks out for the season with a strained calf muscle)

A calf injury closes the book on Jenks’ 2009 season. Bobby’s ERA soared from 2.63 in 2008 to 3.71 in 2009, but it’s questionable how much he actually declined. The 28 year-old’s XFIP was 3.86 in ’08, and a slightly-lower 3.77 in 2009. Jenks’ K rate bounced back this year (5.55 K/9 in ’08, 8.27 K/9 in ’09), but a huge 17% home run/fly ball rate put a big dent in his season. He’s basically the same guy: a good late-inning arm, if not an elite one.

With Bobby out of commission, Thornton and Dotel figure to get dibs on any save ops for the Pale Hose. Per Win Probability Added, Thornton (+2.87) has Dotel (+0.74) beat by a healthy margin. Same goes for XFIP (2.92 for Matt, 4.33 for Octavio). Thornton has whiffed 10.72 hitters per nine frames this year, firing a blistering 96 MPH fastball nearly 90 percent of the time.

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

The Jays haven’t had a save converted since Sept. 12th, when Frasor took down the Tigers. Frasor (a former Detroit prospect himself) blew a save op against the Tigers on the 14th (3 runs allowed, including a homer), then took a loss against the Yankees on the 16th (2 hits and a run). He allowed another run in an appearance vs. Baltimore on the 21st, then finally tossed a clean inning yesterday against the O’s.

Downs, meanwhile, has had some trouble of his own. He blew a save op vs. the Bronx Bombers Sept. 16th, giving up 3 hits two runs and a homer. He hasn’t appeared in a game since.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Watch Your Back: Kevin Jepsen

Are the buzzards circling Fuentes? Shiny save total aside, the former Rockie hasn’t enjoyed a stellar first year with the Halos. His XFIP, 3.25 in 2008, has soared to 5.09 this year. Fuentes’ K rate (7.71 per nine) has dipped considerably, and is the worst mark of his big league career. The lefty’s fastball has still been effective (+0.66 runs/100), but he’s lost control of his mid-70’s slider (-0.82 runs/100). That has led to more contact (79.5 contact%, 73.4% career) and plenty of hitter’s counts (52.2 first-pitch strike%, 58% MLB avg).

As Eno Sarris noted, Fuentes’ hiccups could open the door for Jepsen. A 25 year-old right-hander toting upper-90’s gas (96.2 MPH), Jepsen missed many bats in the minors (8.4 K/9) while generally having no idea where the ball was going (5.4 BB/9).

Jepsen appears to have made some progress on that front. In 50.2 IP this year, the 6-3, 215 pounder has whiffed 7.46 per nine innings, with 2.84 BB/9. Using that zipping fastball (+1.56 runs/100) and a hard 90 MPH cutter (+1.61), Jepsen has generated grounders at a 57.1% clip. If Jepsen can keep the walks in check, Fuentes’ hold on the closer job could become tenuous.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Watch Out For: Chris Perez

Hardly all that the Indians had hoped for this season (0.5 WAR, or $2.1M worth of value while making $10M), Wood surrendered a run vs. the Royals on Sept. 13th then pitched a clean inning against Oakland on the 19th. Kerry’s O-Swing% fell off a cliff this year, from 31.3% in 2008 to just 19.4% in 2009. That’s one of the 10 lowest rates among all relievers. Wood’s 90 MPH cutter (+1.18 runs/100) and 79 MPH curve (+2.01) worked well, but his 96 MPH heater (-0.52) was often hit hard.

Perez has followed up a dominant stretch of pitching with some rocky outings (4 R, 2 H vs. Minnesota on the 14th and 2 R against the Tigers on the 22nd). The former Hurricane was quite sharp in July and August (4 BB in 19 IP), but he has dished out 5 walks in 8.1 September frames. If Perez can find the strike zone more consistently, he could challenge Wood for ninth-inning glory in 2010.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney is having a rocky September, with 7 runs and 8 walks allowed in 9.1 IP. The 32 year-old could be headed for a big payday, if some team sees a “proven closer” who collected 34 saves in 35 attempts this season.

A more thorough examination, though, would uncover mediocre peripheral stats (7.93 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 4.31 XFIP). Other warning signs: Rodney’s rate of contact within the strike zone jumped up to 83.6% (79.5% career avg.), with his overall contact rate climbing to 76.7% (73% career avg). Rodney hasn’t posted a WAR total above 0.7 dating back to 2002; his performance has been worth an average of $2.4M per season over the past three years.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

September has not been kind to Johnson, as he has coughed up 11 hits and 9 runs in 6 innings pitched. His XFIP for the year is 4.06. The 26 year-old has posted rates of 6.62 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9, with a 52 percent groundball rate.

Looking forward to 2010, Johnson’s principal competition, assuming the O’s don’t look outside of the organization, might be righty Kam Mickolio (currently sidelined with an elbow injury). Part of the Erik Bedard trade (the gift that keeps on giving for Baltimore fans), Mickolio stands 6-foot-7, sits in the mid-90’s with his fastball and has punched out 10.6 hitters per nine innings at the AAA level. However, inconsistent control has stalled his progress.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon is untouchable right now. The 25 year-old closer with NFL lineman size has not allowed a run to score on his watch in over a month (Aug. 19th, to be exact). Over that time frame, Broxton has laid waste to hitters with 26 K’s and three walks in 14.2 IP. Jon has 13.69 K/9 for the year, while inducing weak grounders when hitters actually do manage to make contact (55.2 GB%). Broxton’s +3.60 Win Probability Added is tops in the National League.

Heath Bell, Padres

Is Heath tiring in September? Bell has gotten his bell rung for 13 hits, 8 runs and 5 walks in 13 frames this month. There’s nothing wrong with his velocity (93.6 MPH in Sept.), but the pitch has been smacked (-0.6 runs/100, compared to +1.67 for the year). Rough finish or not, Bell has been outstanding the season. With 9.86 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9, Heath has a 3.18 Expected Fielding Independent ERA.

Huston Street, Rockies

Sidelined since September 1st with a biceps injury, Street returned to action on the 22nd against the Padres. Franklin Morales could get a couple more save ops as Huston gets back into working order, though there’s no reason to doubt that Street will have the job back before long. In 55.1 IP this season, the former A has whiffed 10.25 per nine innings while issuing just 1.79 BB/9.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman has collected four saves since the last Closer Report, K’ing four and walking none in four innings from Sept. 13th to the 23rd. Trevor hasn’t been at dominant force that his 1.84 ERA would indicate (his HR/FB rate is 3.5%) , but his XFIP is a solid 3.63. That low HR/FB rate and good fortune on balls put in play (.254 BABIP) inflate the figure somewhat, but Hoffman’s 85.5 MPH “heat” has been worth +2.81 runs per 100 pitches thrown. He continues to pull the strong with aplomb, too (+4.08 runs/100).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson continues to roll. He hasn’t coughed up a run since August 25th, a stretch of 10 innings in which the high-octane righty has punched out 12 and walked just one. Putting an exclamation point on an excellent season, Wilson has struck out the side in each of his last two appearances (Sept. 21st and 23rd vs. Arizona). In 70 frames, the former 24th-round pick has posted rates of 10.16 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9. Wilson’s fastball, straight as an arrow in 2008, has shown more tailing action this year. His run value with the pitch has climbed from +0.89 runs/100 pitches in ’08 to +1.67 this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod is missing plenty of bats as a forgettable 2009 season comes to a close (10 K in 6.2 IP), but he has also allowed four runs in the process. Rodriguez’s K/BB ratio (2.03) is the lowest of his career, with a 4.06 XFIP (his XFIP has increased every season since 2004). K-Rod’s 93 MPH fastball has been adequate (+0.03 runs/100 pitches) and his mid-80’s change is still sweet (+4.2 runs/100), but his 80 MPH curve has lacked bite (-0.18 runs/100, +2.56 career). Rodriguez has thrown a first-pitch strike just 50.5% of the time (58% MLB avg).

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano got slammed against Philly on Sept. 19th, giving up 5 hits, 4 runs and a homer. The Mets have been more accommodating, as the pending free agent notched back-to-back saves on the 22nd and the 23rd. Soriano has a career-best 11.9 K/9, with both his 93 MPH fastball (+1.21 runs/100) and 83 MPH slider (+1.55) giving hitters fits.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde hit a bit of a rough patch since our last Closer Report, giving up 5 hits and 2 runs in 3 frames from Sept. 19th to the 23rd. In his walk year, Papa Grande has punched out 9.88 batters per nine innings, with 3.18 BB/9. Valverde has gradually increased the usage of his splitter, while tossing fewer heaters:

2006: 84.4% FB, 9.8% SF
2007: 77.8% FB, 20% SF
2008: 74.1% FB, 24.4% SF
2009: 69.4% FB, 26.5% SF

Counter intuitively, Valverde’s K rate has dipped all four years (from 12.59 per nine in ’06 to the aforementioned 9.88 this year), while his outside-swing% has jumped (22.4% in ’06 to 32.6% in ’09).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero collected five saves in five scoreless frames from Sept. 12th to the 17th, whiffing three and walking none. The wheels came off against Florida on the 18th, however, as he coughed up four runs and four hits. Entering the 9th with a 3-0 lead, Cincy had about a 95% chance of getting the W before it all blew up like a cheap Acme bomb.

Cordero has turned in back-to-back ordinary seasons, with a 4.08 XFIP in 2008 and a 4.11 XFIP this year. His K rate (7.79 per nine) is down, the product of fewer outside swings (25.2% in ’09, 30.4% in ’08) and more contact (75.5% in ’09, 70.7% in ’08).

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Marmol continues to make Cubs fans and fantasy owners all twitchy. The 26 year-old with the wicked slider is generating huge whiff totals in September (13 K in 9.2 IP), but those punch outs are accompanied by eye-popping walk totals (six so far this month). Marmol has issued a mind-bending 7.47 walks per nine frames in 2009. To put that into context, the closest “competition” for Carlos among relievers (minimum 50 IP) is Florida’s Renyel Pinto, at 6.79.

As one might expect, Marmol is falling behind hitters often (50.2 first-pitch strike%, 58% MLB. avg). Opponents have responded to Carlos’ oscillating from unhittable to unable to toss a strike by laying off his stuff thrown off the plate:

O-Swing%, by year:

2007: 30.1
2008: 24.2
2009: 21.1

(25% MLB avg.)

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

The 36 year-old righty enjoyed a charmed 2009 season until the calendar flipped to September. Franklin posted minuscule ERA’s for most of the year, despite just so-so peripherals (6.56 K/9, 3.2 BB/9). This month, Franklin has surrendered 12 hits, 7 runs and 7 walks in 7.1 IP. Ryan’s XFIP for the year is 4.14, over two runs higher than his ERA (1.98). Franklin is a decent middle reliever, not a shut-down late-inning option.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Watch Out For: Joel Hanrahan

Hanrahan is battling a sore elbow and ever-present control problems (20 BB in 29.1 IP with the Bucs), so Capps probably doesn’t have to worry about someone stealing his job right now. Of course, that point has been entirely moot, with the Pirates plummeting toward a possible 100-loss season (56-94 at the moment).

In limited September work, Capps has allowed 9 hits and 3 runs in 8 IP, with 5 K’s, 1 BB and 1 HR. His K’s and walks aren’t as bad as his 5.79 ERA would suggest (7.36 K/9, 2.81 BB/9), but home runs have been a serious problem (1.75 HR/9). Capps’ home run/fly ball rate (13.9%) is a little inflated, but the flyball-centric hurler has a yawn-inducing 4.52 XFIP.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Nunez notched saves on Sept. 15th, 16th, 18th and the 22nd, but Lindstrom did collect his first since June when he subdued the Reds on the 19th. Here’s a tale of the tape between the two in 2009:

K/9: 8.03 Nunez, 7.14 Lindstrom
BB/9: 3.18 Nunez, 4.63 Lindstrom
HR/9: 1.80 Nunez, 0.96 Lindstrom
XFIP: 4.26 Nunez, 4.73 Lindstrom

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

Gutierrez tallied scoreless saves vs. the Padres on Sept. 14 and the 15th. However, his last two appearances have been bumpy. He gave up two hits and a run while still getting a save against Colorado on the 18th, then surrendered 3 hits and 3 runs vs. San Francisco in a non-save situation on the 22nd.

Overall, Juan has 8.38 K/9 and 3.99 BB/9 this year. The 26 year-old former starter has an unusually deep mix of pitches for a ‘pen arm, with a mid-90’s fastball, 83 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve and a mid-80’s change. The slider (used over a quarter of the time) has been Gutierrez’s key offering, with a run value of +3.25 per 100 pitches.

Brad Lidge/Ryan Madson, Phillies

Watch Out For: Brett Myers

Want an example of why saves are a lousy barometer of relief performance? Look no further than Lidge over the past couple weeks. Brad was “successful” three out of four times by the letter of the save, despite getting slammed for 6 runs, 8 hits and 2 walks in 3.2 innings pitched. His latest blow-up occurred vs. Florida yesterday.

It’s hard to find any redeeming quality in Lidge’s season. His XFIP is 4.78, the result of a ballooning walk rate (5.53 BB/9), among other things. His feared mid-80’s slider has been ordinary (+0.07 runs/100, +2.06 career), while Lidge’s fastball has been downright toxic (-3.08 runs/100). When Lidge has actually tossed a pitch over the plate, opponents are making contact far more often (84.4 Z-Contact%, 75.1% career avg). Per Wins Above Replacement, Lights Out has seen a full 3-win swing in value (2.2 WAR in 2008, -0.8 in 2009).

With manager Charlie Manuel not having the utmost confidence in Myers’ health, Madson figures to reclaim the role if Philly finally admits that Lidge just isn’t rounding into form.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal has been mauled this September. In eight innings, Mac has issued 10 walks, while allowing 13 hits and nine runs. The 32 year-old righty hasn’t shown any semblance of control in 2009, with a Marmol-esque 6.7 BB/9. He’s not even fooling hitters like he used to, with 5.44 K/9 and a contact rate (84.2%) well above his career 78.1% average.

Stock Up

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Oakland’s 21 year-old rookie was plenty good during the first half of the 2009 season, but he has ascended into elite territory since the Midsummer Classic:

1st Half: 87.1 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.78 BB/9
2nd Half: 77.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.21 BB/9

Anderson’s uptick in performance coincided with an increase in velocity:

Anderson’s fastball and slider velocity, by month:

April: 91 MPH for the fastball, 82.7 MPH for the slider
May: 91.4, 82.4
June 92.6, 83.8
July: 93.6, 85
August: 93, 84.2
September: 93.4, 84.2

Anderson’s souped-up fastball hasn’t been dominant (-0.61 runs/100 pitches for the year), but that mid-80’s slider has been deadly (+2.79 runs/100, best in the majors). What makes the pitch so wicked? It may be the unusual depth and bite on the offering. Anderson’s slider drops in the zone 3.4 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. By comparison, the average lefty slider has +1.7 inches of vertical movement (rising 1.7 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin).

Howie Kendrick, Angels

Optioned to AAA Salt Lake in June, Kendrick has returned to the majors with a vengeance. His second-half surge (.385/.409/.594 in 149 PA) owes something to an obscene .430 BABIP, but Howie (or is it Howard?) is hammering the ball with a .209 ISO since the break. Overall, Kendrick has a .344 wOBA and a .153 ISO, both career bests. He’s still a free swinger who rarely draws a free pass (4.9 BB%), but the former top prospect has gradually tightened his zone while making more contact:

2007: 40.1 O-Swing%, 75.6 Contact%
2008: 36.6 O-Swing%, 76.2 Contact%
2009: 32.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Contact%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 81%, respectively)

Scott Feldman, Rangers

With 5.3 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9, Feldman has been more solid rotation cog (4.59 Expected Fielding Independent ERA) than the breakout ace that his ERA (3.62) or win total (17) would suggest. However, the 26 year-old has undergone one drastic transformation over the past few seasons.

Prior to the 2008 season, Feldman was essentially a ROOGY (Right-Handed One Out Guy), a somewhat pejorative term used to describe righty relievers who get pummeled by southpaw batters. His side-arm motion generated lots of groundballs (58 GB% from 2005-2007), but his opportunities against opposite-handed batters were limited.

He switched release points and jobs in ’08, moving into the rotation. Feldman’s peripherals (4.4 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 5.25 XFIP) weren’t all that special. In 2009, Feldman has changed his pitching approach. He tossed a fastball 63.5% of the time in ’08, but he has thrown a heater just 44.9% this season.

In place of the conventional fastball, Feldman is relying heavily upon a 90 MPH cutter (thrown 33% of the time). The pitch has been extremely effective, with a value of +2.94 runs per 100 pitches. That figure may be inflated a little by Feldman’s good fortune of balls put in play (the run values are results-based, so a low BABIP or HR/FB rate could influence the pitch values), but that cutter has helped him battle southpaws. Lefties lashed Scott for a .846 OPS in 2008 (17 percent worse than the league average), but just a .623 OPS in 2009 (38 percent better than the league average).

Felipe Lopez, Brewers

Coming off of a pair of tepid seasons at the plate (.295 wOBA in 2007, .320 in 2008), Lopez had to settle for a 1-year, $3.5M deal with the Diamondbacks over the winter. Without question, Felipe was one of the best bargains on the free agent market, accumulating 4.6 WAR between the D-Backs and the Brewers. That production is worth roughly $20-$21M.

Lopez has been fortunate, with a .364 BABIP this year. According to this expected BABIP calculator, the switch-hitter should have a BABIP around .333. That would make his .312/.382/.433 line something closer to .281/.351/.402. That still equates to a wOBA of about .345, besting his work during a nomadic stretch that saw Lopez roam through Cincinnati, Washington and St. Louis. Lopez’s walk rate this season is up to 10.1% (8.1 and 8.2% in ’07 and ’08).

Robinson Tejeda, Royals

When your club can’t see first place with the aid of the Keck Telescopes, September baseball can be a drag. But there is one perk associated with being woefully out of contention: the chance to evaluate players in expanded roles.

Case in point: Robinson Tejeda. For most of his pro career, Tejeda has thrown really, really hard (94.3 MPH in 2009) toward the general vicinity of home plate. However, the former Ranger and Phillie has shown about as much control as Dayton Moore near an expensive, low-OBP position player (5.11 BB/9 career).

So far, Tejeda has taken to the rotation better than expected. In four starts spanning 22.1 innings, Robinson has posted a 24/10 K/BB ratio, with a microscopic 0.81 ERA. The 27 year-old has, of course, been exceptionally lucky on balls in play (.170 BABIP as a starter).

But, Tejeda has retained his velocity battling lineups multiple times (94.5 MPH), while garnering plenty of outside swings (33.3%, 25% MLB average) and posting a low contact rate (73.7%, 81% MLB average). It’s just four starts, so no conclusions can really be drawn. Still, Tejeda at least gives Royals fans something to focus on while waiting for Billy Butler‘s next AB or Zack Greinke’s next start.

Stock Down

Freddy Sanchez, Giants

The Pirates received plenty of backlash from fans and the local press for trading Sanchez, a respected community member and a decent second baseman when healthy, to the Giants this past summer. That venom aimed at the organization didn’t take into account that the 31 year-old might just be breaking down physically.

Courtesy of Sportsnet, here’s Sanchez’s sizeable list of ailments since the beginning of the 2007 season:

Sep 7, 2009: Missed 19 games (left shoulder injury).
Aug 25, 2009: Left shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
Aug 18, 2009: Left shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Aug 2, 2009: Missed 5 games (sore left knee).
Jul 27, 2009: Sore left knee, day-to-day.
Jul 10, 2009: Missed 6 games (back injury).
Jul 3, 2009: Back injury, day-to-day.
Sep 13, 2008: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Sep 12, 2008: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Aug 3, 2008: Missed 5 games (back spasms).
Jul 28, 2008: Back spasms, day-to-day.
Apr 14, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 13, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Apr 5, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 4, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 5 games of the regular season (shoulder injury).
Sep 26, 2007: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 19, 2007: Missed 3 games (flu).
Jun 15, 2007: Flu, day-to-day.
Apr 26, 2007: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Apr 25, 2007: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Apr 18, 2007: Missed 1 game (left wrist injury).
Apr 17, 2007: Left wrist injury, day-to-day.
Apr 7, 2007: Missed 5 games (sprained knee).
Mar 31, 2007: Sprained knee, 15-day DL.

Shoulder and knee maladies have proven especially troublesome. Sanchez is largely the same aggressive, high-contact hitter with just a smidge of extra-base power. However, he has posted the highest K rate of his career (16.6 K%), and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (89.7 percent) is below the 92-96% range he hovered around from 2005-2008 (88% MLB average).

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Chamberlain’s first year as a full-time starter has not gone as smoothly as Yankee fans or fantasy owners would have liked, as the former Cornhusker has posted a mediocre 4.70 XFIP in 146.2 IP. The big righty, who turns 23 tomorrow, has missed a decent number of bats (7.61 K/9). However, his control has lagged behind.

Joba has posted a paltry 54.9 First-Pitch Strike%, compared to the 58% major league average. His hard mid-80’s slider (+0.98 runs/100) and high-70’s curve (+0.3 runs/100) have fooled hitters, but Chamberlain’s 92.5 MPH gas has often been torched (-1.15 runs/100).

The 6-2, 230 pounder’s struggles will likely spur more unwarranted discussion of his long-term role, but it’s important to keep in mind that Chamberlain is still very young and is surely capable of better in the rotation in the years to come. It’s extremely difficult to conjure up an argument for pushing him to the ‘pen.

Nick Markakis, Orioles

The 25 year-old Markakis remains a valuable commodity, but it’s hard not to be let down by his 2009 campaign. Over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis made steady offensive improvement:

2006: 8.1 BB%, .346 wOBA
2007: 8.7 BB%, .366 wOBA
2008: 14.3 BB%, .389 wOBA

The lefty batter was an on-base fiend last year, swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. This year, Markakis has chased 23.4% of pitches off the dish. His walk rate has nearly been cut in half (7.5 BB%), with his wOBA falling back down to his rookie level (.345 wOBA). After posting ISO’s of .185 in each of 2007 and 2008, Markakis has compiled a .156 mark this year (again, right around his rookie production of .157).

Fausto Carmona, Indians

In late May, we took a gander at the apocalyptic path Carmona’s career has taken since his banner 2007 season. He pitched 215 frames, posted a sub-four FIP and generated a huge number of worm-burners (64.3 GB%) with his low-to-mid-90’s sinker.

Since that massive increase in workload (he pitched 74.2 major league innings in 2006), Carmona has been a train wreck. He walked 5.22 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has actually shown slightly worse control in 2009 (5.37 BB/9). While still a groundball pitcher, Carmona isn’t posting the same kind of extreme rates (54.2 GB% in 2009). His sinker has gone from a plus pitch to possibly the worst in the big leagues:

Carmona’s runs/100 pitches value with his sinker:

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -2.26

Suffice it to say, that’s a problem when Fausto still tosses a sinker nearly three-quarters of the time (73% in 2009). Carmona’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone has fallen from 51.4% in 2007 to a lousy 44.9% in 2009 (49-50% MLB average). It’s sad to say, but the 25 year-old has turned into the A.L.’s answer to Daniel Cabrera.

Milton Bradley, Cubs

Though some Chicago columnists may claim otherwise, Bradley probably isn’t responsible for global warming, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and stalled health care legislation. That being said, the 31 year-old switch-hitter’s first year in the Friendly Confines has been anything but amicable. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the rest of the 2009 season, though the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance.

If Milton has indeed played his final game this season, he ends up with a disappointing .345 wOBA that pales in comparison to his .405 mark in 2007 and .423 figure in 2008. Bradley was still extremely patient (14.4 BB%), but his pop was nowhere to be found. His ISO, .239 in ’07 and .242 in ’08, plunged to .140 with the Cubs.

Bradley didn’t hit the DL, but he missed time with groin, calf and knee problems. He continued to crush fastballs (+1.21 runs/100) and sliders (+0.85), but he was downright Pedro Cerrano-like against curveballs (-2.84 runs/100) and changeups (-0.85). He’s owed $9M in 2010 and $12M in 2011.

Since the Tampa Bay (then Devil) Rays selected him with the second overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft, B.J. Upton has displayed every ingredient necessary to become a five-tool superstar at the major league level.

The 25 year-old has shown excellent plate discipline (12.1 BB% in 2007, 15.4% in 2008). Upton has unleashed feats of strength that belie his lithe 6-3, 185 pound frame, including 24 home runs in 2007 and a 2008 post season (7 HR, .652 SLG%) that appeared to solidify his status as a star. He swiped in excess of 40 bases in 2008, and has a chance at doing so again this season. You name a skill, and B.J. has shown it at one point or another.

Defensively, Upton has acclimated himself very well to center field (11.2 UZR/150 in ’09, nearly identical to his work in ’08). That range has helped keep him a viable starter (1.9 WAR). But why is it that, as the 2009 season comes to a close, B.J. has been one of the worst hitters in baseball?

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ’08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

While he won’t be confused with Jeff Francoeur any time soon, Upton has been less patient at the plate. His walk rate has dipped to nine percent, down considerably from the aforementioned marks in ’07 and ’08.

Upton swung at roughly 17 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone between 2007 and 2008. That figure is up a bit, to slightly over 19 percent this season (still well below the 25% MLB average). Upton is also offering at fewer pitches within the strike zone as well, taking a cut at roughly 66 percent of in-zone offerings from 2007-2008 and about 64 percent in 2009 (66% MLB average). There’s nothing overly alarming about these trends, but chasing more balls and taking more strikes is never a happy development.

From a batted-ball standpoint, Upton’s rate of line drives hit is down considerably. It’s important to keep in mind that the line drive/fly ball distinction is a subjective one made by the official scorer (and the rate at which liners are coded varies greatly by stadium). That being said, B.J.’s liner rate has fallen from over 19 percent from 2007-2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009. Again using a 500 PA cut off, Upton has the lowest LD% among all batters.

Where have those liners gone? Upton has greatly increased his rate of fly balls hit. B.J. hit a fly ball 37.6% of the time in 2007 and 30.6% in 2008, but that figure is up to 41.2% this year. While fly balls have a lower batting average on balls in play than grounders, lofting the ball into the air is obviously a positive trend in terms of hitting for power (fly balls hit in the A.L. in 2009 have a .603 slugging percentage).

Well, hitting more fly balls is usually a positive trend. Upton just hasn’t done much with those fly balls this season. His home run/fly ball rate, 19.8% in ’07 and 7.4% in ’08, is just 6.7% in 2009. That puts B.J. in the same company as Andy LaRoche and Vernon Wells. Upton slugged .952 on fly balls hit in 2007 and .534 in 2008. In 2009? He’s slugging just .396.

When Upton has taken a pitcher deep, he’s not clearing the fence by much, either. Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, we can see that B.J.’s homers don’t pack as much punch.

Hit Tracker records, among other things, the “Standard Distance” of a home run. This essentially tells us how far the ball would have traveled if it had been hit with no wind, at a 70 degree temperature and at sea level. By factoring out wind, temperature and altitude, Standard Distance attempts to put HR distance on equal footing across stadiums. Here are Upton’s Standard Distances over the past three years:

2007: 394.7
2008: 406.7
2009: 387.5

(The A.L. average Standard Distance in 2009 is 394.7)

In terms of pitch selection, B.J. has scuffled against every type except curveballs. Upton has never had much problem with yellow hammers (+1.18 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +1.15 career). Sliders continue to stifle him, however (-1.8 runs/100 in ’09, -0.67 career). And, his performance versus changeups has taken several steps back (-0.92 runs/100, +0.82 career). Upton’s fall against fastballs has been quite dramatic:

Runs/100 value vs. fastballs, 2007-2009

2007: +1.87
2008: +0.02
2009: -0.24

Overall, Upton has been somewhat unlucky this season. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (which takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR, K’s, SB, LD%, fly balls, pop ups and grounders to give a more accurate measure of XBABIP), B.J.’s XBABIP is .331, compared to his actual .304 mark. Even if all of those extra hits were singles, that would bring his line up from .231/.301/.359 to .258/.328/.386.

Still, that’s a far cry from what many had predicted, myself included. I’m left wondering if Upton has ever been truly healthy in 2009. He was hampered by a sore ankle earlier this month. And, more importantly, Upton openly admits that the off-season shoulder surgery which sidelined him in spring training and early April remains an issue.

Upton’s 2009 campaign has surely been a bitter pill to swallow for owners who expended a high draft pick on him. However, it’s not time to abandon ship. Despite the aggravating season, B.J. is just 25 years old and has already achieved a high degree of success in the big leagues. Given an off-season to mend his aching body, Upton could be a relative bargain in 2010. It would be a shame if such a talent continued to be held back by physical ailments.

The talents of Tampa Bay Rays southpaw David Price are undeniable. The Vanderbilt product slings low-to-mid-90’s gas with seeming ease, overwhelming hitters with a deadly combination of speed and movement.

During what some might consider a “disappointing” 2009 campaign, Price has punched out nearly seven-and-a-half hitters per nine innings, with slightly less than four walks per nine frames. Home runs have been a legitimate issue for Tampa’s prized arm (1.23 HR/9, with an average 11.5 home run/fly ball rate), but his Fielding Independent ERA sits at 4.57. For a guy who recently turned 24, in his first year as a starter in the big leagues, in the DH league and the cut-throat A.L. East, a league-average FIP is nothing to be ashamed of.

That aforementioned heater has been Price’s bread-and-butter. He has tossed a fastball over 73 percent of the time, with an average velocity of 93.1 MPH. The pitch has been effective if not spectacular, with a value of +0.37 runs per 100 fastballs thrown. Price’s vaunted mid-80’s slider, on the other hand, might as well be on the side of a milk carton.

While his work from 2008 covers just 14 regular-season innings and came in relief (making this an apples-to-oranges comparison), Price tossed a slider slightly over 30% of the time in the ‘pen last year, with a run value of +0.94 per 100 pitches. In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America dubbed Price’s slider a “plus-plus” pitch, “reminiscent of John Smoltz’s with its depth and 87-88 MPH velocity.” That’s awfully high praise, considering how wicked Smoltz’s slider has been over the years (+2.19 runs/100 career).

In 2009? Price has chucked a hard breaking ball just slightly more than 18 percent of the time, with a grisly -2.13/100 pitch run value. Among starters throwing at least 100 innings, Price has the lowest slider run value in the business (Justin Verlander, Brian Bannister and Aaron Cook are listed as having worse values, but they essentially never throw the pitch).

The 6-6, 225 pound lefty’s struggles with his slider manifest in higher contacts rates than one might expect from a power-armed prospect. Against Price’s pitches thrown within the strike zone, opposing batters have put the bat on the ball 86.4 percent of the time (87.8% MLB average). On pitches thrown out of the zone, hitters have made contact 72.1 percent (61.8% MLB average).

Presumably, a decent portion of those outside offerings are breaking pitches that hitters are either fouling off or putting in play (and, given his run value, often loudly). The list of pitchers with the highest O-Contact percentages is flooded with soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact types like Jeremy Sowers, Livan Hernandez and Jamie Moyer. Not exactly the sort of company one would expect Price to be keeping.

David Price, in his current form, is still a pretty decent pitcher in the DH league. But in order for him to transform into the dominant force that scouts envisioned, he is going to have to rediscover his slider. Big league hitters are too talented for a starter to combat them with one, non-knuckling offering.

Stock Up

Chris Coghlan, Marlins

Talk about a seamless transition to the majors. Often lost in the imposing shadows of top-tier prospects like Cameron Maybin, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, Coghlan has posted a robust .365 wOBA with the Fish in 2009.

The 2006 supplemental first-rounder out of Mississippi displayed exceptional control of the strike zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 11.3 K%), and that firm grasp of the zone has been on display during Coghlan’s rookie year. The 24 year-old has walked 10.5% of the time while whiffing 16.6%, offering at just 20% of pitches thrown off the plate (25% MLB average).

Primarily a second baseman in the minor leagues, Coghlan has not made an especially smooth shift to left field (-13.8 UZR/150). It remains to be seen where he lines up in the long term (will Florida hold on to Dan Uggla?), but his bat is about as polished possible for a rookie.

Brad Penny, Giants

While in Boston, Penny was drubbed for a 5.61 ERA. However, his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) of 4.48 suggested that he was basically a league-average starter. Penny punched out 6.08 batters per nine frames with the Red Sox, while issuing 2.87 BB/9. His BABIP was a lofty .336.

Since signing with San Francisco, the 31 year-old righty has allowed 4 runs in 22 IP, punching out 10 and walking four. Penny is neither the punching bag that his Boston stint would suggest, nor is he suddenly an ace with the Giants. He’s a quality mid-rotation option.

Boston possesses decision-makers far smarter than I. But, it’s hard not to feel as through the normally thorough, pragmatic organization made a couple of knee-jerk reactions in discarding Penny and John Smoltz.

That’s not hindsight bias; there were indicators suggesting that both still possessed the skills to retire hitters at the highest level. While it likely won’t have any consequence on the club’s playoff chances (in excess of 96% at the moment), Boston would probably rather not be left hoping that Paul Byrd can party like it’s 2002 or that Daisuke Matsuzaka can, you know, throw a strike.

Michael Brantley, Indians

Grady Sizemore is done for the season. That’s a downer for any baseball fan, but at least we get to take an extended look at the PTBNL in the 2008 Sabathia Swap.

Brantley, 22 is a patient lefty hitter with serious wheels. His .267/.350/.361 line at AAA Columbus does not jump off the page, but Brantley worked the count well (11.4 BB%, 10.5 K%) while swiping many bags at a high-percentage clip (46 SB in 51 attempts, good for a 90.2% success rate).

Brantley doesn’t any lightning in his lumber (.094 ISO in 2009, .069 ISO in his minor league career), and he’ll have to establish himself in a corner spot with Cleveland. But fantasy owners searching for steals, without wanting to settle on some Willy Taveras-like out-machine, could do worse than Brantley.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox

For a 25 year-old with a career 4.24 FIP in the major leagues, Buchholz sure has been subject of many “what’s wrong with him?” debates. The lanky 6-3 right-hander boasts a wicked mid-70’s curve (+0.62 runs/100 pitches career) and a low-80’s changeup (+1.03), as well as a nifty mid-80’s slider (+1.50). Buchholz’s 92-94 MPH fastball, however, has often missed the mark (-1.11).

In 2008, Buchholz called upon his heater just 47.4% of the time. He seems to be gaining trust in the offering this season, as he’s throwing it more (over 56%) and with better results (+0.15 runs/100). He’s not blowing hitters away (6.18 K/9), but Buchholz’s walk rate has fallen from 4.86 BB/9 in 2008 to 3.79 in 2009. His transition to the big leagues might not have been immediate, but there’s still plenty of reason to expect Buchholz to be a major asset for the Sox in the years to come.

Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

Very quietly, Montero has authored a sweet .366 wOBA for the D-Backs in 2009. The Caracas, Venezuela native performed well in admittedly hitter-friendly venues in the minors, and he has gotten progressively better in the big leagues (.296 wOBA in 2007, .330 in ’08). Chase Field certainly helps, but even in a neutral venue, Montero has been impressive. Miguel has posted +10.6 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value) this season, 5th among all backstops.

Montero is an awfully liberal swinger, taking a cut at 29.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone and hacking at 75.3% of offerings within the zone (the averages are about 25% and 66%, respectively). However, that aggressive approach has not manifested in a high first-pitch strike percentage (his 55.2 F-Strike% is below the 58% MLB average), and Montero has drawn a walk in 8.6% of his PA.

Stock Down

Alex Rios, White Sox

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, um, isn’t exactly fond of his newly-acquired outfielder. Picked up from the Blue Jays in a straight waiver claim in August, Rios has compiled a line with the Good Guys that would make DeWayne Wise puff his chest out in comparison (.140/.156/.215 in 97 PA).

The 28 year-old’s wOBA has plummeted from the .350-.360 range from 2006-2008 to a paltry .302 in 2009. Has Rios been the victim of very poor luck, or is there something deeper going on here?

The answer appears to be a bit of both. Punching Alex’s homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives flyballs, pop ups and grounders into this expected BABIP calculator, we find that Rios’ BABIP “should” be around .306, instead of his actual mark of .274.

Even assuming all of those additional hits would be singles, that takes Rios’ line to .274/.322/.421 instead of .242/.290/.389. That equates to a wOBA of about .334. Clearly a step down from his ’06-’08 lines, though his league-average bat and typically plus defense might make that contract less onerous than it appears to be at first glance.

Of course, that’s not to say there’s no reason to be concerned. Consider the following trends:

-Rios’ walk rate has dipped 7.9% of his PA in 2007, 6.5% in ’08 and just 5.9% in 2009
-His K rate has risen from 16% in ’07, 17.6% in ’08 and 19.1% in ’09
-Rios’ ISO has fallen from .201 in ’07, .170 in ’08 and .147 in ’09
-Alex is getting jammed more often, with his infield/ fly ball rate climbing from 6.6% in ’07, 7.9% in ’08 and 12% in ’09
-Rios’ performance vs. fastballs has fallen off a cliff: +2.30 runs per 100 fastballs seen in ’06, +1.75 in ’07, +0.79 in ’08 and -0.13 in ’09.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Davies’ appearance here might seem like a head-scratcher. After all, the former Braves prospect has surrendered just two runs in 17 September innings. The results are great. The process, however, is not.

Davies has dished out six walks in each of his past two starts. The 26 year-old righty has long struggled to hone his low-90’s heat, high-80’s slider/cutter, mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup. Davies has issued 4.49 BB/9 during his major league career, and he is up to 4.83 BB/9 in 2009.

It’s just plain difficult to have any kind of sustained success when you put yourself at the mercy of the batter so frequently. Davies has placed just 43.6% of his pitches within the strike zone this season (49% MLB average). Not surprisingly, that has led to his falling behind the hitter often (52.2% first-pitch strike percentage). Davies’ punitive demotion to AAA Omaha offered promise (46.1 IP, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9), but he hasn’t been able to avoid the free passes with K.C.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Signed to a 2-year, $18.5M pact during the off-season, Renteria has been little more than replacement-level in 2009 (0.2 WAR). While the 34 year-old plays a passable shortstop, his bat (-19 Batting Runs) has been all kinds of awful, even by Giants standards. Renteria’s pop continues to wane:

ISO, by year

2006: .144
2007: .138
2008: .111
2009: .079

Jermaine Dye, White Sox

Dye (who turns 36 this off-season) may find the free agent waters to be downright frosty this winter. His outfield D is DH-worthy (-17.4 UZR/150 in RF in 2009, and that’s an improvement on his 2006-2008 work). At the plate, Dye has been MIA since the All-Star break (.166/.266/.269; Jermaine, meet Alex. Alex, Jermaine).

It’s probably best not to jump to the conclusion that he’s suddenly “done”, though. Gruesome second half and all, Dye still has a .341 wOBA for the season, with a .204 ISO. His BABIP since the Midsummer Classic is stunningly low at .182.

Chris Volstad, Marlins

Volstad was vaporized for 24 runs in 19.2 IP during August, walking 13 batters and allowing 33 hits. His first September start (3 IP, 5 R, 5 BB) went little better.

Overall, though, Volstad has compiled a decent 4.39 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate). He has rates of 6.1 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9, but a huge 17.3 HR/FB% has put a massive dent in his ERA (now up to 5.17). The average for pitchers tends to be around 11-12%, and Volstad’s rate is the highest among all starters. That number should could down in 2010.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera missed several games with a sore groin, but he returned to pick up a save vs. the fading Rays on Sept. 7th (2 K, 1 BB) and then notched a W with a scoreless inning against Tampa the next day. The ageless king of the cutter has 9.99 K/9, with 1.56 BB/9 in 57.2 innings. That biting 91 MPH offering has been worth +2.34 runs per 100 pitches thrown.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against the White Sox on Sept. 6th, then surrendered a run and 2 H in a 1.1 inning save vs. the O’s on the 9th. Despite suffering through some control issues earlier in the year, Papelbon leads all big league relievers with a 4.57 Win Probability Added.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Since he was shockingly beaten for four runs and two dingers against the White Sox on Sept 2nd, Nathan has rebounded to collect three saves in three spotless innings (4 K, no walks or hits). The 34 year-old righty has shown no signs of tailing off in 2009, whiffing 11.82 batters per nine frames with 2.72 BB/9. Nathan’s 33.2 O-Swing% is his best mark dating back to 2002 (25% MLB avg), and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA sits at a shiny 3.01.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim was a busy man this week, collecting four saves (one apiece against LAA and CLE, and two vs. Detroit). In all, Soria struck out eight, walked one and allowed no runs in 3.2 IP. The Mexicutioner’s K rate has spiked in ’09, all the way up to 12.13 per nine innings (8.82 in 2008). Not surprisingly, Soria’s contact rate (71.5%, 80.5 MLB avg.) is a career low. His curveball (+4.79 runs/100 pitches thrown) is illegal in several states.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

As Dave Allen notes, Bailey has turned in a superb rookie campaign. The imposing right-hander has laid waste to hitters with a stifling 94 MPH fastball (+1.86 runs/100), 89 MPH cutter (+1.24) and a 78 MPH curve (+2.97). Bailey has been worth 2 Wins Above Replacement this season. Only Jonathan Broxton, Brian Wilson and Matt Thornton top that mark among relievers. The 25 year-old picked up his 23rd save of the season on Sept. 6th, striking out two against the Mariners.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Bobby worked just once since we last checked in on the A.L.’s closers, firing two scoreless innings vs. the A’s in a non-save situation on Sept. 9th. Jenks’ secondary stuff has been outstanding in 2009 (+1.91 runs/100 for the slider, +3.45 for the curve), but his fastball hasn’t been as effective. Bobby’s heater was worth +1.55 runs/100 in both 2007 and 2008, but the pitch checks in at -0.47 this year.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma has experienced plenty of control issues during the course of his big league career (5.3 BB/9), but he has not issued a free pass in his last seven frames. The electric right-hander hasn’t been a strike-throwing fiend or anything, but his 4.6 BB/9 rate is a career-best. Aardsma has been rather fortunate in the HR department (3.6 HR/FB%), but Safeco is a pretty sweet venue for a flyball reliever backed by outstanding defenders. His XFIP is 4.23.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Things have not been A-Okay for J.P. lately, as the finesse lefty who gets power results has given up four runs and four walks in 2 IP this month. Howell has actually appeared in five games in September, but one stint lasted just 0.1 IP, and his last two (the 5th and the 6th vs. Detroit) resulted in his being pulled before he recorded an out.

J.P.’s K rate has increased three years running (8.65 in ’07, 9.27 in ’08 and 10.74 in ’09), but so has his walk rate (3.71 in ’07, 3.93 in ’08, 4.24 in ’09). Despite the rough patch, Howell’s XFIP is still sturdy at 3.46.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Frank took the mound just once this past week, as Texas throttled Cleveland by a combined score of 31-14 in a three-game sweep. Francisco worked a scoreless frame during the first game of a Sept. 8th double-header vs. the Tribe, serving up a two-run tater to Matt LaPorta.

The 30 year-old power righty has punched out 9.94 hitters per nine frames in 2009, with a career-low 2.38 BB/9. Francisco is really attacking the strike zone (55.7 Zone%, 49.3% MLB avg.), and when he does place one off the plate, batters are chasing more often (26.9 O-Swing%, 22.7% career avg).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

After walking just one hitter in August, Fuentes has issued ball four on five occasions in 4 September frames. He has allowed five hits and two runs in the process. Fuentes’ XFIP has ballooned to 4.83 in 2009, as his K rate is a career-worst 7.99 per nine innings. Nothing seems imminent here, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep any eye on Jason Bulger down the stretch.

The 30 year-old former 1st-round pick of the D-Backs has posted rates of 8.74 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 this year. Control has always been a bugaboo for Bulger, however. He has issued 4.6 BB/9 during his major league tenure, with a 47.8 first-pitch strike% (58.2 MLB avg).

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs is back, but Frasor continues to get the call in the ninth inning. Frasor racked up three saves this week, taking down the Twins twice (Sept. 8th and the 10th) and then de-clawing the Tigers yesterday. He struck out two in three scoreless innings, without allowing a hit.

The former 33rd-round draft pick who bounced from Detroit to Los Angeles (Dodgers) before getting a shot in Toronto has posted rates of 8.76 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9 in 2009. An increase in his outside swing% (up to 24.8%; his career mark is 19%) has helped, and Frasor has turned in a very fine year. But a .250 BABIP and a 5.3 HR/FB% explain the difference between his great ERA (2.15) and merely good XFIP (3.77).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney is enduring an awfully rough September, having allowed five runs, four hits and five walks in 4.2 IP. The pending free agent may come with the Proven Closer (TM) tag, but his peripherals (8.37 K/9, 4.62 BB/9) remain more adequate than awesome. The 32 year-old has a 4.21 XFIP in 2009, the third straight season in which that figure has risen.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Appearances have been few and far between for Johnson as Baltimore plays out the string. The Bronx Bombers bashed Jim for 3 hits, 5 runs and two walks without retiring a batter on Sept. 2nd, and then he picked up a save in a much more quiet cameo against Texas on the 5th. In 61.2 IP this season, Johnson has struck out 6.28 per nine innings, with 2.92 BB/9.

Watch Your Back

Kerry Wood, Indians

Watch Out For: Chris Perez

Wood took some time off to rest his ailing shoulder, but he has chucked two clean innings since returning. He notched his 18th and 19th saves of the season against Minnesota on Sept. 4th and the 6th. That’s a happy development for Wood. Because, if you listen really closely, you can hear Perez breathing down Kerry’s neck.

The former St. Louis Cardinal experienced a bump in the road vs. Texas on the 8th (Marlon Byrd took him deep), but Perez has been money for the most part. Since coming to Cleveland, he has posted a 32/8 K/BB ratio in 25.2 IP.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

After an early-August hiccup which included 3 dingers and 4 runs in a five inning stretch from the 5th to the 15th, Broxton is back to dealing. The hardest-throwing reliever in the business (sorry, Daniel Bard) collected three saves this week. Broxton whiffed five and walked one in three innings, subduing the Padres and Diamondbacks (twice). With 13.57 K/9, Broxton is the leader in the clubhouse among relievers (tough luck again, Mr. Bard).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell also notched three saves this week, besting Broxton’s Dodgers on Sept. 6th and then cutting the Wild Card hopeful Giants down to size on the 8th and the 9th. He punched out two, walking one and allowing one hit in three frames. Heath’s 2009 season is very similar to the 2007 campaign that really put him on the map. His K/BB in ’09 is 3.42 (3.4 in ’07), with a 2.99 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (2.84 in ’07).

Huston Street, Rockies

Nursing a right biceps injury, Street hasn’t taken the mound since Sept. 1st. He’s making progress toward a return, though Franklin Morales surely wouldn’t mind of Huston took his sweet old time.

Morales is mowing hitters down this month, with 6 K’s, two walks, two hits and five saves in 5 IP. In 26.2 innings out of the ‘pen this season, the 23 year-old southpaw has punched out 27 batters while sitting at 94 MPH with his fastball. Control, however, remains a work in progress (14 BB in relief, with a 49.5 first-pitch strike% that’s way below the 58.2 percent MLB avg).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor whiffed two in a non-save appearance vs. San Francisco on Sept. 6th, but he fell victim to the blistering hitting machine that is Matt Holliday on the 8th. Holliday took Hoffman deep for a two-run shot that proved to be the difference in the game. The 41 year-old Hoffman has posted rates of 8.18 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 2009, with a 3.63 XFIP that’s nearly identical to his 2008 mark (3.59).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

During a season in which the Amazin’s have been forced to trot out lineups chock full of “you mean he’s still playing?” replacements, K-Rod’s peripherals have eroded for a 4th straight year (1.88 K/BB in 2009).

He hasn’t performed terribly, mind you, but Rodriguez has issued five free passes per nine frames. His first-pitch strike% has dipped to just 50.4% as well. Rodriguez’s hard mid-80’s changeup is still outstanding (+4.23 runs/100 pitches in ’09, +3.86 career), but his 80 MPH breaking ball is getting hit far more often than in years past (-0.14 runs/100 in ’09, +2.64 career). K-Rod picked up two saves this week against the Cubs, allowing a run and a walk in 1.2 IP.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Slumping Soriano: Rafael has surrendered four runs, seven hits and a homer in 4.1 IP this September. The Astros were particularly unkind to the pending free agent, hammering him in back-to-back games on the 8th and the 9th. Nothing is off velocity-wise, as Soriano is sitting 94.8 MPH this month (94.6 for the season). Gonzalez notched a save yesterday, though that was probably just Bobby Cox rightly not wanting to tax Soriano’s arm for a third straight day.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson racked up a save in an extended 1.2 inning appearance against Milwaukee on Sept. 5th (1 K, 1 H), then tossed a scoreless frame against San Diego on the 9th (no save, and he gave up two hits). The 26 year-old is turning in his finest season in the big leagues, posting a 3.35 XFIP. He has lowered his XFIP every year in the majors, and his 1.67 Win Probability Added in 2009 is closing in on his career-best 1.77 in 2008.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande aged a year this week. No, he wasn’t perturbed by poor pitching performances (he collected two saves and a W in three appearances, whiffing three in three scoreless innings). Rather, Houston GM Ed Wade clarified a paperwork error that listed Valverde as being 31 instead of 32. Still, Valverde’s got nothin’ on Miguel Tejada, who can attest to the fleeting nature of age 31 and 32.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero struck out the side vs. Atlanta while picking up a save on Sept. 6th, but Colorado crushed him for 2 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks in 0.2 inning blown save on the 9th. CoCo’s 1.83 K/BB ratio is his worst mark since 2000, as is his K rate (8.08 per nine frames). His XFIP (4.10) is over a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA (2.44). When it comes time for the 2010 draft, buyer beware.

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge gets the boot)

Watch Out For: Brett Myers

Enough is enough: Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel says that Lidge will work in “low stress” situations during the rest of September, which is a polite way of saying that he wants the forlorn reliever to go far, far away for a while. Lidge’s lost 2009 fell further into the abyss in September, as he walked three and allowed two runs in 3 IP. His fastball has been the worst in the majors (-3.07 runs/100 pitches), and that vaunted slider (+2.06 runs/100 career) isn’t doing much, either (-0.01).

Madson figures to get the first crack at ninth-inning opportunities. The 6-7 righty has turned in another stellar season in relief, striking out 9.05 batters per nine frames with 2.7 BB/9. Madson’s fastball velocity spiked during the second half of the 2008 season, and most assuredly, he has kept the extra heat in ’09 (95 MPH). The 29 year-old’s cheddar is giving batters problems (+0.81 runs/100 pitches), but his 84 MPH changeup has been even nastier (+2.50). Madson has induced outside swings 34.3% of the time, well above the 25% MLB avg.

We can’t totally count out the recently activated Myers, either. Hip surgery was supposed to close the book on Brett’s season, but he recovered more quickly than anticipated. Since returning on Sept. 5th, Myers has struck out three and walked two in 3.1 scoreless innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

After posting a microscopic ERA that defied his more modest peripherals, Franklin appears to be Earth-bound. In three September appearances, he has allowed four runs, five hits and three walks. Franklin walked only eight batters during the first four months of the season, but he issued six free passes in August, and September obviously isn’t off to a sterling beginning. Franklin’s XFIP is an ordinary 4.27, yet his ERA sits at 1.67.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman

Marmol has excelled this September, picking up five saves in 5.1 IP. He has whiffed eight and walked two, surrendering two hits in the process. With arms and legs flailing all over the place, as well as sky-high strikeout and walk rates (11.1 K/9, 7.95 BB/9), Marmol is among the more enjoyable hurlers to watch. His wicked low-80’s slider is still stifling the competition (+1.3 runs/100 pitches), though not to the same extent as previous seasons (+2.20 career) due to all of those batters trotting leisurely to first base.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Watch Out For: Joel Hanrahan

As the Pirates get ensnared in all sorts of undesired history in September, Capps trudges along toward the end of his worst season in the majors. In an ’09 campaign interrupted by an elbow injury (this after shoulder problems in ’08), the Mad Capper has served up 1.71 round-trippers per nine frames. He last collected a save on Aug. 27th.

Should Capps be looking over his shoulder? Since coming to the ‘Burgh in the Nyjer Morgan/Lastings Milledge/Sean Burnett swap, Hanrahan has punched out 33 batters in 26.1 IP. The easy narrative is that Hanrahan was horrible in Washington (7.71 ERA in 32.2 IP) and a change of scenery has made him a new man (2.05 ERA with the Bucs).

However, his K/BB ratio with the Nationals was actually higher (2.5 with the Nats, 1.94 with the Pirates). The former Dodgers prospect remains the same high-octane, control-challenged reliever. He may never be a lock-down option, but he’s certainly useful. Hanrahan is not nearly as bad as his 2009 line would suggest: his BABIP is an obscene .412. Joel’s 4.21 XFIP bests Capps’ 4.44 figure. Neither is an ideal option, but keep Hanrahan in mind of you’re jonesing for saves.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Nunez (4.26 XFIP, 7.92 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.76 HR/9) seemingly hasn’t done anything to get an iron-clad grip on the closer role, but he continues to take nine-inning duties. The former Pirates prospect was lashed for 3 hits, 3 runs and two big flies against Washington on Sept. 6th (Ryan Zimmerman and Willie Harris did the damage). Nunez did, however, recover to collect scoreless saves against the Mets on the 8th and the 9th.

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

So far, so good: since taking over for the injured Qualls, Gutierrez has allowed one run in 4.2 IP. During that time frame, the Venezuelan native has picked up two saves, striking out three and walking none. Overall, Gutierrez has punched out 8.42 hitters per nine innings, with 3.92 BB/9. His repertoire is expansive (a 95 MPH fastball, 84 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve and an 84 MPH changeup), though his slider (+4.33 runs/100) has been the most effective by far.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Robert Meiklejohn MacDougal (really, that’s his name) has been touched up this September. In 4 IP over five appearances, the former Demon Deacon has coughed up four runs, four walks and seven hits. Mac’s XFIP with the Nationals is 4.62, and he has posted jus a 54.2 first-pitch strike% overall this year.

In some organizations, right-hander Jeff Niemann would be star pupil of the pitching staff. The 26 year-old did not have the most pristine bill of health in the minor leagues, dealing with intermittent shoulder problems, but he punched out over a batter per inning while displaying average control. The 4th overall selection out of Rice in the 2004 draft stands a towering 6-foot-9, with a 260+ pound frame that pumps low-90’s gas.

As a Tampa Bay Ray, however, Niemann is just another promising arm for a team boasting a veritable assembly line of premium pitching prospects. Regardless, fantasy owners will want to take note of Niemann’s more dominant performances in the second half. Take a look at his peripherals from April-June, and then July-September:

April-June: 79.2 IP, 5.08 K/9, 3.95 BB/9
July-September: 81.2 IP, 6.72 K/9, 1.65 BB/9

Since July, Niemann has boosted his K rate, while simultaneously paring his rate of free passes issued by a considerable amount. While it could be dangerous to just assume that he will continue to perform more toward the July-September spectrum than the mundane April-June stretch, there are differences in Niemann’s plate discipline numbers that could help explain his excellent run of starts.

During April of 2009, Niemann pitched tentatively. He didn’t locate many offerings within the strike zone, often getting behind in the count with low first-pitch strike percentages. In May and June, Niemann continued to fall behind the batter often. Perhaps in an attempt to compensate, Niemann lobbed more pitches over the plate after the batter got the advantage. This led to plenty of contact against him:

April: 45.9 First-Pitch Strike%, 89.6 Z-Contact%
May: 53.5 F-Strike%, 94 Z-Contact%
June: 54.8 F-Strike%, 92.9 Z-Contact%

(MLB averages are 58.2 for F-Strike% and 87.8 for Z-Contact%)

Since July, though, Niemann is forcefully taking control of the count. His first-pitch strike percentage has soared, and opposing batters aren’t touching quite as many of his pitches within the strike zone:

July: 65 F-Strike%, 88.6 Z-Contact%
August: 64.2 F-Strike%, 88.9 Z-Contact%
September: 66.1 F-Strike%, 91 Z-Contact%

So, what has changed? Niemann has not budged from his fastball-centric approach:

Pct. of fastballs thrown

April: 73%
May: 71.5%
June: 73.9%
July: 72.4%
August: 76%
September: 72.2%

He has tossed the pitch over 73% of the time in 2009, with positive results (+0.87 runs/100 pitches thrown). Niemann does not mix in very many breaking pitches, but he has increasingly relied upon his mid-70’s curveball as opposed to a slurvy low-80’s slider since July. That’s a positive change, considering the curve has been worth +0.50 runs/100 pitches thrown during his big league career, while the slider (-1.17) has been slaughtered.

Niemann appears to be a much more polished hurler than the guy chucking fastballs in the general vicinity of home plate back in the spring. He is locating his above-average heater much better, leaping ahead in the count and putting hitters in his clutches (getting ahead of the batter, obviously, pays huge dividends). Niemann has also put an ineffective slurve on the backburner, instead choosing to throw a solid mid-70’s curve with plenty of downward movement. The former Rice star went back to the drawing board, evolving into a more efficient, dominant starter.

Stock Up

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

This past winter, I took a rather skeptical stance regarding Floyd’s “breakout” in 2008:

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

Floyd’s ERA in 2009 (3.84) is an exact match for his 2008 work. However, there’s every reason to believe that it is legitimate this time around. In 185 IP, Gavin has whiffed 7.78 batters per nine innings, with 2.72 BB/9. His ’09 Fielding Independent ERA (3.77) is a full run lower than in 2008.

The 26 year-old righty’s fastball has never been an especially effective pitch (-0.91 runs/100 pitches during his career), and he seems to have adapted by throwing fewer and fewer heaters as the years go by. Floyd chucked a fastball 61 percent of the time in 2007, 54.7% in ’08 and just 48% in 2009.

In its place, the former Phillies prospect is relying more upon a cut fastball and a slider (the pitch data on Floyd’s page lumps them together, but his Pitch F/X data shows them as two distinct offerings). Couple that nasty pitch with a typically strong 80 MPH curveball (+2.75 runs/100) and a nice changeup (+1.15), and you have an awfully strong 2009 campaign. Normally susceptible to lefties (.279/.360/.518 from 2006-2008), Floyd and his new pitching strategy have subdued southpaws for a .227/.289/.378 line in 2009.

Pedro Martinez, Phillies

Pedro’s incredible career reached its nadir in Queens last season. He appeared to be breaking down physically, though his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) of 4.61 was a full run lower than his 5.61 ERA. He looked as though he could be moderately useful at the back of someone’s rotation, but that was under the assumption that his shoulder or some other body part wouldn’t spontaneously combust.

After sitting out the first half of the 2009 campaign, Martinez inked a deal with the Phillies in July. Following a few minor league tune-ups, Pedro is giving big league hitters fits. During his first 23 frames, the wily 37 year-old Dominican Republic native has posted a 23/3 K/BB ratio.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can maintain the increase, but Martinez’s fastball velocity (88.6 MPH) is his highest since his last year with the Red Sox in 2004. Pedro’s pounding the strike zone (56 Zone%, 49% MLB avg.), getting ahead of batters (65.6 first-pitch strike%, 59% MLB avg.), and he’s getting outside swings when he lays one off the plate or in the dirt (29.9 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg). Is there a more enjoyable pitcher to watch than Pedro? I think not.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Coors or no, Smith’s slugging exploits in 2009 (.317/.406/.572, 15 HR and a .419 wOBA in 315 PA) are impressive. The University of Mississippi product mashed in the minors and performed decently with the Rockies in 2008 (.349 wOBA in 123 PA), but it would have been difficult for anyone to see this coming. With +20.2 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value), Smith trails only Todd Helton among Colorado batters.

While no one should expect Smith to keep on eviscerating the ball like Pujols, he combines a very keen batting eye (13.1% walk rate, 20.2 O-Swing%) with plenty of pop. Smith’s rest-of-season projection pegs him for a .297/.366/.484 line. Even if that’s “all” he delivers, that’s very useful. Of course, finding consistent playing time in Colorado’s crowded outfield could be problematic. But if he keeps on lacing everything he sees into the gap or over the fence, he’ll find enough AB’s. Smith isn’t this good. But as a patient lefty batter with a quality minor league track record and little fanfare, he reminds me of a poor man’s Brian Giles.

Tim Hudson, Braves

Pedro isn’t the only prominent name returning to the hill as the 2009 season wraps up. Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but he has looked rather sharp in his first two starts this season. The mended 34 year-old has posted an 11/4 K/BB ratio, allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP. Huddy’s still got his deep mix of pitches: the sinker, cutter, curve and splitter are all present.

Will Atlanta pick up Hudson’s $12M option for 2010? There’s a $1M buyout, so the Braves have to decide if they think he’s worth $11M. For Hudson to be “worth” the dough, he would have to post about 2.4 Wins Above Replacement ($11M, divided by the $4.5M per WAR that teams pay on the free agent market). It’s possible if he’s healthy, though Atlanta’s other financial commitments in the rotation (as Erik Manning notes in the linked post, Lowe is due $15M, Vazquez $11.5M and Kawakami roughly $7M) could play a part in the decision-making process.

Jake Fox, Cubs

With Alfonso Soriano’s knee injury possibly requiring arthroscopic surgery, Fox figures to keep getting penciled into the lineup.

Fox, of course, went Coo-Coo for Cocoa Puffs in the International League, and he has batted .282/.328/.520 in 198 big league PA for the Cubs. Fox obviously possesses scores of power (career .235 ISO in the minors), but he’s also a hacker of the highest degree (5.9 BB%, 37.1 O-Swing%). The 6-0, 210 pound Fox might take a page out of the Adam Dunn playbook defensively, but he could be useful to power-starved owners looking for an offensive jolt.

Stock Down

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto pieced together a superb rookie season in 2008 (.371 wOBA), but his 2009 campaign has been defined by shoulder and oblique injuries, as well an anemic offensive showing (.310 wOBA). The 26 year-old Soto is in Lou Pinella’s dog house, with Koyie Hill stealing more AB’s.

Despite the rapid downturn in his numbers, there are reasons to believe that Soto circa 2008 and this year’s version are largely the same. His walk rate his up (11.2 BB% to 13.4%), his K rate is down (24.5% to 23.2%), he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (20.1% in ’08, 18.1% in ’09), and his contact rate has increased (74.7% to 77.6%). Soto’s ISO is down (.219 to .162), but it wasn’t reasonable to expect a .200+ ISO from him again, and a .162 ISO is still excellent for a backstop. Geo still has the skills to be a big asset, if the Cubs are willing to play him.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Huh? Snell has won four straight starts for the Mariners. Surely he’s pitching like a stud, right? Well, not really. During that winning streak, the banished Bucco has only surrendered 7 runs in 21.2 frames. But he has done so despite actually walking more batters (11) than he struck out (10). Snell looked to be a long-terms asset for Pittsburgh following a 2007 season in which he posted rates of 7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9, with a 4.01 FIP in 208 IP. The former 26th-round pick out of Delaware inked a three-year, $8.6M extension with the team in March of 2008, with club options for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Since then, however, Snell has been on a downward slope. He kept the K’s but lost the strike zone in 2008 (7.39 K/9, 4.87 BB/9), and his peripherals are looking Daniel Cabrera-esque in 2009 (5.52 K/9, 5.21 BB/9). Sensing Snell’s wildness, opposing batters have gradually swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (from 28.2% in ’07 to 21% in ’09; 25% MLB average). Consequently, his first-pitch strike percentage has plummeted from 63.7% during his banner 2007 to 52.1% in 2009 (59% MLB average). That’s the lowest rate among all starters tossing at least 100 innings.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Despite holding an ERA (3.77) that’s 1.3 runs lower than his 2008 mark (5.07), Millwood is not really pitching any better. In fact, one could make the case that his 2008 season was actually stronger.

Millwood’s K/BB ratio was 2.55 in ’08, but it’s just 1.62 in ’09. His FIP in 2008 was 4.02, yet it’s 4.89 this season. The difference? A massive change in BABIP, from .366 in ’08 to .279 in ’09. Texas’ dramatic improvement with the leather has surely played a part (28th in team UZR in 2008, 6th in 2009), but Millwood has also been pretty darned fortunate. Millwood’s tight rope act appears to be running thread-bare, however. Since the All-Star break, he has given up 22 runs in 42 frames, with a mediocre 1.24 K/BB.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Sizemore’s 2009 season is over, as Cleveland’s cornerstone player undergoes a pair of surgeries to fix a balky elbow and an “instability of the abdominal wall.” Sizemore has turned in an ’09 campaign that most would characterize as disappointing (.343 wOBA, .248/.343/.445 line in 503 PA), but his core skills are still very much intact.

Grady walked 12.1% of the time, punching out 21.1% and posting a near-.200 ISO (.197). According to this Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Sizemore was pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was just .276, yet his XBABIP (which uses HR, SB, groundballs, fly balls and pop ups in addition to line drive rate) was .309.

Even if we assume that all of Grady’s extra hits would be singles, his line “should” be closer to .281/.376/.478. That’s a typical Sizemore season (his career line is .275/.367/.485). About the only facet of Grady’s game that was truly off was his base stealing (13 SB, 8 CS). Don’t be scared off by his “down” 2009 season. Sizemore is still the same championship-caliber player he has always been, and he could be quite the bargain on draft day next year.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton’s first season in Texas was excellent (.385 wOBA), but 2009 has been marred by injuries and an impatient approach at the dish. Battling rib, groin, abdominal and back maladies, Hamilton has batted just .270/.318/.426 in 355 PA, with a .322 wOBA. Adjusting for his home ballpark, the 28 year-old has been below-average with the stick (-3.5 Batting Runs).

Hamilton’s walk rate has dipped from 9.3% in 2008 to 6.9% in ’09, with a 35.7 O-Swing%. He’s still crushing fastballs (+1.48 runs/100 pitches seen), but breaking stuff (-1.14 for the slider, -2.12 for the curve) and changeups (-2.53) are giving Hamilton nightmares. Perhaps noting Hamilton’s tendency to expand his zone, opposing pitchers have placed just 43.3% of their pitches within the zone against him (49% MLB avg). Josh is currently sidelined with a pinched nerve in his back.