As he leaped from rookie ball to the big leagues in a few short seasons, right-hander Trevor Cahill had little problem making opposing hitters whiff.

A California prep product taken in the 2nd round of the 2006 amateur draft, Cahill dominated the competition in A-Ball and Double-A. In 105.1 frames in the Low-A Midwest League in 2007, the 6-3 hurler punched out ten batters per nine innings with 3.42 BB/9. Cahill then took on the High-A California League and AA Texas League in 2008. His combined line? 124.1 IP, 9.8 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.

Sure, Cahill’s command sometimes abandoned him. But he drew as much praise as any pitching prospect in the game. And why not? In addition to all of those K’s, Cahill was a groundball machine. He burned worms at a 56.4% clip in 2007 and kept the ball on the ground 61.5% of the time in 2008. Generally, strikeouts and groundballs have an inverse relationship: one comes at the expense of the other. It’s rare to find a young pitcher so adept at making batters whiff or chop the ball into the dirt when they do manage to make contact.

Heading into the 2009 season, Baseball America ranked Cahill as the second-best prospect in the Oakland A’s system (Brett Anderson was first). BA complemented Cahill’s two-seam fastball “with outstanding sink and running life, enabling him to rack up both grounders and swinging strikes.” But that was just the tip of the iceberg as far as his repertoire was concerned: Cahill also came equipped with a “nasty 79-81 MPH knuckle curve,” a low-80’s slider and a developing changeup.

Cahill figured to open the ’09 campaign at AAA Sacramento. Instead, the A’s jumped the 21 year-old up to the majors. While his minor league tag-team partner Anderson made a seamless transition (3.61 xFIP in 175.1 IP), Cahill just tried to keep his head above water.

In 178.2 innings pitched, Cahill compiled a 4.92 xFIP. While he racked up the whiffs in the minors, he K’d just 4.53 batters per nine frames, while issuing 3.63 BB/9. Cahill’s punch out rate was 8th-lowest among starters tossing at least 150 frames. He displayed slight groundball tendencies (47.8 GB%), but he didn’t wage a ground assault on hitters, either.

While scouts loved Cahill’s expansive collection of pitches, the young righty nearly abandoned his breaking stuff during his rookie year. Cahill threw both his fastball and sinker around 30 percent of the time, while showing hitters his changeup about 29 percent. That low-80’s slider appeared just under seven percent of the time, with the spike curve all but forgotten (less than 4 percent of his pitches).

Cahill’s pair of fastballs weren’t especially effective, with a run value of -0.79 per 100 pitches. He pulled the string more efficiently (+0.67). But when Cahill did try to break off a slider or curveball, he often missed the mark (-1.21 for the slider, -1.54 for the curve).

Trevor’s often fell behind in the count. His first-pitch strike percentage was only 54.2%, well below the 58.2% MLB average. Finding himself in hitter’s counts so frequently might have discouraged Cahill from going to his breaking stuff. With a fastball-changeup approach, his overall contact rate was 82.1% (80.5% MLB average).

Left-handers gave Cahill some problems in the minors (his walk rate ballooned to 4.83 per nine innings vs. lefties), though nothing especially alarming. But southpaw batters battered Cahill in his introduction to the big leagues.

Baseball-Reference offers a handy stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. 100 is average. For pitchers, a mark below 100 is above-average, while a figure above 100 indicates the pitcher fared worse than the league average.

With his fastball and sinker tailing in on righties, Cahill held same-handed hitters to a 91 sOPS+ (nine percent better than the league average). But lefties? They throttled him for a 134 sOPS+.

Right-handers struggled to get their arms extended with so many pitches coming down and in. But southpaws rarely saw a pitch on the inside half of the plate:

Cahill vs. LHB, courtesy of Trip Somers’ Texas Leaguers blog:

See all that white area on the inside corner? Lefties rarely had to contend with anything in on the hands. They didn’t whiff much against Cahill:

Cahill vs. LHB (data from Baseball-Reference)
Strikeout/PA%: 11.4%
AL Avg. for RHP vs. LHB: 17.5%

Cahill didn’t exactly cause many righties to come up empty either (12 K/PA%, compared to the 17.9% AL average for RHP vs. RHB). But he did at least get same-side batters to hit the ball on the ground often. Lefties? Not as much.

Cahill vs. RHB: 52.6 GB%
Cahill vs. LHB: 45.3 GB%

(Data from Baseball Prospectus)

Trevor Cahill didn’t exactly burst onto the scene in 2009, but he really shouldn’t have been expected to do so. He had little experience above A-Ball prior to this past season, and he did manage to avoid getting embarrassed in the majors at an age where most guys are toiling in the lower levels of the minors or gearing up for their junior season in college.

In order for Cahill to live up to his promise, he’s going to have to dust off his breaking pitches and keep lefties from getting so comfortable in the batter’s box. He has a lot of work to do, but don’t get too discouraged. Cahill will only be 22 years old in 2010. There’s plenty of time for him to rediscover his whiff-inducing ways.

The Angels have found Vladimir Guerrero’s replacement at DH. The Halos have reportedly come to terms with Hideki Matsui on a one-year, $6.5M deal, pending a physical.

The 35 year-old lefty batter had a strong bounce back year at the plate in 2009. Matsui’s troublesome left knee caused him to miss a big chunk of the 2008 season, as he took just 378 trips to the plate. Godzilla didn’t strike much fear into opposing pitchers in ’08, posting a .348 wOBA and a .131 Isolated Power that were well below his established level of play.

But this past year, Matsui mashed to the tune of a .378 wOBA and a career-best .235 ISO in 528 plate appearances. Adjusting his wOBA for his home ballpark and league, Matsui’s wOBA was 33 percent better than the big league average.

With a busted wheel, Matsui posted a 1.36 ground ball/fly ball ratio in 2008. That was his highest rate of grounders to fly balls since his “rookie” campaign in the states in 2003. Matsui had a mild 9 HR/FB%. In 2009, Matsui lofted the ball more (0.90 GB/FB ratio), and popped a home run on 17.4% of his fly balls hit.

Matsui is a dead pull hitter. New Yankee Stadium wasn’t an offensive paradise in its first year in existence (the stadium depressed offense by 3-4% compared to a neutral ball park), but it certainly did have its fair share of big flies (1.26 HR park factor).

For what it’s worth (perhaps not much, considering we’re talking about one-year park factors and one-year home/away splits), Matsui actually hit better on the road in ’09. His OPS was 57 percent better than the league average away from Yankee Stadium and an OPS 12 percent better than average at home.

Matsui turned in an excellent offensive season in 2009, but it’s not a good idea to just expect a repeat performance next year. Here are Hideki’s 2010 projections:

CHONE: .262/.348/.432, .341 wOBA
ZiPS: .277/.360/.464, .359 wOBA
Bill James: .282/.367/.475, .366 wOBA
Fans: .283/.370/.482, .370 wOBA

Keep in mind that the expected level of offense in baseball for the 2010 season influences these projections. In other words, Bill James might project a higher line for Matsui, but the Bill James system generally projects a higher run-scoring environment overall. Matsui’s Bill James line might look more impressive relative to the other systems, but the baseline for what constitutes league average offense is greater as well.

The logical general consensus, though, is that Matsui will regress in 2010 but remain an above-average batter.

Don’t draft Matsui expecting a repeat performance of his gargantuan 2009 season. But he could still be a quality contributor in 2010.

According to MLB.com’s Ian Browne and Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman, free agent RHP John Lackey has signed a five-year, $85 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.

The 31 year-old has been remarkably consistent, posting xFIP marks of 3.99 in 2007, 3.88 in 2008 and 3.92 in 2009. Lackey has punched out 7.2 batters per nine innings during his big league career, while also displaying plus control with 2.64 BB/9.

Lackey comes at batters with a 90-92 MPH fastball, a low-80’s slider, a high-70’s curveball and a seldom-used low-80’s changeup. His heater is a decent pitch (+0.19 during his career). But his breaking stuff shines. The 6-6, 245 pound righty’s slider has been worth +0.29 runs per 100 tosses, while his curve checks in at +1.03. Lackey’s reluctance to pull the string seems well-grounded (-1.3 runs/100 for the changeup).

Big John’s recent opponent contact rates are middle-of-the-pack (80-81 percent, right around the league average), and his 8.55 swinging strike percentage over the past three seasons is above-average, but not elite (the average for starters is 7.8 percent).

Lackey’s contact rates have been trending upward lately, too:

In-Zone Contact%
2005: 86.3
2006: 88.9
2007: 90.6
2008: 91.3
2009: 91.3

(87-88% MLB average)

Overall Contact%
2005: 76.5
2006: 79.4
2007: 80.3
2008: 81.5
2009: 80.4

Because of the extra contact, it would be wise to expect a few less punch outs in the years to come.

Where Lackey really shines is getting ahead of the hitter: his first-pitch strike percentage from 2007-2009 is 64.5%, which ranks 5th among starters during that time period. He’s adept at putting the hitter in an 0-1 hole, but then he tends to rely on the batter’s impatience. Lackey’s overall percentage of pitches within the strike zone is just 46.5% since 2007, compared to the 49-51% MLB average. Hitters are chasing a lot of those out-of-zone offerings, though: Lackey’s outside-swing percentage from 2007-2009 is 29.7%. That ranks 6th among starters over that period.

Lackey averaged nearly 211 innings pitched per season from 2003-2007, but he has experienced some health issues over the past two years. He hit the DL with a triceps strain in 2008, delaying the start of his season until mid-May and limiting him to 163.1 IP. In 2009, Lackey suffered a right forearm strain that also kept him from toeing the rubber until the middle of May. He tossed 176.1 frames this past season.

The move from Angel Stadium to Fenway Park will likely hurt Lackey’s numbers a bit:

Three-year park factors for Angel Stadium and Fenway (data courtesy of ESPN.com)

Angel Stadium
Runs:1.04
HR: 1.01
H: 1.03
2B: 1.06
3B: 0.72

Fenway Park
Runs: 1.11
HR: 0.90
H: 1.06
2B: 1.44
3B: 0.87

Angel Stadium has played like a slight hitter’s park over the past few years, increasing run scoring by four percent. Fenway, meanwhile, has inflated run scoring by 11 percent compared to a neutral ball park. Homers are hard to come by for righties, but the Green Monster is a doubles-making machine.

If the terms of the deal are correct, then the Red Sox are valuing Lackey as something like a four WAR per season pitcher moving forward. It’s a mark he easily surpassed from 2005-2007, and basically matched in 2009. But there are certainly risks inherent in handing out a five-year deal to a guy who hasn’t been healthy enough to throw a pitch in April in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps the biggest mistake teams make is handing out free agent deals based on past performance.

Overall, Lackey’s contract seems like a gamble by Boston. But given the club’s deep coffers and position on the win curve, it’s defensible. As Dave Cameron explained, each additional win added to a team on the cusp of the playoffs is extremely valuable. The Rays have an absurd collection of young talent and a canny front office. The Yankees are coming off a World Series win. A.L. East baseball is not for the faint of heart.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate to draft Lackey relatively high entering next season. Luckily, you only have to worry about how he’ll perform in 2010, not 2014. His value takes a slight ding with the move to Fenway, and his health problems are mildly disconcerting. But Lackey still looks like a top 30-40 starter for 2010.

After examining some of the interesting hitters non-tendered, let’s now turn our focus toward the hurlers let go by teams on Saturday. I only included CHONE projections for a select few, as many of these pitchers are still on the rehab trail.

Jose Arredondo

Arredondo was a revelation out of the Angels bullpen in 2008 (8.11 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 3.62 xFIP), but he endured a nightmarish 2009 campaign and is now set to undergo Tommy John surgery. The small righty with big stuff wasn’t nearly as bad in 2009 as his 6.00 ERA would indicate, as his BABIP was .339 and his strand rate was just 64.9%. Arredondo’s xFIP was 4.03. He missed more bats (9.4 K/9), but his control suffered (4.6 BB/9). Jose also whiffed a bunch of batters (10.5 K/9) and walked the yard (6.1 BB/9) in 20.2 innings at AAA.

Matt Capps (56 IP, 6.91 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9)

Capps was something of a surprise non-tender, but his reputation might surpass his actual contribution at this point. To be sure, he’s nowhere near as bad as his 5.80 ERA in 2009 would suggest: his BABIP was a stunning .370. Capps has excellent control (career 1.66 BB/9), but he doesn’t whiff many batters for a late-game reliever (6.89 K/9). An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 36 GB%), Capps benefitted from abnormally low home run/fly ball rates in 2007 (4.4%) and 2008 (6.8%). In ’09, that figure regressed to 13.5%. Check out Capps’ ERA and xFIP numbers from 2007 to 2009:

2007: 2.28 ERA, 4.31 xFIP
2008: 3.02 ERA, 3.95 xFIP
2009: 5.80 ERA, 4.37 xFIP

Add in Capps’ recent health problems (DL stints for a shoulder injury in ’08 and an elbow malady in ’09), and the non-tender begins to make more sense.

Mike MacDougal (55 IP, 6.71 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9)

The Nationals wisely let the control-challenged, injury-prone MacDougal walk, rather than going to arbitration with a guy whose surface stats (20 saves in 21 chances, 4.31 ERA) far exceeded his peripherals (5.63 K/9, 6.29 BB/9, 4.99 xFIP). MacDougal was as wild as ever in 2009, and his stuff missed few bats. The 32 year-old righty decided to chuck mid-90’s heater after mid-90’s heater (Mac tossed his fastball almost 90% of the time in 2009). Subsequently, his contact rate spiked to 83.9%, compared to a career 78.2% average.

Adam Miller

Sigh. The electric right-hander was once the pride of the Indians organization, and for good reason. His mid-90’s heat and sinister slider fooled plenty of batters in the minors. But injuries have ruined Miller’s career. Elbow problems slowed him a few years ago, and a pair of surgeries on his right middle finger could possibly end his career before it even got started.

(Update: Miller and Reyes have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Scott Olsen

Have you seen Olsen’s career? In 2006, the lefty looked like one of the more valuable commodities in the N.L. At 22 years old, Olsen posted a 4.07 xFIP in 180.2 IP, whiffing 8.27 hitters per nine innings and displaying an excellent slider and changeup.

After a mediocre 2007 season (4.95 xFIP), Olsen’s velocity fell off a cliff in 2008. So did his ability to make hitters miss: 8.27 K/9 in ’06, 6.78 in ’07, and just 5.04 per nine in ’08. A trade to the Nationals did little to revive his velocity and career, and Olsen underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July. Perhaps Washington will bring the soon-to-be 26 year-old back at a lower cost, but his stock has plummeted.

Anthony Reyes

The former Cardinals prospect has a fantastic minor league track record. However, Reyes likes to work up in the zone with his high-80’s-low-90’s fastball. That has led to a ton of fly balls (35.9 GB%) and dingers (1.35 HR/9) in the big leagues. His career line in the majors: 5.05 xFIP, 6.29 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9 in 293.1 frames.

Reyes’ career has also been marred by elbow ailments, and he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June after an abysmal performance with the Indians. The 28 year-old has a pair of decent secondary pitches in a mid-70’s curveball (+0.13 runs/100 career) and a mid-70’s changeup (+0.32 runs/100). He’s going to have to learn to keep that heater down, though, lest it continue to get scorched (-0.52 runs/100).

(Update: Reyes and Miller have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Chien-Ming Wang (103 IP, 5.42 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9)

Which sinkerballer’s career has imploded more: Wang’s or Fausto Carmona’s?

Wang (30 in March) had a mind-bending 9.64 ERA in 42 frames this past season: a .397 BABIP and a 53.1% strand rate will do that. He was the most groundball-centric pitcher in the big leagues earlier in his career, getting worm-burners over 60% of the time from 2007-2009. But during injury-plagued 2008 and 2009 campaigns (season-ending Lisfranc problem in ’08, a hip ailment and a shoulder injury requiring season-ending surgery in ’09), Wang’s groundball rate fell to around 53-54%.

He’s still recovering from that June shoulder surgery, and he isn’t expected to take a big league mound until late spring or early summer. If Wang can get healthy, he and his 4.22 career xFIP could still be of use to clubs.

Mark Worrell

A righty reliever with a wacky delivery, Worrell was acquired by the Padres (along with Luke Gregerson) in last winter’s Khalil Greene trade.

While Gregerson was extremely effective out of the ‘pen for San Diego, Worrell underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the ’09 season. Worrell has missed a ton of bats in the minors. He could re-sign with the Padres as he continues his rehab.

Saturday was the deadline for clubs to offer a contract to arbitration-eligible players. There were plenty of non-tenders yesterday. Let’s take a quick look at some of the more intriguing position players now hitting the open market. I included each player’s CHONE projection for the 2010 season.

Garrett Atkins (.275/.345/.440, .342 wOBA)

This 30 year-old righty batter has been billed in the past as a power-hitting third baseman. But when one considers his substandard D at the hot corner (career -5 UZR/150 at 3B) and adjusts for the context of Coors, Atkins isn’t all he’s cracked up to be:

Atkins’ Park Adjusted Batting Runs, by season:

2005: -2.1
2006: +38.5
2007: +13.1
2008: -2.6
2009: -16.3

Atkins isn’t the cipher that his 2009 numbers would suggest, as he suffered from a .247 BABIP. But his Isolated Power has dipped four years running: .228 in 2006, .185 in 2007, .165 in 2008, and just .116 in 2009.

John Buck (.223/.304/.399, .305 wOBA)

With the Jason Kendall era inexplicably beginning in Kansas City, Buck got the boot. The 29 year-old backstop has ample power for the position (career .171 ISO), though he struggles to make contact (26.1 K%). Buck posted a career-high .332 wOBA in 2009, but that figure is likely to regress next year. He posted a .309 BABIP in an ’09 season interrupted by a back injury, compared to a .283 career mark. As a slow-footed catcher (career 2.5 Speed Score) who pops the ball up a lot (12.2 IF/FB%), expect Buck to hit more around his career .304 wOBA.

(Update: Buck inked a 1-year, $2M deal with the Blue Jays.)

Ryan Church (.267/.339/.419, .332 wOBA)

Bothered by back problems and a pulled hamstring, Church didn’t hit with much authority in 2009 (.111 ISO). Injuries have plagued the 31 year-old the past two seasons, as post-concussion syndrome slowed him in 2008. But when he’s able to take the field, Church is a fairly useful player. He’s a career .272/.345/.441 hitter, displaying a decent eye (9.3 BB%) and average power for his position (.169 ISO). The former Expo, National, Met and Brave has done most of his damage against righty batters.

Jack Cust (.229/.365/.426, .349 wOBA)

Cust revived his career in Oakland, as he walked nearly 20% of the time and posted a near-.250 ISO over the 2007 and 2008 seasons. The Three True Outcomes hero appeared to make a concerted effort to make more contact in 2009. His outside-swing percentage increased from roughly 14% in ’07-’08 to 17.5% (still well below the 25% MLB average), and his in-zone swing percentage climbed from 62% to 68% (65-66% MLB average). The result? Fewer K’s (relatively speaking: 36.1 K% in ’09, 39.5% career mark), and walks (15.3 BB% in ’09), as well as less pop (.177 ISO).

Ryan Garko (.273/.352/.444, .347 wOBA)

29 in January, Garko is a good, not great hitter at a position where players are supposed to mash. The average MLB first baseman swatted .277/.362/.483 in 2009 (.366 wOBA).

The former Indian has performed much better vs. southpaws during the course of his big league career. Here are Garko’s sOPS+ numbers against lefties and righties since 2007. sOPS+ compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, better than 100 indicates the hitter was above-average, less than 100 means he was below-average)

2007
vs. RHP: 123 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 128 sOPS+

2008
vs. RHP: 99 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 121 sOPS+

2009
vs. RHP: 97 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 126 sOPS+

Jonny Gomes (.247/.333/.487, .351 wOBA)

The archetypal slugger, Gomes bops (career .230 ISO) and plays defense like a guy wearing cinder blocks instead of cleats (-22.3 UZR/150 in the outfield). As such, his game might be more palatable to an A.L. club. In a fantastic environment for a pull-oriented righty, Gomes compiled a .373 wOBA for the Reds in 2009.

Kelly Johnson (.268/.346/.436, .341 wOBA)

Let’s compare Johnson’s 2008 and 2009 seasons:

2008: 8.7 BB%, 20.7 K%, .159 ISO, .344 BABIP, .346 wOBA
2009: 9.6 BB%, 17.8 K%, .165 ISO, .249 BABIP, .306 wOBA

The lefty batter (28 in February) walked a little more this past season, punched out less, and hit for a similar amount of power. Johnson’s BABIP, however, dipped nearly 100 points. Kelly’s XBABIP was .329 in 2008 and .313 in 2009. Here are what Johnson’s lines would have looked like in ’08 and ’09, based on his XBABIP figures (and this is assuming all additional hits were singles):

2008 actual line: .287/.349/.446, .346 wOBA
2008 adjusted line: .272/.334/.431, .333 wOBA

2009 actual line: .224/.303/.389, .306 wOBA
2009 adjusted line: .288/.367/.453, .359 wOBA

Johnson is no great shakes at second base (career -7.4 UZR/150), but he can also man the outfield corners and looks to be a strong candidate to bounce back in 2010. He’s still a quality offensive player.

When I think of relief pitchers, this Neil Young lyric pops into my head:

It’s better to burn out
Than to fade away
My my, hey hey.

The reign of a top bullpen arm can be transient. One minute, a guy is on top of the world, entering the game to a heavy metal tune and a boisterous crowd reception worthy of a heavyweight champion. The next, he’s posting a 4.65 ERA with the Quebec Capitales (Qu’est-ce qui se passe, Eric Gagne?)

J.J. Putz can well understand. The 6-5 righty was a run-of-the-mill middle reliever with the Mariners in 2004 and 2005. Then, he found an extra gear on his fastball, added a splitter and became a monster out of the M’s pen. Now, after two lost seasons, Putz has inked a one-year, $3M deal with the White Sox with $3.25M in incentives.

Putz posted nearly six wins above replacement between 2006 and 2007, with rates of 11.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. His mid-90’s fastball posted run values of +2.06 per 100 pitches in ’06 and +2.58 in ’07, with his splitter and slider also causing hitters to walk back to the dugout mumbling to themselves. J.J. had 2.11 xFIP in 2006 and a 2.82 mark in 2007.

Unfortunately, Putz’s time as a bullpen rock star ended there. His 2008 season was marred by ribcage and elbow maladies, limiting him to 46.1 IP. Putz still whiffed plenty of batters (10.88 K/9), but his control deserted him (5.44 BB/9). He pounded the strike zone during his glory days (54 InZone% in 2006 and 2007), but J.J. put just 47.5% of his pitches over the plate in ’08 (the MLB average has been around 50-52% over the past three seasons).

Following the season, Seattle swapped Putz to the Mets as part of a three-team, 12-player deal. Rather than re-establishing his value as K-Rod’s set-up man, Putz threw just 29.1 frames before succumbing to surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

He was a shell of his former self in 2009, walking as many batters as he punched out (5.83 K/9 and 5.83 BB/9). Putz’s fastball was down a couple of ticks, and the pitch was plastered (-1.63 runs/100). His contact rate soared, sitting at 82.7% compared to a 76% career average. With Putz a mess on the mound, opposing hitters were content to lay off his stuff (17.9 outside-swing percentage in ’09, compared to about 25% in 2007 and 2008).

Looking at Putz’s Pitch F/X data, there’s an interesting trend in the vertical movement on his splitter. Pitch F/X splits Putz’s off-speed stuff into changeups and splitters, classifying most of them as changeups. I’m going to lump them together here, and call them all splitters. Take a look at the difference in the vertical movement in Putz’s fastball and splitter over the past three years:

Vertical movement on Putz’s fastball and splitter, 2007-2009
2007
Fastball: 10.9 Z
Splitter: 6.4 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 4.5 inches

2008
Fastball: 9.9 Z
Splitter: 4.1 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 5.8 inches

2009
Fastball: 9.8 Z
Splitter: 2.7 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 7.1 inches

There’s now a pronounced difference in vertical movement between Putz’s fastball and splitter. Perhaps there’s a point of diminishing returns with the separation between those two pitches: if there’s too much of a difference, hitters will be able to distinguish between the fastball and splitter and simply lay off those tumbling off-speed pitches they once flailed at.

On the south side, Putz is no better than third in line for save chances, behind incumbent Bobby Jenks (3.63 xFIP in 2009) and set-up man Matt Thornton (2.79 xFIP). Hey, it still beats the Can Am League.

For the Baltimore Orioles, the Erik Bedard trade is the gift that keeps on giving.

In February of 2008, the O’s swapped their talented-but-brittle ace to the Mariners for Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, Kam Mickolio and Adam Jones.

Tillman will team up with 2008 first-rounder Brian Matusz to give Baltimore a deadly one-two punch at the top of the rotation. Sherrill was shipped to the Dodgers last summer for third baseman of the future Joshua Bell.

Those elements alone would make the Bedard deal one of the great heists in recent memory. But the O’s also snagged one of the most talented young outfielders in the game in Jones.

A supplemental first-round pick in the 2003 amateur draft, Jones was pushed aggressively through the Mariners’ farm system. He reached Double-A by the age of 19, and got his first taste of big league action as a 20 year-old in 2006.

Jones was a shortstop until ’06, but the 6-2, 210 pounder outgrew the position.
Despite being several years younger than his peers and juggling a position switch, Jones faired remarkably well in the minors. He batted a combined .301/.364/.538 at the AAA level in 2006 and 2007, posting a whopping .237 ISO.

Jones’ plate discipline needed some work (he walked in 7.2% of his plate appearances in AAA), and he understandably scuffled in limited playing time with the M’s over those two seasons (.241 wOBA in ’06, .306 in ’07). But it’s hard to find fault with a precocious, up-the-middle prospect beating the snot out of the baseball.

Following the big trade, the Orioles committed to giving Jones the starting gig in center field. In his first full season in the majors in 2008, the righty batter posted a .270/.311/.400 line and a .313 wOBA in 514 PA. This past year, he raised his triple-slash to .277/.335/.457 in 519 PA (.343 wOBA). Jones’ bat went from being worth -7 Park Adjusted Batting Runs in ’08 to +6.1 in ’09. What changed, and what does it mean for his future?

Jones’ walk rate increased from 4.6 percent in 2008 to 7.1 in 2009, while his whiff rate dropped from 22.6 percent to 19.7 percent. The first inclination is to assume that the 24 year-old did a better job of laying off pitches out of the zone while making more contact.

However, that wasn’t really the case. Jones’ outside-swing percentage did indeed fall, but only from 36.2 percent in ’08 to 35.3 percent in ’09 (the major league average is about 25 percent). His contact rate actually decreased, from 76.9 percent to 74.6 percent (80-81 percent MLB average). So, how did he draw more walks and punch out less often?

Opposing pitchers appeared to tread more cautiously when Jones was at the dish in 2009. In ’08, 52.7 percent of the pitches tossed his way were within the strike zone (the MLB average was 51.1 percent that year). In 2009, pitchers gave Jones something over the plate just 48.4 percent of the time (49.3 percent MLB average). His first-pitch strike percentage fell from 66 percent to 57.8 percent (58 percent MLB average).

The reason for that extra care might have been Jones’ increased power output. His Isolated Power climbed from .130 in 2008 to .180 in 2009. Jones cranked 19 home runs this past season, compared to nine the previous year.

He was often tied up by quality fastballs during his rookie campaign, with a run value of -0.81 per 100 pitches vs. fastballs and a lofty 14.5 infield/fly ball rate. In his sophomore season, Jones was average vs. heaters (-0.09 runs/100 pitches) and didn’t pop the ball up near as much (5.6 infield/fly ball percentage).

Jones’ home run/fly ball rate spiked, from 6.9 percent to 17.8 percent. When he hit a fly ball, it did serious damage: Jones slugged .895 on fly balls in 2009, compared to the .603 A.L. average. Compare that to 2008, when he slugged .511 on fly balls (.566 A.L. average).

However, Jones hit far fewer fly balls overall:

His groundball rate soared from 46.8 percent in 2008 to 55.4 percent in ’09. Jones’ rate of grounders hit in ’09 eclipsed such power luminaries as Cristian Guzman, Nyjer Morgan and Emilio Bonifacio.

Despite not being a huge stolen base threat, Jones does possess quality speed. His career Speed Score is 6.2 (the MLB average is about five). That could help explain Jones’ career .256 batting average on ground balls, well above the .241 A.L. average over the past few seasons. So, Jones has the wheels to beat out more worm-burners than the average hitter. But hopefully he can learn to loft the ball more often, given his raw power.

Jones has experienced a few minor health problems, though nothing to really lose sleep over. He served a DL stint in 2008 after fracturing his left foot on a foul ball, and a sprained left ankle ended his 2009 season in early September. He’s already good to go, though.

Overall, Jones’ 2009 season was very promising. He learned to fight off big league fastballs, not getting jammed nearly as much as in his rookie season. Jones also hit the ball with more authority, which may have helped him get in more hitter’s counts. If he can hone his strike zone control and take full advantage of his strength, Jones could emerge as a full-fledged star in 2010.

According to MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel, the Royals have released arbitration-eligible DH/1B Mike Jacobs.

Ignoring Jacobs’ allergy to reaching base (career OBP: 313), inability to handle fellow lefties (.221/.269/.374 career vs. LHP) and iron glove (-9.0 UZR at first base), GM Dayton Moore acquired the 29 year-old from the Marlins last offseason for RHP Leo Nunez. Jacobs posted a .305 wOBA in 2009, which comes to -10.3 runs below average with the bat.

With Jacobs out of town, the Royals could look to Josh Fields or Kila Kaaihue to DH.

Fields, soon to be 27, was picked up along with Chris Getz earlier this offseason for Mark Teahen.

The 18th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Fields is a career .229/.302/.416 hitter in 746 major league PA. He posted a .336 wOBA and popped 23 HR with the White Sox back in 2007, but his career prospects have dimmed considerably since then.

Fields hit a mild .256/.341/.431 at AAA Charlotte in 2008 and .265/.357/.469 in 2009.

The former college QB has done a decent job of working the count in the majors, with a 9.3 percent walk rate and a 23.8 outside-swing percentage. Contact, however, has been hard to come by. Fields has whiffed 34 percent of the time, with a 71.1% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).

In the minors, the 6-2 righty batter showed a platoon split. Fields whapped lefty pitching for a .279/.386/.494 line, while hitting righties at a .266/.348/.443 rate.

In the big leagues, Fields has smacked southpaws for a .285/.356/.580 triple-slash, while laying an egg against same-handed hurlers (.206/.280/.348). It’s a good idea not to get too worked up about platoon splits based on a fairly small sample. But as a guy in his late twenties with limited defensive value, Fields is going to have to show more offensive force to remain relevant.

CHONE projects Fields to bat .247/.330/.407 in 2010 (.325 wOBA). ZiPS is even more pessimistic, throwing out a .237/.311/.394 line (.310 wOBA).

Ka’aihue, 25, always displayed a keen eye in the minors, but his performance was nondescript until 2008.

The Kila Monster batted a combined .314/.456/.628 between the AA Texas League and the AAA Pacific Coast League in ’08. The big lefty hitter walked an astounding 20.2 percent of the time, with a .314 ISO. Per Minor League Splits, Ka’aihue’s major league equivalent line was .243/.354/.442.

With Jacobs competing with the Guillens, Betancourts and Olivos of the world to see who could trot back to the dugout quickest, Kila spent 2009 back at AAA Omaha. While he was still exceptionally patient (18.8 BB%), Ka’aihue’s power output was disappointing (.181 ISO). Kila’s .252/.392/.433 showing with the O-Royals equated to just a .205/.316/.325 major league line.

It’s hard not to admire Ka’aihue’s zen-like patience at the plate. But first base/DH prospects, in their mid-twenties, with limited power, don’t translate especially well to the next level. CHONE tabs Kila for a .243/.355/.393 line in 2010 (.335 wOBA), while ZiPS envisions a .255/.350/.403 performance (.335 wOBA). Ka’aihue is pretty much the new Dan Johnson.

Of course, the Royals could go outside the organization to fill the DH spot. Or, they could shift Billy Butler back to the spot and pursue a first baseman. It’s also possible that the charred remains of Jose Guillen’s career could shift to DH full-time (sigh).

There’s no time like the present for both Fields and Ka’aihue. Each needs to produce in the here and now to avoid becoming intimately familiar with the AAA circuit.

Righty reliever Rafael Soriano, a Type A free agent fresh off a dominant 2009 season, caught the Atlanta Braves off guard when he accepted the club’s offer of arbitration.

Having already ponied up for Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito via free agency, Atlanta didn’t want to spend another $8M or so on the ‘pen.

According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, the Braves have swapped Soriano to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for right-hander Jesse Chavez.

In Tampa, Soriano becomes a prime candidate for ninth inning duty. His injury history is extensive: Soriano’s 2004, 2005 and 2008 seasons were wiped out by elbow surgeries. But in ’09, the soon-to-be 30 year-old turned in one of the better relief performances in the majors.

In 75.2 IP, Soriano punched out a career-high 12.13 hitters per nine innings, while issuing 3.21 BB/9. His K rate placed second among relievers, bested only by Jonathan Broxton’s 13.5 punch outs per nine frames. Soriano’s 2.99 Expected Fielding Independent ERA ranked 9th among ‘pen arms.

Soriano attacks hitters with a wicked low-90’s fastball/low-80’s slider combo. In 2009, Rafael’s heater was worth +1.42 runs per 100 pitches (his run value with the fastball since 2002 is +1.28 per 100 tosses). His slider baffled batters to the rune of +1.39 runs/100 (+1.54 since 2002).

The former Mariner doesn’t dawdle around on the mound: he goes right after the opposition. Soriano located 53.6% of his pitches within the strike zone in ’09, which ranked in the top 15 among relievers. His InZone percentage since 2002 is 54.2. Hitters struggled to do much with those pitches over the plate, as Soriano had the second-lowest percentage of in-zone contact among relievers (Oakland’s Andrew Bailey took home first place).

With the Rays, Soriano’s primary competition for save chances will be southpaw J.P. Howell.

From a scouting standpoint, Howell is the anti-Soriano. The former Royals starter cracks the mid-80’s with his fastball on a good day, and tossed the pitch less than half of the time in 2009.

Rather, Howell mixes in a bunch of low-80’s curveballs and high-70’s changeups. Both of those pitches were superb in 2009 (+1.58 runs/100 for the curve, +3.2 for the change of pace). Whereas Soriano’s high heat gets few ground balls (career 30.8 GB%), J.P. burned worms at a 51.8% clip from 2008-2009.

Despite the finesse repertoire, Howell has whiffed 9.87 per nine innings over the past two years, with 4.15 BB/9. He posted a 3.54 xFIP in 2008 and a 3.47 xFIP in 2009.

Considering Howell’s ability to toss multiple frames, Soriano would appear the be the front-runner for saves in Tampa Bay. Both are well-qualified for the role, however.

As for Chavez, the 26 year-old will be changing teams for the second time this offseason and the third time during his career. The former Rangers prospect was shipped to Pittsburgh on deadline day in 2006 in exchange for Kip Wells. He was traded to Tampa earlier this offseason for 2B Akinori Iwamura.

In three seasons at the AAA level, Chavez punched out 8.2 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.6 per nine. The 6-2 righty posted a 4.49 xFIP with the Bucs in ’09, with rates of 6.28 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.

Chavez showed off a pair of quality secondary pitches (+3.16 runs/100 for his high-80’s slider, and +0.89 for a mid-80’s changeup/splitter). His mid-90’s gas, however, was blasted for -0.72 runs/100. The fly ball-centric reliever was plagued by the long ball, surrendering 1.47 HR/9. In Atlanta, Chavez figures to fill a 6th/7th inning role.

As you probably have heard, the Detroit Tigers pulled off a major deal at the winter meetings. No, I’m not talking about shipping Clay Rapada to the Rangers for a PTBNL.

Detroit picked up RHP Max Scherzer, LHPs Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke and OF prospect Austin Jackson in a three-team swap, shipping Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson out of town in the process. Let’s take a closer look at Austin Jackson’s value, now that his path to an eventual starting spot in the big leagues is clearer.

An 8th round pick in the 2005 amateur draft, Jackson received an $800,000 signing bonus to forego a scholarship to play basketball at Georgia Tech.

The 6-1, 185 pound righty batter made his full-season debut in 2006, batting .260/.339/.346 in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Jackson worked the count well (10.2 BB%) and swiped 37 bags in 49 attempts (76% success rate). However, rarely put a charge into the ball (.086 ISO), and he punched out in 28.2 percent of his PA.

Following the year, Baseball America named Jackson the 18th best prospect in the Yankees system. BA said that he “confused scouts as both an amateur and now as a pro.” They claimed that Jackson’s speed wasn’t really as advertised. Big SB numbers and hoops background aside, BA rated Austin’s wheels as “fringy,” limiting his range in center field. He also needed to “dramatically improve his breaking-ball recognition.”

Jackson began 2007 back in the Sally League, where he showed modest improvement in the power department. He hit .260/.336/.374 in 266 PA, walking 9.3% of the time and whiffing 25.1%. Jackson’s ISO climbed to a still-modest .115, and he stole 19 bases in 25 tries (76 percent success rate).

Bumped up to the High-A Florida State League in the summer, Jackson emerged as a top talent in New York’s system. His .345/.398/.566 triple-slash in 284 PA was aided by a sky-high .395 BABIP. But Jackson smacked 10 homers in the FSL, more than he had hit in his entire career prior to that point. His ISO spiked to .221. The extra thump came at the expense of some walks (7.9 BB%), but Jackson did pare his K rate to 18.6% while going 13-for-18 in SB attempts (72 percent).

Following his reign of terror with the Tampa Yankees, Jackson ascended to #2 on New York’s prospect list entering 2008. BA changed its tone regarding his defense, saying that Jackson had “developed above-average range in center field.” He was labeled a “future all-star candidate” by Yankees brass.

Jackson spent all of 2008 in the AA Eastern League, where he posted a .285/.354/.419 line in 584 PA. While 2007’s prodigious power display didn’t persist, Jackson managed an adequate .135 ISO. His walk rate perked back up to 9.7%, and he punched out 21.7% of the time. Austin was a more efficient base thief, with 19 SB in 25 tries (76 percent). Baseball America dubbed him the best talent in the Bronx Bombers’ farm system.

In 2009, Jackson patrolled all three outfield spots in the AAA International League, still spending most of his time in the middle pasture. His .300/.354/.405 triple-slash in 557 PA looks like business as usual, but there are some underlying signs that Jackson needs more development time.

The soon-to-be 23 year-old benefitted from an unsustainable .390 BABIP. Jackson is a swift runner (as evidenced by his 24 steals in 28 attempts for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre), and his career BABIP in the minors is .361. He has the skill-set of a high BABIP hitter. But a number creeping up on .400 isn’t going to continue.

Jackson wasn’t a complete hacker at the dish, but his rate of free passes taken dipped to 7.4%, and his K rate rose to 24.4%. He didn’t hit with much authority either, with a .105 ISO. Jackson’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) line was .258/.308/.342, according to Minor League Splits. That equates to a wOBA of about .291.

Long-term, Austin Jackson looks as though he could be an average to slightly above-average everyday center fielder. However, the Tigers should resist the urge to have him patrolling Comerica Park’s spacious outfield come April. Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .252/.307/.359 line (.296 wOBA). Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS calls for a .245/.296/.338 line (.282 wOBA).

Those in keeper league should keep an eye on Jackson, as he projects to be a league average hitter long-term (Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for him is .277/.346/.406) with the speed to steal 20 bags. Just don’t count on him come opening day.