Pirates signed OF Ryan Church to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, with $1.32M in possible incentives.

Church, 31, seems to be ticketed for a fourth outfield role in Pittsburgh. The club is leaning toward starting Garrett Jones in right field, giving former Mariners prospect Jeff Clement a chance to establish himself at first base. Brandon Moss also figures into the outfield rotation, though his feeble hitting last year (74 wRC+) puts him at the back of the line.

A plus defender in an outfield corner, Church fell flat offensively during an injury-riddled 2009 season in which he was traded from the Mets to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. Atlanta non-tendered Church earlier this winter.

During his career, the lefty batter has been a slightly above-average hitter, with a 110 wRC+ and a .272/.345/.441 triple slash. However, his last healthy season was 2007, when he posted a 116 wRC+ in 530 plate appearances. Church hit the DL twice in 2008 with post-concussion syndrome, scarcely playing during the second half.

In 2009, Church was hampered by a strained hamstring and back spasms. His wRC+ was just 93 in 399 PA, as his power went MIA:

That .250 ISO in 2006 (in 230 PA) was an anomaly, but Church’s pop has declined four years running. He had a .191 ISO in 2007, a .163 mark in 2008 and a tepid .111 figure in 2009.

The former Expo, National, Met and Brave made more contact than usual this past year, though of the weak variety (career average and MLB average in parentheses):

Z-Contact: 92.9% (87.1% career, 87-88% MLB average)
Contact%: 82.2% (75.7% career, 80-81% MLB average)

Typically a quality fastball hitter (+0.97 runs/100 pitches seen), Church had a -0.12 run value against heaters this past season. It seems as though the injuries made him more content to simply but the bat on the ball, as opposed to making hard, authoritative contact. During his career, Church has hit to the opposite field 15.8 percent, to the middle field 53.1 percent and has pulled 31.1 percent. In 2009, he hit 20.1 percent to the opposite field, 51.5 percent to the middle field and pulled 27.6 percent.

CHONE projects Church to hit .263/.332/.411 in 2010, which comes out to an even 100 wRC+. He’s a nice little addition for the Bucs as a decent-hitting, rangy player acquired on the cheap. But Church needs to remain upright and hope for Jones to turn into a pumpkin to hold any fantasy value.

Giants signed 1B Aubrey Huff to a one-year, $3M contract.

Huff’s signing likely sets off a chain reaction: Pablo Sandoval will remain at third base, with Mark DeRosa manning left field.

While it’s questionable if he actually constitutes an upgrade over San Francisco’s in-house options, Huff will play first base for the Giants. You’ll hear Huff called a four-corners player in some circles. However, a look at his UZR totals shows that his glove is a clunker at every spot. That helps explain why Huff only DH’d and played first in 2009.

The 33 year-old posted wRC+ totals of 111 in 2006 and 104 in 2007, before exploding for a 139 wRC+ in 2008. Huff’s power production spiked, before tailing off considerably in 2009:

Huff has hit fly balls 36-37 percent of the time during his career, while grounding out about 45 percent. In ’08, he had a 41.7% fly ball rate and a 40.9 GB%. His ISO shot up to a career-high .247.

Now, a 32 year-old turning in a career year would be expected to decline the following season. But Huff turned in his worst campaign since 2001, posting a 79 wRC+ between the Orioles and the Tigers. His ISO plunged to .144, as he hit fly balls 36.4 percent and grounded out 48.1 percent. That was the highest ground ball rate among first basemen. When you might lose a foot race to a Molina brother (2.3 Speed Score in 2009), chopping the ball into the dirt so often is career suicide.

While Huff should bounce back somewhat next season, his bat is rather bland for the first base position. CHONE forecasts a .263/.327/.438 line in 2010, with a 103 wRC+. Bill James throws out a slightly sunnier projection: .267/.334/.445 (107 wRC+). It doesn’t help Huff’s value that his new home ball park saps lefty slugging. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, AT&T Park decreased left-handed HR production 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. AT&T has played like a slight hitter’s park, however (103 park factor), as doubles and triples production is boosted.

Huff isn’t the sort of player you should target. The upside is average production for the position, while the downside is he’s done as a serviceable starter. There’s not much incentive in that proposition.

Kansas City Royals signed OF Scott Podsednik to a one-year, $1.75 million contract with an option for the 2011 season.

Score one for Dayton Moore in a game of one-upmanship (one-downmanship?) between the Royals GM and his N.L. doppelganger in Queens.

Thirty-four years old in March, Podsednik posted a combined 76 wRC+ between 2006 and 2008, missing significant time in both ’07 (groin, rib cage) and ’08 (fractured lefty pinky finger). Back with the White Sox in 2009 after a one-year stint with the Rockies, Podsednik stayed healthy and hit .304/.353/.412 with a 103 wRC+ in 587 plate appearances. The lefty batter swiped 30 bases to boot.

Sounds good, right? Well, there are several drawbacks. Scotty Pods’ line was fueled by a .342 BABIP, well north of his .324 expected batting average on balls in play (xBABIP) and his career .321 BABIP. If you take some air out of that batting average, Podsednik’s line loses its luster. CHONE projects him to bat .271/.333/.367 with an 89 wRC+ in 2010. ZiPS throws out a .279/.336/.384 triple-slash, and the fans are even more pessimistic (.270/.323/.345, 83 wRC+).

Also, those 30 steals don’t sound quite as impressive when you consider that Podsednik was caught red-handed 13 times. With a 70 percent success rate, Podsednik actually cost the White Sox a couple of runs. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Podsednik’s stealing was worth -2.09 runs in 2009. He rated positively in 2008 (+0.93), but he was in the negatives in 2007 (-0.21) and 2006 (-1.9) as well. Those CS still matter in fantasy, as he’s costing you possible runs scored.

Overall, I’m just left wondering, “what’s the point?” The cash isn’t exorbitant and the in-house alternatives aren’t breath-taking, but Podsednik is not a clear upgrade on, say, Mitch Maier (projected by CHONE for .262/.326/.368 line and an 87 wRC+).

Why spend an additional two million bucks and not reap any reward from the expenditure? It’s like driving a Ford Pinto to a car dealership and then buying an AMC Pacer with the same features but a higher payment. You’re still going to get left in the dust. Now, it’s just going to cost more.

Texas Rangers signed INF Khalil Greene to a one-year, $750,000 contract.

From 2004 to 2007, Greene’s low on-base, high-slugging offensive profile made him a slightly above-average hitter. His wRC+ over that time period was 105. However, Greene’s production plummeted in 2008 (66 wRC+), as his power output dipped and his strikeout rate spiked. San Diego’s 2002 first-rounder broke his left hand in late July of ’08 after punching a wall, missing the rest of the season. The Padres traded him to the Cardinals for relievers Luke Gregerson and Mark Worrell that December.

Greene played sparsely for St. Louis, serving multiple DL stints while getting treatment for social anxiety disorder. In 193 PA, his wRC+ was 65. With Texas, the 30 year-old will serve as a utility man: Greene clearly won’t challenge Elvis Andrus or Ian Kinsler for up-the-middle playing time, and Michael Young is locked in at third base. It’s surprising that Greene chose a team that presents him with little opportunity for moving into a significant role. His fantasy value is basically zilch.

The Houston Astros have reportedly signed free agent RHP Brett Myers to a one-year, $5 million deal with an option for the 2011 season.

Myers, 29, missed a large portion of the 2009 season following right hip surgery to repair a torn labrum in late May. He returned to the majors in early September as a reliever. However, a right shoulder strain shelved him for a few more weeks late in the year.

Philly’s first-round pick in the 1999 amateur draft, Myers was a mainstay in the starting rotation from mid-2002 through 2006. Despite turning in a 3.4 WAR season in 2005 and a 3.5 WAR campaign in 2006, the Phillies shifted Myers to the bullpen in 2007. He moved back to the starting five in 2008, and opened 2009 as a starter prior to the hip injury.

Myers has a wide gap between his career ERA (4.40) and his career Expected Fielding Independent ERA (3.90). Over the past three seasons, the dichotomy is even greater: a 4.56 ERA, and a 3.79 xFIP.

In the majors, Myers has struck out 7.5 batters per nine frames and walked 3.14 per nine innings. The wild divergence between his actual ERA and his xFIP can be explained by Brett’s homer-happy ways: he has surrendered 1.35 round-trippers per nine innings, despite generating more ground balls than the average pitcher (his GB% is 47.3). In general, home run per fly ball rates tend to stick around 10 to 12 percent. However, Myers’ HR/FB rate in nearly 1,200 innings is 15.5 percent.

Making 10 starts and eight relief appearances in 2009, Myers posted rates of 6.37 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. He served up a jaw-dropping 18 dingers in just 70.2 innings pitched (2.29 HR/9). Again, his ERA (4.84) and xFIP (4.32) were far apart, as his HR/fly ball rate was stratospheric 23.4 percent.

In recent years, Myers has relied on his fastball less often. He chucked the pitch between 56 and 63 percent of the time between 2002 to 2005, but has since gone to his heater less than 50 percent. His fastball has been battered for a -0.77 run value per 100 pitches in the majors.

That fastball is pretty straight, tailing in on righty batters just four inches compared to a pitch thrown without spin (six inch MLB average for right-handed pitchers). As Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool shows, that true fastball hasn’t garnered many swings and misses over the past two seasons. Myers’ whiff rate with his fastball since 2008 is four percent, while the MLB average is about six percent.

Myers’ bread and butter is his breaking stuff: an average mid-80’s slider (+0.03 runs/100) and a plus high-70’s curveball (+1.48) that drops off the table. A seldom-used changeup (-0.78) hasn’t been very effective.

Though we’re dealing with a small sample, Myers was more hittable in 2009 than in years past. His overall contact rate was 84.4 percent, compared to a career 80.3 percent average (the MLB average is 80-81 percent). His swinging strike rate was 6.5 percent, well below his career norm.

Moving from Citizens Bank Park to Minute Maid, Myers goes from a venue that increased home run production by 14 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 to one that inflated homers by eight percent over the past three seasons. Overall, CPB has boosted run scoring by three percent, while Minute Maid has decreased runs by four percent.

CHONE projects Myers to post a 4.79 ERA in 2010, with 7.57 K/9, 3.07 BB/9, and 1.5 HR/9 in 126 innings pitched. He’s worth a late-round flyer, but his uncertain health status and gopher-ball problems make Myers hard to recommend strongly.

Myers’ addition likely means that Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino and Brian Moehler will compete for two rotation spots.

Norris’ control has never been a strong suit, but his low-to-mid-90’s gas and hard slider have missed plenty of lumber. Twenty-five in March, Norris had a 4.38 xFIP, 8.73 K/9 and 4.04 BB/9 in 55.2 IP for the Astros last season.

Paulino’s ’09 results look horrifying (6.27 ERA), but as Carson Cistulli points out, Felipe’s peripherals were far more promising. He punched out 8.57 per nine innings and walked 3.41, also showcasing a mid-90’s fastball and a hard breaking ball. But a .368 BABIP and a 16.9 HR/FB% made him look like a punching bag. The 26 year-old’s xFIP in 97.2 frames was 4.10.

Moehler pitched better than his 5.47 ERA would indicate (4.67 xFIP), but fantasy types should be rooting for Norris and Paulino to win those last two spots.

At 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds, Kyle Blanks looks like he would be more comfortable protecting Philip Rivers’ blind side than patrolling the outfield at Petco Park.

The right-handed hitting behemoth has a bat that’s big league ready, but his future position in San Diego depends upon whether Adrian Gonzalez (owed just $4.75 million in 2010, with a “duuuh” $5.5M option for 2011) remains Padres property. Blanks appeared in the outfield in just two rookie ball games prior to 2009. But he saw time in the outfield corners this past year in an effort to get his lumber in the same lineup as Gonzalez.

A 42nd round pick in the 2004 draft, Blanks was a draft-and-follow selection who eventually inked for $260,000. Scouts got few looks at him during his prep career in New Mexico, but the Padres were impressed with his work at Yavapai Junior College in Arizona.

Blanks wasted no time in showcasing his intriguing blend of patience, power and contact ability. In 200 plate appearances in the rookie level Arizona League in 2005, he hit .299/.420/.500. Baseball America said that Blanks had the best power in the organization, but also cautioned that “his approach at the plate is single minded-every swing is designed to hit the ball a mile.”

In 2006, Blanks batted .292/.382/.455 in 359 PA in the Low-A Midwest League. He drew a walk in 10 percent of his plate appearances, while punching out 22 percent of the time. Unfortunately, a leg infection ended his season in July. During the lay-off, Blanks ballooned to nearly 300 pounds. Baseball America dropped him from the 15th-best prospect in the Padres’ system to 29th, claiming that he needed “a big power year in high Class-A to re-establish himself as a prospect.”

Blanks did indeed turn in a big power year in 2007, with a 24 home runs and a .301/.380/.540 line in the High-A California League. Taking 531 trips to the plate, he walked 8.3 percent and improved his K rate to 18.5 percent. Blanks’ ISO soared from .163 in ’06 to .239 in ’07.

The Cal League’s Southern Division does feature some of the best hitter’s parks in the minors, but Lake Elsinore didn’t inflate offense. BA bumped Blanks up to 10th in the Padres’ system, ascribing some of that extra power to “adding a stride” to his swing “instead of just turning and rotating.”

Spending the 2008 season in the Double-A Texas League, Blanks bashed to the tune of .325/.404/.514 in 565 PA. A near-.370 BABIP helps to explain the batting average spike, but Blanks maintained most of his pop (.189 ISO) while taking ball four 9.4% and punching out 18.3%.

Having proved himself at the upper levels, Blanks jumped up to number one on San Diego’s prospect list prior to the 2009 season. He had slimmed down to 280 bills, and BA liked that fact that he “exhibit[ed] strong bat control instead of always selling out for power.” However, they also noted that such an approach cut into his ability to drive the ball at times. Blanks had a “tendency to hit with dead hands” because there’s “minimal load to his swing.”

At Triple-A Portland in 2009, Blanks hit .283/.393/.485 in 280 PA. His whiff rate climbed in the Pacific Coast League (27 percent), but Blanks’ secondary skills shined (14.3 BB%, .202 ISO).

He hit the ground running in San Diego as well, with a .250/.355/.514 line and a 138 wRC+ in 172 plate appearances. It’s unwise to infer too much from such a small sample, but Blanks hit 10 homers with a .264 ISO. He drew a walk 10.8 percent of the time, though he punched out 37.2 percent. Unfortunately, a right foot injury in late August ended his season early.

So, what should we expect from the 23 year-old Blanks in 2010? He’s currently penciled in as San Diego’s starting right fielder. Petco will do its best to sabotage his offense, as the park has depressed run scoring by 24 percent and homers by 27 percent compared to a neutral venue from 2007-2009. Even so, CHONE (which takes park effects into account) projects a .265/.353/.459 line next season, with a 119 wRC+.

It’s frustrating that Blanks will reside in such power and run-sapping environs, but he has the offensive skills to merit fantasy interest regardless. The only question is what position he’ll play.

While it’s not yet official, a trade sending 1B Casey Kotchman to the Mariners for utility man Bill Hall is expected to be announced soon. All of the details aren’t in: Boston could also receive a prospect and some cash in the transaction. For now, let’s focus on how the deal impacts Kotchman for the 2010 season.

Twenty-seven in February, Kotchman has devolved from a prized talent in the Angels’ farm system to a singles-hitter at a position where power rules the day.

The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft displayed exceptional strike zone control in the minors, walking in 10.7 percent of his plate appearances and whiffing just 9.1 percent while posting a .324/.406/.492 triple-slash.

Kotchman’s power potential was subject to much debate, however. Baseball America was hopeful: in its 2005 Prospect Handbook, BA predicted that the lefty batter with a silky-smooth swing would “hit at least 20-25 homers annually once he learn[ed] to lift the ball.” That pop didn’t manifest in the minors, though, with Kotchman’s season-best HR total topping out at ten and his career ISO on the farm standing at .168.

After cups of coffee with the Angels in 2004 and 2005 (a combined 91 wRC+ in 271 PA), Kotchman missed nearly the entire 2006 season while batting mononucleosis. He finally got a shot at everyday playing time in 2007, and the results were fairly promising. In 508 PA, Kotchman compiled a 121 wRC+. He controlled the zone (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%), while actually flashing some extra-base thump as well, with a .172 ISO.

Since then, Casey has been far from mighty at the bat:

In 2008, Kotchman was mid-season trade bait used to acquire Mark Teixeira from Atlanta. Between the Angels and the Braves, Kotchman hit a mundane .272/.328/.410 in 573 PA. His wRC+ dipped to 96. Kotchman’s walk rate fell to 6.4 percent, as his percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone spiked from 36.2% in 2007 to 48.8% in 2008 (the MLB average has ranged from 49-52% over the past few seasons).

Last offseason, we noted Kotchman’s disturbing propensity to chop the ball into the infield dirt. His near-53 percent groundball rate was commensurate with some of the speedier players in the game. As a plodding first baseman, Kotchman stuck out like a sore thumb.

Unfortunately, Kotchman continued to put the ball on the ground a ton in 2009. His 51.4 ground ball rate was highest among first basemen with 350+PA. As a guy on the low end of the defensive spectrum with a career 2.7 Speed Score, Kotchman isn’t doing much with those grounders. His batting average on grounders was .185 in 2009, and his career average is .188. For reference, the A.L. average last season was .240.

Traded again mid-season in 2009 (this time to Boston for Adam LaRoche), Kotchman batted just .268/.339/.382 with a 92 wRC+ in 431 PA. His walk rate did bounce back to 10.4 percent, but his ISO declined from 2008’s already mild .137 to .114. Overall, MLB first basemen hit .277/.362/.483 in 2009, with a .206 ISO.

Kotchman just doesn’t pull the ball with any authority. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Kotchman’s spray charts over the past three seasons. Focus on that last number, sOPS+. It compares a batter’s performance to that of the league average in a given split. 100 is average, above 100 is above average and below 100 is below-average.

Over the past three seasons, the average AL lefty batter has pulled the ball about 26 percent of the time, slugging .756 on pulled balls. Kotchman has pulled the ball about 31 percent of the time. But his slugging percentage is just .603. As this spray chart from Trip Somers’ site shows, nothin’ much happens when Casey pulls the ball:

Moving to Seattle won’t do Kotchman’s bat any favors. While Safeco isn’t total death to lefties like it is to righty batters, it still punishes southpaw hitters. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco has depressed lefty home runs by five percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009.

Kotchman brings some value to the table with his glove (career +4.4 UZR/150), but it’s hard to recommend him in fantasy leagues. Maybe he’ll finally start to pull the ball with some force and make good on those scouting prognostications. But there just isn’t much evidence to suggest that’s going to be the case. CHONE projects a .274/.339/.405 line next season. You can do better than that at first base.

Cleveland Indians signed OF Austin Kearns and OF/1B Shelley Duncan to minor league contracts.

Have you seen Kearns’ bat? He misplaced it in 2008, and hasn’t been able to find it since. The former Red won’t 30 until May, but his production dropped like a lead balloon over the past two seasons. Injuries have often plagued Kearns, but he posted a 118 wRC+ in a 2006 season split between Cincinnati and Washington and a 107 wRC+ with the Nationals in 2007. He topped the 600 PA mark both years.

Since then, Kearns has a ghastly 75 wRC+ while showing the durability of antique porcelain. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X Injury Tool, the 6-3 righty batter missed time in 2008 following right elbow surgery, while serving another DL stint for a stress fracture in his left foot. 2009 was tainted by right thumb surgery. Kearns still drew some walks in ’08 and ’09, but his power vanished:

Kearns’ ISO, by year

Kearns has been a quality defensive outfielder during his career, which helps his chances a bit. But he was an absolute wreck at the plate in 2009, with a sub-70 percent contact rate and a middle infielder-like .109 ISO. More than anything, he needs to show up to spring training in one piece.

Duncan, meanwhile, is a minor league slugger from the Yankees organization known for giving some hellacious forearm bumps.

The 30 year-old right-handed batter stands a hulking 6-5, 225 pounds, and holds a career .271/.368/.533 line in 1,200+ PA at the Triple-A level. He has drawn walks at a 12.8% clip, while striking out 19.9%. Duncan’s ISO in Triple-A is a robust .262.

Duncan has received minimal major league playing time, batting .219/.290/.411 with an 84 wRC+ in 163 PA. How would Duncan’s minor league mashing play at the highest level? Here are his Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from 2007-2009, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007
AAA: .291/.379/.565 in 333 AB
MLE: .250/.322/.468

2008
AAA: .239/.363/.483 in 215 AB
MLE: .200/.299/.395

2009
AAA: .277/.371/.548 in 451 AB
MLE: .237/.316/.454

Duncan’s raw numbers look great, but his MLEs paint the picture of a league-average hitter because of his age. CHONE is more optimistic, projecting a .252/.336/.486 triple-slash in the majors.

While it’s difficult to find many glaring faults with a ball club that tallied 95 victories and outscored the opposition by 136 runs, the 2009 Boston Red Sox featured porous team defense.

Collectively, the Red Sox ranked 18th in the majors in UZR/150. Per 150 defensive games, Boston’s fielders were -2.4 runs below average. Some players turned in great years with the leather: RF J.D. Drew and 2B Dustin Pedroia were exceptional, and Kevin Youkilis really picked it at first base. However, a hip injury turned 3B Mike Lowell into a liability, LF Jason Bay was DH-worthy and Jacoby Ellsbury rated poorly as well.

Enter Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre, two of the most skilled defenders in the game at their respective positions. It’s still unclear whether Cameron will play his customary center field, bumping Ellsbury to left, or if he’ll play left field himself. Either way, swapping in Cameron for Bay is a massive defensive upgrade. Ditto for bringing in Beltre to take over for Lowell at the hot corner.

Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Box Score released 2010 UZR projections in November. Jeff took four years of a player’s UZR totals, weighing them 5/4/3/2 and regressing to 125 games. He then applied a slight aging factor (more details here).

Here’s how the Red Sox project in 2010, with Cameron and Beltre in the fold. For comparison, I put Boston’s 2009 UZR/150 totals for each position in parentheses:

1B: Kevin Youkilis, projected +4 UZR/150 (+8.3 UZR/150 team total in 2009)
2B: Dustin Pedroia, projected +5 UZR/150 (+9.1 UZR/150 in ’09)
SS: Marco Scutaro, projected 0 UZR/150 (+3.1 UZR/150 in ’09)
3B: Adrian Beltre, projected +9 UZR/150 (-10.7 UZR/150 in ’09)
LF: Jacoby Ellsbury, projected +6 UZR/150 (-9.4 UZR/150 in ’09)
CF: Mike Cameron, projected +4 UZR/150 (-19.6 UZR/150 in ’09)
RF: J.D. Drew, projected +5 UZR/150 (+9.1 UZR/150 in ’09)

Youkilis, Pedroia and Drew figure to regress a bit, going from great to merely very good. Scutaro, another free agent import, is roughly average at shortstop. But look at those totals at third base, left field and center field. We’re talking gargantuan upgrades here.

Some might be surprised about Ellsbury’s projected total in left field, given his dreadful rating in CF last year. However, Ellsbury did rate as a well above-average fielder in 2008. Also, the average center fielder is about 10 runs better than the average corner outfielder, based on observations of how players perform at multiple positions.

For those of you wondering, Ellsbury projects as a -9 UZR/150 fielder in CF. Even if we say that Cameron would indeed be a +14 UZR/150 fielder in left (10 runs better than in center field), the Red Sox are better off with an Ellsbury LF/ Cameron CF alignment by about five runs per 150 defensive games.

What does this all mean for fantasy owners? Boston’s vastly improved fielding gives a boost in value to Red Sox pitchers. Plenty of Boston starters underperformed their Expected Fielding Independent ERAs in 2009, due in part to higher than expected batting averages on balls in play:

ERA-xFIP splits for 2009 Boston starters, minimum 50 IP

Lester’s fielders did him no favors in 2009. Beckett didn’t get burned too badly by a high BABIP- the difference between his ERA and xFIP stems from a higher-than-normal home run per fly ball rate (12.8 percent). Granted, those two (along with newcomer John Lackey) are going to be high on draft boards regardless. But it’s nice to know that they’ll be backed by quality glove men.

Penny’s no longer around, though you can see the dichotomy between his ERA and xFIP due to an inflated BABIP. Buchholz’s ERA-xFIP split is due to a sky-high HR/FB rate (15.7%), not a sky-high BABIP. Dice-K’s future is uncertain after a season mostly lost to shoulder problems, but maybe you’ll be more likely to take a flyer with Cameron and Beltre backing him up.

As a whole, Red Sox starting pitchers had a 4.63 ERA in 2009, but a 4.17 xFIP. The 0.46 run gap between Boston’s ERA and xFIP was the third-largest in the major leagues. A big reason for that split was a .324 BABIP for those starters. Some of that was probably poor luck, but a good portion of it was poor fielding. Luckily, Red Sox pitchers should have the benefit of much improved defense in 2010.

Right-hander Max Scherzer looked poised to team with Dan Haren for years to come, giving the Diamondbacks an elite one-two punch at the top of the rotation. However, after January’s three-team headliner between the Yankees, Tigers and D-Backs, Scherzer now heads to Detroit to miss scads of bats alongside Justin Verlander.

Taken out of Missouri with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft, Scherzer didn’t sign on the dotted line right away. The 6-5 power pitcher had a good, not great junior season for the Tigers, missing a run of starts with biceps and shoulder tendinitis. Baseball America said that Scherzer “only flashed” his mid-to-upper 90’s fastball velocity, generally sitting at 91-92 MPH. Scouts also had concerns about his herky-jerky delivery, as well as his promising-but-inconsistent hard slider and changeup.

With Scherzer still seeking top-line cash, negotiations between Arizona and agent Scott Boras moved at a glacial pace. This was before baseball instituted a mid-August signing deadline in 2007-prior to ’07, teams retained the rights to a player up to one week prior to the next year’s draft. Scherzer kept sharp by pitching for the independent Fort Worth Cats. Eventually, Arizona ponied up $4.3 million in guaranteed money, with $1.5 million in incentives.

Max finally took a pro mound in 2007. He started his career in the High-A California League, scorching hitters for a 30/2 K/BB ratio and a 0.53 ERA in 17 IP and quickly earning a promotion to the Double-A Southern League. In 14 AA starts covering 73.2 frames, Scherzer struck out 9.3 batters per nine innings. His control left something to be desired (4.9 BB/9), but he posted a 3.46 FIP.

Following the ’07 season, Baseball America named Scherzer the fourth-best prospect in a loaded Arizona system (Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Parker and Brett Anderson ranked ahead of him). BA gushed over his fastball, which hit the “mid-90’s with sinking action at its best.” Scherzer’s upper-80’s slider also impressed, though it was inconsistent.

However, they also noted that “some scouts who saw Scherzer as a starter at midseason wondered what the fuss was about.” His heater sat in the low-90’s, and “his overall stuff, command, feel and delivery all drew questions.” A dominant showing in relief in the Arizona Fall League (18 K in 12.2 IP) seemed to reinforce the concept that Scherzer could end up as a closer instead of a starter.

Scherzer began the 2008 season starting at Triple-A Tucson of the Pacific Coast League, but he was summoned to the majors in late April. He oscillated between the rotation and the ‘pen before being sent back to AAA in mid-June. Unfortunately, he came down with a case of shoulder inflammation, missing a month of the season. After a few relief appearances with the Sidewinders, Scherzer transitioned back to the minor league rotation in late July. Recalled to Arizona in late August, Max had a pair of relief stints and then spent September in the major league rotation. Whew-got all that?

In AAA, Scherzer simply outclassed the competition. He whiffed 13.4 batters per nine with 3.7 BB/9. Max’s FIP was a microscopic 2.07 in 53 innings. When batters weren’t swinging and missing wildly, they were chopping the ball into the ground (51.7 GB%).

With the Diamondbacks, Scherzer made seven starts and nine relief appearances in 56 IP. Overall, he displayed an impressive combo of power (10.61 K/9) and control (3.38 BB/9). Scherzer’s xFIP was just 3.19.

His stuff was as wicked as advertised. Scherzer sat at 94 MPH with his fastball, tossing the pitch about 73 percent of the time. That gas was supplemented by a mid-80’s slider (thrown 17 percent) and changeup (10 percent). Scherzer’s fastball had a +0.63 run value per 100 pitches, and his slider bucked knees for a +3.79 mark. The changeup lagged behind, though the sample size was small (-3.29). Scherzer pounded the strike zone, placing 54.7 percent of his pitches over the plate (51.1% MLB average in ’08), and his 72.9% contact rate was well below the 80.8% big league average.

In 2009, Scherzer began the year on the DL with shoulder fatigue and tightness. Max became a full-time starter after his activation in mid-April, taking the mound 30 times and throwing 170.1 innings. The 25 year-old was extremely hard to hit, punching out 9.19 batters per nine innings. His 76.9% contact rate was 14-lowest among starters, and his 10.4 swinging strike rate placed 16th among starters (7.8% average for SP).

Scherzer’s control was solid as well. He issued a modest 3.33 BB/9, while getting ahead of batters with a 61.3 first-pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). With a 3.88 xFIP, Scherzer placed in the top 20 among NL starters.

Max’s fastball didn’t lose much zip while making all of his appearances as a starter, sitting at 93.6 MPH. He still called on the pitch heavily: Scherzer’s 71% fastball usage was seventh-highest among starters. That heater was slightly below average on a per-pitch basis (-0.11 runs/100). Scherzer’s 85 MPH slider (thrown 12 percent) posted a +0.58 runs/100 value, while his changeup checked in at -0.61.

The high-octane righty subdued same-handed batters, holding right-handed hitters to a 92 sOPS+ (he performed eight percent better than the league average vs. RHB). Lefties fared better, with a 103 sOPS+.

In moving from Chase Field to Comerica Park, Scherzer goes from a hitter’s paradise to a park that still favors offense, though not to the same extent. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Chase inflated run-scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2007-2009. Over that same time period, Comerica boosted runs by five percent.

Overall, Scherzer’s first year as a permanent starter was extremely promising. Many have wondered why the Diamondbacks shipped him out of town, preferring two years of team control over Edwin Jackson and six years of Ian Kennedy over five years of Scherzer and six years of Daniel Schlereth.

The most likely reason is that Arizona doubts Scherzer’s long-term health and viability as a starting pitcher. To recap his extensive injury history since 2006: shoulder and biceps tendinitis in ’06, shoulder inflammation in 2008, shoulder fatigue and tightness in 2009. His health certainly bears watching, especially considering that Scherzer’s innings total increased from 109 in 2008 to 175 in 2009 (major league innings plus one rehab start).

There’s little doubt that Scherzer has the talent to become one of the top 20-30 starters in the majors. Few pitchers combine his ability to miss bats with quality control. The question is: can he hold up physically?

Injury information taken from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool

The Cleveland Indians enjoyed the services of switch-hitting dynamo Victor Martinez until his trade to Boston last summer. Soon enough, another power-hitting backstop who takes cuts from both sides of the plate (Carlos Santana) figures to pick up where V-Mart left off.

Until then, Lou Marson will try to establish himself as more than just Santana’s placeholder. The 23 year-old came to Cleveland from Philadelphia in last July’s Cliff Lee trade, along with INF Jason Donald, RHP Carlos Carrasco and RHP Jason Knapp.

Philly’s 4th-round pick in the 2004 draft, Marson was a premium high school quarterback prospect in Arizona. He broke his collarbone as a senior, however, and decided to focus on baseball.

The 6-1, 200 pound righty batter didn’t light up the box scores in the Gulf Coast League in 2004 (.257/.333/.389 in 126 PA) or the Short Season New York-Penn League in 2005 (.245/.329/.391 in 252 PA). Still, Marson controlled the strike zone (10.6 BB%, 18.5 K% between the two stops), and Baseball America said he was capable of becoming “an intelligent, dependable receiver with an above-average arm and solid power.”

It was more of the same in Marson’s 2006 full-season debut. He hit a mild .243/.343/.351 in 410 PA in the Low-A South Atlantic League. While he showed little pop (.109 ISO) and his K rate crept up (23.4 K%), Marson drew walks at a 12.3% clip. That advanced eye, coupled with Marson’s blossoming receiving skills, led BA to gradually nudge him up Philly’s prospect list (27 in 2005, 23 in 2006, 19 in 2007). However, there were holes in his offensive game: “his swing can become very long at times, and breaking balls give him fits.”

In 2007, Marson made significant progress at the plate in the High-A Florida State League. Batting .288/.373/.407 in 457 PA, he maintained a patient approach (11.7 BB%) while paring down his whiff rate (20.4 K%) and lacing a few more extra-base hits (.120 ISO). Marson moved up to 8th in the Phillies farm system prior to the 2008 season. BA noted a shift in hitting philosophy: he “shortened his swing and developed a much more consistent two-strike approach.”

Bumped up to AA Eastern League in 2008, Marson did nothing to dent his improved prospect status. He hit .314/.433/.416 in 395 PA, taking a free pass a whopping 17.4% of the time and punching out 21.7%. Marson’s ISO (.102) was down somewhat, and a .389 BABIP no doubt played a big role in the batting average spike. Even so, he earned a September call-up and climbed to third on Philly’s list of farm products before the 2009 campaign. Though they considered his power ceiling low, Baseball America lauded Marson’s advanced plate discipline and “professional approach.”

Marson actually spent much of April in the majors in 2009, helping to fill in for a banged-up Carlos Ruiz. He was sent to the AAA International League once “Chooch” was healthy. In 241 PA with Lehigh Valley, Marson posted a .294/.382/.370 triple-slash, with a 12.4 BB%, a 19 percent K rate and a .076 ISO.

After the Lee swap, Marson was sent to AAA Columbus, where he batted a bland .243/.319/.340 in 116 PA. He walked 8.8%, whiffed 18.4% and had a .097 ISO. Lou’s overall AAA line in ’09 was .277/.361/.360. Marson got some starts in Cleveland in September. In 72 total big league PA between the Indians and Phillies, he hit .246/.347/.361, with a 14.4 BB%, 34.4 K%, and a .115 ISO.

Kelly Shoppach is now a Tampa Bay Ray. Santana thrashed AA pitching last year (.290/.413/.530), but he underwent surgery to remove a broken hamate bone in his right hand in December. The needed recovery time might push back Santana’s major league ETA, and he’ll likely open 2010 with Columbus. The only other catcher on the 40-man roster is 27 year-old Wyatt Toregas.

As such, Marson has a short window to avoid being cast as a backup at the major league level. He’s definitely not going to hold off Santana’s impact bat for long, and perhaps Cleveland will prefer to keep Marson as a capable second-string option. But he could become trade bait again if he shows promise.

CHONE has Marson hitting .255/.342/.349 in 2010, while ZiPS envisions a .247/.338/.325 line. He reminds me of Cincinnati’s Ryan Hanigan (good eye, little power), though he doesn’t have Hanigan’s contact skills. Marson has a shot at being a starting catcher in some other city later on, but he may be best utilized as Santana’s caddy in the long term.