Bringing up the rear in baseball’s short stack division, the Seattle Mariners haven’t put many crooked numbers on the score board. The M’s have plated an AL-low 109 runs and, even accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Safeco Field, the offense has been awful. With -31.9 park-adjusted Batting Runs, Seattle can only take solace in knowing the Houston Astros are making more outs (-55.1 park-adjusted Batting Runs).

Over the winter, the Mariners brought in a switch-hitter with a keen eye in an attempt to boost the club’s run scoring. Chone Figgins, fresh off a .298/.395/.393 season with the Angels in which he swiped 42 bases, inked a four-year, $36 million deal. Seattle decided to shift Chone to second base, giving him multi-position eligibility in fantasy leagues. The projection systems figured Figgins wouldn’t replicate his ’09 season, but they still envisioned a useful year at the plate for the 32-year-old:

CHONE: .272/.370/.358, .334 wOBA
ZiPS: .280/.373/.362, .339 wOBA
FANS: .291/.380/.374, .347 wOBA

But, instead of giving Seattle a high-OBP bat in addition to plus defense, Chone has slogged to a .190/.326/.241 triple-slash in 146 plate appearances. His wOBA is a ghastly .279. Why is Figgins falling so short of expectations?

Figgins is still drawing a ton of walks, with a 17.2 BB%, and he’s not swinging at many junk pitches off the plate (16.2 outside swing percentage; 25-27% MLB average in recent years). However, he has whiffed at a much higher rate than usual: Chone has K’d 26.7 percent of the time, compared to a 17.4% career rate. Figgins’ contact rate on pitches within the zone, 90.9% for his career, is 88.8% in 2010 (87-88% MLB average). His overall contact rate is 79.8%, well below his 86% career rate and close to the 80-81% MLB average.

In addition to swinging and missing more than usual, Figgins has let a lot of strikes go by this year. When opposing hurlers throw him a pitch within the strike zone, Chone is swinging just 48.6 percent of the time. For comparison, his career in-zone swing rate is 62 percent and the MLB average this season is 63.3 percent. Figgins’ taking more strikes has helped put his back against the wall more often and has likely contributed to the elevated K rate. In 2009, 50.5 percent of his plate appearances reached a two strike count (48 percent MLB average). This year, 55.5 percent of his PA have gone to two strikes (thanks, Baseball-Reference).

In terms of his batted ball profile, Figgins is hitting about the same number of ground balls. But more of his balls put in play are being classified as fly balls, at the expense of line drives. Figgins is hitting fly balls at a career-high 43.5% (34.3% career average), and hitting line drives a career-low 15.3% (23.4% career average).

Line drives fall for hits well over 70 percent of the time, so a steep drop in liners is certainly a negative for a hitter. A declining line drive rate and an increasing fly ball rate is even worse for a guy like Figgins, who has precious little power (.052 ISO this year, .095 ISO career). Fly balls hit in the AL have had a slugging percentage in the high .500’s in recent seasons, but Figgins’ career slugging percentage when he lofts the ball is .386. When Chone hits a fly ball, nothing much happens.

However, the distinction between line drives and fly balls can be hazy. Liners don’t show a high year-to-year correlation. It’s hard to say if Figgins really is struggling to rope the ball, or if perhaps the official scorer has binned some balls in play as fly balls that others might call a liner.

Even if we assume that Chone’s drop in line drive rate is legitimate, and that he’ll continue to punch out at a high rate, he has been hampered by a .250 batting average on balls put in play. His expected BABIP, based on his 2010 rate of homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls and pop ups, is .320.

Odds are, Figgins hasn’t suddenly fallen off of a cliff: his rest-of-season ZiPS forecast is .268/.368/.357 (.333 wOBA), with a .328 BABIP. Chone’s contact numbers and rate of liners/fly balls hit bear watching. But a league average batter, with stolen base chops and eligibility at the key stone and the hot corner, is a worthy fantasy option in most leagues.

Signed to a two-year, $12 million deal by the San Francisco Giants over the winter, Mark DeRosa was supposed to provide his new employers with a good bat and position versatility. Similarly, fantasy players looked the former Brave, Ranger, Cub, Indian and Cardinal to hit at a decent clip while qualifying at third base, the outfield and first base. He stood a good chance of re-gaining eligibility at the keystone spot as well.

Unfortunately, DeRosa’s surgically repaired left wrist continues to hamper him at the plate. Possibly headed to the DL with a nerve irritation producing numbness in his left hand, DeRosa fumed to MLB.com’s Chris Haft:

A brutally honest Mark DeRosa said Tuesday that the left wrist surgery he underwent last year was a “total failure” and will remain out of the Giants’ lineup for at least a couple of days to determine his next course of action.

“When’s the last time I crushed a ball? I feel like my bottom hand’s underwater. I don’t have much feeling in my bottom two fingers,” said DeRosa, a right-handed batter.

DeRosa last played Saturday, when he went 0-for-5 at New York and didn’t hit the ball out of the infield in three at-bats against Mets starter Johan Santana.

“It came to a full head in my second at-bat,” DeRosa recalled. “[Santana’s] throwing 88, 89 [mph] and I was sitting on a middle-in fastball. It was there on a tee. I went to move on it. When it came out of his hand, I [said], ‘This is a bare minimum double to left-center.’ The next thing I know, it’s a weak popup to second base.”

DeRosa, 35, served a DL stint last July due to the wrist problem and went under the knife in October of ’09 to repair a torn tendon sheath. It’s often said that wrist injuries sap power, and Beyond the Box Score’s Dan Turkenkopf found some support for that baseball axiom.

The agitated Giant split the ’09 season between Cleveland and St. Louis, suffering the wrist injury right after the deal that brought him to the Cards for relievers Chris Perez and Jess Todd. DeRosa hit for a good deal of pop with both clubs, finishing the season with a .183 Isolated Power. Given his age, even a healthy DeRosa figured to hit for less power in 2010: CHONE (projected .153 ISO), ZiPS (.161) and the FANS (.164) all called for fewer extra-base hits.

So far, DeRosa looks like he’s swinging 20,000 leagues under the sea. In 104 plate appearances, he has a .194/.279/.258 triple-slash, with a .244 wOBA. DeRosa’s ISO is .065.

While it could be a coincidence, DeRosa’s typically solid plate discipline has tailed off since he suffered that wrist injury:

(For reference, the MLB average for outside swing rate is in the 25-27% range since 2007; it was closer to 20% from 2002-2006. The average first pitch strike percentage has remained steady at 58-59%.)

The biggest increase in swings has been on four-seam fastballs. According to Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ Texas Leaguers site, DeRosa offered at 39.8 percent of four-seamers with Cleveland (45.2% MLB average). With the Cardinals, that swing percentage rose to 52.8, and has remained high at 51.9% with San Fran in 2010. Again, we can’t definitely prove cause and effect, but DeRosa’s run value per 100 pitches against fastballs was +0.88 with Cleveland, +0.23 with St. Louis and is -2.28 with San Francisco this season.

With DeRosa ailing, John Bowker (.266/.337/.435 rest-of-season ZiPS projection) could benefit by logging more starts in left field. Given DeRosa’s health issues, owners should abandon ship.

The Pittsburgh Pirates thought they had snagged an under-the-radar starter when the club acquired Charlie Morton (along with prospects Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez) in a June 2009 trade that landed Nate McLouth in Atlanta.

A lanky, 6-4 right-hander who displayed drastically improved peripherals at the Triple-A level (150.2 IP, 8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9), Morton made 18 decent starts for the Bucs after the swap. In 97 innings, the Braves’ third-round pick in the 2002 draft posted rates of 5.75 K/9, 3.71 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP, getting grounders at a 49 percent rate. Heading into 2010, the projection systems viewed Morton as a good bet to be an above-average big league starter:

ZiPS: 3.99 FIP
CHONE: 4.16 FIP
FANS: 4.16 FIP

A quick look at the 26-year-old’s stat sheet suggests he’s pitching more like Charlie Brown. Tossing 31.1 innings, Charlie has a 9.19 ERA. Good grief.

Look closer, though, and you’ll see some reasons for optimism. Using low-90’s heat, a pair of breaking pitches and a changeup, Morton has punched out 7.76 batters per nine innings with 2.87 BB/9. His xFIP is far less frightening than his ERA, at 4.00.

So why the ERA high enough to make manager John Russell turn greener than the Pirate Parrot? Morton has suffered from a .389 batting average on balls in play. When hitters loft the ball, it’s leaving the yard a whopping 21.9 percent of the time. Morton’s career rate is 11%, which is right around the MLB average as well. And his strand rate is absurdly low: just 46.8 percent of base runners have failed to cross home plate, the lowest figure among starters by a wide margin.

Morton clearly won’t continue to allow so many base runners to score, but he has experienced some problems pitching with men on during his big league career. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Morton’s splits with the bases empty and with runners on base, as well as the NL average for pitchers in 2009:

And here’s the change in Morton’s performance, compared to the average for NL pitchers in 2009:

On average, pitchers perform worse with runners on base. Last year, NL pitchers saw an increase of eight points in batting average and 24 points in on-base percentage with men on base compared to bases empty situations. Pitchers allow slightly fewer extra-base hits with men on, but they strike out a few less batters and walk more batters as well.

Even compared to the average pitcher, Morton has scuffled with men on base. His K rate has dipped considerably more than the average. Charlie has allowed plenty of extra-base hits with runners on, too, compared to bases empty situations (+74 points of ISO).

It’s true that strand rates can vary among pitchers, though numbers straying greatly from the 70-72% MLB average are likely to regress back toward the mean. These stats indicate that Morton does have problems with runners on base. But, even if one concedes that he struggles out of the stretch (some think he could be tipping his pitches), Morton’s strand rate is going to rise a good deal. The lowest strand rate among starters in 2009 (minimum 100 innings) was 59.3%, by Kansas City’s Luke Hochevar.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Morton to post a 3.99 FIP, with 6.49 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9. NL-only players willing to endure ridicule from fellow owners (you picked up WHO? Hah!) could get a solid starter with some upside in Morton.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

The USC product mowed down hitters in the minors (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and posted solid Major League Equivalent lines in 2007 and 2008, but modest stuff and a lost 2009 season dented Kennedy’s value. Last year, surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit limited him to one big league inning and 22.2 frames at Triple-A.

Picked up from the Yankees as part of a three-team deal over the winter, Kennedy has settled in quite nicely in the desert. He has been fortunate on balls put in play (.252 BABIP) and his 82.9 percent strand rate will likely fall, so the 3.48 ERA will rise. But in 44 innings, the 25-year-old righty has 7.16 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 4.11 xFIP.

Throwing high-70’s curves, low-80’s changeups and occasional mid-80’s sliders to supplement an 89-90 MPH fastball, Kennedy is holding his own with an 8.9 percent swinging strike rate (8.3% MLB average). He’s pounding the zone, with 52.7 percent of his pitches crossing the plate (48% MLB average) and has an impressive 65.9 first pitch strike percentage (57.7% MLB average).

Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher in a park that inflates homer production, and he’s not keeping the near-.250 BABIP. Even so, he’s owned in just 17% of Yahoo leagues and seems capable of posting a low-four’s ERA with a solid K/BB ratio from here on out.

Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers

Hampered by knee, pectoral and calf injuries, Vlad had a tame .343 wOBA in 2009. His Isolated Power, typically in the low-to-mid-.200’s, was .164. At 35, with his body seemingly failing him, Guerrero looked to be firmly on the decline.

Instead, The Impaler is hitting .339/.375/.539 (.390 wOBA), and his ISO is back up to an even .200. Guerrero is pulling the ball more often this year, and he’s hitting the ball with a little more authority to the middle field as well (data from Baseball-Reference):

And, would you believe that Vlad is actually hacking more than usual this year? Famous for a Lone star state-sized strike zone, Guerrero has chased 49 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, his highest rate dating back to 2002. He’s not human.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

The 23-year-old southpaw has received plenty of attention around these parts, yet Garcia is available in one-third of Yahoo leagues.

Featuring a cornucopia of pitches (fastball, two-seamer, curve, slider, cutter, changeup), Garcia has whiffed 7.11 batters per nine innings, walked 3.55 and has induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip.

St. Louis’ 22nd round pick in the ’05 draft will eventually surrender a dinger, his .252 BABIP will rise and he’ll strand less than 83 percent of base runners (those numbers help explain the 1.18 ERA). But Garcia’s xFIP is a stellar 3.59. He’s getting swinging strikes 9.6 percent, and has gotten batters to chase pitches out of the zone 28.5 percent (27.2% MLB average in 2010). Durability is a concern, but with solid K rates and ground ball tendencies, Garcia is well worth a roster spot.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Baltimore’s center fielder appeared headed for bigger and better things this season, coming off of a 2009 campaign in which he improved his walk rate, ISO and wOBA.

Instead of building off of 2009’s .343 wOBA, Jones holds a brutal .265 wOBA in 2010. After compiling a .180 ISO last year, he’s at .126 this season. He’s chasing more pitches out of the zone than ever (40.7%, compared to an already-high 35.9% career rate) and he’s taking a cut at fewer pitches within the zone (64.5% – his career mark is 70.6%). Swinging at more junk pitches and letting more strikes go by – that’s a recipe for a lot of pitcher’s counts. Indeed, Jones’ first pitch strike percentage is 66.4. Not surprisingly, he’s drawing walks at a career-worst 2.9 percent rate.

Scott Kazmir, Angels

Kazmir has lost velocity and K’s, while keeping the walks and extreme fly ball proclivities. Past reputation aside, Kazmir’s current blend of skills makes him the AL’s answer to Oliver Perez.

The 26-year-old lefty, slowed by elbow, quad and shoulder problems in recent years, has 7.82 K/9, 5.68 BB/9, a 32.9% ground ball rate and an ugly 5.51 xFIP in 25.1 innings this season. Though his swinging strike and contact rates have bounced back somewhat from last year’s career-worst levels, they fall short of his Rays glory days. And, he has placed just 42.9 percent of his pitches within the strike zone. Kazmir’s xFIPs from 2007-2009? 3.79, 4.13, and 4.88. He has been in gradual decline for a while – this isn’t the same electric starter who broke in with Tampa.

Aramis Ramirez, Cubs

Is it time to get concerned here? The 31-year-old Ramirez, who missed time last season with a dislocated left shoulder, is hitting just .163/.226/.260. Among batters with at least 80 trips to the plate, only Brandon Wood and Jerry Hairston have posted worse wOBA’s than A-Ram’s .218.

While Ramirez has an insanely low .183 BABIP, he hasn’t hit for any power (.098 ISO) and he’s whiffing much more than usual (24.4 K%, 15.4% career average). His percentage of in-zone contact is just 81.3, well below his 87.5% average since 2002 and the 87-88% big league average.

Ramirez usually rakes against fastballs. Per 100 pitches seen, he posted +1.3, +1.38 and +1.36 run values versus heaters from 2007-2009. This season, he’s at a MLB-worst -4.24. Maybe it’s just a timing issue, but Ramirez’s bat looks slow.

The Boston Red Sox hold a 17-16 record and a -11 run differential entering play Tuesday. To get back into playoff contention, the Sox face a steep climb up baseball’s version of Mount Kilimanjaro, the AL East. With the Yankees and Rays playing superbly, Boston currently has a seven percent chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com and a 15 percent shot according to Baseball Prospectus.

Much attention has been paid to the disappointing start of Josh Beckett. After inking a four-year, $68 million contract extension in early April, Beckett has been bombed for a 7.46 ERA over his first seven starts. What gives?

Let’s start with the obvious: he hasn’t been that bad. While Beckett’s ERA makes him look like he should be mopping up for Billy Ray “Rojo” Johnson, he has been subject to terrible luck on balls put in play and has stranded far fewer base runners than usual. Beckett’s BABIP is .365 (.303 career), and his left on base rate is 56.9 percent (71.5 percent career).

While the 30-year-old (this Saturday) has undoubtedly gotten some bad breaks, he also hasn’t been his usual dominant self, either. In 41 innings, Beckett has 7.46 K/9 (lowest since 2006) and 3.51 BB/9 (highest since ’06). His 4.35 xFIP is a run higher than his 2009 mark, and is also his highest since the righty’s first year in Beantown back in 2006.

Beckett’s 8.6 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with his marks in recent years. His 82 percent contact rate is just slightly higher than his 80-81 percent figures from 2006-2009. The big change lies in Beckett’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone: his Zone%, in the 52-54 percent range from ’06-09, was consistently above the 48-51 percent MLB average. This year, however, Beckett has located 47.8 percent of his pitches within the zone (the MLB average thus far is 48 percent).

The main culprits for Beckett’s so-so control and slightly elevated contact rate appear to be his two-seam fastball and his curveball. In 2009, he threw his two-seamer for a strike 64.5 percent (57.2 MLB average), with a 10 percent whiff rate (5% MLB average). This year, his two-seamer has been thrown for a strike 58.1 percent, with a 7.5 percent whiff rate. Beckett’s curve got strikes 59.6 percent in ’09 (58% MLB average), with batters whiffing 11.5 percent (11.6% MLB average). In 2010, the hammer’s strike percentage is 54.3, and its whiff percentage is 9.4. Beckett is throwing fewer curves this season (18.8%, compared to 25.5% in 2009), mixing in more cutters and changeups.

It’s true, Beckett hasn’t been great to begin 2010. But I don’t see any reason for outright panic. After years of fantastic pitching, he has gone though a stretch during which he has been merely average. Beckett’s not suddenly getting battered. Rather, he’s having some difficulty placing his two-seam fastball and signature curve and has subsequently issued more free passes than usual. This looks like a good time to pry Beckett from a frustrated owner: ZiPS projects 8.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 3.37 FIP for the rest of the season, and I see little reason to think he’s more than a mechanical adjustment away from resuming his role as Red Sox co-ace.

During his first full year as a big league starter, Max Scherzer showcased a sizzling fastball. The University of Missouri righty, who came to terms with the Diamondbacks after a protracted holdout that included a stint in indy ball, averaged 94.1 MPH with his heater. In 170.1 frames, Scherzer whiffed 9.19 batters per nine innings, walked 3.33 and posted a 3.88 xFIP that ranked in the top 20 among NL starting pitchers.

Shipped to Detroit over the winter as part of a three-time trade that put Curtis Granderson in Yankee pinstripes, Scherzer was expected to team with Justin Verlander to give the Tigers a pair of high-octane aces at the front of the rotation. Recapping Scherzer’s ’09 season, I wrote the following back in January:

Overall, Scherzer’s first year as a permanent starter was extremely promising. Many have wondered why the Diamondbacks shipped him out of town, preferring two years of team control over Edwin Jackson and six years of Ian Kennedy over five years of Scherzer and six years of Daniel Schlereth.

The most likely reason is that Arizona doubts Scherzer’s long-term health and viability as a starting pitcher. To recap his extensive injury history since 2006: shoulder and biceps tendinitis in ‘06, shoulder inflammation in 2008, shoulder fatigue and tightness in 2009. His health certainly bears watching, especially considering that Scherzer’s innings total increased from 109 in 2008 to 175 in 2009 (major league innings plus one rehab start).

There’s little doubt that Scherzer has the talent to become one of the top 20-30 starters in the majors. Few pitchers combine his ability to miss bats with quality control. The question is: can he hold up physically?

While Scherzer hasn’t missed any time in 2010, he also hasn’t displayed the electric stuff that made him such a prized commodity in fantasy circles: his average fastball velocity is 91.7 MPH this year. In 2009, batters whiffed at Scherzer’s gas 13.1 percent of the time. That blew the six percent big league average out of the water. In 2010, though? his whiff rate on the fastball is a nothing-special 5.9 percent. His fastball was thrown for a strike 65.6 percent last year, but that figure has fallen to 61.7 percent with the Tigers (64.4 percent MLB average).

That fastball is clearly key to Scherzer’s success: per Trip Somers’ tool, Scherzer threw a fastball 74.3 percent of the time in 2009 and has gone to it 68.5 percent in 2010. Given the big drop in whiff rate on the pitch, it’s not surprising to see that Scherzer’s contact rate is up to a MLB average 81 percent, compared to last year’s 76.9 percent mark, and his swinging strike rate is also right around the big league average at 8.2 percent. In 2009, it was 10.6 percent.

Back in April, Mike Fast estimated that a starter’s run average increased by 0.25 runs for every MPH of fastball velocity lost. So far, Scherzer has a 6.81 ERA in 37 innings pitched. He hasn’t been that bad: a .346 BABIP and very low strand rate (58.3 percent) haven’t done him any favors. But with just 6.08 K/9 and 3.41 BB/9, Scherzer’s xFIP sits at a mediocre 4.85. A two-plus MPH loss in velocity would suggest a rise in runs allowed per nine frames in the neighborhood of six-tenths of a run. For a guy as reliant on the heat as Scherzer, perhaps it’s a bit more.

This isn’t to set off panic alarms. I’m not going to channel Jim Cramer and scream “Sell! Sell! Sell!” (Plus, I don’t have a fancy sound-effect board, so it wouldn’t have the same resonance.) But, given Scherzer’s checkered health history, the drop off in velocity is troubling and should be monitored. Scherzer hasn’t shown the same ferocious fastball with his new club.

When it comes to offensive ineptitude, the Houston Astros reign supreme. Collectively, ‘Stros batters have a MLB-worst .260 wOBA. That’s 29 points below the mark posted by the second-to-last Mariners. Houston ranks dead last in the majors in walk rate as well, at 5.1 percent. It’s not close, either: the Royals and Orioles, tied for 29th-place, look downright patient by comparison, drawing free passes at a 7.2 percent rate. Not surprisingly, the Astros have hacked at plenty of pitches out of the strike zone (29.8 percent, 6th-highest in the majors; the MLB average is 25-27% in recent years).

The biggest hacker, aside from Humberto Quintero, has been right fielder Hunter Pence. Houston’s second round pick in the 2004 draft broke into the big leagues in 2007, hitting .322/.360/.539 with a .384 wOBA. While Pence displayed excellent pop during his rookie year (.217 Isolated Power), his .377 batting average on balls in play was bound to come down. It did in 2008 (.301 BABIP), and his line dropped to .269/.318/.466 (.334 wOBA). Pence again put a charge into the ball, with a .197 ISO, but his free-swinging ways were more of a problem without all of those additional bloops and bleeders avoiding leather.

In 2009, Pence showed more restraint at the plate and turned in a quality offensive season. After swinging at 29.8 percent of pitches out of the zone in ’07 and 31.1 percent in ’08, Pence chased 26.6 percent of outside pitches in ’09. His walk rate, 5.4 percent and 6.2 percent the two previous seasons, climbed to nine percent (right around the MLB average). With more walks, similar power (.190 ISO) and a .308 BABIP, Pence produced a .282/.346/.472 triple-slash (.351 wOBA).

At 27, Pence appeared ready to settle in as a good fantasy option with a passable walk rate, above-average power and a dash of speed (he cracked the double digits in SB each year from 2007-2009). ZiPS predicted a .350 wOBA, while CHONE (.358 wOBA) and the FANS (.363 wOBA) expected slightly more.

Instead, Pence has sputtered to a .231/.252/.343 line so far, with a feeble .254 wOBA. Those plate discipline gains haven’t carried over to 2010, as he has swung at 34.4 of pitches off the dish. Pence has worked opposing pitchers for a walk just three times in 111 plate appearances (2.7 percent). He’s putting the ball in play on the first pitch or getting behind in the count 0-1 at the highest rate of his career, with a 65.8 first pitch strike percentage (57-58% MLB average).

Pence is making contact at the highest rate of his career, but most of that additional contact is coming on those pitcher’s pitches off the plate: his percentage of contact within the zone is 89 percent (85% career average), but his O-Contact is 75.4 percent (57.5% career average). Swinging at and making contact with so many bad pitches has led to plenty of weakly hit balls put in play for Pence.

His groundball rate, 49-53 percent between 2007 and 2009, has spiked to 65.3 percent. Pence’s rate of fly balls hit has dipped to 24.2 percent (32.4% career average) and his line drive rate is 10.5 percent (15.3% career average). Ground balls, obviously, don’t lead to many extra-base hits. Grounders hit in the NL have a .250 slugging percentage in 2010, compared to .615 for fly balls and .988 for line drives. When Pence isn’t pounding the ball into the grass, he’s popping it up. His infield/fly ball percentage is 26.1 percent, compared to a 12.1% career average and the near-eight percent big league average. The University of Texas at Arlington product might have a .239 BABIP, but he’s been awful by any measure.

Pence owners should ride out this rough stretch, as his value is at its lowest point. This could be a good time to grab Pence at a serious discount, though, as he’s owned in just 65% of Yahoo leagues and has surely frustrated some of those owners who have held on to him. Of course, Pence being a buy-low candidate capable of paying dividends is predicated on his taking a plate approach that doesn’t resemble a stoner with the munchies swinging at a pinata. Pence needs to show better patience if he’s going to rebound significantly.

Today’s premium prospects receive more scrutiny than ever. Short of parting the Red Sea and ending world hunger (I’m looking at you, Strasburg), hot-shot young players may receive an, “is that it?” reaction from fans when they merely hold their own in the early stages of their respective big league careers.

Take Tampa’s David Price. The 1st overall pick in the 2007 draft abused minor league hitters and received national acclaim by flinging upper-90’s heat and sinister upper-80’s sliders out of the ‘pen during the 2008 playoffs. Entering 2009, Price adorned magazine covers and battled Matt Wieters for the titles of Best Prospect Ever and Time Man of the Year.

While Price didn’t dominate from the get-go as a starter, he more than held his own for a 23-year-old in the A.L. East. In 128.1 IP, he posted rates of 7.15 K/9, 3.79 BB/9 and a 4.49 xFIP. In 2010, Price has a 1.91 ERA in 42.1 frames. While he hasn’t suddenly morphed into Sandy Koufax circa 1963, Price has shown improvement in a few key areas.

In ’09, Price didn’t get batters to chase or swing through a pitch all that often. His outside swing percentage was 22.9 (25-27% MLB average), and his swinging strike percentage was a mild 7.5 (8-8.5% MLB average). This year, Price is getting outside swings 30 percent of the time, while getting a swinging strike 8.4 percent.

During his first year in the rotation, the 6-6 southpaw relied upon two main pitches: a 93 MPH four-seam fastball and an 83-84 MPH slider. The second time around, Price’s repertoire appears more expansive. Rather than tossing a four-seamer 71 percent of the time and mixing in sliders about 20 percent, Price has thrown a two-seamer about 24 percent and has gone to a 76-77 MPH curveball (thrown about 18 percent) as his breaking pitch of choice. His percentage of four-seam fastballs is in the low forties, and his slider percentage is less than half of what it was last season.

With the two-seamer (thrown about 90 MPH, with about 2 inches more tailing action in on lefties than the average two-seamer), Price’s ground ball rate has ticked up a bit, from 41.5% to 43.4%. The curve, while not getting many whiffs (6.1%, compared to the 10.5% MLB average), is getting plenty of strikes: 70.2%, way above the 58% big league average.

Whether the introduction of another breaking pitch has played a part or not, Price’s slider has been harder to hit this year. In ’09, the slide-piece was whiffed at just 5.9% (13% MLB average). In 2010, that whiff rate has climbed to a more palatable 11.1%. Perhaps the presence of two breaking balls has hitters less certain about what Price is going to throw. Along the same lines, his four-seamer, whiffed at 8.2 percent in 2009, has an elite 10 percent whiff rate in 2010 (6 percent MLB average).

The 24 year-old won’t keep that shiny ERA, as his BABIP will rise from .231, he’ll strand fewer than 81.6 percent of base runners and he’ll surrender more than a 4.3 HR/FB%. But Price has whiffed 7.02 per nine innings, walked 2.98 and has a solid 4.02 xFIP.

This is just a theory, but David Price with four pitches would certainly appear to be harder to hit than David Price with just two offerings. Now, batters have to anticipate four-seam, two-seam, curve or slider, as opposed to mainly just four-seam or slider. Price might not yet be a top-of-the-line starter, but he’s getting there.

Scoop these two players up if they’re available–after you give Mom a hug, that is…

Travis Snider, Blue Jays (Owned in 7% of Yahoo leagues)

A 6-0, 235 pound lefty thumper taken with the 14th pick in the 2006 draft, Snider shredded minor league pitching (.304/.382/.533, 11.1 BB%, .229 ISO) while reaching the majors for parts of his age 20 and 21 seasons. While some seem disappointed with his work thus far (a .330 wOBA in 466 career PA), there’s no shame in being a league-average hitter in the majors at ages in which most batters are taking cuts in High-A or Double-A. Take note of a couple of plate discipline trends for Snider over the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons:

2008: 33.3 Outside Swing%, 68.5 Z-Swing%, 70 Contact%
2009: 27.1 Outside Swing%, 71.8 Z-Swing%, 71.3 Contact%
2010: 21.4 Outside Swing%, 72.2 Z-Swing%, 76.6 Contact%

(Outside Swing= percentage of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone; the MLB average has been 25-27% in recent years. Z-Swing= percentage of swings on pitches within the strike zone; the MLB average has been 63-65% recently. The average Contact rate is 80-81%).

Snider is gradually laying off pitcher’s pitches, swinging at more in-zone offerings and making more contact. So far this season, he has batted .227/.318/.433, with an 11.8 percent walk rate, a 23.7 percent punch out rate, a .206 ISO and a .325 wOBA. He has elite power in that pre-slim-down Matt Stairs frame, and he’s controlling the zone well. That’s not to say that everything is perfect: Snider has a 22.7 infield/fly ball percentage that’s basically twice the MLB average. Those weak pop ups are easy outs, and help explain his .257 BABIP. But overall, a 22-year-old slugger who’s taking a more enlightened plate approach is well worth a look.

Tom Gorzelanny, Cubs (12%)

Picked up from the Pirates last summer (along with lefty reliever John Grabow) for RHPs Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and INF Josh Harrison, Gorzelanny lost the faith of Pittsburgh’s new regime. The Bucs’ second-round pick in the ’03 draft compiled an impressive minor league resume (8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 career) and rated #96 on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list prior to 2006. But, after so-so performances in 2006 (4.88 xFIP) and 2007 (4.82 xFIP), Gorzelanny imploded in 2008 on his way to a 5.84 xFIP.

Described by BA as possessing 90-92 MPH gas capable of hitting 95, a slider that could be “unhittable at times” and a rapidly improving changeup in the ’06 Prospect Handbook, Gorzo devolved into a guy with a high-80’s fastball, no slider to speak of and a marginal changeup. Add in injury problems (elbow tendinitis in ’06, shoulder tightness in ’07, and middle finger and shoulder ailments in ’08), and the lefty looked busted.

Things began to change in 2009, however, as Gorzelanny managed a K per inning, 3.26 BB/9 and a 3.73 xFIP in 47 innings (seven starts, 15 ‘pen appearances), mostly for the Cubs. And, given a chance to start full-time in 2010, the 27-year-old is off to a fantastic start.

In 35 innings, Gorzelanny has 9.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and a 3.34 xFIP. That velocity he showed as a Pirates farmhand doesn’t appear to be coming back (89.9 MPH with the fastball), But Gorzo’s using his once-vaunted slider over a quarter of the time and he’s getting a bunch of swings on pitches off the plate (34.6 O-Swing%). His swinging strike rate sits at a healthy 11.6% (8.3% MLB average).

Gorzelanny isn’t likely to keep up this pace, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is quite useful (7.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 3.93 FIP). And look at that ownership rate–Carlos Silva (29% owned) is on more than twice as many fantasy squads as Gorzo. That should soon change.

Mariano Rivera |Yankees

With Mo experiencing some soreness in his left side, Joba Chamberlain got the chance to pick up a couple saves. Rivera’s injury isn’t considered serious, though, and the ageless wonder has a 9/2 K/BB and a 3.60 xFIP in nine innings pitched. Joba, meanwhile, has 9.49 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and a 3.27 xFIP in 12.1 IP. His curve and changeup have essentially been scrapped out of the ‘pen, as Chamberlain has gone to his 93-94 MPH fastball 65 percent and his 86 MPH slider 30 percent.

Joakim Soria |Royals

Soria was smacked around for 2 HR by the Rangers yesterday, but he has still been filthy overall. In 12 IP, The Mexicutioner has 15 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 1.86 xFIP. His outside swing rate (35%) is a career high, as is his 14.5 swinging strike rate. He’s pitching as well as he ever has.

Andrew Bailey |Athletics

The yet-to-be-scored-upon Bailey has a 3.64 xFIP on the year, with 5.06 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 10.2 innings. The low K rate appears to be the product of Bailey placing the ball over the plate so often: his Zone% is 57.8 (48.2 big league average), and hitters have made contact with 87.7 percent of those in-zone offerings (Bailey’s Z-Contact was in the mid-seventies in 2009).

Rafael Soriano |Rays

The new Tampa closer is off to an OK start, with 8.25 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 4.20 xFIP. Curiously, Soriano’s swinging strike rate, 12.2% for his career, is just 7.5% in 2010. His contact rate is up nearly 10 percentage points as well. It’s just 12 innings, but it’s some worth monitoring.

Jonathan Papelbon |Red Sox

After posting a career-worst 3.98 xFIP in 2009, Papelbon is off to a poor start in 2010. In 15 frames, the part-time river dancer has 6.6 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and a 5.23 xFIP. A .204 BABIP has obscured the tepid start (his ERA is 1.80). Why the lack of K’s? Papelbon’s whiff rate on his four-seam fastball has declined from 10.4% in 2009 to 9.2% in 2010, per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool. That ’09 mark, in turn, was a decline from his 12.2% whiff rate in 2008.

Neftali Feliz/Frank Francisco | Rangers

Feliz is still getting most save ops for Texas, though Francisco is in the mix as well. The 22-year-old Feliz has been fantastic thus far, with 11.05 K/9, 1.84 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP. Averaging 96-97 MPH with his heater and mixing in high-70’s curves and high-80’s changeups, Feliz has a 14.4% swinging strike rate. He’s not afraid to challenge hitters: his zone% is 57.1%, about 9 percentage points above the big league average. About the only concern here is the very low ground ball rate (24.3).

Francisco, coming off of a 2009 in which he posted a 3.53 xFIP, has dished out plenty of free passes. In 12.1 IP, he has issued 5.84 BB/9. Hitters haven’t chased his stuff out of the zone: Francisco’s outside swing rate is just 16.1 percent in 2010. With fewer K’s than usual (8.03 K/9), his xFIP is 5.24.

David Aardsma |Mariners

Despite a rise in ERA from 2.52 in 2009 to 3.38 this season, Aardsma actually has a lower xFIP in 2010 (3.62, compared to 4.12 in ’09). He had a very low 4.2 home run per fly ball rate last year, but that has risen to 15.4% so far this year. Prior to reaching the M’s, Aardsma’s control came and went. But he showed signs of improvement last year and currently has a career-best 3.38 BB/9, with a healthy 65.8 first pitch strike percentage.

Bobby Jenks |White Sox

Jenks has had a strange season, as he has posted 12.27 K/9 while getting swinging strikes a mild 8.8 percent. His control hasn’t been as sharp as usual (4.91 BB/9, 45.8 Zone%), but he has yet to serve up a homer after having poor luck on fly balls last year (17 HR/FB%). Instead, Jenks has been plagued by a .428 BABIP this year, which explains the ERA (4.09)/xFIP (2.36) split. What does that all mean? Not much, probably. He’ll likely settle in as a mid-to-high-three’s xFIP pitcher.

Jose Valverde |Tigers

Valverde has experienced a bizarre beginning in Detroit. Traditionally, Papa Grande misses lots of bats (career 10.75 K/9) and gets few grounders (38.4 GB%). With the Tigers, Valverde has 4.26 K/9 and a 71.4% rate of worm burners in 12.2 innings. His swinging strike rate, 13.1% in 2009, is 5.6% in 2010. Valverde’s outside swing rate has been cut in half (32% in ’09, 15.7% in ’10). In terms of pitch selection, the Baseball Info Solutions data says he’s going to a mid-80’s splitter far more often. Pitch F/X data, meanwhile, says he has thrown nothing but fastballs (that seems fishy). What’s going on here, Tigers fans?

Kevin Gregg |Blue Jays

The free agent signee has taken a firm grip on Toronto’s closer gig, whiffing 11.57 batters per nine frames, walking 1.29 and inducing ground balls at a 60 percent clip in 14 innings of work. Gregg’s contact rate is a career-low 71.8 percent, and his outside swing rate is a career-best 31.4. In the past, he used a low-90’s fastball 60-65% of the time. With the Jays, Gregg has gone to an 87-88 MPH cutter over a quarter of the time. The 31-year-old won’t keep up the 1.82 xFIP pace. But his strong performance, backed by a change in approach, bodes well for his future.

Jon Rauch |Twins

Though he won’t be confused with a relief ace, Rauch has done an OK job filling in for Joe Nathan with 6.75 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 4.01 xFIP in 12 innings. As has usually been the case, Rauch is pounding the zone: 52.2 percent of his pitches have been over the plate, and his first pitch strike percentage is 64.6.

Brian Fuentes/Fernando Rodney |Angels

Fuentes, who served a DL stint in April with a strained back suffered while weight lifting, didn’t flex his muscles on the mound last year (4.94 xFIP). In 5.2 IP in 2010, he has a 7/3 K/BB. Speaking of overpaid relievers (cue Homer: “Mmmmm…saaaaves), Fernando Rodney has a shiny ERA (2.63) but a mediocre 4.35 xFIP, with 6.59 K/9 and 4.61 BB/9. Unless there are eight Al’s behind him when he pitches, Rodney’s not keeping the .123 BABIP.

Chris Perez |Indians

The former Cards prospect turned in a promising 2009 season (10.75 K/9 and a 3.98 xFIP), but Perez has been putrid while filling in for Kerry Wood. In 9.1 IP, he has 4.82 K/9, 5.79 BB/9 and a 5.99 xFIP. The control issues aren’t surprising, given his career 4.58 BB/9 in the majors and 6 BB/9 in the minors, but the lack of whiffs is disconcerting. Perez’s swinging strike rate, 9.4% in ’09, is just 4.4%. Wood (4.11 xFIP in 2009) didn’t lock games down last year and his rehab outings haven’t been sharp, but he’s nearing a return from a back injury.

Alfredo Simon |Orioles

With Mike Gonzalez (shoulder) on the shelf and Jim Johnson in Norfolk, the 29-year-old (tomorrow) Simon is getting the chance to close out games. A 6-4, 230 pound righty who previously passed through the Philadelphia, San Francisco and Texas organizations (mostly as a starter), Simon missed nearly all of 2009 following Tommy John surgery. Despite blistering fastball velocity and a hard splitter, Simon has never missed a ton of bats (6.9 K/9 in the minors). He did, however, begin the 2010 season with a 14/5 K/BB in 17 IP at Triple-A.