Seattle Mariners acquired 1B/DH Russell Branyan from the Cleveland Indians for OF Ezequiel Carrera and SS Juan Diaz. Cleveland will either pay what’s left of Branyan’s $2 million salary or send the M’s a PTBNL.

Branyan wasn’t acquired as part of some last-ditch effort to climb back into the AL West race — the Mariners are 14 games back of Texas and have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Rather, Seattle brought the 34-year-old slugger back, in GM Jack Zduriencik’s words, “to give our team every opportunity to be as productive as possible this season, while not harming the long-term plan for the franchise.” Collectively, Mariners first basemen have a major league-worst .260 wOBA in 2010.

Last year, Branyan turned in the best season of his career in the Pacific Northwest. Getting regular playing time, the lefty batter mashed to the tune of .251/.347/.520 in 505 plate appearances and compiled 2.8 WAR. His wOBA was .368, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA was 29 percent above average (129 wRC+). Unfortunately, a bulging disk in Branyan’s back ended his season in late August.

He signed a one-year deal with the Indians this past winter, with a $5 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Branyan began the year on the DL with continued back woes, but he has hit slightly above expectations since returning to the lineup in late April. He’s got a .263/.328/.491 line in 190 PA, with a .355 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ (CHONE and ZiPS both projected a .348 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ prior to the start of the season).

Now that Cleveland has said see you in another life, brotha to Branyan for a fourth time, first base is Matt LaPorta’s spot to lose. The seventh overall selection in the ’07 draft, LaPorta was supposed to be the Tribe’s big prize in the July 2008 CC Sabathia deal. However, LaPorta’s monstrous minor league line (.296/.390/.563, 10.7 BB%, .267 ISO) has given way to a disastrous .240/.301/.377 (.300 wOBA) showing in 300 big league PA over the 2009-2010 seasons. LaPorta was slowed by off-season surgeries on his left hip and left toe, but his power was MIA prior to an early June demotion to Columbus. His career ISO is .137.

It’s just 300 PA split over two years, so we shouldn’t let a half-season’s worth of trips to the plate serve as some definitive judgment of LaPorta’s abilities. Still, his rest-of-season ZiPS (.257/.329/.414, .331 wOBA) is thoroughly uninspiring. He’s in his mid-twenties and down the defensive spectrum. LaPorta will need to significantly outperform that projection to be a useful starter, much less a star.

In addition to giving an erstwhile top prospect a shot at redemption, shipping out Branyan netted the Indians Carrera and Diaz. Carrera, 23, was part of the December ’08 three-team extravaganza involving the Mets (his original club), M’s and Indians. The lithe lefty batter ranked as the 15th-best talent in the Mariners’ system prior to 2010, per Baseball America. The Venezuelan-born Carrera piqued the interest of prospect types last season by batting .337/.441/.416 in the Double-A Southern League. He didn’t show much power (.079 ISO), and his BABIP was .407. But even so, he worked the count very well (14.6 BB%) while earning praise for his center field defense.

Moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2010, Carrera has a .268/.339/.315 triple-slash in 243 PA. Perhaps with pitchers realizing that the worst outcome of giving Carrera a pitch in the zone is a seeing-eye single (.047 ISO), his walk rate has fallen to 8.2%. Odds are, Carrera carves out a career as an extra outfielder who can cover the gaps. His fantasy value might be zilch, though — while he swiped twenty-plus bags each season from 2006-2009, Carrera’s career SB success rate is just 68.9%.

Diaz, 21, is shortstop signed by the M’s out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 6-3, 180 pound switch-hitter has put together a .299/.347/.434 line at high-octane High Desert of the High-A California League over the past two years. He didn’t rate among Seattle’s top 30 prospects leading up to 2010.

Boston Red Sox acquired 2B/OF Eric Patterson from the Oakland Athletics for LHP Fabian Williamson.

Dustin Pedroia’s laser show is on hold for the time being — the second baseman fouled a Jonathan Sanchez fastball off his left foot in the third inning of Friday’s contest against the San Francisco Giants. Pedroia suffered a fracture, and while there’s no firm timetable for a return, early estimates have him missing up to six weeks.

Jed Lowrie (mononucleosis) is on the DL, as is Double-A shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias (bruised hand). Saber favorite Tug Hulett has sunk with the PawSox this season (.168/.293/.302 in 241 PA). Recently recalled Angel Sanchez rates well with the leather according to Total Zone, but he’s a career .279/.334/.351 minor league hitter. As such, the Sox could give Patterson a spin at second (along with Bill Hall) as Pedroia heals.

Patterson, 27, was originally a Cubs prospect taken out of Georgia Tech in the eighth round of the 2004 draft. In July of 2008, Patterson was shipped to Oakland (along with Josh Donaldson, Sean Gallagher and Matt Murton) for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. The lefty hitter holds a career .303/.368/.478 triple-slash in 2,570 career minor league plate appearances. Displaying decent pop (.175 Isolated Power) and adequate strike zone control (9.3 BB%, 19.3 K%), Patterson also stole bases with an 80.6% success rate.

In the majors, Patterson’s got a career .224/.301/.340 line in 378 PA, with a .300 wOBA. Corey’s little brother has walked 10.1% of the time, whiffed 28.4% and has a .116 ISO. He has nabbed bases at a 91.7% clip, with 22 SB in 24 tries. Out of minor league options, Patterson made Oakland’s roster out of spring training but was recently DFA’d to make room for Coco Crisp. ZiPS projects that Patterson will hit .248/.310/.399 for the rest of 2010, with a .320 wOBA. CHONE thinks he’ll bat .261/.322/.411.

Patterson figures to be a slightly below-average MLB hitter who can add some value on the bases. That’s not a bad fill-in for the Sox on such short notice, if he can cut it at second. Patterson, who has big league experience at the keystone and in the outfield, rated as above-average at second in the minors according the Total Zone. His scouting reports in years past were less flattering, however. In its 2008 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America lamented that “despite his athleticism, Patterson has never gotten the hang of playing second base. He doesn’t read balls well off the bat or range well to his right.”

Given his stolen base chops and non-terrible bat, Patterson’s worth a temporary pick-up in AL-only leagues.

Going to the A’s in exchange for Patterson is Williamson, a 21-year-old lefty who is joining his third organization. The 6-2, 175 pounder was acquired by Boston from the Seattle Mariners for David Aardsma prior to the 2009 season. Equipped with a quality curve/changeup combo but sitting in the high-80’s with his heater, Williamson didn’t crack the Sox’ top 30 prospect list this past winter.

Pitching in the Low-A South Atlantic League last season, he had 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, a 37.9 GB% and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 4.37 in 108 innings. Williamson split ’09 between the rotation and the bullpen (16 ‘pen appearances, 12 starts), but he has been a full-time starter in the High-A Carolina League in 2010. On the positive side, his ground ball rate has climbed considerably (54.5 GB%). However, he’s also whiffing 5.5 and walking 4.7 in 65.1 innings, with a 5.05 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP.

Carlos Guillen, Tigers (Owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues)

Guillen endured an injury-plagued 2009 season, missing a huge chunk of time from early May to late July with a left shoulder ailment. His line — .242/.339/.419 in 322 PA, with a .328 wOBA — combined with increasing fragility and a gradual slide down the defensive spectrum led many owners to write off the switch-hitter as over the hill.

Apparently, someone forgot to tell Guillen that he’s toast. That ’09 triple-slash was misleading, as his strong secondary skills (12.1 BB%, .177 Isolated Power) were obscured by a .263 BABIP. Guillen’s expected BABIP was .322. Injury has slowed Guillen again this season (a left hamstring strain that DL’d him from late April to late May), but his BABIP has bounced back to .309, and he’s batting .283/.337/.461 in 166 PA.

The former Astros prospect and Mariner has been unusually aggressive at the dish, hacking at 34.3% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (28.4% MLB average). That explains why he’s walking 7.8% of the time. But Guillen’s hitting with the same power as in ’09 (.178 ISO), and he has become a much more intriguing fantasy option with a move back up the defensive ladder — he’s manning the keystone spot for the Tigers. As a 34-year-old with a history of knee, hamstring, back and shoulder maladies, Guillen’s no sure thing. But a guy with a .278/.353/.459 rest-of-season ZiPS and position eligibility in the outfield and at second base is worth a roster spot.

Dallas Braden, Athletics (41%)

A 24th-round pick out of Texas Tech in the ’04 draft, Braden has achieved some level of fame by telling Alex Rodriguez to get off his mound and then twirling a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 9th. He remains on the wire in most fantasy leagues, though, despite showing considerable improvement.

In 2009, Braden posted a 3.89 ERA in 136.2 innings before a nerve injury in his left foot ended his season in late July. His peripherals suggested he pitched more like a high-four’s ERA starter, however — with 5.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a very low ground ball rate (36.4 GB%), Braden had a 4.80 xFIP. While fewer fly balls become dingers at the Coliseum than most other parks (a HR/FB park factor of 92 from 2006-2009), Braden’s 4.7 HR/FB% looked primed to climb.

It has — Dallas is allowing homers on nine percent of fly balls hit against him. Yet his ERA is actually slightly lower, at 3.83. Unlike in 2009, Braden has done more to earn that mark. Tossing 94 frames so far, the 26-year-old lefty has struck out 5.55 batters per nine innings, walked just 1.53 per nine and has increased his ground ball rate to 42.4%. The result of Braden’s improved control and more neutral GB rate is a 4.06 xFIP. He’s never going to miss bats in the majors at anywhere near the insane clip that he did on the farm, but he’s more than an A-Rod agitator who had his 15 minutes of fame in May — Braden’s an above-average starter.

Scott Feldman has undergone some drastic transformations during the course of his pro career. Texas’ 30th round pick in the 2003 draft was a nondescript reliever on the mend from Tommy John surgery when Orel Hershiser suggested a sidearm delivery in the spring of 2005. After bouncing between Triple-A Oklahoma and Arlington over the ’05 to ’07 seasons, getting lots of grounders out of the ‘pen but struggling to locate at the big league level, Feldman switched to a three-quarters delivery and moved to the starting rotation in 2008.

The results weren’t pretty (a 5.29 ERA in 151.1 innings), but Feldman showed considerable improvement in 2009 while going to a cutter to keep lefty batters from taking him to the woodshed. His ERA dropped to 4.08. The Rangers signed the mop-up man-turned-starter through his arbitration years this past winter, with an option for his first free agent season in 2013.

So far, it looks as though Feldman has turned back into a pumpkin. Tossing 89.2 innings, the 27-year-old righty holds a gruesome 5.32 ERA. What has changed between Feldman’s 2009 breakout and 2010 beat down? Very little, actually.

Last year, Feldman had 5.36 K/9 and 3.08 BB/9 in 189.2 innings. This season, he’s whiffing 5.82 batters per nine and issuing 2.91 BB/9. He induced ground balls 46.8% in ’09, and 44.2% in 2010. There’s nothing dramatically different here — a few more whiffs and a few less worm killers.

Same story with Feldman’s plate discipline stats. His swinging strike rate was 6.5% in 2009, and is 6.4% in 2010 (8-8.5% MLB average). Feldman got a first pitch strike 57.5% last season, and is getting ahead of the hitter 58.9% this year (58% MLB average). His overall contact rate, 84.6% in ’09, is 85.7% in 2010 (81% MLB average). In terms of getting swings on pitches out of the zone, Feldman’s doing a slightly better job this season — his O-Swing was 25% in 2009 (25.1% MLB average that year) and is 29.8% in 2010 (28.3% MLB average).

Feldman’s pitch selection is a bit different (more mid-70’s curves in place of 90-91 MPH fastballs), but the results between his ’09 and ’10 seasons are strikingly similar. Why, then, has his ERA soared more than a Vlad Guerrero home run?

Last season, Feldman benefited from a .276 BABIP. In 2010, balls put in play against him are falling for hits at an absurd clip — his BABIP is .352, trailing only Zach Duke and Randy Wells among qualified big league starters. Also, Feldman’s strand rate has slipped. After leaving 72.8% of base runners high and dry in ’09, his LOB rate is down to 64% this year (70-72% MLB average). He’s not pitching worse with men on base:

Feldman with runners on base

2009: 4.48 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 4.66 xFIP, .252 BABIP
2010: 5.89 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 4.50 xFIP, .338 BABIP

Truth be told, Feldman is neither the rotation stalwart that his shiny 17-win total from 2009 suggests, nor the bust that his 2010 ERA implies. Both seasons, he has been a passable starter — Feldman’s xFIP was 4.49 last season, and is 4.58 in 2010. Despite the wild fluctuations in his surface stats, Feldman’s the same pitcher he was last year.

When the Seattle Mariners acquired Milton Bradley from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Carlos Silva over the winter, most thought the M’s had stolen a high-OBP hitter with decent pop for a washed up starter with a bum shoulder. Yet, it’s Bradley who’s looking like the scrub so far — while a back-from-the-dead Silva has racked up 1.6 WAR, Milton is mired in a deep offensive funk and has -0.2 WAR in 2010.

No one expected Bradley the replicate his feats of strength over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, when he posted a .417 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA 58 percent better than average (158 wRC+). But both CHONE and ZiPS figured he’d top his 2009 numbers produced as a Cub (.257/.378/.397, .345 wOBA, 108 wRC+). CHONE thought he’d bat .262/.368/.427, upping his wOBA to .353 and his wRC+ to 117. ZiPS projected a .254/.371/.421 line, with a .355 wOBA and a 118 wRC+.

Suffice it to say, Bradley’s bat is falling well short of those expectations. In 205 plate appearances, the switch-hitter has a feeble .207/.299/.346 triple-slash and a .291 wOBA. Safeco Field saps offense, suppressing runs by six percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 (per the Bill James Handbook). But even so, Bradley’s offensive has been, well, offensive — his wRC+ is 80.

The first thing most will point to regarding the 32-year-old’s numbers is his .263 BABIP. And he has been unlucky to an extent — Bradley’s expected BABIP is .303. That’s still below his .319 career BABIP, as well as his BABIP projections from CHONE (.318) and ZiPS (.309).

Why’s that? Bradley’s batted ball distribution is different this season, and the change has not been positive. He’s hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls than usual, with a 35.5 GB% (42.9 GB% from 2007-2009) and a 45.5 FB% (35.7 FB% from ’07 to ’09). Those extra fly balls are weakly hit, as Bradley’s infield/fly ball rate has spiked to 18.2% (8.4 IF/FB% from ’07 to ’09, 7-8% MLB average). Infield flies are basically automatic outs, so the increase in pop ups helps explain the low BABIP.

In addition to hitting the ball up the elevator shaft often, Bradley’s not controlling the strike zone quite as well as he usually does. While still patient, he’s chasing more pitches out of the strike zone (relative to the MLB average):

The extra swings on off-the-plate pitches contribute to his lower-than-projected walk rate of 10.2% (12.8 BB% from CHONE, 14.5 BB% from ZiPS).

On pitches within the zone, Bradley’s coming up empty at the highest rate of his career. His Z-Contact% is 81.4. For reference, his Z-Contact over the 2007-2009 seasons was 82.6%, and the MLB average is about 88%. His overall contact rate is 73.8% (75.8% from ’07 to ’09, 81% MLB average). In addition to making less contact, Milton’s getting caught looking often. According to StatCorner, Bradley’s percentage of PA ending in a called strikeout is 9.3% this season, while the MLB average is 4.5% and his 2007-2009 rate was in the six percent range. Not surprisingly, his K rate is a career-high 31.3%. Whiffs aren’t the end of the world for a hitter who works deep counts and makes things happen when he does put the ball in play, but it’s been a while since Bradley displayed more than middling power — his ISO in 678 PA since the beginning of 2009 is .140.

Bradley should perform better in the months to come, particularly if he shows his trademark plate discipline and limits the pop ups. ZiPS projects a .240/.352/.390 line, with a .338 wOBA. It’s hard to be overly enthusiastic, though. Beside the ever-present injury risk associated with him, Bradley no longer comes with the promise of elite secondary skills — he’s a singles-and-doubles hitter in a park that smiles upon pitchers.

Tampa Bay Rays righty James Shields is seemingly turning in a mediocre performance in 2010. The 28-year-old owns a 6-7 record and has a middling 4.55 ERA, a combination that has led 11 percent on Yahoo fantasy players to pull the plug on the changeup artist. Is Shields struggling? Not really. But how bullish you are on his numbers improving depends upon your ERA estimator of choice.

In 99 innings pitched, Tampa’s 16th round pick in the 2000 draft has 8.36 K/9, 2 BB/9 and a 42.3% ground ball rate. That K rate is well above his career average of 7.29 K/9, while he’s basically matching his career totals in terms of walks and worm burners (1.94 BB/9 and 43.5 GB%, respectively).

Not much has changed in terms of his pitch selection or plate discipline stats. Shields is still leaping ahead in the count, getting first pitch strikes 61% of the time (60.4% career average, 58% MLB average). His contact rates aren’t drastically different, though he’s actually getting slightly fewer whiffs than normal — his swinging strike rate is 9.1% (10% career average, 8-8.5% MLB average) and his contact rate is 81% (78.8% career average, 81% MLB average). The cause of Shields’ increased K rate isn’t whiffs, but called strikes — his called strike percentage is 17.8% this season, compared to 16.7-17% over the past few years (17% MLB average). Called Strike% has a lower correlation with K rate than swinging strike rate, so it seems likely that Shields punch out rate comes back toward his career average (7.29 per nine). Zips projects 7.23 K/9 for the rest of 2010.

No huge, negative changes to this point. So, why the run-of-the-mill ERA for Shields? For one, he’s got a .339 BABIP this season, compared to a .310 career average. Opponents have hit a good deal of line drives against Shields this season — 21.5% (the MLB average is 18.9%, according to StatCorner). Two interpretations of that number come to mind.

On one hand, line drives falls for hits on balls in play more than 73 percent of the time, so that certainly contributes to the higher-than-usual BABIP. On the other hand, line drive rate is a rather volatile stat, and Shields’ career 19 LD% is right around the big league average. That suggests batters don’t typically scorch the ball against him. If his line drive rate comes back toward that career rate, his BABIP should fall. Shields has also allowed home runs on fly balls hit 14.4% time, well above his career 11.5% figure and the 11% MLB average.

Shields’ line drive and homer rate help explain the dichotomy between his tERA and xFIP. His tERA (tRA put on the same scale as ERA), is 4.43. tERA assigns an average run value to batted ball outcomes like line drives, ground balls, outfield fly balls and infield fly balls, as well as run values for K’s, walks, HBP’s and home runs. Liners and home runs obviously have a high run value, so a pitcher giving up lots of them like Shields is going to get dinged. Meanwhile, his xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is actually a career-best 3.50. xFIP sees strong peripherals and poor luck on fly balls, and expects considerable improvement.

Personally, I’d take the middle ground between those two figures. It’s unlikely that Shields allows so many liners or homers per fly ball hit against him moving forward. But it’s also unlikely that he continues to punch out so many batters. ZiPS thinks he’ll split the middle, too, with a rest-of-season FIP of 3.91. Shields is well worth owning in all formats — if he’s on the wire, snag him and expect a high-three’s ERA for the rest of 2010.

Baltimore Orioles acquired DH/1B?/3B?/OF?/C? Jake Fox from the Oakland Athletics for RHP Ross Wolf and cash.

In the article linked to above, Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail touts Fox’s “roster flexibility” — the former Cubs prospect, acquired by the A’s in a trade over the winter and recently DFA’d, has experience in the infield and outfield corners, as well as at catcher. It’s technically true that Fox can man those spots, in that he’ll strap on the gear and squat behind the plate if asked, or stand at one of those corner positions and pray that he doesn’t get a screaming liner or have to run one down in the gap, but his limited defensive prowess leaves him as a man without a position.

The A’s picked up Fox for his bat — the career .293/.357/.528 minor league hitter posted a .259/.311/.468 triple-slash with the Cubs in 2009, with a .332 wOBA in 241 plate appearances. Fox showed plenty of pop (.208 Isolated Power), but his lack of patience was glaring. The 6-0, 210 pound right batter chased 37.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25.1% MLB average). Not surprisingly, Fox got behind in the count regularly (65.6 first pitch strike%, 58.2% MLB average) and walked just 5.8% of the time.

Unfortunately, Fox took his hacking even further during his brief Oakland tenure. He ventured out of the zone 47.5% (28.3% MLB average), putting the ball in play on the first pitch or getting behind 0-and-1 70.1% (58.4% MLB average). In 107 PA with the A’s, Fox batted .212/.262/.323, putting up a .262 wOBA and a .111 ISO.

What can we expect from Fox for the rest of 2010? ZiPS projects a .253/.313/.438 line (.330 wOBA), while CHONE sees a .256/.313/.440 offensive showing. Just where he plays in Baltimore remains to be seen — manager Juan Samuel said he’ll likely come off the bench, playing mostly 1B and LF while occasionally spelling Matt Wieters at catcher. Fox’s addition may well spell the end of Garrett Atkins’ nightmarish stay (-1 WAR) in Baltimore.

The Orioles, woefully out of contention, do have a fluid roster situation. Players like Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton and Miguel Tejada could be dangled in trades. If some O’s vets find new teams, Fox could see increased PT. Then again, Felix Pie (back) figures to return from the DL sometime in early July, and while 3B Josh Bell isn’t enjoying a banner season at Triple-A Norfolk (.273/.320/451), the club could choose to bring him up to the majors later this summer. 1B Brandon Snyder is a lukewarm prospect (.251/.320/.366 at Triple-A over the past two seasons), but I suppose he could factor in as well.

Given Fox’s potential to take on an expanded role while qualifying at several positions, he’s worth monitoring in AL-only leagues. However, he’s a wreck at the plate right now and doesn’t project as more than a league-average batter. Fox’s ultra-aggressive, high-power approach comes at the expense of reaching base regularly. He should probably stay on the waiver wire for now.

Max Scherzer, Tigers

Max was a mess prior to a mid-May demotion to Triple-A Toledo, but he has been dealing since his vociferous, 14 K return to the majors on May 30th. Scherzer’s fastball velocity has climbed:

Scherzer’s averaging 94.1 MPH since his recall, compared to 91.8 MPH prior. What’s interesting is that his increase in whiffs comes largely from his secondary stuff — the whiff rate on his fastball has improved (6.3% since his recall, 5.2% before his demotion; 6% MLB average), but his slider whiff rate is up to 20.3% from 14% (13.6% MLB average), and his changeup whiff rate has climbed to 20.4% from 10.5% (12.6% MLB average). It’s entirely possible that the increased zip on Scherzer’s fastball makes his slider and change more effective — pitches don’t exist in a vacuum, independent of one another.

Overall, Scherzer now has 8.26 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and a 4.17 xFIP in 73 innings pitched. However, his early season struggles and ugly 5.67 ERA (the result of a .332 BABIP, 64.1 LOB% and a 14 HR/FB%) have scared off many owners — Scherzer is rostered in just 34% of Yahoo leagues. ZiPS projects a 4.07 FIP with 8.59 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9 for the rest of 2010. This is a great buy-low opportunity.

Chris Young, Diamondbacks

Young had a disastrous season at the plate in 2009, batting .212/.311/.400 with a .314 wOBA and an 85 wRC+. Those looking for a silver lining pointed to Young’s career-high 11.8% walk rate, solid power (.187 ISO) and low .268 BABIP. However, he whiffed 30.7% and basically earned that low BABIP due to an absurdly high infield/fly ball rate. Young popped the ball up 22.4% last season, nearly tripling the major league average. Those weakly hit infield flies are gimme outs, and help explain why Young’s expected BABIP was just .276.

This season, Young has cut his IF/FB rate to a much more palatable 9.3%, and his punchout rate is down to 23.6%. He’s hitting .278/.341/.483 in 288 PA, good for a .366 wOBA and a 122 wRC+. As an added bonus, Young has already swiped 12 bases this season and is on pace for a career-best 28 SB.

While Young has certainly been better offensively this season, we probably shouldn’t expect him to suddenly keep this pace from here on out. His BABIP so far is .319, compared to a .307 xBABIP. And, while the big drop in his pop ups is a great sign, infield/fly ball rate doesn’t become reliable until a batter takes about 500 trips to the plate. ZiPS projects .247/.321/.456 for the rest of the season, with a .343 wOBA and a .285 BABIP. Young could best that line if he can keep on limiting the infield flies.

Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers

Injuries have been a problem for the former Hiroshima Toyo Carp ace since he came stateside in 2008 (shoulder tendinitis in ’08, an oblique strain, a sizzling line drive to the head and a herniated disc in his neck in ’09), but he’s been highly effective when on the mound — his career xFIP is 3.79.

This year, Kuroda’s got 7.13 K/9, 2.45 BB/9 and a 3.68 xFIP in 88.1 frames, keeping the ball down with a 53.5 GB% to boot. The 35-year-old righty is going to his 92-93 MPH fastball less often this season — about 52%, compared to 66% in 2009. In place of the heater, he’s relaying more on a mid-80’s slider/cutter (about 37%) while also mixing in high-80’s splitters (11%). All of his pitches are getting more whiffs than the big league average — 7.7% with the fastball, 14.4% for the slider and 18.1% for the splitter (16.1% MLB average). Kuroda’s still on the waiver wire in 23% of Yahoo leagues, but he’s a rock-solid starter when healthy.

Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays?

Demoted and then DFA’d by the Jays, Encarnacion’s future in Toronto is up in the air — another team could claim him and what’s remaining of his $4.75 million salary (he’s arbitration-eligible next season, too), though GM Alex Anthopoulos doubts that’ll happen.

The 27-year-old Encarnacion, picked up as part of the Scott Rolen swap last summer, is having a bizarre 2010 season. In between a DL stint for a right shoulder injury, he has hit .200/.298/.467 in 141 PA, with a .267 ISO and a wacky-low .167 BABIP.

During his big league tenure, Encarnacion has a .257/.339/.449 triple-slash, a .344 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. He has drawn walks at a slightly above-average rate (9.3 BB%), and he’s got power (.193 ISO). He has generally had a below-average BABIP because he pops the ball up often (16 IF/FB%). Encarnacion is not a lost cause at the plate, but the problem lies on the other side of his game.

The former Red has proven to be a ghastly defender at third base, with a career -12.4 UZR at the position. He could revive his career if he proves to be a capable corner outfielder, but he’s likely going to be a drag defensively at whatever position he mans, and his bat isn’t good enough to pick up the slack. DH’s with modestly useful lumber don’t stick around the majors.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds

On the surface, the guitar-strumming righty with the high leg kick is having another season of innings-munching adequacy — a 4.53 ERA in 93.1 frames. However, Arroyo’s peripheral stats aren’t music to anyone’s ears. He’s got 4.63 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 5.20 xFIP. He’s not putting many pitches within the zone (46.1%, compared to a 47.2% MLB average) and his contact rate has climbed to 85.6% (it was 84.7% last season and around the 81% MLB average from 2006-2008). Remember how Scherzer is owned in just 34% of Yahoo leagues? Well, Arroyo’s 6-3 record has earned him a roster spot in 36% of leagues.

Unless Arroyo picks up the pace K-wise and displays his characteristically quality control, he’s going to start getting hit harder — he’s not likely to keep a .266 BABIP or a 7.1 HR/FB% all season long.

Ian Desmond, Nationals

Washington’s third-round selection in the 2004 draft is falling short of pre-season expectations. Both CHONE (.265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA) and ZiPS (.270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA) gave forecasts of league-average hitting, but Desmond currently sits at .256/.290/.388, with a .296 wOBA.

A major reason for the 24-year-old’s sub-.300 wOBA is his huge strike zone. Desmond’s swinging at 34.5% of pitches thrown outside of the zone (28.3% MLB average), which has often put him in the pitcher’s clutches. The Nats’ shortstop has a 63.5 first pitch strike percentage, far exceeding the 58.4% big league average. Not surprisingly, Desmond’s walk rate is just 4.1%. He’ll need to show a better eye to avoid being a liability at the plate.

Toronto Blue Jays recalled INF Jarrett Hoffpauir from Triple-A Las Vegas.

A former St. Louis Cardinals farmhand claimed off waivers by the Jays during the off-season, Hoffpauir can hit. He’s a career .288/.366/.427 batter in the minors, including a .293/.365/.448 line in nearly 1,400 PA at the Triple-A level. Hoffpauir draws a decent number of free passes (10.4 BB%), rarely punches out (9.2 K%) and while no one will mistake him for a power hitter, he manages not to get totally bullied at the plate (.133 ISO). Prior to 2010, ZiPS projected a .264/.331/.394 showing at the major league level (.323 wOBA) for the 27-year-old, while CHONE had a .272/.349/.402 forecast (.332 wOBA).

If Hoffpauir could capably man an up-the-middle position, a league-average bat could make him a passable starter. However, the 5-10, 190 pounder isn’t well-regarded with the leather by either scouts (Baseball America called his speed, range and arm fringy in 2008) or the stats (Total Zone rates him poorly at second base). Hoffpauir also played some third base with the 51’s this season, and that’s the position where he’ll try to crack the lineup with Toronto following the club’s decision to DFA Edwin Encarnacion. He could have some short-term fantasy value in AL-only leagues if the Jays opt against moving Jose Bautista to third more frequently.

Houston Astros recalled 3B Chris Johnson from Triple-A Round Rock.

Houston’s fourth-round pick in the 2006 draft, Johnson will mercifully take over for Pedro Feliz at the hot corner. Feliz, 35, has been a black hole on a roster full of them — with his normally stellar D rating poorly and his slack bat entering a whole new realm of futility (.237 wOBA), Feliz has been nearly a win and a half worse than a replacement-level player.

Which brings us back to Johnson. To say that he’s Houston’s best internal option at third base is sort of a backhanded compliment, akin to being the most articulate Hilton sister or the most popular BP executive. The 25-year-old holds a career .277/.315/.429 line in 1,800+ PA in the minors. Johnson doesn’t work the count much (5.1 BB%), and he has generally shown just mid-range power (.152 ISO).

To be fair, he has hit with some force at Triple-A this season (.329/.362/.570 in 163 PA), but his overall performance record just doesn’t offer much to get excited about. According to Minor League Splits, Johnson’s 2008 season split between Double-A Corpus Christi and Round Rock translates to a .246/.276/.351 big league triple-slash. His ’09 season in the PCL equates to a .239/.271/.379 line, and even that 2010 work comes to .272/.297/.429. Johnson’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.245/.280/.360) is similarly bleak. Even if you’re desperate, you’re best off looking elsewhere.

CF Nyjer Morgan entered 2010 as a coveted fantasy pick. The former Pirates prospect, shipped along with LHP Sean Burnett to Washington last summer for OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Joel Hanrahan, batted .307/.369/.388 in 2009. With a .340 wOBA, 42 steals and superb defense, the man who dubbed himself “Tony Plush” posted a 4.9 WAR season. His 2010 pre-season ADP, according to KFFL, was 122nd overall.

So far, Tony Plush has kinda been a bust. Realistically, fantasy players should have expected at least a mild downturn at the plate — Morgan had a .355 BABIP last season. Granted, he’s a burner, as his career 7.4 Speed Score in the majors and .355 minor league BABIP from 2005-2008 attest, but both CHONE and ZiPS figured he wouldn’t be quite as prolific on balls put in play:

ZiPS: .281/.339/.359, .334 BABIP, .318 wOBA
CHONE: .281/.345/.367, .332 BABIP, .321 wOBA

Unfortunately, Morgan has fallen well short of those projections: he’s got a .248/.310/.326 triple-slash in 287 PA, with a .283 wOBA that puts him in the same company as out-making luminaries like Orlando Cabrera and Jason Kendall. What has changed between Morgan’s breakout ’09 and heartbreaking 2010? Not much, actually:

2009: 7.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, .081 ISO, 19.4 LD%, 54.3 GB%
2010: 7.0 BB%, 17.4 K%, .078 ISO, 24.1 LD%, 53.9 GB%

Morgan’s walking slightly less and punching out a bit more, with just about no change in his “power” or ground ball rate. His rate of line drives hit is actually much higher this season. Yet, his BABIP has fallen from last year’s .355 to just .300 in 2010. Nyjer’s expected BABIP, based on his rate of homers, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders, is .341. That’s much closer to those pre-season forecasts, and I think we can safely conclude that Morgan has been unlucky on balls in play this season. He’s been more of a .290/.350/.370-type hitter than the absolute cipher on display so far.

So, Morgan should bounce back at the plate — his ZiPS rest-of-season line is more circumspect, but still calls for improvement (.273/.330/.352, .309 wOBA). But there’s another area of his game that’s been off this season — Morgan has been a liability on the base paths.

Last year, he swiped bases at a 71.2 percent clip (42 for 59). In 2010, Nyjer has 15 steals, and he’s on pace for a mid-thirties SB total. However, he has been caught red-handed ten times. That gives him a paltry 60% success rate, and he has also been picked off three times already, after getting caught napping four times last season. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Morgan has cost the Nats about three runs on steal attempts this season. So what, you say. But, Morgan costs your team potential runs, too, when he heads back to the dugout with his head hung low after getting gunned down at second or third.

While Morgan has surely drawn the ire of many who expended a mid-round pick on the basis of his wheels, this might be a good time for others to pick him up at a discount. He’s no great shakes offensively, but he’ll almost assuredly improve at the plate. And, it’s very likely that a 29-year-old player with a career 75% stolen base success rate in the minors and a 70% major league success rate from 2007-2009 won’t continue to be such a hazard when he tries to nab a bag. Morgan’s no fantasy stud, but he should hit passably and provide speed-starved players with more efficient base thievery from this point forward.