Jair Jurrjens

The continuing saga of Dr. Jurrjens and Mr. Hyde is set to begin again Wednesday as Jurrjens is set to come off the disabled list and start against the Giants. Jurrjens was positively dominant in the first half, winning 12 of his 16 starts while posting an ERA under 2.00 and WHIP of just 1.07. His success came largely without strikeouts — he had the second fewest strike outs of anyone with double-digit wins — which is part of the reason his regression was so brutal in the second half.

Jurrjens’ BABIP of .260 was unsustainable, though as Jonah Keri noted, it may not have been as far out of line as it seemed. Nevertheless, Jurrjens was not only getting lucky on the balls put into play, he was also allowing a ton of balls to be put into play. When his luck began to wear out, his low strikeout rate exacerbated the problem, and he was unable to turn in a quality start in three of his four starts since the All-Star Break. It’s unlikely that Jurrjens’ first half performance is repeatable, but he isn’t as bad as his last four starts would indicate either. The truth, as it so often does, lies somewhere between the extremes.

In his four starts since the All-Star break, Jurrjens’ WHIP skyrocketed not only because of his BABIP coming back to career levels, but also because of a walk-rate that nearly doubled. Luck is what it is, but if Jurrjens wants to get close to his previous level of effectiveness, he needs to keep the extra runners off base. It goes without saying that more strikeouts and fewer walks are the keys to effectiveness, but for Jurrjens, they’re the difference between being a solid SP2 and being a fantasy also-ran down the stretch.

He gets a soft test Wednesday, so activate him without too much concern, but do keep an eye on his walks and his strikeouts going forward.

Javier Vazquez

I get the sense that Vazquez has burned a lot of bridges with fantasy owners, either in previous seasons or with his first 10 starts of 2011. I can’t blame owners for dumping him in May, after all, he had more earned runs to his name than strikeouts on June 1, but things have taken a turn for the better. Since the break, Vazquez has struck out nearly a batter an inning, and has given up more than 3 ER just once: His disaster start against the Padres on July 21.

That outing against the Padres — where he should have thrived instead of getting shelled — is emblematic of why Vazquez is owned in just 37 percent of Yahoo leagues and just 15 percent of ESPN leagues: All other things equal, a consistent player is vastly preferable to an inconsistent one, and Vazquez has been tremendously inconsistent. All pitchers carry some risk, but there aren’t many out there who offer the same range of possible production as he does.

If you need a spot starter for someone like Cole Hamels, Jonathan Sanchez, or Tommy Hanson, Vazquez is palatable in small doses, but recommending him for the rest of the season feels like a game of Russian roulette. The strikeouts aren’t a mirage, but his overall line is definitely propped up by a .262 second half BABIP. Though it is worth mentioning that his BABIP for the year is right at his career average, I would expect him to be closer to that .296 mark going forward than .262.

While upcoming starts against the Padres, Reds, and Mets don’t seem unduly arduous for Vazquez, it was exactly this kind of start that tripped him up last time. Nevertheless, if you need strikeouts, he’s a worthwhile risk for now, especially with his next start coming at PetCo.

First things first: While he isn’t really a fantasy-relevant player anymore, congratulations to Jim Thome for hitting his 600th home run. PEDs get too much credit for their role in the power explosion of the “steroid era,” but to accomplish such a tremendous feat without even a hint of controversy is a testament to Thome’s longevity and raw power.

Onward to the Wire!

Delmon Young (Yahoo: 42 percent owned, ESPN: 37 percent owned)

Before Thome’s pair of bombs stole the spotlight, the story out of Detroit was Young hitting a home run in his first PA as a Tiger off of former teammate Francisco Liriano. Young’s movement out of pitcher-friendly Target Field would seem to work in his — and by extension his owners’ — favor. However, as a visitor, Young hit a rather pedestrian .272/.329/.360 at Comerica Park with just 2 HR in 140 PAs, so it isn’t as though he’s about to be playing a lot more games at a personal launching pad. If Young gains any scheduling advantage, it’s minimal and comes from the fact that he’ll face Twins pitching instead of Tiger pitching, but the two teams have fairly similar opponents remaining.

So Young isn’t adding much value in his move, but does he have enough intrinsic value to pick up anyway? Young’s last two weeks might give you that feeling. In addition to hitting three of his five home runs since August 1, Young has posted a solid line of .303/.410/.576 and in the month since he came off the disabled list, he has hit .294/.363/.461. While success in July is par for the course for Young, his effectiveness so far in August is somewhat counter to his career norms. For his career, Young’s OPS falls from .899 in July to .733 in August, so if it feels like Young is walking on air ala Wile E. Coyote with his recent performance, you’re not far off.

If you’re looking to replace someone like Logan Morrison in mixed, Young isn’t a bad play, but don’t make the mistake the Twins made and expect the world from him. He’s not going to kill your average and has a little power upside, but that’s about it. If you need consistent power, look elsewhere.

Mike Carp (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 62 percent owned)

In his 106 PAs prior to this season, Carp had hit one home run in the majors. Since August 1, he has hit four as part of a month-long hitting streak that has given him a line of .389/.421/.685 for the month and has raised his season OPS from .792 to .920. Carp hit 21 HR in 66 games for the Triple-A Tacoma this season after hitting 29 at the same level last year, so the power isn’t a mirage, though I somewhat doubt he’ll continue at quite this pace.

It isn’t just the power that’s making Carp a compelling option, as he has just two games without a hit since the All-Star break. He’s contributing solidly in three categories and even adding a few runs.

Even if Carp cools off a bit — a development that shouldn’t come as a surprise when it comes; his second-half BABIP is .435 — his move from the bottom of the order to the clean-up spot should help him continue to get RBI chances, something he didn’t see much of in June or early July. He’s definitely playable in AL-Only and deep mixed, but because he lacks a major league track record, it would be wise to keep a close eye on him if you choose to roster him. His regression could come swiftly and with little warning, but for now, it’s worth riding the hot hand.

Rick Ankiel (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 15 percent owned)

After an extremely pedestrian first half, Ankiel seems to have found his groove at the top of the Nationals’ batting order. He has hit .290/.342/.536 since the All-Star break, but has really turned it on after the trade deadline, hitting .308/.357/.692 with 4 HR since August 1. Of the 18 games left this month, the Nationals play 10 at home — where Ankiel has hit six of his seven home runs — plus another six in hitter-friendly Cincinnati and Philadelphia, giving him a good chance to continue his torrid month.

If you can spare the extra bench spot, Ankiel has large enough platoon split to be worth acting on. His OPS drops nearly .200 points against lefties, which makes him look far less interesting than he is against righties. If you can’t platoon him, he’s still worth a grab, especially in NL-Only, but temper your expectations when he faces Cole Hamels.

Edwin Encarnacion (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 78 percent owned)

Right from the outset, if you play in a league that counts defense, Encarnacion might not be your best pick-up. E-5 isn’t his nickname for no reason. Encarnacion owns one of the AL’s five highest OPS marks in the second half thanks to a line of .361/.475/.627 line, but he managed to find even a higher gear over the last 10 days, hitting .423/.559/.654 in August. The one knock on his month so far is that he has just one RBI and that came on his only home run so far. However, it’s almost unthinkable that he wouldn’t start driving in his teammates if he stays this hot for a while longer.

Encarnacion’s BABIP this month is .435, so he’s definitely finding the holes in the defense, but his yearly mark is an entirely unremarkable .307. So, while I think some regression is likely, it isn’t the sword of Damocles hanging over his head. Toronto plays a fairly favorable schedule the rest of the month, but they get the Red Sox and Yankees for 11 games in September, so, unless the divisional and wild card races are already sewn up early, Encarnacion could face a tough slate of pitching. Having an alternative in mind if he starts to struggle is wise.

Jason Kubel (Yahoo: 51 percent owned, ESPN: 93 percent owned)

On production alone, I like Kubel a lot. In the 18 games since he returned from the DL, Kubel has hit .319/.382/.565 with 4 HR and 13 RBI, which is more than respectable from a player with his paltry ownership. He’s been one of the Twins’ most consistent hitters over the last nine games, hitting .387/.406/.774 since August began — in fact, his 774 SLG would be the team’s fifth highest OPS this month.

While I think his consistent contributions keep him in the lineup, with Justin Morneau rejoining the team on Friday, the Twins are simply overfilled at three of the four corner positions and Kubel’s not exactly an option at third base. Jim Thome is rightly going to get plenty of playing time in his quest for his 600th home run, keeping Kubel from being the full-time DH, and Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Ben Revere, and Kubel are all competing for time in the outfield corners — especially since Alexi Casilla’s return means that they won’t simply stash Cuddyer at 2B to alleviate some of the pressure.

For the team, it’s a nice problem to have, but it’s really just a mess for owners. I think his production is going to be good enough going forward to be worth the possibility that he may not play every day, but do keep a close eye on the lineup, especially until Thome hits his 600th.

Roy Oswalt (Yahoo: 87 percent owned, ESPN: 96 percent owned)

Oswalt’s Sunday start wasn’t good, but neither was it a complete disaster. He allowed far too many baserunners against an offense that hasn’t always punished such generosity, which is why there’s a justifiably fair amount of weeping and gnashing of teeth over what was technically a quality start. Making any sort of grand judgment after one start is foolish — even more so when it’s his first start off the disabled list — but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to learn from Oswalt’s effort against the Giants.

Matt Swartz noted during Oswalt’s start that the righty’s velocity looked low, which was part of the reason the Giants had little trouble squaring him up. Oswalt’s average fastball velocity this season is 91.2 mph, a full tick slower than it was last year, which is somewhat worrisome on its own. If he drops even further form there, he could be in real trouble. While he doesn’t live or die by high velocity, Oswalt isn’t going to thrive with a fastball that tops out at the same speed he averaged last year.

His drop in speed could well be directly related to his time on the disabled list, so it bears watching in his next few outings as he resumes his normal turns through the rotation. Assuming the Phillies stick to their current rotation, Oswalt should make back-to-back starts against the Nationals, who should provide a fair test of Oswalt’s remaining stuff. The decision to start or sit him is yours, but I’d wait until he’s made at least one more start before dropping him outright.

Stephen Strasburg (Yahoo: 35 percent owned, ESPN: 16 percent owned)

Last summer, as he awaited his call to the majors, everything start Strasburg made was front-page material, and while his rehab starts aren’t generating quite as much publicity, it’s pretty close to the same depth of coverage. His first outing was a good showing; the numbers are pretty much immaterial — ok, getting four of his five outs via strikeouts is pretty nice — it’s the fact that he felt good during and after the start that even borders on relevancy.

While there’s a good chance Strasburg will see some time in the majors in September, make no mistake, it is not a given that he will. Each start will see Strasburg ramp up his pitch count and if at any point he looks like he’s not coping well with the increase, the Nationals aren’t likely to push him through it. The risk is simply too much greater than the reward at this point in the season, which is big reason I feel that adding him now is prematurely speculative. If he makes 3-4 successful rehab starts, and you foresee needing a spot start in September, then perhaps he bears consideration.

Jordan Zimmermann owners should be especially cognizant of Strasburg’s progress through the minors, as there is a non-zero chance that Zimmermann will be shutdown at around the same time that Strasburg is ready to come up. However, with Brad Peacock already performing well in Triple-A, there’s no guarantee that Strasburg will be the one who replaces Zim in the rotation. As Zimmermann’s cap becomes a more pressing, the situation should become clearer, but if you know you’re going to need to replace one Nats pitcher, there’s a good chance another good option will soon become available to you. It just may not be the one you’re expecting.

Dexter Fowler (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 38 percent owned)

We all have our fantasy vices, guys we draft too early or hold on to too long in a vague hope they’ll fulfill their promise. Fowler is one of mine, but he finally seems to be making good on his potential. Since the All-Star break, Fowler has hit .322/.426/.522 and, seeming to answer one of the biggest knocks against him, has stolen six bases. His season line is propped up by a .377 BABIP, which would seem to scream regression, but Fowler’s career average is an already-elevated .345. So while he may still regress, the drop isn’t likely to be as steep as it may seem at first blush. Fowler is still available in most leagues and is definitely an option in NL-Only or even deep mixed.

Trayvon Robinson (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 1 percent owned)

Robinson is getting a lot of press lately, for being a coup for Mariners’ GM Jack Zduriencik as well as for his defensive prowess, but don’t get caught up in the buzz. The problem that Jeff Sullivan highlighted — Robinson’s high strikeout rate — looks as though it isn’t going away any time soon, as he has struck out in five of his 12 plate appearances. It’s a perilously small sample, I don’t expect him to strike out in 42 percent of his PAs going forward, but as he continues to impress in the field and hit the odd home run, consider this a call to patience. Late-round sleeper next year? Quite possibly. Good option for the last two months of this season? Unlikely.

Denard Span (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 32 percent owned)

This time last week, Span was breathing a sigh of relief, having survived swirling deadline rumors that had him all but signed, sealed, and delivered to the Nationals. Span came off the disabled list last Tuesday for the first time since sustaining a concussion on June 6, when he was hitting .294/.361/.385 with four steals. In his week back in the land of the healthy, Span hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with a line of .042/.080/.042 in his six games. What has been interesting is that, despite almost never having the opportunity to do so, Span swiped a pair of bases, raising his season total to six.

I can’t recommend picking up Span right now in any format; he just doesn’t yet look fully recovered at the plate. However, if the Twins are committed to giving him the green light as often as they did with Ben Revere, Span could rack up solid stolen base numbers the rest of the way — provided he can start getting on base. It should be noted that even when he’s fully healthy, Span holds far more value in OBP leagues than traditional AVG leagues.

Chase Headley (Yahoo: 26 percent owned, ESPN: 47 percent owned)

Headley looks like he’s going to miss the majority of the rest of the season with the broken left pinkie he sustained on Aug. 7. Viable replacement include Justin Turner (owned in 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 20 percent of ESPN leagues), Ty Wigginton (40 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 39 percent of ESPN leagues), and Danny Valencia (29 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 50 percent of ESPN leagues). Valencia had a strong month of July (.303/.336/.468 with 4 HR), but has just six singles so far in August. Wigginton is hitting well so far, .316/.418/.439 since the break and .412/.545/.588 in August, and may be the best short-term option to replace Headley if he’s available to you.

The voices from on high have heard your plea for updated NL pitcher ranks and I shall deliver them to you. The tiers are sorted by how great it would be to have one of these things in your town.

The Pyramids of Giza

Roy Halladay
Clayton Kershaw
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee

These guys have given you a strong season from first pitch on and they don’t show signs of breaking down anytime soon. While Phillies fans are obviously rooting for their team to win the NL East by as many games as possible, owners who are relying on one or more of Halladay, Hamels, and Lee might quietly root for the Braves to keep the division close. A large lead increases the likelihood that the top of the rotation will be rested down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

On a night when Ricky Romero was a Desmond Jennings‘ home run away from a no-hitter, when the White Sox were thankful that the rain saved them from three more innings of Phil Hughes, and when David Huff held down the potent Red Sox’s offense only to be being demoted for his troubles, perhaps the most surprising pitching line came courtesy of the Angels’ Ervin Santana. The right-hander shutdown the Twins en route to the first complete game following a no-hitter since Tommy Greene did it for the 1991 Phillies, for a line of 9 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K.

It isn’t at all uncommon for a pitcher to struggle after a no-hitter or perfect game: Francisco Liriano lasted just three innings against the Tigers after throwing a season high 123 pitches in no-hitting the White Sox and Edwin Jackson made it out of the sixth inning just once in the month after his 149-pitch no-no. Two factors helped Santana avoid their fate on Tuesday. First, his no-hitter wasn’t as strenuous as many no-hitters are; he threw just 105 pitches, barely above his season average of 102. Second, the Twins didn’t exactly wear him out with their approach. While Santana did tie a season high with 121 pitches, he got seven first or second pitch outs and had innings of just seven, eight, nine, and 11 pitches. Santana has given up more than three runs in an outing just once in his last nine starts, but he’s rostered in 89 percent of ESPN leagues and 72 percent of Yahoo! leagues, so it’s worth checking if he’s on the wire, especially in shallow leagues.

While it’s unlikely that Santana or Romero (owned in 89 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 100 percent of ESPN leagues) are available to you, Tuesday’s other impressive AL starter probably is. Phil Hughes (owned in 36 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 24 percent of ESPN leagues) was cruising against the White Sox before rain shortened his start, as he needed just 65 pitches to make it through the sixth inning. He has three quality starts in four outings since the All-Star break, but isn’t yet logging many innings in his starts, which is why his low pitch count last time out is especially notable.

Hughes is still relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, and hasn’t yet gotten his cutter back to it previously effective state. The key for Hughes -— and the point at which he returns to being a solid fantasy options —- is his feel for his secondary pitches, both his cut-fastball and curveball. Until his command comes back, hitters can simply wait for Hughes to throw fastballs if he gets into trouble. While his four-seamer is good, it isn’t good enough to consistently beat hitters who are waiting for it.

Despite Tuesday’s good start, Hughes still isn’t showing enough to be worth adding in shallow or even normal mixed leagues, though in AL-only or deep mixed, he may be a worthy gamble -— especially since his next three starts are against the Angels, Royals, and Twins. Nevertheless, it’s worth keeping an eye on his next start, if he can keep his pitch counts low and show improvement in his secondary offerings, he could be a solid addition to a team with playoff aspirations.