The weather looks good for a full day of baseball today! Worst precipitation chances (outside of the domed Marlins Park) appear to be in Philly, Baltimore, and Atlanta, but coverage will be isolated at best. Low odds for a total washout.

Assuming it doesn’t rain in Baltimore, it appears they win the best hitter environment award, with high temperatures sitting in the upper-80’s (30-33 degrees for you Celsius kids out there) and a forecast wind out to left field somewhere between 10-15 mph. I like my right-handed hitting Blue Jays and Orioles today, especially guys who may be borderline in standard leagues (ex: teams that have J.J. Hardy as a backup shortstop, perhaps?).

Read the rest of this entry »

Apologies for the slightly abbreviated Bullpen Report tonight. Have to be on my way to the airport in [checks watch] less hours than Mark Melancon has walks (4) (but I still get more sleep than Edward Mujica’s two free passes!).

• Casey Janssen had such a rough outing tonight, Steve Delabar had to come in and clean up the mess. Now, in Janssen’s defense, he did come on with a three-run lead, retired the first two batters, gave up a couple singles that dropped in front of outfielders, walked a guy, then suffered thanks to an error by his first baseman that prolonged the game. At that point, Janssen had thrown 26 pitches so Delabar was tabbed and induced a Michael Brantley fly ball for the final out. Twitter is abuzz with “oh, did Janssen just lose his job!?” Unlikely. The man still sports a 3.36 xFIP and one of the lowest walk rates among all big league closers (although he’s no Mujica). He had a rough outing a few days ago in a non-save situation, however, other than that, he hadn’t been scored upon for almost a month coming into tonight. Do not panic. Or take advantage of someone else’s panic. Feel free to handcuff Delabar in deep leagues, though. You never know when injury might strike.

• Joaquin Benoit tallied save number eight tonight. He did walk a pair, but didn’t allow either runner to score. He has worked the ninth inning in his last five outings and certainly has the look of the de facto closer for the Tigers. Make sure he’s owned in all leagues.

Good news for guys who like to own Detroit players in leagues that count holds! Jim Leyland sounded like he was playing a fun fortune cookie game when he went on record as saying “I’m not stretching him out. He can stretch out during the winter – on his bed,” when asked whether bullpen revelation Drew Smyly might be an option in the starting rotation (except he confused in and on). Smyly is outpitching his xFIP by a bunch thanks to a minuscule 2% HR/FB%, but the strikeouts are up and the walks are down, so hanging out behind the fence instead of on the bench certainly is doing something for him. His velocity is not stereotypically way up in relief and his SwStr% only ticked up a little so I’m not expecting him to keep the sparkling 2.00 ERA going forward, but he should keep racking up the holds and helping you out in WHIP.

• Frank Francisco is still not throwing. It’s not surprising he’s suffering with an elbow ailment, but what is interesting is Mets doctors are befuddled as to where the pain is coming from. He hasn’t thrown a pitch since May. If you’ve been stashing him on the DL in a deep, deep league hoping against hope he could come back and garner some high leverage opportunities it’s probably time to cut bait.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Rain, rain, go away.

While no MLB games have been postponed the last couple of days, unsettled weather has been threatening. Tonight is no different, and the spatial extent of the wet weather along the east coast should be greater than it was the last couple of days.

Both Pittsburgh and Cleveland appear to be under the gun for scattered strong to severe storms this evening. Nothing implies a total washout, however, guys interested in starting pitchers on the Pirates, Indians, A’s, or Jays might want to check the radar closer to 7 PM to see whether a rain delay or two might be in their future. Few things smart as much as having a starter go three scoreless innings with five punchouts only to get yanked because the tarp had to stay on the field for more than an hour.

Read the rest of this entry »

• What is this Adam Jones wizardry? Baltimore’s center fielder took Mariano Rivera deep for a two-run shot in the ninth this afternoon, hanging a “BS” on the future-hall-of-famer’s box score line. The blown save was only his third since the end of 2011. I know there has been some chatter here and there about Rivera not being Rivera-like this year, but I find it tough to make that argument. His K% is down a tick from his career average, but he’s also walking slightly fewer hitters. His 10.9% SwStr% is plenty good enough to keep inducing whiffs and his fastball velocity has actually nudged up a bit in his age 43 season. The only real negative that stands out is a jump in LD% rate (26% in 2013, 17% career average) which may imply hitters are making better contact. Even so, I am not selling Mo high in redraft leagues unless I get a sweet offer.

Read the rest of this entry »

• It took a while, but Koji Uehara finally got his first save since being anointed Boston’s fourth closer of the year last week. Uehara spun a 1-2-3 inning, striking out a pair of Rockies looking to polish off a John Lackey victory. While there remains some question as to how frequently Uehara can work back-to-back days, he continues to flaunt otherworldly peripherals; even if his BB% has “jumped” to 6% so far this season. He doesn’t have the prototypical mid-90’s gas, but his 16.1% SwStr% shows he doesn’t need it. If he hasn’t been picked up in your league already (maybe everyone is following that Aaron Hernandez saga too closely?), stop reading and grab him.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve talked about weather in this space a few times before, but (being my day job and all), I figured it could use some occasional expansion — you know — for those that really feel the absolute need to micromanage (be honest, that’s like half of the Rotographs demographic!). If you are like me and check your Draftstreet team (or daily fantasy lineups) somewhere between 6 and 7 PM ET, you probably want to do a quick check of the radar to look for any high impact rain events. I prefer to use the National Weather Service for a variety of personal reasons, but the vast majority of radars that weather sites use all use the same (WSR-88D) data, so it’s mainly a matter of taste (and ability to deal with blinking “click me!” ads). The below is just a quick example of the national radar mosaic I grabbed from the NWS around 9 AM ET this morning.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Rex Brothers notched save number four this afternoon, closing out a Sunday victory over the Nationals in the District. Brothers has been a pleasant surprise this year, today lowering his already minuscule ERA to 0.28. The 2013 version of Rex isn’t exactly a revelation however; his xFIP (3.64) is actually higher than his 2012 mark (3.43) in large part because his K% has fallen 3% from 28% to 25%. Regression should be expected given a BABIP of only .267 (with half of his games at Coors) as well as a 97% LOB%, which is well above his career 80% mark (already above league average).

Read the rest of this entry »

• Jim Henderson is over his groin issues as he was activated off the disabled list early this morning. Ron Roenicke wasted no time getting him a little action, having him follow Kyle Lohse’s eight innings in today’s drubbing of the Phillies. It’s hard to argue that a healthy Henderson isn’t the best pitcher (currently) in the Brewers pen, but Francisco Rodriguez has a 0.87 ERA since resurfacing a month ago. A lot of that is buoyed by a .130 BABIP and a perfect strand rate, but his 3.84 xFIP doesn’t portend imminent implosion. Roenicke has been pretty coy about the ninth inning situation; I’d expect Henderson to get it back eventually but with K-Rod pitching well and sitting on 298 career saves (apparently people like round numbers?) you shouldn’t drop either guy until someone comes out and gets two-to-three save opportunities in a row.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Downright “weird baseball” outing from Addison Reed today. Robin Ventura held him as closer-in-reserve as a scoreless game ticked into the 11th, the 12th, the 13th… well, you get the picture. Finally the White Sox broke through in the 14th… for five runs. OK, not exactly a save situation, but Reed was pretty much the last guy in the pen so he might as well come in to finish the game, right? Yes, but Reed proceeded to implode and… give all five runs back (the last four coming on a granny from Kyle Seager). Because Reed was the last man standing, he pitched the 15th and had to save his own win in the 16th after the White Sox went ahead again. His line? 3 IP, 5 ER, W. Wow. Reed tossed 55 pitches and is certain to be unavailable tomorrow, and possibly Friday as well. I’m betting on Matt Thornton (20 pitches today) for the save situation tomorrow if one should arise.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you play in daily leagues, you don’t need me to tell you how important starting lineups are. Annoying, I’ve gotten burned not once, but twice, over the last week, catching Alex Rios and Andrew McCutchen on days they weren’t playing after setting my lineup around noon. I don’t care how good the rest of your lineup is, a guy sitting on the bench is a big goose egg. If you’re like me, and set your Draftstreet lineups early in the morning; be sure to log back in around 6 PM (or in the next couple of hours today!) to make sure the guys you are paying for will see the field. For those who play in leagues with daily moves and game caps, it’s also a wise strategy to physically move guys out of the lineup who aren’t starting. Three pinch hit AB’s from your LF still count as three whole games on the stat sheet. Friendly reminder: be sure to click on “scores” on the Fangraphs menu bar for starting lineups essentially as soon as they are posted. Here’s the link for today.

Read the rest of this entry »