If nothing else, Joakim Soria’s 2011 season has proven the true volatility of the closer position. After some early struggles; which led to five blown saves and a brief demotion, Soria appears to have returned to form. While it’s difficult to evaluate his performance due to his tiny innings sample, there appears to be some evidence that suggests Soria may have truly returned to his former level of dominance. Still, if Soria slips up again, Aaron Crow is still waiting in the wings to reclaim the closer job. Does Soria have what it takes to permanently keep the job this time?
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Very few fantasy players come with more risk than Mark Reynolds. His strengths can be great, but his flaws can completely tank your fantasy team. This made Reynolds one of the more controversial selection in drafts this season. Last season, Reynolds already troublesome K-rate exploded to 42.3%. As a result, Reynolds couldn’t even hit above the Mendoza Line. This season, however, has been a completely different story. Reynolds has actually cut his K-rate to the lowest level of his career (32.9%). Despite that improvement, Reynolds overall numbers don’t appear all that much different from last season. What gives?
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Heading into 2011, Aramis Ramirez looked like the perfect bounce-back candidate. His overall line was depressed by a pathetic BABIP, but most of his other peripherals remained consistent. With a little more luck this season, it was easy to see Ramirez rebounding in a big way. While Ramirez has been able to improve his line from last season, there’s one area where Ramirez’s production is unacceptable. Ramirez has only been able to club four home runs this season, and is on pace to post his lowest slugging percentage since joining the Chicago Cubs. Due to his recent power outage, and injury history, Ramirez is a player you’ll want to stay away from around the trade deadline.
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In one of Howard Bender’s most recent Kicking Rocks articles, he identified Justin Smoak as a player experiencing a breakout season. After looking at Smoak’s stats this season, it would be tough to argue that point. If you took a poll of all the Smoak owners out there, I’m willing to bet that 2/3rds would say that Smoak is performing as they expected; if not better. Typically, this is fantastic for fantasy owners. If a player is playing at, or above, your pre-season expectations, you are probably very happy with your selection. With Smoak, though, owners are running into a very difficult situation.
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Just a quick glance at Mike Napoli’s current stats reveals why he’s been one of the most frustrating players in fantasy baseball this season. Napoli has hit for power, but his poor average and sporadic usage have likely frustrated his owners this season. Despite those struggles, there’s reason to be optimistic about Napoli’s performance going forward. If an owner in your league has given up on Napoli, this might be a good time to buy low on the power-hitting catcher.
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Alex Rios finished the 2010 season as one of the biggest fantasy bargains. Though he was nearly a 20-20 player in 2009, his average and OBP dropped to unacceptable levels, making him an afterthought in most drafts. Last season, he rewarded those patient enough to believe in a bounce-back; hitting 21 home runs and stealing 34 bases. Due to that versatility, Rios established himself as a five-category producer. Expected to produce at a similar rate this season, Rios was drafted much earlier. He “rewarded” owners by hitting just .163 through April. While Rios has improved somewhat in May, he’s still not meeting expectations. For owners looking to take advantage of slow starts, that also makes him a prime trade target.
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He entered the season as a popular regression candidate, got off to a terrible start and is currently on the Disabled List, but all of those things make Delmon Young a strong buy low candidate. There’s always risk in acquiring a player currently on the DL, but Young has experienced zero set-backs during the recovery process. Young is currently set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment on Tuesday, and could re-join the Minnesota Twins as early as next weekend. Though he still seems like a major risk, Young is one of the best buy low options in fantasy baseball right now.
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Of all the factors that go into making a successful fantasy trade, timing may be the most important. We’ve reached that point in the season where owners have experienced a month’s worth of data from their draft picks. Though we know a month’s worth of stats shouldn’t alter our expectations, it’s hard not to be frustrated with slow starters. This is where you might be able to take advantage of another owner in a trade. If you aren’t currently scouring your fantasy leagues, looking for undervalued trade-targets, you better start now. Until then, I’m here to help. Today, we’ll look at Brett Gardner as a player you should be targeting.
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It’s always tough to find power on the waiver wire. If your team doesn’t seem to be hitting home runs, it’s not as if you would expect to find 30+ home runs out on the wire. Fortunately, it’s still early in the season and there’s a chance to grab some power before other owners realize what’s out there. Pat Burrell and Hank Conger are two players that should help you out in the power department. Right now, both are available in many leagues.
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Two weeks into the fantasy season, frustration can mount pretty easily. Even though “small sample size” has been pounded into your head, it’s still tough to deal with two weeks worth of failure. Thankfully, there’s still value out on the waiver wire. Some popular pre-season sleepers may have been dropped (or not even drafted) in your leagues. While it may have taken two weeks, these players are heating up and you might be able to take advantage of their hot streaks. Matt Joyce and Russell Branyan are two players that fit this bill perfectly.
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