Author Archive

Tony Cingrani, Shelby Miller and the Two-Pitch Approach

The rookies are taking over. After a handful of major-league starts, Tony Cingrani and Shelby Miller have exceeded early expectations. While they were never compared to each other in the minors, both pitchers are succeeding utilizing an extreme fastball-heavy approach. Both players currently rank in the top-10 in four-seam usage, and would have ranked second and third last season. Even though hitters know exactly what’s coming, they haven’t been able to touch either pitcher thus far. The popular thought is that starting pitchers need three offerings in order to succeed in the majors. The track record of pitchers who utilized just two offerings makes it tough to find comparables for Miller and Cingrani.

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Waiver Wire: Post Post-Hype Sleepers

Taking a shot on a post-hype sleeper is a great way to find undervalued gems. As we all know by now, prospects don’t always burst out of the gate once they reach the majors. For every Mike Trout, there’s going to be an Alex Gordon. It took Gordon five years before he churned out a fantasy-worthy stat line. In Gordon’s case, fantasy owners pretty much gave up on him ever becoming useful, making him a post post-hype sleeper. While it’s rare for players to follow similar paths, former prospects always draw some interest when they are experiencing success. You may have given up on Travis Snider and Devin Mesoraco by now, but both are finally starting to show some growth in the majors.

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John Buck’s New Approach

John Buck cannot be stopped. Buck was an afterthought in the mega Blue Jays/Mets deal that sent R.A. Dickey to Toronto, but he’s been the best player early on. In 66 plate appearances, Buck already has 7 home runs, and is hitting .290/.303/.661. Even before Travis d’Arnaud got hurt, there was some question over whether a 32-year-old with a career .236 batting average would keep him in the minors. Based on Buck’s career numbers, nobody expects this surge to last. At the same time, Buck has utilized a different approach to begin the year. And even if it’s just a small sample size blip, it deserves some attention, as it’s already brought him a lot of success.

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Chris Archer & Danny Hultzen: Waiver Wire

Tony Cingrani will make his highly-anticipated first major-league start Thursday. Most fantasy owners are already aware of Cingrani, even though he only has five major-league innings under his belt. A recent start, in which he struck out 14 batters in six innings, caught fantasy owners’ eyes. Once it was announced Cingrani would take the place of the injured Jonny Cueto, he quickly became one of the most added players this week. If you play in competitive non-keeper leagues, it might be tough to find high-upside pitchers on your waiver wire. One way around this, if you’re patient, is to target the next Tony Cingrani. Basically, you’re taking a shot on a talented minor-leaguer, in the hopes that he finds a job in the majors soon. If you’re looking for the next Cingrani, you might want to consider adding Chris Archer and Danny Hultzen.

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Trevor Cahill Trusting His Cutter

It’s hard to remember Trevor Cahill is only 25 years old. After starting 32 games as a 21-year-old, Cahill established himself as a useful major-league starter. Like most 21-year-olds, he was hardly a finished product. Over the last four seasons, Cahill has steadily improved his game, the way most prospects his age might improve in the minors. But because Cahill has done it at the major-league level, he almost seems like a disappointment. That’s not the case, as Cahill has blossomed into an above-average starter. One of the biggest reasons for Cahill’s emergence has been his increasing strikeout rate. Last season, the development of a cutter helped Cahill strike out more hitters, leading to a career-high 3.0 WAR season. If his first three starts this year are any indication, Cahill’s cutter is going to be even more of a weapon this season.

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Trouble With the Change, Starring Jarrod Parker

Jarrod Parker has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in two of his three starts this season. After Sunday’s drubbing from the Detroit Tigers, it’s time to start wondering what’s wrong with the 24-year-old. Keep in mind that he’s only tossed 11.2 innings this year, so small sample caveats apply. But he’s also had time to work on improving over his last three starts and that hasn’t helped. Looking over his game logs, there’s some evidence that his best pitch from last season, hasn’t been much of a weapon in 2013.

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Travis Hafner and Trevor Rosenthal: Waiver Wire

Playing for upside so early in the season can be risky. The always run the risk of parting with a guy too early, and buying into a tiny sample. But if you’re going to play the waiver wire early in the year, you might as well target high-upside players. This isn’t as easy as it sounds. Most of the time, the high-upside players on the waiver wire are also the riskiest players on the waiver wire. They are imperfect, and contain at least one significant flaw. But if you’re able to hit on a guy, you’ll receive strong, cheap value for the entire season. Here are two guys who might fit that category.

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Preaching Patience with R.A. Dickey

R.A. Dickey came into the season with more concerns than the typical reigning Cy Young. He did not have the long track record of elite success in the majors, and was moving to a more difficult league. Though age is not as important with knuckle-ball pitchers, there is always some reason for caution investing in a 38-year-old. Through two games, those worries have looked justified. At the same time, it’s foolish to overreact after 10.2 innings. While Dickey has struggled, things are not as bad as they seem.

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Tyler Flowers and Patrick Corbin: Waiver Wire

Fantasy owners should never make drastic decisions based on just a few games. With opening week in full swing, it can be tough to adhere to that sentiment. As late-round fliers get off to poor starts, it can be tempting to cut bait for a player who has clubbed a couple home runs just a few days into the season. The point is, generally, you don’t want to give up on your guys this soon. If you have to make a move, or you’re already looking for a DL fill-in, it’s wise to try and target potential high-reward guys. You shouldn’t necessarily be picking up players based on their performances, you should consider whether you considered them to have decent upside before the season started. Tyler Flowers and Patrick Corbin are two players that fit that bill less than a week into the season.

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Mat Latos Trying to Bring Back His Change-Up

Mat Latos cannot pitch in April. Latos will take the mound Wednesday hoping he can overcome his early season struggles. In 70.2 April innings, he has a career 5.21 FIP. For whatever reason, it takes Latos a couple of starts before he settles into his rhythm each year. In order to prevent a slow start this year, Latos has worked on honing his change-up during the spring. Latos has been working with former Reds’ pitcher Mario Soto, who had one of the game’s best change-ups for a little over a decade. If Latos can make progress with the pitch, it could help him get back to his 2010 numbers.

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