Last week, we took a look at the Ottoneu Prestige League second round offenses, and tried to draw some rough conclusions about roster structure based on what we saw. Today, we’ll take a look at the pitching side of the equation.
This year, Ottoneu introduced the Ottoneu Prestige Leauge (OPL). The unique format allows 240 teams to enter a second competition (separate from their “home league” – the Ottoneu league they are already part of). While this isn’t the only “league of leagues” type set-up (The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitation, for example), it’s structure is one-of-a-kind and creates challenges for managers that they don’t face in other formats. For example, while TGFBI involves every team from every participating league, OPL is opt-in and includes 240 teams representing 139 leagues. The roster rules stand out even more.
Another check on the players who have the most live auctions right now across the Ottoneu universe. There is a decent chance that one or more of these players will be up for auction in your leagues today and if they aren’t, they might be soon.
Last week, we looked at bats whose rest-of-season projected points per game had the largest gap from their points per game to-date. This week, we’ll shift to the mound and do a similar comparison.
For this, I pulled a list of 145 pitchers (SP or RP) who have 20+ IP in 2021, a ROS projection on Depth Charts, and either a projected or an actual FanGraphs Points per inning pitched over 3.5. The table below shows the ten largest positive and negative gaps.
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With just over a month of the season complete, we’re starting to look at more current season data to make decisions on who to add and who to cut, who to target in trades and who to move on from. Before the season, projections are a great way to value players, set prices and find targets for auctions. And we don’t lose that tool once the season starts.
With the projection systems providing Rest of Season (ROS) projections, we are able to identify what players are projected to do moving forward, instead of simply relying on performance to-date. To identify potential sell-highs or buy-lows (or buy-highs or sell-lows), it can be useful to look at the comparison of the two – who has most over- or under-performed their ROS projections.
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Last week we looked at a group of hitters who were under 50% rostered, with 25+ PA, and over 6 points/game in Ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues. Today, we’ll turn our attention to the mound, and look at a set of SP who are under 50% rostered, have at least 2 games started to-date, and are over 5 points/inning.
When searching for free agents in Ottoneu leagues, my first stop is the Ottoneu search page. On any Ottoneu league page, you can find search via the “Players” link on desktop or the baseball icon on mobile. It has some nice functionality, including filters, sortable results, etc., that you can use to find guys who might be a fit for your team. To find free agents in my leagues, I use the “Free agents only” checkbox and then sort by things like points per game, total points, or even roster percent to find guys who are valued in other leagues but not rostered in mine.
For this article, though, I need to know free agents in your leagues, so instead of starting with the “free agents” checkbox, I used the filters to limit my results to players with a roster percent below 50. I then added a filter to limit to players with 25+ PA, and sorted by P/G. That brought up a list of seven players rostered in less than half of leagues putting up more than 6 P/G in 25+ PA.
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There have been a number of unexpected, impressive performances so far this year. This is what happens when you take a few hundred MLB-quality players, look at a one-week sample of data, and mix in a dash of “last year was a mess with no minor league season and a strange big league season.” Ottoneu managers have taken notice and in the last week, we have seen players like Yermin Mercedes, Akil Baddoo, and Julian Merryweather go from practically unknown to rostered in almost all leagues. While those players are likely already rostered in your leagues, let’s take a look at the next set of players to leap to the upper tiers of Ottoneu roster percentage. As of Monday night, these five players had the most active auctions across all of Ottoneu.
After a couple of years cutting back, I have a total of 13 teams this year – seven Ottoneu, one other keeper, one dynasty, and four redraft. I am running 10 of those on my own and three I am working with a co-manager. Across those teams, I have 471 players rostered, including 257 unique players. Of those 257 unique players, there are 12 who appear on at least five of the 13 rosters or at least four of my seven Ottoneu rosters.
Bold prediction season is the best. Just a chance to lay it on the line and lean in on the guys I am most excited about (or most unexcited about). For my bold predictions, going to go with an Ottoneu focus. And let’s get right to it.
