I didn’t start this series until January last year (which was already this year!) but I wanted to get out a bit earlier in 2023 (which is still 2022) as trade season is well underway. This comes with some risk – a number of players are still unsigned, trades are still to come, not all projections are available, etc. – but I think the risk is worth the reward, don’t you?
As in past years, before I share the list, I want to share some notes on my process.
Yesterday we looked at league and team data, today we turn our attention to player data. This is, arguably, the more interesting data. It has an immediate impact, since it tells us something about player valuations as we get ready for trade season. It also is an interesting signal outside the Ottoneu universe for the same reason – it’s a signal early in the off-season about how players are being valued. Arbitration data has, historically, influenced my rankings, keeper plans, and more. The wisdom of the crowds can be a powerful thing.
Arbitration wrapped up Monday and before we move onto trade season (though some of you already have), it’s worth looking back at what happened in arbitration and what we can learn from it.
Ottoneu arbitration is wrapping up soon (all allocations and votes need to be in by November 14, at 11:59 pm ET), so now is your last chance to make sure you got it right. For some of you, it means being annoyed your league-mates haven’t finished arbitration yet, and posting messages on your league message board begging them to finish up (note: this is me). For some of you, that likely means panicking, realizing you haven’t done it, rushing to your league site, and getting something in. For some it is just one last chance to make some edits and decide if you are happy.
Which group you fall in determines what you should do this weekend or early next week.
“But wait, Chad,” you say. “You have told us so many times that allocation arbitration dollars to prospects doesn’t make sense! Why even write this article?”
“You’re right,” I reply. “I probably shouldn’t. But I am going to do it anyway. Let me tell you why.”
Welcome to the next installment of everyone’s favorite series, “Ottoneu Arbitration Targets!” I am your host, Chad Young, and after we covered pitchers two weeks ago and infielders last week, today we venture out into the wilds of the outfield. In this grassiest of positions, we find one established stud, two elite soon-to-be-sophomores, and an intriguing breakout whose up-and-down season requires a little extra thought.
As promised, I am continuing to share potential arbitration targets going position-by-position. Last week we covered pitchers; today we cover infielders. Read the rest of this entry »
In Part I, I went over the data I used and talked about two strategies – putting on arbitration allocations on players to try to force them into the auction and allocating to pre-breakout potential stars. Today, we’ll look at a couple more topics.
I recently read The Midrange Theory, by Seth Partnow, which I would highly recommend if you are interested in basketball analytics, but that is not why I mention it. I mention it because his chapter about the NBA draft got me thinking about Ottoneu arbitration and drove me to do some research that turned into this article.
Ottoneu arbitration is underway, and over coming weeks, I’ll be sharing some potential arbitration targets going position-by-position. If you are new to Ottoneu arbitration, check out this article from Brad Johnson a few years back – it is a collection of links to all you need to know about Ottoneu arbitration.
Read the rest of this entry »