Just a reminder before we dive into this week’s picks, I’d just like to remind everyone that these are generally starters owned in 10-50 percent of all leagues.

Now, this week’s two-start starters:

Felix Doubront (2.9 percent ESPN/6 percent Yahoo!) @KC, v. CLE

I love young lefties with strikeout stuff, and Doubront is exactly that. So far he’s fanned well over 10 per nine, generated reasonable figures on his groundball and strand rates, and is only a bit unsightly when it comes to BABIP and ERA (5.19 despite a 3.38 xFIP). Like Mr. Humber below, Doubront gets a couple of decent offensive clubs in the Royals and the Indians. And while the Indians hold their ground versus southpaws (.325 wOBA versus .318 overall mark), the Royals are among the absolute worst in the game against portsiders (.267 wOBA versus .322 overall mark). Looking for something interesting to swing your ledger? The Indians and Royals are among the four toughest teams to strike out, both checking in under 17.5 percent of the time, while Doubront has fanned an impressive 25.6 percent of all hitters by featuring a decent fastball but very good offspeed offerings. I say go for it, but don’t blame me. I just work here.

Edinson Volquez (16.8 percent ESPN/50 percent Yahoo!) v. COL, @PHI

Volquez just sneaks in under my self-imposed 50 percent rule, but boy has he been good since coming over to the Padres! The biggest benefit thus far for Volquez — despite by all accounts a groundball pitcher — has been that fewer fly balls are leaving the yard for him than at any point in his big league career. Obviously, that’s the move from GAB to Petco talking, but this is a dramatic improvement for an erratic young hurler who last eclipsed 190 innings in 2008. The Rockies are a good offense, but he gets them at home, where the geriatrics are far more human (.278 team road wOBA/.376 home). The jury is still out on the Phillies offense, but at this point, they’re more awful than anything (.256/.301/.357 triple-slash, .294 wOBA). Ordinarily, that’d be a bad matchup, evoking images of Volquez’ home digs from when he was with the Reds, but that seems unlikely this time around.

Jeff Samardzija (18.7 percent ESPN/26 percent Yahoo!) v. ATL, @MIL

I already sounded the horn on my affinity for the Shark last week, who by virtue of going seven days between starts due to an off day plus a rainout actually missed out on his projected two-start status. Nevertheless, my sentiments still ring relatively true. Samardzija dazzled the Reds on Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in nailing down his third win of the young campaign.

To date, Shark is getting a respectable amount of groundballs, fanning nearly a quarter of all hitters, and perhaps most importantly, being stingy with the free pass (7.6 percent). The home run rate and the strand rate are flukily low, but with excellent FIP and xFIP numbers, there’s reason to believe — if he keeps the free pass in check — he’s going to be a good building block for the future on the north side. The Braves have a really good offense (.327 team wOBA ranks seventh), so that part of the equation is simply a gut-feel on my part. The Brew Crew, on the other hand, are a high-whiff, low-walk group that lives and dies by the long ball (32, tied for third in MLB), which Samardzija has been extraordinarily stingy on. I like the young righty this week, and think he’ll soon price himself out of my 50 percent bracket.

Also possibly consider:

Philip Humber – @CLE, v. KC: The dude just threw a perfecto and gets a couple division rivals this week. Both offenses are pretty good, but so is Humber. Leaning towards yes on this one.

Ivan Nova – v. TB, v. SEA: Nova may roughly translate to “doesn’t go” in Spanish, but the young righty has been full steam ahead so far this year. The Mariners offense has been abysmal (.292 wOBA, over 3:1 K/BB rate), and Nova has added plenty of Ks while shaving the BB (8.2 and 2.6 per nine, respectively). The Rays offense is very well-rounded and may give Nova more trouble, but keep in mind that Evan Longoria is on the shelf for the foreseeable future.

Jarrod Parker – v. TOR, v. DET: The young phenom has looked alright so far, but he gets two middle-of-the-pack offenses that — at least in my view — appear ready to break out. A cursory glance at Parker’s line would make him look like a groundballer, but in fact he’s more of a line drive pitcher (an awful distinction, no?) so far this year. He’s a relatively good play, but with a high strand rate and the strikeouts just not coming quite yet, it’s really your call.

Today we resume the series of two-start starters that are likely on waivers in your league. As a rule and a reminder, this means only two-start guys who are on the wire in more than half of leagues via ESPN or Yahoo! fantasy setups.

This is a particularly lean week for guys to recommend. Surely there are some strong options, but let’s dive into the middle of the pack to see who you should start.

Kyle Drabek (25.4 percent ESPN/30 percent Yahoo!) – v. Tex, @LAA

It’s only four trips through the rotation, but Drabek is looking more like the pitcher who was in a deal for Roy Halladay than one who carried a 6.00-plus ERA and walked more than he whiffed. To be fair, Drabek is still struggling a bit with the free pass, but he catches a Halos team allergic to them (6.6 percent BB rate tied for second-worst in MLB), and at the very least, he gets the bopping Texas Rangers — also rather walk-averse at 7.8 percent — lineup at home. Drabek has improved greatly on the ground ball side of things, and even though he’s stranding an abnormal amount of runners (94.5 percent!), he’s also well above his career marks in HR/FB. There’s plenty of wiggle in Drabek’s overall numbers — see: .226 BABIP — but for now, in a lean week, you can do a lot worse than the 24-year old righty.

Jeff Samardzija (16.1 percent ESPN/22 percent Yahoo!) – @PHI, v. LAD

The Shark has been downright dazzling as he heads into this week’s two-date dance. The 4.13 ERA isn’t as beautiful as one might like, but the 2.35 FIP tells a lot of the story: 9.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, .352 BABIP, and 64.4 percent strand rate. The future is looking up for the 27-year old righty, as long as he can keep the free passes down. The matchup with Philly would usually not be an accommodating one, but this year’s incarnation of the Phightins has a .290 wOBA, 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 18.8 percent whiff rate. I’d be absolutely salivating over that matchup. The Dodgers post a bit of a tougher match for the former wideout, but it’s at home, and outside of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, only A.J. Ellis on the Fighting Mattinglys has a wOBA over .340. It’s pretty top-heavy.

Luke Hochevar (1.9 percent ESPN/9 percent Yahoo!) – @DET, v. NYY

I tossed-and-turned a bit with this one, but ultimately, there was really no other good option. Hammel is going to really get his mettle tested with the two Eastern powerhouses, Nicasio’s still a bit too unproven, and I don’t trust Happ further than I can throw him. This leaves me recommending Hochevar, who’s had a decent stretch to start the season, but hasn’t exactly been a world-beater. His BABIP is good, his FIP is low, and I love his infield defense — when Getz plays second, anyway — and the fact that he doesn’t have to go to New York. The Yankees offense has been really good, but they’re a little easier on the road (.362 wOBA overall, .350 on the road), and the Tigers offense has been quite a disappointment (.304 wOBA overall, .311 at home). Again, the Hochevar matchup isn’t one that’ll make a fantasy owner jump up and down, but I think at the very least, he can show a Pavanian level of usefulness.

At your own risk:
James McDonald – @ATL, CIN
J.A. Happ – v. NYM, v. STL
Juan Nicasio – v. LAD, v. ATL
Jason Hammel – @NYY, @BOS
Tommy Milone – @BOS, @TB

Bargain Bin Shopping: Adam Wilk (0 percent ownership overall) – v. KC, v. CWS or Joe Wieland (0 percent) – v. MIL, v. FLA

It’s not often that I’ll mention a couple of guys that are completely unowned, and to be fair, I’m not exactly pushing them down your throat. While Wilk is getting a couple clubs that are middle of the pack offensively, the White Sox are hitting .193/.279/.343 with a .270 wOBA against southpaws and the Royals .203/.262/.312 (.253 wOBA). He could sneak in a couple cheapies this week. Wieland, on the other hand, has started 0-3 but has been quite good in his past two starts, both at home. The Marlins are 23rd in team wOBA (.292), and much of the Brewers .329 wOBA stems from the power out of a team triple-slash of .237/.308/.447. That power should be neutralized at Petco, making Wieland a possibly decent play this week.

* Wilk was sent down in favor of Duane Below.

Today’s piece is the debut of start/sit: two start starters for this season. Obviously, in weekly leagues — like the THT/FG league that’s currently going on — lineups must be set prior to Monday’s tilts, so we’ll take this opportunity to have a gander at the pitchers currently slated to start two games for streaming starters if that’s a strategy you like to pursue.

Read the rest of this entry »

Regular RotoGraphs readers may recall a couple weeks ago when I posted my then-in-progress Scoresheet team for all to belittle and besmirch.

Well, my roster has since filled out, and I’m now ready for further humiliation and shame. Let’s take a peek, with breakdowns where I feel are pertinent: Read the rest of this entry »

Last season as an employee of Baseball Prospectus, I was invited to join a Scoresheet league called “Kings.” It was an AL/NL league comprised of 24 teams owned by some of the brightest baseball minds going today – your Jaffes, Passans, Swydans, and Laurilas of the world. As a relative newcomer to the ranks of elite baseball websites, I was permitted to join a team with John Erhardt, whom at the time had previously worked at BP.

Year one was a learning experience for me. We accidentally nabbed Danny Valencia in the second round of the dispersal draft — fortunately we’d pulled Jason Heyward in the first — and we ended up floundering to a 68-94 record, good for last in our division.

Come keeper time, I was faced with some tough decisions. For one, Erhardt would be departing our team, leaving me as the sole proprietor. To his credit, he was just blessed with his first child, so he certainly had more pressing issues at hand. Congratulations again, John. Nonetheless, we had decided last season was a bust pretty early on and sold off some good pieces — namely, J.J. Hardy — to make sure that we’d have some extra youth we could keep and maybe an extra pick or two.

The way keepers work in our Scoresheet league is this: anyone deemed a ‘prospect’ costs you a pick at the back of your draft. If you keep five prospects, you forfeit your last five picks. If you keep 10 big leaguers — the limit in this league — you will start drafting in round 11.

Coming off a bad season, I decided to only keep two big league players: Chris Sale and Heyward. This meant keeping prospects Drew Pomeranz, Deck McGuire, Joe Benson, Michael Choice, and Dellin Betances. It also meant cutting loose big leaguers Jhoulys Chacin, Derek Holland, Orlando Hudson, Andrew Bailey, Chris Perez, Coco Crisp, and a few others. Ideally I’d have kept Holland, but I was taking a chance that I’d be among the lowest in terms of keepers, and could lock in an early draft pick or two.

The strategy prevailed. As the draft kicked off last Friday evening, I was the only one picking in round three, and was able to nab Yu Darvish. Additionally, I had the first to pick in round four, and was able to pull Yoenis Cespedes. Quite a coup, at least in my view. Geoff Young of BP grabbed Nelson Cruz at pick three (second pick, round four), and I rounded out my third of the first four picks with Jose Altuve at the top of round five.

In round six, I grabbed Alexei Ramirez, and in subsequent rounds, I was able to pull Salvador Perez, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Jordan Lyles, Crisp, and Valencia. (RE: Crisp and Valencia? Apparently I’m a glutton for punishment.)

So here’s how my roster currently sits:

C – Salvador Perez
1B – Carlos Pena
2B – Jose Altuve
3B – Danny Valencia
SS – Alexei Ramirez
LF – Coco Crisp
CF – Yoenis Cespedes
RF – Jason Heyward
DH – Adam Dunn

SP – Yu Darvish
SP – Chris Sale
SP – Drew Pomeranz
SP – Jordan Lyles

Prospects – Joe Benson, Michael Choice, Dellin Betances, Anthony Rendon, Josh Vitters, Deck McGuire

At the risk of giving away my strategy, I think I’m going to focus on a couple innings eaters — especially considering the relative youth and unpredictability of my rotation– a dynamic defender in the infield and outfield, and then start looking at bullpen and prospects.

It could just be the Kool-Aid talking, but I really like the lineup. I think I’ll probably go as follows:

1. Heyward RF
2. Crisp LF
3. Pena 1B
4. Dunn DH
5. Ramirez SS
6. Cespedes CF
7. Valencia 3B
8. Perez C
9. Altuve 2B

Obviously the lack of a true leadoff hitter hurts, so I’ll be counting on either Heyward, Crisp, or Altuve to fill that role for me. I like the power potential at 3-4, and I also tried to find at least passable defenders at most every position. As for the pitching staff, we’ll be very young, but there’s some good upside, and like I noted, if I add a couple innings-eaters, it could be pretty well rounded.

There are a veritable plethora of relievers in the pool right now, so I don’t think I’m going to wade into that group just yet.

Anyone else in a Scoresheet league? Have any tips or criticisms? Blast away!

1. Cliff Pennington will be a top-five AL SS.

Pennington was a line drive machine last season, finishing sixth among all qualified hitters in both leagues with a 24.8 percent rate. The season before, Pennington still checked in at a solid 21.5 percent, which would suggest ‘11 wasn’t a total aberration. Thus, coinciding with his excellent plate discipline in the minors (nearly 1:1 K/BB rate), Pennington would seem to have a solid chance to improve quite a bit on his .302 wOBA in ‘11, especially if he can start using his non-line drive powers for good (as in, more grounders). Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday night, we completed a second FanGraphs staff league Ottoneu draft, and after eight long hours — spread over two nights — I had my very first squad. I thought it might be fitting to have my first ever Ottoneu draft coincide with my first post at RotoGraphs, so feel free to skewer my decision-making but please keep in mind I was a first-timer.

Read the rest of this entry »