First a look at the running totals through half of week 19:

40-25 record
3.90 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.6 K/BB
1.31 WHIP

And since some of you have asked some questions, click here for a link to the spreadsheet I keep with all the numbers.

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jimmy Nelson – 3.3% ESPN/12% Y!/52% own, 31% start CBS – @SDP (.284), @SFG (.303)

Nelson has only made eight starts, but so far the numbers and peripherals are pretty encouraging. Nelson is fanning 7.2 per nine, which is right around the NL average for starters (7.4). That definitely plays up with his 51.7 percent groundball rate, which comes courtesy of a heavy sinker which he favors most in his repertoire (59.1 percent GB rate on it). It’s not a garden-variety sinker, either. It’s a 93-94 mph bowling ball that he throws about half the time, and is a nice complement to a very good slider (18.7 percent whiff rate). Tack on a couple really nice opposing offenses to be facing — late-season run or not I’m still pushing Padres — and Nelson is a really nice deep sleeper for this week. In his last six starts, he has a 3.82 ERA and .260/.323/.384 opponents’ line. Thank you grounders, right? Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 18:

37-23 record
3.83 ERA
7.4 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.29 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jason Vargas – 18.2% ESPN/27% Y!/72% own, 35% start CBS – @MIN (.312), @TEX (.307)

The entire Vargas-in-KC situation reeks of genius, despite all the grief that GMDM gets. Vargas, when right, is one of the league’s better innings eaters. That alone is probably worth $8 million per year. Add to that his balls-in-play tendencies — mostly fly balls but he’s no Chris Young or Jered Weaver either — paired with the Royals fantastic defense, and that’s a pretty beautiful marriage. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 17:

33-22 record
3.99 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.31 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jon Niese – 11.8% ESPN/22% Y!/68% own, 35% start CBS – @PHI (.296), v. CHC (.304)

A pair of bottom-eight offenses punctuates the week for the better-than-you-realize Niese, who gets by with a fair number of strikeouts and an above-average groundball profile despite only having one pitch above 10 percent SwStr% — and that’s a curve at just 10.7. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 16:

31-21 record
4.00 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.30 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Kevin Gausman – 4.4% ESPN/14% Y!/56% own, 31% start CBS – @WAS (.310), v. STL (.305)

As a brief aside, it’s a bit odd to see the Cardinals offense that far down — 21st among MLB in wOBA — but in the end that’s part of what makes Gausman such a favorable option this week. Gausman has done a very nice job for the Orioles this year, especially given how many times he’s been up and down — he’s only made three of his ten starts this year on regular four days rest. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through week 15 (and an apology for being extremely late this week due to a 10-year high school reunion):

30-20 record
3.93 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.31 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Nathan Eovaldi – 13.7% ESPN/22% Y!/55% own, 28% start CBS – v. WAS (.312), v. PIT (.320)

The Eovaldi rec is a tough one, as he’s gotten absolutely rocked in his last five starts (0-3, 6.39 ERA, and just 14 strikeouts in 31 innings). Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through week 14 / the All Star break:

28-18 record
3.98 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.6 K/BB
1.30 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jacob deGrom – 31.9% ESPN/31% Y!/59% own, 27% start CBS – @SEA (.299), @MIL (.320)

deGrom has sort of come out of nowhere, as a right-hander one strikeout off a one per inning pace despite never matching that at any minor league level of his four seasons on the Mets farm. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 13:

25-14 record
3.93 ERA
7.4 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.27 WHIP

On a side note, this is the last #2xSP before the All Star break. So I hope you enjoy the festivities — played in my home city of Minneapolis — and we’ll see you again in a couple weeks.

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jake Odorizzi – 7.8% ESPN/16% Y!/57% own, 33% start CBS – v. KCR (.306), v. TOR (.334)

It didn’t start out so nice for Odorizzi this season. At the end of each month so far this season, here’s how his ERAs have laid out: 6.85, 5.13, 4.14. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 12:

21-13 record
3.95 ERA
7.4 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.27 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Danny Duffy – 11.4% ESPN/29% Y!/55% own, 36% start CBS – @MIN (.312), @CLE (.322) Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 11:

18-13 record
4.04 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.8 K/BB
1.26 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Nathan Eovaldi – 40.7% ESPN/39% Y!/81% own, 49% start CBS – @PHI (.302), v. OAK (.332)

I’ve made it no secret my affinity for Eovaldi, a fireballing right-hander (95-96 average on both heaters) with good strikeout (7.1 per nine) and grounder (46.9 percent) rates who plays in a very difficult park for left-handed hitters and all power hitters alike. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week ten:

16-10 record
3.88 ERA
7.9 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.21 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Trevor Bauer – 9.4% ESPN/25% Y!/75% own, 42% start CBS – v. LAA (.325), v. DET (.329) Read the rest of this entry »