• We have Cody Allen in the first chair on the grid below but Andrew Miller secured the win for the Indians getting his 11th save on the year. Cody Allen was never expected to received every save opportunity so he will remain first but this situation is still red and it likely will stay that way for the rest of the season as a somewhat committee between the two. In more exciting news, Miller struck out the side and now has 93 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched, supporting a 44.5% strikeout rate which is only 0.3% behind league leader and former teammate, Dellin Betances. Miller is the more effective reliever but using him in higher leveraged situations is an effective strategy by the Indians.

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• Andrew Miller threw two perfect frames Sunday but considering it was the seventh and eighth innings, I’m going to flip him and Cody Allen who saved the game (22) throwing a perfect inning of his own. It goes without say that Andrew Miller is still a must own and will continue to see save opportunities this season but Allen is deserving of the first spot on the grid at this time.

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Apologies again on the belated BR but onto the news…

• A.J. Ramos had been struggling of late, particularly with his control (5.28 BB/9) but he’s been placed on the DL with a right finger fracture. Fernando Rodney will slide into the ninth inning for now, so kudos to anyone who held onto him after he was traded and then was mediocre on Florida. Behind Rodney we have Kyle Barraclough and Mike Dunn. However, Brian Ellington threw in the eighth inning last night and has a shiny ERA, he could enter the grid as well.

• In other injury news, Cam Bedrosian was placed on the DL with finger issues of his own. In his place we moved Fernando Salas to the closer spot. Salas has never been that effective of a reliever and he certainly hasn’t been this year with a 4.66/4.87/4.67 ERA/FIP/xFIP line and he shouldn’t have too long of a leash if he struggles. J.C. Ramirez and Deolis Guerra should be behind Salas if he falters and this could even end up a committee of sorts until Bedrosian is back up. Ramirez has seen higher leverage but I actually like Guerra more. He’s mostly famous for being part of the package the Mets sent to the Twins in the Johan Santana deal and although he’s flamed out as being an impact starter, he’s done well on the Angels this year. He doesn’t miss too many bats but has a 1.5% BB% in 35.2 innings this year and if Salas struggles he could see a save opportunity.

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• Carlos Estevez blew his second save in a row last night after allowing three earned runs while only recording one out. Over his last two outings, Estevez has retired two batters while giving up seven runs in the process. His ERA now stands at 5.18, and while a 3.71/4.11 FIP/xFIP tell a slightly different story, Estevez was never considered the long term answer at closer in Colorado. Adam Ottavino on the other hand often was considered the future in the ninth, but his return from TJ and Estevez getting saves was in his way. After the game Walt Weiss said “I’m not going to be talking about roles after the game” but this author certainly will. I’m going to go ahead and make the change on the grid, putting Ottavino ahead of Estevez. While Weiss didn’t anoint a new closer, he didn’t really defend Estevez either. Ottavino was always the better pitcher and now that Estevez blew the last two saves in terrible fashion I’m going to assume Ottavino gets the next opportunity.

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• We mentioned Huston Street’s continued struggles yesterday and it looks like he’s found himself on the disabled list with “inflammation in his right knee.” Street has been the worst closer in baseball this year so it was either going to be an injury or demotion that removed him from the closing chair. In his place goes Cam Bedrosian who got his first career save last night striking out the side. On the year Bedrosian has a 0.90/1.88/2.72 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line, a groundball percentage of 50.5% and a 32.5% strikeout rate. Killing worms and missing bats is generally a great way to be successful as a pitcher and I went aggressive making the Angels situation green. Yes, Bedrosian is a first time closer but he’s far and away the best option and I feel his job is secure.

• Will Harris‘ recent struggles also caught up to him as Ken Giles has supplanted him as closer. I opened the door to this possibility last night but the Astros made the change before seeing another blown opportunity by Harris. Luke Gregerson has pitched great as well so I’m slotting him 2nd in line, behind Giles. The Astros paid a pretty penny for Giles last year and he will now earn his keep in the ninth as the Astros fight for the playoffs. Look past Giles’ 3.80 ERA and you will see he’s the same dominant pitcher he was on the Phillies – his strikeout rate is the 11th best among relievers, his K-BB% ranks 12th, and his 97 mph fastball is among the league leaders. With Bedrosian, Edwin Diaz and now Giles added to the ninth inning, along with the usual slate of dominating closers, we are in the midst of some of the most terrifying closers I’ve ever seen.

UPDATE: With Luke Gregerson on the DL that obviously changes things. Harris is second and Michael Feliz will be added to the grid.

• Speaking of Edwin Diaz, the new Seattle closer didn’t disappoint in his first action, pitching around a walk while striking out three batters for his first save of the year. Diaz is now up to 52 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched. You would think after a few years of  Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances that we have seen it all but Diaz is taking it to another level. If anything Diaz has been unlucky in his batted ball profile and I don’t see how the Mariners will rationalize using Cishek again this year barring a collapse – I upgraded them to green.

• Quick hits: Yesterday was a solid day for new closers as Tyler Thornburg pitched a perfect ninth for his 3rd save on the year and Tony Watson secured his first save of the year for Pittsburgh. Zach Britton can’t pitch every day so Darren O’Day filled in getting four outs for his second save. After a brief DL stint he’s certainly back to his old bad self behind Britton. Rough debut for Will Smith in SF as he gave up two runs without finishing the inning. Sergio Romo wasn’t any better allowing three runs of his own. Hunter Strickland and Derek Law threw scoreless innings in the sixth and seventh innings respectively and could leapfrog Romo if he has another blip. Nobody can be perfect and Seung Oh blew a save – his job is still safe. Roberto Osuna had a day off and Jason Grilli pitched a perfect inning for second save, cementing his role as second in line in Toronto. It’s possible that Aaron Sanchez‘ move to the pen could change that but I think Grilli is safe.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Yesterday was (obviously) deadline day and there was thankfully lots of action. I hope you enjoyed hitting refresh on your Twitter account as much as I did.

• Brewers GM David Stearns was very active, trading two of the three relievers that were rumored in trades in Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. Jeremy Jeffress is heading to Texas, and while I don’t think he will supplant Sam Dyson right away I am going to make the Rangers situation yellow, showing some caution. There wasn’t anyone knocking on the door too loudly behind Dyson earlier but now there is Jeffress.

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Apologies on the delayed Bullpen Report as the current author recovers from ACL surgery. But like Mariano Rivera I’ll be back soon and certainly be more prompt with publishing. On to the bullpens…

• We previously spoke in these parts about Jonathan Papelbon not looking like his old self and of late it looks like the wheels are coming off. Papelbon blew his third save last night after allowing four straight baserunners without recording an out. And this is after allowing four runs in his previous outing. On the season his ERA/FIP/xFIP stands at a very pedestrian 4.18/3.20/4.51. His fastball velocity is a career low at 90.9 mph and although his K/9 is slightly above last year’s mark his swinging strike rate is down. Dusty Baker said that Papelbon is still the closer but considering the Nationals were in Aroldis Chapman rumors before his recent slide, I expect the Nationals to make an upgrade in the pen moving Papelbon from the role.

• Jon Axford got work in the bottom of the ninth last night but there is no change in Oakland as Ryan Madson is still the closer. In days when he’s not available, Melvin will turn to Axford though and I’ve put him second in line on the grid below.

• I think Andrew Miller is pretty good at this relieving thing whether it’s closing or not as he pitched around one hit for his ninth save of the year and his second since Aroldis Chapman was traded. The Yankees brass has still refused to go into “sell” mode so I think Miller’s job is still relatively safe. Also, although he would accept a setup role if traded, Miller would be the best reliever on any team he would be moved to which keeps his chances of getting saves pretty high. Dellin Betances remains the elite setup man in baseball and I would expect Chad Green or Adam Warren to possibly fill in Betances’ old spot. Both pitchers can be starters or long men but I put Green on the grid as he’s been light’s out in relief with a 2.08 FIP in that role. Warren struggled a bit this year for the Cubs so I would expect the Yankees to use him more for multiple innings where he succeeded last year for the Yanks.

• While everyone reloads their Twitter feed for sexy rumors regarding Andrew Miller or Wade Davis, the Blue Jays and Mariners made a small reliever swap with Joaquin Benoit heading to Toronto for Drew Storen. Edwin Diaz and his ridiculous 44.9% stirkeout rate moves behind Cishek with Tom Wilhelmsen stepping onto the grid. Meanwhile in Toronto, Benoit will set up Roberto Osuna along with Jason Grilli. The Mariners are hoping a “change of scenery” helps Storen and if it does, he could find his way back in the fold.

• Jim Johnson isn’t any good but he’s still closing in Atlanta and recorded his third save last night. Chris Withrow actually threw in the eighth inning and has been pretty good of late so I added him to the grid. Johnson may not be long for the ninth for much longer but I sitll have Withrow behind Mauricio Cabrera and his heater.

Rumor Roundup: The Nationals missed on Aroldis but still need an upgrade with Andrew Miller, David Robertson and Wade Davis mentioned. Miller and Davis have reasonable contracts moving forward and should fetch a bigger haul than Aroldis which is probably keeping them from being moved at the moment. Robertson could be had but he’s struggled a bit this year with his worst peripherals of his career and an ERA over 4. The Brewers trifecta of relievers – Will Smith, Jeremy Jeffress and Tyler Thornburg remain on the block as well. One has to also figure the Rays would release Alex Colome once they saw the price tag on Chapman. The Nationals figure to be the main team who could make a move quick but other than that there is no trade on the cusp of being completed.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• Chris Sale can’t complain too much about his team’s bullpen with 14 wins on the season but David Robertson didn’t do him any favors last night. Entering the ninth with a 3-0 lead, Robertson allowed three base runners before Adam Lind capped it off with a walk off homer. After the outing, Robertson’s ERA/FIP/xFIP now stands at a pedestrian 4.14/3.53/4.15 with his career low 26.8% strikeout rate (although still above average) and his career high 12.8% walk rate being of some legitimate concern. I wouldn’t bet on Robertson to have a 4+ ERA all season and his job isn’t in danger but his spot among the elite relievers is certainly gone.

• As we all know, Aroldis Chapman throws hard. Last night he threw a pitch 105.1 mph and four pitches over 104 mph. However, the important thing over here at the Bullpen Report isn’t Chapman’s velocity but which jersey he will be throwing in a few weeks. There is a big “will they or won’t they” regarding the Yankees trading Andrew Miller but with Chapman being a free agent it’s highly likely that he is traded. All the usual suspects apply with Mark Feinsand noting that the Yankees were scouting the Indians Triple-A squad. With the Yankees ownership still holding on to a pipe dream of competing, specific deals and discussions haven’t been reported but they should start heating up very, very soon.

• After getting the win on Sunday, Francisco Rodriguez got the save last night, his 26th on the year. Early on this season Justin Wilson was a popular speculative add with K-Rod’s struggles but he’s been outstanding of late. Since June 1st, K-Rod has throw 15 innings with two earned runs and 16 strikeouts, holding batters to a .358 OPS against. On the year he’s supporting a 2.67/2.95/3.41 pitching line with a career high 52.3% groundball percentage. He’s no longer the flame thrower he was when he came up during the Angels World Series run but his ability to adjust as his velocity has fallen (88.8 mph this year) has really been something to watch. In his early years, K-Rod hardly ever threw a changeup and in 2016 he throws one 42% of the time. If any closer wants to extend their career with diminished velocity they would be smart to give K-Rod a ring, or at least text because nobody calls these days.

• Quick Hits: Wade Davis continued his return from the DL, only needing one out for his 20th save on the year. The Marlins successful season has really helped Ramos’ save totals as he now has 30 on the year, second in the league. Carlos Estevez nailed down his 6th save, and he’ll have to avoid trouble with Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino waiting in the wings.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Some injury related news today with relievers returning from and going to the Disabled List so let’s get started…

• Wade Davis “has a strain on the top of the forearm” and has been put on the DL. Apparently it’s a similar injury that Davis had in the playoffs last year that he pitched through.  A reoccurring injury is never a fun sign but considering he pitched threw it previously and with the break coming, it shouldn’t be too long before Davis is back. The Royals might go by a committee of sorts so I’ll place Herrera at the top for now given that he’s been the best for KC. However, Ned Yost seems to trust Soria so expect him to get a look as well. We’ll be sure to update the grid as this situation is likely fluid with both relievers likely to get a chance. Luke Hochevar moves onto the grid but isn’t expected to see the ninth.

• While Wade Davis went down, Alex Colome was recalled from the DL. Colome actually entered the game last night but in a non-save situation as he was just getting work in. He was effective throwing a scoreless inning giving up one hit and picking up a strikeout. I expect him to reclaim the ninth immediately with Xavier Cedeno and Erasmo Ramirez moving down a slot.

• In other returning news, Adam Ottavino is back from Tommy John and recorded an out last night. Ottavino will “will ease back into game action” for now but could see higher leverage innings very soon. Jake McGee’s return wasn’t enough to supplant Carlos Estevez, so there’s no guarantee that Ottavino would either. However, Estevez isn’t necessarily Mr. Reliable and if Weiss chooses to make a change, Jake McGee has some more competition.

• It was all bad timing for Ryan Buchter. Right when Rodney was traded he had just recently given up a five-spot and although he was still the presumed next-in-line, it looks like Brandon Maurer is the closer. Both Buchter and Maurer struggle with control but really know how to miss bats. On the season, Buchter’s performance is better but Maurer has come on of late as he’s allowed just one run in his last nine appearances throwing 8.2 innings with ten strikeouts against zero walks. This situation is still red and Maurer has never quite been consistently dominant in the pen but he’s the closer for now.

• He’s not closing but damn has Edwin Diaz been impressive. In just 15.1 innings in the majors Diaz has 29 strikeouts which leads to a 17.02 K/9 and a 42% strikeout rate. Neither number is sustainable but seemingly each year a few lights out flamethrowers come up and Diaz looks to be one of them. I currently have him third in the grid below but this can certainly change. Steve Cishek has been solid this season and is still under contract next year so unless he’s traded I would still expect Diaz to set up and not rack saves increasing his future arbitration cost. Until then however, enjoy his strikeouts and ratio help.

• Note that the first iteration of this post was dated 2017. While many of the situations will remain similar come next July, I was not trying to predict the future.

Closer Grid:

l

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• As some brilliant readers pointed out last night, we likely had the grid wrong for Tampa Bay and boy was that poor timing as Alex Colome was placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis. According to Marc Topkin “the DL move is retroactive to June 19, and Colome said he hopes to be ready to pitch again when eligible on Monday.” That might be a bit optimistic but it doesn’t look like Colome’s stay on the DL will be particularly lengthy. As the readers noted, Erasmo Ramirez has struggled so expect Xavier Cedeno to get the first look at saves but this could be a committee of sorts with Danny Farquhar and Matt Andriese in the mix as well.

• One closer gets hurt and another is on the mend. We gave a quick update on Jonathan Papelbon last night and he said he felt great after his outing last night, likely only needing one more simulated game before being ready to go. I would feel free to activate Papelbon as he’s likely to pitch this weekend for Washington and should return to his familiar role in the ninth.

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