I had a bad day in this space yesterday. I admit it. I have bad days, sometimes too often. Sometimes I get in the zone and roll off a few good ones in a row. Such is life in the fantasy world, and it’s why a lot of people prefer the long-game of seasonal leagues. In those leagues, some of the daily variance goes away because there are far fewer decisions to be made.

Daily leaguers, though, crave that renewed challenge every morning to try and beat the system and beat each other. It’s a part of what makes formats like DraftStreet or Fangraphs The Game so fun and addicting – if you win, you feel the high and want to keep rolling, and if you lose there’s a chance to bounce back the next day.

In that way, daily fantasy leagues are a lot like actual baseball, though it’s certainly much more difficult than “you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball.” Those who avoid daily leagues? Lollygaggers.
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Chris Sale struck out 14 Houston Astros yesterday and took the loss. He gave up just two runs in eight innings and, because it’s worth repeating, he struck out 14 batters. And he took the loss. Ugh.

So is this a lesson that we should throw up our hands at pitcher wins? Well, yeah, that’s been the case for some time. But they matter in fantasy, particularly in daily leagues – in DraftStreet, a win is worth 1.5 points and a loss is worth -0.75. Sale was a huge point getter last night, but he could have got an additional 2.25 if the Sox could, you know, hit.

So what’s a daily leaguer to do? You could avoid pitchers on bad teams altogether, skipping White Sox pitchers, Angels pitchers, Astros pitchers? No. You just can’t limit your player pool like that. And a guy like Sale was still worth a heck of a lot.
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What do you do when two pitchers square off? A lot depends on context, of course, but on Thursday two great pitchers square off in a favorable environment. Adam Wainwright takes on Matt Harvey in new York, where it’s expected to be just 64-degrees and with a 17 MPH wind blowing in to third base.

Two good pitchers, both in a friendly environment, but there’s, at most, one win up for grabs. In a daily format like Fangraphs The Game, this doesn’t matter as much, since you’re playing for the long haul and peripheral stats rule the day. But in a daily one-and-done format like DraftStreet, finding that elusive victory is important – they’re worth 1.5 points versus -0.75 for a loss. That 2.25-point swing is equivalent to three extra strikeouts.
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What do you do when the signs point in different directions? In daily leagues, this can be a huge question. Luckily for Wednesday, there are ample options available, but what about on days where there aren’t?

Today provides a good example of these clashing signals that we have to make a decision from. Case in point:

At game time tomorrow, the temperature in Kansas City is expected to be about 89-degrees, which can significantly impact run scoring in a positive way. In addition, they are anticipating an 18 MPH wind out to right field, a ridiculously helpful boost for hitters, especially lefties.

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20 innings. 18 innings. Wild.

On Saturday, the Miami Marlins and New York Mets played a 20-inning game that saw both teams use a starting pitcher out of the bullpen for seven innings or longer. The Marlins also used six bullpen arms, while the Mets used six as well.

The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers also played an 18-inning affair, with the Jays using all eight of their active bullpen arms (eight-man bullpen, hey!). The Rangers managed to use just four relievers thanks to Ross Wolf giving them 6.2 before surrendering a game-winning Bert (a Bert is an unearned run – earned runs are Ernies).

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Last Sunday in this space, I spoke about not being too clever in daily formats. My point was that you have a daily budget, not one that spans a week or month or season. If you think an ace is going to have an ace-like game, then select him, and ditto for hitters. There’s no point in leaving money on the table just to show that you’re clever.

At the same time, it also doesn’t make sense to spend money just because it’s there. It’s certainly possible that what you see as an optimal line-up for the day only fills about 90% of your budget. Consider the following example where you have a $100 to spend on two pitchers.

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Sometimes, it’s better not to be clever. A lot of the time I feel the fantasy ‘die-hards’ get caught up in out-thinking their opponents, and it can sometimes lead to sub-optimal decision making.

For the whole season, I’ve recommended weekend streaming options – the nature of streamers is that they’re owned in less than 50% of leagues, so there’s serious selection bias when looking at the results. With 29 recommendations, the streamers I suggested posted a 4.29 ERA and 4.15 FIP, with 12 wins (41%) and an average of 4.2 strikeouts in nearly six innings. These are, to ignore humility for a moment, pretty good numbers given the criteria for streamers.

They are not, however, excellent numbers, since starters league-wide have a 4.13 ERA and 4.05 FIP with 4.5 strikeouts in nearly six innings per start and wins in 35% of starts. That is, even ‘good’ streaming success adds league-average stats to your fantasy team.

But when it comes to daily leagues, you occasionally run into ownership/usage levels that indicate people are getting too clever, looking for good streaming options when excellent, though more expensive, ace options exist. Today is one such day – should we avoid Matt Harvey in a daily league because he comes with a heftier price tag?
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As we make the transition to the Daily Fantasy Update, I’ve lost my role as “Friday and Saturday Streamers Guy,” as well as the chance to shoehorn in a Bullet For My Valentine reference in all my post titles. And while finding four streamers across those two days was sometimes challenging, I’ve now been tasked with something equally challenging – making daily recommendations for Thursdays, perhaps the toughest day of the week.

After all, Thursdays and Mondays have the lightest schedules in baseball, and Thursdays can also pose the challenge of “getaway days,” where teams play afternoon games after night games. Those afternoon-after-night scenarios are especially important to watch out for when it comes to catchers and relief pitchers, as a manager is less likely to put that kind of wear on his guys in the more taxing roles. Tomorrow is a rare Thursday, though, in that all 30 teams play and there are only four afternoon games. So what the heck am I going on for? Thanks, Interleague Play!

Oh, Interleague. There’s another wrinkle to watch out for, as nine American League teams lose their designated hitter for the day. Guys like Victor Martinez and Adam Lind might feel the crunch with more valuable players taking up their potential positions. I know not everyone can check the line-ups diligently as they’re posted throughout the day, so it might be better to avoid DHs altogether (or scan each team’s site for context clues), since an empty spot is such a killer for daily leagues like Draftstreet.
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You got a bonus pick last week and we still killed it overall. Edwin Jackson was the only ho-hum start, posting a decent ERA but failing to strike many batters out or secure a victory. The rest were on point, though, so let’s try and ride that momentum for what might be the final edition of “Stream Aim Fire” before we move to a new format. As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership wherever possible (this week it wasn’t, really).

I also want to note quickly that if the Arz/SD series were in Petco, I’d be rolling with Stults, McCarthy and Cashner. As it is, though, it’s going to be nearly 100 degrees at Chase Field, pumping up the likely run scoring environment for that series. Chase has been uncommonly friendly so far but won’t be as things heat up.

A.J. Griffin (49% owned) – The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks up a bit from his stellar rookie season, but Griffin is still a decent fantasy option. The decline in ground ball rate is also of some concern, as is the ridiculous 24.1% line drive rate. So why stream a 4.20 FIP given all of these negative indicators? In a word, Astros. The Streamin’ ‘Stros continue to be an effective strategy (and unfortunately the Marlins don’t provide us with any options for Friday and Saturday), as they have a below-average wOBA and a well above-average strikeout rate. Last time he faced Houston, he posted 8 strikeouts in six innings, allowing eight baserunners and just a pair of runs. Dial it up again.

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I jinxed it. Got all fat and happy with a couple of weeks of success and trusted my gut a little too much. Straily fail, Marcum (continued) fail, Slowey mega-fail. Do I still believe in these guys? Not really with Slowey, but I stand by the fact that Straily has plus talent (though he’ll be sent down soon after another bad start Wednesday), while Marcum is still working his way through myriad problems. Onward and upward, streamers. Trust me one more time, as we may have a format change for next week. (And hey, if you want some confirmation I’m not completely full of it, I AM doing well in Fangraphs the Game for starting pitchers. It’s something, I guess.) As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership, roughly, when the streamers available allow.

Edwin Jackson (25% owned) – I recommended him last weekend and he did us no harm, so let’s roll the dice again, shall we? The Mets strike out at an above-average clip and are a below-average offense. They do take a fair number of walks, though, and Jackson’s control is yet to come into form this season (9.9% walk rate, his highest since 2007). Still, Jackson gets the strikeouts you seek and has a 3.50 FIP and 3.70 xFIP sitting below his 6.02 ERA. He’s not the best bet for a win thanks to anemic run support from his Cubs, but he should be safe for the ratios and punch-outs.
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