Author Archive

How to Manage Gerardo Parra

Adam Eaton’s impending return is certainly a cause for concern for Gerardo Parra owners. Those who scooped up the Venezuelan outfielder upon Eaton’s then reported 6-8 week injury have reaped the rewards of a .300 average, just under 25 runs scored and four stolen bases. The issue now with Parra is the same issue as spring training began. There are too many outfielders in Arizona for all of them to get equal playing time, and Parra is the quintessential fourth outfielder when looking at the other available options.
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Is Craig Kimbrel Broken?

After putting together one of the best single seasons in relief pitcher history last season, Craig Kimbrel has ran into a rough patch in the early portions of this year, with many asking if anything is “wrong” with the flame thrower. With three blown saves and a 3.38 ERA compared to his career mark of 1.61, the first glance would point to there being some type of issue. However, when you realize he has thrown just 13.1 innings it becomes less evident. We all know how weighing early season small samples can distort analysis, and that is especially true with relief pitchers.
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What to Make of Everth Cabrera’s Hot Start

Everth Cabrera is off to a relatively hot start to the season and has seemed to make strides in certain areas that were causes for concern entering the season. He has already matched his home run total of last season and his strikeout rate has dropped six percent while keeping his walk rate at a similar level as last season. This has resulted in his wRC+ jumping from 87 to 114 with a BABIP that is equal to his career norm. Now, will he continue to produce and be a shortstop who should be starting in 12 team formats? At this point, I have confidence in Cabrera continuing to add value and I am looking to acquire him in any leagues where I am struggling at second or shortstop.
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Buy High on Starling Marte

Starling Marte is off to an incredible start, and nobody should be surprised about it. He does not have a great walk rate, his strikeout rate is a bit concerning given that fact, and he relies on a rather high BABIP to produce – so when he runs into tough luck at the plate he won’t be much use whatsoever. Regardless, his combination of power and speed make him a player who is in for the long haul and not just an early season streak.

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Buy High on Paul Maholm?

How real is Paul Maholm’s start? The soft-tossing left-hander has not allowed a run to score in 20.1 innings while striking out over 25% of the batters he has faced so far. With a fastball velocity of 86.9 miles per hour, it is easy to expect the strikeout rate to drop and the ERA to subsequently rise. Even with those certainties, Maholm is still a better than thought of starting pitcher. He is essentially what Mark Buehrle was when he was Maholm’s age, a starter who will rely on command and deception to get hitters out, but Maholm has seen his strikeout rate steadily climbing over the past four years, from 12.1% to 14.1% to 17.8% and this year’s 25.3% rate.

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Is Dexter Fowler In For a Breakout?

After getting off to a red hot start last week with four home runs, a .370 average and a stolen base to boot, Dexter Fowler is a player getting and deserving of a lot of fantasy love. The question is whether the slender center fielder can keep the offense up after hitting only 29 home runs in four seasons before his hot first week.
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Kyle Seager Still Seems a Bit Undervalued

Entering his second full season of major league play, most projection systems have Kyle Seager taking at least a minor step back in terms of his overall fantasy production. ZiPS and Steamer have him dropping to 15 and 14 home runs respectively, while Bill James is the only system held on FanGraphs that has him matching his total stolen base output from last season.

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Target J.R. Graham In Dynasty League Drafts

J.R. Graham recently was drafted in the third round of an expert league dynasty league I participate in. While that sounds early, consider that each of the 20 teams has 28 keepers, so a majority of the top 100 prospects were already owned and kept before the draft. Regardless, I feel silly for not taking him earlier, though I only had a first round pick and had a glaring need at second base – along with a number of prospects in the high minors. I had him pegged with my third round pick, but he went before I had the opportunity to grab him – my second round pick was traded before the draft. I have a pretty good feeling the owner who drafted him is going to feel great about that pick throughout Graham’s progression through the upper minors and into his time as a major leaguer.

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Freddie Freeman is an Undervalued Roto Asset

While he is far from an elite first baseman, Freddie Freeman should be a big target for fantasy players on draft day this season. At just 23-years-old, Freeman already has two seasons of more than 20 home runs and owns a career 115 wRC+.

The biggest reason to be bullish in regards to Freeman is how he improved in almost every area you would want a second year player to improve in. His strikeout rate dropped from 22.4% to 20.8%, his walk rate rose from 8.3% to 10.3%, his ISO rose from .166 to .196, and his line drive rate jumped from 23% to 26% with his fly ball rate jumping from 34.6% to 36.9%. The big drop from a fantasy perspective was his average, which dropped from .282 to .259, a notable decrease that matters for leagues that still use batting average as a category. While his .339 rookie BABIP probably was a bit on the high end of what to expect, his career BABIP of .315 looks more reasonable than the .295 mark he posted last year.

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Martin Prado’s Consistency and Flexibility Make Him Undervalued

Being eligible at multiple positions always raises a player’s appeal. Being able to move a guy from first base or outfield, and second or short for instance are common and valuable. Martin Prado has taken the role of Chone Figgins of a half decade ago, being eligible across almost every position while also being an above average fantasy player to boot.

While Prado does not wow at any one specific roto category, he is rather consistent and added a whole new dimension to his game last year with his legs. The concept of consistency will be challenged by those that point out his injury-riddled 2011 campaign, but the season is a clear statistical outlier when you notice his batting averages of .320, .307, .307, and .301 in all other seasons with more than 200 plate appearances. He has also added four straight seasons of double digit home runs, despite hitting just 10 last season.

Prado has also straightened out his walk-to-strikeout ratio to a near even rate, which should allow him to get on base at high rates at the top of an offense that is expected to perform at a high level. In Prado, you are looking at a player that should be able to produce double digit home runs, double digit steals, a .300 average, a lot of runs, and a respectable amount of RBI for a top of the order hitter. Being able to contribute at least somewhat in all five categories while also being eligible at outfield, third base, shortstop, and second base (depending on the league, he played 10 games at each of the positions) makes Prado an extremely undervalued fantasy option. Three of those four positions are rather scarce, and he is good enough to be a player who won’t hurt your team’s production if you have to play him in the outfield either.

The one question will be whether speed remains a big part of his game. He set career highs in steals with 17 and triples with six, but has never been a player noted for his swift feet prior to last season. In fact, stealing bases was something he really struggled at before last year, as he posted as many seasons with more stolen bases than times caught as the inverse. But when following Prado throughout his career, it is clear that he is the type of player who focuses on getting better at certain aspects of the sport. Last year, becoming a better defender and taking advantage of extra bases were clearly his focuses. As a player who consistently learns and becomes a quality defender at new positions, it should not come of that much of a surprise that he would look to and succeed at improving at other aspects of his game. Maybe he steals a few fewer bases and gets caught a few more times, but I would be surprised with fewer than 10 stolen bases. That is not enough to make him a “speed demon,” but coupled with the rest of his game being respectable, he certainly will be able to add value to teams on a daily basis. Consistency and flexibility are two important aspects of the fantasy world, and you know what you will get with Martin Prado on an annual basis and you can essentially use him as the Braves do, wherever he is needed most.