We’re not even two full weeks into the 2016 season. I’d give the typical blanket small sample sizes warning, but instead I’d advise reading Mike Podhorzer’s piece from earlier in the week. I agree with the premise of doing nothing, but Mike discusses exceptions (injuries) and readers also brought up exceptions and reasons for making early-season moves in the comments. I routinely draft one to two players who are disabled-list eligible in my leagues so that that I can speculate on players who flash something intriguing in the season’s first few weeks. Chris Tillman is just the type of player I’m talking about. I’m writing this article in advance of his third start of the season Thursday night, so the PITCHf/x data and numbers are from his first two starts. As you’ve probably guessed, the PITCHf/x data is enticing.  Read the rest of this entry »

It’s easy to be tempted to overreact to the small sample size of strong performances very early in the season. Like many fantasy pundits before me, I’ll continue the tradition of preaching patience with your best players and your preseason evaluations. That doesn’t mean, however, that you should be sitting on your hands. Three things I keep tabs on especially closely in the first few weeks of the season are PITCHf/x data, lineup constructions and playing time distribution. Colleague Scott Spratt tackled fastball leaders in the bullpen and Jeff Sullivan discussed velocity in depth relating to King Felix’s first start. I wont’ tackle PITCHf/x data in this piece — as others have done so already — but I will look at a few playing time situations that might be sorting themselves out as well as a few players whose stock is on the rise as a result of their lineup spot.

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In 2015, just 41 players hit 25 homers or more. Lowering the cut line to 20 homers bumps the total of players to reach that threshold up to 64. As one of the standard scoring categories, homers are desired, but there are only so many dingers to go around. Getting top-shelf power is usually attached to a premium draft selection, but the following three players hit 24 or more homers in 2015 and are being selected after pick 265 on average in NFBC drafts as of March 24th.

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Making bold predictions is one of my favorite activities in advance of an upcoming baseball season. It allows me — and the other writers partaking in the bold predictions series — to identify the bandwagons we’re on (or perhaps even driving). While now is the time of fluffy stories about players being in the best shape of their lives and poised for career years, not all is rainbows and butterflies. Below, you’ll find a few not so friendly bold predictions, too.

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Everyone loves value, and paying down at pitcher is quite popular — even in writer/expert leagues. Waiting on pitchers puts some extra pressure on hitting on value plays to offset the lack of a “true” ace. That’s not to say the following pitchers will perform like fantasy aces, but they do appear poised to outperform their draft positions — some by a significant amount, in my opinion. Each of the five pitchers highlighted below is being selected outside of the top-50 starting pitchers in NFBC drafts, just one is being selected inside the top-200 picks on average, and three of the five are being selected, on average, outside of the top-250 players.

*NFBC ADP data current as of March 10th. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Exciting, nail-biting position battles for the Giants are nowhere to be found. Buster Posey is the starter behind the plate, and working around the horn from first base to third base, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy will fill out the starting spots in the infield. Prior to signing Denard Span in early January, an intriguing starting battle could have been in the cards in the outfield, alas, the starting spots are sewn up out there, too. Span will slot in center field, Angel Pagan will man left field and Hunter Pence will handle right field duties. The lineup battles for the Giants are reserved for, um, the reserves. Standard mixed-leaguers are unlikely to garner much value from this piece, but large mixed-league gamers and NL-only gamers might find some names to file away for watch lists. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The Cardinals starters — and even their reserves — are mostly set. Jedd Gyorko was acquired in return for Jon Jay and should serve as the primary backup to Matt Carpenter at third base, Jhonny Peralta at shortstop and Kolten Wong at second base. None of the starters ahead of Gyorko are in danger of losing their starting jobs, but should any of them suffer an injury, the former Padre could have modest deep-league value as a middle infielder with average to above average power (.158 ISO and 49 homers in 1,426 career plate appearances), albeit with an ugly average (.247 last year and .236 for his career). That said, there’s no playing time battle at second base, shortstop or third base. There is, however, a fierce battle to be waged at first base. The outfield is essentially settled, but there is one position worth monitoring during the year. Read the rest of this entry »

In keeper and dynasty leagues, keeping one on the present and the other on the future is the norm. Balancing now with later results in some difficult decisions, and moving a player of Carlos Gomez’s ilk (he ranked eighth with a 7.31 average pick in NFBC drafts entering the year) amidst a disappointing season is the type of difficult decision gamers are presented. His value isn’t as high as it was entering the season, but there are a variety of reasons why I’d suggest moving him now as opposed to waiting for him to — hopefully — go on a heater. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re nearing the midpoint of the season, and a trio of players standout as potential difference makers for the stretch run. Included in that trio is a second baseman coming off a scorching hot stint at the Triple-A level. An outfielder I thoroughly pounded the drum for in the preseason remains intriguing to me despite the fact he’ll almost certainly fail to live up to the hype I bestowed upon him. Finally, a southpaw on the mend should be back soon to bolster his club’s rotation, and he could be a fantasy asset if he doesn’t suffer any setbacks in his continued recovery from Tommy John surgey. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m a sucker for velocity. If a pitcher throws hard enough, I’m willing to forgive more warts on their profile. With that in mind, I’ve fully accepted Mike Foltynewicz as a viable back of the rotation, mixed league arm with upside. Deductive reading skills probably led you to the conclusion he throws hard, and your reading skills haven’t failed you. Among starters who have pitched a minimum of 40 innings, his 94.8 mph average four-seam fastball velocity ranks tied with Stephen Strasburg for the eighth highest. His two-seam fastball checks in with an average velocity of 94.4 mph, tied for the 12th highest mark. He throws his two heaters a whopping 74.1% of the time. Read the rest of this entry »