Earlier this season, I introduced a new pitcher metric – Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI). It is a way to aggregate the six possible plate discipline outcomes into one simple quantity. By using plate discipline data alone, wPDI highlights the percentage of deceptive/effective pitches thrown.

Some lesser known undervalued pitchers who were revealed by wPDI in 2018 included Domingo German, Marco Gonzales, Will Smith and Ryan Pressly. Of course, wPDI also confirmed stars such as Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aroldis Chapman.

You can find the definitions and indexes of wPDI in its introductory article, found here.

Here is a quick reminder on what the six possible plate discipline outcomes look like:

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Introduction

We are now rapidly approaching the major league trade deadline of July 31. In our own fantasy baseball leagues, we often try to mimic real-life – and trading is no different. We set up an arbitrary date in the 2^nd half of the baseball season, in which we agree to cease trading with our league mates for the remainder of the season.

Some leagues set their internal deadline a few days following the major league one. Some leagues set the deadline to be the All-Star game. Whatever your league’s trade stopping point may be, the idea is to prevent last minute unfairness or possible collusion. As a natural byproduct, having that set date often sparks some league excitement in the waning trading hours!

The title of this article is, The Mathematics of a Fair Fantasy Trade. Often, leagues will allow its individual team members (or commissioner) to vote upon and potentially veto a trade which they deem as “unfair.” These leagues will often state in their constitutions ideas resembling:

All trades should be “fair.” A trade does not necessarily need to be “good” for both sides.

The above verbiage is taken verbatim from the constitution of one of my home leagues. For a number of my other leagues, their bylaws also state something similar. League guidelines often emphasize the notion that fair trades aren’t necessarily good for both sides. They claim that a fair fantasy baseball trade does not necessarily have to be a good one.

I completely disagree with that premise. The truth is that they are one and the same. Any trade that is good for both sides is a fair one. Any trade that is fair, has the realistic potential to benefit both teams.

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Previously, I looked at the hitter and pitcher auction bargains of 2019 at mid-season. These were the players that have earned the most rotisserie value, net of their cost to roster.

Now let’s turn our attention to the players who have lost the most profit in the first half of 2019, who I will refer to as the value drainers. These are the largest under-performers (to date), relative to their pre-season auction values.

To remind everyone:

• $Value refers to the accumulated 5×5 rotisserie value of each player, scaled to a full-season.
• $AAV refers to the average auction cost to purchase the player pre-season.
• $Bargain is the difference between the $Value and the $AAV.

For this exercise – In order to calculate $Value, I use NFBC roster settings and scoring parameters. Actual $AAV data is used to determine the opportunity cost. For the full methodology of how these player bargains are calculated, please refer to my introductory post. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I looked at the 2019 auction hitter bargains at mid-season. Now let’s dive into the most profitable pitchers of the first half.

To remind everyone, we aren’t looking here for the highest earning pitchers of 2019 – we are looking at pitchers with the largest values net of their opportunity cost to acquire. Gerrit Cole has earned nearly $24 of fantasy auction value – making him the 7^th highest earning pitcher. However, with his $36 average auction value – he technically is in the red as far as profitability goes.

For the methodology employed and the terms used in the ensuing leaderboards, please refer to my previous post on the 2019 Fantasy Baseball Auction Bargains at Mid-Season – Batters edition.

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There are two different and distinct ways to kick off each season in fantasy baseball. I am referring to the two popular ways to fill teams’ rosters pre-season – namely snake drafts and auctions. In either method of commencement, the goal is to accumulate the most player statistics for the forthcoming season.

However, drafts differ from auctions in the value proposition of roster slots – which is static for snake drafts. Unless you are able to trade draft picks, you are cemented with those specific slots that in turn correspond to fixed levels of fantasy value. At an auction, the distribution of acquired values may vary more widely.

The predominant first overall snake draft selection in just about any fantasy format (or depth) this year was Mike Trout. The impetus for that is easy to explain. Trout is the player with a tremendous (dare I say the highest) floor of talent, a high upside of statistics to accumulate, and a proven track record to back everything up. In economic terms, he provided the most potential value with the least amount of risk.

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It has been a little while since I introduced to you my Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) for pitchers. wPDI is a (new) plate discipline index metric that aims to meaningfully aggregate the frequency of pitcher plate discipline outcomes into one composite figure. A pitcher who generates a lot of contact in the zone will have a lower wPDI, while a pitcher who generates a lot of swings and misses out of the zone will have a higher one, etc.

We are now almost halfway into the 2019 season. Let’s check up on the 2019 wPDI Leaderboard for RPs – i.e. the relief pitchers who are excelling in plate discipline.

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Earlier this season on FanGraphs, Ben Clemens embarked on a journey to search for a player similar to Mike Trout. Now of course, no one in the past half-decade has come close to replicating Trout’s production – but it was a fun exercise in player comparison analysis. My colleague found that Tommy Pham was Trout’s closest match.

Consider the following blind resumes for 2019:

The three players profile very similarly. They all have a fly-ball tilt to their batted ball tendencies, with few line drives. They all have large HR/FB ratios, and each have high hard-hit and medium-hit rates.

By the title of this article, you likely have already guessed the true name of one of the above lines. Player A is none other than Khris Davis.

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Introduction:

If you are reading this article, you likely play fantasy baseball. You are already well aware of the FAAB extravaganza which occurred two weeks ago. If your fantasy squad is sitting 40 points out of the money, the lure of an impact prospect on your roster was incredibly enticing. The peer pressure of bidding on a top 10 prospect surely lured you in to spend significant free agent resources on those young rookies.

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI), was created by FanGraphs’ own Justin Mason. It is a compilation of 315 fantasy baseball experts – all who put out content one way or another (writing, projections, podcasts, etc.). The experts were divided into twenty-one 15-team 5×5 mixed roto leagues, with NFBC rules and regulations.

You can find out more about TGFBI and follow the experts here. You can listen to me regularly on the official TGFBI analysis podcast, called “Beat the Shift” right here.

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Introduction

I made the following controversial proclamation earlier this year – that Chris Archer is highly overvalued by fantasy owners. I go even further to say that in all but deep mixed leagues and mono leagues – continually rostering the right hander would be a poor use of fantasy resources.

My contention with Archer’s value stems from his ratio stats:

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Today, I wanted to highlight a few catchers that caught my eye. Currently, all of these players are options only for mono leagues, or for the deepest of two-catcher mixed leagues. I feel that these players are under-owned or under-valued or are simply worth monitoring.

Remember – deep league catchers are not going to give you a full or broad base of statistics. Catchers hardly steal bases, not even the ones suited for shallow leagues. As a fantasy owner – what you hope to attain from a catcher in the #20–30 range is a player that possesses at least one skill. You want a catcher who either can provide you with a modest power boost, or someone who can accumulate a decent on-base average, or a catcher that will occasionally kick in some Runs/RBIs. Anything else is gravy.

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