If closer drama is what you’re looking for, you can find all you need in St. Louis, where the Cardinals are hosting the Brewers. For the second night in a row, the teams went into extra innings after both bullpens floundered in the ninth inning. In Tuesday night’s affair, Bud Norris was entrusted to keep the Cardinals knotted in a 1-1 tie, with Greg Holland apparently being given the night off. Norris yielded a two-out RBI single to Domingo Santana. That set the Brewers up with a save situation, and fantasy owners everywhere waited anxiously to see who would get the call.

It turned out to be Taylor Williams, who had struck out the side in the eighth inning in his second appearance of the season. However, he was removed after walking Tommy Pham and allowing a sacrifice bunt to Greg Garcia. A more familiar face, Jacob Barnes, came in to face Dexter Fowler, and he promptly unleashed two wild pitches that allowed Pham to tie the game.
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As we are not even two weeks into the season, it is ridiculously early to draw many conclusions from season-to-date stats. Still, most of us aren’t just standing pat with our opening day rosters, and it’s not just injuries and playing time trends that are guiding our add/drop moves.

It’s certainly not mere coincidence that Jakob Junis is coming off Monday night’s scoreless seven-inning performance against the Mariners and he is atop the most-added lists on ESPN and CBS for starting pitchers. Owners have not been scared off by Junis’ total of nine strikeouts over 14 innings, as they have been drawn in by his 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP.
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After a relatively calm first week for closers, the fantasy world got rocked on Thursday night. While the pitching the ninth inning of the Brewers’ series opener against the Cubs at Miller Park — a game that was firmly in the grasp of the visiting team — Corey Knebel hopped uncomfortably after making his second pitch to Tommy La Stella, then quickly fell to the mound. Knebel sustained an injury to his left hamstring, and according to multiple reports, he will undergo an MRI on Friday to determine the exact nature and severity of the issue.
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Even if you don’t own a turntable, it’s time to shop for some 33s.

Each Thursday, I’ll be recommending hitters to pick up who are owned in 33 percent of leagues or fewer on CBSSports.com and Fantrax. I’ve chosen to use these sites’ ownership rates as a guide, as they tend to be higher than those on ESPN or Yahoo. If I were to use the latter two sites as a guide for identifying players who are available in at least two-thirds of leagues, in reality, some of those players would be unavailable to many owners who play on CBS and Fantrax.
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We are not quite a week into the 2018 season, but as far as surprising stories go, Kenley Jansen being one of the shakiest closers has to be at the top of the list. On Tuesday night, the Dodgers dropped to 2-4, as Zack Godley outdueled Clayton Kershaw, and Jansen got the night off. The Diamondbacks opened up their lead in the seventh inning against Scott Alexander, and with the Dodgers failing to rally, there was no need for Dave Roberts to call on his closer. We will have to wait at least another day for Jansen to reassure his fantasy owners.
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It’s not easy to get strikeouts when you don’t get batters to swing much. It’s even more difficult when you avoid the strike zone.

Over the previous three years, a qualified starting pitcher has induced swings at a rate lower than 44.0 percent over the course of a season only 23 times. Of those, only Trevor Bauer, Jose Quintana and Tyson Ross have had a single season with a strikeout rate of at least 24.0 percent, and none has had more than one season with a rate that high. By contrast, there were only seven occurrences of a strikeout rate below 24.0 percent among the 23 pitcher-seasons with the highest swing rates over the same period. Bauer and Quintana both elevated their K-rates last season, and they were able to do that partly because they located their pitches in the strike zone at near-normal rates of 44.4 and 44.8 percent rates, respectively. Ross registered a 25.8 percent K-rate in 2015, even though he induced swings infrequently and displayed subpar control. However, no qualified starter was better than Ross at getting whiffs on pitches outside the strike zone that season.
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Now that the first series of the season are the in the books, it’s time to break out the Bullpen Report closer grid. At the conclusion of each installment, we will list the current closer, a color-coded rating for the stability of the closer situation and the two most likely closer replacements in the event of an injury or role change for the incumbent.

The initial version of the grid is practically a sea of green. Though a few closers have had their first meltdowns of the season already, none has endangered himself to the point of earning the dreaded red designation. Only three situations — the Orioles, White Sox and Cardinals — are currently coded as yellow. The first two teams entered the season with co-closers, while the Cardinals are going with a committee until newly-signed Greg Holland is ready to report to the big-league team. Holland is working with Advanced Class A Palm Beach for now, but once he is promoted, he will get the closer’s spot in the grid. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that should happen in 10 days, when Holland will be eligible to be promoted.
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The first day of the 2018 season did not lack for closer drama, and the bumpy ride for some fantasy owners began even before the first pitch. After weeks of speculation over how Cardinals manager Mike Matheny would split up save chances among Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons and Luke Gregerson (hamstring), once he returns from the 10-day disabled list, Greg Holland stepped into the picture and shredded all of those narratives. The Cardinals signed Holland to a one-year, $14 million deal, and he instantly became the uncontested closer in St. Louis.

A cursory glance at Holland’s 2017 stat line with Colorado — particularly his 3.61 ERA — might give the impression that he had a, you know, rocky first season back from Tommy John surgery, but bulk of his difficulties came during a three-week period in August. During that slump, Holland coughed up 14 runs in 6.1 innings. He had a sub-2.00 ERA prior to that stretch, and went back to a sub-2.00 ERA for the period following the downturn. Even Holland’s 29.8 percent strikeout rate from last season, which was well below his marks from his peak years of 2013 and 2014, could have been an illusion. His 15.2 percent swinging strike rate and 44.3 percent swing rate look right in place with his rates from his best seasons.
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In combing through last season’s reliever rankings, something looked a little different. Among CBSSports.com’s top 25 relief-eligible pitchers in Roto value, there were five relievers with fewer than five saves and no more than one start who made the cut. If you toss in Mike Minor, who notched six saves, he joins Chris Devenski, Chad Green, Yusmeiro Petit, Andrew Miller and Matt Albers to make it an even half-dozen. In 2016, only Brad Brach and Nate Jones met those criteria and finished among the top 25.

What Brach and Jones had in common was tossing 70-plus innings with strong strikeout rates, decent control and low BABIPs. Brach also helped himself by vulturing 10 wins. From the 2017 cohort, Devenski and Petit both exceeded 80 innings, and Green threw 69 frames. Miller was limited to 62.2 innings, but he was still good enough to squeak in at No. 23. It’s hardly surprising that the number of non-closers in the upper echelons of fantasy relievers grew, given that starting pitchers threw fewer innings per start. The trend of managers relying more on relievers doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, so targeting the top non-closers now needs to be a part of the draft prep process.
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For all of the talk of the increase in power in 2017, the number of 20-homer hitters among shortstops decreased from 13 to 10. Yet a few players at the position did have dramatic power surges, and none was more notable than Francisco Lindor’s. He led all shortstops with 33 home runs, besting Didi Gregorius and Paul DeJong by eight (though DeJong and Carlos Correa could have made it a contest if they had approached Lindor’s 723 plate appearances). Not only did he more than double his prior season’s total of 15 home runs, but Lindor increased his doubles from 30 to 44 and his Iso from .134 to .232.

There is not much mystery as to the source of Lindor’s newfound power. While his average exit velocity ticked slightly downward from 88.5 to 88.1 mph (per Baseball Savant), his average launch angle soared from 7.7 to 13.7 degrees. More airborne balls meant that Lindor was hitting for greater distance, but he also made more frequent outs on balls in play. After batting .313 and .301 in 2015 an 2016, respectively, his overall batting average dropped to .273, even though he struck out at the lowest rate of his career. His career BABIP trend reads as follows: .348, .324, 275.
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