Has the switch been flipped in St. Louis?

On Sunday, Mike Matheny brought Bud Norris in for the eighth inning with a 6-2 lead against the Reds. Greg Holland pitched the ninth, but by that point, the Cardinals had expanded their lead to seven runs. On Tuesday night, Matheny sent a clearer signal that he may be close to re-installing Holland as his closer. He called on Holland to pitch the top of the ninth inning in 5-5 game with the Mets, and he responded with a perfect inning.
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Here in the final week of April, sample sizes are starting to build up, but there is still a lot of statistical weirdness out there. Just in the walk rate leaderboard alone there are some confounding data for fantasy owners to ponder. Jose Quintana and Michael Wacha with double digit rates? Vince Velasquez among the lowest one-fourth? It’s like I hardly know these guys.
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Brandon Morrow is now a perfect 4 for 4 in save chances, but his most recent save was far from perfect. In Sunday’s series finale against the Rockies, Morrow allowed a pair of singles to Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story and then loaded the bases with a two-out walk to David Dahl. With Ian Desmond at the plate, Morrow uncorked a wild pitch that initially appeared to allow the Rockies to slice the Cubs’ two-run lead in half. Arenado had been called safe on a close play at the plate, but he was called out on review.
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With managers relying more on relievers and less on starters last season, and with the emergence of fantasy-relevant non-closers like Chris Devenski, Chad Green and Archie Bradley, fantasy owners have been taking more interest in relievers who aren’t in line to get steady saves. Andrew Miller has long been on the fantasy radar, and he is currently owned in more than 60 percent of ESPN and CBS leagues. However, Bradley and Adam Ottavino are about as popular as some lower-end closers, as both are owned in more than one-third of the leagues on ESPN and CBS. Devenski, Green and Dellin Betances aren’t far behind in popularity.

On Thursday, the season reached its three-week mark, so we are not quite one-eighth through the schedule. In 2017, only five relievers exceeded 80 innings, but so far this season, there are already 43 relievers who have pitched at least 10 innings. Not everyone in this group will keep up this pace, and it’s not hard to imagine that some who stay on this pace will wear down and may even need some DL time.
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This week’s exploration of lightly-owned hitters includes an aging veteran, a versatile defender with upside and a slugger on the rise. As always, each of the players featured here is worth considering in mixed leagues with at least 15 teams.

Note: Ownership percentages are listed in parentheses, with CBS listed first and Fantrax listed second.

Jose Bautista, OF/3B(?), Braves (9/27): The Braves signed Bautista to a minor league deal on Wednesday, and they are sending him to extended spring training to see if he can handle playing third base. If all goes well, Bautista would spend some time in the Florida State Leauge — perhaps within a week — and then presumably take over third base duties from Ryan Flaherty. Though Johan Camargo was activated from the 10-day disabled list on Wednesday, he would likely fill a utility role, so playing time shouldn’t be a concern for Bautista. In his final season with the Blue Jays, Bautista showed he still had some power left in the tank, slamming 23 homers, but both his hard contact and overall contact rates were on the wane. Taking a flier on Bautista is not without its risks, but if your team is short on power and well-positioned for batting average, he could be a good fit.
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When a pitcher starts off a season with a new look, it’s hard to know whether or not you can trust their success. That’s especially true when that “new look” involves a change that we generally assume to be negative.

This is precisely the situation we find ourselves in with regard to Alex Wood. The Dodgers’ lefty has compiled a career-high K-BB% (23.3 percentage points) through four starts, even though his average sinker velocity is more than 3 mph lower than where it was last April. He seems to be carrying a red flag with the words “SELL HIGH” boldly emblazoned on it, but could it be that he has found a new way to succeed?
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Heading into Monday’s schedule, the Braves were the only team in the majors to not have recorded a save, but Arodys Vizcaino put an end to that shutout. In limiting the Phillies to a Nick Williams single in the top of the ninth inning, Vizcaino protected a 2-1 lead and gave himself his first save of 2018.

Much of Vizcaino’s save drought can be tied to the Braves having played in several lopsided contests early in the season. When he was finally presented with a save opportunity last Wednesday against the Nationals, he let a one-run lead evaporate by giving up a solo home run to Matt Adams. Even if Vizcaino had some save chances earlier on, he may not have fared well. He walked six batters over his first four appearances, which covered 3.2 innings, and he threw a paltry 52.4 percent of his pitches for strikes.
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Six of Sunday’s 15 scheduled games were postponed, robbing us of a potential opportunity to see if Arodys Vizcaino could get on track for the Braves or whether Joakim Soria or Nate Jones gets the next save opportunity for the White Sox.

Despite the limited schedule, we got yet another chapter in the Brewers’ bullpen saga. Craig Counsell brought Matt Albers into a 2-2 tie with the Mets in the bottom of the ninth inning, and he got within one out of delivering his team into extra innings. Instead of prolonging the game, Albers allowed Wilmer Flores‘ walk-off solo homer. Despite having pitched only once over the previous four days, Jacob Barnes was nowhere to be found in the seventh and eighth innings, as Counsell chose to set Albers up with Jeremy Jeffress and Dan Jennings. Barnes has apparently pitched his way out of the Brewers’ closer mix.
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Thursday’s slate was short on games and also short on any sort of closer developments. We also got a break from the ongoing late-inning soap opera being acted out for us by the Brewers and Cardinals. The former team had the night off, while the latter blew out the Reds, 13-4.

Oddly enough, the Cardinals’ bullpen produced one of the two saves recorded on Thursday. Mike Mayers pitched the final three innings, giving the late-inning contingent a rest during a lopsided game. Mayers shut out the Reds over his three frames, allowing only a double, a single and a walk while striking out two batters.
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Each Thursday, I’ll be looking at the top waiver targets who could be available in your deeper leagues. Every player who will be included in this series will have an ownership rate of 33 percent or lower in CBS and Fantrax leagues, which is a pretty good indication of these players being available in at least some mixed leagues with at least 15 teams.

Note: Ownership percentages are listed in parentheses, with CBS listed first and Fantrax listed second.

Franchy Cordero, OF, Padres (9/27): To be honest, I worried that by the time I wrote this, Cordero would be too popular to include in this week’s column. He is an industry favorite, probably in no small part because of the splash he made on Statcast leaderboards during his brief time up with the Padres last season. Both his barrels per batted ball event ratio (14.3 percent) and exit velocity on flies and liners (97.3 mph) placed Cordero in the top 20 for hitters with at least 30 batted balls.
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