In the Astros’ series finale against the Mariners on Wednesday, we saw Hector Rondon get the save, even though incumbent closer Ken Giles had not pitched in three days. The Astros did not have a save situation in Thursday night’s opener against the Rangers, but with a four-run lead heading into the bottom of the ninth inning, they had the next-closest thing. Rondon was likely available after having thrown 20 pitches the night before, but A.J. Hinch went with Giles in the final frame. As has been his wont, Giles had some difficulties in a non-save situation, allowing a run on a pair of doubles, but it was more than good enough for the Astros to walk away with a 5-2 win.
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In Wednesday’s Bullpen Report, I chronicled the apparent changing of the guard that occurred for the White Sox’s closer situation over the course of their Tuesday doubleheader with the Twins. On Wednesday, that transition was made complete.

The White Sox held a 5-2 lead heading into the eighth inning against the Twins, and Nate Jones — who had clearly been the team’s closer just a day-and-a-half earlier — was brought in. He dispensed with his three batters quickly, but despite needing only 13 pitches, it was Joakim Soria who came out for the ninth inning. Soria, who recorded the save in the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader, yielded only a Brian Dozier single en route to his sixth save of the season.
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The White Sox’s doubleheader against the Twins on Tuesday served as a closer drama with two acts. In the first game, the Sox crusied into the bottom of the eighth inning with a 2-0 lead, and they were on the verge of something they hadn’t had since May 22 — a ninth-inning save situation. Nate Jones, who recorded the team’s last save in that game from 15 days ago, was brought in for the eighth inning to face the Twins’ 8-9-1 portion of the batting order. He retired Ehire Adrianza and Mitch Garver at the bottom of the order, but leadoff hitter Brian Dozier reached on a single. After walking Eddie Rosario, Jones allowed Miguel Sano to cut the lead to one run with an RBI single. Then Eduardo Escobar snatched the lead away with a three-run homer.
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It has been 33 days since the Mariners moved Wade LeBlanc into their rotation. In that time he has quietly made six starts, all with game scores of 50 or higher. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of the outings, compiling a 1.72 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

I say LeBlanc has done all of this quietly, because he is being ignored almost universally in mixed leagues. He is owned in 18 percent of the leagues on CBS and 10 percent of ESPN leagues. You could argue that, for all of LeBlanc’s accomplishments over the last five weeks, there are reasons to avoid him in fantasy. His track record is not exactly distinguished, and in nine prior seasons in the majors, only once did he pitch more than 80 innings. Even with the success LeBlanc has had with preventing runs and limiting baserunners this season, he is striking out batters at a pedestrian 19.1 percent rate.

According to ESPN’s Player Rater, he ranks just 55th in Roto value among starting pitchers over the past 30 days, though he ranks 29th among relief-eligible pitchers. In CBS points leagues with default settings, LeBlanc fares a little better, ranking 4oth among starters and 15th among relievers over the past 28 days.

However, this version of LeBlanc — the one of the last 33 days — has been different. He has been throwing his sinker more often, using it at a 34.0 percent rate, and it’s a pitch he throws for strikes. More importnat, he has substantially decreased his Z-Swing% on the pitch. Last season, hitters offered at his sinkers in the strike zone at a 64.1 percent rate, but this season (including his work in relief) they are swinging at it only 56.8 percent of the time in the zone. LeBlanc has also improved his control on his changeup, but when he locates it outside of the strike zone, he’s getting a few more chases, as his O-Swing% on the pitch has increased from 45.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

Since the beginning of May, LeBlanc has been almost unique in his ability to both freeze batters on good pitches and induce chases on bad ones. Last month, he and Zack Greinke were the only qualified starters to be among the 10 pitchers with the lowest Z-Swing% and the 10 pitchers with the highest O-Swing%. During that period, LeBlanc was the only one to make the top three of both lists.

The graph below includes stats for the entire 2018 season, and LeBlanc stands out, along with Greinke, Patrick Corbin and Domingo German, as a master of the freeze and the chase. What separates LeBlanc from the other three, aside from fantasy popularity, is the lack of a double-digit swinging strike rate. I have color-coded the pitchers in the graph for swinging strike rate, and the redder the dots, the fewer the whiffs. LeBlanc’s 8.0 swinging strike rate qualifies him for a very red dot.

While I did say that this version of LeBlanc is different, he has posted a high O-Swing% and low Z-Swing in the same season once before. In 2016, he got chases at a 35.7 percent rate and swings on pitches in the zone at a 64.1 percent rate. That year, however, LeBlanc allowed 14 home runs in 62 innings. He did get plenty of harmless flyballs; according to xStats.org, his popup rate was an above-average 22.6 percent. However, his high drive rate — representative of the most damaging type of contact — was 12.6 percent, as compared to the major league average of 10.0 percent.

What truly makes LeBlanc different this season is that he has made his contact-friendly approach work for him. His popup rate is up to 26.8 percent, while his high drive rate is a modest 8.0 percent. LeBlanc has allowed five home runs in 45 innings this season, and as a starter, he has given up three home runs in 31.1 innings. The sheer volume of popups has helped the lefty post a .271 BABIP on the season, and that in turn has contributed to a .240/.279/.368 slash line for opposing hitters.

To sum up, LeBlanc has been getting batters to leave his pitches in the strike zone alone and go after his pitches out of the zone. Hitters are connecting frequently when they do swing, but in contrast to his past track record, LeBlanc is not allowing them to do much damage, particularly in the form of extra-base hits. He is doing several things at an exceedingly high level except the one thing that fantasy owners typically care the most about.

Now that LeBlanc is stretched out, he should build on his grand total of one win, so he may be better than just a top-60 starting pitcher going forward. His lack of strikeouts will limit his value, but the same can be said of Kyle Hendricks, who also relies on favorable walk, called strike and soft contact rates for success. It’s taken Hendricks a while to get his due, and I suspect that even if LeBlanc continues to thrive, it will take him some time to get recognition as well. While there are good reasons to be reluctant to buy into LeBlanc right now, it’s time to take the gamble on him in deeper mixed leagues.

For the second game in a row, an Angels reliever made the ninth inning a little too interesting. On Saturday, closer Blake Parker blew a one-run lead in an eventual 3-2 extra-innings loss to the Rangers. When the Angels pulled into the ninth inning of Sunday’s series finale with a two-run lead, Mike Scioscia turned to Justin Anderson to get the save. Anderson was one pitch away from retiring the side, but Ronald Guzman sat on an inside full-count fastball to give the Rangers a baserunner. Then he walked Joey Gallo on a pitch that appeared to catch the corner of the strike zone and loaded the bases with a third straight full-count walk, this time to Shin-Soo Choo. Scioscia stuck with Anderson, who stranded all three runners by inducing a shallow fly ball from Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

In all likelihood, Parker sat out Sunday’s game due to having pitched on both Friday and Saturday, though he threw all of four pitches in the first of those appearances. It’s probably too early to read anything into Anderson getting the save chance on Sunday, but this situation bears monitoring.
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The Pirates may have been insisting that Felipe Vazquez is healthy, but something appears to be wrong. After rebounding from a string of subpar performances with solid outings on Tuesday and Wednesday, Vazquez blew his fourth save in 12 days on Thursday night against the Cardinals. He was entrusted with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning, but before he could get an out, he loaded the bases and then gave up a two-RBI single to Luke Voit. (In fairness to Vazquez, Tommy Pham reached base by way of a Sean Rodriguez fielding error.) On Vazquez’s very next pitch, Yairo Munoz homered on a 96 mph fastball in the middle of the plate for a walk-off victory.

Clint Hurdle summed up his closer’s performance when he said Vazquez “couldn’t get any swings outside the zone and they barreled up everything in the zone.” That has not only been the case for Thursday’s performance. Over his last six appearances, Vazquez has induced chases on only 26.0 percent of his pitches that have missed the strike zone. He has allowed 23 hit balls over this stretch, and nine of them have been line drives. These trends have contributed to Vazquez allowing nine runs (seven earned) on 12 hits and three walks over just 3.2 innings.
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Tuesday’s most interesting closer development actually came in a non-save situation. Felipe Vazquez — much to the surprise of many fantasy owners — reportedly said he would be ready to pitch on Tuesday, even though he had to be lifted early from Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals due to forearm discomfort. As a man of his word, Vazquez pitched the ninth inning of Tuesday night’s contest against the Cubs, even though the Pirates were behind, 8-4.

Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk concluded that Vazquez had minor flexor muscle irritation that required rest and treatment. Vazquez did seem to be fine on Tuesday, getting all three hitters he faced to ground out while averaging 100.0 mph on his fastball.
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If there is such a thing as a flyball revolution for pitchers, it appears that Blaine Hardy wants to be a part of it.

The Tigers’ 31-year-old reliever-turned-starter induced grounders at a mere 33.0 percent rate last season, but this season, he has gone extreme with a 24.1 percent rate. That might not seem like a good career move for someone who coughed up seven home runs in 33.1 innings a year ago, but he is making it work. In his 20 innings to date, Hardy has allowed two homers and a .143 Iso (which is 23 points below the American League average).
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Felipe Vazquez just hasn’t been himself lately, and now we may have an explanation. The Pirates’ closer blew his third consecutive save on Sunday, and the news got even worse, as he had to leave the game with left forearm discomfort. He was examined after Sunday’s game, and as of Monday morning, Vazquez said that he felt well enough that he expects to available on Tuesday against the Cubs.

Nonetheless, the waiver wire frenzy over a potential new Pirates closer has begun. In Yahoo and Fantrax leagues, Edgar Santana is already near the top of the most-added list for relief-eligible pitchers. It’s actually been Michael Feliz who has entered in the eighth inning to set up for Vazquez in each of his last five save chances, including Sunday’s. Just as Vazquez has struggled lately, so has Feliz, and Sunday’s difficulties made it necessary for Clint Hurdle to call on Vazquez to try to get the final five outs. Over his last three appearances, Feliz has allowed seven runs in two innings of work.
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On a day that featured only eight games on the schedule, the only real closer intrigue took place in Cincinnati. In the first Reds game that provided a save opportunity since Raisel Iglesias (biceps) went on the 10-day disabled list on Wednesday, it looked as if Amir Garrett was primed to record his first career save. The lefty relieved David Hernandez with two outs in the top of the seventh inning and a 5-2 lead against the Pirates. He proceeded to get the next four outs, three of which came by way of strikeout.

Having used only 16 pitches to get those outs, Jim Riggleman brought Garrett out for the ninth inning to finish the game. Corey Dickerson put the first blemish on Garrett’s afternoon, singling on an 0-2 pitch, but then he appeared to get back on track, striking Jose Osuna out on three pitches. Then, with one swing, Garrett’s campaign to get the save took a blow when Austin Meadows turned on a 95 mph fastball that caught the inside of the plate and pulled it for a two-run homer. With the Reds’ lead carved down to one run, Jared Hughes took over and got the final two outs, as well as the save.
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