In the preseason I wrote about why I didn’t think Robinson Cano was worth a first round pick. Before we look back at my reasoning and before I decide whether I feel similarly for 2014, let’s figure out if I was right.

The technical answer is probably that I was right, but in practicality, I was dead wrong. Cano finished as the 26th most valuable player in our end of season valuations, and he finished 13th on ESPN’s player rater. So yes, technically Cano did not produce like a first round player. But of the players you might actually have considered taking over Cano in the first, only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen turned out to be more valuable. If you took Cano in the first, you were probably pleased with what you got from him. You were certainly happier than the owners who took Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Albert Pujols, and Justin Verlander.

Above I linked to my original article on Cano, but, in summation, I didn’t like Cano for three reasons.

1. I didn’t think 2012’s power surge was sustainable.
2. I was concerned about him turning 30.
3. I was concerned about his struggles against lefties. Read the rest of this entry »

According to our end of season valuations, Chris Davis was not only the most valuable first baseman but also the most valuable player in the game. And that’s just based on production. When you consider his draft day price and ADP, he’s probably one of the greatest values in the history of fantasy baseball. It’s obvious he won’t be able to repeat the draft day value, but if he is going to live up to his draft day value next year, he’ll have to produce similarly. Can he? Read the rest of this entry »

When I hit the Rotgraphs internal message board this week it appeared that most catchers of consequence had been claimed by my colleagues for ‘catcher week.’ But Brian McCann and A.J. Pierzynski remained unclaimed, and the two seemed like a logical pairing for discussion given they are both possibilities to be signed by the Texas Rangers this offseason. Read the rest of this entry »

When tasked with choosing an MVP and an LVP, I decided to look at my own teams to see if there were any players in common on my good teams and any players in common on my bad teams. Of the six mixed leagues I played in, I had finishes of first, third, fourth, fourth, seventh and ninth. The only player that was on all four of my top four teams was Anibal Sanchez. While my two crappy teams had some similarities in terms of roster construction, one of the only players that was on both teams was Jarrod Parker. But it wouldn’t be fair if I failed to point out that my first round picks in those bad leagues were Matt Kemp and Albert Pujols. That definitely hurt me more than Parker did. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m sure this was common in a lot of the bold prediction pieces from the spring, but I caught some flack in the comments for not being bold enough. It turns out that only four of my ten predictions panned out, so either I’m woefully incompetent and can’t even make easy calls, or the predictions were bolder than they were given credit for. But I digress. Let’s talk about why I’m smart and why I’m (mostly) dumb.

Jonathan Lucroy, currently the 14th catcher being selected, will be a top ten catcher.

Of all my predictions, I’ll admit that this was one of the least bold. Lucroy was a top ten catcher on ESPN’s player rater in 2012 despite only getting 346 PA because of a stint on the DL with a broken hand. So it wasn’t a huge reach to think he’d be top ten again this year. But then again, he was going 14th on average, and he was one of only two catchers going outside the top ten that ended up finishing in the top ten. The other was Jarrod Saltalamacchia who was going 15-16 among catchers. So if I encouraged you to reach on Lucroy and take him in the 14th/15th round of a 12-team league, I’m happy with that.

In 2014, Lucroy is a borderline top five catcher. He hits a lot of line drives and has developed excellent plate discipline, so the batting average will be there. And he’s a safe bet for 15 homers, 75 RBI and and 55 runs as long as he stays healthy. But what pushes him near the top five is a little bit of speed. He stole nine bags this year and was the only top ten catcher to top four steals. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday Blake Murphy detailed how some teams are using a lot more players in their lineups late in the season so that we can identify good pitching matchups. More youngsters in the lineups means better stats for pitchers. But young hurlers don’t see as much late season experience because of innings limit concerns. This explains why a large majority of the probable starters today are guys who have been in the majors for most of the season. In my estimation, all but three or four of today’s probables have been around for most of the year.

Today’s probables also happen to be a pretty above average bunch. Below is a chart showing how today’s starters have fared this year compared to league average.

Because there are so many good starters going today, you’re probably going to need to load up on more expensive hitters facing the few bad starters today. To save some money for bats, we’ll pick some of the cheaper starters with at least decent matchups. After the jump there will be a chart showing which of today’s starters you should be stacking up hitters against and how those starters fare against hitters of each handedness, and then we’ll pick some names.

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Are the playoffs here yet? Because I’m a) tired of watching the Rangers lose, b) sweating out the day-to-day fluctuations in my big money roto league, and c) trying to find something new to say in this article twice a week. So after the jump I’m going to repeat a couple of things. First, I’ll have a chart showing how each of today’s probable starters have performed against batters of each handedness this year. And then I’ll pick a few players and recite some familiar analysis alongside them.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m going back to the well and once again providing a chart showing how today’s probable starters have performed against hitters of each handedness this season. After the jump we’ll use the chart to pick a few hitters and a starter or two.

Read the rest of this entry »

I did this on Monday as well, but below you’ll find a chart showing how today’s probable starters have fared against hitters of each handedness this year. This chart is something I create in the leaderboard section of the site, and it’s extremely helpful when picking hitters for the day. Unfortunately, the list must be created manually as there isn’t a filter for the day’s probable starters. Because inputting all the names takes a little time, I figure I’ll just do that work for you. After the jump we’ll use the chart to pick some hitters for the day. And we’ll pick a couple of starters, too.

Read the rest of this entry »

Unless I’m just missing it, I don’t believe you can create a custom leaderboard of the day’s probable starters here on the site. Other sites might have some data on the day’s starters, but I’m not aware of it. But every time I pick a lineup I want to look at how each pitcher fares against hitters of each handedness and how homer prone they are. So below you’ll see a screenshot of a custom leaderboard I created to help me pick hitters today.

If some other site is already providing something like this, please let me know and I’ll avoid posting something similar in the future. But if this is something you’d like to see again, let me know. And if you have any suggestions about different or additional stats you would find helpful if included, let me know that as well.

After the jump is the chart, and we’ll use it to pick some hitters.

Read the rest of this entry »