August xBABIP Update: The Overperformers

Yesterday, I discussed the hitters who have most underachieved their xBABIP marks. Today, I follow up on last month’s xBABIP overperformers with an update on the fantasy relevant hitters whose BABIP marks have most exceeded their xBABIP marks.

So the top two names in Jonathan Villar and J.T. Realmuto have swapped spots from last month’s list and are now exceeding their BABIP marks by nearly identical amounts. Amazingly, Villar’s BABIP remains above .400 and is virtually the same as it had been. Obviously, the inflated BABIP has done wonders for his stolen base count. How long can this really last?

Realmuto’s BABIP has also remained exactly the same, but his xBABIP has risen slightly. His allure is driven by his speed, which has resulted in 10 steals on the year. But, he has only stolen one base since July 15th in two attempts. Obviously, without the swipes, he’s not a very exciting catcher option, and this is especially so when his BABIP collapses. He won’t contribute nearly the batting average value and fewer times on base will further reduce his stolen base opportunities.

Xander Bogaerts‘ has made me look like a fool this year, but his BABIP has declined from .369 to .354 since the last update. He has also only attempted two steals over the last 30 days and his speed has been a surprise. It’s certainly an unpopular opinion, but if you own him in a keeper league, I’m dying to know what king’s ransom you could demand and receive for him.

Cheslor Cuthbert has done a superb job of replacing Mike Moustakas in Kansas City, but he pops up too often to sustain a .348 BABIP. That said, he likely has limited trade appeal, so owners might have to deal with the inevitable drop in batting average.

So Carlos Gonzalez remained in Colorado after the trade deadline and makes his first appearance on this list. Unfortunately, xBABIP is unaware of park factors, though some of the effects of the park do find their way into some of the components of the equation, such as LD%. Gonzalez’s batted ball profile isn’t all that different from his career average, but his BABIP is far above it. He’s done this before though, posting BABIP marks as high as .384 and .368 in the past. So he seems like less of a guarantee to experience a significant falloff like the rest on this list.

So Javier Baez isn’t exactly an every day player, but has still managed to find a way to the batter’s box 302 times. And he’s been exactly what fantasy owners have hoped for, delivering both power and speed. Even better, he has trimmed his strikeout rate significantly, which is a huge positive for his long-term outlook. He probably won’t maintain a .340 BABIP though, as he rarely goes the opposite way, hits lots of fly balls and not enough line drives. Since he does a little of everything, I actually would advise holding him.

One would have thought that Mark Reynolds in Coors Field would have led to a significant HR/FB rate rebound. While that hasn’t happened, it has resulted in a dramatic spike in BABIP. In fact, outside his half season during his debut 2007 when he posted a .378 BABIP, he has never been above .338, and has spent more years below the .300 level than above it. His career BABIP is essentially league average. Reynolds is still popping out often, but he has turned his fly balls into line drives. The decline in FB% to what easily represents a career low is bad for his power, but the LD% jump fueled that increase in BABIP. I doubt Reynolds maintains such an inflated BABIP, but like CarGo discussed earlier, he’s probably going to outperform given his home park.