Are You Regress-In or Regress-Out?

Ahh, hope springs eternal in April, with small samples and undeserved ratios trying their best to distract us from whether someone’s talent has changed, or maybe just their luck. But one way or another, regression is coming. It might drag things to the bad, or to the good, but time (and sample) tends to remain undefeated in the long run.

With that in mind, let’s try to see which pitchers might have some pain or joy coming soon to their fantasy ratios and play the game currently sweeping the hearts and homes of the nation, according to the most recent issue of “Official-Sounding Publication Invented by the Author, Weakly”. That’s right, it’s time to play –

Are You Regress-In or Regress-Out? (insert canned audience applause)

Regress-In: Nathan Eovaldi, TEX (Razzball SP 34)

37 IP – 3 W – 39 K – 3.93 ERA – 1.15 WHIP

Ranked overall like a backend SP2, anyone rostering Eovaldi is already happy with how April, finishing up his month with a complete-game shutout of the Yankees on April 29. But things might also go better in the future, as Eovaldi is running ratios that are holding his overall value down but that look shinier under the surface.

Eovaldi’s 3.93 ERA is backed by a sparkling 2.08 FIP but do be aware that is being propped up by a 0.25 HR/9 mark that will likely regress to the bad (he had a 1.16 HR/9 between 2020-2022). However, with a 3% BB% (4% BB from 2020-2022) that is as stellar as ever and a 27% K% that has a 13.2% SwStr% behind it, Eovaldi still rates a 3.17 xFIP (which assumes a league-average HR rate) that paints a rosier ERA future. And while Eovaldi’s 1.15 WHIP certainly isn’t bad, it’s also gotten BABIP’d to death, with batters running a .356 BABIP against him which is the fourth-highest against qualified starting pitchers.

One thing does stand out about Eovaldi’s early pitch mix, going back to 20% usage on his cutter after it sat at 10% and 13% for the previous two seasons. Same speed, and same spin but batters are having a worse time with it according to strikes:

Unfortunately, the cutter is also bearing the brunt of his aforementioned bad BABIP luck, running a .421 BABIP that’s up from a .303 BABIP in 2022 and a .271 BABIP in 2021. If things dip back down towards average on both his cutter and overall, then a dropping WHIP and ERA can still be on the table even if more home runs come knocking.

Regress-Out: Shane Bieber, CLE (Razzball SP 45)

38 IP – 2 W – 30 K – 2.96 ERA – 1.07 WHIP

It might be disappointing that Shane Bieber has been just barely a top-50 SP (drafted as SP 12) but things could be much worse considering how much value freight is being carried by his excellent (but unsupported) ratios. His 2.96 ERA is backed by a 4.04 FIP, 4.49 xFIP, and 4.80 SIERA, while the 1.07 WHIP comes with a 2.9 BB/9 (1.6 BB/9 in 2022) and a career-low .246 BABIP that’s 40-points lower than last season and 80-points lower than in 2021.

But even if you are bullish on his ratios not crashing too hard, Bieber’s lack of whiffs is becoming a serious problem, at least relative to what we’ve seen before:

The lack of whiffs is disturbing by itself but worse is that it’s not just one pitch causing the issues. No, these problems are spread out with equal love – and by “love”, I mean the batters who are loving getting fooled less:

But if the lack of whiffs doesn’t disturb you enough, how batters are behaving in and out of the zone, certainly should:

Batters are chasing fewer pitches out of the zone while swinging more (and whiffing less) at pitches in the zone. Is this generally a good direction to be moving in? I’m still not sure what we were doing by thinking we’d ever be able to fully trust a Bieber. For shame.

Regress-In: José Berríos, TOR (Razzball SP 87)

34 IP – 2 W – 34 K – 5.29 ERA – 1.29 WHIP

I’ll be the first to admit that this one feels like a trap, as Berríos constantly feels like he’s setting us up for a fantasy fall. But it’s also hard to ignore the ERA evaluators that are nearly two runs lower than reality (3.22 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, 3.69 SIERA), and a 1.29 WHIP that’s been hammered by a .351 BABIP that’s the sixth-highest among qualified starting pitchers and is fifty-points higher than his three-year average entering 2023.

The increase in BABIP isn’t that strange, though, given a 50% GB% is up nine points in 2022, with almost all of his pitch mix getting in on the worm-burn increase:

But Berríos isn’t just getting more groundballs, the whiffs are coming in bigger bunches too, with every pitch in the mix getting in on some of that hot, air action:

While all his mix has seen more whiffery, it’s Berríos’s changeup that has put up the biggest increases, with a 23% SwStr% that’s up 10 points and a 48% Whiff% that has doubled over last year. It’s being thrown about two ticks slower than it has been in the past and is consequentially averaging about two fewer inches in drop. And with the change in shape, the ol’ string pull has been devastating in the zone, posting a 52% zWhiff% that is frankly outrageous, rising from just 11% in 2022:

There might be some good things going on underneath the hood but you’re still riding the lightning when rolling with Berríos, who has allowed a total of 3 ER in three of his starts, and 17 ER in the other three. And things might get tougher before they get better, with his next two starts lining up against the throwback Pirates and an Atlanta team that just refuses to stop pummeling opposing pitchers, most recently scoring 26 runs during a three-game sweep of Miami.

Regress-Out: Vince Velasquez, PIT (Razzball SP 19)

35.1 IP – 4 W – 34 K – 3.06 ERA – 1.16 WHIP

Everyone who has gotten some value out of Vince Velasquez should be commended. And by commended, I mean they should be running away from their roto standings with ski masks on their face and childish laughter in their hearts.

Because it’s only a matter of time before Vince activates his inner gas can:

Velasquez’s 3.06 ERA is already backed by a 4.10 FIP that says the mark was somewhat undeserved but a 4.58 xFIP and 4.51 SIERA say even tougher times are ahead. As does a .250 BABIP that is ~40 points lower than his previous three-year average.

He’s virtually dropped his curveball in 2023, basically becoming a two-pitch pitcher (SL: 44%, 4S: 42%), while mixing in a changeup (12%) that can get groundballs (64% GB%) but little in the way of whiffs (12% SwStr%, 26% Whiff%). Perhaps Velasquez can avoid having damage done against him by surviving mostly with a slider that gets below-average whiffs (15% SwStr%) just like it always has and a four-seamer whose .405 wOBAcon has a .492 xwOBAcon behind it.

Maybe, just maybe, Velasquez will finally morph into the Human Torch hero that’s always lived in his heart instead of the Human-Shaped Gas Can he always eventually reveals himself to be after a good run in a small sample. But who knows?… This might be the year! But I have my doubts.

With that being said, assuming the elbow soreness that chased him after just three innings in his last start isn’t serious, Velasquez does set up for some pretty choice matchups in his next few starts, scheduled next to face Colorado at home and Detroit on the road. But don’t keep getting cute if you don’t want your ratios to eventually get burnt up.