Are These Guys Good?

Three young outfielders who had vastly different seasons in 2015: one was excellent, but only for 350 PA, another has had an MLB-caliber glove forever but finally showed something with the bat, and the other failed to meet high expectations set by his 2014 leading to a demotion. Even with the positive aspects from two of the three guys, we’re still left wondering one question about all three: are these guys good? We’ll look at a couple key elements of their game and then give a recommendation.

Randal Grichuk

The Good: The power was off-the-charts. He popped 17 HR in the aforementioned 350 PA with a .548 SLG and .272 ISO. The 19% HR/FB rate could come down, but he’s a flyball (42%), pull (51%) hitter. I think we can buy the power. He had a reverse platoon split going 88 points in favor of his work vs. righties. If real, it would obviously be great, but the sample size – even adding his 116 PA from 2014 – remains scant. It also runs counter to his minor league which showed a sharp platoon split toward lefties (218-point split).

The Bad: He had a strikeout rate that would even make Joc Pederson blush (31%) and nowhere near young Joc’s walk rate (6% to JP’s 16%). The silver lining is that it differs greatly from who he was in the minors. He had just a 20% strikeout rate in 2327 PA with the Angels and Cardinals organizations. If we believe his platoon split will drift back toward his minor league work, it’s a fair assumption for the strikeout rate, too.

The Verdict: He’s good, but there is work to be done. Strikeouts are usually the downside of power (as the SwStr rate leaderboards will show) and we should plan for a scenario where the strikeouts remain high and the batting average comes down to a level more commensurate with that much swing-and-miss. There have been 52 seasons of at least 350 PA and a 30%+ K rate since 2011. Those guys hit a combined .228 in 22,552 PA.

Grichuk’s .276 was tied for third-highest and only seven of the seasons saw a .270 or better average. This is the kind of profile that you want in case it does click and drops the strikeouts while maintaining the power, but you can’t be overinvested. In other words, don’t try to get shares in every league if you’re a multi-league player. And when you are at the bidding table, don’t pay such a price he has to perform for you. The $8-10 range is where I’d set my threshold in a mixed league.

Jackie Bradley Jr.

The Good: This has indirect impact in most leagues, but his defense is tremendous. For the overwhelming majority of leagues, the defense itself doesn’t deliver fantasy value, but the fact that he’s so good with the glove improves his chances at playing time. To wit, his defense is so good that the Red Sox gave him 423 PA despite a 46 wRC+. Of course he’s on a team flush with outfield depth so the defense alone hasn’t guaranteed him playing time thus far.

He made the most of his opportunity in 2015, showing fantastic power in 255 PA. He had 10 HR, .498 SLG, and .249 ISO. The run kept him in the lineup for the final two months of the season and at the very least enhanced his trade value should the Red Sox want to move him in the offseason as they remain stocked at the position with Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, Brock Holt, recently signed Chris Young, and Hanl… haha, I mean, well… they do still have Hanley Ramirez, but he’s not an outfielder.

The Bad: His full season sample of 255 PA is already tiny, but the damage was confined to just over 40% of that. He hit .400/.457/.853 with 7 HR, 32 RBI, and 30 R in 105 PA spanning 29 games. A lot of guys have a hot streak that takes their season from bad to solid, good to great, or great to elite, but Bradley was so impossibly bad in the other 150 PA (and 530 PA before that in 2013-14) that it’s fair to look askance at the hot streak. He had a .135/.247/.230 line with 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 13 R before and after the streak.

Like Grichuk, a big part of his problem is the strikeout. He wasn’t quite as bad with a 27% K rate and 13% SwStr rate and he did offset some of the damage with a strong 11% BB rate. For his career, he’s at 28% and 9%, respectively. Another similarity he shares with Grichuk is the reverse platoon split, but it’s obviously much worse for a lefty hitter. He had a 127-point split favoring his work vs. lefties after dropping a .918 OPS on them (thanks in large part to a .408 BABIP). For his career, it’s only an 81-point split, but that’s just because he sucks vs. both (.693/.612).

The Verdict: I’ve long been a Bradley fan so I enjoyed his hot streak, but I’m not sure he’s all that good… at least not when it comes to fantasy baseball. His looking like a capable big leaguer wasn’t beyond the pale. After all, he was a first rounder (40th overall) and had a solid minor league career: .294/.391/.460 in 1376 PA with 13 HR and 15 SB per 600 PA (although his base stealing was iffy in his best year at 24-for-33 and he’s been a putrid 11-for-23 in 761 PA at Triple-A since then).

This is a $1 asset in mixed leagues, maaaayyybe bump it to $2 if you’re loaded with cash late in the auction and he’s your guy among the remaining OF. As a Bradley fan, I’ll have at least one share just in case, but his 2015 hasn’t raised the expectation all that high. Plus, Young will be his platoon as Betts and Castillo are both righties.

Marcell Ozuna

The Good: Ummm, well… he had a .937 OPS… at Triple-A. Yeah so the thing is, there wasn’t much good from Ozuna in 2015. So if we’re judging solely on 2015, we can just cut to the chase and say no, he’s not good, but we’re looking at his body of work. His career line doesn’t offer a definitive answer. He has a 101 wRC+ in 1397 PA. In 2013 and 2015, he amassed 785 PA of 90 wRC+ and sandwiched in between was the 2014 with 612 PA of a 115 wRC+ including 23 HR and 85 RBI.

The raw power was always there so tapping into it was at least somewhat expected, especially after three 20+ HR seasons from 2010-12 in the minors. Ozuna doesn’t have quite the defense of Bradley, but he’s definitely a plus centerfielder with a hose.

The Bad: His 2015. He completely reverted back to the guy we saw for 291 PA in 2013. His triple slashes were almost equal: .265/.303/.389 in 2013 and a .259/.308/.383 in 2014 with a .124 ISO in both seasons. It got so bad that he was demoted to Triple-A and appears to still be in the doghouse given the trade rumors swirling around him this winter. It’s tough stupid to speculate too much on a player’s attitude and how much it would even affect his performance if it’s a legitimate issue, but it doesn’t seem like this the best situation for Ozuna anymore.

The Verdict: Good player in a bad situation. Given what we know of how Miami operates, it’s tough to blame their players for being frustrated, but carrying it out onto the field only hurts the player. His power is real and plays anywhere, even the cavernous Marlins Park.

I think if you budget as high as $10 in mixed leagues, you’re safe and and you’ll likely come away with some spare change as he’ll go lower in many leagues. The potential is there, but he wasn’t a widely heralded prospect and he’s kind of hidden in Miami so that along with the down season makes him a low-cost gamble worth taking.