Anthony Rizzo Gets A Boost Of Speed

Anthony Rizzo ended up as the #3 overall first baseman according to Zack Sanders end-of-season rankings. Looking over Rizzo’s stat line about everything lined up with expectations. The 31 home runs and .278 average are well within expectations. A few additions around him in the lineup boosted up his counting stats. The only change in his stat was a huge jump in stolen bases to 17. In his previous four seasons, he only had 16 stolen bases total. I am going to examine Rizzo today especially the chances of his stolen base total staying up.

Not Stolen Base Information

The 26-year-old’s stats were in line with expectations, if not a bit better. One item which improved was his 19% K% in 2014 (and it is near his career average) dropped to 15% in 2015. Rizzo went with the approach of swinging more (44.5% to 46.8%) and making more contact (79.7% to 83.1%). If a few more of these batted balls fall in play, he could push a .300 AVG.

I could even expect his Run and RBI total to increase as the rest of the Cubs grow and mature. The team’s wRC+ has gone from 81 in 2012 to 96 this season. The 2012 to 2014 teams averaged 609 runs a season with the 2015 squad scoring 689 runs. With Rizzo hitting in the middle of the lineup, he could easily top 100 Runs and 120 RBI.

If there was any downside to note, it was a drop in HR/FB from 19% in 2014 to 15% in 2015. I am not worried about this drop for several reasons. His FB% was up, so he is still trying to keep the ball in the air. His Hard Hit% (33%) was above his career average and better than 2014 mark (32%). His HR&FB distance was 288 in both 2014 and 2015. Nothing points to his power being in decline.

Stolen Base Information

His stolen base jump seemed to come out of nowhere. Here are his totals from 2012-2015:

Season: PA, SB

2012: 3, 368
2013: 6, 690
2014: 5, 616
2015: 17, 701

His stolen base total tripled from 2014. What makes the jump even more remarkable is that he plays 1B which is a notoriously slow position. I decided to go and look at the 1B from 1980 to current who saw a jump from 8 or less stolen bases to a total at or above 16 (minimum 200 PA)

In total 20 first baseman made the cut with the average age being close (25 vs 27) and the stolen base numbers almost being dead on. In all, we should expect fairly heavy regression with the projection probably around 10 which is the exact value projected for him with 600 PA. Of the players who had seen such a jump, only four saw their total stay the same or get better the next season. Regression seemed to be happening as his 2015 monthly totals went from 6 to 3 to 2 to 3 to 1 to 2.

With all the information, I think Rizzo’s 2016 season looks bright. I projected a .290 AVG, 95 Runs, 115 RBI, 30 HR, and 10 SB season from him. He got a huge unexpectant boost in 2015 value from his 17 stolen bases. Owners should not expect those stolen base numbers again. Even with the drop, he should still be a borderline 2016 first rounder.