Andrew Cashner Is My Spirit Animal

It is no secret around these digital pages just how big of an Andrew Cashner fan I am. That being said, yet again his season was cut short due to injury. This year it was elbow soreness that caused him to miss three weeks in late May and early June. Just two starts after being activated, Cashner once again found himself on the disabled list, this time with inflammation in his shoulder. Given his extensive history of shoulder issues, the San Diego Padres played it safe and kept him on the shelf for over two months.

When healthy — and those words are especially critical when thinking about drafting Cashner — he still performs at a very high level. Even after making just 19 starts and throwing 123.1 innings, Cashner ranked 69th in Zach Sanders’ end of season rankings, placing above hurlers like Shelby Miller, Homer Bailey and Yovani Gallardo. Despite his relatively strong performance, Cashner’s swinging strike rate has dropped — albeit slightly — again this season. Note: Cashner spent 27 of 46.1 innings as a reliever in 2012, making only five starts for the remaining 19 innings.

	K%	BB%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
2012	26.5%	9.7%	11.6%	55.6%
2013	18.1%	6.7%	8.3%	60.1%
2014	18.4%	5.7%	8%	63.4%

Cashner’s strikeouts, at least as a starter, seem to have found a home in the 6.5 K/9 neighborhood. While not disappointingly low, given his raw stuff, especially his heater — Cashner’s 94.9 mph fastball is the fifth highest average velocity since 2012, minimum 300 IP — one wonders if Cashner would be better suited to mix up his pitching style. With such a great fastball it is no wonder to see him use it the majority of the time, however Cashner relied on it almost 2 out of every 3 pitches since 2012, 66.2% of the time. Only 17 pitchers leaned on their fastballs more frequently than Cashner. As Eno Sarris noted in his Fox Sports piece, Cashner is relying less on his blazing four-seam fastball and instead is utilizing his mid 90’s two-seamer.
The table jibs with Cashner’s own words: he’s throwing different pitches at a lesser velocity, but his control is up. His walk rate has dropped three years in a row while his first strike rate has trended upwards. Getting ahead of batters shouldn’t be overlooked, especially the massive gap between 1-0 and 0-1 batters posted this year.

	AVG	OBP	SLG
After 1-0	.267	.373	.420
After 0-1	.221	.261	.331

With a wide variety of pitches, including two different types of sliders as both Eno mentioned and Chris Cwik wrote up earlier this year, Cashner has the potential to be a breakout pitcher. Again. Factor in his favorable home park and improved control and we see the reason I’ll keep chasing him and hoping he repeats his 2013 season. Don’t break your arm reaching for Cashner, but be conscious of his upside, even accounting for his injury history.