All Star Break Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers

by
July 22, 2013

We’re done! We’re finally done!

With the pitchers we come to the end of another exhausting week of ranking pitchers.

With 60% of the year done, the guys that will start arguments are almost always ones with interesting innings projections. We know a lot of about a pitcher’s talent and results this year, but guys like Shelby Miller (who could get capped around 180 innings, or might not) and Brandon Beachy (who could come back and pitch, but who knows) have unknowns. Even guys like Hisashi Iwakuma (who didn’t have great innings totals in Japan) and Andrew Cashner (who hurts himself often) are hard to project when it comes to playing time.

As always, go with quantity. Quality is important, but in a league where 40% of the starters hit the DL in a given season, you’re going to need all the arms you can get.

With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto. Jeff Zimmerman’s rankings are a combination of ZiPs and Steamer rest-of-season projections with playing time determined by our depth charts. You can find the projections on every player page and the depth charts here

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RG Pitcher ES JZ MP ZS
1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1
2 Felix Hernandez 2 2 2 2
3 Justin Verlander 3 5 3 6
4 Yu Darvish 5 3 4 8
5 Cliff Lee 8 4 6 4
6 Max Scherzer 6 6 5 11
7 Adam Wainwright 10 10 8 3
8 Matt Harvey 4 16 13 5
9 Stephen Strasburg 11 14 7 7
10 Chris Sale 7 8 16 9
11 Madison Bumgarner 9 9 12 10
12 David Price 12 15 10 12
13 Cole Hamels 16 7 11 17
14 CC Sabathia 17 13 9 16
15 Mat Latos 14 12 18 15
16 James Shields 15 11 14 20
17 Gio Gonzalez 13 19 26 13
18 Zack Greinke 18 18 15 22
19 Matt Cain 25 17 19 26
20 Jered Weaver 28 25 17 21
21 Homer Bailey 24 27 24 19
22 Mike Minor 22 26 34 14
23 Matt Moore 23 28 22 24
24 Jeff Samardzija 20 20 28 31
25 Anibal Sanchez 21 24 21 34
26 Jordan Zimmermann 26 34 32 18
27 A.J. Burnett 30 29 30 28
28 Jake Peavy 32 30 29 32
29 Derek Holland 29 32 36 27
30 Hiroki Kuroda 27 45 38 25
31 Doug Fister 38 41 37 23
32 Matt Garza 34 43 33 29
33 Shelby Miller 19 68 20 35
34 Francisco Liriano 31 49 31 37
35 Tim Lincecum 37 21 25 69
36 Lance Lynn 41 39 43 33
37 R.A. Dickey 33 38 23 64
38 Hisashi Iwakuma 42 47 40 30
39 Yovani Gallardo 39 22 35 66
40 Ian Kennedy 35 23 61 45
41 Jon Lester 45 37 49 38
42 Hyun-Jin Ryu 44 54 42 39
43 Justin Masterson 67 36 41 41
44 Patrick Corbin 36 52 44 55
45 Kris Medlen 40 55 45 59
46 Tommy Milone 54 40 60 47
47 John Lackey 52 88 27 36
48 Ervin Santana 43 48 52 61
49 Jeremy Hellickson 47 61 50 58
50 Julio Teheran 49 71 54 44
51 Josh Johnson 61 53 39 65
52 C.J. Wilson 58 35 51 75
53 Ryan Dempster 69 58 59 40
54 Andrew Cashner 50 69 56 52
55 Ricky Nolasco 64 42 81 53
56 Jose Fernandez 56 92 47 48
57 Johnny Cueto 46 44 46 110
58 Edwin Jackson 68 31 55 94
59 Jarrod Parker 59 66 87 42
60 Dan Haren 66 33 48 111
61 A.J. Griffin 48 73 92 46
62 Alex Cobb 51 84 78 51
63 Rick Porcello 70 74 64 56
64 Clay Buchholz 57 86 79 43
65 Erasmo Ramirez 55 94 58 63
66 Corey Kluber 53 83 53 83
67 Phil Hughes 78 46 67 84
68 Tim Hudson 80 89 63 57
69 Jeff Locke 75 95 70 50
70 Wade Miley 77 64 74 78
71 Ivan Nova 62 76 57 99
72 Felix Doubront 72 78 68 77
73 Paul Maholm 65 80 75 80
74 Bud Norris 63 57 121 71
75 Wandy Rodriguez 60 65 114 76
76 Chris Archer 71 97 77 72
77 Dan Straily 74 85 69 92
78 Chris Capuano 73 70 62 115
79 Mike Leake 91 108 73 54
80 Marco Estrada 85 59 80 108
81 Kyle Lohse 76 60 96 102
82 Bronson Arroyo 82 81 103 70
83 Zack Wheeler 100 120 71 49
84 Travis Wood 95 72 95 81
85 Wei-Yin Chen 93 100 86 68
86 Trevor Cahill 79 63 115 93
87 Andy Pettitte 89 110 91 67
88 Jose Quintana 86 96 89 87
89 Bartolo Colon 83 112 82 82
90 Scott Feldman 104 101 83 73
91 Alexi Ogando 99 98 76 89
92 Ubaldo Jimenez 84 62 120 96
93 Chris Tillman 92 90 84 98
94 Brandon Morrow 107 50 117 91
95 Dillon Gee 96 67 99 106
96 Kyle Kendrick 90 107 100 74
97 Joe Blanton 98 56 112 117
98 Brandon Beachy 88 119 122 60
99 Tony Cingrani 81 111 109 90
100 Scott Kazmir 97 115 66 116
101 Jason Hammel 94 87 85 130
102 Jon Niese 116 51 128 105
103 Chris Carpenter 101 121 93 88
104 Hector Santiago 109 103 72 122
105 Jhoulys Chacin 106 116 123 62
106 Gerrit Cole 103 128 94 85
107 Zach McAllister 105 106 98 104
108 Eric Stults 122 113 101 79
109 John Danks 115 104 97 100
110 Carlos Villanueva 113 91 90 127
111 Jason Vargas 128 79 130 86
112 Mark Buehrle 114 82 130 97
113 Brett Anderson 87 114 111 114
114 Roberto Hernandez 120 118 65 125
115 Brandon McCarthy 112 99 110 112
116 Jacob Turner 111 124 104 95
117 Jorge De La Rosa 119 117 102 103
118 Nathan Eovaldi 102 122 108 119
119 Tommy Hanson 129 75 125 126
120 Wade Davis 124 77 129 129
121 Kyle Gibson 123 126 106 107
122 Jordan Lyles 117 102 113 130
123 Colby Lewis 110 123 118 113
124 Matt Harrison 118 93 130 123
125 Tyler Skaggs 127 129 88 121
126 Aaron Harang 130 105 116 118
127 Joe Kelly 121 125 105 120
128 David Phelps 108 109 130 128
129 Martin Perez 126 130 119 109
130 Samuel Deduno 130 130 127 101
131 Tyler Chatwood 130 130 107 130
132 Ross Detwiler 125 127 130 124
133 Esmil Rogers 130 130 124 130
134 Juan Nicasio 130 130 126 130

Ranked once were Daniel Hudson, Stephen Fife, Clayton Richard, Jeremy Guthrie, Miguel Gonzalez, J.A. Happ, Kevin Correia, Edinson Volquez, James McDonald, Barry Zito, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Shaun Marcum, Ryan Vogelsong, Mike Fiers, Scott Baker, Luke Hochevar.





 

With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

69 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
jon
13 years ago

I got an argument starter for ya: Bartolo Colon! His rank here would seem to be based on the 40% of the season left during which you all assume he’ll get hurt/suspended and completely ignoring the 60% of the season for which he’s been a Top-10 pitcher. There’s got to be a little hedge in there somewhere, right?

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  jon

These rankings are strictly for the rest of the season, so his performance to date is irrelevant. His strikeouts are non-existent and his SIERA is over 4.00. He also hasn’t thrown more than 165 innings since 2005.

2
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

I’m factoring in the (now huge) probability of suspension. I just traded him immediately upon hearing the Braun news, for Blanton and Ichiro in a deep dynasty.

1
Paul
13 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Who the heck traded for him?

2
Luis Matos
13 years ago

You can’t possibly be serious with not ranking Miguel Gonzalez.

His 107 IP w/ a 3.34 ERA and 18% Ks didn’t rank him ahead of Samuel Deduno or Chris Carpenter?

I mean, I know his peripherals (4.30 SIERA) say he isn’t a 3.34 ERA pitcher, but he’s playing behind a good defense, so beating his peripherals isn’t that surprising.

What am I missing because this seems like a glaring oversight?

Did y

0
tommy
13 years ago
Reply to  Luis Matos

OMG, they came for and got Luis. Be car

11
Mr. Jones
13 years ago
Reply to  Luis Matos

He plays behind his defense? I haven’t noticed that. Where is the mound at Oriole Park?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Luis Matos

I just haven’t liked what I’ve seen, watching, him, and various peripherals are not good.

1
Luis Matos
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Can you elaborate on what you’ve seen?

I’m not trying to overrate the guy. He’s a mediocre fantasy option. But I can’t imagine anyone taking Chris Carpenter, Matt Harrison or Colby Lewis over him ROS.

1
Chief Keef
13 years ago

Kuroda is too low on basically everyone’s list.

3
PR
13 years ago

Edwin Jackson’s mother prefers Jose Fernandez

2
James
13 years ago
Reply to  PR

Innings limit probably hurt him in JZ’s rankings. That’s a fair point if these are ROS rankings.

0
Giovani
13 years ago
Reply to  James

What do you mean “if”? It clearly states, “These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto.”

0
Milby
13 years ago

It’s always counter intuitive to me how the math works out to have a ranking like Brandon McCarthy, who has individual ranks of 111, 108, 106 & 111, but an overall rank of 114. He’d probably craft a hilarious tweet about how everything, even math, is working against him.

0
that
13 years ago

what? no verlander?

1
Milby
13 years ago
Reply to  that

What?!! No Clayton Kershaw?

Verlander is #3.

2
Ben Verlander
13 years ago
Reply to  that

I just signed with Detroit’s minor league team last month. I’m not that good yet…

My bro’ however is at number 3.

11
that
13 years ago

corbin should be higher
iwakuma should be lower

-1
Kaline's Ghost
13 years ago
Reply to  that

totally. A corbin for kennedy trade would be tagged as collusion and get voided in some leagues

-1
Colonic
13 years ago

Colon at 91?? Milone ahead of Parker and Straily?? I can say one unequivocal thing– nobody is watching the real Oakland A’s team play… Fantasy, indeed!!!!

-2
George
13 years ago
Reply to  Colonic

100% agreed. Makes me question whether these clowns even watch baseball.

-1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  George

I’m in the Oakland press box almost once a week. Colon absolutely is ‘playing above his head,’ Straily has a bad fastball and might have homer problems, and I like Parker.

1
that
13 years ago

this table being sortable would be nice

2
Giovani
13 years ago
Reply to  that

Pausing for a moment to collect your thoughts and making one post instead of making three harebrained in succession (including asking where the guy ranked #3 is) would be nice.

3
that
13 years ago
Reply to  Giovani

who is ranked no.3?

-1
that
13 years ago
Reply to  Giovani

also. rude.

-1
MustBunique
13 years ago

The Society would like to protest a #65 ranking.

16
Zach SandersMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  MustBunique

He’s #1 in my heart.

0
Shauntell
13 years ago

Thanks guys, was really looking forward to these rankings, starting pitchers are the toughest to rank…

2
Dave
13 years ago

Switch Cashner and Dempster, IMHO (I’m guessing this was a typo?). Other than that, I think everything is in the correct order here.

0
Chief Keef
13 years ago
Reply to  Dave

Exactly. The other 125 pitchers were ranked in the exact perfect order but the 53rd and 54th guys should switch spots. This is a BIG DEAL.

6
jfree
13 years ago

No Roy Oswalt? He’s gotten some bad luck – a .400+ BABIP, 30% LD, 11% IFH, – but considering he hasn’t really pitched much except his four-seam FB, I think he’s a good bet to regress towards his peripherals (SIERA/FIP/xFIP all under 3 vs his current ERA of 7.65) as he pitches his secondary pitches a bit more.

-1
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  jfree

It’s hard to rank someone who is currently injured with no clear timetable of a return.

1
jfree
13 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Well it may be difficult but that’s why we pay you the big bucks

0
Kevin
13 years ago

No Eric Stults?

0
Steve
13 years ago

Jorge de la Rosa?

0
Cuck city
13 years ago
Reply to  Steve

and Chatwood??

0
Steve
13 years ago
Reply to  Cuck city

Nicasio too… COL-bias?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Cuck city

We don’t hate Colorado, but… yeah that’s a tough park. I’ll make sure we didn’t miss on JdlR and company.

0
Will H.
13 years ago

Greinke is still riding 2009 in rankings. Don’t get me wrong, he’s good, but has been over-ranked ever since then.

0
Wobatus
13 years ago
Reply to  Will H.

From 2010 to 2013 (so excluding 2009, his best year), Greinke is 12th in starter WAR, 10th in FIP, 10th in xFIP and 12th in SIERA. He’s 48th in ERA, which is likely why people think he hasn’t been that good, but his peripherals suggest he’s been better than that. His k% is 21st and k/bb is 20th, so a high teens ranking sounds about right.

5
Ruki Motomiya
13 years ago
Reply to  Wobatus

The thing is…ERA is the stat used in fantasy, not FIP, xFIP or SIERA.

In addition, being so much worse in ERA over a long period suggests he may be someone who underperforms his peripherals.

-1
bleh
13 years ago
Reply to  Wobatus

But those other stats are better predictors of future ERA than actual ERA.

2
TJ
13 years ago

Hostess Snake Cakes’ return can’t possibly make up for how Bartolo Colon is feeling right now.

2
JasonJ
13 years ago

No Dennis Oil Can Boyd?! Really? REALLY? OMG

0
Skip Alessi
13 years ago

Can someone explain the Tommy Milone love fest? #46?

0
Cuck city
13 years ago
Reply to  Skip Alessi

walks less than Stephen Hawking

2
KJ
13 years ago

I’m totally with Zack on Waino.

1
Mister
13 years ago

Are you guys factoring in Biogenesis suspension risk for Bartolo Colon? That’s the only reason I can come up with for why he would be ranked below Pettitte. Yes, they’re right next to each other, and I do think their values are similar, but Colon is clearly better at this point. There are lots of good reasons to be wary of Colon, but I can’t think of any besides the suspension risk that wouldn’t also apply to Pettitte. In the end, they’re both old, mediocre, low K, low BB pitchers, but one is in a great pitcher’s park with a good offense behind him and the other is in a hitter’s park with a terrible offense behind him.

0
Jacks
13 years ago

Jarrod Parker and Ian Kennedy should switch spots.

0
Club Sauce
13 years ago

Am I missing something about Gerrit Cole?

2
Ryan BrockMember since 2025
13 years ago
Reply to  Club Sauce

Same question…

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Ryan Brock

Gathering rankings. Don’t know how he didn’t make the list.

1
Eric Dykstra
13 years ago

I think you’d be crazy to take Edwin Jackson over Tony Cingrani or Ryan Dempster over JoFer.

0
TheTheory
13 years ago

“hey, I wonder where the guys from my team are ranked?”
::scroll::
::scroll scroll::
::scroll scroll scroll::

3
NadavT
13 years ago
Reply to  TheTheory

Funny, mine are 5th, 19th, 21st, 24th, 34th, and 45th, and my pitching is still horrible.

0
Troy
13 years ago

I hope these rankings are correct. I am getting killed by my staff and now am sitting on what appears to be a solid staff. Waino, Hammels, Sebathia, The mullet, Hudson, Dicky, Lester, and Nova. In a 15 teamer with 3 SP and 3 P slots this should be a staff that puts up qualify inning…..should be.

0
Paul
13 years ago
Reply to  Troy

It’s all relative, and ultimately, many of the starters listed/ranked will buck and have bucked the metrics all year. Gamble either way you look at it. Go NL when in doubt.

0
Shelby Miller
13 years ago

I’m getting screwed.

1
Paul
13 years ago

Has there been a study done on the percentage of starters who have out performed their sabermetrics for an entire year? Corbin seems to be saying F-you to these rankings.

0
SF Draft Talk
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul

It happens all the time. However, the point is you shouldn’t expect it.

2
Paul
13 years ago

Tommy Milone doesn’t deserve this kind of love. Numbers lie and apparently he’s the main beneficiary. Astros beating him up.

1
Giovani
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul

Angry, angry young man.

0
TheGrandslamwichMember since 2026
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul

If you actually watched the A’s – Astros game last night, the Astros in no way beat up Milone. The A’s defense beat up Milone. He still only gave up 2 earned runs, but one of those was definitely not earned as Donaldson let a routine ball go through his legs and had it ruled a double instead of a very obvious error.

0
Cliff
13 years ago

Hector Santiago…seems to be one of the most undervalued/overlooked pitchers in baseball honestly.

Over the past 2 seasons, he’s had a combined 16 starts, going 5-3 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .204 BAA, and 102 Ks in only 88.1 IP(10.4 K/9).

I recognize that it’s a small sample, but it’s something I discovered recently and found interesting, as I thought he was good, but not quite that good. If I have to pick between him, and say, Phil Hughes, ill take Hector all day long. Just a thought. As usual, very good list. Although, I do think Fernandez is way too low. Even with an innings limit, he’s a top 40-50 SP at worst for me.

1
beavis
13 years ago

Mike Leake at 81…just before Bronson Arroyo at 82. I beg to differ, but really just felt like adding my 2 cents and had nothing better to say.

0
Pdiddy31
13 years ago

Someone please take Verlander off my hands for anything even remotely close in trade value for a top 10 ROS ranking. Plummeting velocity and horrendous WHIP have to be signs of injury and or falling off some sort of age cliff.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago

Updated.

0
cs3
13 years ago

How is Verlander still ranked so high?
I get that he has been incredible for several years.
But has anyone doing the rankings actually watched him pitch this season?

If you had one of Wainwright, Darvish, Sale, Scherzer, Lee, Harvey and someone offered you Verly straight up for any of them, you’re telling me you would accept?
That would be pretty bad if you are trying to win this year.

0