Albert Pujols – LVP (Historically)

Last season Albert Pujols was drafted in the mid- to late-first round. Some people expected a bounce-back after a disappointing 2012 season. All they got from him was a dead cat bounce. He ended up as the 352nd-ranked fantasy player according to our end-of-season rankings. Once again, he may look like a rebound/buy low candidate, but his rebound chances are slim.

Pujols final 2013 fantasy stats were pretty sad, for him at least. Here are his stats and some comparable players from this past season.

Name	PA	HR	Runs	RBI	SB	AVG
Albert Pujols	443	17	49	64	1	0.258
Matt Joyce	481	18	61	47	7	0.251
Justin Ruggiano	472	18	49	50	15	0.260
Kelly Johnson	407	16	41	52	7	0.276

Before the season started, it would have been unexpected to see Pujols get lumped in with this group of fringe-ish players. Additionally, speaking as an owner of him in half my leagues, I don’t remember him getting over 400 PA. It seemed he spent most of the season on the bench or DL.

His decline has been at a historic level for someone of his ability. The problem with finding recent comparables to Pujols is his previous Hall of Fame production level. To get some comparables, I looked at players from 1950 to present and used the Batting component of WAR. While WAR doesn’t translate perfectly over to fantasy stats, it will give a measure of the player’s hitting ability and playing time. I looked at players from age 29 to 31 who were withing 20 Batting Runs of Pujols. Here is the list along with their average fantasy stats for the 3 seasons.

Name	PA	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Batting Runs
Albert Pujols	684	115	42	117	13	0.313	161
Jeff Bagwell	702	125	40	124	27	0.298	178
Stan Musial	666	111	27	103	5	0.345	176
Joe Morgan	659	110	22	81	64	0.303	171
Barry Bonds	595	107	37	105	33	0.304	171
Alex Rodriguez	699	127	46	136	20	0.309	169
Mickey Mantle	454	89	33	84	8	0.318	163
Frank Robinson	639	105	37	110	8	0.307	158
Hank Aaron	662	111	33	105	26	0.321	156
Brian Giles	669	107	37	107	11	0.308	155
Todd Helton	671	114	28	97	2	0.343	152
Willie Mays	678	122	39	122	20	0.310	149
David Ortiz	689	117	45	134	2	0.306	148
Jim Thome	647	103	46	116	1	0.287	148
Wade Boggs	709	116	11	67	2	0.353	147
Willie McCovey	590	85	37	107	2	0.297	146
Sammy Sosa	713	118	60	146	11	0.305	144
Manny Ramirez	606	98	37	112	1	0.325	143
Rickey Henderson	638	117	15	56	78	0.301	142
Mike Schmidt	587	97	41	109	11	0.281	142
Average	646	109	35	106	17	0.312	52

That is a pretty good list of players. Here is how they did in their age 32 and 33 seasons.

Name	PA	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Batting Runs
Albert Pujols	557	67	24	85	5	0.275	22
Jeff Bagwell	718	139	43	131	10	0.299	93
Stan Musial	702	124	33	120	2	0.334	116
Joe Morgan	622	113	25	95	55	0.303	106
Barry Bonds	694	122	39	112	33	0.297	123
Alex Rodriguez	565	91	33	102	16	0.295	71
Mickey Mantle	501	68	27	79	5	0.282	70
Frank Robinson	576	90	24	76	10	0.291	80
Hank Aaron	679	115	42	118	19	0.293	85
Brian Giles	660	95	22	91	7	0.291	66
Todd Helton	666	90	16	86	2	0.311	35
Willie Mays	668	118	43	107	14	0.305	112
David Ortiz	559	76	26	94	1	0.250	7
Jim Thome	658	104	45	118	0	0.270	60
Wade Boggs	677	91	7	57	1	0.316	40
Willie McCovey	520	72	29	98	0	0.284	72
Sammy Sosa	689	134	57	134	1	0.308	129
Manny Ramirez	657	110	44	137	2	0.300	80
Rickey Henderson	539	91	17	52	53	0.275	67
Mike Schmidt	650	106	38	98	11	0.267	81
Average	628	102	32	100	13	0.293	39

Overall, the group of players were still fairly productive over those two season. They averaged 100+ Runs and RBIs, 30+ HRs and a near .300 AVG. Pujols performed worse than all the players except possibly two contemporaries, David Ortiz and Todd Helton. While Helton got a full season of plate appearances over those two seasons, Ortiz average only 2.5 more plate appearances a season.

Finally, here is a peek into the age 34 season. Injuries and/or playing time really began to effect this group of players.

Name	PA	Runs	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Batting Runs
Jeff Bagwell	691	94	31	98	7	0.291	35
Stan Musial	656	97	33	108	5	0.319	42
Joe Morgan	533	68	13	75	19	0.236	7
Barry Bonds	434	91	34	83	15	0.262	30
Alex Rodriguez	595	74	30	125	4	0.270	16
Mickey Mantle	393	40	23	56	1	0.288	28
Frank Robinson	553	88	25	78	2	0.306	34
Hank Aaron	676	84	29	86	28	0.287	38
Brian Giles	674	92	15	83	13	0.301	42
Todd Helton	361	39	7	29	0	0.264	-3
Willie Mays	638	118	52	112	9	0.317	63
David Ortiz	606	86	32	102	0	0.270	18
Jim Thome	242	26	7	30	0	0.207	-7
Wade Boggs	598	62	7	50	1	0.259	-7
Willie McCovey	304	30	14	35	0	0.213	1
Sammy Sosa	589	99	40	103	0	0.279	22
Manny Ramirez	558	79	35	102	0	0.321	41
Rickey Henderson	610	114	21	59	53	0.289	46
Mike Schmidt	632	93	36	106	5	0.277	37
Average	544	78	25	80	9	0.277	25

Their RBI, Runs, HR and PA were all down about 20%. Five of the nineteen players (Boggs, Morgan, Helton, Thome and McCovey) all had mediocre to horrible stats. Also, only five saw an increase in Batting Runs (Giles, Mays, Ortiz, Ramirez and Henderson), while the rest declined. If history is any indication, Pujols has about a one-in-four chance of seeing an improvement.

I have no idea how the community will value Albert Pujols in 2014. He could still get quite a bit of name recondition and go in the first three round. I think this way too high. I just can’t see taking him in the top 100 picks.

In a shallow mixed league (12 teams or less), I would just stay away until most of my starting team is set and only then take a change on him. I would not like to start the season relying on him for production. In deep or AL-only leagues, the pool of 1B is shallower. I would look at picking him up if I have a backup option in place. In auction formats, the dynamics may be a little different and he may go cheaper as people aren’t really willing to take a chance on him. It will be interesting to see how he gets valued in 2014.