Alan Harrison’s 10 Bold-ish Predictions, The 2015 Edition

Another year, another set of bold predictions to nail down. If you’d like to check out some of my past predictions, here are 2013’s along with the review and here are 2014’s predictions and the subsequent review.

As usual, firing squad please report directly to the comments section.

Here goes nothing:

1. Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Hahn will be top 75 starters

Maybe this one isn’t too bold, but Pomeranz and Hahn currently sport ADPs outside the top 90 among starting pitchers — Poomeranz, 94th and Hahn, 114th — and I think both are in for a nice season in Oakland. Plus, we’re just warming up here…

2. In his age 23 season, Joc Pederson goes 23/23 or better

The Dodgers’ brass cleared a path for Joc Pederson to get more playing time and the rookie will make a splash in his first full season. Pederson has reached double digit homers and steals in each of his four seasons on the farm and the power output has increased nicely over that same time frame. It should be noted, however, that Pederson’s 33 dingers in ‘14 came in the PCL, a league notoriously friendly to hitters. The soon-to-be 23-year-old overcomes some early season strikeout struggles to hit 23 homers and swipe 23 bags with a .233 average or better.

3. Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna combine for 80/35

If the Marlins can lock in Marcell Ozuna to a long-term deal in the near future, this is going to be one heckuva outfield for years to come. Steamer thinks that the Marlins’ trio will get to 73/28 in ‘15 if all are healthy, but I see 80/35. Stanton needs to stay healthy, but should carry most of the homer production with Ozuna chipping in around 25. Yelich should be able to eclipse 20 swipes for the trio to lock down 80 dingers and 35 stolen bases.

4. Justin Upton hits a career high number of homers

Justin Upton’s move to San Diego lead some to believe that the left fielder will fail to produce the power numbers that he’s been able to in the past due to the park and ocean air. But Upton is in the final year of contract and is ready to get paid again, so he’ll have plenty of motivation to put a career high number of baseballs into the stands.

5. Anthony Rendon will not finish ‘15 as a top eight second or third baseman.

In Yahoo! leagues where Anthony Rendon is eligible at both second and third base, he finished 2014 as the second-highest ranked player at each of those positions, behind only Miguel Cabrera (3B) and Jose Altuve (2B). The National’s infielder is known to have had a few bumps and bruises during his young baseball career, but he managed to stay healthy enough to notch more than 600 plate appearances in ‘14, finishing just three stolen bases shy of a 20/20 season. Of the 21 homers that Rendon put in the stands, 12 were listed as “just enoughs” and three more were listed as “lucky,” so with a little wind blowing this way or that, those home run totals could slip. But Rendon’s ability to stay healthy is the chief concern. It’s mid-March and Rendon is currently down with a sprained MCL in his left knee, how long will this linger and will this be the only injury he suffers all season? We don’t know. We do know that each of the projection systems believe he should be able to log close to a 20/10 season if he earns 580+ ABs. I’m not sure that happens. And subsequently, I don’t believe Rendon finishes the ‘15 season as a top eight second or third baseman.

6. Kevin Gausman is a top 50 starting pitcher

I have Gausman ranked 46th among starting pitchers at the Fix, which may be a bit bullish on my end, but I believe those middle tiers of starting pitchers are larger and he has some of the offerings in place to make a significant jump in ’15. The Orioles’ starter shows great velocity on his fastball that sits around 95 mph, a fair changeup that comes in at 85 mph — a nice 10 mph difference between that and his fastball — and a splitter that dives into the plate at about 83 mph. The splitter is filthy, inducing whiffs about 23% of the time and holds opposing batters to an .087 ISO against it.

Gausman’s strikeout and walk rates both trended slightly in the wrong direction last season, but they weren’t too far off his career rates or league averages for starters. The former first round pick has the pedigree and most of the tools to be a top-50 fantasy pitcher and I think 2015 is the year in which he makes it happen.

7. Rougned Odor is a top 12 Second Baseman

In his first taste of action above the Double-A level, then 20-year-old Rougned Odor flashed a bit of power and speed (nine homers, six stolen bases) with a reasonable .259 average in 417 big league plate appearances. With Jurickson Profar out for the season, Odor should receive a full complement of at-bats and continue to grow at the keystone and with the lumber.

8. Albert Pujols hits 35 home runs for the first time as an Angel

Pujols is entering his age 35 season — a few years post-peak — and is on the heels of two consecutive sub-.200 isolated power and sub-30 homer seasons, the lowest marks of his career. He also set career lows in walks last season at 6.9% (BB%) and pounded the ball into the dirt a career high 45.7% (GB%) of the time, despite his overall plate discipline profile remaining relatively consistent with his career rates.

Just because recent production in the counting categories fails to resemble the Albert Pujolsian numbers of old we’ve seen over the years, doesn’t mean he’s no longer elite. It just means he’s mortal and coming back to earth. The days of .300, 40 homers and 100+ RBI are in the rearview, but a healthy Pujols gets to the 35 homer plateau for the first time as an Angel in 2015.

9. Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez will hit 70 a combined homers

Considering that as of today, just one of these bats is currently on Roster Resource’s projected Opening Day starting lineup for the Cubs, this could be considered bold. Maybe they even get to 75 depending on how quick — if at all — Javy Baez figures things out.

10. The San Diego Padres win the NL West

Yes, I’m out of my mind.