AL Starting Pitcher SwStk% Leaders

It’s still far too early to analyze a lot of the metrics we typically use to evaluate players. But underlying skills like SwStk% are meaningful more quickly than strikeout rate because the denominator increases faster. So let’s peruse the American League starting pitcher SwStk% leaderboard and discuss.

Are we sure we have appreciated what Shohei Ohtani has done enough? Yes, he’s already homered three times in just 19 at-bats and sports a .534 wOBA as a hitter. But his pitching has been just as insane as well. Forget the 2.08 ERA, who cares? Check out that eye-popping SwStk%! There’s no way he remains above 20% all season, but WOW. I bought him at auction in a keeper league for a good price and I’m real curious what he would fetch in return. I’d be too afraid to trade him though because I think he’ll remain dominant all season. It’s hard not to come away with that feeling after watching him pitch.

Fewer sinkers + more sliders is an easy formula to raise your SwStk% and that’s exactly the blueprint Gerrit Cole has followed.

So ya know how Dylan Bundy’s cutter is good? Wellllll, it’s been RIDIC this year, sporting a 37.3% SwStk%. That’s for realz. And his four-seamer’s SwStk% has also jumped. His cutter obviously can’t remain this insane all season, but he should have no problem getting his ERA below 4.00 for the first time. Not being an extreme fly baller will help.

Aside from health, the biggest question was whether Charlie Morton could sustain his fastball velocity spike. Guess what. He’s throwing even harder. Whiffs + grounders = dominance.

J.A. Happ has never posted a SwStk% above 9.6%, so he’s the first real surprise here. His pitch mix is essentially the same as always, but his velocity is up a smidge. All of his pitches (save for his rarely thrown curve) are sporting double digit SwStk% marks. That’s quite impressive. His four-seamer is at 19%!

It’s rather shocking to find Cole Hamels here given that all of his pitches have declined dramatically in velocity. I don’t know what to make of his strikeout outburst, as it’s paired with a terrible walk rate, and that velocity decline.

Reynaldo Lopez is a good example of betting on velocity. With a mid-90s fastball, he should have been in the double digit SwStk% level before. All three of his secondary pitches — slider, cutter, and change — have generated SwStk% of at least 15%. Fly balls and poor control are concerns, but he should handily beat his current RoS ERA projections.

Lance Lynn has always been fastball heavy, and this year is no different. But he’s swapped out his cutter for his curve. It’s an odd switch since his cutter has generated a SwStk% higher than the curve every season since 2013. All his SwStk% gains have come from his fastball (18% SwStk!), and that’s not going to last. I wasn’t a fan in the NL, and I’m even more pessimistic in the AL.

Tyler Skaggs is another breakout candidate uncovered from this leaderboard. He’s essentially fastball-curve ball, but all four of his pitches have generated double digit SwStk% marks. Nothing is sitting at an outlying mark, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility he can keep this up.