AL OF Stock Watch
Per usual on Mondays, here is the latest news on some of the American League outfield eligible players.
Bullish:
Colby Rasmus – As noted in the comment section of my last AL OF Tiered Update Ranking, Rasmus decided to go on a tear as soon as I dropped him down to tier eight. Over the past 14 days, Rasmus has a .320 average, three home runs, 10 runs and even eight RBI’s. The RBI production is surprising because over that same 14 day time span, he has hit from the number two spot eight out of twelve games. Rasmus has broken broken my heart in the past, but I might get sucked in his tools yet again. He is only owned in 40% of Yahoo! and 67% of ESPN leagues, go grab him while he is hot.
Mark Trumbo – I know it’s hard to be much more bullish on him but I can’t help it. I see him have another two home run game (not to mention two walks yesterday too) and I get that old fashioned warm feeling about him. He is now up to 14 homers on the year and has more RBI’s than the likes of Nelson Cruz, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira and Albert Pujols. Trumbo’s BABIP is still unreasonably high and that is inflating his numbers quite a bit, but his walk rate is up to 7.7%, almost double from last years 4.4%.
Kendrys Morales – Morales has had a nice set of games in the past two weeks. He is hitting a robust .361 with four dingers, eight runs and 11 RBI’s. With interleague once again in full swing it will be tough to find him steady playing time in the short term, but Albert Pujols did start at third base on Friday, giving Morales the ability to start at first. Sporadic first base playing time aside, Morales is going to be the DH for the foreseeable future. He is owned in a mere 68% of Yahoo! leagues and 69% of ESPN formats. I’d definitely pick him up if he is still out there.
Bearish:
Brett Garder – Gardner apparently suffered a set back in his rehab assignment and now his target return date is some time after the All-Star break. He was supposed to be on track to come back as soon as the interleague series against the Mets over this past weekend, but that clearly did not happen. With what looks like could be a full month before we see Gardner return to the Bronx, his ranking just took a major hit.
Marlon Byrd – Byrd was designated for assignment Saturday to make room for Daisuke Matsuzaka’s return. Byrd earned this, hitting .270/.286/.320 over 35 games with the Red Sox. Given the injury context of the Red Sox outfield, this move is a bit surprising. It is possible that we see Byrd in the major leagues once again, but his fantasy value has all but disappeared.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
You’re bearish on Byrd? Interesting.
Byrd isn’t on a team right now. If he gets picked by an AL team, what is his realistic best case scenario?
Sean was probably being sarcastic.
Swing and a miss on picking up written sarcasm by me then. Whoops!
Wouldn’t the Byrd demotion be seen as bullish on Crawford or Ellsbury? I know the Red Sox aren’t saying anything, but they must know that one of those two will come.
Wrong. Here I come.
Ryan is indeed on fire right now in AAA right now, but is he really pushing for a call-up? He only has 11 games under his belt so far this season over 3 levels.
I guess it can be inferred, but neither are particularly close to being back.
I heard Tim Kurkjian say just now that the Red Sox don’t expect Crawford or Ellsbury to be back until the All-Star break. July 1 was the best case scenario for Crawford but it didn’t sound too likely.
Byrd isn’t even low-hanging fruit, the apple has dropped. Downgrade a real commodity. Dare to be helpful.
Dare to be helpful.
Got it. Thanks for the feedback.
This is the second article I’ve read on RGs today that suggests getting a guy wile he’s “hot.” I’m a little surprised by this, has there been research to show that such a thing exists? I know that there was a study done in the NBA that showed whether a player had hit his previous shot or not had absolutely no statistical bearing on whether he would make his next one. While guys definitely have periods of more and less productivity, I sort of thought the concept of “being hot” as a predictor of future performance was largely bunk.
There was one on The Hardball Times a couple years ago that made for really great reading. I’m doing some googling to try and find it again.
Well, I’ve failed you. I do know that there is a great chapter in The Book about streaks. If nothing else, go buy that.
To answer you initial question: Yes, using the past 7 or 14 days performance as a predictor of future events is as you so accurately put it, bunk. However, the latest performance of any sample size should be included in the player’s true talent level. I see hot streaks as something to jump on and ride for a short time.
By definition, a streak is something that has a finite beginning and end. If you can grab the player in the midst of the streak and drop him before regression hits like a ton of bricks, you can gain a lot of counting numbers in a hurry. Obviously, the key is knowing who to pick up and when and then when or if to drop them. There are a lot of things that factor in, but any xBABIP or Bradley Woodrum’s excellent SsH calculator will be a huge help.
The Book concludes that a five game hot or cold streak, as well as a seven game hot or cold streak has very little predictive value. I agree that you should definitely read it. It is a bit in depth in math if you care to read the appendix but the topics explored are interesting, especially regarding the optimal lineup order.
Well I just sold high on Rasmus over the weekend, and ofcourse this article comes out on Monday. I’m tired of his hot/cold streaks anyway, and I had owned him in that league for far too long. Glad I’m done with him to be honest.
He is an especially streaky player.
To quote the great Kurt Vonnegut: “So it goes.”