AL OF Stock Watch

This is the first week where we’ll be highlighting and examining American League outfielders. We’ll look at a few early risers and fallers today.

Bullish:
Josh Willingham – So far “Compliant Pig” (kudos to Leopold Bloom of AthleticsNation for that one) has managed to stay healthy and produce healthily. Willingham’s 12 hits rank him in the top 5 of the AL and on top of that, he is currently tied for the AL lead in home runs. I wouldn’t expect this kind of production all year, but given that he set a career high in homers last year despite playing in another pitchers park, Willingham clearly hasn’t lost any power to age. He is looking quite good thus far.

Austin Jackson – I still remain a bit skeptical of his newfound plate discipline, as it takes about 200 PA to accurately gauge a new found approach. That being said, I was too low on his ability to merely steal bases and score runs. In hindsight, I think I undersold the value of him hitting in front of Cabrera and Fielder. The next time the rankings roll out (the first Monday in May) it appears as though Jackson will be rewarded with a healthy jump.

David Murphy – As noted in the comments of my initial rankings, me leaving Murphy out of any tier was a considerable oversight. Now that Murphy is the apparently the full time starting LF for a powerful Rangers team, he will be sure to be a coveted fantasy option. If Murphy goes 15-10 with a .280 average for 550 PA, that is a useful 5th fantasy outfielder. He is another outfielder that should make a significant jump.

Alejandro De Aza – I was admittedly skeptical of De Aza coming into this year. I was worried that he may be exposed as a full time starter, and I still worry about that a bit. What I’m not worried about is his speed. Although he hasn’t set any goals for himself for 2012, between AAA and the majors he stole over 30 bags in 2011. De Aza already has one SB this year. Although his SB% isn’t spectacular, for standard 5×5 formats De Aza is looking quite appealing.

Bearish:
Eric Thames – Thames has not yet lived up to the Jays hopes so far. He has just one extra base hit in eight games thus far. With a capable outfielder in Rajai Davis sitting behind him on the depth chart, Thames will either hit and maintain his position as the starting left-fielder, or he will simply hit the bench. If Thames doesn’t ISO .170+, with his skill set, it is very hard to be a positive contribution overall. Keep an eye on his playing time, as he seems in danger of losing his job.

Vernon Wells – I was hoping for some sort of bounce back season for Wells, but I just don’t see it in the cards anymore. He does have a pair of homers already, so maybe it isn’t too late to turn things around just yet. However, he hasn’t drawn a walk yet and has struck out seven times. With Mike Trout breathing down his neck, Wells might not even figure to play against lefties in the near future.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Unfortunately it seems as though injuries are following Ellsbury. With any injury, the severity of the injury itself is the biggest question. There has been some speculation that Ellsbury could miss two months. This is the worst case scenario, but given the nature of this type of injury, six weeks of down time is being assumed. Six weeks best case versus two months worst case. If you tried to trade Ellsbury now, I wouldn’t blame you.