Advanced Dynasty Rebuild: Scarcity Wars

Zig when others zag. That could be the RotoGraphs motto. It’s certainly a theme I pursue with gusto. Fantasy advice tends to fit in a one-size-fits-all vehicle. Articles haven’t learned to mutate to match their reader. I can tell you my ideas and strategies, but it’s up to you to decide when to apply them or twist them to your own devious needs.

Recently, I wrote about using major league talent to effect a rebuild in a deep dynasty setting. Traditionally, rebuilding is done by rostering as many top prospects as possible. Sometimes, too many teams are rebuilding at once, making fringy major leaguers with breakout potential the much more affordable asset class. In other words, try to find the next Jose Bautista, Ben Zobrist, or J.D. Martinez rather than Mike Trout. Today, I’ll add a useful tactical wrinkle to the plan.

Those tasty top prospects are the ideal currency of a rebuilding owner. If prospect values begin to get out of control, then good, young major league players can fill the same need. Targets like Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado are much coveted. It’s difficult to trade for such talented players – every team would like to own them. Others like Rougned Odor or Addison Russell might be a little easier to acquire, but the same caveats apply. You’ll still need valuable bullets and serious leverage to swing a trade.

If you’re going the pure prospect rebuild approach, you’re basically shutting down the trade market as a means to improve. Once you trade away your major league talent, you’re done for the season. Contending teams shouldn’t be interested in trading a great prospect for a couple good ones. Rebuilding teams usually disdain challenge trades. You may occasionally have an early call up before your roster is ready who you want to sell high. In general, you’re in long-term wait-and-see mode.

When the prospect route is off the table, you’ll need to be on top of your trade game. That means finding players who are valuable to contenders. You’ll have the most leverage with them when they come to you out of desperation.

In my dynasty league, hitting prospects are coveted by everyone while only a few of the best pitching prospects are on rosters. To give you an idea, here are some of the guys you probably haven’t heard of who Chad and I drafted – Joshua Lowe, Jamie Westbrook, and Jhailyn Ortiz. These are all hitting prospects, and there is a decent chance we can use them in a trade for an upgrade or find a reason to keep them. Conversely, we just took our first pitching prospect, Triston McKenzie, in the 14th round (we keep 28 and have a 17 round draft).

Many of the owners in our league are rightfully wary about pitching prospects. They bust a lot. There’s a chance we’re too wary. Should a rebuilding team in our league load up on pitching prospects? Probably not. First, there is the aforementioned bust risk. Even rebuilding teams shouldn’t want to use their valuable keeper slots on a future UCL tear. And if the rest of our league undervalues pitching prospects, then they simply aren’t good trade assets. Perceived value is important.

In a 20 team league, scarcity should come into play. The distribution of skill based players like catcher, middle infield, and closer can be lumpy. That can exacerbate the pain of other owners when one of their starters hits the disabled list.

For example, one team owns four second quality basemen (Jose Altuve, Odor, Brian Dozier, Joe Panik). To play all four, he’ll have to use both his DH spots on a traditionally low offense position. He may do that, or he may just hold onto the depth. This team is a top contender, so they’ll be wary about any trade with a close rival.

His depth got me thinking about creating scarcity at a position. A rebuilding team may not have access to Altuve or Odor, but they certainly have a chance to snag the next Dozier or Panik off the scrap heap. Pile up four or five of them and competitive teams notice. When Robinson Cano hits the skids, you’ll get a call.

Creating artificial scarcity requires patience. It’s the kind of strategy you fall into through circumstance rather than grand design. Usually, talent arrives on your roster at different times. When Dozier first started hitting, Panik wasn’t even an afterthought for dynasty owners (maybe not the best example). Teams are going to ask about Dozier, and you should seriously consider their offers.

Remember the lesson of Ruben Amaro Jr. However reviled he was as a GM, he did one thing right – he set an ask, and he stuck to it. He knew Cole Hamels had to be traded for about a year and a half before the deal with the Rangers was executed. He didn’t deal with the first engaged owner. He didn’t deal with the first, best offer. He waited until he got his way.

You don’t actually need to be the team to create the scarcity. Let’s say the above referenced owner won’t trade one of his four second basemen to a contender. Maybe you have Kolten Wong. You can still take advantage of the scarcity to your benefit.

As a rebuilding team, you have a few key sales lines. Here are some of my favorites:

1. A trade with me does not help your rivals – it’s pure gain for you.
2. Your rival desperately needs Player X. Want to bid him up?
3. Your rival is offering X and Y, but I prefer your Z.

You’ll notice a theme. You’re playing the role of auction house, pitting all of the contenders against one another. There’s no need to be coy about it either, it’s just business. The goal is to leverage your way to the best possible offer for your player. If the market for that type of player is also scarce, you’ll have even more leverage. And if you feel as though the offers come up short, you’re under no obligation to sell.