Adrian Gonzalez’s Power Outage
When I published our updated first base tier rankings last week, I mentioned that Adrian Gonzalez had hit just 13 homers in his previous 478 plate appearances dating back to last year. That stretch is now up to 509 plate appearances, not all that far off from a full season’s worth of playing time. Considering that Gonzalez is in his prime (turned 30 two days ago) and moved out of Petco Park and into Fenway Park last year, the recent lack of power is a bit troubling.
The first red flag that comes to mind is his right shoulder — the power shoulder for left-handed hitters — which was surgically repaired (torn labrum) just prior to his trade to the Red Sox. Gonzalez admitted to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that his shoulder was feeling weak and tired last September, but he recently told Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe that he’s healthy now…
Gonzalez also said he is fully healthy for the first time in several years. He had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder after the 2010 season and felt the residual effects all last season.
“I had to have a bunch of cortisone shots and I had tendinitis and all sorts of stuff going on [last season]. It’s all in the past now,’’ Gonzalez said. “It’s 100 percent now. My shoulder is 100 percent.’’
The biggest change in Adrian’s performance last year came in his ability to hit the ball in the air, which may or may not be tied to the shoulder fatigue. We really don’t know. His day-by-day batted ball profile shows that his ground ball drop jumped to over 50% a few weeks into the season and essentially remained there…
The batted ball profile has been all over the map in the early going of 2012, but that’s to be expected after only 30 games. BIS data can be a little sketchy when it comes to balls on the fly ball/line drive bubble, but a ground ball is a ground ball and it’s impossible to hit the ball out of the park when you’re beating it into the grass. Let’s take a look at Gonzalez’s spray chart during this 509 plate appearances stretch with some help from Texas Leaguers…
First of all, teams should be shifting their infielders over to the second base side of the bag whenever Gonzalez is at the plate. The guy has a reputation as an opposite field hitter, but not when he puts the ball on the ground. Secondly, that opposite field power hasn’t been there over these last 509 plate appearances. Granted, four homers the other way during that time is more than most players will hit in a three-year span, but we’re talking about a guy that led baseball in opposite field homers (48) during his final three years with San Diego. That’s nearly 50% of his total homerun output during that time.
Perhaps the Green Monster is actually hurting Gonzalez rather than helping him, at least in terms of over-the-fence power. Maybe he’s hit some lasers the other way that would have cleared the wall by a few rows in other parks but hit off the top of the wall in Fenway, resulting in two bases instead of four. I don’t have any evidence to back that up, it’s just a theory. It is worth noting that Gonzalez has just a .101 ISO against left-handed pitchers during his homer drought, well below his career .164 ISO vs. LHP. CC Sabathia, David Price, and other AL East southpaws probably have a little something to do with that.
There’s really no obvious answer for Gonzalez’s recent decline as a power hitter. He says his shoulder isn’t bothering him and we have no reason not to believe him, though players do like about injuries basically all the time. Gonzalez remains tremendously productive overall — .308/.391/.460 during this admittedly arbitrary same of 509 plate appearances — but as a top tier fantasy first baseman, he’s got to hit for power. There are no exceptions; batting average and RBI only go so far. Gonzalez plays in a favorable hitter’s park and has a great lineup around him, so the RBI and runs scored opportunity will be plentiful. He just needs to start driving the ball over the fence again, because both Red Sox fans and fantasy owners are starting to get a little frustrated.
Side Note: I wrote this post about Giancarlo Stanton’s power outage last week, and he went on to hit five homers in his next seven games. You’re welcome in advance, Red Sox fans.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
Thank you for the article. Doesn’t really give any answers but at least you raised the question.
Mike, you mentioned the wall hurting his over-the-fence production. I watch the Sox regularly, and while I can’t back this up with stats either, I know that Gonzo feels like he’s at his best when he’s going oppo. He’s a doubles machine off the wall, his gap power looks like it’s still there. In 2011 17 of his 27 HRs came on the road, he only hit 10 at Fenway, which suppresses HRs to LHHs. Most likely you’re spot on that his HR production is down because of the wall. It took him a while to get his power stroke last year too, he’s still got 30+ in him if his shoulder is fully healthy.
Maybe I am the idiot here but I’ll shoot anyway.
Are there metrics, or information available that tracks bat speed? I would think bat speed is the root for power (outside of squaring up the ball).
Assuming he is squaring up the ball, and eliminating humidity, temp, wind, we may be able say if his power is down for real, or just dumb luck with batted ball types etc…
Hmm never heard of it but I know little. Is there a bat speed metric? That would be almost as awesome as a bat signal.
So, no bat speed data, but to get an idea of a player’s increase or decline in raw power, I look at the distance they hit fly balls and home runs.
http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/battedballdist.php
Here is Gonzalez’s numbers over the last 3 years:
Year: Fly Ball and Home Run Distance
2010: 301 ft
2011: 292 ft
2012: 271 ft
according to baseballheatmaps.com those distances are measured to where the fielder fields the ball, not where the ball lands or is caught. So, a ball that would otherwise have flown 375 feet, but hits the green monster and is picked up by the OF, say at 300 feet, is recorded as hit 300 feet and isn’t a true measure of Gonzalez’s raw power.
I don’t know how many balls this would apply to, but if using thease distances as a measure of his raw power, there would be a distortion that should be accounted for.
Good call, Jamie. I believe the Green Monster had a lot to do with his decrease in homeruns but he was probably driving fly balls the same distance. His first season an average of 292 feet shows why he had so many more doubles and a better average. This season, an additional 20 foot difference on his flyball/homerun distance(in the same field)probably means something.
Last year, he did only have 1 homerun in April with 105 at-bats. This year he had 2 in 85 at-bat, but in May he was went on a power rampage with a third of his homeruns and 31 RBI. This year he hasn’t hit one and only has 4 RBI in 11 games.
Seems like the straightforward answer would be that he is not as healthy as he suggests and he may have entered the decline phase a tad early because of his shoulder. That seems like a very plausible answer to me. Also, I think potential power increases upon moving to the AL were probably a bit overstated considering he was going to be facing better competition despite his move to a more favorable park.
I didn’t necessarily expect 30+ home runs from him considering his shoulder surgery and a move to the AL. Is it unreasonable going forward indefinitely now? Seems likely.
The awesome “Adrian Gonzalez Evolution” articles this winter described a seemingly conscious effort to target the Monster. And last year, even without homers, he had high wOBA going the other way. But this year, not so much. Perhaps pitchers have adjusted?
Time for him to evolve again and start pulling the ball for greater distance!
I hope your magic works on Gonzalez. I have both Adrian and Stanton on my team, so my thanks to you.
Maybe some of it can be attributed to his appearance in the HR derby last year? He hit only 1 HR in 36 games after the derby and also 5 of his homers after the All-Star break were in a three game stretch against the Rangers in Arlington from August 23-25.
The Derby Curse!!! Now there’s a topic for you, FG!
Can someone write some more articles like this about Pujols? I’ve got him on my team and I need him to start hitting…
pujols bad. need hit better. unjinxed!
what do you think about trading Pujols for Gonzalez straight up?
I am a huge Braves fan and I watched Jason Heyward go through the same power outage last year. Heyward ran into the wall catching a flyball and partially tore his labrum. He came back too early and couldn’t turn on the ball anymore. He couldn’t catch up to fastballs and left-handers owned him. He started pounding the ball into the ground and everyone had given up on him.
Well, he is healthy now and back to his old form. You know, the future HOF that everyone had predicted until his injury-riddled performance last year. It looks like Gonzalez suffered some of the same fate the second half of last season as his shoulder tired. If he is healthy, then hopefully this year is just an abberation and he starts pounding the ball again. But, it seems to me that he is still bothered by the shoulder and may disappoint.