ADP Crowdsourcing: Adrian Gonzalez
When I first wrote this, Gonzalez was still on the road to being a Red Sox. Then, I edited it when the deal fell through, and again when the deal ended up getting done. However, the question set I had when the deal fell through will lead to an interesting discussion, so I’ll keep it up. The first question assumes Gonzalez plays for the Red Sox (which he now does), while the second one assumes he is still on the Padres. That way we can gauge how far owners expect his stock will rise. We’re also going to use “pick” instead of “round” this time, so we’ll see how it goes. Hope it’s not to complicated.
Due to recent developments, it feels like my hand has been forced and we have to crowdsource Adrian Gonzalez. Playing for the San Diego Padres, Gonzalez has played at least 160 games in each of the past four seasons, making him one of (if not) the most consistent and low-risk picks in fantasy baseball.
I’m not going to get super detailed into his park factors here, because this is not the place for it. However, it’s pretty simple to think about it. Gonzalez slugged over .500 with at least 30 homers each of the past four seasons, and he was playing in Petco. David Ortiz slugged over .525 last year, and he was playing in Fenway. Which one do you think has more power right now? Thought so. Is it possible that Gonzalez could really slug close to .600, .650, or even .700 in Boston? There’s a chance, albeit a small one, and the move from the NL West to AL East will hurt him a bit.
So, how much help can a top-30 fantasy option really get by moving to a (far) better situation? Probably quite a bit. While this could propel him all the way to a late first round pick, I don’t think it will. But, that’s for you to decide, not me (all our votes count equally, you know).
Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. This time around, we’re using pick number instead of round, and we’ll see if this works a little better for top players. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
8 and 19 were my picks.
10 and 15 – I think he is still going to be underrated, but people will know him a bit better.
The trade makes him a clear favorite to be drafted ahead of the usual second tier of 1b – Howard, Tex, Fielder – but I don’t think fantasy owners will be ready to put him in the Pujols/Votto class quite yet. In ‘normal’ leagues, he shouldn’t be higher than pick #6 ever but shouldn’t fall below 14.
Forgot M. Cab in tier 1. I think the perception of 1B in 2011 will be that it’s even deeper than usual. Because of that, I think there will be a slight bit of a downshift in the drafting of all non-Pujols 1B’s. Also, because this trade is happening in December, I think the hype will wear off a bit by draft day. I think we’re looking at an ADP of early-to-mid second round.
Whoops absolutely correct. I’d still take Cabrera first, but A-Gon could follow closely.
For what it’s worth, I considered Cabrera to be in his own class below Pujols/Votto but above the others. Now I’d say A-Gon joins him there.
I can see him going late first round, especially if you have some Red Sox fans in your draft. I would say average probably 16 – 18.
12 and 20
I went 12 & 25.
At .300/30/100, he’s solidly in that pack of 1B with Fielder, Teixier, Howard, etc. I think the move bumps his projection up to something like .310/35/120, which puts him in the Votto & Cabrera territory and possibly ahead of them.
I agree with where you’re placing him, but I think you’re still underrating him. His last three years have been as follows:
.279/36/119
.277/40/99
.298/31/101
Those are all in SD, obviously. His HR numbers are going to go up significantly just by virtue of moving out of Petco, nevermind that he is moving to a place suited for his swing (his SLG to LF is .968, per Verducci’s article – that’s a ton of 2B/HR over the Monster). Also, he’ll have significantly more RBI chances. The Red Sox had a signficantly higher OBP as a team (.339 vs. 317) least year, despite seeing Youk, Pedroria, Martinez, Cameron, and Ellsbury all miss significant time. As such, it’s not surprise that the Red Sox significantly outscored the Padres (818 to 665).
If you consider all of that together, I see no reason why he doesn’t go .290/40/120 minimum, with growth for more. Remember, we’ve never seen Adrian in good lineup and a good park for 81 games.
Zach – On Bruce just for a second, where do you think he’ll hit in the Reds lineup in ’11? Any chance to move into the cleanup spot? I can’t see his numbers changing significantly if he’s hitting 5th or 6th for most of the year. Thanks.
My guess is he bats 5th, and that’s just fine with me.
what about robinson cano for one of these? his breakout the last two years and the new spot in the order can change things.
Everybody is undervaluing AGon. In the last 4 seasons, he has averaged 22.5 homers on the road. Thats leads baseball. Last 2 seasons he has had a road OPS of 1010. That is second in baseball. Throw in the fact Fenway is perfect for him, plus guys on base like he has never seen before and my projection if he is healthy is .310-45-135. I would draft only Pujols ahead of him if he looked healthy.
1B is a very deep position, so I’d still put him in the 2nd – 3rd round of picks. 14 & 28.
In my experience, every year that Gonzalez has been picked in my league, he’s been someone’s 2nd first basemen. Last year someone had him and Pujols (picked 1 & 28 respectively – not especially a bright move). I think he moves up to the top of round 2. Pujols, Votto, and Miggy go first, but he may beat out Morneau and others as he moves to Boston. I am a bit worried about his injury though.
“and the move from the NL West to AL East will hurt him a bit.”
I am questioning this statement a bit. Granted there are some amazing southpaws in this division, but he does get away from some of the games best arms in the NL West and the differences in the parks he will play in, for me, this makes the move to the AL East as a help not a hindrance. The Giants pitching is better than any of the teams in the AL East and the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Ubaldo Jimenez will now be avoided. Granted Colorado and Arizona are great hitters parks, but Los Angeles, Petco and San Francisco are all extreme pitchers parks.