Actual Useful Advice From Two Drafts

Over the past two nights, I completed another two drafts – the 12-team MLBTR League and the 14-team experimental Fire and Forget. The following is a collection of player picks and strategic advice for unique formats. Let’s start with the easy one…

MLBTR League

Last season was my first in the MLBTR league. As you might expect, it’s entirely populated with friends and employees of MLBTR. While many of them aren’t technically fantasy experts, there’s no questioning their baseball knowledge. This league was harder than some of my industry formats last year.

Settings include standard deep rosters (2 C, 5 OF, etc.) with 6×6 roto scoring and just three bench. The additional categories are OPS and holds. We use a snake draft, and I had the first overall pick. I’m pretty sure I’ve never had the first pick in a real draft. Streaming is allowed.

I learned a few things last year. The shallow bench is a serious constraint in a league where you need six starting pitchers, three closers, and three setup men to compete in every pitching category. Last season, I ran away with most of the pitching stats, scoring 63 of 72 possible points. Unfortunately, my offense let me down. Trading Clayton Kershaw for Giancarlo Stanton three days prior to Stanton’s season-ending injury didn’t help, but it was probably on the difference between 4th and 5th place.

The real problem was that I devoted all of my bench resources into locking down pitching. The result was big deficits in my offense games played tallies. I often used my catcher slots as additional bench.

In 2015, I didn’t record a single hold (I had drafted Andrew Miller for my early holds source) through the All Star break, yet I eventually won the stat. Knowing I can address holds midseason and still score highly allowed me to alter my plan entering this draft. I focused on prioritizing six category offensive studs.

The first seven rounds included six outfield picks – Mike Trout, George Springer, A.J. Pollock, Jason Heyward, Yasiel Puig, and Michael Brantley. Chris Archer was the seventh guy. With the possible exception of Puig, all six should give me a strong offensive foundation. It also meant I couldn’t invest in later value picks at the position like Kevin Pillar.

Regarding Brantley specifically, reports on his recovery are very positive which has him moving up my draft boards. He was the 50th ranked player while playing through pain. I foresee a similar floor in 2016.

The next two picks went to Albert Pujols and Maikel Franco. The latter is another guy who is rapidly climbing my draft boards. With 30 home run power and a profile that reads like a poor man’s Edwin Encarnacion, he might be one of the most productive power hitters available after the 100th pick. The Phillies may not be an offensive force, but their cleanup hitter still has 85 to 100 RBI potential.

The rest of the draft went to balancing out my early picks. Catcher was filled with Yasmani Grandal and Francisco Cervelli. The middle infield will be doled out between Matt Duffy, Eugenio Suarez, Dustin Pedroia, and Ketel Marte. Duffy also provides third base depth. A value pick of Chris Carter hurts my average but helps the ol’ power numbers.

After Archer, I took a depth approach to the rotation. Jose Quintana is stable if unexciting. Steven Matz, Clay Buchholz, Jason Hammel, and Yordano Ventura all have upside. I also snagged a DL-bound Eduardo Rodriguez. I took a shot on Aroldis Chapman after he floated on top of the board for awhile. I also added Jeurys Familia, Jason Grilli, and Tony Zych.

Take Aways

• Don’t forget league history. That’s how you end up fighting a war in Russian winter.
• I really like Brantley and Franco.
• Take the best player on the board (i.e. six category OFers) rather than reaching for a skills position.

Fire and Forget

This is a complicated league. Rather than explain it again, here is the announcement post. In short, we draft a team and then we check back in October to see who won. We use FanGraphs WAR for scoring. The introduction of UZR and base running really morphed player values.

To add further pain, I reduced our auction budgets to $150. The idea was to do an early rounds auction and a late rounds snake. And that’s basically how it worked out.

I went in with a plan (duh). Knowing that tools like Steamer and out Depth Charts projections would be leaned upon for building values, I targeted players I believed Steamer to be misrepresenting. That wasn’t exactly the case with Paul Goldschmidt or Starling Marte – my first two picks for a total of $47. However, $19 Springer has plenty of ceiling beyond his projection.

Several of us felt that players were overpriced in this draft, but I was prepared for this eventuality. It’s essential to snag a few top guys, even if they’re well above your value. Passing on the Grade A names won’t result in Grade B bargains – they’ll be overpriced too! Bargains don’t crop up until much later in the draft.

I also nabbed a value pick in $18 Miguel Cabrera. There’s a lot of pressure on his bat to perform. Returning to Marte and Springer, they’re capable of earning value defensively and on the base paths. In this way, the league was right to take it easy when bidding on Miggy.

Well-round contributions also informed my picks of Josh Harrison, Jake Lamb, Didi Gregorius, and Jung-ho Kang. They all have the potential to be solid across the board. I once again picked Brantley.

My strategy with pitchers was strangely similar to the MLBTR League. While I would have liked to invest in a trio of aces, pitchers implode too often for my liking. I anchored my rotation with Carlos Carrasco – a player WAR loves. Then I snagged an upside play in Jose Berrios along with Andrew Cashner, Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Aaron Nola, Tyler Duffey, and Chris Bassitt. They all project to be about 2.5 WAR players. Hopefully a few of them outperform.

Socrates Brito has become an interesting flier. I Boldly Predicted he would be a top 60 outfielder, but I see even more upside in a WAR format. The potential for +15 defense, positive base running, and a league average bat could easily translate into four WAR. As my fifth outfielder (only the top three are scored), he’s a pure upside play.

Take Aways

• Find an unique approach when you know your leaguemates are all using the same underlying values.
• Even if top players are overpriced, pay for a few of them.
• By saving a couple dollars, I ensured I could get my favorite inventory picks.